Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 3/23/2013 12:28 PM EDT
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to mef429's comment:
moon, the numbers you posted for iggy are probably best case scenario.. let me dip into hyperbole and go as far as saying career highs :)
but it's your hypothetical.. you make the rules not i.
that said, i'd go with Iggy. but like i stated, you overplayed Iggys offensive production and undervalued Drews (162 game AVG of 61XBHs. you only listed him with 40...)
I don't value what Drew did in 2008 as much as I do his last 2-3 years.
I was also going on the assumption that both would play about 150 games (reasonable) and bat at the bottom of the order, and your career Drew 162 game numbers show him getting 682 PAs. Neither would get close to that number playing 150 games batting 8th or 9th in 2013. Even if you reduce Drew's career numbers to 500 PAs it's about 45 XBHs. I feel my adjustmnent to 40 is justified, but I'd still take Iggy over Drew with 45 XBHs in 500 PAs.
I also do not think I overplayed Iggy's offense at batting .220. I'm not ever going to use an 83 PA sample size scattered over 2 seasons as a guide to project anyone's future outlook. Iggy has over 1,000 minor league PAs and a .264 BA. The .220 MLB projection is reasonable, but I could have used this as a scenario:
Let's say if Drew played 150 games and had 500 PAs this year with these numbers:
140 Hits (.280 BA) 28 DBLs, 3 TPLs, and 14 HRs
but if Iggy had played the same 150 games with 500 PAs:
90 Hits (.180 BA) 15 DBls, 3 TRPLS, and 2 HRs
and we assume that Iggy would make 100 or more plays that Drew could never make, you's still take the Drew numbers?
50 more hits
25 for extra bases
but 100+ more hits saved by his superior defense, are you really saying you take this offense vs defense scenario and go with Drew?
Also, my point was not to say that I am certain these will be the numbers, but to ask pumpsie if 2 SSs did have numbers like what I posted as a hypothetical scenario, could the ,220 hitting SS ever be justified as starting FT over a .280 hitting SS based on a massive defensive differential in plays made over 150 seasons. He seems locked into the need for offense at the SS position at any expense.
Forget the names I put on my scenario, if those numbers I listed were true, which SS would you want as your FT SS. If you answer the defensive guy, then at least I got you to see my point of view. If you answered the offensive guy, I don't agree, but at least I know it's a difference in philosophy or theory and not just a personal dislike of Iggy or a mancrush on Drew.
I would use OPS, not BA. Drew has a career OPS of .762; Iglesias, in a small sample size, is at .413 and is just at .589 in AAA ball. There is no amount of fielding prowess that can account for that kind of offensive difference. If Iggy can manage an OPS in the .700 range in the ML I can live with that, but FIRST he has to prove it at the AAA level THEN he can have a crack at the Sox lineup.
1) You do know the MLB norm in 2012 was .255/.319/.405/.724 and half the teams had a SS OPS of under .716 and 8 under .701. That's all players combined!
2) Now, look at the league SS numbers: .256/.310/.375/.685. Don't you think setting the bar at .700 for a SS that may save 80-120 hits a year on defense is a little bit unreasonable?
3) 19 MLB teams had a SS OPS or below .711, 16 teams below .691, 11 teams below .644.
4) Let's say we look at OBP instead of BA. Drew's career OBP is .328, and his last 2 year number is .313. I'll assume .320 and an Iggy OBP of .280 (.033 below his minor league OBP). That gives us this over 500 PAs:
Drew 160 times on base.
Iggy 140 times on base. (130 if his OBP is .260/ 120 if it's .240, etc...)
We're talking about Drew getting on base maybe 25-35 more times than Iggy over 500 PAs. Maybe all 25-35 of those are extra base hits more than Iggy with several more RBIs attached (and amuch higher SLG%), but there is no way I see this as overshadowing a possible 80-120 less plays made on defense over 150 games. Even if you give Drew a .330 OBP and Iggy a .250 OBP, it's only 40 more times on base.