In response to moonslav59's comment:
Letting prospects go and aquiring prospects is always a gamble. some are more "surer bets" as you say moon, but still a gamble.
All they can do is evealuate all the factors in each situation the best they can and live with their choice.
I wouldnt give up any pitching prospects unless its for a proven commodity that will produce right away.
I guess what I am saying is that I'd rather have 5 pitchers with a 50% chance at making it big over 10 pitchers with a 25% chance.
I'm oversimplifying, but that is basically my position.
At what age or point do you decide what percentage to place on these young men? What Im saying is that unless your name is Strasburg, its so hard to determine whos going to make it an who isnt. We all thought Bowden was going to be here when his numbers were right in line with Buchholz in AA and AAA. Zach Stewert was and is pitching great in AAA, so most considered him a high percentage guy in MLB. Hes done nothing at all and is very hittable in MLB.
I do understand what your saying Moon and agree to a certain point, but Unless your a Felix Hernandez or a Stephen Strasburg its just too hard to put a definite percentage of likelihood who will make it and who wont. Some kids come out of nowhere and surprise you.