A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

    Statistics experts have said that the amount of data is insufficient to even quantify a noticeable difference in a CERA on a statistically relevant basis. I don't want to beat a dead horse over and over and over but that is what this issue is. Small sample size insight. In the same token that JBJ looks like an all star outfielder right now, given the data we have to work with for him. He may well end up an all star outfielder or he may be the second coming of Eric Hinske for all we know. The math does not give us definitive data. There are statistical axioms we just cannot wish away. Yeah, I do respect the guys who can really do the math. I personally cannot do all of it but I have definitely seen the benefits of people who can really do the math in my life. There is a huge difference between the top 1% in math and the top 20% and if people are not aware of that, after repeated explanations, then what else is there to say? 

    I get into discussions sometimes with people sending me conservative email after conservative email and sometimes I politely tell them that it's ok to be conservative but do you have to spread lies on a daily basis? Is it not relevant for such emails to actually be true? If the analysis is just flat out incorrect then don't spread it. Period.

    Sometimes what appears to be true just isn't supported by the facts? For example, who doesn't respect Tek? At the same time, have we not all seen people in life who  have gotten more accolades than they deserved because of the effort they put in? Because of their personal integrity. As quality people even more than their performance as baseball players.

    I have TREMENDOUS respect for the personal integrity of Chuck Hagel. Stand up guy to the max. War hero. Honest...etc...but even I have some doubts about his ability to run a huge organization like the defense department. In the same manner, Tek was a really good catcher for several years but was he the primary reason we won 2 WS? Probably not. 

    Would I rather have Yadier Molina during those years, rather than Tek? I'm pretty sure that's a given. Or even Miguell Montero but he gets nowhere near the respect of Tek. Sometimes just being part of a winning team gets you a ton of respect. The same can be true of guys catching a good group of pitchers. And there are tons of variables even between 2 catchers on the same team. Variables beyond the control of the catchers involved. Too many to be statistically relevant without huge data samples and even those are fraught with potentially huge statistical skewing errors. Was there a starting catcher and a back up catcher situation where the starter plays against the better teams? Was the pitcher injured for even one start if it involves 8 runs given up for example as that alone can make a huge difference. Does one guy get stuck with Wakefield only because he is willing to do it? Do some pitchers just like one guy over another interpersonally? Does one catcher just get lucky and catch a pitcher when he is hot and the other guy catch him when he is slumping? There just are a lot of variables, which are often completely beyond the catchers control. 




    There is ample evidence to compare some catchers to another on the same team and make a definitive judgement about who gets more from the individual pitchers. The small sample sizes add up and do become significant when you see that year after year they almost always come to the same result: VTek got better results from the same pitchers than the other Sox catcher.

    I truly believe we do not win the WS in 2004 or 2007 with an average CERA-related catcher behind the plate (not to mention VTek at bat). Sure, we might have won with Yadier or others, but VTek was a big part of those 2 wins.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iglesias probably does start the year with the big club but we are probably looking at a .240 average or so. It may even be optimistic to project that at this point. i think over time he could well improve a lot because he has excellent intangibles in my view and his fundamentals do not look that bad. Of course, we don't know what he will do but my best guess is that he will get significant PT this year in some capacity.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/03/freeze-frame-saltalamacchia-ross-two-of-the-games-best-at-stealing-strikes.html

    Both Saltalamacchia and Ross placed in the game's top 10, each saving 10 runs per 120 games played.

    Ol' Harness would like this one.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Iglesias probably does start the year with the big club but we are probably looking at a .240 average or so. It may even be optimistic to project that at this point. i think over time he could well improve a lot because he has excellent intangibles in my view and his fundamentals do not look that bad. Of course, we don't know what he will do but my best guess is that he will get significant PT this year in some capacity.



    If he is the fielder he looks to be, I'd be OK with a .220 BA.

    I can't wait to see all the bashers come out of the woodwork the second he makes an error.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/03/freeze-frame-saltalamacchia-ross-two-of-the-games-best-at-stealing-strikes.html

    Both Saltalamacchia and Ross placed in the game's top 10, each saving 10 runs per 120 games played.

    Ol' Harness would like this one.

     



    Some posters only want to look at CS% and PBs and OBP to judge a catcher's value. So much goes into the total package of being a catcher (and some areas are hard to quantify with numbers) that choosing just a few to judge by is short-sighted.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/03/freeze-frame-saltalamacchia-ross-two-of-the-games-best-at-stealing-strikes.html

    Both Saltalamacchia and Ross placed in the game's top 10, each saving 10 runs per 120 games played.

    Ol' Harness would like this one.

     




    Good post tom...There is so much more to being a catcher that even stats cant provide, but this is just more info to help Salty's case as an improving catcher and not the "butcher" behind the plate that some seem to think he is.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2013/03/freeze-frame-saltalamacchia-ross-two-of-the-games-best-at-stealing-strikes.html

    Both Saltalamacchia and Ross placed in the game's top 10, each saving 10 runs per 120 games played.

    Ol' Harness would like this one.

     

     




    Good post tom...There is so much more to being a catcher that even stats cant provide, but this is just more info to help Salty's case as an improving catcher and not the "butcher" behind the plate that some seem to think he is.

     



    After softy watched VTek lead the league in passed balls for 2 straight years, he probably thought he was a "butcher" too.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Tonight's report from the fort...

    Stayed for all nine today, especially after a Pawtucket-fueled six-run eighth, only to have one of our scrubs from last year (Valencia?) homer in the ninth off of Doyle. We got fifteen hits, but couldn't put anything together until the eighth. Some highlights and lowlights...

    Dempster gave up three in the third on four straight loud hits, including a leadoff homer, to start the inning. He settled right down and only allowed three runs, and pitched four other very strong innings, five total. Except for that one lapse when every pitch seemed to be right down the middle, he was efficient and kept an 88 mph fastball down in the zone. Even in the bad inning he got out of trouble with minimum damage ( the inning started homer, double, double, single if I remember correctly and the final run scored because a bleeder was hit too softly to turn two.). It's refreshing to watch a guy catch the ball from his catcher and immediately be ready to pitch again, and pound the strike zone!

    Ells looks like he's got a stopwatch on him, only allowed so many seconds per at bat before he hits his weak grounder to second. I think he saw four pitches today in three at bats.

    Victorino doubled in the first and scored their first run; it's the hardest he's hit the ball all spring.

    Middlebrooks is hitting the ball very hard and seems poised for a big RBI season.

    Tazawa had a great inning, but Bard may well have punched his ticket to Pawtucket allowing three runs on a couple rockets and his usual walk and hit batsman. He also threw in a balk, the first time I've seen the lame old fake to third play this spring. Danny boy mustn't have gotten that memo.

    The fourth outfielder/fifth outfielder back up first baseman conundrum is still a mess. Sweeney started at dh today and got a hit and both Carp and Nava had hits in the six-run eighth. I was talking to a guy who claims to be buddies with Nick Cafardo and he says Carp and Sweeney stay and Nava and Bradley get farmed. It makes some sense because of the options, but not in terms of bringing the best 25 north. That would also make Overbay the odd man out. From what I've seen, the backup firstbase job is not going to be as crucial as they feared as Napoli seems very comfortable there and is making all the plays.

    Next home game is Thursday night...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, I realy enjoy your reports.  Feel you have a lot of insight on the players, more than I get from reading the Globe.  For example, the last few days you've really seemed to capture where Ells is right now at the plate, how the pitchers are doing, etc.  Thanks...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, great report.

    When I read about all the tough choices we have coming up, I keep going back to the point I made last November: we should make a 2 or 3 for 1 deal before we end up losing some decent talent to the DFA. I guess we can play the phantom DL game.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, unless we start dealing prospects, the guys competing for these last few jobs are all either on minor league contracts or will fetch very little in a trade. And a few of these guys, like Overbay, Carp, Sweeney are not likely to take a demotion to AAA, more likely to become free agents and go somewhere else. We are also faced with the dilemma of what to do for April 1st then what to do when Drew and Papi are ready. Not sure I'd want to be making those calls, but there are others getting paid to do just that. What I would do is keep the kids (Bradley and Iggy), the heck with the free-agent clock. I know Iggy is not subject to that issue. But the only way to keep them is to play them.

    What was our biggest problem last year? Pitching! You want to fix the pitching? The pitchers are already throwing great, adopting what Farrell and Nieves are preaching. The only missing link is making our up-the-middle defense spectacular, and with Pedroia and Iggy we would have the best middle infield defense in baseball, Add in an outfield of Victorino, Ellsbury and Bradley and you probably back up the best middle infield with the best outfield. Want to talk CERA, how about DERA? Defensive earned run average. Pitchers want to throw strikes when they know that balls put in play are going to be handled.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I realy enjoy your reports.  Feel you have a lot of insight on the players, more than I get from reading the Globe.  For example, the last few days you've really seemed to capture where Ells is right now at the plate, how the pitchers are doing, etc.  Thanks...



    Where Ells is at the plate is acting as if he doesn't want to be there. I'm sure it has more to do with spring training already being more than a month old and he probably just wants it to end and the meaningful games to begin, but man he's not getting it done right now.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from chetgnat. Show chetgnat's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Drew is out for 6 weeks with gas pains and bloating.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm not about to bash Drew just because his brother couldn't stay on the field, and concussions are nothing to take lightly. He was actually pretty impressive in the times I got to see him play.I just believe that Iglesias is the far superior overall talent, even if he doesn't hit more than .230.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, unless we start dealing prospects, the guys competing for these last few jobs are all either on minor league contracts or will fetch very little in a trade. And a few of these guys, like Overbay, Carp, Sweeney are not likely to take a demotion to AAA, more likely to become free agents and go somewhere else. We are also faced with the dilemma of what to do for April 1st then what to do when Drew and Papi are ready. Not sure I'd want to be making those calls, but there are others getting paid to do just that. What I would do is keep the kids (Bradley and Iggy), the heck with the free-agent clock. I know Iggy is not subject to that issue. But the only way to keep them is to play them.

    I'm not one of those guys who says trade Carp, Sweeney and Overbay for Gavin Floyd. It's probably too late now, since most teams do not have room for  2 more players on their rosters (as in a 3 for 1 deal), but we might be able to trade something like Mortensen and Aceves for a better pitcher.

    What was our biggest problem last year? Pitching! You want to fix the pitching? The pitchers are already throwing great, adopting what Farrell and Nieves are preaching. The only missing link is making our up-the-middle defense spectacular, and with Pedroia and Iggy we would have the best middle infield defense in baseball, Add in an outfield of Victorino, Ellsbury and Bradley and you probably back up the best middle infield with the best outfield. Want to talk CERA, how about DERA? Defensive earned run average. Pitchers want to throw strikes when they know that balls put in play are going to be handled.



    I'm not convinced by ST numbers that our rotation isgoing to translate into a playoff berth.

    I'm also not so sure Iggy and Bradley will be our wire to wire players this year, sadly.

    If they do, I will be more optimistic than I am right now.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    I'm not about to bash Drew just because his brother couldn't stay on the field, and concussions are nothing to take lightly. He was actually pretty impressive in the times I got to see him play.I just believe that Iglesias is the far superior overall talent, even if he doesn't hit more than .230.



    agreed. I'm not sure if .200 might be enough.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, great information! Thank you.

    If I were Abraham, I'd be looking over my shoulder.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, unless we start dealing prospects, the guys competing for these last few jobs are all either on minor league contracts or will fetch very little in a trade. And a few of these guys, like Overbay, Carp, Sweeney are not likely to take a demotion to AAA, more likely to become free agents and go somewhere else. We are also faced with the dilemma of what to do for April 1st then what to do when Drew and Papi are ready. Not sure I'd want to be making those calls, but there are others getting paid to do just that. What I would do is keep the kids (Bradley and Iggy), the heck with the free-agent clock. I know Iggy is not subject to that issue. But the only way to keep them is to play them.

    What was our biggest problem last year? Pitching! You want to fix the pitching? The pitchers are already throwing great, adopting what Farrell and Nieves are preaching. The only missing link is making our up-the-middle defense spectacular, and with Pedroia and Iggy we would have the best middle infield defense in baseball, Add in an outfield of Victorino, Ellsbury and Bradley and you probably back up the best middle infield with the best outfield. Want to talk CERA, how about DERA? Defensive earned run average. Pitchers want to throw strikes when they know that balls put in play are going to be handled.



    All valid points! Go Jidge!

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    At some point they need to send Bradley down for a couple weeks just to get that extra year of control but that doesn't mean he doesn't start the year with the Sox!

    I don't think I would take that chance though. Let's send him down for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up permanently. Let's hope he goes down and continues to play well. He could make a difference on this team and as kind of a rebuilding year, now is a good time to play the rooks.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    At some point they need to send Bradley down for a couple weeks just to get that extra year of control but that doesn't mean he doesn't start the year with the Sox!

    I don't think I would take that chance though. Let's send him down for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up permanently. Let's hope he goes down and continues to play well. He could make a difference on this team and as kind of a rebuilding year, now is a good time to play the rooks.



    Well, with Papi and Drew out, it might make sense to start him on the 25 man day one, so Gomes can DH. Then, when Papi or Drew are healthy, one can DH and Gomes goes back to LF, so JBJ can get his 2 weeks in at AAA.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The small sample of Spring Training stats has little meaning, but I was surprised that the Red Sox are dead last among the 30 MLB teams in homeruns this spring (one fewer than the Yankees):

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1363787579377&sortColumn=hr&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The small sample of Spring Training stats has little meaning, but I was surprised that the Red Sox are dead last among the 30 MLB teams in homeruns this spring (one fewer than the Yankees):

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1363787579377&sortColumn=hr&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0




    Napoli just started playing and Ortiz hasn't played at all, so no surprise there.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?




    They will not finish the season with the best ERA in the AL. They will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack. Last year they were 12th in the AL in ERA and didn't even have Lackey to make it worse. This year we have both Lackey AND Dumpster. I suspect we will be somewhere around 9th or 10th in ERA in the AL.

     
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