A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ice-Cream u might get a laugh on this but I was reading on another forum where the question about maybe the Royals offering a small deal to Damon and one poster remarked "Are you kidding, Damon would respond to a dog whistle at this point in his career."

     

    Made me laugh.

    [/QUOTE]

    How are you doing EnchiladaT?   :)
    Thanks for the laugh.   LOL   

    Or Damon can grow his beard and hair again and sign a one-day deal with the Red Sox,..........................nay,.........not a good idea.   LOL

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Maybe KC will sign Damon & Manny... LOL

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Is Drew really an option or someone's "pipedream" we should "avoid like the plague".

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Damon is only two years removed from some good numbers (in Tampa)... though I frown on him a bit I still appreciate his career and his bIg help here. Had he been able to repeat his 2011 numbers last year he would be in-line for his 3,000th hit this year. 

     

    Having gotten his 3,000th hit prior to turning 40 would have made him an instant HOF. Now he would have to play until 42 maybe and drag himself over the line to get there - maybe HOF either way but less rememberable.

     

    Johnny Damon Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    My point is how do we not know that Ben hasn't looked into all the possibilities that you mention.

    We don't know, but that isn't a reason for me to state my opinion that there were better players out there that signed for less per year than what we got. 

    I have never said Ben did not try to get these guys or that they wanted to sign here.

     

    But maybe in some cases the players mentioned did not want to come to RS, McCarthy being the perfect example, heard numerous times he did not want to play on east coast. Same thing w/ Sanchez heard he wanted to return to Tigers, and looks like he took Cubs offer to Tigers and Tigers decided he was worth keeping. Just think sometimes people can say we shoulda done this or that but sometimes its not even a possibility.

    OK, so you are relying on rumors to support you point now; have you herd any rumors about any Sox offers to McCarthy, Pagan, A Sanchez...?

    As a life long RS fan have to have some hope that Ben is competant to get the job done. IMO if he doesn't turn it around quickly his job is on line. I think he made best of given situation.

    I hope uou are not assuming I am hoping Ben is an idiot. I have been a Sox fan since the early 70's and think Ben did not make the best of a very difficult situation he was left with. I loved the Dodger trade since it "wiped the slate clean". but I feel like it's all a mess again- just at shorter terms this time. Rah Rah!

    Terrible FA class [2 top FA= Huge ?'s] & the cost of acquiring top of rotation pitching is unbelievably high, just ask Royals & Wil Meyers. He did next best thing went after high character players [says something about RS clubhouse] who can contribute next yr, but most IMPORTANTLY signed all for 3 yrs or less, giving the team flexibilty moving forward. I'd be first to admit if Hammels or Cain had made it to FA this year the RS should have been all in, but not Greinke or Hamilton in this city.

    Signing Greinke or Hamilton was never part of any of my plans. I have mentioned that signing one would have been better than what we did, but I have been against signing either of them since day 1.

    The fact is, we spent about $50M and got no top 11 FA in a weak FA class. There is no spinning this any other way.

    [/QUOTE]


    To that I would suggest in most cases to sign a top 10 FA more than likely going to have to sign for more than 2-3 yrs [unless hurt or bad yr], something obviously Ben did not want to do w/ this class of FA's. Would also suggest that if you had signed both Naps and Victorino a yr earlier both would have been top 10 FA's. These are subjective lists anyway and Naps has always been an underrated player, and IMO he is a top 10 this year. Anyone who would have willing to go 6 yrs for Sanchez w/ history of both elbow and shoulder injuries or 6 yrs for Hamilton w/ his personal deamons would have been crazy, and thats probably what it would have taken to get either to come to Boston. But my main point to this discussion is its always easier to say we should have gotten this guy instead, but in reality these aren't always options available to Ben and Red Sox. I know this is hard to believe for RS fans, but there are players who want no part of playing in Boston and what that involves.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     But my main point to this discussion is its always easier to say we should have gotten this guy instead, but in reality these aren't always options available to Ben and Red Sox. I know this is hard to believe for RS fans, but there are players who want no part of playing in Boston and what that involves.

    I understand that we may have had to way overpay more than what some of these FAs ended up signing for to get them to play here.

    I know some of the options may not have been options at all, but that shouldn't stop someone from being able to say, "I wish we had gotten those guys instead of these guys at about the same cost." That was my point. In some ways all of our positions are just conjecture. For all we know, maybe McCarthy would have wanted to play for us for slightly less money... doubtful, but we just don't know.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Some comments on latest developments.

    Drew.  Blah.  I don't think this is an upgrade on last year.

    Some keep talking about the poor free agent market being the focus of our problem.  I think there were and are plenty of good trades out there.  As an example, why aren't we in there on the knuckler on the Mets?  We more than most should know the value of a knuckler, he could have eaten up a lot of innings, and I don't know his age, but a pitcher like this could be part of the future despite his age.  Furthermore, the Mets wanted a catcher to be coming back. We have a few of those.

    I do think "fixing the clubhouse" or "attitude" may be part of RS plan.  But once again, bringing in a bunch of average players for a couple of years doesn't seem exciting or imaginative.  I didn't want Grienke or Hamilton, but I did want Trumbo or McCarthy or someone like them.

    I too hope I'm wrong about this.  I was a big BV supporter last year, and have admitted freely that was a big mistake.  I'll admit I'm wrong about this too, but right now I don't see us making the playoffs.  The only way I see that happening is if our pitching is HUGE.   

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Here's a preliminary comparitive look at 2013 as compared to 2012 (offense only):

    2012 by position: (PAs)

    C   .215/.279/.429/.708  ( Salty 388, Shopp 155, Lava 99)

    1B .289/.337/.459/.795  (AGon 455, Loney 104, Gomez 58, Youk 44, Papi 30)

    2B .281/.337/.431/.768  (Pedey 615, Ciriaco 47, Punto 42)

    3B .257/.303/.400/.703  (Midd 279, Ciriaco 136, Youk 120, Punto 67, DV 28)

    SS .241/.278/.365/.642   (Aviles 517, Iggy 76, Ciriaco 40, Punto 20)

    LF .267/.332/.411/.744  (Nava 288, Pods 116, CC 124, Ross 73, DMac 65)

    CF .264/.299/.354/.654  (Ells 318, Byrd 101, Pods 74, Kalish 65, Sween 61)

    RF .261/.319/.431/.751  (Ross 374, Sween 152, AGon 65, Kalish 30)

    DH .278/.360/.473/.833  (Papi 351, Lava 65, Ross 53, Salty 47, Ciriaco 37)

     

    A quick look at 2013 (I will do a complete analysis this spring):

    Stats are OPS from 2011-2012 combined, unless otherwise noted.

     

    Catcher (.708 in 2012):

    Salty vs RHPs .782

    Ross vs LHPs .674   (vs RHPs .826) - could see Salty traded and Lava vs LHPs.

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but Ross will not likely macth Shopp's O.

     

    1B (.795 in 2012):

    Napoli vs RHPs .955/vs LHPs .879

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but can he get 650 PAs?

     

    2B (.768 in '12):

    Pedey vs RHPs .789/vs LHPs .934

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    3B (.703 in '12):

    Middlebrooks vs RHPs .798/vs LHPs .906

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but much is unknown.

     

    SS (.642 in '12)

    S Drew .714 /vs LHPs.617

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but...

     

    LF (.744 in '12):

    Nava vs RHPs  .797

    Gomes vs LHPs .935

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    CF (.654 in '12):

    Ells vs RHPs .886 / vs LHPs .774

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    RF (.751 in '12):

    Victorino vs RHPs .705 /vs LHPs .960

    * Some potenetial for gains here.

     

    DH (.833 in '12):

    Papi vs RHPs .977 /vs LHPs .988

    * Much potenetial for gains here if Papi can stay healthy.

     

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains, but there is also potential for decline at several positions, especially if we have just half the injuries we has last year.

    The big question is how much can we improve, and will it be enough to win 20+ more games.

    With no apparent gains in overall defense or pitching, I still don't see a SERIOUS contender here.

     

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    :)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     But my main point to this discussion is its always easier to say we should have gotten this guy instead, but in reality these aren't always options available to Ben and Red Sox. I know this is hard to believe for RS fans, but there are players who want no part of playing in Boston and what that involves.

    I understand that we may have had to way overpay more than what some of these FAs ended up signing for to get them to play here.

    I know some of the options may not have been options at all, but that shouldn't stop someone from being able to say, "I wish we had gotten those guys instead of these guys at about the same cost." That was my point. In some ways all of our positions are just conjecture. For all we know, maybe McCarthy would have wanted to play for us for slightly less money... doubtful, but we just don't know.

    [/QUOTE]


    Just think its a lot of wasted energy talking about players who have already signed elsewhere. Think a better idea to discuss who is still out there and might help RS. You hear rumors about players McCarthy "wanted to stay on west coast" Sanchez "wanted to return to Detroit" and are usually out there for a reason, they want it to get those those teams. If you know a player wants to sign w/ you, much easier sign. Sometimes you can blow a player w/ offer Yanks=CC heard same rumors that CC wanted west coast but Yanks just blew away other offers, but you'd better really believe in a player to do this. There were no CC's in this FA class. Like I said previously if Cain or Hammels had made it to FA this year IMO RS would have been all in for either of those 2. I can't fault Ben for what he did this off season, he probably did the best of what he had in front of him, he went high character + low yrs = no draft picks and payroll flexibility in the future.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     But my main point to this discussion is its always easier to say we should have gotten this guy instead, but in reality these aren't always options available to Ben and Red Sox. I know this is hard to believe for RS fans, but there are players who want no part of playing in Boston and what that involves.

    I understand that we may have had to way overpay more than what some of these FAs ended up signing for to get them to play here.

    I know some of the options may not have been options at all, but that shouldn't stop someone from being able to say, "I wish we had gotten those guys instead of these guys at about the same cost." That was my point. In some ways all of our positions are just conjecture. For all we know, maybe McCarthy would have wanted to play for us for slightly less money... doubtful, but we just don't know.

    [/QUOTE]


    Just think its a lot of wasted energy talking about players who have already signed elsewhere. Think a better idea to discuss who is still out there and might help RS. You hear rumors about players McCarthy "wanted to stay on west coast" Sanchez "wanted to return to Detroit" and are usually out there for a reason, they want it to get those those teams. If you know a player wants to sign w/ you, much easier sign. Sometimes you can blow a player w/ offer Yanks=CC heard same rumors that CC wanted west coast but Yanks just blew away other offers, but you'd better really believe in a player to do this. There were no CC's in this FA class. Like I said previously if Cain or Hammels had made it to FA this year IMO RS would have been all in for either of those 2. I can't fault Ben for what he did this off season, he probably did the best of what he had in front of him, he went high character + low yrs = no draft picks and payroll flexibility in the future.

    [/QUOTE]

    I did not say we could have gotten those "other guys". I said, I wish we could have gotten them and that I realized maybe some were never an option for various reasons.

    Even if none of my guys would have signed here for just a little more cash, my alternative plans were not to just sign the "best of the rest" of a weak FA class who are willing to sign for less than 4 years. In fact, that would be my last choice out of maybe hundreds of different plans.

    I hope I eat my words, and this team wins a ring next year, but I really think that is highly improbable (less than a 1% chance). I don't think the majority of fans are happy with these moves and think we have a legitimate chance at the playoffs, let alone a ring.  I don't buy the notion that Ben had to sooth the dumb fans to get them to watch in 2012. We finished in last place this year. Do you really think that many fans would stop following the Sox had we not signed Victorino, Dempster, and Drew? Or, had we signed Hamilton or A Sanchez instead?

    I really think if we had made a couple of trades for younger stars and maybe got a couple of the younger FAs I mentioned (even if it took outbidding the others by $2-3M), the fans would have loved the fact that we were younger and moving towards a much brighter future. Instead we got another "bridge year" or two to look forward to.

    The only silver klining I can imagine now, is that when we are 14 games behind at the deadline, we can trade all these stiffs and look much better for 2015 and beyond.

    I'm tired of praying for a miraculous confluence of everyone having a healthy and productive season. I'd gladly sacrifice a bad season in 2013 (although my plans would not have made us "bad" in 2013) to position ourselves for a stronger future. These signings do nothing for 2014 or 2015 but waste limited budget capital.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    I do not understand why Cherington is making an effort to get a deal done with Napoli.  He's basically trying to finance a car with a history of mechanical and technical problems.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I do not understand why Cherington is making an effort to get a deal done with Napoli.  He's basically trying to finance a car with a history of mechanical and technical problems.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Other than the Uehara signing, I viewed the Napoli signing as the best fit of all Ben's deals. I would not have gone higher than $33M/3 (before the physical), but at least I can understand Ben's thinking on this one.

    I would stick to my guns now that his health is a major question (as opposed to a moderate question before the news). Offer a 3rd year club option with a $2M buyout.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I do not understand why Cherington is making an effort to get a deal done with Napoli.  He's basically trying to finance a car with a history of mechanical and technical problems.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Other than the Uehara signing, I viewed the Napoli signing as the best fit of all Ben's deals. I would not have gone higher than $33M/3 (before the physical), but at least I can understand Ben's thinking on this one.

    I would stick to my guns now that his health is a major question (as opposed to a moderate question before the news). Offer a 3rd year club option with a $2M buyout.

    [/QUOTE]


    Good morning moonslav59   :)

    Thank you again for your feedback.  Do you think the Red Sox will go after a few more free agent pitchers such as Marcum?  

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I do not understand why Cherington is making an effort to get a deal done with Napoli.  He's basically trying to finance a car with a history of mechanical and technical problems.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Other than the Uehara signing, I viewed the Napoli signing as the best fit of all Ben's deals. I would not have gone higher than $33M/3 (before the physical), but at least I can understand Ben's thinking on this one.

    I would stick to my guns now that his health is a major question (as opposed to a moderate question before the news). Offer a 3rd year club option with a $2M buyout.

    [/QUOTE]


    Good morning moonslav59   :)

    Thank you again for your feedback.  Do you think the Red Sox will go after a few more free agent pitchers such as Marcum?  

    [/QUOTE]

    I think we find a cheap LHBing OF bat and that's it.

    If Naps does not sign, we'll get LaRoche or trade for Morales.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I do not understand why Cherington is making an effort to get a deal done with Napoli.  He's basically trying to finance a car with a history of mechanical and technical problems.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Other than the Uehara signing, I viewed the Napoli signing as the best fit of all Ben's deals. I would not have gone higher than $33M/3 (before the physical), but at least I can understand Ben's thinking on this one.

    I would stick to my guns now that his health is a major question (as opposed to a moderate question before the news). Offer a 3rd year club option with a $2M buyout.

    [/QUOTE]


    +1 if his health is an issue the contract definitely needs to be retooled to better protect us. throw in incentives for him to make all the money back if he plays a lot of games.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    If his hip is the issue, playing Naps at catcher should only happen in NL parks (Papi to 1B) or as an emergency 3rd catcher.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If his hip is the issue, playing Naps at catcher should only happen in NL parks (Papi to 1B) or as an emergency 3rd catcher.

    [/QUOTE]


    depending on the severity of the damage i would say he shouldn't even be signed. we have options for 1st base but all will require prospects (in 1 way or another)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If his hip is the issue, playing Naps at catcher should only happen in NL parks (Papi to 1B) or as an emergency 3rd catcher.

    [/QUOTE]


    depending on the severity of the damage i would say he shouldn't even be signed. we have options for 1st base but all will require prospects (in 1 way or another)

    [/QUOTE]

    Not signing LaRoche.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think the hip issue becomes even more pronounced when playing 1st. Stretching for the ball. Diving side to side on grounders....etc. Look at what has happened to Lowell and Arod. Ergo the value of a young 3rd baseman like Middlebrooks, possibly the most valuable player on the team in terms of trade worth at this point.

    We haven't lost any picks at all as far as I can see regarding the FA signings. It's effectively only money. Am I excited....? No. Would I rather see them sign no one? No. And we are positioned very well for the future in terms of both pitching and positional prospects.

    The team will be a a group of overachievers in 2013 IMO. Lot's of potential comeback stories. At least we have a team worth watching.

    If we win with this team it will be even more fun. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If his hip is the issue, playing Naps at catcher should only happen in NL parks (Papi to 1B) or as an emergency 3rd catcher.

    [/QUOTE]


    depending on the severity of the damage i would say he shouldn't even be signed. we have options for 1st base but all will require prospects (in 1 way or another)

    [/QUOTE]

    Not signing LaRoche.

    [/QUOTE]


    laroche, swisher, morales or any other trade target will cost us prospects. the only other 1Bs available on the FA market is............?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think the hip issue becomes even more pronounced when playing 1st. Stretching for the ball. Diving side to side on grounders....etc. Look at what has happened to Lowell and Arod. Ergo the value of a young 3rd baseman like Middlebrooks, possibly the most valuable player on the team in terms of trade worth at this point.

    We haven't lost any picks at all as far as I can see regarding the FA signings. It's effectively only money. Am I excited....? No. Would I rather see them sign no one? No. And we are positioned very well for the future in terms of both pitching and positional prospects.

    The team will be a a group of overachievers in 2013 IMO. Lot's of potential comeback stories. At least we have a team worth watching.

    If we win with this team it will be even more fun. 

    [/QUOTE]


    It would be good to have a back-up at first. Berkman?? Morales?? I like Napoli's numbers but odds are that even if he agrees to two years, he will not be available for the entire season.

    I think WMB will be great. At one point last season when he first came up and started hitting the cover off the ball, he was being talked about in the same breath as Trout and Harper.

    I am not in favor of moving WMB, but it would make sense at some point to shift Bogaerts to another position, if he does not project well as a defensive SS. Obviously, he would have to go to one of the corners. Do you trade WMB and prepare Bogaerts for 3rd?

    I have said many times that I would like to see Morales at first at some point, even as a back-up to Napoli.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think the hip issue becomes even more pronounced when playing 1st. Stretching for the ball. Diving side to side on grounders....etc. Look at what has happened to Lowell and Arod. Ergo the value of a young 3rd baseman like Middlebrooks, possibly the most valuable player on the team in terms of trade worth at this point.

    We haven't lost any picks at all as far as I can see regarding the FA signings. It's effectively only money. Am I excited....? No. Would I rather see them sign no one? No. And we are positioned very well for the future in terms of both pitching and positional prospects.

    The team will be a a group of overachievers in 2013 IMO. Lot's of potential comeback stories. At least we have a team worth watching.

    If we win with this team it will be even more fun. 

    [/QUOTE]


    It would be good to have a back-up at first. Berkman?? Morales?? I like Napoli's numbers but odds are that even if he agrees to two years, he will not be available for the entire season.

    I think WMB will be great. At one point last season when he first came up and started hitting the cover off the ball, he was being talked about in the same breath as Trout and Harper.

    I am not in favor of moving WMB, but it would make sense at some point to shift Bogaerts to another position, if he does not project well as a defensive SS. Obviously, he would have to go to one of the corners. Do you trade WMB and prepare Bogaerts for 3rd?

    I have said many times that I would like to see Morales at first at some point, even as a back-up to Napoli.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think the overachievers will be fun to watch too!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    laroche, swisher, morales or any other trade target will cost us prospects. the only other 1Bs available on the FA market is............?

     

    Berkman, Giambi, Huff, Kotchman, C Lee, Overbay, Snyder, Rivera, McGehee, M Cairo

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    laroche, swisher, morales or any other trade target will cost us prospects. the only other 1Bs available on the FA market is............?

     

    Berkman, Giambi, Huff, Kotchman, C Lee, Overbay, Snyder, Rivera, McGehee, M Cairo

    [/QUOTE]


    and aside from berkman and maybe 1 other if the Naps deal falls through we're going to have to give up prospects to get another servicable 1Bman. Unless we're willing to give Sands a shot..

     

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