A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think I still have some ill feelings towards Doubront for coming to camp out of shape in 2011. That was a sign of some issues there.

     




    The good news is that he seems to have got the message about coming to camp in shape. He was one of the first guys in Ft Myers this year.

     



    I know. I shouldn't hold a grudge for too long, but I've learned in life that people do not change easily. It takes effort.

    Doubront has some nasty stuff. He certainly has potential to become a very good starter. I'm not giving up on him, and when I mention trading him, I am assuming other GMs see what we see and would give up a lot for him, especially if he is packaged with other helpful players (pen arms and a catcher?).

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think I still have some ill feelings towards Doubront for coming to camp out of shape in 2011. That was a sign of some issues there.

     




    The good news is that he seems to have got the message about coming to camp in shape. He was one of the first guys in Ft Myers this year.

     

     



    I know. I shouldn't hold a grudge for too long, but I've learned in life that people do not change easily. It takes effort.

     

    Doubront has some nasty stuff. He certainly has potential to become a very good starter. I'm not giving up on him, and when I mention trading him, I am assuming other GMs see what we see and would give up a lot for him, especially if he is packaged with other helpful players (pen arms and a catcher?).




    this is my thought too. and he won't be sorely missed -unless he turns into the next pedro for another team :p - because we have a lefty starter with good stuff in morales and another young, cost controlled (possibly better) pitcher in RDLR waiting in the wings.. i'd say, get something good for him if you can. If he is out of shape, and doesn't perform this year then we will be wishing we had..

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think I still have some ill feelings towards Doubront for coming to camp out of shape in 2011. That was a sign of some issues there.

     




    The good news is that he seems to have got the message about coming to camp in shape. He was one of the first guys in Ft Myers this year.

     

     



    I know. I shouldn't hold a grudge for too long, but I've learned in life that people do not change easily. It takes effort.

     

    Doubront has some nasty stuff. He certainly has potential to become a very good starter. I'm not giving up on him, and when I mention trading him, I am assuming other GMs see what we see and would give up a lot for him, especially if he is packaged with other helpful players (pen arms and a catcher?).

     




    this is my thought too. and he won't be sorely missed -unless he turns into the next pedro for another team :p - because we have a lefty starter with good stuff in morales and another young, cost controlled (possibly better) pitcher in RDLR waiting in the wings.. i'd say, get something good for him if you can. If he is out of shape, and doesn't perform this year then we will be wishing we had..

     



    Doub may be in shape now, but the fact that he came to camp in 2011 with a chance to win a starting job for the first time in his life- he blew it. That's a mental flaw that getting or being in shape for the rest of his life may not cure. I'm worried about his mental toughness.

    I'm not trying to label him or write him off. I am not saying people can't change, or that people can't make a mistake and learn from it, but it concerns me.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here are the position by position comparative OPS numbers of the 2013 Sox players based on 2011 & 2012 numbers:

    Catcher:

    12th Salty  .740 (out of 18 catchers with over 800 PAs)

    21st Salty  .740 (out of 45 catchers with 350+ PAs)

    17th D Ross .766 (45 catchers with 350+ PAs)

     

    1st Base:

    4th  Napoli  .931 (out of 34 players who play 1B & have 800+ PAs)

     

    2nd Base:

    3rd  Pedroia  .831 (out of 31 2Bmen with 800+ PAs)

     

    3rd Base:

    7th Middlebrooks  .835 (out of 70 3Bmen with 250+ PAs)

     

    Short Stop:

    21st  S Drew    .687  (out of 35 SSs with 600+ PAs)

       (Sidenote: Drew places 8th out of 34 in SS OPs from 2010-2012 at .746)

     

    Left Field:

    15th  J Gomes  .787 (out of 34 LF'ers with 700+ PAs)

      (Sidenote: Gomes finishes 15th out of 35 from '10-'12 at .774 just blow CC)

     

    Center Field:

    5th  Ellsbury  .851  (out of 22 CF'ers with 1000+ PAs)

     

    Right Field:

    24th  Victorino    .771 (out of 32 with 750+ PAs RF'ers during the time he played CF) 

    16th  Victorino   .771 (out of 21 RF'ers with 1000+ PAs, assuming SV played RF)

     

    DH:

    1st   Ortiz   .981  (by about 100 points out of 14 DHs with 750+ PAs)

    1st out of 22 DHs with 500+ PAs

     

    Notes:

    Jonny Gomes has numbers that are slanted to LHPs (304 out of 705) during this time period.

    Interesting that only 22 Cf'ers had over 1000 PAs over the last 2 years, and only 18 CF'ers had more PAs than Jacoby.

    Expanding the sample size from 2 years to 3 years brings drew from 21st to 8th due to his big 2010 season.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    Doubront has some nasty stuff. He certainly has potential to become a very good starter. I'm not giving up on him, and when I mention trading him, I am assuming other GMs see what we see and would give up a lot for him, especially if he is packaged with other helpful players (pen arms and a catcher?).


    this is my thought too. and he won't be sorely missed -unless he turns into the next pedro for another team :p - because we have a lefty starter with good stuff in morales and another young, cost controlled (possibly better) pitcher in RDLR waiting in the wings.. i'd say, get something good for him if you can. If he is out of shape, and doesn't perform this year then we will be wishing we had..


    I don't agree.  Doubs is fairly young, lefty, showed some big potential last year, his first, and I think we need to stockpile guys like him.   Doubs' 2012 season was not far different from similarly aged seasons from Hurst, Ojeda and Tudor.

    I also am skeptical that a package deal including a few bullpen guys and sundry other marginal players will bring back much....quality is far more important than quantity....and let's face it, the Sox were able to load up on 8-12 decent bullpen arms because it's not particularly difficult to find such guys.  I think the trading value of the surplus BP arms will be in select situations e.g. another team suffers an injury and needs a closer or set up guy urgently....rather than backing up the dump truck on the St. Louis Browns or Philadelphia Athletics. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

     

    Doubront has some nasty stuff. He certainly has potential to become a very good starter. I'm not giving up on him, and when I mention trading him, I am assuming other GMs see what we see and would give up a lot for him, especially if he is packaged with other helpful players (pen arms and a catcher?).


    this is my thought too. and he won't be sorely missed -unless he turns into the next pedro for another team :p - because we have a lefty starter with good stuff in morales and another young, cost controlled (possibly better) pitcher in RDLR waiting in the wings.. i'd say, get something good for him if you can. If he is out of shape, and doesn't perform this year then we will be wishing we had..


    I don't agree.  Doubs is fairly young, lefty, showed some big potential last year, his first, and I think we need to stockpile guys like him.   Doubs' 2012 season was not far different from similarly aged seasons from Hurst, Ojeda and Tudor.

    I also am skeptical that a package deal including a few bullpen guys and sundry other marginal players will bring back much....quality is far more important than quantity....and let's face it, the Sox were able to load up on 8-12 decent bullpen arms because it's not particularly difficult to find such guys.  I think the trading value of the surplus BP arms will be in select situations e.g. another team suffers an injury and needs a closer or set up guy urgently....rather than backing up the dump truck on the St. Louis Browns or Philadelphia Athletics. 




    In theory, one should be able to get someone better than Doubront by offering something like this:

    Trade: Doubront, Salty or Lava, and Miller or Mortensen

    For: Someone better than Doubront.

    I don't make the trade unless the guy we get is under team control for as long or longer than Doubront and is better than Doubront.

     

    We could sub in Morales for Doubront as well.

    One advanatge is that we then have Tazawa on the 25 man roster (an upgrade over Miller or Mortensen anyways).

     

    Keeping Doubront make a lot of sense to me as well, but he's not the best young pitcher in MLB.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think Doubie has impressive stuff and should be kept around to see how much more he can develop. I think he has the potential to be a TOTR starter and as long as he keeps in shape (I believe he learned his lesson in 2011) then his injuries should be minimal. His windup and delivery are very smooth.

    Now, He might now be much more than a BOTR starter, but I think another year to further develop before considering a trade is the right way to go with him.

    I dont like to trade "kids" before they develop a bit, unless its a no-brainer of a trade of course.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I don't agree.  Doubs is fairly young, lefty, showed some big potential last year, his first, and I think we need to stockpile guys like him.   Doubs' 2012 season was not far different from similarly aged seasons from Hurst, Ojeda and Tudor.

    I also am skeptical that a package deal including a few bullpen guys and sundry other marginal players will bring back much....quality is far more important than quantity....and let's face it, the Sox were able to load up on 8-12 decent bullpen arms because it's not particularly difficult to find such guys.  I think the trading value of the surplus BP arms will be in select situations e.g. another team suffers an injury and needs a closer or set up guy urgently....rather than backing up the dump truck on the St. Louis Browns or Philadelphia Athletics. 

    In theory, one should be able to get someone better than Doubront by offering something like this:

    Trade: Doubront, Salty or Lava, and Miller or Mortensen

    For: Someone better than Doubront.

    I don't make the trade unless the guy we get is under team control for as long or longer than Doubront and is better than Doubront.

     

    We could sub in Morales for Doubront as well.

    One advanatge is that we then have Tazawa on the 25 man roster (an upgrade over Miller or Mortensen anyways).

     Keeping Doubront make a lot of sense to me as well, but he's not the best young pitcher in MLB.




    I guess my problem with your reasonable-sounding theory is that we don't know how good Doubs is / will be so unless we get a slam-dunk SP with control in return - and I don't think we would - I'd rather stick with Doubs.  His "Similar pitchers through age 24" list is interesting:

    1. Sean Marshall (987)
    2. Bob Ojeda (982)
    3. Sterling Hitchcock (982)
    4. Zach Britton (979)
    5. Clay Buchholz (978)
    6. John O'Donoghue (977)
    7. Jack Curtis (977)
    8. Ian Snell (975)
    9. Brad Halsey (974)
    10. Ricky Nolasco (973)

    No studs there, but some pretty good MLB pitchers.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.




    Don't like either one of these trades. Why would you trade [3] 27 yr old pitchers who all showed great promise for the RS last year? Jesse Crain [31 yrs old] while a nice reliever does not post better #'s over his career than the [3] RS pitchers all his junior did last year?

    Jesse Crain [career]  3.22 era   1.238 whip

    Last yr w/ RS [all 27 yrs of age]

    Miller                       3.35         1.190

    Mortensen                3.21         1.214

    Morales                    3.77         1.231

    Think a GM's most difficult job is determining what a player is from this day forward. While Crain is a nice reliever, the [3] RS pitchers in my mind have not reached there potential and who knows what the ceiling is for Morales / Miller / Mortensen. Crains age 27 season he posted a 4.70 era  w/ 1.452 whip. I just can't see giving up [3] young and potentially better pitchers plus our starting catcher for a 31 yr old reliever plus a SP who you admit is not much better than what we already have? I understand your end game is to get Tazawa / Lavarnway on the roster but this trade makes absolutely no sense for RS. IMO Tazawa will be on RS OD roster if he pitches like he did at end of season, and think Lavarnway needs more time to develope. Never think you have too much pitching and 3 for 1 trades are not needed at this time, if at the end of ST everyone is healthy and numbers justify a trade for say Bailey to keep Tazawa on roster I'm all in even if for a single A high end prospect who may not help for a couple of years.                

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Apparently other teams like the Nationals are looking at Morales. I think the addition of Farrell might be key to developing guys like Morales and Doubront. You could make a strong case that Doubront has similar stuff and ability to Lester at that age. It may be that his future path diverges but he has good stuff and a decent mound presence. I've been following this kid since he tore up the Venezuelan league at 17 years old. We should keep sending him out there. He's getting better. I think he faded last year from more use than he was ready for. I bet he starts the year strong and will become a solid #3 or 4 starter in this rotation.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I guess my problem with your reasonable-sounding theory is that we don't know how good Doubs is / will be so unless we get a slam-dunk SP with control in return - and I don't think we would - I'd rather stick with Doubs.  His "Similar pitchers through age 24" list is interesting:

     

    1. Sean Marshall (987)
    2. Bob Ojeda (982)
    3. Sterling Hitchcock (982)
    4. Zach Britton (979)
    5. Clay Buchholz (978)
    6. John O'Donoghue (977)
    7. Jack Curtis (977)
    8. Ian Snell (975)
    9. Brad Halsey (974)
    10. Ricky Nolasco (973)

    No studs there, but some pretty good MLB pitchers.

     

    There's always a tendency to stick with the known or evn the less unknown as in this case.

    If Doubront was on another team, I don't think many here would be clamoring to trade for him.

     

    Yes, the guy we get for Doubront and 2 other guys may turn out to be worse than Doubront, but every trade is like that, and that is no reason to be trade-shy.


    Of course, it is a gamble to trade Doubront away, but in theory, we'd be getting a better gamble in return. Just because we may not know the player we get as well as Doubront, one would think Ben would know.

    I think part of my reason for wanting to "upgrade"  Doubront is what I mentioned earlier. Coming to camp out of shape for your biggest opportunity of your life is worrisome to me. It's a red flag.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I guess my problem with your reasonable-sounding theory is that we don't know how good Doubs is / will be so unless we get a slam-dunk SP with control in return - and I don't think we would - I'd rather stick with Doubs.  His "Similar pitchers through age 24" list is interesting:

     

    1. Sean Marshall (987)
    2. Bob Ojeda (982)
    3. Sterling Hitchcock (982)
    4. Zach Britton (979)
    5. Clay Buchholz (978)
    6. John O'Donoghue (977)
    7. Jack Curtis (977)
    8. Ian Snell (975)
    9. Brad Halsey (974)
    10. Ricky Nolasco (973)

    No studs there, but some pretty good MLB pitchers.

     

    There's always a tendency to stick with the known or evn the less unknown as in this case.

    If Doubront was on another team, I don't think many here would be clamoring to trade for him.

     

    Yes, the guy we get for Doubront and 2 other guys may turn out to be worse than Doubront, but every trade is like that, and that is no reason to be trade-shy.


    Of course, it is a gamble to trade Doubront away, but in theory, we'd be getting a better gamble in return. Just because we may not know the player we get as well as Doubront, one would think Ben would know.

    I think part of my reason for wanting to "upgrade"  Doubront is what I mentioned earlier. Coming to camp out of shape for your biggest opportunity of your life is worrisome to me. It's a red flag.




    Ok, but if we are overrating him then he mustn't have much value to any other team, right?

    WRT to the out of shape issue, I think you are putting too much emphasis on it without enough information.  Sure, maybe he's a slacker, an idiot, or both.  But maybe he had some unreported health issues....or emotional/family issues....maybe he was a young guy that had always succeeded on pure talent without fitness then fell badly at the MLB hurdle and has learned his lesson? 

    Let's see how he looks/performs in 2013 before judging him.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Also these 2, 3 for 1 deals you have been talking about.... who did you have in mind?? im assuming we're talking about BP arms (our biggest trade asset) for pitching prospect(s)?

    I have always liked Gavin Floyd, but he's only got 1 year left and may not be much of an upgrade over what we have. If we could extend him, I'd consider something like this...

    Trade: Salty, Morales, Miller, & Mortensen

    For: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) & Jesse Crain ($4.5M)

     

    This would put Lavarnway and Tazawa on the 25 man roster, but would not help us going beyond 2013, unless we extended one of these guys. It would also put Doubront in the pen, unless someone gets hurt or looks terrible in ST (Lackey?).

    I could also see a Miller, Moretensen, and low prospect for Jesse Crain deal work for both teams.

     




     

    Don't like either one of these trades. Why would you trade [3] 27 yr old pitchers who all showed great promise for the RS last year? Jesse Crain [31 yrs old] while a nice reliever does not post better #'s over his career than the [3] RS pitchers all his junior did last year?

    Jesse Crain [career]  3.22 era   1.238 whip

    Last yr w/ RS [all 27 yrs of age]

    Miller                       3.35         1.190

    Mortensen                3.21         1.214

    Morales                    3.77         1.231

    Think a GM's most difficult job is determining what a player is from this day forward. While Crain is a nice reliever, the [3] RS pitchers in my mind have not reached there potential and who knows what the ceiling is for Morales / Miller / Mortensen. Crains age 27 season he posted a 4.70 era  w/ 1.452 whip. I just can't see giving up [3] young and potentially better pitchers plus our starting catcher for a 31 yr old reliever plus a SP who you admit is not much better than what we already have? I understand your end game is to get Tazawa / Lavarnway on the roster but this trade makes absolutely no sense for RS. IMO Tazawa will be on RS OD roster if he pitches like he did at end of season, and think Lavarnway needs more time to develope. Never think you have too much pitching and 3 for 1 trades are not needed at this time, if at the end of ST everyone is healthy and numbers justify a trade for say Bailey to keep Tazawa on roster I'm all in even if for a single A high end prospect who may not help for a couple of years.                



    I would not make the trade unless we could extend Floyd and Crain.

    Crain's numbers are much better the last 3 years, so using his career numbers are a bit misleading:

    2010   3.04  1.176 with MN

    11-12 2.54   1.174 with CWS

    If we extend him, he's worth it over Miller and Motensen combined.

    Miller & Morales are FAs after 2014.

     

    Also, as I said, I'd rather trade for a younger and better pitcher.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    Moon, thanks for your stewardship.  I'm getting excited now that ST is close.  Can you tell me about Crain?

    Jid, I can't tell you how jealous I am.  About two more years for me until retirement and I hope to be living down there nearby so I can go to all those games too. I hope you can give us some updates, reports, thumbnails on what you see.  If you don't have a computer or take one, I'm going to recommend we chip in and buy you one just for these reports.

    Boom, the juices are flowing now.  You won't have to reprimand me again for a while.  I'm your Polly now and liking it as much as I can.  I've got to stop now as this sounds like a couple of incarcerated guys instead of baseball fans.  Go Sox!

     



    Crit, I have the laptop, it's internet that will not always be available. I take care of my father-in-law (wheelchair bound) and he doesn't know how to spel komputa. But he has the season tickets! Last year I got out a few times to local coffee shops and the like and will do my best to do the same this year. I'm getting excited as well. Last year I felt the season was doomed late in Spring Training because of the players' obvious dislike for Bobby. I expect a much more professional camp this year under Farrell.

     

     




     

    Jid,

    The Mrs. and I may be going to spring training.  It'd be great to say hello for real.

    I'll keep you posted.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I know this is the "realistic thread", and it is highly doubtful Ben trades Ellsbury, but looking at a team like KC, who appears to want to make a push this season, I'm thinking of improving our future with a deal like this:

    Trade:

    Ellsbury  $9M then FA (+ draft choice if QO made and refused)

    A. Miller  $1.475M then 1 more arb year

     

    For: 

    Bruce Chen  (LHP) $4.5M then a FA after 2013 (salary dump for KC)

    Kyle Zimmer (RHP) 21 (#34 prospect on MLB.com)

    _____________________________________________

    We then sign Michael Bourn to a short term deal, if possible,  (We don't lose the 1st rounder, since it is protected) and can either trade him or Victorino this summer or whenever Bradley or Brentz is ready.

    _____________________________________________

    We may end up DFA'ing Chen to make room for Tazawa on the 25 man roster. Chen was only taken on to partially offset Ellsbury's contract with KC.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I wonder if Pittsburgh would take Morales, Iggy and Ellsbury (plus cash) plus maybe amid-level prospect. (Or, sub Doubront for Morales if they insist.)

    for 

    1 of Cole or Taillon and  G. Jones ($4.5M = 2 arbs left)

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I wonder if Pittsburgh would take Morales, Iggy and Ellsbury (plus cash) plus maybe amid-level prospect. (Or, sub Doubront for Morales if they insist.)

    for 

    1 of Cole or Taillon and  G. Jones ($4.5M = 2 arbs left)




    To get one of the Pirates 2 potential "Aces" I would say more would be needed...My guess is Bogy would have to be in there. If I were GM Im certainly not giving up a potential "Ace" for a no bat SS, a LH relief/kinda starting pitcher and one year and 9M of Ells with McCutchen already in CF.

    Id start with Bogy, Morales and maybe an Of'er...Those 2 guys (Taillon, Cole) get high marks from every talent evaluater. Since pitching is much harder to come by, I would expect the deal you proposed will def have to be sweetened...Without including Jones in there.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Have to ask why would Pirates or Royals give up a top 50 pitching prospect for 1 yr of J.Ellsbury. Yes I know they would receive a draft pick compenstaion. But they all know he's going to FA w/ Borass as his agent. When guys like Cole / Taillon / Snyder might all be ready for big show w/ in the next yr, the draft pick you recieive will at best be mlb ready 3-4 yrs from now. Both Pirates and Royals are both improved teams but neither are winning a WS w/ Jacoby in CF next year. Probably the only chance of getting a highly rated prospect for him is waiting to trade deadline and hope some team is feeling they could win it all w/ Jacoby in CF [Rangers] comes a calling. Just don't see Pirates or Royals taking on 10 mil in salary plus giving up a top mlb ready arm for 1 yr of Ells services then wait to get draft pick and hope that the draft pick is ready for mlb in 3-4 yrs when they have it ready right now. If Ellsbury having a season like he did in 11 could see a few teams inquiring, just like the Mets did w/ turning Carlos Beltran into Zach Wheeler. But it will have to be a team that thinks Ells will be the difference between winning and not winning. Both Pirates and Royals do not fit that description.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Pirates ate not trading Gerrit Cole. Period. 

     

    If the Sox work out a deal with Pittsburgh, on intriguing name  is Jose Tabata.  I think a lot of people forget how young he is, but this guy is only 4 months older than Bryce Brentz and is much, much more accomplished.

     

    He also is scheduled to be a fouth outfielder in Pitt and could probably be had...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I wonder if Pittsburgh would take Morales, Iggy and Ellsbury (plus cash) plus maybe amid-level prospect. (Or, sub Doubront for Morales if they insist.)

    for 

    1 of Cole or Taillon and  G. Jones ($4.5M = 2 arbs left)

     




    To get one of the Pirates 2 potential "Aces" I would say more would be needed...My guess is Bogy would have to be in there. If I were GM Im certainly not giving up a potential "Ace" for a no bat SS, a LH relief/kinda starting pitcher and one year and 9M of Ells with McCutchen already in CF.

     

    Id start with Bogy, Morales and maybe an Of'er...Those 2 guys (Taillon, Cole) get high marks from every talent evaluater. Since pitching is much harder to come by, I would expect the deal you proposed will def have to be sweetened...Without including Jones in there.

    ___________________________________________________

    Have to ask why would Pirates or Royals give up a top 50 pitching prospect for 1 yr of J.Ellsbury. Yes I know they would receive a draft pick compenstaion. But they all know he's going to FA w/ Borass as his agent. When guys like Cole / Taillon / Snyder might all be ready for big show w/ in the next yr, the draft pick you recieive will at best be mlb ready 3-4 yrs from now. Both Pirates and Royals are both improved teams but neither are winning a WS w/ Jacoby in CF next year. Probably the only chance of getting a highly rated prospect for him is waiting to trade deadline and hope some team is feeling they could win it all w/ Jacoby in CF [Rangers] comes a calling. Just don't see Pirates or Royals taking on 10 mil in salary plus giving up a top mlb ready arm for 1 yr of Ells services then wait to get draft pick and hope that the draft pick is ready for mlb in 3-4 yrs when they have it ready right now. If Ellsbury having a season like he did in 11 could see a few teams inquiring, just like the Mets did w/ turning Carlos Beltran into Zach Wheeler. But it will have to be a team that thinks Ells will be the difference between winning and not winning. Both Pirates and Royals do not fit that description.

     

    You guys are right. It would take a lot more than my offer to pry a top pitching prospect from KC or Pitt, even though they do seem to be looking to make a push now.

    Ellsbury and the attached draft pick along with cash or a salary offset via salary dump is just a start.

    I'd try to avoid giving up Bogaerts, but I would not take anyone else off the table to get a top pitching prospect.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to notin's comment:

    The Pirates ate not trading Gerrit Cole. Period. 

     

    If the Sox work out a deal with Pittsburgh, on intriguing name  is Jose Tabata.  I think a lot of people forget how young he is, but this guy is only 4 months older than Bryce Brentz and is much, much more accomplished.

     

    He also is scheduled to be a fouth outfielder in Pitt and could probably be had...



    Im still interested in Garrett Jones.  Playing LF against righties is a 450 at-bat position.  I like Nava, but we could use Jones pop for those 450 at-bats.

    I would be willing to part w Morales.  I think Morales is expendable given the presence of 2 lefty starters in the rotation, De La Rosa in the works and a couple of swingment in the pen already (Taz, Aceves).

    Side note: I like Doubronts upside over Morales.  It seems like Doubies fastball has more movement.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront would need more movement since he does not throw as hard and isn't thst much younger. ..

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    The Pirates ate not trading Gerrit Cole. Period. 

     

    If the Sox work out a deal with Pittsburgh, on intriguing name  is Jose Tabata.  I think a lot of people forget how young he is, but this guy is only 4 months older than Bryce Brentz and is much, much more accomplished.

     

    He also is scheduled to be a fouth outfielder in Pitt and could probably be had...

     



    Im still interested in Garrett Jones.  Playing LF against righties is a 450 at-bat position.  I like Nava, but we could use Jones pop for those 450 at-bats.

     

    I would be willing to part w Morales.  I think Morales is expendable given the presence of 2 lefty starters in the rotation, De La Rosa in the works and a couple of swingment in the pen already (Taz, Aceves).

    Side note: I like Doubronts upside over Morales.  It seems like Doubies fastball has more movement.

     



    We look to have serious issues vs RHPs this year, so much for the grief over an all lefty OF.

     

    As of now, we can field a line-up vs LH'd starters that from the 2 to the 7 slot all have a 2 year combined Slg% over .500 vs LHPs! 

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

    Notes:

    1) As you can see, we are much worse vs RHPs than LHPs. Any line-up adjustment that helps can make a big difference in these games.

    2) One could argue moving Nava to the 1 or 2 slot if he can keep up his .390 OBP-- 2nd best on the team over the last 2 years!

     

     

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699

    Notes:

    1) Wow! The 2-7 hitters have all had SLG%s higher than .500 over the last 2 years! We should kill lefties this year.

    2) One could argue that leaving Pedey 2nd and putting Victorino 4th or 5th vs LHPs makes more sense, but I like his speed more than Pedey's.

    3) The 2 year numbers argue to move Ellsbury down and Gomes up, but Ellsbury has been pretty good vs LHPs upo to 2011.

    4) My guess is Naps' OBP vs LHPs the last 2 years is a fluke. 

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to notin's comment:

    Doubront would need more movement since he does not throw as hard and isn't thst much younger. ..



    True, but years of team control is a huge factor as well.

    Morales: 2

    Doubront: 5

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to notin's comment:

    Doubront would need more movement since he does not throw as hard and isn't thst much younger. ..



    Agreed.  But give me someone who throws 94, can locate, and has late break on his fastball over someone who throws a straight 96 MPH fastball w/ control issues.

    Im not saying that Doubront is a cant miss and Morales is a bust.  Who knows who will have the better career.

    Im just saying that if I had to keep one, Id keep Doubront.  He really impressed me with teh Ks last year.

     

Share