A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm not about to bash Drew just because his brother couldn't stay on the field, and concussions are nothing to take lightly. He was actually pretty impressive in the times I got to see him play.I just believe that Iglesias is the far superior overall talent, even if he doesn't hit more than .230.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, unless we start dealing prospects, the guys competing for these last few jobs are all either on minor league contracts or will fetch very little in a trade. And a few of these guys, like Overbay, Carp, Sweeney are not likely to take a demotion to AAA, more likely to become free agents and go somewhere else. We are also faced with the dilemma of what to do for April 1st then what to do when Drew and Papi are ready. Not sure I'd want to be making those calls, but there are others getting paid to do just that. What I would do is keep the kids (Bradley and Iggy), the heck with the free-agent clock. I know Iggy is not subject to that issue. But the only way to keep them is to play them.

    I'm not one of those guys who says trade Carp, Sweeney and Overbay for Gavin Floyd. It's probably too late now, since most teams do not have room for  2 more players on their rosters (as in a 3 for 1 deal), but we might be able to trade something like Mortensen and Aceves for a better pitcher.

    What was our biggest problem last year? Pitching! You want to fix the pitching? The pitchers are already throwing great, adopting what Farrell and Nieves are preaching. The only missing link is making our up-the-middle defense spectacular, and with Pedroia and Iggy we would have the best middle infield defense in baseball, Add in an outfield of Victorino, Ellsbury and Bradley and you probably back up the best middle infield with the best outfield. Want to talk CERA, how about DERA? Defensive earned run average. Pitchers want to throw strikes when they know that balls put in play are going to be handled.



    I'm not convinced by ST numbers that our rotation isgoing to translate into a playoff berth.

    I'm also not so sure Iggy and Bradley will be our wire to wire players this year, sadly.

    If they do, I will be more optimistic than I am right now.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    I'm not about to bash Drew just because his brother couldn't stay on the field, and concussions are nothing to take lightly. He was actually pretty impressive in the times I got to see him play.I just believe that Iglesias is the far superior overall talent, even if he doesn't hit more than .230.



    agreed. I'm not sure if .200 might be enough.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, great information! Thank you.

    If I were Abraham, I'd be looking over my shoulder.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, unless we start dealing prospects, the guys competing for these last few jobs are all either on minor league contracts or will fetch very little in a trade. And a few of these guys, like Overbay, Carp, Sweeney are not likely to take a demotion to AAA, more likely to become free agents and go somewhere else. We are also faced with the dilemma of what to do for April 1st then what to do when Drew and Papi are ready. Not sure I'd want to be making those calls, but there are others getting paid to do just that. What I would do is keep the kids (Bradley and Iggy), the heck with the free-agent clock. I know Iggy is not subject to that issue. But the only way to keep them is to play them.

    What was our biggest problem last year? Pitching! You want to fix the pitching? The pitchers are already throwing great, adopting what Farrell and Nieves are preaching. The only missing link is making our up-the-middle defense spectacular, and with Pedroia and Iggy we would have the best middle infield defense in baseball, Add in an outfield of Victorino, Ellsbury and Bradley and you probably back up the best middle infield with the best outfield. Want to talk CERA, how about DERA? Defensive earned run average. Pitchers want to throw strikes when they know that balls put in play are going to be handled.



    All valid points! Go Jidge!

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    At some point they need to send Bradley down for a couple weeks just to get that extra year of control but that doesn't mean he doesn't start the year with the Sox!

    I don't think I would take that chance though. Let's send him down for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up permanently. Let's hope he goes down and continues to play well. He could make a difference on this team and as kind of a rebuilding year, now is a good time to play the rooks.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    At some point they need to send Bradley down for a couple weeks just to get that extra year of control but that doesn't mean he doesn't start the year with the Sox!

    I don't think I would take that chance though. Let's send him down for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up permanently. Let's hope he goes down and continues to play well. He could make a difference on this team and as kind of a rebuilding year, now is a good time to play the rooks.



    Well, with Papi and Drew out, it might make sense to start him on the 25 man day one, so Gomes can DH. Then, when Papi or Drew are healthy, one can DH and Gomes goes back to LF, so JBJ can get his 2 weeks in at AAA.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The small sample of Spring Training stats has little meaning, but I was surprised that the Red Sox are dead last among the 30 MLB teams in homeruns this spring (one fewer than the Yankees):

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1363787579377&sortColumn=hr&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The small sample of Spring Training stats has little meaning, but I was surprised that the Red Sox are dead last among the 30 MLB teams in homeruns this spring (one fewer than the Yankees):

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1363787579377&sortColumn=hr&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0




    Napoli just started playing and Ortiz hasn't played at all, so no surprise there.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?




    They will not finish the season with the best ERA in the AL. They will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack. Last year they were 12th in the AL in ERA and didn't even have Lackey to make it worse. This year we have both Lackey AND Dumpster. I suspect we will be somewhere around 9th or 10th in ERA in the AL.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, I got that idea of "apathetic" from your reports; that is hard for me to understand.  What baseball player doesn't want to hit?  It's so hard for me to understand that I'm wondering if he's got some nagging minor injury, strain, bruise...???  (Have you got anyone in the clubhouse who can find out?)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ConanObrien's comment:

    pumpie and those cute 10 year old nick names.




    Growing up is hard to do...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    Jid, I got that idea of "apathetic" from your reports; that is hard for me to understand.  What baseball player doesn't want to hit?  It's so hard for me to understand that I'm wondering if he's got some nagging minor injury, strain, bruise...???  (Have you got anyone in the clubhouse who can find out?)

     



    He's moving perfectly well, running out his groundouts and preventing them from being double-plays in some cases. He's certainly not being selective, swinging at first or second pitch most at bats, and when he does swing he's just rolling the ball over to the right side. About a week ago he had two hits in a game, both line drives to left. That's the way I would prefer to see him swing as I'm not seeing any evidence of the 30 homer power he showed two years ago. I blame it on the ennui of spring training and that is your word of the day!

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?

     




    They will not finish the season with the best ERA in the AL. They will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack. Last year they were 12th in the AL in ERA and didn't even have Lackey to make it worse. This year we have both Lackey AND Dumpster. I suspect we will be somewhere around 9th or 10th in ERA in the AL.

     



    While I agree our staff will not likely be top 7 in the AL, and our rotation top 9, I do think that Lackey and Dempster can improve on these 60 games started:

     

    21 Beckett  5-11  5.23  (Team: 7-14)

    18 A Cook   4-11  5.65  (5-13)

    11 Dice-K    1-7   8.28   (4-7)

    10 D Bard   4-6    5.30   (4-6)

     

    Total Team Record in these 60 starts: 20-40.

    Even during Lackey's horrible 2011 season, the team went 14-14 after going 16-17 in 2010.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I blame it on the ennui of spring training and that is your word of the day!

     

    softy will claim it's because AGon is no longer 2-3 batters down from him in the line-up.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?

     




    They will not finish the season with the best ERA in the AL. They will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack. Last year they were 12th in the AL in ERA and didn't even have Lackey to make it worse. This year we have both Lackey AND Dumpster. I suspect we will be somewhere around 9th or 10th in ERA in the AL.

     

     



    While I agree our staff will not likely be top 7 in the AL, and our rotation top 9, I do think that Lackey and Dempster can improve on these 60 games started:

     

     

    21 Beckett  5-11  5.23  (Team: 7-14)

    18 A Cook   4-11  5.65  (5-13)

    11 Dice-K    1-7   8.28   (4-7)

    10 D Bard   4-6    5.30   (4-6)

     

    Total Team Record in these 60 starts: 20-40.

    Even during Lackey's horrible 2011 season, the team went 14-14 after going 16-17 in 2010.

     




    I assume you mean DURING HIS STARTS the team went 14-14 in 2011. You know how nearly meaningless the W-L record is for a pitcher, right? And if you look at the two best pitchers to compare Dumpster and Lackey with, Beckett and Bard, they had ERAs of 5.23/5.30. I think these are not unreasonable numbers for Dumpster and Lackey to achieve this year. You can compare the numbers for Cook and DiceK to our 2013 #6 and #7 SP later. We will be near the bottom of the pack in team ERA again this year.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?

     




    They will not finish the season with the best ERA in the AL. They will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack. Last year they were 12th in the AL in ERA and didn't even have Lackey to make it worse. This year we have both Lackey AND Dumpster. I suspect we will be somewhere around 9th or 10th in ERA in the AL.

     

     



    While I agree our staff will not likely be top 7 in the AL, and our rotation top 9, I do think that Lackey and Dempster can improve on these 60 games started:

     

     

    21 Beckett  5-11  5.23  (Team: 7-14)

    18 A Cook   4-11  5.65  (5-13)

    11 Dice-K    1-7   8.28   (4-7)

    10 D Bard   4-6    5.30   (4-6)

     

    Total Team Record in these 60 starts: 20-40.

    Even during Lackey's horrible 2011 season, the team went 14-14 after going 16-17 in 2010.

     

     




     

    I assume you mean DURING HIS STARTS the team went 14-14 in 2011. You know how nearly meaningless the W-L record is for a pitcher, right? And if you look at the two best pitchers to compare Dumpster and Lackey with, Beckett and Bard, they had ERAs of 5.23/5.30. I think these are not unreasonable numbers for Dumpster and Lackey to achieve this year. You can compare the numbers for Cook and DiceK to our 2013 #6 and #7 SP later. We will be near the bottom of the pack in team ERA again this year.



    Yes, I clearly said "the team went 20-40". And, yes, I do think those numbers matter more than the starters record, anyways. I will not argue with anyone projecting 5.30 to 5.60 from Lackey and/or Dempster, but I do feel they can do better, even much better.

    The fact is, if Lackey and Dempster give us 60 starts, they are, in a sense, replacing the 4 starters I listed.

    I do think that Morales, Tazawa, Mortensen & Webster will do better than our #6-10 starters last year, but I do agree with you: we will be near the bottom of the pack in team ERA again this year- maybe not bottom 3, but probably bottom  6 or 7.  Our starting rotation will probably be bottom 4-6.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Plus they are BEST in team ERA and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Maybe a different kind of Red Sox team?

     




    They will not finish the season with the best ERA in the AL. They will be lucky to finish in the middle of the pack. Last year they were 12th in the AL in ERA and didn't even have Lackey to make it worse. This year we have both Lackey AND Dumpster. I suspect we will be somewhere around 9th or 10th in ERA in the AL.

     

     



    While I agree our staff will not likely be top 7 in the AL, and our rotation top 9, I do think that Lackey and Dempster can improve on these 60 games started:

     

     

    21 Beckett  5-11  5.23  (Team: 7-14)

    18 A Cook   4-11  5.65  (5-13)

    11 Dice-K    1-7   8.28   (4-7)

    10 D Bard   4-6    5.30   (4-6)

     

    Total Team Record in these 60 starts: 20-40.

    Even during Lackey's horrible 2011 season, the team went 14-14 after going 16-17 in 2010.

     

     




     

    I assume you mean DURING HIS STARTS the team went 14-14 in 2011. You know how nearly meaningless the W-L record is for a pitcher, right? And if you look at the two best pitchers to compare Dumpster and Lackey with, Beckett and Bard, they had ERAs of 5.23/5.30. I think these are not unreasonable numbers for Dumpster and Lackey to achieve this year. You can compare the numbers for Cook and DiceK to our 2013 #6 and #7 SP later. We will be near the bottom of the pack in team ERA again this year.

     



    Yes, I clearly said "the team went 20-40". And, yes, I do think those numbers matter more than the starters record, anyways. I will not argue with anyone projecting 5.30 to 5.60 from Lackey and/or Dempster, but I do feel they can do better, even much better.

     

    The fact is, if Lackey and Dempster give us 60 starts, they are, in a sense, replacing the 4 starters I listed.

    I do think that Morales, Tazawa, Mortensen & Webster will do better than our #6-10 starters last year, but I do agree with you: we will be near the bottom of the pack in team ERA again this year- maybe not bottom 3, but probably bottom  6 or 7.  Our starting rotation will probably be bottom 4-6.




    Seriously, I do expect Lackey has a decent shot at an ERA around 4.50, but Dempster, I have no faith in him in the ALE at all. Lester is almost certain to improve a bit, and if Buchholtz stays healthy he can pitch very well. Your assessment of our overall pitching is reasonable and should result in a marked improvement. Its hard to fathom how some people expect more than a 13 game improvement to .500 ball or maybe slightly higher. Thats a huge improvement for a team to make, a very big jump. To expect more is unrealistic.

     

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think the Redsox starters will be top 10 this year!

     

    ....and it's because Salty's CERA will become so freaking off the charts great!

     

    ...maybe I should capitalize and embolden everything so everyone will know I'm just channeling Bill!

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Seriously though, this team has a good chance to have solid pitching this year. I've been saying that since before spring training began and I'm sticking with it. I think they have a good chance to be decent if they can stay healthy. I'm not surprised at all with Buchholz'spring performance and although Lester has been better than expected that was not out of the realm of possibility. Lackey is finally healthy for maybe the first time in 3-4 years. Dempster can be a mlb league average guy and maybe Doubront emerges to be part of a normal progression for a young starter. None of this is all that surprising.

    And I like our deep depth more than last year. De La Rosa and Webster could emerge in the 2nd half. Maybe even Ranaudo and Barnes could help a little by year end. Morales might be of significant help before we are done and the pen looks solid. Strong and deep. The key probably is the health of our starters though, as it is most years.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Whoops, didn't mean to use that ID. I'm gone again.

     

     
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