A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Bailey finally looked human last night. Maybe this game will ignite the Rays to make another improbable playoff push.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Well, it looks like Lava and Iggy did well last night.  Let's hope they get in a rhythm and keep it going through the last few games.  I am actually feeling positive about the future.  I agree on what's been said before here--if we can establish about three 1's or 2's at the top of our order, we can have a great start on the future.  If Lackey gets himself ready in the spring, I think he can be a 12-14 game winner for us.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I agree. I am optimistic about Lackey. It just seems strange that he is now our highest paid player.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Anyone notice the A's played Reddick, Moss, Crisp, Kottaras, and C. Carter tonight.

    Only 1 got a hit: Moss with a solo blast.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]Anyone notice the A's played Reddick, Moss, Crisp, Kottaras, and C. Carter tonight.

    Only 1 got a hit: Moss with a solo blast.[/QUOTE]
    For what it's worth, Oakland's Chris Carter is not the same Chris Carter who played the Red Sox:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartech01.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartech02.shtml

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]Anyone notice the A's played Reddick, Moss, Crisp, Kottaras, and C. Carter tonight.

    Only 1 got a hit: Moss with a solo blast.[/QUOTE]
    For what it's worth, Oakland's Chris Carter is not the same Chris Carter who played the Red Sox:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartech01.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartech02.shtml

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from GreenPartyCelt. Show GreenPartyCelt's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Although Reddick has had a great year, and tonight does not diminish that year and the questionable nature of that Bailey-Reddick swap (if Bailey can stay healthy for a full season,  maybe he can be a very good closer...but for now it still looks like another bad trade for the  RS), he got the Golden Sombrero tonight (3 from CC and 1 from Soriano).....And the Yanks get a little MO after losing 4 one-run games back in Oakland in late July....

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Reddick is now under .250, and his OBP is headed towards .300. Even his SLG% is now below .470.

    Our RF'ers, combined this year, are at .265/.326/.439/.765.

    If Ross had not been forced to have almost 100 PAs in LF & CF instead of RF due to injuries to Ells, CC and others, our RF OPS would have been equal to or higher than Reddick's .780.

    (Sox RF'ers and Reddick both have 79 RBIs this year.)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    Before the 2011 season, I was excited when Boston got pitching coach, Curt Young from the Oakland A's.  In 2010, Oakland had the best ERA in the AL.  But after a year, Curt Young went back to Oakland and now the A's have the second-best ERA after the Rays.

    Does anyone know why Curt Young left Boston?  I wish he had stayed and help the staff more.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The key to the recovery is going to be patience.  I'm willing to take a couple of losing season while we rebuild, if it means we avoid the mess we got into this season.  I certainly hope we hold on to prospects such as Bogearts, Bradley, Barnes etc, and rebuild from within, as opposed to chasing other team's stars like Justin Upton.  We should have a nice high draft pick this year to add to our stash of prospects, and might add another high pick in next year's draft, which will essetially replenish our farm system.

    Now, the only way I would part with a good prospect is to acquire an established Ace, a piece that is key to our rebuilding process.  The team certainly doesn't have to go out and get this #1 this offseason, but eventually they are going to have to find that player.  I don't think either Lester or Buchholz can take that role, and it doesn't appear like we have a pitcher of that caliber in the farm system.

    What I think the Red Sox need to is focus on getting low-cost position players to platoon/compete for jobs with the younger guys.  In order to maintain some level of offensive potency, they should re-sign Cody Ross, and bring back or find a replacement for the bat of David Ortiz.  I view the team as having 5 open spots in their lineup next year (1B, SS, LF, RF, and DH) and I think at least two of them should go to proven Major League bats.  Otherwise, bring in a low cost veteran like Carlos Pena to compete with Mauro Gomez and Jerry Sands for the job.  At a low cost, Adam LaRoche could also be a nice option, especially if Ortiz walks, as Gomez and Sands could make capable members of a DH rotation.  At, SS, the team's best option might be to continue with an Aviles and Iglesias platoon, with Iglesias taking the starting job if he shows he can hit over .220.  As for free agents, perhaps the best of the lot would be our two former shortstops, Marco Scutaro and Alex Gonzalez.  In the outfield, re-signing Cody Ross appears to be a no-brainer.  As for the LF spot, a low-cost option to platoon with Ryan Kailish would be Scott Hairston of the Mets, he is a solid RH-hitter, and should be had for a fairly decent contract.  If they want a bigger signing, they could opt to sign Nick Swisher away from the Yankees, though that could end up costing them $15m+ over 3-4 years.  Swisher has been a productive player, and is a good leader in the clubhouse, so it might not be a bad investment on the part of the Red Sox.  Additionally, the Sox could try and add Michael Morse in a deal with the Nationals, who could part with Morse and prospects to acquire Jacoby Ellsbury, a guy they have had prior interest in.  Ellsbury seems likely to walk in the future, so I'm sure the Red Sox would and should pounce on an attractive offer this offseason.

    As far as pitching goes, the team does need to add a proven Major League arm in Free Agency.  Though the talent on the market is rather weak, pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Hiroki Kuroda would be nice options as #2-3 starters, and the Sox can afford to pay a little more to secure their services.  The team will also certainly add rotation depth with pitchers the caliber of say an Aaron Cook.  Perhaps the only area of the team that appears set for next year is the bullpen.  Andrew Bailey is entrenched as the closer, and the team has arms such as Miller, Tazawa, Mortenson, Hill, Breslow, Atchison, and Morales, as well as some arms in the farm.  

    The following is something to consider:

    Small money deals: Carlos Pena: 1 year 2m, Scott Hairston: 2yrs 8m, additional camp invites

    Mid/Big money deals: Edwin Jackson: 3yrs 39m, Cody Ross: 3yrs 21m, David Ortiz: 2yrs 28m

    Trades: Ellsbury for Michael Morse and a high level prospect, Deal spare parts (i.e Sweeney) for mid level prospects.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    We need to think about 2014 and beyond. While I do think we can compete in 2013 if we make a few key moves, we still won't be serious contenders for the ring. If we can move most of the following players for prospects or players that are under team control for several more years, we will be moving in teh right direction. We may also end up flipping some of the prospects for better younger players or a franchise type player.

    David Ortiz: Offer him $12.5M/1 or whatever the minimum deal amount needed so that if he refuses and signes elsewhere we get the compensatory draft pick.

    Players who will be free agents after 2013:

    Jacoby Ellsbury: Trading Ellsbury this winter makes a lot of sense. He must be traded before 2013 begins in order for the team getting him to keep the extra value attached to Jacoby due to compensatory draft choice the team will get if he walks after 2013. I am sure a contender would give a nice prospect or player with longer team control in return. Perhaps, a larger package would net us a key prospect or young franchise type pleyer.

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia: His stock is as high as it has been in years, and with Lava, Swihart and a couple other promising catcher prospects waiting in the wings, it makes sense to explore trading Salty for a prospect. I could also see us extending Salty and trading Lava. If Papi walks, we may keep both and use Lava as a DH vs RHPs.

    Craig Breslow: I like Breslow, but so do many GMs. I think it makes sense to package Craig to try and get a nice prospect or longer-term player.

    Ryan Sweeney: He would have been traded this past July had he not broke his own hand. While he'd make a nice 4th OF'er/defensive OF replacement for a team that may have some defensively challenged OF'ers in 2013 (Nava, Linares, Ross...), Sweeney does not fit into our longer-term plans. He will not bring much in return, but could be part of a larger deal or net us a low-level promising prospect.

    Rich Hill: Could be part of a package deal.

    Players who will be free agents after 2014:

    Andrew Bailey: When we traded for Bailey, we were looking to seriously compete in 2012 & 2013. That has changed. While Andrew is is also signed for 2014, his 2-year value to another team is worth more than his 1 year (2014) value to us. Some contending team would surely offer something nice for Bailey.

    Alfredo Aceves: As with Bailey, his value to another team looking to contend in 2013 and 2014 is more than his value to us. Plus, there seems to be other issues brewing between Alfredo and Sox management. It might be time to part ways and try and get a player under team control for 2015 or beyond.

    Mike Aviles: We have Iggy and Ciriaco for 2013, and Bogaerts and other SS prospects for 2014 and beyond. I don't see Aviles helping us as much as he could help another team at this point. He is a better option than some teams have for 2013, so I am sure some GM wants him.

    Andrew Miller: He has found a nice role in the pen. I think we could look to extend him, or we could give him a longer look next year before deciding. It might be best to wait until next July or winter to decide about extending or trading Andrew.

    Franklin Morales: I like Morales and want to keep him. I wouldn't look to trade him this winter, unless we can get a serious upgrade at starting pitcher.

    Other special cases:

    John Lackey: After proving he is healthy, we may look to deal him next July or winter. He now has the added value of the injury option year at minimum wage that brings down his cost per years of service quite a bit.

    Scott Atchison: While he still has 5 years of team control and has pitched very well for us, his age is an issue. I think we could get a nice prospect for Scott.

    Mauro Gomez: I don't think he is the answer at 1B, so I'd think about including him in a bigger package might make sense.

    Jose Iglesias: I do not want to trade Iggy, but I feel like Sox management does not like the idea of a low offesne SS. Unless they change their view, we might as well trade Iggy if we aren't going to play him.

    Garin Cecchini: I really like this kid, but unless we move him or Middlebrooks to 1B, he is blocked.

    Sean Coyle, Jose Vinicio, T. W. Lin & other possible blocked prospects: Depending on who we trade from the above list or not, we might look to deal some of these blocked prospects as well.

     

     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to titletownfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]The key to the recovery is going to be patience.  I'm willing to take a couple of losing season while we rebuild, if it means we avoid the mess we got into this season.  I certainly hope we hold on to prospects such as Bogearts, Bradley, Barnes etc, and rebuild from within, as opposed to chasing other team's stars like Justin Upton.  We should have a nice high draft pick this year to add to our stash of prospects, and might add another high pick in next year's draft, which will essetially replenish our farm system.

    Now, the only way I would part with a good prospect is to acquire an established Ace, a piece that is key to our rebuilding process.  The team certainly doesn't have to go out and get this #1 this offseason, but eventually they are going to have to find that player.  I don't think either Lester or Buchholz can take that role, and it doesn't appear like we have a pitcher of that caliber in the farm system.

    What I think the Red Sox need to is focus on getting low-cost position players to platoon/compete for jobs with the younger guys.  In order to maintain some level of offensive potency, they should re-sign Cody Ross, and bring back or find a replacement for the bat of David Ortiz.  I view the team as having 5 open spots in their lineup next year (1B, SS, LF, RF, and DH) and I think at least two of them should go to proven Major League bats.  Otherwise, bring in a low cost veteran like Carlos Pena to compete with Mauro Gomez and Jerry Sands for the job.  At a low cost, Adam LaRoche could also be a nice option, especially if Ortiz walks, as Gomez and Sands could make capable members of a DH rotation.  At, SS, the team's best option might be to continue with an Aviles and Iglesias platoon, with Iglesias taking the starting job if he shows he can hit over .220.  As for free agents, perhaps the best of the lot would be our two former shortstops, Marco Scutaro and Alex Gonzalez.  In the outfield, re-signing Cody Ross appears to be a no-brainer.  As for the LF spot, a low-cost option to platoon with Ryan Kailish would be Scott Hairston of the Mets, he is a solid RH-hitter, and should be had for a fairly decent contract.  If they want a bigger signing, they could opt to sign Nick Swisher away from the Yankees, though that could end up costing them $15m+ over 3-4 years.  Swisher has been a productive player, and is a good leader in the clubhouse, so it might not be a bad investment on the part of the Red Sox.  Additionally, the Sox could try and add Michael Morse in a deal with the Nationals, who could part with Morse and prospects to acquire Jacoby Ellsbury, a guy they have had prior interest in.  Ellsbury seems likely to walk in the future, so I'm sure the Red Sox would and should pounce on an attractive offer this offseason.

    As far as pitching goes, the team does need to add a proven Major League arm in Free Agency.  Though the talent on the market is rather weak, pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Hiroki Kuroda would be nice options as #2-3 starters, and the Sox can afford to pay a little more to secure their services.  The team will also certainly add rotation depth with pitchers the caliber of say an Aaron Cook.  Perhaps the only area of the team that appears set for next year is the bullpen.  Andrew Bailey is entrenched as the closer, and the team has arms such as Miller, Tazawa, Mortenson, Hill, Breslow, Atchison, and Morales, as well as some arms in the farm.  

    The following is something to consider:

    Small money deals: Carlos Pena: 1 year 2m, Scott Hairston: 2yrs 8m, additional camp invites

    Mid/Big money deals: Edwin Jackson: 3yrs 39m, Cody Ross: 3yrs 21m, David Ortiz: 2yrs 28m

    Trades: Ellsbury for Michael Morse and a high level prospect, Deal spare parts (i.e Sweeney) for mid level prospects.[/QUOTE]Good post. Couldn't agree more.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]We need to think about 2014 and beyond. While I do think we can compete in 2013 if we make a few key moves, we still won't be serious contenders for the ring. If we can move most of the following players for prospects or players that are under team control for several more years, we will be moving in teh right direction. We may also end up flipping some of the prospects for better younger players or a franchise type player.

    David Ortiz: Offer him $12.5M/1 or whatever the minimum deal amount needed so that if he refuses and signes elsewhere we get the compensatory draft pick.

    Players who will be free agents after 2013:

    Jacoby Ellsbury: Trading Ellsbury this winter makes a lot of sense. He must be traded before 2013 begins in order for the team getting him to keep the extra value attached to Jacoby due to compensatory draft choice the team will get if he walks after 2013. I am sure a contender would give a nice prospect or player with longer team control in return. Perhaps, a larger package would net us a key prospect or young franchise type pleyer.

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia: His stock is as high as it has been in years, and with Lava, Swihart and a couple other promising catcher prospects waiting in the wings, it makes sense to explore trading Salty for a prospect. I could also see us extending Salty and trading Lava. If Papi walks, we may keep both and use Lava as a DH vs RHPs.

    Craig Breslow: I like Breslow, but so do many GMs. I think it makes sense to package Craig to try and get a nice prospect or longer-term player.

    Ryan Sweeney: He would have been traded this past July had he not broke his own hand. While he'd make a nice 4th OF'er/defensive OF replacement for a team that may have some defensively challenged OF'ers in 2013 (Nava, Linares, Ross...), Sweeney does not fit into our longer-term plans. He will not bring much in return, but could be part of a larger deal or net us a low-level promising prospect.

    Rich Hill: Could be part of a package deal.

    Players who will be free agents after 2014:

    Andrew Bailey: When we traded for Bailey, we were looking to seriously compete in 2012 & 2013. That has changed. While Andrew is is also signed for 2014, his 2-year value to another team is worth more than his 1 year (2014) value to us. Some contending team would surely offer something nice for Bailey.

    Alfredo Aceves: As with Bailey, his value to another team looking to contend in 2013 and 2014 is more than his value to us. Plus, there seems to be other issues brewing between Alfredo and Sox management. It might be time to part ways and try and get a player under team control for 2015 or beyond.

    Mike Aviles: We have Iggy and Ciriaco for 2013, and Bogaerts and other SS prospects for 2014 and beyond. I don't see Aviles helping us as much as he could help another team at this point. He is a better option than some teams have for 2013, so I am sure some GM wants him.

    Andrew Miller: He has found a nice role in the pen. I think we could look to extend him, or we could give him a longer look next year before deciding. It might be best to wait until next July or winter to decide about extending or trading Andrew.

    Franklin Morales: I like Morales and want to keep him. I wouldn't look to trade him this winter, unless we can get a serious upgrade at starting pitcher.

    Other special cases:

    John Lackey: After proving he is healthy, we may look to deal him next July or winter. He now has the added value of the injury option year at minimum wage that brings down his cost per years of service quite a bit.

    Scott Atchison: While he still has 5 years of team control and has pitched very well for us, his age is an issue. I think we could get a nice prospect for Scott.

    Mauro Gomez: I don't think he is the answer at 1B, so I'd think about including him in a bigger package might make sense.

    Jose Iglesias: I do not want to trade Iggy, but I feel like Sox management does not like the idea of a low offesne SS. Unless they change their view, we might as well trade Iggy if we aren't going to play him.

    Garin Cecchini: I really like this kid, but unless we move him or Middlebrooks to 1B, he is blocked.

    Sean Coyle, Jose Vinicio, T. W. Lin & other possible blocked prospects: Depending on who we trade from the above list or not, we might look to deal some of these blocked prospects as well.[/QUOTE]These are all good points moon. One little quibble though. Linares is hardly a defensively challenged outfielder. I believe he led all Red Sox minor leaguers in outfield assists this year.


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    These are all good points moon. One little quibble though. Linares is hardly a defensively challenged outfielder. I believe he led all Red Sox minor leaguers in outfield assists this year.

     

    I am not an expert on minor league players.  I thought I heard he was not a great fielder, but upon checking, reports show he is very good.

    I stand corrected.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In the past 12 months the Red Sox have shed Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, Marco Scutaro and Bobby Jenks. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be gone shortly while David Ortiz and Cody Ross have uncertain futures with the Red Sox.

    That's a ton of talent to replace.

    The Red Sox face tough decisions on striking the proper balance between building from within, trading prospects and others for established players, and again likely overpaying in the free agent market.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In the past 12 months the Red Sox have shed Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, Marco Scutaro and Bobby Jenks. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be gone shortly while David Ortiz and Cody Ross have uncertain futures with the Red Sox.

    That's a ton of talent to replace.

    The Red Sox face tough decisions on striking the proper balance between building from within, trading prospects and others for established players, and again likely overpaying in the free agent market.

     

    I do not think we will trade all the players I listed here: 

    Jacoby EllsburyJarrod Saltalamacchia, Craig Breslow, Ryan Sweeney, Rich Hill, Andrew Bailey, Alfredo Aceves, Mike AvilesAndrew Miller, Franklin Morales,  John Lackey, Scott Atchison, Mauro Gomez, Jose Iglesias, Garin Cecchini,  Sean Coyle, Jose Vinicio, T. W. Lin & other possible blocked prospects.

    Let's say we just trade the ones bolded this winter. We get a bunch of prospects and flip some of them along with some of our own and trade for Justin Upton and Brett Anderson. We then sign Brandon McCarthy (3-4 yrs), Cody Ross (1-3 yrs), Joel Peralta (1-2 yrs), Pods (1 yr), and David Ortiz (1-2 yrs). This is what our roster would look like.

    C:  Salty/Lava

    DH: Papi/Lava/Sands

    1B: Gomez/Sands

    2B: Pedey/Ciriaco

    3B: Midds/Ciriaco (Valencia)

    SS: Iggy/Ciriaco

    LF: Ross/Nava/Linares

    CF: Pods/Linares/Kalish/Bradley

    RF: Upton/Brentz/Linares

    SP: Buch, Lest, Anderson, Lackey, Doubront, Morales, Webster, de la Rosa, Britton, Workman

    RP: Bailey, Peralta, Miller, Mortensen, Tazawa, Melancon, Bard, Carpenter, Stewart, Beato, Wilson

    At the July 2013 deadline, we look to possibly trade Lackey and decide to extend or trade Salty. Next winter, we look to make a couple key FA signings and maybeextend or deal Bailey, Miller and Morales.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Ooops, I boled everyone. I meant to say we might possibly just trade: Ellsbury, Breslow, Sweeney, Hill, Aceves, Aviles, & Atchison.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Ooops, I boled everyone. I meant to say we might possibly just trade: Ellsbury, Breslow, Sweeney, Hill, Aceves, Aviles, & Atchison.


    Ellsbury to the Reds for their top two pitching prospects. Then we might have a pitching staff next year.

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I could see Ellsbury going to ...

    Cincinatti: maybe 2 of: Corcino, Cingrano,  Lotzkar?

    San Francisco: maybe for Sergio Romo & Hector Sanchez? (or 2 of Crick, Stratton, or Blackburn?)

    Seattle: Maybe for Jason Vargas, but he's a FA after 2013 as well. Maybe Hultzen or Walker?

    Oakland: Maybe in a package for Brett Anderson?

    White Sox: Maybe for Floyd and Crain, although both are FAs after 2013 as well.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Is there any chance Aceves returns next year?

    I give it less than a 1 % chance.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Is there any chance Aceves returns next year?

    I give it less than a 1 % chance.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It's sounding more and more like Aceves is a club-house problem, but if that is overblown, or if it's mostly a personality conflict with a manager who will not return, I'd like to keep him.  Even with his poor year, his career stats are great.  Closer was not a good role for him, but even in 2012, his WHIP was not that bad.  He's too talented to just be shown the door.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to slomag's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Is there any chance Aceves returns next year?

    I give it less than a 1 % chance.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It's sounding more and more like Aceves is a club-house problem, but if that is overblown, or if it's mostly a personality conflict with a manager who will not return, I'd like to keep him.  Even with his poor year, his career stats are great.  Closer was not a good role for him, but even in 2012, his WHIP was not that bad.  He's too talented to just be shown the door.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I never said give him away. Alfredo has high value in the right role. If we don't get value in return, I'd keep him here, but I think several GMs know his value and will make decent offers.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    We need to think about 2014 and beyond. While I do think we can compete in 2013 if we make a few key moves, we still won't be serious contenders for the ring. If we can move most of the following players for prospects or players that are under team control for several more years, we will be moving in teh right direction. We may also end up flipping some of the prospects for better younger players or a franchise type player.

    David Ortiz: Offer him $12.5M/1 or whatever the minimum deal amount needed so that if he refuses and signes elsewhere we get the compensatory draft pick.

    Players who will be free agents after 2013:

    Jacoby Ellsbury: Trading Ellsbury this winter makes a lot of sense. He must be traded before 2013 begins in order for the team getting him to keep the extra value attached to Jacoby due to compensatory draft choice the team will get if he walks after 2013. I am sure a contender would give a nice prospect or player with longer team control in return. Perhaps, a larger package would net us a key prospect or young franchise type pleyer.

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia: His stock is as high as it has been in years, and with Lava, Swihart and a couple other promising catcher prospects waiting in the wings, it makes sense to explore trading Salty for a prospect. I could also see us extending Salty and trading Lava. If Papi walks, we may keep both and use Lava as a DH vs RHPs.

    Craig Breslow: I like Breslow, but so do many GMs. I think it makes sense to package Craig to try and get a nice prospect or longer-term player.

    Ryan Sweeney: He would have been traded this past July had he not broke his own hand. While he'd make a nice 4th OF'er/defensive OF replacement for a team that may have some defensively challenged OF'ers in 2013 (Nava, Linares, Ross...), Sweeney does not fit into our longer-term plans. He will not bring much in return, but could be part of a larger deal or net us a low-level promising prospect.

    Rich Hill: Could be part of a package deal.

    Players who will be free agents after 2014:

    Andrew Bailey: When we traded for Bailey, we were looking to seriously compete in 2012 & 2013. That has changed. While Andrew is is also signed for 2014, his 2-year value to another team is worth more than his 1 year (2014) value to us. Some contending team would surely offer something nice for Bailey.

    Alfredo Aceves: As with Bailey, his value to another team looking to contend in 2013 and 2014 is more than his value to us. Plus, there seems to be other issues brewing between Alfredo and Sox management. It might be time to part ways and try and get a player under team control for 2015 or beyond.

    Mike Aviles: We have Iggy and Ciriaco for 2013, and Bogaerts and other SS prospects for 2014 and beyond. I don't see Aviles helping us as much as he could help another team at this point. He is a better option than some teams have for 2013, so I am sure some GM wants him.

    Andrew Miller: He has found a nice role in the pen. I think we could look to extend him, or we could give him a longer look next year before deciding. It might be best to wait until next July or winter to decide about extending or trading Andrew.

    Franklin Morales: I like Morales and want to keep him. I wouldn't look to trade him this winter, unless we can get a serious upgrade at starting pitcher.

    Other special cases:

    John Lackey: After proving he is healthy, we may look to deal him next July or winter. He now has the added value of the injury option year at minimum wage that brings down his cost per years of service quite a bit.

    Scott Atchison: While he still has 5 years of team control and has pitched very well for us, his age is an issue. I think we could get a nice prospect for Scott.

    Mauro Gomez: I don't think he is the answer at 1B, so I'd think about including him in a bigger package might make sense.

    Jose Iglesias: I do not want to trade Iggy, but I feel like Sox management does not like the idea of a low offesne SS. Unless they change their view, we might as well trade Iggy if we aren't going to play him.

    Garin Cecchini: I really like this kid, but unless we move him or Middlebrooks to 1B, he is blocked.

    Sean Coyle, Jose Vinicio, T. W. Lin & other possible blocked prospects: Depending on who we trade from the above list or not, we might look to deal some of these blocked prospects as well.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You left out Jon Lester maybe after 2013, and def after 2014. A big omission and prob the biggest decision as far as trades go this offseason. Will he bounce back to the old Jon Lester in 13? At which case we pick up his option for 14, or will he be a 500 pitcher and we don,t pick it up. We then would recieve nothing for him. It,s a tough call. If I could get a b plus pitching prospect this off season I wouldseriously consider it if I,m the RS

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    You left out Jon Lester maybe after 2013, and def after 2014. A big omission and prob the biggest decision as far as trades go this offseason. Will he bounce back to the old Jon Lester in 13? At which case we pick up his option for 14, or will he be a 500 pitcher and we don,t pick it up. We then would recieve nothing for him. It,s a tough call. If I could get a b plus pitching prospect this off season I wouldseriously consider it if I,m the RS


    I think Lester bounces back. This year has really been an aberration for him. I think a lot of how he does next year is going to have to do with the coaching staff. If the Sox bring in Beyeler and his staff Lester might do very well.

     

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