Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I
posted at 9/27/2012 2:41 AM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
At what age or point do you decide what percentage to place on these young men? What Im saying is that unless your name is Strasburg, its so hard to determine whos going to make it an who isnt. We all thought Bowden was going to be here when his numbers were right in line with Buchholz in AA and AAA. Zach Stewert was and is pitching great in AAA, so most considered him a high percentage guy in MLB. Hes done nothing at all and is very hittable in MLB.
I do understand what your saying Moon and agree to a certain point, but Unless your a Felix Hernandez or a Stephen Strasburg its just too hard to put a definite percentage of likelihood who will make it and who wont. Some kids come out of nowhere and surprise you.
I understand that if you see it like this, you'd want to maximize the quantity of quality prospect pitchers to improve the odds, but surely some prospects appear to have a better chance than others. Sure, some guys that look like clear choices end up failing, but more often than not, the higher ranked pitching prospects succeed more than the lower ranked ones, at least at the same age and development stages in their careers.
Right now, we have a pretty good mix of young starters at various stages of development. I wouldn't mind us not trading any of them and giving them all a longer look, but I'd like to see 1-2 closer-to-ML-ready excellent pitching prospects in our system rather than the dozen or so longer-range or not really excellent prospects. Just a little more quality over quantity.
I realize we could guess wrong, just as keeping some of these kids could go wrong too, if their stock falls next year. In a perfect world, I'd like to trade just positional player and maybe a lower level pitching prospect for a better pitcher, but I am not sure how realistic that is. In theory, we should be able to trade Brentz and Pimental for a much better pitching prospect than Stolmy, right?
If we could trade BB and SP for a better pitching prospect I would pull that trigger (not for another RF'er). After the big trade we now have Barnes, De La Rosa, Webster, on the cusp of better than average success...Britton, Workman, Ranaudo are of the 2nd tier middle to bottom rotation types...Now they could all prove me wrong, but from what Ive seen from them (Live, Video, Articles) this is where Id put them...