A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    how does holt stack up defensively? Ciriaco is probably the best IF'er on the team (save pedey) and his value could be in the late innings as a defensive replacement at SS..

    I thought he was a big plus fielder too, but never understood why when both he and Aviles were playing, Aviles was at SS.

     




    well that's on BV, i'm still waiting to hear why he put ciriaco at DH when pedroia was just coming back from injury. But it would make too much sense to keep your injured 2Bman out of the field (where he incurred the injury no less) and slot your best defensive IFer in the field.

     



    I haven't seen Ciriaco play enough to have a sense of how good he really is on defense. I do trust soxprospects...

    "Scouting Report: Excellent defensive shortstop with good speed.  Makes decent contact, but has below average plate discipline and minimal power.  "

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    how does holt stack up defensively? Ciriaco is probably the best IF'er on the team (save pedey) and his value could be in the late innings as a defensive replacement at SS..

    I thought he was a big plus fielder too, but never understood why when both he and Aviles were playing, Aviles was at SS.

     




    well that's on BV, i'm still waiting to hear why he put ciriaco at DH when pedroia was just coming back from injury. But it would make too much sense to keep your injured 2Bman out of the field (where he incurred the injury no less) and slot your best defensive IFer in the field.

     

     



    I haven't seen Ciriaco play enough to have a sense of how good he really is on defense. I do trust soxprospects...

     

    "Scouting Report: Excellent defensive shortstop with good speed.  Makes decent contact, but has below average plate discipline and minimal power.  "



    i knew he was great defensively just watching him play last season. There are some guys you just know it when you see it. I bet you didn't have to see Iggy play many games to know he was great defensively eh?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    how does holt stack up defensively? Ciriaco is probably the best IF'er on the team (save pedey) and his value could be in the late innings as a defensive replacement at SS..

    I thought he was a big plus fielder too, but never understood why when both he and Aviles were playing, Aviles was at SS.

     




    well that's on BV, i'm still waiting to hear why he put ciriaco at DH when pedroia was just coming back from injury. But it would make too much sense to keep your injured 2Bman out of the field (where he incurred the injury no less) and slot your best defensive IFer in the field.

     

     



    I haven't seen Ciriaco play enough to have a sense of how good he really is on defense. I do trust soxprospects...

     

    "Scouting Report: Excellent defensive shortstop with good speed.  Makes decent contact, but has below average plate discipline and minimal power.  "

     



    i knew he was great defensively just watching him play last season. There are some guys you just know it when you see it. I bet you didn't have to see Iggy play many games to know he was great defensively eh?

     



    I agree. He did look way better than anyone else we had on the team at that time, but I questioned my own observations based on the fact that he was being used as a DH at times. I doubt that was all about Bobby V. I think Ben must have been part of that discussion.

    Here's what soxprospects says about Holt:

    "Decent glove.  Fringe-average arm, quickness, and range make him better suited for second base, although defense at shortstop may be passable enough to be a utility man.   "

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    I wonder which team in 2013 will be the "surprise team".  In 2012, both the Oakland A's and Baltimore O's surprised all of us.  Which team will it be in 2013?  Royals?  Mariners? Or the Yankees by finishing in last place?  LOL

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32910/mariners-will-be-this-years-surprise-team

    http://www.billjamesonline.com/which_team_will_surprise_in_2013_/

    This Seattle fan won't get his hopes too high.



    MLB Network analyst Bill Plesac joins the "surprise" bandwagon of the Seattle Mariners:

     

    http://blogs.seattletimes.com/hotstoneleague/2013/02/14/plesac-sees-mariners-as-surprise-team-and-hes-not-alone-but-metrics-dont-agree/

    Would Seattle still be a surprise if enough pundits peg the Mariners as a surprise team? The pessimistic projections of the advance metrics indeed suggest that the M's would be a surprise with a successful season.



    Nice article.  Thank you hill55.  :)

    The Mariners have made some nice moves to bolster their offense.  But I do not think its enough to compete for a playoff berth.  Then again, before the 2012 season, I predicted the O's to finish last in the AL East and the A's to win at most, 75 games.  LOL

    But I will say this, I think the Mariners will win more games in 2013 than the Rangers. 

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    I wonder which team in 2013 will be the "surprise team".  In 2012, both the Oakland A's and Baltimore O's surprised all of us.  Which team will it be in 2013?  Royals?  Mariners? Or the Yankees by finishing in last place?  LOL

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32910/mariners-will-be-this-years-surprise-team

    http://www.billjamesonline.com/which_team_will_surprise_in_2013_/

    This Seattle fan won't get his hopes too high.



    MLB Network analyst Bill Plesac joins the "surprise" bandwagon of the Seattle Mariners:

     

    http://blogs.seattletimes.com/hotstoneleague/2013/02/14/plesac-sees-mariners-as-surprise-team-and-hes-not-alone-but-metrics-dont-agree/

    Would Seattle still be a surprise if enough pundits peg the Mariners as a surprise team? The pessimistic projections of the advance metrics indeed suggest that the M's would be a surprise with a successful season.

     



    Nice article.  Thank you hill55.  :)

     

    The Mariners have made some nice moves to bolster their offense.  But I do not think its enough to compete for a playoff berth.  Then again, before the 2012 season, I predicted the O's to finish last in the AL East and the A's to win at most, 75 games.  LOL

    But I will say this, I think the Mariners will win more games in 2013 than the Rangers. 

     



    harness had picked the O's as his sleeper team of 2011. He was laughed at, but as it turned out, he was just a year off.

    I miss harness (and many others... like katz?)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    how does holt stack up defensively? Ciriaco is probably the best IF'er on the team (save pedey) and his value could be in the late innings as a defensive replacement at SS..

    I thought he was a big plus fielder too, but never understood why when both he and Aviles were playing, Aviles was at SS.

     




    well that's on BV, i'm still waiting to hear why he put ciriaco at DH when pedroia was just coming back from injury. But it would make too much sense to keep your injured 2Bman out of the field (where he incurred the injury no less) and slot your best defensive IFer in the field.

     

     



    I haven't seen Ciriaco play enough to have a sense of how good he really is on defense. I do trust soxprospects...

     

    "Scouting Report: Excellent defensive shortstop with good speed.  Makes decent contact, but has below average plate discipline and minimal power.  "

     



    i knew he was great defensively just watching him play last season. There are some guys you just know it when you see it. I bet you didn't have to see Iggy play many games to know he was great defensively eh?

     

     



    I agree. He did look way better than anyone else we had on the team at that time, but I questioned my own observations based on the fact that he was being used as a DH at times. I doubt that was all about Bobby V. I think Ben must have been part of that discussion.

     

    Here's what soxprospects says about Holt:

    "Decent glove.  Fringe-average arm, quickness, and range make him better suited for second base, although defense at shortstop may be passable enough to be a utility man.   "



    well we know how disconnected BV was to his coaches. Is it hard to believe he didn't talk to BC either??

    i think Ciriaco at DH was just another BV bonehead move... unless Pedroia made the decision himself that he was going to play in the field.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Hello moonslav59  :)

    I laughed at Billy Beane for giving a 4-year, $36 million deal to Cespedes.  Beane proved me wrong again.  I also picked the Angels to win the World Series in 2012.  LOL

    This year, I look forward to seeing how the AL East will play out.  I doubt the O's will go 29-9 in one-run games and 16-2 in extra innings again............but I may be wrong.   LOL

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Just to add a bit about Ciriaco, I was a big fan of his last year, liked his acrobatic play at SS and his bat and running.  However, I watched him play third several times and he looked absolutely terrible, like a fish out of water, everyone was telling him where to stand, didn't seem to know how to attack balls, made terrible throws to first.  I would like him on the team but he will have to work to be a "utility" player.  He seems to have the body to be an outfielder if needed...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Yes Moon, I miss some of the guys and I miss that guy who was here when I first started reading four or five years ago--RedSox2024--or something like that.  He was feisty and opinionated and sometimes I thought a little too pugnacious--he used to really get into it with Softy and Boom--but I liked his ideas and enthusiasm.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    Hello moonslav59  :)

    I laughed at Billy Beane for giving a 4-year, $36 million deal to Cespedes.  Beane proved me wrong again.  I also picked the Angels to win the World Series in 2012.  LOL

    This year, I look forward to seeing how the AL East will play out.  I doubt the O's will go 29-9 in one-run games and 16-2 in extra innings again............but I may be wrong.   LOL

     

     



    i wanted us to land Cespedes last offseason but considering our financial situation i knew it was not a reality.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The thing I like most about Ciriaco is how he plays against the Yankees. :-) And apparently there's good news on Napoli as the MRI on his hip came back clean.

    http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/02/16/mike-napoli-mri-provides-good-news/

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Last year in Spring Training Ciriaco was absolutely the best player on the team, and he played all over the field, infield and outfield. So he is the obvious candidate for that utility spot and Holt will be insurance at Pawtucket I believe. OBP is not the determining factor when picking a utility infielder; versatility, speed both on defense and to pinch-run and the ability to execute baseball plays at bat like bunts and hit-and-runs are the qualities you look for in a utility man.

     But it's the guys who toe the rubber who will make or break this team, not the 25th guy on the roster. I'm heading down on Tuesday, can't wait!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Last year in Spring Training Ciriaco was absolutely the best player on the team, and he played all over the field, infield and outfield. So he is the obvious candidate for that utility spot and Holt will be insurance at Pawtucket I believe. OBP is not the determining factor when picking a utility infielder; versatility, speed both on defense and to pinch-run and the ability to execute baseball plays at bat like bunts and hit-and-runs are the qualities you look for in a utility man.

     But it's the guys who toe the rubber who will make or break this team, not the 25th guy on the roster. I'm heading down on Tuesday, can't wait!




    enjoy yourself at Fenway South jid...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, next year let's rent an old bus and all go together!  Critter

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    Hello moonslav59  :)

    I laughed at Billy Beane for giving a 4-year, $36 million deal to Cespedes.  Beane proved me wrong again.  I also picked the Angels to win the World Series in 2012.  LOL

    This year, I look forward to seeing how the AL East will play out.  I doubt the O's will go 29-9 in one-run games and 16-2 in extra innings again............but I may be wrong.   LOL

     




    A lot of people got much wrong last year, including me.

    :(

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Yes Moon, I miss some of the guys and I miss that guy who was here when I first started reading four or five years ago--RedSox2024--or something like that.  He was feisty and opinionated and sometimes I thought a little too pugnacious--he used to really get into it with Softy and Boom--but I liked his ideas and enthusiasm.



    I think it was RedSox0407 or something like that... yeah he was a good poster who rarely backed down from a good argument.

    Lot's have been driven away by likes of softy and pike.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, next year let's rent an old bus and all go together!  Critter



    Can we all sing "The Wheels on the Bus"?  It's my grandson's favorite song.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    No flat tires!

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Some things I will be looking for at ST...

    First it was very obvious from day one last year that the players did not respect Bobby V. I hope it's equally obvious this year that they DO respect Farrell.

    The rumblings about Doubront's conditioning are disturbing. I'm anxious to see first hand just how true they are. If it is true and it's not the first time in his young career, you have to wonder what, if anything is going on inside his left-handed brain. As an old catcher, there was never a ton of respect for pitchers' smarts, especially the lefties. With the exception of you, Amp!

    Just how long and to what extent are Ortiz and Napoli going to be pampered.

    Can Victorino and Drew turn the clock back a few years to when they were both very productive players. This lineup gets a HUGE boost if they can come close to their better years. Fenway has a way of making all hitters better.

    Farrell and Nieves are going to have to use "B" games to get all the arms enough reps to decide who to keep. I doubt it will happen, but I'd like to see them bring the best pitchers north, not just the ones who are out of options. A trade could help eliminate the logjam, but too often after you make one of those trades an injury or two occurs that makes you wish you didn't make the deal.

    I think the Ross addition to the catching crew can be a huge addition. I don't want to rekindle the old CERA debate, but I am a strong believer in it. But I also believe that the huge disparities should not exist on a team where everybody is working towards a common goal. If Ross has an idea and he's not in the lineup, it should be pretty easy to get that idea to Salty and the pitcher.

    This team should be much stronger defensively than last year's model. A healthy Ellsbury and Pedroia, Ross behind the plate, and to some degree Drew over Aviles should really upgrade the "up the middle" defense. Victorino is a big upgrade in right (I thought Cody Ross was vastly overrated defensively) and if Napoli and Gomes don't perform like butchers the overall defense will be better, and that can only help the pitching staff. 

    And that brings me to the final thing to look for...can these guys pitch?? There are a lot of "if's", in fact every projected starter comes with at least one. But IF they can all come close to career averages then this can be a quality staff. If they look more like the 2012 versions of themselves then we should be ready for Webster, De La Rosa, Wright and others to see lots of action in the second half.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to UnionFallsNY's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Here are his "projections" for the starting rotation. They are absurd. I want some of whatever he is smoking.

     

    Jon Lester 12-12, 3.71 Clay Buchholz 12-11, 3.64 Ryan Dempster 11-10, 3.74 Jon Lackey 12-12, 4.05 Felix Doubront 12-11, 3.70




     

    What is absurd is the mediocre W-L projections and the better than expected ERA's.



    If we get those numbers from the starters, our pen should make us a playoff team. I think the conservative win/loss numbers with pretty decent ERA's reflect an expectation that the pen is the true strength of the staff. It also says that this team may not score like traditional Sox teams and a lot of close, low-scoring games will be decided in the pen.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    pedro C was a great player last year - i truly believed that he could start at 2b, ss, or 3b depending on the lineup...he is one of the guys i will enjoy watching this season...

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Some things I will be looking for at ST...

    First it was very obvious from day one last year that the players did not respect Bobby V. I hope it's equally obvious this year that they DO respect Farrell.

    This could be a big plus this year.

     

    The rumblings about Doubront's conditioning are disturbing. I'm anxious to see first hand just how true they are. If it is true and it's not the first time in his young career, you have to wonder what, if anything is going on inside his left-handed brain. As an old catcher, there was never a ton of respect for pitchers' smarts, especially the lefties. With the exception of you, Amp!

    Just as I have defended Beckett against geo's rants based on the tendency for a person to not radiaclly change his personality over a short time, I expressed my concern over Doubie's attitude after the 2011 fiasco. 

    I'm not giving up on him, but I am certain that many here who have been defending him would be bashing me if I was suggesting trading for a pitcher on another team with a history of coming to camp with the chance of a lifetime our of shape.

    I'm not shocked, but I am hoping I don't get to say, "I told you so".

     

    Just how long and to what extent are Ortiz and Napoli going to be pampered.

    Nap's hip injury is very touchy. The hip is probably the most important part of the body when it comes to hitting... see ARod and Lowell. I'm encouraged by the recent reports that it is not getting worse.

    Papi's injury is just as touchy and hard to avoid with pampering. One false step or turn and it could be the season. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

     

    Can Victorino and Drew turn the clock back a few years to when they were both very productive players. This lineup gets a HUGE boost if they can come close to their better years. Fenway has a way of making all hitters better. 

    Fenway can also mess up a swing, especially for notorious pull hitting RH'ers. I think with Drew, it is all about his health. If he is healthy, he will come close to his career high numbers. That might be a big if, since he may never get to 100% again. SV worries me vs RHPs, and he has played a lot of games over his career. I worry that he may be an "old 32".

     

    Farrell and Nieves are going to have to use "B" games to get all the arms enough reps to decide who to keep. I doubt it will happen, but I'd like to see them bring the best pitchers north, not just the ones who are out of options. A trade could help eliminate the logjam, but too often after you make one of those trades an injury or two occurs that makes you wish you didn't make the deal.

    I think if all our pitchers stay healthy and look good in ST (extremely unlikely), we will get creative with the DL. We will also be able to keep Taz and Bard in AAA until needed.

     

    I think the Ross addition to the catching crew can be a huge addition. I don't want to rekindle the old CERA debate, but I am a strong believer in it. But I also believe that the huge disparities should not exist on a team where everybody is working towards a common goal. If Ross has an idea and he's not in the lineup, it should be pretty easy to get that idea to Salty and the pitcher.

    Shoppach had pretty good CERA numbers before we signed him last winter. Perhaps, Ross is even better, but one encouraging trend was the fact that Salty was nearly even with Shoppach in CERA after April 23, 2012.

     

     

    This team should be much stronger defensively than last year's model. A healthy Ellsbury and Pedroia, Ross behind the plate, and to some degree Drew over Aviles should really upgrade the "up the middle" defense. Victorino is a big upgrade in right (I thought Cody Ross was vastly overrated defensively) and if Napoli and Gomes don't perform like butchers the overall defense will be better, and that can only help the pitching staff. 

    I was not a big fan of Aviles' D at SS before last season began, but he really surprised me on defense. I am not sure that Drew can do much better. I guess he still has a pin in his ankle. Our RF/9 at SS last season was a very respectable 4.70.

    A healthy Middlebrooks should be a big improvement over all the games that Youk and Ciriaco played at 3B last year (298 innings by Ciriaco & 248 by Youk, plus 160 by Punto and over 130 by Valencia, Gomez, Aviles, Spears and De Jesus.)

    One big area we can improve in is the OF. You mentioned Ellsbury, but I think Byrd, Pods, Kalish and Sweeney did pretty good last year in CF. Our biggest weakensses in the OF last year were the corners:

    LF: Nava 611 innings, Ross  166, and DMac 149

    RF: C Ross 767 innings, AGon 127, DMac 36 and Nava with 20.

    Although Gomes is no better than Ross, he will be restricted to LF, and playing in Fenway half the games might help hide that weak link somewhat. If Sweeney beats out Nava, we should improve LF defense, but the huge gain will be in RF. Victorino should blow Cody's D away.

    Here is a list of our 2012 OF defense by innings:

    Ross 767

    Nava  633 (That's a combined 1400 innings of horrible defense!)

    Ells   611

    Sweeney  467

    Pods  437

    Byrd  256

    Craw 246

    Kalish  231

    DMac  215

    AGon  127

    Lin  40

    Repko 32

    Lillibridge 30

    Ciriaco 20

    Lars A  9

    Spears 4

     

    And that brings me to the final thing to look for...can these guys pitch?? There are a lot of "if's", in fact every projected starter comes with at least one. But IF they can all come close to career averages then this can be a quality staff. If they look more like the 2012 versions of themselves then we should be ready for Webster, De La Rosa, Wright and others to see lots of action in the second half.

    Career:

    Lester  3.76 (119 ERA+)  1.306 WHIP  (Can be a good #2 type)

    Buch     3.92 (113)  1.339     (Can be a good 32 type, if healthy)

    Lackey 4.10 (107)  1.345    (Might be a good #3 type)

    Demp   4.33 (99)    1.430  (His ERA+ and WHIP are not encouraging then the age thing...)

    Doub    4.86 (90)    1.477  (Not impressive)

    If these guys give us there career averages, I see maybe 2 number 2's, a number3, a number 4, and a number 5. That's a lot of ifs to just get us to mediocrity. 

    Yes, we have the hope that Morales, Tazawa or DLR may step up and surprise, but I'd rather us not have to pray on a remarkable confluence of happenings to make us an average or  top half rotation.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Yes Moon, I miss some of the guys and I miss that guy who was here when I first started reading four or five years ago--RedSox2024--or something like that.  He was feisty and opinionated and sometimes I thought a little too pugnacious--he used to really get into it with Softy and Boom--but I liked his ideas and enthusiasm.


    I think it was RedSox0407 or something like that... yeah he was a good poster who rarely backed down from a good argument.

     

    Lot's have been driven away by likes of softy and pike.

     

    He's on other boards still. When any of us aren't having fun here we should just leave. It isn't worth it. Some of us are stubborn as heck, and if I'm considered that way so be it. Baseball is not an exact science. Lots of times people are going to disagree on issues but that doesn't make them worth 10 pages of insults. I have no problem leaving when it isn't worth it to me to argue. Many of us are old with not all that much time left. It isn't worth it to argue over some stupid issue which some guy just can't let go.


     

     
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