A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Sox roster is probably pretty close to set. Some questions remain about who might be the 24th or 25th man on opening day, and who might not be on the 40 man roster by opening day, but the team we see now, is likely the one we start the year with.

    There has been a lot of debate over the direction the Sox took this winter. Many are happy we did not trade away any of our top prospects. Many are happy we did not sign any long term deals during a weak Free Agent class year. Many are looking forward to the prospects working their way to the big club as some of our older player's salaries expire. The future looks bright. Not many deny this. The biggest debate was over the FA choices made for 2013 and the lack of FA choices that might help us beyond 2014. I guess that debate may continue right through the summer, but there should be much to discuss from now until October.

    Let's try and keep this thread all about baseball and somewhat related to the Sox. If you feel the need to rant about politics or the personal habits of other posters, take it outside... PLEASE!

    Spring training is just around the corner!

    Here's a look at the 40 man roster and average salaries of all our players. (Please correct me if I got something wrong.)

     

    2013 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $178 MILLION)

    Guaranteed deals (Salary listed is the average contract salary per year)

    John Lackey, $16.5 million
    Ryan Dempster, $13.25 million
    David Ortiz, $13 million
    Mike Napoli, $5 million
    Shane Victorino, $13 million
    Stephen Drew, $9.5 million
    Clay Buchholz, $7.4 million

    Joel Hanrahan  $7.04 million
    Dustin Pedroia, $6.80 million
    Jon Lester, $6 million
    Jonny Gomes, $5 million
    Koji Uehara, $4.25 million
    David Ross, $3.1 million
    Jose Iglesias, $2.1 million

    TOTAL GUARANTEED: APPROX $112 MILLION

    Arbitration and Pre-Hearing Signings

    Jacoby Ellsbury  $9.0M
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia  $4.5M
    Andrew Bailey $4.1M
    Alfredo Aceves  $2.65M
    Craig Breslow  $3.125M
    Andrew Miller  $1.475
    Daniel Bard  $1.8625
    Franklin Morales  $1.4875

    APPROXIMATELY ~$28.2 MILLION  

    Total to this point: $140M

    Pre-arbitration eligible

    Junichi Tazawa, Felix Doubront, Ryan Kalish (DL), Daniel Nava, Will Middlebrooks, Clayton Mortensen, Pedro Ciriaco, Rubby de la Rosa, Drake Britton, Dan Butler, Chris Carpenter, Mauro Gomez, Alex Hassan, Brock Holt, Ryan Lavarnway, Christian Vazquez, Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, Stephen Wright

    PROJECTED TOTAL: APPROXIMATELY $7 MILLION  

    New Total: $147M

    Additional expenses

    Benefits, $10.8 million
    Dodgers subsidy, $3.9 million

    Total:  $14.7 MILLION

    ESTIMATED 2013 TOTAL COMMITMENTS: $162 MILLION

    (AS MEASURED FOR LUXURY TAX PURPOSES)

     

    I have us at about $16M below the luxury tax threshold.  

    If we are still in it by the deadline, we could take on some salary dumps to get us over the hump. If we are out of it by then, we may see a firesale to build up the farm and a retool in the 2014 Free Agent market. 

    Go Sox!

     

    Sox 4 Ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Excellent sart Moon. Is it truck day yet? Are they taking off the snow tires yet?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    pedrioa is making 6Mil. thats just mindblowing considering the production we get from him. the sox need to PAY him when he gets his extension.

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    i was thinking aceves/miller/mortenson as the trade cantidates. All can be replaced in the BP. Aceves by Tazawa/Morales (long man), Miller by Morales (lefty), Mortenson by Bard (mop up man and other low leverage situations). Atch and Hill are still available i believe so they can be used to further bolster our BP in case of injury or ineffectiveness. We could thin out the BP a bit (keeping our better pitchers with options out of AAA) and get back a good pitching prospect to help us in the future..

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One quick point about the payroll figures is that there's a reasonably good chance that Napoli's 5 million will become 13 million.  So that would leave about 8 million below the threshold. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    One quick point about the payroll figures is that there's a reasonably good chance that Napoli's 5 million will become 13 million.  So that would leave about 8 million below the threshold. 



    Excellent point, but $8M is a lot. It essentially pays for a player making $24M this year, since a trade at the deadline gets only 1/3 of a player's season and salary.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think the AL East is up for grabs.  All five teams have a realistic shot of winning the division.

    Lester needs to pitch like an ace that he is.

    I expect Ellsbury to have a great year (like he did in 2011).  After all, he will be a free agent after this season.   I'm sure his agent Scott Boras told him to perform better this year.  LOL

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    I think the AL East is up for grabs.  All five teams have a realistic shot of winning the division.

    Lester needs to pitch like an ace that he is.

    I expect Ellsbury to have a great year (like he did in 2011).  After all, he will be a free agent after this season.   I'm sure his agent Scott Boras told him to perform better this year.  LOL

     



    I hope you are right, but the FA year thing doesn't always work out, especially for players who do not do better if they "push harder".

    (Not saying Ells is this type)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ellsbury seems to often start slow. We just have to keep him healthy through to June and the retro rockets will kick in again.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Ellsbury seems to often start slow. We just have to keep him healthy through to June and the retro rockets will kick in again.




    yeah, in 2011 he really didn't start turning it on until a month before the AS break. I told my best friend (and huge Hamilton fan) "jacoby is going to beat out Josh for that last AS OF spot" (he didn't but still made the roster) but after that it was balls to the wall for big numbah two until the final game of the season. and then the 2011 screw-job....... i hate verlander

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

    Ellsbury seems to often start slow. We just have to keep him healthy through to June and the retro rockets will kick in again.




    I'd settle for a small firecracker....retro rockets?

    Hey , this guy is getting paid to put it in high gear for a WHOLE SEASON....why do we forgive him for "starting slow?"...maybe they should pay him slow...maybe when he stops seeing dollar signs , he'll turn it up a notch...I doubt it though.

    These money/fame seekers don't play for the love of the game....no consistency...one good season and they want that big contract , so they can put it on cruise control.

    They should have dumped him when his value was higher, when they finally try and peddle him , they will be lucky to get a good backup catcher....for the Pawsox!!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    Ellsbury seems to often start slow. We just have to keep him healthy through to June and the retro rockets will kick in again.

     




    I'd settle for a small firecracker....retro rockets?

     

    Hey , this guy is getting paid to put it in high gear for a WHOLE SEASON....why do we forgive him for "starting slow?"...maybe they should pay him slow...maybe when he stops seeing dollar signs , he'll turn it up a notch...I doubt it though.

    These money/fame seekers don't play for the love of the game....no consistency...one good season and they want that big contract , so they can put it on cruise control.

    They should have dumped him when his value was higher, when they finally try and peddle him , they will be lucky to get a good backup catcher....for the Pawsox!!




    did jacoby steal your GF too??

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    One quick point about the payroll figures is that there's a reasonably good chance that Napoli's 5 million will become 13 million.  So that would leave about 8 million below the threshold. 




    I was going to say that Napoli's contract will probably push the payroll to 170. One thing I like about the roster this year is the fact that there are no overly long contracts and quite a few short ones. So the opportunity will be there to make some deadline trades should the circumstances call for it.

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, thanks for your stewardship.  I'm getting excited now that ST is close.  Can you tell me about Crain?

    Jid, I can't tell you how jealous I am.  About two more years for me until retirement and I hope to be living down there nearby so I can go to all those games too. I hope you can give us some updates, reports, thumbnails on what you see.  If you don't have a computer or take one, I'm going to recommend we chip in and buy you one just for these reports.

    Boom, the juices are flowing now.  You won't have to reprimand me again for a while.  I'm your Polly now and liking it as much as I can.  I've got to stop now as this sounds like a couple of incarcerated guys instead of baseball fans.  Go Sox!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, thanks for your stewardship.  I'm getting excited now that ST is close.  Can you tell me about Crain?

     



    First, I want to say that I am not sure Crain is available, and he's not really the type of guy I want to get, since his contract expires after 2013.

    Second, he's a right-handed relief pitcher who came into his own in 2010 with MN. He's done very well for 3 straight years while striking out 130 batters in his last 113 IP.

    Third, I'd only make this deal if I thought we had a strong chance at winning, which I don't, because Mortensen and Miller are under team control for more than 1 year.

    Again, the main reason I'd like a 2 or 3 for 1 deal is to make room for Tazawa and others on the 25 man roster. I'd love to see Tazawa as our 5th starter. I think he is better than lackey and Doubront, and maybe Dempster. There's no rush on him, but if we really want to make a push this year, our best players should not be in AAA all because he's one of the only one with options left.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Too bad that you can't watch NASCAR every day so you don't have to put up with your Red Sox.  How about getting a subscription to Netflix and watching science fiction movies every night instead of watching NESN?

     

    Can you please take your nonbaseball posts elsewhere. 

    This thread is for baseball only.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.




    i've got to say i'm not as high on Floyd as you are but i do like the crain aspect (even though he is only under control for 1 season). OTOH I would like to see us nab another solid pitching prospect to further bolster our crop and thus bettering our chances in 2014 and beyond. Or at the very least a good reliever with starter capabilities and 3+ years of TC left. I know our farm system is pretty well stocked with Pitching but like the addage goes "you can never have too much pitching" especially since a good portion of them being prospects won't work out..

    Doobie is another question mark going into this season. While there is not as much caution swirling around him as some other pitchers on the staff I feel he could go either way this season, his work ethic isn't the greatest as we've seen. If GMs are asking about him i would strongly consider moving him. We have a comprable pitcher in Morales (albeit with lless TC than doobie) who can immediately be slotted in the rotation (if we didn't get a starter in the deal) and RDLR who should be ready to take a spot in the roto by the AS break. Overall doobies #s from last season were mediocre... some good (9.3 SO/9, .259 oBA) some bad (1.447 WHIP, 4.86 ERA) granted he hit the wall pitching more innings than ever before and was experiencing some sorness.

    All things considered, his trade value won't be extremely high (you could probably trade him straight up for another young, inexperienced starter with "Meh" stats -not ideal) but i'm thinking a pool of him, iggy, lava, BP arms and/or midlevel prospects could net us a valuable piece which could help us in 2014 and beyond. I would even consider *wince* Ellsbury if we could get a top notch pitching prospect or ToR starter-unlikely.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.

     




    i've got to say i'm not as high on Floyd as you are but i do like the crain aspect (even though he is only under control for 1 season). OTOH I would like to see us nab another solid pitching prospect to further bolster our crop and thus bettering our chances in 2014 and beyond. Or at the very least a good reliever with starter capabilities and 3+ years of TC left. I know our farm system is pretty well stocked with Pitching but like the addage goes "you can never have too much pitching" especially since a good portion of them being prospects won't work out..

     

    Doobie is another question mark going into this season. While there is not as much caution swirling around him as some other pitchers on the staff I feel he could go either way this season, his work ethic isn't the greatest as we've seen. If GMs are asking about him i would strongly consider moving him. We have a comprable pitcher in Morales (albeit with lless TC than doobie) who can immediately be slotted in the rotation (if we didn't get a starter in the deal) and RDLR who should be ready to take a spot in the roto by the AS break. Overall doobies #s from last season were mediocre... some good (9.3 SO/9, .259 oBA) some bad (1.447 WHIP, 4.86 ERA) granted he hit the wall pitching more innings than ever before and was experiencing some sorness.

    All things considered, his trade value won't be extremely high (you could probably trade him straight up for another young, inexperienced starter with "Meh" stats -not ideal) but i'm thinking a pool of him, iggy, lava, BP arms and/or midlevel prospects could net us a valuable piece which could help us in 2014 and beyond. I would even consider *wince* Ellsbury if we could get a top notch pitching prospect or ToR starter-unlikely.



    I agree.

    A 2 or 3 for one deal for a solid pitching prospect would be my idea of a good plan as well, or at least a pitcher with 3+ years of team control.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.

     




    i've got to say i'm not as high on Floyd as you are but i do like the crain aspect (even though he is only under control for 1 season). OTOH I would like to see us nab another solid pitching prospect to further bolster our crop and thus bettering our chances in 2014 and beyond. Or at the very least a good reliever with starter capabilities and 3+ years of TC left. I know our farm system is pretty well stocked with Pitching but like the addage goes "you can never have too much pitching" especially since a good portion of them being prospects won't work out..

     

    Doobie is another question mark going into this season. While there is not as much caution swirling around him as some other pitchers on the staff I feel he could go either way this season, his work ethic isn't the greatest as we've seen. If GMs are asking about him i would strongly consider moving him. We have a comprable pitcher in Morales (albeit with lless TC than doobie) who can immediately be slotted in the rotation (if we didn't get a starter in the deal) and RDLR who should be ready to take a spot in the roto by the AS break. Overall doobies #s from last season were mediocre... some good (9.3 SO/9, .259 oBA) some bad (1.447 WHIP, 4.86 ERA) granted he hit the wall pitching more innings than ever before and was experiencing some sorness.

    All things considered, his trade value won't be extremely high (you could probably trade him straight up for another young, inexperienced starter with "Meh" stats -not ideal) but i'm thinking a pool of him, iggy, lava, BP arms and/or midlevel prospects could net us a valuable piece which could help us in 2014 and beyond. I would even consider *wince* Ellsbury if we could get a top notch pitching prospect or ToR starter-unlikely.

     



    I agree.

     

    A 2 or 3 for one deal for a solid pitching prospect would be my idea of a good plan as well, or at least a pitcher with 3+ years of team control.




    It would be nice if we could put something together with the Pirates for Taillon or Cole. I would like Seattle as a possibility, but I don't see them moving Taijuan Walker.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.

     




    i've got to say i'm not as high on Floyd as you are but i do like the crain aspect (even though he is only under control for 1 season). OTOH I would like to see us nab another solid pitching prospect to further bolster our crop and thus bettering our chances in 2014 and beyond. Or at the very least a good reliever with starter capabilities and 3+ years of TC left. I know our farm system is pretty well stocked with Pitching but like the addage goes "you can never have too much pitching" especially since a good portion of them being prospects won't work out..

     

    Doobie is another question mark going into this season. While there is not as much caution swirling around him as some other pitchers on the staff I feel he could go either way this season, his work ethic isn't the greatest as we've seen. If GMs are asking about him i would strongly consider moving him. We have a comprable pitcher in Morales (albeit with lless TC than doobie) who can immediately be slotted in the rotation (if we didn't get a starter in the deal) and RDLR who should be ready to take a spot in the roto by the AS break. Overall doobies #s from last season were mediocre... some good (9.3 SO/9, .259 oBA) some bad (1.447 WHIP, 4.86 ERA) granted he hit the wall pitching more innings than ever before and was experiencing some sorness.

    All things considered, his trade value won't be extremely high (you could probably trade him straight up for another young, inexperienced starter with "Meh" stats -not ideal) but i'm thinking a pool of him, iggy, lava, BP arms and/or midlevel prospects could net us a valuable piece which could help us in 2014 and beyond. I would even consider *wince* Ellsbury if we could get a top notch pitching prospect or ToR starter-unlikely.

     



    I agree.

     

    A 2 or 3 for one deal for a solid pitching prospect would be my idea of a good plan as well, or at least a pitcher with 3+ years of team control.

     




    It would be nice if we could put something together with the Pirates for Taillon or Cole. I would like Seattle as a possibility, but I don't see them moving Taijuan Walker.

     



    Here are the top SP prospects as rated by MLB.com

    2) Dylan Bundy (Bal)

    5) T Walker (Sea)

    7) J Fernandez (Mia)

    8) Z Wheeler (SF)

    9) G Cole (Pitt)

    10) T Skaggs (AZ)

    15) Taillon (Pitt)

    17) T Bauer (Cle)

    18) D Hultzen (Sea)

    24) A Bradley (AZ)

    25) S Miller (StL)

    29) Syndergaard (NYM)

    31) J Teheran (Atl)

    33) C Martinez (StL)

    34) Zimmer (KC)

    35) A Sanchez (Tor)

    36) Gausman (Bal)

    38) BARNES (BOSTON)

    40) A Meyer (MN)

    Nobody is looking to trade away thei top pitching prospects, but teams that are in strong contention might be persuaded to deal for a key piece to their puzzle.

    Pittsburgh and KC seem to be making a push to get over the hump.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.

     




    i've got to say i'm not as high on Floyd as you are but i do like the crain aspect (even though he is only under control for 1 season). OTOH I would like to see us nab another solid pitching prospect to further bolster our crop and thus bettering our chances in 2014 and beyond. Or at the very least a good reliever with starter capabilities and 3+ years of TC left. I know our farm system is pretty well stocked with Pitching but like the addage goes "you can never have too much pitching" especially since a good portion of them being prospects won't work out..

     

    Doobie is another question mark going into this season. While there is not as much caution swirling around him as some other pitchers on the staff I feel he could go either way this season, his work ethic isn't the greatest as we've seen. If GMs are asking about him i would strongly consider moving him. We have a comprable pitcher in Morales (albeit with lless TC than doobie) who can immediately be slotted in the rotation (if we didn't get a starter in the deal) and RDLR who should be ready to take a spot in the roto by the AS break. Overall doobies #s from last season were mediocre... some good (9.3 SO/9, .259 oBA) some bad (1.447 WHIP, 4.86 ERA) granted he hit the wall pitching more innings than ever before and was experiencing some sorness.

    All things considered, his trade value won't be extremely high (you could probably trade him straight up for another young, inexperienced starter with "Meh" stats -not ideal) but i'm thinking a pool of him, iggy, lava, BP arms and/or midlevel prospects could net us a valuable piece which could help us in 2014 and beyond. I would even consider *wince* Ellsbury if we could get a top notch pitching prospect or ToR starter-unlikely.

     



    I agree.

     

    A 2 or 3 for one deal for a solid pitching prospect would be my idea of a good plan as well, or at least a pitcher with 3+ years of team control.

     




    It would be nice if we could put something together with the Pirates for Taillon or Cole. I would like Seattle as a possibility, but I don't see them moving Taijuan Walker.

     

     



    Here are the top SP prospects as rated by MLB.com

     

    2) Dylan Bundy (Bal)

    5) T Walker (Sea)

    7) J Fernandez (Mia)

    8) Z Wheeler (SF)

    9) G Cole (Pitt)

    10) T Skaggs (AZ)

    15) Taillon (Pitt)

    17) T Bauer (Cle)

    18) D Hultzen (Sea)

    24) A Bradley (AZ)

    25) S Miller (StL)

    29) Syndergaard (NYM)

    31) J Teheran (Atl)

    33) C Martinez (StL)

    34) Zimmer (KC)

    35) A Sanchez (Tor)

    36) Gausman (Bal)

    38) BARNES (BOSTON)

    40) A Meyer (MN)

    Nobody is looking to trade away thei top pitching prospects, but teams that are in strong contention might be persuaded to deal for a key piece to their puzzle.

    Pittsburgh and KC seem to be making a push to get over the hump.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Like I said it would be sweet if we could put together a package to pick up Cole or Taillon. It would greatly increase our chances of the next ace of the staff coming up from the farm system. I don't know that much about Zimmer with KC.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    from MLBTR:

    The Blue Jays are still in the bullpen market along with the Mets, Heyman reports. The Marlins, Astros and Dodgers might also be involved in pursuit of relievers.

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#dD5F6QjDzUG5Bbu2.99   don't like the looks of this, we can rule the Jays out. the mets, marlins and astros are likely to be in the basement and probably aren't looking to give up pitching prospects and LAs best pitching prospects are already in our organization.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    from MLBTR:

    The Blue Jays are still in the bullpen market along with the Mets, Heyman reports. The Marlins, Astros and Dodgers might also be involved in pursuit of relievers.

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#dD5F6QjDzUG5Bbu2.99   don't like the looks of this, we can rule the Jays out. the mets, marlins and astros are likely to be in the basement and probably aren't looking to give up pitching prospects and LAs best pitching prospects are already in our organization.



    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson). Plus a guy like Bailey will be a lot more valuable if he's pitching like the all star he was in Oakland.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    from MLBTR:

    The Blue Jays are still in the bullpen market along with the Mets, Heyman reports. The Marlins, Astros and Dodgers might also be involved in pursuit of relievers.

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#dD5F6QjDzUG5Bbu2.99   don't like the looks of this, we can rule the Jays out. the mets, marlins and astros are likely to be in the basement and probably aren't looking to give up pitching prospects and LAs best pitching prospects are already in our organization.

     



    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson). Plus a guy like Bailey will be a lot more valuable if he's pitching like the all star he was in Oakland.

     




    but the thing is we need roster space now! i'd hate to see Taz start the season in AAA when lesser pitchers are on the MLB roster because he has options and they don't. the only way i would be OK with that is if Taz was starting in AAA but if he is going to pitch relief in portland i'm going to lose it. our BP will still be good without Taz in it don't get me wrong but we should have the best guys available on the roster. the only exception to that should be if we're gearing him up for the future. He will see much more innings in AAA starting than in the MLB pitching relief, he can get a good base of innings and come into camp next season ready to rock and roll.

     
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