A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    OK, I'm sticking with my own neanderthal plan--add one stud pitcher and position player to the best we had, Pedey, Papi, etc.,  mix in the young guys when they're ready, and try to improve as much as possible in 2013.  Please tell me why Anibal Sanchez at 5 X 15 or McCarthy at 2 X 13, both young and tested, wouldn't have been better than Dempster? (I don't see how he's going to improve our rotation getting twelve wins in the #5--Didn't Doobie do that last year?)  Not just better now but part of the future.  Also, I don't agree because the market's weak, there's not much out there.  Other teams are making some good moves.  OK, now that the Angel's have Hamilton, there's some talk they might want to trade Trumbo.  I think we should already have been and should now be going hard after someone like him.  I know this plan would have meant some loss in the minors, but don't we have about three third basemen and three catchers stacked up?  As well as Ells and maybe one of our best minor league pitchers? 

    I have always supported BC but I think this present course is very unimaginative and amounts to "watering the flowers and waiting for them to grow."  Waiting for the young guys is fine if you're in Pittsburgh or KC, but didn't we just lop about 250 million from the payroll?  I think a couple of judicious big contracts for young guys would be fine.  I keep thinking "This can't be it!"  What we're doing will make us better than last year (what wouldn't?) but will not move us to serious post season play IMO.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sanchez wanted to stay in detroit. Not sure we could count on McCarthy since hes never pitched a lot of innings in a year. Not a good year for pitchers IMO. Dempster at 2 years could work as a 4-5 until RDLR, Workman, Barnes, WEbster are ready. He can give us 200 IP, a good GB rate which will work for Fenway, and as long as we can get 180 IP, 12 wins and an era below 4.50, Im ok..

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

     [/QUOTE]

    How about if you already had a garage full of old cars that were not running too smoothly ? And some of your loyal customers were starting to complain about the deteriorating service ?

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree we needed a garage overhaul. But thats why we are adding lots of cars. Let me add one more silly analogy and say they are adding cars that won't catch fire in the garage and cause smoke damage to the other cars in the garage, especially the brand new 2014 B-Line models that are entering the garage.

     

     

     

    I guess I am trying to point out that baseball isn't basketball. One great player doesn't equal winning. The best pitcher[Pedro] and best hitter[Bonds] I have ever seen have one ring between them in about 40 chances. And that was when Pedro wasn't great anymore. Also, I don't even think Greinke or Hamilton are even in the top 15 players in the game. I think Hamilton has definately lost that new car smell. 

    I mentioned that we needed 25 cars. Actually, we played 57 players last year. One or even two guys not even in the top 15 players are not going be a huge difference.

    Although this can be misleading, Hamilton averaged just 4.2 WAR the last 2 years. The 6 potential Red Sox additions averaged 15.8 WAR. I do believe we win at least twice as many games with the guys we have added then simply adding Hamilton and the Gomez, Kalish, Lavarnway, and Aceves of the world. Probably 3 times.

    As for selling the moves to the fans, sure we could have bought the colorful antique sports car that won best in show 4 years ago and try to trick the fans into thinking that was going to dramatically improve our chances of winning. But it would have been phony.

    Instead we went the safer, more practical, strength in numbers route. And only winning will likely sell this stategy to the fans. I prefer the smart route to the phony route. I don't care how many tickets the team sells.

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    None of these signing really help us in 2014 and beyond.

    [QUOTE]

    They were not young, but most will help in 2014.

    Barely

     

     

     

     

    [QUOTE]

    Faced with viewing the totality of all the moves made so far, I'd have rather chosen plan B:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I was open to your plan B. However, I am very happy with what the Red Sox have done and prefer their plan instead.

    I disagree

     

    [QUOTE]

    4) Sign only younger FAs like B McCarthy, Pagan and a precious few others.

    [QUOTE]

     

    Pagan is not young. He is well over 31.

    By 5 months?

     

     

     [QUOTE]

    I recognize we are a better team than before the signings, but since I still see us as an under 1% chance to win it all, I think plan B was the better option.

     [QUOTE]

     

    Less then 1%? Disagree.

     Probably closer to 0 than 1. I was being generous.

     

    [QUOTE]

    1) Sign A sanchez, and Napoli.

    4) Have a top 4 or 5 chance to win in 2013, and still have some decent, but aging, players going into 2014 and beyond. 

    5) Fill in the bench with in-house or min wage players (Lava, Nava, Kalish, Linares, de la Rosa...)

    [/QUOTE]


    So Sanchez helps the Red Sox win more this year then Dempster, Victorino, Ross, Uehara, and Gomes? So much so he  takes us from less then 1% to top 4-5 chance?

    Yes, Sanchez will not be 80 in 2014.

    Sanchez would help us in 2013 and beyond due to his age... more so than Dempster. (The top 4-5 chance was with the plan of getting Hamilton and Greinke instead of this mish-mash).

     

    The Red Sox have added 6[if they all pass physicals] quality winning players with likely two more to go. I think adding 8 quality players[nearly a 3rd of a team] can dramatically change  a team for the better. Much more then one or two over rated stars can. I thnk the dynamics of this team are changing much more then people realise. All while not losing any picks or prospects so far.

     

    BTW, now that Sanchez has signed for 80 million, he likely would have cost 82+.

    OK, I had rea d 75/5. Point taken.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The off-season is not over yet....

    If we make a trade, I may raise the chance of us competing some.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ben and Co. had a plan and they are sticking to it. It involves changing a toxic clubhouse atmosphere and not giving out ridiculous contracts all while keeping their young talent.

    There wasnt a lot available in FA this year and looks to be about the same next year. They have improved more with these moves than they wouldhave just signing hamilton and Sanchez.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Plus, I haven't heard anything on no-trade clauses for these 2-3 yr deals. I know that it's usually included in larger contracts anyway. But a 3 yr deal could wind-up being a 1 1/2 - 2 yr deal, when considering future trades we have no idea of might take place. These contracts are written on paper, not stone. We don't know the future.  Just sayin'. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ben and Co. had a plan and they are sticking to it. It involves changing a toxic clubhouse atmosphere and not giving out ridiculous contracts all while keeping their young talent.

    There wasnt a lot available in FA this year and looks to be about the same next year. They have improved more with these moves than they wouldhave just signing hamilton and Sanchez.

    [/QUOTE]


    I just don't know that it is a good plan.  We are coming off a dismal season. If we have improved at all , it is only slightly.   Other teams are making major moves. It is hard to see how we are going to be competitive in 2013.  It is good that we are keeping our young talent. Let's just hope that the young talent is as good as some think they are. Just going by minor league stats , our prospects do not stand out from other teams.  Baseball is a very competitive business.  An awful lot of things are going to have to go right for this team to be able to compete with the best. We could be looking at a long season and a lot of unhappy campers.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ben and Co. had a plan and they are sticking to it. It involves changing a toxic clubhouse atmosphere and not giving out ridiculous contracts all while keeping their young talent.

    There wasnt a lot available in FA this year and looks to be about the same next year. They have improved more with these moves than they wouldhave just signing hamilton and Sanchez.

    [/QUOTE]

    Signing Hamilton and Sanchez was not my 1st. 2nd or 3rd choice, but it would have been better than what we did for 2 reasons:

    1) We'd have a better chance in 2013 at about the same cost.

    2) We'd have a better chance in 2014 and beyond (more important).

     

    You all know what my other top priorities were, so I won't go into them here.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to emp9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Plus, I haven't heard anything on no-trade clauses for these 2-3 yr deals. I know that it's usually included in larger contracts anyway. But a 3 yr deal could wind-up being a 1 1/2 - 2 yr deal, when considering future trades we have no idea of might take place. These contracts are written on paper, not stone. We don't know the future.  Just sayin'. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Fair enough. We may get a lot in return when trading these guys this July when we are down 15 by then.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ben and Co. had a plan and they are sticking to it. It involves changing a toxic clubhouse atmosphere and not giving out ridiculous contracts all while keeping their young talent.

    There wasnt a lot available in FA this year and looks to be about the same next year. They have improved more with these moves than they wouldhave just signing hamilton and Sanchez.

    [/QUOTE]

    Signing Hamilton and Sanchez was not my 1st. 2nd or 3rd choice, but it would have been better than what we did for 2 reasons:

    1) We'd have a better chance in 2013 at about the same cost.

    2) We'd have a better chance in 2014 and beyond (more important).

     

    You all know what my other top priorities were, so I won't go into them here.

    [/QUOTE]


    Those 2 moves would have filled 2 needs. we still needed a BU catcher, one more OF'er a 1b and bullpen arms.

    The Sox werent going to retool in one year. They will put a team on the field that will be competetive in 2013 and could surprise some. When healthy and not working under such a stressful atmosphere, I think this team is better than most here think.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know all these guys might not have signed with the Sox, even if we offered slightly more, but if we were going to spend this big this winter, I'd prefer to have done it this way:

    $76M/5 A Sanchez (~$15M/yr)

    $41M/4 A Pagan    (~$10M/yr)

    $16M/2 R Ludwick (~$8M/yr)

    $7M/1   M Reynolds ($7M/yr)

    $4.3M/1   K Uehara (~$4M/yr)

      Total: $45M/yr

    or

    sub Naps for Reynolds at $6M more a year.

       Total: $51M/yr (about what we spent already)

    [/QUOTE]


    Love guys who go coulda shoulda or would have. Remember these are people here. Ever think that maybe Sanchez or Pagan really wanted to go back to teams they played for last year in World Series and no matter what you offered more than likely they were going to take it back to that team and give them a chance to match? So in all probability if you tried to sign you would have to overpay by a pretty good sum. Lets say 17-18 mil / 6 yrs for Sanchez and 12 mil / 5 yrs for Pagan. Maybe then it doesn't look like such a good idea. Be happy we got some players who will help next year, yes they have some warts. But the team is better and still has payroll flexibility which is most important, so if a big time player does make it FA next yr or yr after in all likelihood RS will be players.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know all these guys might not have signed with the Sox, even if we offered slightly more, but if we were going to spend this big this winter, I'd prefer to have done it this way:

    $76M/5 A Sanchez (~$15M/yr)

    $41M/4 A Pagan    (~$10M/yr)

    $16M/2 R Ludwick (~$8M/yr)

    $7M/1   M Reynolds ($7M/yr)

    $4.3M/1   K Uehara (~$4M/yr)

      Total: $45M/yr

    or

    sub Naps for Reynolds at $6M more a year.

       Total: $51M/yr (about what we spent already)

    [/QUOTE]


    Love guys who go coulda shoulda or would have. Remember these are people here. Ever think that maybe Sanchez or Pagan really wanted to go back to teams they played for last year in World Series and no matter what you offered more than likely they were going to take it back to that team and give them a chance to match? So in all probability if you tried to sign you would have to overpay by a pretty good sum. Lets say 17-18 mil / 6 yrs for Sanchez and 12 mil / 5 yrs for Pagan. Maybe then it doesn't look like such a good idea. Be happy we got some players who will help next year, yes they have some warts. But the team is better and still has payroll flexibility which is most important, so if a big time player does make it FA next yr or yr after in all likelihood RS will be players.

    [/QUOTE]

    Even if the Sox were interested in Pagan, who parlayed a hot August /September into a big contract, and as you mentioned, why would he leave his current team, a team that happens to be the current World Champions, to change coasts, change leagues and change positions? 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to BannedOnTheRun--1918's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     


    Fair enough. We may get a lot in return when trading these guys this July when we are down 15 by then.

    [/QUOTE]


    Realistically, do you think the red flops finish out of the cellar this year?

    [/QUOTE]

    At this point, no. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ben and Co. had a plan and they are sticking to it. It involves changing a toxic clubhouse atmosphere and not giving out ridiculous contracts all while keeping their young talent.

    There wasnt a lot available in FA this year and looks to be about the same next year. They have improved more with these moves than they wouldhave just signing hamilton and Sanchez.

    [/QUOTE]

    Signing Hamilton and Sanchez was not my 1st. 2nd or 3rd choice, but it would have been better than what we did for 2 reasons:

    1) We'd have a better chance in 2013 at about the same cost.

    2) We'd have a better chance in 2014 and beyond (more important).

     

    You all know what my other top priorities were, so I won't go into them here.

    [/QUOTE]


    Those 2 moves would have filled 2 needs. we still needed a BU catcher, one more OF'er a 1b and bullpen arms.

    The Sox werent going to retool in one year. They will put a team on the field that will be competetive in 2013 and could surprise some. When healthy and not working under such a stressful atmosphere, I think this team is better than most here think.

    [/QUOTE]

    You seriously think the back-up catcher role was so important? So mush so, to think it outweighes the huge gains at 2 positions?

    You really think Gomes and SV are better than Hamilton and Nava/Kalish?

    As for the pen, that is the least of our worries, but we could have gotten Hamilton, Sanchez and Uehara for about what we got everyone else so far, so that was a push.

     

    Look, I was not for signing Hamilton. I just brought up that options as being better than what we got.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know all these guys might not have signed with the Sox, even if we offered slightly more, but if we were going to spend this big this winter, I'd prefer to have done it this way:

    $76M/5 A Sanchez (~$15M/yr)

    $41M/4 A Pagan    (~$10M/yr)

    $16M/2 R Ludwick (~$8M/yr)

    $7M/1   M Reynolds ($7M/yr)

    $4.3M/1   K Uehara (~$4M/yr)

      Total: $45M/yr

    or

    sub Naps for Reynolds at $6M more a year.

       Total: $51M/yr (about what we spent already)

    [/QUOTE]


    Love guys who go coulda shoulda or would have. Remember these are people here. Ever think that maybe Sanchez or Pagan really wanted to go back to teams they played for last year in World Series and no matter what you offered more than likely they were going to take it back to that team and give them a chance to match? So in all probability if you tried to sign you would have to overpay by a pretty good sum. Lets say 17-18 mil / 6 yrs for Sanchez and 12 mil / 5 yrs for Pagan. Maybe then it doesn't look like such a good idea. Be happy we got some players who will help next year, yes they have some warts. But the team is better and still has payroll flexibility which is most important, so if a big time player does make it FA next yr or yr after in all likelihood RS will be players.

    [/QUOTE]

    Even if the Sox were interested in Pagan, who parlayed a hot August /September into a big contract, and as you mentioned, why would he leave his current team, a team that happens to be the current World Champions, to change coasts, change leagues and change positions? 

    [/QUOTE]

    I qualified my statement by saying that these guys may not have come here even if we offered slightly more. This is a discussion board and I made my point. I never said it was certain we might have gotten these guys, but I offered what I thought was one alternative possible scenario that would have beat the pants off what we ended up doing.

    Another alternative would have been to just sign McCarthy and a couple one year rentals, traded all free agents to be for prospects and traded prospects for Upton or Myers and Anderson.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know all these guys might not have signed with the Sox, even if we offered slightly more, but if we were going to spend this big this winter, I'd prefer to have done it this way:

    $76M/5 A Sanchez (~$15M/yr)

    $41M/4 A Pagan    (~$10M/yr)

    $16M/2 R Ludwick (~$8M/yr)

    $7M/1   M Reynolds ($7M/yr)

    $4.3M/1   K Uehara (~$4M/yr)

      Total: $45M/yr

    or

    sub Naps for Reynolds at $6M more a year.

       Total: $51M/yr (about what we spent already)

    [/QUOTE]


    Love guys who go coulda shoulda or would have. Remember these are people here. Ever think that maybe Sanchez or Pagan really wanted to go back to teams they played for last year in World Series and no matter what you offered more than likely they were going to take it back to that team and give them a chance to match? So in all probability if you tried to sign you would have to overpay by a pretty good sum. Lets say 17-18 mil / 6 yrs for Sanchez and 12 mil / 5 yrs for Pagan. Maybe then it doesn't look like such a good idea. Be happy we got some players who will help next year, yes they have some warts. But the team is better and still has payroll flexibility which is most important, so if a big time player does make it FA next yr or yr after in all likelihood RS will be players.

    [/QUOTE]

    Even if the Sox were interested in Pagan, who parlayed a hot August /September into a big contract, and as you mentioned, why would he leave his current team, a team that happens to be the current World Champions, to change coasts, change leagues and change positions? 

    [/QUOTE]

    I qualified my statement by saying that these guys may not have come here even if we offered slightly more. This is a discussion board and I made my point. I never said it was certain we might have gotten these guys, but I offered what I thought was one alternative possible scenario that would have beat the pants off what we ended up doing.

    Another alternative would have been to just sign McCarthy and a couple one year rentals, traded all free agents to be for prospects and traded prospects for Upton or Myers and Anderson.

    [/QUOTE]

    Fair enough, but your proposal isn't reality at all.  The Sox didn't like McCarthy, so he wasn't an option.  Anderson isn't available, unless they were going to blow the A's away, which makes no sense.  Upton is no longer available after the other moves Arizona made.  The Sox listened when the Royals called on Lester, but in the end, they didn't think it made sense to trade a young starting pitcher for a top outfield prospect.

    The Sox aren't going field a team of kids, by trading away all of their "free agents to be", in hopes that the cavalry is arriving in '14. '15, etc...It's very possible many of these kids won't make it.  They need to put a competitive team on the field for '13, and many people think they will.  Besides, the guys they signed can all be flipped at the deadline for kids if they are out of it.   

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I qualified my statement by saying that these guys may not have come here even if we offered slightly more. This is a discussion board and I made my point. I never said it was certain we might have gotten these guys, but I offered what I thought was one alternative possible scenario that would have beat the pants off what we ended up doing.

    Another alternative would have been to just sign McCarthy and a couple one year rentals, traded all free agents to be for prospects and traded prospects for Upton or Myers and Anderson.

    [/QUOTE]

    Fair enough, but your proposal isn't reality at all.  The Sox didn't like McCarthy, so he wasn't an option. 

     

    The Sox didn't like anyone better than who they got, or they viewed the cost was too high. When I give my opinion on what I would have preferred, it is understood that the Sox didn't agree with my position. I realize that. 

    Every winter many posters give their opinions on what they liked, disliked, and what we might have wanted to happen instead. I understand why Ben did not choose what I wanted: he liked his plan better. I realize that.

    I never pretend to be better than Ben, and I never said I was better than Theo. I am however going to voice my opinions and my ideas anyways. I don't do it to try and convince Ben to change his mind. He doesn't read these threads. I realize that.

     

    Anderson isn't available, unless they were going to blow the A's away, which makes no sense. 

    We don't know this based on a GM saying he is "not available". I remember last winter, several posters told me Gio G was not available either.

     

    Upton is no longer available after the other moves Arizona made.  The Sox listened when the Royals called on Lester, but in the end, they didn't think it made sense to trade a young starting pitcher for a top outfield prospect.

    I was speaking in terms of what we could have done, not what we should do now. Upton was available not long ago. I agree, he is not likely to be traded now.

     

    The Sox aren't going field a team of kids, by trading away all of their "free agents to be", in hopes that the cavalry is arriving in '14. '15, etc...It's very possible many of these kids won't make it. 

    My point is that almost any prospect has a better chance of helping us in 2014 and beyond than Ells, Salty and Breslow. They will all be gone after 2013, or if we really want them, we can re-sign them next winter.

    My plan was not to "field a team of kids", although I'd have even rather had that than this. All of my plans had us improving our team for 2013, but more so in 2014 and beyond.

     

    They need to put a competitive team on the field for '13, and many people think they will.  Besides, the guys they signed can all be flipped at the deadline for kids if they are out of it.   

    That's about the only upside- assuming they are doing well enough to be wanted.

     

    I hope I eat my words next year. Nothing would make me happier, but I really think NESN viewership and park attendance would not be effected one bit had we signed McCarthy instead of Dempster- had we signed Pagan not SV, had we gone with Nava & Kalish over Gomes.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 9.


    Lackey       $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)    Avg: ~$14M

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)               Avg: $13M

    Napoli       $13M (plus $13M for 2014 and 2015)                        Avg: $13M

    Dempster $13.25M (plus $13.25M for 2014)                             Avg. $13.3M

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)  Avg: $6M

    Pedroia     $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club opt in 2015 w/ $0.5M B/O) Avg: $6.75M

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M opt in '16 & '17)   Avg: ~$7M

    Gomes       $5M    ($5M in '14)                             Avg: $5M

    Uehara      $4.25M

    D. Ross      $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)                         Avg: $3.1M

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)                           Avg: ~$2M


    ~$98M in signed players.  (Luxury Tax -  Average Anual Value: ~$87M)



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M  Non Tendered
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M Non Tendered
    Total Est: $33M to $43M  Avg: ~$38M

    That puts our budget at about $136M, not counting pre-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

    The Luxury Tax number is now about : ~$124M

     

    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    After adding these "small" contract totals, My guess is we are not at:

    ~$147M

    ~$136M AAV

     

    (Remember there is an amount that must be paid to to the player pension fund that counts against the Luxury tax threshhold, so we may have about $35-40M or so to spend this year and still be below the line.)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Wow, so Lackey is the highest paid Red Sox.  I really hopes he has a bounce back year in 2013.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ice-Cream u might get a laugh on this but I was reading on another forum where the question about maybe the Royals offering a small deal to Damon and one poster remarked "Are you kidding, Damon would respond to a dog whistle at this point in his career."

     

    Made me laugh.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know all these guys might not have signed with the Sox, even if we offered slightly more, but if we were going to spend this big this winter, I'd prefer to have done it this way:

    $76M/5 A Sanchez (~$15M/yr)

    $41M/4 A Pagan    (~$10M/yr)

    $16M/2 R Ludwick (~$8M/yr)

    $7M/1   M Reynolds ($7M/yr)

    $4.3M/1   K Uehara (~$4M/yr)

      Total: $45M/yr

    or

    sub Naps for Reynolds at $6M more a year.

       Total: $51M/yr (about what we spent already)

    [/QUOTE]


    Love guys who go coulda shoulda or would have. Remember these are people here. Ever think that maybe Sanchez or Pagan really wanted to go back to teams they played for last year in World Series and no matter what you offered more than likely they were going to take it back to that team and give them a chance to match? So in all probability if you tried to sign you would have to overpay by a pretty good sum. Lets say 17-18 mil / 6 yrs for Sanchez and 12 mil / 5 yrs for Pagan. Maybe then it doesn't look like such a good idea. Be happy we got some players who will help next year, yes they have some warts. But the team is better and still has payroll flexibility which is most important, so if a big time player does make it FA next yr or yr after in all likelihood RS will be players.

    [/QUOTE]

    Even if the Sox were interested in Pagan, who parlayed a hot August /September into a big contract, and as you mentioned, why would he leave his current team, a team that happens to be the current World Champions, to change coasts, change leagues and change positions? 

    [/QUOTE]


    Think you just made my point for me!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know all these guys might not have signed with the Sox, even if we offered slightly more, but if we were going to spend this big this winter, I'd prefer to have done it this way:

    $76M/5 A Sanchez (~$15M/yr)

    $41M/4 A Pagan    (~$10M/yr)

    $16M/2 R Ludwick (~$8M/yr)

    $7M/1   M Reynolds ($7M/yr)

    $4.3M/1   K Uehara (~$4M/yr)

      Total: $45M/yr

    or

    sub Naps for Reynolds at $6M more a year.

       Total: $51M/yr (about what we spent already)

    [/QUOTE]


    Love guys who go coulda shoulda or would have. Remember these are people here. Ever think that maybe Sanchez or Pagan really wanted to go back to teams they played for last year in World Series and no matter what you offered more than likely they were going to take it back to that team and give them a chance to match? So in all probability if you tried to sign you would have to overpay by a pretty good sum. Lets say 17-18 mil / 6 yrs for Sanchez and 12 mil / 5 yrs for Pagan. Maybe then it doesn't look like such a good idea. Be happy we got some players who will help next year, yes they have some warts. But the team is better and still has payroll flexibility which is most important, so if a big time player does make it FA next yr or yr after in all likelihood RS will be players.

    [/QUOTE]

    Even if the Sox were interested in Pagan, who parlayed a hot August /September into a big contract, and as you mentioned, why would he leave his current team, a team that happens to be the current World Champions, to change coasts, change leagues and change positions? 

    [/QUOTE]

    I qualified my statement by saying that these guys may not have come here even if we offered slightly more. This is a discussion board and I made my point. I never said it was certain we might have gotten these guys, but I offered what I thought was one alternative possible scenario that would have beat the pants off what we ended up doing.

    Another alternative would have been to just sign McCarthy and a couple one year rentals, traded all free agents to be for prospects and traded prospects for Upton or Myers and Anderson.

    [/QUOTE]


    My point is how do we not know that Ben hasn't looked into all the possibilities that you mention. But maybe in some cases the players mentioned did not want to come to RS, McCarthy being the perfect example, heard numerous times he did not want to play on east coast. Same thing w/ Sanchez heard he wanted to return to Tigers, and looks like he took Cubs offer to Tigers and Tigers decided he was worth keeping. Just think sometimes people can say we shoulda done this or that but sometimes its not even a possibility.

    As a life long RS fan have to have some hope that Ben is competant to get the job done. IMO if he doesn't turn it around quickly his job is on line. I think he made best of given situation. Terrible FA class [2 top FA= Huge ?'s] & the cost of acquiring top of rotation pitching is unbelievably high, just ask Royals & Wil Meyers. He did next best thing went after high character players [says something about RS clubhouse] who can contribute next yr, but most IMPORTANTLY signed all for 3 yrs or less, giving the team flexibilty moving forward. I'd be first to admit if Hammels or Cain had made it to FA this year the RS should have been all in, but not Greinke or Hamilton in this city.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    My point is how do we not know that Ben hasn't looked into all the possibilities that you mention.

    We don't know, but that isn't a reason for me to state my opinion that there were better players out there that signed for less per year than what we got. 

    I have never said Ben did not try to get these guys or that they wanted to sign here.

     

    But maybe in some cases the players mentioned did not want to come to RS, McCarthy being the perfect example, heard numerous times he did not want to play on east coast. Same thing w/ Sanchez heard he wanted to return to Tigers, and looks like he took Cubs offer to Tigers and Tigers decided he was worth keeping. Just think sometimes people can say we shoulda done this or that but sometimes its not even a possibility.

    OK, so you are relying on rumors to support you point now; have you herd any rumors about any Sox offers to McCarthy, Pagan, A Sanchez...?

    As a life long RS fan have to have some hope that Ben is competant to get the job done. IMO if he doesn't turn it around quickly his job is on line. I think he made best of given situation.

    I hope uou are not assuming I am hoping Ben is an idiot. I have been a Sox fan since the early 70's and think Ben did not make the best of a very difficult situation he was left with. I loved the Dodger trade since it "wiped the slate clean". but I feel like it's all a mess again- just at shorter terms this time. Rah Rah!

    Terrible FA class [2 top FA= Huge ?'s] & the cost of acquiring top of rotation pitching is unbelievably high, just ask Royals & Wil Meyers. He did next best thing went after high character players [says something about RS clubhouse] who can contribute next yr, but most IMPORTANTLY signed all for 3 yrs or less, giving the team flexibilty moving forward. I'd be first to admit if Hammels or Cain had made it to FA this year the RS should have been all in, but not Greinke or Hamilton in this city.

    Signing Greinke or Hamilton was never part of any of my plans. I have mentioned that signing one would have been better than what we did, but I have been against signing either of them since day 1.

    The fact is, we spent about $50M and got no top 11 FA in a weak FA class. There is no spinning this any other way.

     

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