A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Perhaps we should have a thread that says Realistic Look at the Future.

    According to BB sources, FOX is about to sign a deal with the Dodgers at $6-7B for their TV rights. That is $240M/year. The Rangers have negotiated a similar deal to start the year after next. The Dodgers will blow right through the payroll tax limit at this point.

    The Yankees always turn a profit, so after they control their payroll for a year, I expect that they will be bidding up players again. How will the Red Sox and NESN fare? It costs money to keep NESN going, while a huge contract from FOX costs nothing to maintain infrastructure. Will RS invest NESN profits in players?

    Contracts will get even crazier because the money is there. Stanton will come up for free agency in a few years and make 7/210 easily. We already talked about 3/90 for Hamilton!!

    Problem is that I can't fault the Dodgers for investing in their team. At least the management realizes that they are in a big market and are willing to field the best team possible. Better than the Marlin philosophy.....

    [/QUOTE]

    It certainly looks like the direction of MLB is changing big time. It's hard to imagine the Sox not being able to keep up.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    probably, henry and co are smart people.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The Dodgers own their parking lot also if I remember correctly. And it's huge. They probably make 4-5 times as much on their parking revenues as the Rays make in admission tickets. It's a game changer.

    I really think the RS are kust trying to put some kind of competitive team on the field in 2013 and hold onto their fan base until 2014 / 2015 when the cavalry arrives in Bogaerts , Bradley...etc.

    They DO NOT want to be 15 games out at the all star break. It's real bad for business. 

    They will sign Sanchez IMO. Even if it costs over $90 mil. That's about it though I think. It of course could be a different starting pitcher but I think that shoe drops in the next week or so.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Dodgers own their parking lot also if I remember correctly. And it's huge. They probably make 4-5 times as much on their parking revenues as the Rays make in admission tickets. It's a game changer.

    I really think the RS are kust trying to put some kind of competitive team on the field in 2013 and hold onto their fan base until 2014 / 2015 when the cavalry arrives in Bogaerts , Bradley...etc.

    They DO NOT want to be 15 games out at the all star break. It's real bad for business. 

    They will sign Sanchez IMO. Even if it costs over $90 mil. That's about it though I think. It of course could be a different starting pitcher but I think that shoe drops in the next week or so.

    [/QUOTE]

    I could see that happening. I like Sanchez, but would not go over $64M/4, unleSS WITH INCENTIVES.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The market for top starters is pretty darn expensive. Greinke's deal was expensive and Henry's group has thrown a bunch of money around recently. If they gave SV that kind of money they will do some things which may look unconventional for good starters also. If they get Sanchez they actually have a chance to make the playoffs IMO. If not it will be real tough sledding.

    It's tough to see Napoli as a #4 hitter on a Redsox team but that is our reality at this point. Unless they have a lot of confidence in Middlebrooks being ready for that slot already. This team needs all the help it can get.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Lester 

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    Lackey

    Morales?

    Who am I missing. It's 4AM here and I don't want to wake up enough to think!

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    How about the Rays deal for Will Myers? Those guys know when to pull the trigger for elite farm talent. I like that deal for them. That's the kind of deal we should be making probably at this point but we didn't have the starting pitching talent available. The Rays keep doing it with smoke and mirrors

     

    ....as long as Price is still on that team.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Lester 

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    Lackey

    Morales?

    Who am I missing. It's 4AM here and I don't want to wake up enough to think!

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I keep asking myself the same thing.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about the Rays deal for Will Myers? Those guys know when to pull the trigger for elite farm talent. I like that deal for them. That's the kind of deal we should be making probably at this point but we didn't have the starting pitching talent available. The Rays keep doing it with smoke and mirrors

     

    ....as long as Price is still on that team.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    i caught that last night before i turned in. crazy. he could turn out to be a thorn in our sides for years to come

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about the Rays deal for Will Myers? Those guys know when to pull the trigger for elite farm talent. I like that deal for them. That's the kind of deal we should be making probably at this point but we didn't have the starting pitching talent available. The Rays keep doing it with smoke and mirrors

     

    ....as long as Price is still on that team.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    i caught that last night before i turned in. crazy. he could turn out to be a thorn in our sides for years to come

    [/QUOTE]


    Or he could turn out to be the next Clint Hurdle. Pretty big gamble by the Rays I think.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about the Rays deal for Will Myers? Those guys know when to pull the trigger for elite farm talent. I like that deal for them. That's the kind of deal we should be making probably at this point but we didn't have the starting pitching talent available. The Rays keep doing it with smoke and mirrors

     

    ....as long as Price is still on that team.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    i caught that last night before i turned in. crazy. he could turn out to be a thorn in our sides for years to come

    [/QUOTE]


    Or he could turn out to be the next Clint Hurdle. Pretty big gamble by the Rays I think.

    [/QUOTE]


    DEFINITELY! obviously i would hope he turns out to be a bust but it would be just the rays luck that he turns out to be another longo..

    i've been waiting for them to fade away since 08 and this could be a turning point for their franchise or the start of a dynasty.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The market for top starters is pretty darn expensive. Greinke's deal was expensive and Henry's group has thrown a bunch of money around recently. If they gave SV that kind of money they will do some things which may look unconventional for good starters also. If they get Sanchez they actually have a chance to make the playoffs IMO. If not it will be real tough sledding.

    It's tough to see Napoli as a #4 hitter on a Redsox team but that is our reality at this point. Unless they have a lot of confidence in Middlebrooks being ready for that slot already. This team needs all the help it can get.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd have prefered to give the money from Gomes and Victorino to Sanchez.

    Yes, Napoli as our #4 is scary. Maybe they will drop Pedey to #3.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Heck, bring up Bogaerts! Just kidding.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I'm just thinking I'd rather have these OF'er contracts

    Angel Pagan $40M/4

    Ryan Ludwick $15M/2

    Total: $55M / 6 years ($9.2M per year)

     

    than these...

    Victorino  $39M/3

    J Gomes   $10M/2

    Total: $49M / 5 years ($9.8M per year)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The market for top starters is pretty darn expensive. Greinke's deal was expensive and Henry's group has thrown a bunch of money around recently. If they gave SV that kind of money they will do some things which may look unconventional for good starters also. If they get Sanchez they actually have a chance to make the playoffs IMO. If not it will be real tough sledding.

    It's tough to see Napoli as a #4 hitter on a Redsox team but that is our reality at this point. Unless they have a lot of confidence in Middlebrooks being ready for that slot already. This team needs all the help it can get.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd have prefered to give the money from Gomes and Victorino to Sanchez.

    Yes, Napoli as our #4 is scary. Maybe they will drop Pedey to #3.

    [/QUOTE]


    SV

    pedey

    Ells

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm just thinking I'd rather have these OF'er contracts

    Angel Pagan $40M/4

    Ryan Ludwick $15M/2

    Total: $55M / 6 years ($9.2M per year)

     

    than these...

    Victorino  $39M/3

    J Gomes   $10M/2

    Total: $49M / 5 years ($9.8M per year)

    [/QUOTE]


    Last 4 seasons OPS.......

    Gomes----795
    Ludwick--763


    Last 3 seasons OPS.......

    Gomes----774
    Ludwick--759

    Last 2 seasons OPS.......

    Gomes-----787
    Ludwick---768

    Gomes 32 and Ludwick 34. Gomes 5 million. Ludwick 7.5 million. Hmmmm. You sure about that? Shoot, I didn't even have to mention the robe.

     

     

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Where is Fivekatz?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm just thinking I'd rather have these OF'er contracts

    Angel Pagan $40M/4

    Ryan Ludwick $15M/2

    Total: $55M / 6 years ($9.2M per year)

     

    than these...

    Victorino  $39M/3

    J Gomes   $10M/2

    Total: $49M / 5 years ($9.8M per year)

    [/QUOTE]


    Last 4 seasons OPS.......

    Gomes----795
    Ludwick--763


    Last 3 seasons OPS.......

    Gomes----774
    Ludwick--759

    Last 2 seasons OPS.......

    Gomes-----787
    Ludwick---768

    Gomes 32 and Ludwick 34. Gomes 5 million. Ludwick 7.5 million. Hmmmm. You sure about that? Shoot, I didn't even have to mention the robe.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah, I'm 100% positive. Ludwick is pretty strong vs LHps and RHPs, unlike Gomes. With Gomes, we'll need to pay a strong hitter to play vs RHPs, so you have to figure in that cost too.

    I'm even more positive about Pagan over SV.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Where is Fivekatz?

    [/QUOTE]

    I hope he returns soon.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Fivekatz is great. He's probably just taking a break. He knows he's missed.

    I looked at the Rays situation regarding starting pitching a few minutes ago. Man, even on the farm they still have some studs ready to come up. What other team could lose 2 starting level pitchers and seemingly barely miss them? They just are a well run franchise. If they had some cash they would be a juggernaut.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    What all this comes down to is we need some guys to really step up if this team has a chance at all next year. Maybe a Pedroia and Ellsbury can regain their form hitting in front of Ortiz who finds a way to have another great season. Maybe Napoli can put up a .280 average with 30 HR. I'll take that scenario in a heartbeat. And Middlebrooks gives us roughly what he gave us last year. 2-3 starters come through big ( heh, it could happen ) and the pen does as expected. 

    And we make lemonade from lemons. We just need at least some real good fruit in this mix. On most teams that one or 2 middle of the order studs really set the table for everything else in that offense. Will they move Ellsbury to the 3rd slot? A strong case could be made for that, especially if Iglesias is at #9. I think now is the time for that transition but who would the lead off guy be then? SV seems to be an option.

    Ellsbury remains the key to the offense, IMO, and Buchholz, Lester, Lackey need to come through in the most likely scenario of this team having a chance to make the playoffs. It's a challenge but it is possible. Who knows, maybe De La Rosa is as advertised. If he steps up similar to what Hellickson and Moore have done for Tampa, we have a shot guys.

    And if we can maintain the dream for another year we do have some major talent coming up which can rejuvenate this franchise. 

    I do think we overpaid for SV in a major way but the guy is a winner and he might still have some contributions to offer. We seem to really value RF defense and with good reason IMO. Crawford was supposed to really help our OF defense overall but we could quickly see that was not going to happen. They are still trying in that regard. SV fixes the defensive issue but will he provide much offense? 

    It's tough to see how the SV deal happens at that cash level unless 1) they plan to trade Ellsbury and rebuild with prospects ( little indication of that to me right now ) or 2) they need a lead off guy and want to move Ellsbury up in the lineup to the 3 slot.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I haven't had time to really think about this so I'm sure this can be fine tuned. SV has acute splits but he appears to be a solid lead off guy against LH pitching. To me he should lead off against LH starters. Great OBP and solid base running skills and it allows us to move Ellsbury up to the 3rd slot.

    Look at a recent fangraphs article excerpt regarding SV:

    "it turns out that Victorino has not only hit left handed pitchers better in his career with a .301/.373/.508 line, but on balls pulled to left field, he has posted a .408/.405/.800 line over 461 at bats."

    SV could really help this team as a doubles and triples threat. Knocking balls off the wall and dropping it into RF and running like crazy. He is not a player who can carry a team but against LH starters, I'd bat this guy leadoff in a heartbeat.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Although I don't think this is a high obp team, I do think this team is optimized for Fenway. I'm ok with that. Especially this year. We are trying to be competitive until the cavalry arrives in 2 years. We can't transform this into a high obp team this winter. Not going to happen. So we are at least optimizing our ability to win at home.

    This team is going to have more pop than people think. Especially doubles and triples pop but pop overall should be near the top in the league.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I haven't had time to really think about this so I'm sure this can be fine tuned. SV has acute splits but he appears to be a solid lead off guy against LH pitching. To me he should lead off against LH starters. Great OBP and solid base running skills and it allows us to move Ellsbury up to the 3rd slot.

    Look at a recent fangraphs article excerpt regarding SV:

    "it turns out that Victorino has not only hit left handed pitchers better in his career with a .301/.373/.508 line, but on balls pulled to left field, he has posted a .408/.405/.800 line over 461 at bats."

    SV could really help this team as a doubles and triples threat. Knocking balls off the wall and dropping it into RF and running like crazy. He is not a player who can carry a team but against LH starters, I'd bat this guy leadoff in a heartbeat.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I like the idea of SV at #1 vs LHPs, but he should be on the bench vs most RHPs or bat 8th or 9th. He's like a reverse CC.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    This team has coninually relied on the hope that all our starters will have career average or better seasons at the same time. It just never seems to happen that way with this team. Injuries, pitchers like Beckett with their odd/even year proclivities, and changing pitching coaches hasn't helped.

    Here are the pitchers we have signed or traded for and started over the past few years:

    2012: 

    Cook- 18

    Morales-9 (traded for in 2011)

    Stewart-2

     

    2011: 

    A Miller 12

    E Bedard 8

     

    2010:

    Lackey  33

     

    2009:

    Penny  24

    Smoltz  8

    Byrd  6 (was here the first time in 2008)

     

    2008:

    Colon  7

    Byrd  8

     

    2007:

    Dice-K 32

    Schilling 24 (was here in 2006)

    Tavarez  23 (was here in 2005)

     

    2006:

    Clement

    Snyder

    D Wells

    DiNardo

    J Johnson

    Jarvis

     

    Since Dice-K in 2007, only Lackey was a serious attempt to upgrade our rotation from outside the system.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    This team has coninually relied on the hope that all our starters will have career average or better seasons at the same time. It just never seems to happen that way with this team. Injuries, pitchers like Beckett with their odd/even year proclivities, and changing pitching coaches hasn't helped.

    Here are the pitchers we have signed or traded for and started over the past few years:

    2012: 

    Cook- 18

    Morales-9 (traded for in 2011)

    Stewart-2

     

    2011: 

    A Miller 12

    E Bedard 8

     

    2010:

    Lackey  33

     

    2009:

    Penny  24

    Smoltz  8

    Byrd  6 (was here the first time in 2008)

     

    2008:

    Colon  7

    Byrd  8

     

    2007:

    Dice-K 32

    Schilling 24 (was here in 2006)

    Tavarez  23 (was here in 2006)

     

    2006:

    Beckett

    Clement

    Snyder

    D Wells

    DiNardo

    J Johnson

    Jarvis

     

    Since Dice-K in 2007, only Lackey was a serious attempt to upgrade our rotation from outside the system.

     

     


    The Lackey attempt was legitimate, but just didn't work out right. Perhaps, that signing scared top management, but the fact remains: since the Dice-K signing in 2007, we have gone 5 seasons with just one bold move (Lackey). Our pitching has got worse and worse, but nothing has changed.

    Starter ERA/WHIP:

    2007: 4.21/1.300

    2008: 4.02/1.313

    2009: 4.63/1.412

    2010: 4.17/1.348

    2011: 4.49/1.367

    2012  5.19/1.417

    (Except for the 2009 blip, our WHIP has gotten worse every year since 2007, and our ERA had gotten a half a run worse each of the last 2 years.)

     

    Trying to change the rotation by obtaining better #5 type starters than what we had the year before will never work out, and we've actually failed at even improving our #5 often than not as well.

     

    It's not "all about pitching", but you can't finish in last place, have a starter ERA over 5.00, do nothing about fixing the rotation other than have Lackey return and expect to be highly competitive the next year. It's a fantasy.

     
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