A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    They were options for any GM that could afford them. Ben chose not to pursue them, or we never heard that he tried. We have a right to disagree with Ben and anyone who feels the same as he did.

     

     



    Ok, fair enough, but I get the feeling that if 10 different Doctors told you that McCarthy will never be able to pitch again and McCarthy retired, you'd still post that Ben should've signed him.  Once you get on a guy, it doesn't seem to matter that there is overwhelming evidence as to why they shouldn't sign him.  

     



    Good one!  ;)

    Actually, although I never said we should sign Lackey, because I thought he'd get $100+M, I was glad we got him for "so cheap". Later, I admitted I was wrong. I'll do the same if McCarthy stinks, but if he gets hurt on a freak play, it will be ahrd to project that would have happened had he signed here.

    If Dempster stinks up the place, will you come back and agree that we could have done better for 2014 and beyond with $26M?

     

     We can agree to disagree, we are good at it!

    One of these days you'll agree with me and get one right.

    (LOL)

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I didn't like the McCarthy option either but he was clearly cheap! And I do like cheap!

    McCarthy took forever to become good and I don't believe he is as good as his recent numbers indicate. I haven't studied him like Moon though as he is as comprehensive as you get in a forum. Who knows!

    I don't think we are in "project" mode any more. We've been there and done that. We don't have a lot of 40 man roster spots. to me, it is likely that we trade a reliever or 2 before the end of spring training. And health concerns seem to bite us in the behind every time, especially at starter. They went with the guy they felt would be most likely to give them a lot of innings and they are going to hope the other guys give them the lights out performances. And there is some hope of that happening. It's not impossible!

    Who is going to step up this year! Who is going to surprise us? Will Iglesias be this year's Ciriacco? Will JBJ put himself in position for an early summer call up just from showing just how ready he is? What a difference that would make if he can come in and be a lead off guy for us. More on JBJ in a minute.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Look at the splits for our Outfielders. We are all set against LH pitching, but they are only around 1/3 of the total games:

    Ellsbury,

    Gomes ( great splits against LH pitching )

    Victorino ( tremendous splits against LH pitching )

    This team should be much better against LH pitching this year IMO.

     

    But God help us against RH pitching:

    Ellsbury

    Sweeney/Victorino

    Nava ( and Nava might be needed at 1st or DH some if either Ortiz or Napoli go down )

    It would seem very possible that we are going to need OF help against RH pitching IMO.

    So, in the absence of a trade or another realistic option what if JBJ just tears it up at the beginning of this year? Gets on base a lot and shows the same kind of plate discipline and maturity he showed last year. Is real solid defensively. In our current situation he could be a mid season call up. And if he makes that leap it could really position this team with better on base skills and defense for the playoff push. the kid is a winner and he will be 23 by then. He just might be ready to shine!

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Anybody with some thoughts on Brandon Workman?  Any hope as a middle or back of the rotation guy?  His minor league numbers show a nice K/BB ratio.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Anybody with some thoughts on Brandon Workman?  Any hope as a middle or back of the rotation guy?  His minor league numbers show a nice K/BB ratio.




    Now I'm no scout, but I've been hoarding prospect scouting reports all winter and this is the consensus I get from the scouting community on him.

    Workman originally appeared destined to the bullpen as most of his pitches were behind his cutter (which is a plus pitch for him)  But I guess a lot of his secondary pitches have come along lately, which has pushed his ceiling up, and his likely hood to stick as a starter.

    Now my concern with Workman is his biggest developmental needs at this stage are to smooth out his delivery and make it more repeatable. Workman as a "high effort" delivery, which in time will increase his likelihood of injury as the innings compile on his arm.  He's still young, and if he has made progress in many other areas then I would be optimistic that he is smooting out his delivery as well.

    I'm sure with the progress he has made the Sox will give him every opportunity to start. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    But God help us against RH pitching

     

    I started a thread on Sox splits. We look fantastic vs LHPs, but facing about 50 RH'd starters on the road looks scary to me. We may be lucky to win 20 of those 50- meaning we might have to go 70-42 in the rest to make the playoffs. Not impossible, but not easy for team coming off a 69 win season.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     They went with the guy they felt would be most likely to give them a lot of innings ...

    With such a deep staff, I didn't see the need to grap an "innings eater" 4th starter profile pitcher. We could have had Morales, DLR, Tazawa or even Mortensen step up if McCarthy or Marcum got hurt or underperformed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    They were options for any GM that could afford them. Ben chose not to pursue them, or we never heard that he tried. We have a right to disagree with Ben and anyone who feels the same as he did.

     

     



    Ok, fair enough, but I get the feeling that if 10 different Doctors told you that McCarthy will never be able to pitch again and McCarthy retired, you'd still post that Ben should've signed him.  Once you get on a guy, it doesn't seem to matter that there is overwhelming evidence as to why they shouldn't sign him.  

     

     



    Good one!  ;)

     

    Actually, although I never said we should sign Lackey, because I thought he'd get $100+M, I was glad we got him for "so cheap". Later, I admitted I was wrong. I'll do the same if McCarthy stinks, but if he gets hurt on a freak play, it will be ahrd to project that would have happened had he signed here.

    If Dempster stinks up the place, will you come back and agree that we could have done better for 2014 and beyond with $26M?

     

     We can agree to disagree, we are good at it!

    One of these days you'll agree with me and get one right.

    (LOL)

     



    Okay...fair enough, Moon.  Dempster definitely wasn't my first choice, but I understand why he makes some sense for this club.  It all depends on Lester & Buchholz as to whether or not they make a run.  It sounds like I'm due to be right!  ;)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Okay...fair enough, Moon.  Dempster definitely wasn't my first choice, but I understand why he makes some sense for this club.  It all depends on Lester & Buchholz as to whether or not they make a run.  It sounds like I'm due to be right!  ;)

    I don't disagree with anything here, so maybe we can finally agree to agree.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Fun facts   :)

    Guess how many teams Octavio Dotel has played for?

    A. 9

    B. 11

    C. 13

    D. 15

     

    Next fun fact  :)

    Among which of these four teams scored the least runs on the road in 2012?

    A. Tampa Bay

    B. Seattle

    C. Boston

    D. Texas

     

    Answers are below   :)

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Dotel played for 13 teams and among the four teams, the Rangers scored the least runs on the road in 2013. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Okay...fair enough, Moon.  Dempster definitely wasn't my first choice, but I understand why he makes some sense for this club.  It all depends on Lester & Buchholz as to whether or not they make a run.  It sounds like I'm due to be right!  ;)

    I don't disagree with anything here, so maybe we can finally agree to agree.



    We do not know what to expect from players such as Dempster, McCarthy, or Berkman.  I guess we will find out this year.   :)

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    ...the Rangers scored the least runs on the road in 2013. 

    Actually, as of right now, it's a 30 team tie for last place with zero.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Okay...fair enough, Moon.  Dempster definitely wasn't my first choice, but I understand why he makes some sense for this club.  It all depends on Lester & Buchholz as to whether or not they make a run.  It sounds like I'm due to be right!  ;)

    I don't disagree with anything here, so maybe we can finally agree to agree.

     



    We do not know what to expect from players such as Dempster, McCarthy, or Berkman.  I guess we will find out this year.   :)

     

     



    My point is even if Dempster gives us a great 220 innings in 2013, it likely will not get us to the playoffs and does very little to help us beyond 2014. Signing McCarthy to $25M/3 has an infinitely better chance at helping us in 2015 than Dempster's deal that expires after 2014 at about age 37.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We keep going year after year with a devasted rotation due to injuries. The likelihood of a guy giving us 200 innings is a significant data point on any team, and especially ours if recent history is an example.

    I think they gave more credence to that issue this year. When you crunch the numbers what would McCarthy be likely to have given us? Probably less than 100 innings as past experiences indicate. And if you have to stockpile guys like that to get one 200 inning guy you have roster issues unless those guys have options. That's why guys like De LaRosa are valuable. He's probably roughly equivalent to McCarthy in projected innings and overall numbers and he is cheaper with more upside and I bet he has an option left as well ( maybe not, I'm not sure ).

    We don't have a lot of superstars but if even 2-3 guys in the rotation have good years we should be in the running for a wildcard berth.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We keep going year after year with a devasted rotation due to injuries. The likelihood of a guy giving us 200 innings is a significant data point on any team, and especially ours if recent history is an example.

    I think they gave more credence to that issue this year. When you crunch the numbers what would McCarthy be likely to have given us? Probably less than 100 innings as past experiences indicate. And if you have to stockpile guys like that to get one 200 inning guy you have roster issues unless those guys have options. That's why guys like De LaRosa are valuable. He's probably roughly equivalent to McCarthy in projected innings and overall numbers and he is cheaper with more upside and I bet he has an option left as well ( maybe not, I'm not sure ).

    If we were serios contenders then the 200 inning lock pitcher seems worthy, but Dempster is not young.

    If we accepted the fact that we aren't going anywhere too far this year, those 200 innings could have been used by McCarthy, Morales, Tazawa, de la Rosa, and even Mortensen or Webster/Wright. True, we might get worse results for 2013, but we'd have McCarthy for 2015, and the $26M to spend elsewhere.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Man, I can't wait for the season to start so we can finally stop arguing about projections. Projections are just that, projections; i.e. guesses. Educated guesses certainly, at least in a lot of cases, but still guesses. The fact is that none of us really knows how things are going to play out this year. Some will be cheering for the Red Sox to do poorly so they can be proven right. I don't think anyone on this thread will be doing that, as we are all (mostly) pretty levelheaded when it comes to baseball. Now I didn't want Ben to go out and sign Dempster and I said so when he was signed, but he's a Red Sock now for better or worse, so I'll be cheering for him to pitch 200+ innings with an ERA around 4. In the same way I'll be cheering for John Lackey to win comeback player of the year, even though I think he might be an Angel saboteur. If even a few things go right with our starting pitching I think this could be a playoff team, and really, what more can you ask for?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    Man, I can't wait for the season to start so we can finally stop arguing about projections. Projections are just that, projections; i.e. guesses. Educated guesses certainly, at least in a lot of cases, but still guesses. The fact is that none of us really knows how things are going to play out this year. Some will be cheering for the Red Sox to do poorly so they can be proven right. I don't think anyone on this thread will be doing that, as we are all (mostly) pretty levelheaded when it comes to baseball. Now I didn't want Ben to go out and sign Dempster and I said so when he was signed, but he's a Red Sock now for better or worse, so I'll be cheering for him to pitch 200+ innings with an ERA around 4. In the same way I'll be cheering for John Lackey to win comeback player of the year, even though I think he might be an Angel saboteur. If even a few things go right with our starting pitching I think this could be a playoff team, and really, what more can you ask for?



    well said...and there are enough players on the roster who are going to be nice to watch regardless of how poorly we do...and dont forget the kids coming up if we do stink it up...that is a serious silver lining...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    We keep going year after year with a devasted rotation due to injuries. The likelihood of a guy giving us 200 innings is a significant data point on any team, and especially ours if recent history is an example.

    I think they gave more credence to that issue this year. When you crunch the numbers what would McCarthy be likely to have given us? Probably less than 100 innings as past experiences indicate. And if you have to stockpile guys like that to get one 200 inning guy you have roster issues unless those guys have options. That's why guys like De LaRosa are valuable. He's probably roughly equivalent to McCarthy in projected innings and overall numbers and he is cheaper with more upside and I bet he has an option left as well ( maybe not, I'm not sure ).

    If we were serios contenders then the 200 inning lock pitcher seems worthy, but Dempster is not young.

    If we accepted the fact that we aren't going anywhere too far this year, those 200 innings could have been used by McCarthy, Morales, Tazawa, de la Rosa, and even Mortensen or Webster/Wright. True, we might get worse results for 2013, but we'd have McCarthy for 2015, and the $26M to spend elsewhere.



    How would we have $26 million to spend elsewhere if we signed McCarthy?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It's a business. It's a business. It's a business.

    We are just along for the ride. Management is managing their business for profit, because they want to win, for legacy issues ( pride of ownership, doing the right thing by Redsox tradition, having something to pass on after they are gone...etc. ). They are making decisons for all those reasons. It's not let's tank this season to the max because we have near zero chance to win because it might give us a 10% better chance to win next year. that is not going to happen in this market. The sox have too much to lose to go down that road.

    It's not a fantasy league team. It's real and if the team doesn't win, or at least have a chance to win, then most fans won't watch.

    Including me. That's just how I see it, honestly, and I bet they look at it that way also. I'll admit it. I am to a degree a fair weather fan. I hope they win. I want them to put an entertaining team on the field but if they stink I've got other things to do with my life.

    And I bet if we ask ourselves sincerely, most of us would feel the same way. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We keep going year after year with a devasted rotation due to injuries. The likelihood of a guy giving us 200 innings is a significant data point on any team, and especially ours if recent history is an example.

    I think they gave more credence to that issue this year. When you crunch the numbers what would McCarthy be likely to have given us? Probably less than 100 innings as past experiences indicate. And if you have to stockpile guys like that to get one 200 inning guy you have roster issues unless those guys have options. That's why guys like De LaRosa are valuable. He's probably roughly equivalent to McCarthy in projected innings and overall numbers and he is cheaper with more upside and I bet he has an option left as well ( maybe not, I'm not sure ).

    If we were serios contenders then the 200 inning lock pitcher seems worthy, but Dempster is not young.

    If we accepted the fact that we aren't going anywhere too far this year, those 200 innings could have been used by McCarthy, Morales, Tazawa, de la Rosa, and even Mortensen or Webster/Wright. True, we might get worse results for 2013, but we'd have McCarthy for 2015, and the $26M to spend elsewhere.

     




    I dont want my ownership and GM to think that way. They think we CAN go somewhere this year. Maybe not to the WS, but at least put a solid competitive team on the field...In a big market like Boston, giving up before the season even begins isnt an option. Especially considering the teams finances.

     

    Do we really want to rely on 4+ pitchers giving us 200IP and taking away from their development( RDLR,Webster) or usefulness in the BP (Tazawa), when Dempster can give us all those innings? Its only a 2yr deal and personally I like the loose attitude and the way he goes about his business. Players like that are good for the young guys.

    I agree though that I think we will see Steven Wright in a couple games this year.

    With McCarthys injury history and age (30 in July), whos to know if hes even a guarantee in 2015 at age 32...So yes, Id rather give 2/26 for what Dempster brings to the table instead of McCarthy. We can agree to disagree on that.

    Now, Im realistic and agree with you that a lot has to go right this year, performance and health wise. Personally, I just dont have a "pack it in" attitude before the season even starts. Anything can, and usually does happen in MLB...Id rather they put asolid effort to compete and make adjustments mid season than not compete at all and just look towards 2015 like some small market team.

    If you are indeed correct Moon, I will say so and hope we can sell off some current players for players/prospects that will help us in 2014 and beyond...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

    It's a business. It's a business. It's a business.

    We are just along for the ride. Management is managing their business for profit, because they want to win, for legacy issues ( pride of ownership, doing the right thing by Redsox tradition, having something to pass on after they are gone...etc. ). They are making decisons for all those reasons. It's not let's tank this season to the max because we have near zero chance to win because it might give us a 10% better chance to win next year. that is not going to happen in this market. The sox have too much to lose to go down that road.

    It's not a fantasy league team. It's real and if the team doesn't win, or at least have a chance to win, then most fans won't watch.

    Including me. That's just how I see it, honestly, and I bet they look at it that way also. I'll admit it. I am to a degree a fair weather fan. I hope they win. I want them to put an entertaining team on the field but if they stink I've got other things to do with my life.

    And I bet if we ask ourselves sincerely, most of us would feel the same way. 

    +1

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    We keep going year after year with a devasted rotation due to injuries. The likelihood of a guy giving us 200 innings is a significant data point on any team, and especially ours if recent history is an example.

    I think they gave more credence to that issue this year. When you crunch the numbers what would McCarthy be likely to have given us? Probably less than 100 innings as past experiences indicate. And if you have to stockpile guys like that to get one 200 inning guy you have roster issues unless those guys have options. That's why guys like De LaRosa are valuable. He's probably roughly equivalent to McCarthy in projected innings and overall numbers and he is cheaper with more upside and I bet he has an option left as well ( maybe not, I'm not sure ).

    If we were serios contenders then the 200 inning lock pitcher seems worthy, but Dempster is not young.

    If we accepted the fact that we aren't going anywhere too far this year, those 200 innings could have been used by McCarthy, Morales, Tazawa, de la Rosa, and even Mortensen or Webster/Wright. True, we might get worse results for 2013, but we'd have McCarthy for 2015, and the $26M to spend elsewhere.




    Dempsters deal runs out by 2015 so that 13M per will be free'd up as it is. In fact, of the recent signees only SV is slated to still be around into 2015. It is the definition of bridge year. At this time, the outlook on our prospects is a little to foggy to start building around them. in 2014-15 we will have a good grasp of what we have in terms of future stars and as that happens we free up some serious cash to restock and reload. Personally, i love that plan. Compete in the mean time and once the cavalry arrives we can invest in top notch talent to build "the next great RS team".

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We keep going year after year with a devasted rotation due to injuries. The likelihood of a guy giving us 200 innings is a significant data point on any team, and especially ours if recent history is an example.

    I think they gave more credence to that issue this year. When you crunch the numbers what would McCarthy be likely to have given us? Probably less than 100 innings as past experiences indicate. And if you have to stockpile guys like that to get one 200 inning guy you have roster issues unless those guys have options. That's why guys like De LaRosa are valuable. He's probably roughly equivalent to McCarthy in projected innings and overall numbers and he is cheaper with more upside and I bet he has an option left as well ( maybe not, I'm not sure ).

    If we were serios contenders then the 200 inning lock pitcher seems worthy, but Dempster is not young.

    If we accepted the fact that we aren't going anywhere too far this year, those 200 innings could have been used by McCarthy, Morales, Tazawa, de la Rosa, and even Mortensen or Webster/Wright. True, we might get worse results for 2013, but we'd have McCarthy for 2015, and the $26M to spend elsewhere.

     



    How would we have $26 million to spend elsewhere if we signed McCarthy?

     



    I think he signed for $15M/2, so it might have taken $16-17M leaving about $10M for "elsewhere", but I would have been fine spending it all on McCarthy at $25M/3. Or, leaving all his innings to Morales, Tazaea, de la Rosa and maybe Mortensen. Or, to a lesser idea of combining Dempster's money with Victorino's and Drew's and getting a guy like A Sanchez for 5 years that brings us beyond 2015 (not my first choice of plans).

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Do we really want to rely on 4+ pitchers giving us 200IP and taking away from their development( RDLR,Webster) or usefulness in the BP (Tazawa), when Dempster can give us all those innings?

    Moarles could give us 140-180 of those 200 alone. I don't bring up DLR or Webster unless their development warrants it. Tazawa is not needed in the pen, but if Morales is a FT starter, I can see the need there. As it stands now, he will likely be in AAA to start the season and he deserves MLB now.

    I even think Tazawa might be better than Dempster as a starter right now.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     Personally, I just dont have a "pack it in" attitude before the season even starts

    I think Taz is better than Dempster, and morales may be as well, so to me, we get better with Taz over Dempster.

    My plan was not "packing it in". I realize all of my suggestions might not have been possible without massive overpays, but my original plan had us better in 2013 than what I perceive this team to be, but more importantly, we would have been much better off in 2015 and beyond.

     
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