A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    from MLBTR:

    The Blue Jays are still in the bullpen market along with the Mets, Heyman reports. The Marlins, Astros and Dodgers might also be involved in pursuit of relievers.

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#dD5F6QjDzUG5Bbu2.99   don't like the looks of this, we can rule the Jays out. the mets, marlins and astros are likely to be in the basement and probably aren't looking to give up pitching prospects and LAs best pitching prospects are already in our organization.

     



    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson). Plus a guy like Bailey will be a lot more valuable if he's pitching like the all star he was in Oakland.

     

     




    but the thing is we need roster space now! i'd hate to see Taz start the season in AAA when lesser pitchers are on the MLB roster because he has options and they don't. the only way i would be OK with that is if Taz was startingin AAA but if he is going to pitch relief in portland i'm going to lose it. our BP will still be good without Taz in it don't get me wrong but we should have the best guys available on the roster. the only exception to that should be if we're gearing him up for the future. He will see much more innings in AAA starting than in the MLB pitching relief, he can get a good base of innings and come into camp next season ready to rock and roll.

     



    That's a good thing. Just because we have more major league relief arms than we have space for on the 25 man roster doesn't mean we should sell low on a guy like say Bailey or Miller. Teams that make moves out of desperation almost always get burned. On the other hand, if your FO is patient and willing to wait for someone else to get desperate, that's where the best trades get made. It's the same principle so many people are trying to use in business, buy low and sell high. Unfortunately, in business like in baseball, people get impatient, even desperate and feel that they need to do something immediately. So patience my friend, patience. Now, having said all that I'm still trying to figure out what the hell Alex Hassan is doing on the 40 man roster. :-)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    Moon, thanks for your stewardship.  I'm getting excited now that ST is close.  Can you tell me about Crain?

    Jid, I can't tell you how jealous I am.  About two more years for me until retirement and I hope to be living down there nearby so I can go to all those games too. I hope you can give us some updates, reports, thumbnails on what you see.  If you don't have a computer or take one, I'm going to recommend we chip in and buy you one just for these reports.

    Boom, the juices are flowing now.  You won't have to reprimand me again for a while.  I'm your Polly now and liking it as much as I can.  I've got to stop now as this sounds like a couple of incarcerated guys instead of baseball fans.  Go Sox!

     



    Crit, I have the laptop, it's internet that will not always be available. I take care of my father-in-law (wheelchair bound) and he doesn't know how to spel komputa. But he has the season tickets! Last year I got out a few times to local coffee shops and the like and will do my best to do the same this year. I'm getting excited as well. Last year I felt the season was doomed late in Spring Training because of the players' obvious dislike for Bobby. I expect a much more professional camp this year under Farrell.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    Moon, thanks for your stewardship.  I'm getting excited now that ST is close.  Can you tell me about Crain?

    Jid, I can't tell you how jealous I am.  About two more years for me until retirement and I hope to be living down there nearby so I can go to all those games too. I hope you can give us some updates, reports, thumbnails on what you see.  If you don't have a computer or take one, I'm going to recommend we chip in and buy you one just for these reports.

    Boom, the juices are flowing now.  You won't have to reprimand me again for a while.  I'm your Polly now and liking it as much as I can.  I've got to stop now as this sounds like a couple of incarcerated guys instead of baseball fans.  Go Sox!

     



    Crit, I have the laptop, it's internet that will not always be available. I take care of my father-in-law (wheelchair bound) and he doesn't know how to spel komputa. But he has the season tickets! Last year I got out a few times to local coffee shops and the like and will do my best to do the same this year. I'm getting excited as well. Last year I felt the season was doomed late in Spring Training because of the players' obvious dislike for Bobby. I expect a much more professional camp this year under Farrell.

     




    if you have a smart phone you can run a mobile hot spot and connect your laptop to the internet through that.. but i would like to hear some first hand news about ST. mainly now papi is moving around and S Drew looks on defense

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson).

    Larry was not really a closer.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson).

    Larry was not really a closer.




    I didn't mean to imply that Larry was a closer. :-) I meant the nearer you get to the trading deadline the more likely it is you'll be able to take someone to the cleaner's.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson).

    Larry was not really a closer.

     




    I didn't mean to imply that Larry was a closer. :-) I meant the nearer you get to the trading deadline the more likely it is you'll be able to take someone to the cleaner's.

     



    In all fairness to former Sox GM Lou Gorman, who okayed the trade for the Sox, the trade wasn't that hard to pull the trigger on.  Bagwell had shown the ability to hit in AA, but not for power, as he had 4 homeruns in 569 plate appearances while making 34 errors in 133 games at third the year they traded him. They had the higher rated Scott Cooper at 3rd in Pawtucket and a future Hall of Famer in Wade Boggs at 3rd in Boston.  Mo Vaughn was clearly the future at first at that point, so Bagwell seemed expendable.  Larry Anderson was terrific down the stretch for Boston as well.  Jeff Bagwell will be the first one to tell you that his career would have likely gone very diferently if he had got stuck in Boston and Lou Gorman used to tell everyone that he had never even seen Bagwell play before he traded him and went with the advice of his scouts...   

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson).

    Larry was not really a closer.

     




    I didn't mean to imply that Larry was a closer. :-) I meant the nearer you get to the trading deadline the more likely it is you'll be able to take someone to the cleaner's.

     

     



    In all fairness to former Sox GM Lou Gorman, who okayed the trade for the Sox, the trade wasn't that hard to pull the trigger on.  Bagwell had shown the ability to hit in AA, but not for power, as he had 4 homeruns in 569 plate appearances while making 34 errors in 133 games at third the year they traded him. They had the higher rated Scott Cooper at 3rd in Pawtucket and a future Hall of Famer in Wade Boggs at 3rd in Boston.  Mo Vaughn was clearly the future at first at that point, so Bagwell seemed expendable.  Larry Anderson was terrific down the stretch for Boston as well.  Jeff Bagwell will be the first one to tell you that his career would have likely gone very diferently if he had got stuck in Boston and Lou Gorman used to tell everyone that he had never even seen Bagwell play before he traded him and went with the advice of his scouts...   

     



    I have a hard time being fair to Gorman. I suffer from the same lack of objectivity regarding Don Zimmer and John McNamara too. :-)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    That's why the best policy is probably to wait and see how the market develops. Teams that think they're on the brink are a lot more likely to overpay closer to the trading deadline (see Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson).

    Larry was not really a closer.

     




    I didn't mean to imply that Larry was a closer. :-) I meant the nearer you get to the trading deadline the more likely it is you'll be able to take someone to the cleaner's.

     

     



    In all fairness to former Sox GM Lou Gorman, who okayed the trade for the Sox, the trade wasn't that hard to pull the trigger on.  Bagwell had shown the ability to hit in AA, but not for power, as he had 4 homeruns in 569 plate appearances while making 34 errors in 133 games at third the year they traded him. They had the higher rated Scott Cooper at 3rd in Pawtucket and a future Hall of Famer in Wade Boggs at 3rd in Boston.  Mo Vaughn was clearly the future at first at that point, so Bagwell seemed expendable.  Larry Anderson was terrific down the stretch for Boston as well.  Jeff Bagwell will be the first one to tell you that his career would have likely gone very diferently if he had got stuck in Boston and Lou Gorman used to tell everyone that he had never even seen Bagwell play before he traded him and went with the advice of his scouts...   

     

     



    I have a hard time being fair to Gorman. I suffer from the same lack of objectivity regarding Don Zimmer and John McNamara too. :-)

     


    Haha!...I hear ya with all three, believe me...just making the point that no one figured Bagwell to become the player he was for the Astros...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    What about trading Schill and Brady Anderson for Boddicker?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What about trading Schill and Brady Anderson for Boddicker?




    That was Gorman too wasn't it? And what about "Where would we play Willie McGee?"

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sparky Lyle, Cecil Cooper, Schilling & Anderson, and Bagwell.

    Take back all of these trades and how much would history have been altered?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Sparky Lyle, Cecil Cooper, Schilling & Anderson, and Bagwell.

    Take back all of these trades and how much would history have been altered?




    I actually liked Coop for Boomer at the time. But I was a big George Scott fan.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What about trading Schill and Brady Anderson for Boddicker?



    Yeah, I was hoping Burks, Greenwell and Anderson would be Rice, Lynn, Evans...ish before that trade.  Schill is another guy who probably needed a change of scenery at the time (or a few), and Boddicker was solid for the Sox, but those Sox teams just weren't going to beat Oakland back then.  

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Sparky Lyle, Cecil Cooper, Schilling & Anderson, and Bagwell.

    Take back all of these trades and how much would history have been altered?



    The trade of Cooper is somewhat underrated in the history of terrible moves by the Sox.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Sparky Lyle, Cecil Cooper, Schilling & Anderson, and Bagwell.

    Take back all of these trades and how much would history have been altered?

     




    I actually liked Coop for Boomer at the time. But I was a big George Scott fan.

     



    He was 33 when we got him. He had 1 good year, then poof...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What about trading Schill and Brady Anderson for Boddicker?

     



    Yeah, I was hoping Burks, Greenwell and Anderson would be Rice, Lynn, Evans...ish before that trade.  Schill is another guy who probably needed a change of scenery at the time (or a few), and Boddicker was solid for the Sox, but those Sox teams just weren't going to beat Oakland back then.  

     



    We traded Schill in 1988. We might have had him for 15 more years.

    I assume you meant the Oakland era with the Cooper or Lyle trade, but the A's were done being good by 1990--about the time Schill came to life with Philly.

    It would have been much more fum watching the Sox from the early 70's onward had we kept, Lyle, Schill, Anderson, Cooper and Bagwell.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What about trading Schill and Brady Anderson for Boddicker?

     



    Yeah, I was hoping Burks, Greenwell and Anderson would be Rice, Lynn, Evans...ish before that trade.  Schill is another guy who probably needed a change of scenery at the time (or a few), and Boddicker was solid for the Sox, but those Sox teams just weren't going to beat Oakland back then.  

     

     



    We traded Schill in 1988. We might have had him for 15 more years.

     

    I assume you meant the Oakland era with the Cooper or Lyle trade, but the A's were done being good by 1990--about the time Schill came to life with Philly.

    It would have been much more fum watching the Sox from the early 70's onward had we kept, Lyle, Schill, Anderson, Cooper and Bagwell.



    Actually, I meant '88 and '90 when we were swept by Oakland in the ALCS twice.  Boddicker was a big part of those division championships and again, it took Schilling a while before he figured it out.  Baltimore and Houston gave up on him after the Sox did.  Schilling pitched well for Philly in '92 and '93 after they acquired him from Houston, but then he struggled until '97. 

    Watching Cooper have MVP type seasons for Milwaukee was painful, but I can see why the Sox brought Scott back at the time.  You are right though, history could have been very different if those moves weren't made.  The Sparky Lyle /Danny Cater deal may be the most significant.  Then again, I don't think it's possible to ever experience anything like 2004 again, so I certainly wouldn't change any history leading up to that point. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Man, we sure sound like old timers...and I confess, I lived through that era also!

    It will be interesting to see what they do with the excess relievers. It seems like we should have a ton of depth in the pen. Particularly if Bard comes back as strong as I think he will.

    I think Doubront just faded at the end because he wasn't used to that many innings. He should be fine this year. And we have enough depth at the starting position to rest some guys if we can stay healthy at all. I would strongly consider moving Tazawa to back up starter. Stretch him out in AAA ball just in case.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Man, we sure sound like old timers...and I confess, I lived through that era also!

    It will be interesting to see what they do with the excess relievers. It seems like we should have a ton of depth in the pen. Particularly if Bard comes back as strong as I think he will.

    I think Doubront just faded at the end because he wasn't used to that many innings. He should be fine this year. And we have enough depth at the starting position to rest some guys if we can stay healthy at all. I would strongly consider moving Tazawa to back up starter. Stretch him out in AAA ball just in case.

     



    same thought here. I'm totally OK with not seeing Taz in the MLB this year if it means he comes into camp next year as a starter...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What about trading Schill and Brady Anderson for Boddicker?

     



    Yeah, I was hoping Burks, Greenwell and Anderson would be Rice, Lynn, Evans...ish before that trade.  Schill is another guy who probably needed a change of scenery at the time (or a few), and Boddicker was solid for the Sox, but those Sox teams just weren't going to beat Oakland back then.  

     

     



    We traded Schill in 1988. We might have had him for 15 more years.

     

    I assume you meant the Oakland era with the Cooper or Lyle trade, but the A's were done being good by 1990--about the time Schill came to life with Philly.

    It would have been much more fum watching the Sox from the early 70's onward had we kept, Lyle, Schill, Anderson, Cooper and Bagwell.

     



    Actually, I meant '88 and '90 when we were swept by Oakland in the ALCS twice.  Boddicker was a big part of those division championships and again, it took Schilling a while before he figured it out.  Baltimore and Houston gave up on him after the Sox did.  Schilling pitched well for Philly in '92 and '93 after they acquired him from Houston, but then he struggled until '97. 

     

    Watching Cooper have MVP type seasons for Milwaukee was painful, but I can see why the Sox brought Scott back at the time.  You are right though, history could have been very different if those moves weren't made.  The Sparky Lyle /Danny Cater deal may be the most significant.  Then again, I don't think it's possible to ever experience anything like 2004 again, so I certainly wouldn't change any history leading up to that point. 




    I was always a big Cooper fan and even followed him when he played in Mil. Being born in 1970, Some of these trades were made while I was only in the single digits and not knowing of the whole process of trades in MLB.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Man, we sure sound like old timers...and I confess, I lived through that era also!

    It will be interesting to see what they do with the excess relievers. It seems like we should have a ton of depth in the pen. Particularly if Bard comes back as strong as I think he will.

    I think Doubront just faded at the end because he wasn't used to that many innings. He should be fine this year. And we have enough depth at the starting position to rest some guys if we can stay healthy at all. I would strongly consider moving Tazawa to back up starter. Stretch him out in AAA ball just in case.

     




    I'd rather see Taz as our #5 starter, but I seriously doubt that happens even if someone gets hurt.

    As for Doubront "fading": yes, he had a rough August (8.16/2.02WHIP in just 3 starts) and September (5.13/ 1.35 in 6 starts), but his June ERA (5.83)  and WHIP (1.47) were both worse than September.

    WHIP by month:

    Apr  1.46

    May 1.29

    June 1.47

    July  1.43

    Aug  2.02

    Sep  1.35

    Pretty consistently bad.

     

    OPS against:

    Apr  .794  in 97 PA

    May .651  in 146

    June .918  in 129

    July  .721  in 121

    Aug  .892  in 71

    Sep  .734  in 145

    His best 3 months here were May, July and Sept- a perfect rollercoaster effect.

     

    Although I like Ks, I do not rate them as high as most posters here, especially when they are coupled with high BB rates. I still think Doubront has a lot of promise, but I have more faith in the promise Tazaawa shows.

    Doub '12:    4.86  1.447   .775 OPS against  (OPS+  114)   9.3 K/9   2.35 K/BB

    Taz career:  3.73  1.355  .752 OPS against  (OPS+  100)   7.7 K/9   4.13 K/BB

    (Note: the sample sizes are varied, and Taz's is spread over 3 seasons: Taz 315 total PAs against, Doub  709 PA against in 2012.)

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I do understand that Taz was coming off a serious injury and was babied most of the year. I don't think he probably is any better than Doubront but we are going to need some starter backup beyond Morales and De LaRosa. Taz would be another option. We may also want to consider trading one or more of these relief guys. I really think we have a ton of depth at reliever. If we stretch Taz out as a starter and he does well then we can even consider trading him as a starter, or someone else, although I think we need all the starter depth we have got at this point. Maybe it would help us land a better quality, more expensive starter though, in partial exchange for a cheap guy ike De Larosa or Tazawa.

    I'm not anxious to trade either by the way. Bost are potentially solid mlb players.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I do understand that Taz was coming off a serious injury and was babied most of the year. I don't think he probably is any better than Doubront but we are going to need some starter backup beyond Morales and De LaRosa. Taz would be another option. We may also want to consider trading one or more of these relief guys. I really think we have a ton of depth at reliever. If we stretch Taz out as a starter and he does well then we can even consider trading him as a starter, or someone else, although I think we need all the starter depth we have got at this point. Maybe it would help us land a better quality, more expensive starter though, in partial exchange for a cheap guy ike De Larosa or Tazawa.

    I'm not anxious to trade either by the way. Bost are potentially solid mlb players.

     

     



    I'd rather trade Doubront and/or Morales than Taz or DLR, but as you know, I am looking more towards 2015 and beyond not 2013 (although Doubront is younger than Taz and Morales is the same age.)

     

    What we could see happen is this: the Sox are 14 GB by the deadline, we trade Lackey and/or Dempster (who are pressumably pitching well enough to be worth something to a contender), and Morales, DLR, and Tazawa start in August and September to give us a better look at what we got.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think I still have some ill feelings towards Doubront for coming to camp out of shape in 2011. That was a sign of some issues there.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think I still have some ill feelings towards Doubront for coming to camp out of shape in 2011. That was a sign of some issues there.




    The good news is that he seems to have got the message about coming to camp in shape. He was one of the first guys in Ft Myers this year.

     

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