A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    FanGraphs columnist Carson Cistulli analyzes the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/



    The disparities between the ZiPS projections and the Bill James projections for our starting pitchers are substantial.  I thought James' projections were strangely optimistic.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    ZiPS projections:

    Lackey 127 IP 5.24 ERA

    Doubront 122 IP 4.59 ERA

    Bill James:

    Lackey 209 IP 4.05 ERA

    Doubront 202 IP 3.70 ERA

    Those are some differences!  What has Bill James been smoking anyway?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    FanGraphs columnist Carson Cistulli analyzes the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

     



    The disparities between the ZiPS projections and the Bill James projections for our starting pitchers are substantial.  I thought James' projections were strangely optimistic.

     



    James works for the Red Sox. What did you really expect him to say? That Lackey is a 5+ ERA pitcher? You cannot take his projections seriously if he is being paid by the team he for which he is making those projections.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here are his "projections" for the starting rotation. They are absurd. I want some of whatever he is smoking.

     

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I don't know enough specifics about players to know if a trade is possible or not.  I just try to see possibilities that might be possible.  If I become general manager of the RS, I'll look like crazy for guys that might help then let you finalize the trades.  As to Lincecum, article about him over the weekend.  Got a short haircut--wants a "new start."  Learned something I didn't know: he evidently gained and lost 30 lbs. over 2011-2012 and thinks that change messed up his mechanics.  All Giants people say it was mechanics that were messed up last year, no health issues.  I just don't see the Giants having two 24/25 million dollar pitchers but what do I know.  They say they'll let him pitch out his contract--this year--then make a decision.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Triumph-'s comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Here are his "projections" for the starting rotation. They are absurd. I want some of whatever he is smoking.

     

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70




     

     

     

    Your doom 2007 thread was absurd.




    You have nothing to offer here. You are going to be the first person I gladly put on ignore. So keep on ranting; I will not be listening.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    yeah triumph. if your going to heckle people, heckle people who deserve it :p

     

    i could use a heckle or two lol with stiffy gone i haven't been insulted in awhile. geo tries his best but he can't get out of his own way so i end up feeling sorry for him..

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Moon, I don't know enough specifics about players to know if a trade is possible or not.  I just try to see possibilities that might be possible.  If I become general manager of the RS, I'll look like crazy for guys that might help then let you finalize the trades.  As to Lincecum, article about him over the weekend.  Got a short haircut--wants a "new start."  Learned something I didn't know: he evidently gained and lost 30 lbs. over 2011-2012 and thinks that change messed up his mechanics.  All Giants people say it was mechanics that were messed up last year, no health issues.  I just don't see the Giants having two 24/25 million dollar pitchers but what do I know.  They say they'll let him pitch out his contract--this year--then make a decision.



    I think any player is available at a cost. Some GMs ask way too much for certain players, so, in a sense, they are "untouchables". I am certain that SF wants to keep Lincecum. They know winning rings is about pitching for the most part, and starting pitching in particular. That being said, they did win last year, essentially, without Lincecum, so I do think that his contract demands might make him a trade candidate, but certainly SF will not give him away.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70

     

    If this happens we may end up with the best record in baseball.

    Although Bill does work for the Sox, he did before, and I never remember him being extra kind to Sox players before.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70

     

    If this happens we may end up with the best record in baseball.

    Although Bill does work for the Sox, he did before, and I never remember him being extra kind to Sox players before.



    Imagine the flak he would take if his numbers were more like some of the other predictions such as Lackey having an ERA of 5.24. You do not bite the hand that feeds you, and right now, thats the Boston Red Sox.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70

     

    If this happens we may end up with the best record in baseball.

    Although Bill does work for the Sox, he did before, and I never remember him being extra kind to Sox players before.

     



    Imagine the flak he would take if his numbers were more like some of the other predictions such as Lackey having an ERA of 5.24. You do not bite the hand that feeds you, and right now, thats the Boston Red Sox.

     



    But, Bill did give unflattering projections to Sox pitchers in previous years while working for the Sox. That's what makes this so curious.

     
  13. This post has been removed.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70

     

    If this happens we may end up with the best record in baseball.

    Although Bill does work for the Sox, he did before, and I never remember him being extra kind to Sox players before.

     



    Imagine the flak he would take if his numbers were more like some of the other predictions such as Lackey having an ERA of 5.24. You do not bite the hand that feeds you, and right now, thats the Boston Red Sox.

     

     



    But, Bill did give unflattering projections to Sox pitchers in previous years while working for the Sox. That's what makes this so curious.

     



    There is also a caveat in the article I read that cited James' predictions: he admits that his prognostications for batters are generally more accurate than those for the pitchers. I suspect that the truth is somewhere in between the ZIP predictions and those of James. I do not expect Lackey to have an ERA over 5 again, nor do I expect four of the five SP to have ERAs under 4. IMO we will have a rotation that is somewhat below the AL average, probably ranking about 9th or 10th in ERA of the 14 teams. Lots of room for improvement next year (2014).

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70

    I know W-L is pretty meaningless, and Bill James' projections of pitchers' W-L even more so, but I find it a little humorous that our entire rotation will end up with 10-12 wins and 10-12 losses.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I feel like you do--that they won without him being dominant last year and that might enter their thinking.  All agree he is a great team mate--during the playoffs you'd see him hugging guys and cheering them on.  I'm not fixated on him--I'm just saying this is the type of guy that we should be looking into and I hope BC has been and will keep his eyes open.  As well as any teams that historically produce hitting (Atlanta/Cin.?) or small market teams that have guys on the verge of big contracts they might not be able to pay (Florida/Pitt)...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    FanGraphs columnist Carson Cistulli analyzes the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

     



    The disparities between the ZiPS projections and the Bill James projections for our starting pitchers are substantial.  I thought James' projections were strangely optimistic.

     

     



    James works for the Red Sox. What did you really expect him to say? That Lackey is a 5+ ERA pitcher? You cannot take his projections seriously if he is being paid by the team he for which he is making those projections.

     



    Yes I would expect that. And so would the Sox. After all, that is why they hired him.

     

    The Sox FO does get that his projections have no bearing on the actual season..

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Season 81-81
    Starters: Clay leads the teams in victories (14)...the rest sweat it out hovering around .500/10 wins

    RBI leader - Papi with 90
    BA leader - Pedroia .310
    HR leader - Middlebrooks with 28

    Saves Joel H with 28

    Key injury time: Pedroia 4 weeks for playing recklessly, Napoli 128 games missed with German Shepard Hips, Drew misses 30 games due to genetics,

    Farrell gets thrown out of six games, and two bench clearing brawls - one against the Rays, the other against the Yanks

    Salty is our only All Star - as a reserve

    We fight it out for 4th place.....

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70

    I know W-L is pretty meaningless, and Bill James' projections of pitchers' W-L even more so, but I find it a little humorous that our entire rotation will end up with 10-12 wins and 10-12 losses.



    I found that odd/funny too.  They are quite a tightly bunched group. 

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Moon, I feel like you do--that they won without him being dominant last year and that might enter their thinking.  All agree he is a great team mate--during the playoffs you'd see him hugging guys and cheering them on.  I'm not fixated on him--I'm just saying this is the type of guy that we should be looking into and I hope BC has been and will keep his eyes open.  As well as any teams that historically produce hitting (Atlanta/Cin.?) or small market teams that have guys on the verge of big contracts they might not be able to pay (Florida/Pitt)...



    Think of this though: how would posters like Geo and the Boston media treat Lincecum for being so bad at the end of a season that he was basiacally benched for the WS?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    if I recall, I was all for Lincecum being a Sox even after his bad year...he is an awesome team player....and he is a freak of nature....

     

    we need five of this guy Moon!

    or Five Scutaros!

    0r even Five Aviles!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to georom4's comment:

    if I recall, I was all for Lincecum being a Sox even after his bad year...he is an awesome team player....and he is a freak of nature....

     

    we need five of this guy Moon!

    or Five Scutaros!

    0r even Five Aviles!



    Good one Geo!  

    Geo, if you could have 5 of any starters we have right now, which one would you choose?

    How about 9 of any positional player?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    My colleague at work told me that he thinks the AL West is the most competitive division.  I told him that the A's, Angels, and Rangers will have 18 picnic days playing the Astros.  LOL

    The most competitive division is without a doubt, the AL East.  Any team in the AL East can win the division as well as finish in last place. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    My colleague at work told me that he thinks the AL West is the most competitive division.  I told him that the A's, Angels, and Rangers will have 18 picnic days playing the Astros.  LOL

    The most competitive division is without a doubt, the AL East.  Any team in the AL East can win the division as well as finish in last place. 



    True, but none could win the AL West even with 18 picnic days. BTW, we get 7.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Alex Speier has offered his take on Ben's offseason over at WEEI. It's not doom and gloom, but it's not exactly warm and fuzzy either. I would say overall it's a pretty fair analysis.

     
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