Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 2/10/2013 1:10 PM EST
In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
Then go by ERA+
In response to moonslav59's comment:
We have at least a 25% chance of being well above average in the starting pitching staff.
I'd put the odds at 25% we can just barely get to average.
A 25% chance of being well above average is not a lot to hope for but a case could be made for your position as well Moon. It is a roll of the dice every year but you never know when things will gel. Even a couple pitchers getting hot can chance everything.
Here is where we have been historically. Note that this is based upon ERA only, for the entire pitching staff, in a hitters park:
2012 - 27th
2011 - 22nd
2010 - 22nd
2009 - 16th
2008 - 9th
2007 - 2nd
2006 - 26th
2005 - 24th
2004 - 11th
2003 - 17th
In terms of runs scored again, in a hitters park:
2012 - 8th
2011 - 1st
2010 - 2nd
2009 - 3rd
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 4th
2006 - 9th
2005 - 1st
2004 - 1st
My point? Fenway is definitely a hitters park. You could take the best pitching staff in the country and move them to Fenway and you'd lose at least 1/2 a run per game right there. You could take the Redsox pitching staff to San Diego or Seattle and their ERA would go down by at least 1/2 run per game. The reality is that our pitching staff is better than it looks statistically. Especially when you factor in that most parks in the AL east are hitters parks.
2011 103 (With a great ERA year bt Beckett)
2012 108 (Pen: 86)
We were getting worse and we lost one of our top 2 starters.
Yes, we lost Dice-K, Cook and others, but I do not see Dempster and Lackey turning us from the worst to much better than average. There are too many "ifs"...
If Lester's 2nd hald 2012 was for real.
If Buchholtz can stay healthy and consistent.
If Doubront can improve on his huge WHIP.
If Lackey can defy age progression formulas and return to his form from 3-5 years ago.
If Dempster can pitch well in the AL east as he moves further away from his prime years.
If our good loking 6-7-8 starters can fill in when one goes down.
To me, we may be lucky if 2 of these "ifs" come true, maybe 3. Thre is not enough to turn us from worst to much better than average. We need 4 "ifs" to come true, or 3 with the others doing somewhere in between.
I understand your point about Fenway's influence on the numbers, but if you are going to upgrade our rotation's numbers due to Fenway, then you have to downgrade our offense's numbers and outlook, as they will likely struggle on the road again this year.