A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The only possible moves for 2013 only should be FA signings ... perhaps of the "bridge" one year deal type variety. Since the budget is no longer a restraint, I am not going to criticize any short term deals designed to keep fans watching NESN and in the seats, but I do not want to see us trading prospects for guys with 1 of team control, or players on the down swing of their careers.

    I really see no point in holding onto any players who will be FAs after 2013, unless we plan on extending them.

    Ellsbury: I don't see the point of extending him this winter. Too many questions. Too much money needed to do that with Boras as his agent. The draft pick value after he becomes a FA next winter is lost if he is traded after 2013 starts. He should be traded if the value offered in return is better than the estimated value of the sandwich pick gained if we keep Ells and he walks.

    Salty: We have Lava who is unproven but promising. We have Swihart & Vazquez on the farther away horizon, but the catcher position is so important that it would be quite a gamble to put all our eggs in the prospect basket. It's a tough call on extending him, but I suppose it depends on the cost and length of the deal. 27 is still rather young for a ML catcher, especially one who has not played 100-120+ games a season behind the plater for 9 years. My projection is that Salty will be traded while his stock is high, and we will pray that Lava is improved enough behind the plate to be an asset by 2014. My own position is that Lava might get more in return via trade than Salty due to his many years of team control, low cost, and high ceiling. If I had to pull the trigger, I'd try and extend Salty 2-3 more years, and if he says no, trade him. If he says yes, trade Lava or pencil him in at DH if Papi walks.

    Breslow: I like this guy. However, he is 32 and will turn 34 in August of 2014. I'm leaning towards trying to trade him rather than extend him. Maybe as part of a bigger package. I'm not sure what his value is to other teams, but my guess is several contending teams would love him on their team next year.

    Sweeney: I wanted him traded at the deadline, as apparently Sox management did as well, but he ruined that plan. He does provide some nice and needed defense in RF and CF, but he has no long term future with this team. His trade value may be low, but in a package, he may help us upgrade somwhere.

    Hill: Probably has some trade value, but not much. He might stay and continue here on 1 year deals or arb acceptances.

    And then there are the FAs to be in 2015 or older players who don't appear to be a big part of this team for 2014 and beyond:

    Bailey: He probably stays for 2013, even if just to build value for a 2014 trade. Pray for good health and his value should rise as he pressumably will pitch well.

    Aceves: appears to have worn pout his welcome as he did in NY. It's a shame, because he could be the very best long relief pitcher in MLB today. I think he will be traded after his arb or pre-arb signing.

    Aviles: we are loaded with SS prospects, some of which appear to be ready for 2013 and certainly by 2014. He will be traded this winter, as his cost will be a bit too high for a utility IF'er. His stock should be up agfter a decent season, especially doing a surprisingly good job in the field.

    A Miller: Seems to have found his role. He has some nasty nasty stuff. I'd like to see him stay, but would be open top offers or package deals.

    Morales: I'd like to see us keep him around. Lots of potential.

    Atchison: Still has 2 pre-arb years left. Amazing for a soon-to-be 37 year old. He has done a great job for us, but should not be part of our 2014 plan. His value to a 2013 contender should be more than his value to us for 2014 and beyond.

    Looking at most of these players one by one might not make you feel like we can get great return for themt as part of larger packages, either grouped together or combined with prospects, they can help tip the balance on a trade offer to convince a team to choose our offer over others. Many of these players can be key role players for a contender next year, and although we might not think some of these guys are all that good, they are better than some contending teams current choices at key positions. Most contending teams have some pretty big weaknesses, whereby guys like Ellsbury, Salty (or Lava), Breslow, Aviles, Sweeney, Aceves, Hill, and Atchison represent a significant upgrade or at worst a very nice upgrade of their bench. Including these guys in trade offers may also lessen the need to part with key prospects.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I could easily see 3 to 5 of the above mentioned players traded this winter.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    i see red sox fans have reverted back to the wait until next year philosophy.  now it is 2014.  then it will be 2016...before you know it it's 8 decades later.  This team has MAJOR resources (see:  $$$$) and no one should be satisfied with "let's wait until 2014".  hold on to prospects?  for what?  how's holding iggy worked out?  how did hanging on to our former stud 1st base prospect work out?  there are thousands and thousands of examples across MLB of "can't miss" prospects that were busts.  there are a small percentage of these that actually meet expectations.  give me proven.  now....not in 2046.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i see red sox fans have reverted back to the wait until next year philosophy.  now it is 2014.  then it will be 2016...before you know it it's 8 decades later.  This team has MAJOR resources (see:  $$$$) and no one should be satisfied with "let's wait until 2014".  hold on to prospects?  for what?  how's holding iggy worked out?  how did hanging on to our former stud 1st base prospect work out?  there are thousands and thousands of examples across MLB of "can't miss" prospects that were busts.  there are a small percentage of these that actually meet expectations.  give me proven.  now....not in 2046.

     

    [/QUOTE]
    Specifically what "proven" players should the Red Sox pursue? And what current players should the Red Sox surrender if those players are available only via trade?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [/QUOTE]
    Specifically what "proven" players should the Red Sox pursue? And what current players should the Red Sox surrender if those players are available only via trade?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    a super fair question.  Gonzalez is a All Star 1b.  i get why everyone is happy about the trade.  it got rid of 2 guys the fan base have grown to hate and a ton of salary.  but what will they spend that money on?  nothing?  90MM payroll?  who does that benefit?  ownership.
      ticket prices wont go down.

    so who do we have play 1b?  it wont be anyone as nearly as good as a-gon.  has beckett's replacement been a savior in our rotation?  crawford showed signs when in the lineup this year, i would have liked to see him healthy and our starting LF next year.  who are we going to have in LF next year?  hamilton?  awesome.  at what price you'll ask me.  i dont care is my answer.  is there a FA we missed out on because we wouldnt spend the $$$?  an unproven kid?  no thanks.

    do i have a list of available via trade veterans?  no.  i am not a gm or owner with the capabilities to talk to other gm/owners to find out who may be available.  question - did you (or anyone else for that matter) see the possibility of this trade with LA prior to it happening?????  anyone or no one could be available. 

    who should they pursue - everyone.  who should they surrender - anyone.  especially "prospects".  i dont think any of our prospects are "untouchable".  do you>?

    the day they saved a quarter billion dollars from the payroll should have been the same day that they offered ortiz a 2 year deal and overpaid him.  to nickel and dime david ortiz after all he has done for this orgazition after saving a quarter billion dollars is a disgrace.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Slash, you have a point.  But we just got out of a situation where we couldn't even pick up a needed starting pitcher before the season started because we had zero flexibility.  We may have just gotten out from under some big contracts, but I think we need a steady sure hand now in evaluation before we get guys we don't really need (CC) or guys who have gone sour (Beckett).  You mention Hamilton.  He's obviously a great talent.  But he's also been reprimanded this year by his owner/general manager  (?)  for not hustling, attitude issues.  I'm not saying we shouldn't check him out--but that he needs to be vetted carefully.  Also, as to prospects, you say make anyone available.  Maybe.  But we invest millions in those guys to bring them to the major league level and we need to be as careful as possible not to throw the wrong guy in with a trade.  For example, would we want Reddick back now?  I think we're all frustrated at our present situation, but the RS have to try to make decisions that won't keep us where we are.  I think this ownership is smart enough to know that a winning team will bring in more bucks for everybody and a losing one will have us all frothing at the mouth.  I think there has to be "A Plan"--I just hope somebody there can come up with one without just always going for the big name free agent, whether he fits or not.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Moon et al, made a comment earlier this week about batting philosophy and what I observed this summer, our "grinding it out" batting philosophy.  Since I admit I'm a seat of the pants poster and try to talk about what I see without much empirical evidence, I watched a Yankee RS game this week keeping track of every pitch in innings 2-8 by our batters.  These were the number of non-swinging strikes in those innings:

                                 7-4-4-4-5-2-6

    I am not calling for any particular action, just asking what you guys are thinking.  I have a couple of comments.  Many of these were first strikes and right down the middle of the plate.  Would we say these (including more from the two innings I missed) would be about one-fourth of all the pitches thrown?  Inning two the guys were really grinding but they didn't get any runs.  This was a big game for Salty--he got a double, triple, and homer and he was swinging away.  I thought I was going to be able to say the same about Ciriacco, but he seemed to be taking more--maybe one hit.  Ells had a tremendous at bat late in the game 11 or 12 pitches but didn't get a hit or impact the inning.  Iggy was very non aggressive and didn't help at all with runners on base, didn't move them along when it was critical and drew comments from the announcers.

    Maybe this is my point: have we become so ingrained about grinding it out that the batters aren't being agressive enough, especially the young ones trying to "fit in" before they've completely developed as hitters?  32 strikes--and more--down the middle and no swing.  I have heard hitters say they may only get one good pitch per at bat.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon et al, made a comment earlier this week about batting philosophy and what I observed this summer, our "grinding it out" batting philosophy.  Since I admit I'm a seat of the pants poster and try to talk about what I see without much empirical evidence, I watched a Yankee RS game this week keeping track of every pitch in innings 2-8 by our batters.  These were the number of non-swinging strikes in those innings:

                                 7-4-4-4-5-2-6

    I am not calling for any particular action, just asking what you guys are thinking.  I have a couple of comments.  Many of these were first strikes and right down the middle of the plate.  Would we say these (including more from the two innings I missed) would be about one-fourth of all the pitches thrown?  Inning two the guys were really grinding but they didn't get any runs.  This was a big game for Salty--he got a double, triple, and homer and he was swinging away.  I thought I was going to be able to say the same about Ciriacco, but he seemed to be taking more--maybe one hit.  Ells had a tremendous at bat late in the game 11 or 12 pitches but didn't get a hit or impact the inning.  Iggy was very non aggressive and didn't help at all with runners on base, didn't move them along when it was critical and drew comments from the announcers.

    Maybe this is my point: have we become so ingrained about grinding it out that the batters aren't being agressive enough, especially the young ones trying to "fit in" before they've completely developed as hitters?  32 strikes--and more--down the middle and no swing.  I have heard hitters say they may only get one good pitch per at bat.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    It's obvious the opponents do their homwework. They know we take the first pitch and they go up on the count more often than not. We need to mix it up more- no doubt.

    I still like the general philosophy of forcing high pitch counts on the starter, so we can face the middle relievers- traditionally the weakest pitchers on most staffs, but it only goes so far.

    That was one thing nice about having Beltre. He got to starters that the rest of our line-up couldn't do. Salty seems to fit that bill somewhat, but we have so many yahoos complaining about his K total.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    While I understand the philosphy of keeping all our kids in hopes that 3 will turn into good to great OF'ers at low cost and long team control years, our best major league OF'er for 2013 after Ellsbury is Ryan Sweeney. I repeat: Ryan "freakin'" Sweeney! Add to that the fact that Ellsbury his very likely not going to be here after 2013 (or even after 2012 as he should be traded), some of you are putting all of our OF hopes on prodspects and only prospects. Maybe a few want some patchwork bridge FAs signed to get us over the hump (Pods & Ross, perhaps), but it seems like many here are fully content with sitting back and waiting it out rather than jump-starting the process by adding a young more proven OF'er to the mix.

    We have a load of decent to great OF prospects. There is merit to the idea that planning on 3-4 of them will be ready to be stars on this team by 2014. With a high quantity of OF prospects, the odds improve, but I'd rather have one solid, young OF'er on the books for 3 or more years and the prospects fighting for 2 slots rather than 3.

    Here's a list of our OF'ers that are signed for 2013 or beyond :

    Ellsbury ( FA after 2013 )

    Sweeney ( FA after 2013 )

    Nava

    Repko

    Kalish

    Sands

    Lin

    Linares

    Brentz

    Hazelbaker

    Bradley

    Hassan

    Jacobs

    de la Cruz

    Margot

    Hissey

     

    There's a good chance 2 of these guys will become very good ML OF'ers, but I think wishing on 3 is a bit too much.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Not for nothing , but King Felix has been hit very hard in his last three outings , all losses. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I was a big proponent of trading Ellsbury last winter, but now I don't think is the time.  Unless he goes on an absolute tear the last couple of weeks of the season, we'll be selling very low - not only has not helped his cause in the minds of GMs who might find him 'fragile', but he's making 2011 look very much like a fluke.  He's up to 280 PAs now and hasn't shown a hint of the power from a year ago.  I say give him a chance to excel during a contract year - if he performs well, and we're not in the hunt, he'll be far more valuable than he will be this winter, compensation draft pick or no.

    I think we should be willing to trade Middlebrooks for equal value - third base looks like the best spot for Bogaerts, and using him in the OF just seems like a waste.  Also, Bogaerts seems like the better bat long-term.  I've suggested before that Detroit might want to go after Hamilton if they thought they could trade Cabrera and get a good, cheap, young 3B with all-star potential like Middlebrooks in return.  But other options are Paul Goldschmidt from AZ, or getting Anthony Rizzo back.  These are the guys that look poised to become the next Vottos and Agons.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    2013 And Beyond, that is...

    This offseason can go in so many directions, it is hard to put your finger on the most likely path. Personally, I'd like to see us make only deals and signings that only help us beyond 2013, but my guess is Sox management may sign a player or two to keep fans in the stands for 2013 and bridge us to the point where some of our top prospects are ready to try it in the bigs. In the past, our budget has been a factor, but I'm not sure it will be this winter, at least in terms of trying to stay below the luxury tax limit. Here's a rundown of what we have for a foundation.

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 5!
    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)
    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)
    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)
    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)
    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)
    ~$45M in signed players.

    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    I think all of these players will be retained by signing before they even reach arb, but I am pretty certain some will be traded before next season begins.  Last arb year players (Ellsbury, Salty, Breslow, Sweeney, and Hill) are likely candidates to try and trade for longer team-controlled players.  Jacocby's possible trade has been debated for months and even years, but he must be traded before the 2013 season begins, if the team getting him is to receive the comp draft pick if Ellsbury does not accept about a $13M offer after 2013. This draft pick greatly increases his value, so in my opinion, we should look to trade him this winter rather than lose him for only a draft pick after 2013. Several contending teams would love to have him for 2013 & then the draft pick if he walks, but we shouldn't hand him away. Salty may be traded to make way for Lava, Sweeney may be traded as well, but he may stay as a bridge to Brentz & Bradley. Aceves is wearing out his welcome, but is a fine mid/long reliever. Aviles will likely be dealt as Iggy and Ciriaco share SS & IF duties. Breslow could help net a better player as part of a package.

    Current players in last year of team control:
    Ortiz
    Dice-K
    Loney
    Ross
    Cook
    Padilla
    Podsednick
    Papi is the big decision this winter. He's a legend and should retire in a Sox uniform. I doubt any other team would offer him more than what he is worth to this team and city. I realize we are not likely to seriously compete in 2013, but Papi should be the exception to the rule of looking to 2014 and beyond. I think Ross wants to stay in Boston as much as Ben wants him here as well. Pods & Padilla may be back on 1 year deals.


    Pre-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen
    Gomez
    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Stewart
    DeJesus
    Valencia
    Lin (OF)
    Carpenter
    Britton
    Pimental

    Top Prospects probably not ready for MLB in 2013 (* may see in 2013):
    SS Bogaerts 19 (Could be moved to OF or 1B)
    SP Barnes 22
    OF Bradley 22
    SP Webster* 22
    OF Brentz* 23
    3B Cecchini 21 (Could be moved to OF, 1B or 2B), Vitek 23
    SP Owens 20
    C Swihart 20, Vazquez 22, D Butler* 25
    SP Workman* 24, Johnson 21, Ranaudo 23,  Light 21, Buttrey 19 , Montas 19,
         Callahan 18, Hernandez 23, Ramirez 22, M Pena 21, Olmsted, Kukuk, Wright
         de la Torre
    SS Marrero 22, Vinicio  19, Lin 18
    RP Wilson* 25, Fields 24, Kurcz, Inman, Huntzinger
    OF Linares* 28, Jacobs 21, de la Cruz 20, Hazelbaker 25
    1B/3B  T Shaw 22
    2B Coyle 20

    If we made no trades or signings, my guess is our roster would look like this:

    C Salty   (Butler?)
    C/DH Lava
    1B/DH Gomez (Sands?)
    2B Pedey
    3B Middlebrooks (Valencia?)
    SS Aviles
    IF Iggy or Ciriaco (DeJesus?)
    LF Nava
    CF Ellsbury (Lin?)
    RF Sweeney
    OF Kalish or Linares (Brentz?)

    SP Buch
    SP Lest
    SP Lackey
    SP Doub
    SP Morales
    SP Tazawa (de la Rosa? Webster? Workman?)

    CL Bailey
    RP Aceves
    RP Breslow
    RP Miller     
    RP Atchison (Melancon?)
    RP Mortensen (Carpernter?)
    RP R Hill  (Bard? Beato? Wilson?)

    There are several paths we can go on this winter. I'm sure we all will explore many of them over the next few months. Some are not likely at all while others have varying degrees of liklihood. Here's a rough sketch of some plans:

    1) Spend big and try to compete in 2013: replace the "saved salary" with further big contracts that hopefull will not flame out, such as Hamilton, Greinke, & Napoli to replace AGon, CC & Beckett.

    2) Go for 2014 (and beyond): trade away last arb year players and plan on Bogarts, Bradley, barnes and others to be ready and productive by 2014. Only sign of trade for players that are under team control for several years.

    3) Sign a few bridge players to short term deals, but plan on 2014 and beyond as the true competitive goal.

    I'd choose #2, but I'd keep Papi, try and sign Ross to a 2-3 year deal for LF not RF(could DH in 2014), and look to make some serious trades and signings that help in 2013, but that will be ehre for 2014 and beyond.

    Let's keep it "real" on this thread.
    Let's keep the personal attacks off this thread.
    Let's try and keep this about the Sox and not politics.
    Let the debates begin...

    [/QUOTE]

    moon, with Theo finally being out of the picture I think the Sox are finally looking at the entire picture when evaluating talent.  Theo had no clue in most cases regardless of who may disagree.  I think our team will keep the nucleus like Papi, Ells, Pede and possibly Ross but won't be handing out any long term contracts.

    Next season should focus more on pitching and an attempt to sign Hamilton, or trading for a Ryan Braun if possible.  We have too many young players like Salty, Lav, Bogy, Bradley, Brentz, Iggy, Middy, Ciriaco and Sands to evaluate who could save us a ton of cash in years to come, so why spend crazy like Theo until we are absolutely sure what we have?

     

     

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    ... so why spend crazy  ...?

     

    I'm not advocating spending like crazy. I don't want Hamilton or Greinke.

    I don't want to pay Ellsbury $10M for 2013 and see him walk for just a draft pick after 2013.

    I want to gear towards 2014 and beyond, but that doesn't mean we can't get better for 2013 along the way by trading for guys like Upton and Brett Anderson.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just bought my Elizabeth Warren Tshirt and car magnet. Can't understand why she isn't demolishing Brown up there. It reminds me of high school when the popular kid won elections even though they didn't care at all about helping the school. Good looking guy who drives a pick up and knows Boston area sports. Says what we want to hear but votes against our interest and even potentially allows the nut cases to get back in charge again in the Senate. God help us. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Way to stay away from politics. She's not demolishing Brown, in spite of the many millions the DNC is throwing her way, because the electorate in Mass is smart enough to recognize that Brown is doing an outstanding job. Maybe you don't mind paying for other folks' birth control and trans-gender surgery, but I find it offensive.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Jid, I really DO see why you choose not to be here as much as you used to.

    This whole thread is making me sick to my stomach.  Yes, that includes you, Boomer.

    I'm out of here.  Of course, it doesn't really matter since my pencil isn't sharp enough for the expert stat geeks anyway.  The same few continually massaging each other's sphincters with redundant useless information thinking they'll get a gold star and claim boasting rights.

    Jid, drop me an e-mail on occasion to say hello.  I'll do the same.  I'll miss you.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    amp, sorry you feel that way. I'll miss you.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    amp, sorry you feel that way. I'll miss you.

     

    1. [/QUOTE]


      Are you kidding? we're phylosophycally, politically, realistically and objectively light years away from each other.  My sense of objectivity includes personality, attitude, desire, heart....intangible qualities unable to be measured statistically.  Hence, in my opinion, yuour statistical abilty, although cosmetically clean, do not take ihto effect the hunan componenet, which cannot be measured by numbers.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to ampoule's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    amp, sorry you feel that way. I'll miss you.

     

    1. [/QUOTE]


      Are you kidding? we're phylosophycally, politically, realistically and objectively light years away from each other.  My sense of objectivity includes personality, attitude, desire, heart....intangible qualities unable to be measured statistically.  Hence, in my opinion, yuour statistical abilty, although cosmetically clean, do not take ihto effect the hunan componenet, which cannot be measured by numbers.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Not even close to kidding.

    You have always been civil and respectful, and I appreciate discussions and debates with those that  may be on the opposite spectrum of beliefs.

    On the human element, I played this great game for many years and understand how heart and soul is a huge part of this game, however, I think some aspects of "attitude" are overblown by the media and posters here.

    Again, I am sorry you are choosing to leave this thread (site?). I welcome divergent opinions as enlightening. If we all only discussed with those who believe the same thing, I don't think I'd be here.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

            *** Warning: This is not my plan. I do not want to follow this plan.***

     (Special warning to softy: have your mom explain to you that this is not moonslav's plan, but rather just a presentation of what could be if management reverted back to their old traditional method of building a team.)

    To return this team to last year's player saalry budget in just one winter- 2012-2013:

    1) Assuming we will be at about $80M after arb and pre-arb signings, we'd have, under this plan, about $100M to spend this winter.

    2) Trade Doubront, Aceves, Aviles, Kalish and Jacobs for Justin Upton.

    13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M,15:$14.5M  (Add: ~ $4M to 2013 payroll)

    3) Trade Lavarnway & Cecchini for Brett Anderson. 

    13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout), 15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)  (+$4M  to 2013 budget)

    4) Sign Josh Hamilton at $25M/yr for 5 years.  (+$25M to payroll)

    5) Sign Zach Geinke at $20M/yr for 5 years. (+$20M to payroll)

    6) Sign Mike Napoli at $12M/yr for 4 years (+$12M to payroll)

    7) Sign David Ortiz at $12M for 1 year (+$12M to payroll)

    8)  Sign Brandon McCarthey at $10M/yr for 4 years (+$10M to payroll)

    This totals $97M in increased payroll our of $100 available in theory.

    This would be our 2013 roster:

    C: Salty

    1B/C: Napoli

    DH/1B: Papi

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks

    SS: Iggy

    IF: Ciriaco

    IF: Gomez/Sands/DeJesus/Valencia

    LF: Hamilton

    CF: Ellsbury

    RF: Upton

    OF: Sweeney

    OF: Sands/Brentz/Nava/Linares/ Lin

    SP: Grenkie

    SP: Buch

    SP: Lester

    SP: Anderson

    SP: McCarthy

    SP: Morales/Webster/de la Rosa

    CL: Bailey

    RP: Breslow

    RP: Tazawa

    RP: Mortensen

    RP: Miller

    RP: Hill

    RP: Atchison/Melancon/Bard/Carpenter/Stewart/Wilson

    Line-up:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Pedey

    3) Hamilton

    4) Upton

    5) Ortiz

    6) Napoli

    7) Middlebrooks

    8) Salty

    9) Iggy/Ciriaco

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Although I am against the above plan, that team is better than the opening day 2012 roster, but at the same cost.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Josh Hamilton is a true star player. The biggest impact player available this off season.  But given his history , he is a real gamble.  It will take a lot to sign him.  With the Sox having just rid themselves of some long term bad contracts, I don't think they will be willing to gamble and spend big bucks on Hamilton.  Greinke , Upton , Napoli and some of the other names out there are not going to be a significant improvement over what we have now.  If they don't want to go all in for a guy like Hamilton , they will be better off spending the money on building a strong, deep pitching staff , and  continuing to develop our young players.  To trade the farm and spend the money on a so called " ace " would be a huge mistake. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Josh Hamilton is a true star player. The biggest impact player available this off season.  But given his history , he is a real gamble.  It will take a lot to sign him.  With the Sox having just rid themselves of some long term bad contracts, I don't think they will be willing to gamble and spend big bucks on Hamilton.  Greinke , Upton , Napoli and some of the other names out there are not going to be a significant improvement over what we have now.  If they don't want to go all in for a guy like Hamilton , they will be better off spending the money on building a strong, deep pitching staff , and  continuing to develop our young players.  To trade the farm and spend the money on a so called " ace " would be a huge mistake. 

     

    I agree. I only presented this as a possible option.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Josh Hamilton is a true star player. The biggest impact player available this off season.  But given his history , he is a real gamble.  It will take a lot to sign him.  With the Sox having just rid themselves of some long term bad contracts, I don't think they will be willing to gamble and spend big bucks on Hamilton.  Greinke , Upton , Napoli and some of the other names out there are not going to be a significant improvement over what we have now.  If they don't want to go all in for a guy like Hamilton , they will be better off spending the money on building a strong, deep pitching staff , and  continuing to develop our young players.  To trade the farm and spend the money on a so called " ace " would be a huge mistake. 

     

    I agree. I only presented this as a possible option.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    [/QUOTE
         Right. I know that.   I just think if you can put together a starting rotation of five guys with ERAs under 4.00 , with a hard throwing bullpen , it is much more important than having an " ace ."   With good , steady starting pitching every day , you will win a lot of games with our current  ( healthy of course )  lineup.   If I am spending someone else's money , I would take a shot at Hamilton.  With my money , maybe not. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Josh Hamilton is a true star player. The biggest impact player available this off season.  But given his history , he is a real gamble.  It will take a lot to sign him.  With the Sox having just rid themselves of some long term bad contracts, I don't think they will be willing to gamble and spend big bucks on Hamilton.  Greinke , Upton , Napoli and some of the other names out there are not going to be a significant improvement over what we have now.  If they don't want to go all in for a guy like Hamilton , they will be better off spending the money on building a strong, deep pitching staff , and  continuing to develop our young players.  To trade the farm and spend the money on a so called " ace " would be a huge mistake. 

     

    I agree. I only presented this as a possible option.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    [/QUOTE
         Right. I know that.   I just think if you can put together a starting rotation of five guys with ERAs under 4.00 , with a hard throwing bullpen , it is much more important than having an " ace ."   With good , steady starting pitching every day , you will win a lot of games with our current  ( healthy of course )  lineup.   If I am spending someone else's money , I would take a shot at Hamilton.  With my money , maybe not. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Greinke, Buch, Lester, Anderson, & McCarthy is a pretty good rotation, and it is certainly much better than the one we had going into 2012.

     

    (We'd also have Lackaey, Webster, de la Rosa, Mortensen, Tazwa, and a couple others in reserve.)

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

            *** Warning: This is not my plan. I do not want to follow this plan.***

     (Special warning to softy: have your mom explain to you that this is not moonslav's plan, but rather just a presentation of what could be if management reverted back to their old traditional method of building a team.)

    To return this team to last year's player saalry budget in just one winter- 2012-2013:

    1) Assuming we will be at about $80M after arb and pre-arb signings, we'd have, under this plan, about $100M to spend this winter.

    2) Trade Doubront, Aceves, Aviles, Kalish and Jacobs for Justin Upton.

    13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M,15:$14.5M  (Add: ~ $4M to 2013 payroll)

    3) Trade Lavarnway & Cecchini for Brett Anderson. 

    13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout), 15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)  (+$4M  to 2013 budget)

    4) Sign Josh Hamilton at $25M/yr for 5 years.  (+$25M to payroll)

    5) Sign Zach Geinke at $20M/yr for 5 years. (+$20M to payroll)

    6) Sign Mike Napoli at $12M/yr for 4 years (+$12M to payroll)

    7) Sign David Ortiz at $12M for 1 year (+$12M to payroll)

    8)  Sign Brandon McCarthey at $10M/yr for 4 years (+$10M to payroll)

    This totals $97M in increased payroll our of $100 available in theory.

    This would be our 2013 roster:

    C: Salty

    1B/C: Napoli

    DH/1B: Papi

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks

    SS: Iggy

    IF: Ciriaco

    IF: Gomez/Sands/DeJesus/Valencia

    LF: Hamilton

    CF: Ellsbury

    RF: Upton

    OF: Sweeney

    OF: Sands/Brentz/Nava/Linares/ Lin

    SP: Grenkie

    SP: Buch

    SP: Lester

    SP: Anderson

    SP: McCarthy

    SP: Morales/Webster/de la Rosa

    CL: Bailey

    RP: Breslow

    RP: Tazawa

    RP: Mortensen

    RP: Miller

    RP: Hill

    RP: Atchison/Melancon/Bard/Carpenter/Stewart/Wilson

    Line-up:

    1) Ellsbury

    2) Pedey

    3) Hamilton

    4) Upton

    5) Ortiz

    6) Napoli

    7) Middlebrooks

    8) Salty

    9) Iggy/Ciriaco

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon

     I love your creativeness. It could work, and there is no doubt that this team would be better than the 2012 team. Though adding 6 new , non system players to a team in one yr usually doesn't,t work I believe. I am of the play "play for 2014- 2020" camp. So I would def move Ells, Salty, and prob Lester ( whom I believe is a 50/50 proposition to have enough of a bounce back yr in 13 for the sox to pick up his option)  with the prospect we could get for that group we coulpas end close to the equiveland and get Upton AND J Mauer. Maurer could catch 80/90 games for a couple yrs while schooling Lava before transitioning to a gold glove 1st baseman at the ripe old age of 31. (I had someone tell me on another thread that they Wern,t sure Mauer could handle first....do they even know what kind of athlete Joe Mauer is?) 

     Greinke I would go after hard. I hear the anxiety issues, but come on...he was LESS than 2 yrs out of HS. It was a minor issue then, and even less of one now.The guy is a stud. Plain and simple. To bounce back from his problem to become one of the top pitchers in ALL of baseball says an awful lot about his mental toughness IMHO. On top of acquiring an ACE....we would get to keep our top 10 pick in the 13 draft ( which I love) it also wouldn't,t cost us any prospects. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    On top of acquiring an ACE....we would get to keep our top 10 pick in the 13 draft ( which I love) it also wouldn't,t cost us any prospects. 

     

    Good point! I never thought of the fact that our top 10 pick will be protected if we sign a big priced player that was offered a qualifying offer from his old team.

     

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