A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    No knock on Drew Moon, but this team is better with Iggy at short. I can count 8-10 hits already this season that he has stolen. When you add up outs created and pitches that don't have to be thrown as a result, the difference more than offsets the 20-30 points on a batting average that Drew would give us over Iggy.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    No knock on Drew Moon, but this team is better with Iggy at short. I can count 8-10 hits already this season that he has stolen. When you add up outs created and pitches that don't have to be thrown as a result, the difference more than offsets the 20-30 points on a batting average that Drew would give us over Iggy.



    I have been saying this for years. I truely believe Iggy can save 60-120 hits over 160 games vs the average to worst ML SS today. If you add those hits to his offense, it might look something like this:

    100 for 500  .200  add 50 hits: .300, add 100 hits: .400

    110 for 500  .220  add 50 hits: .320, add 100 hits: .420

    125 for 500  .250  add 50: .350, add 100: .450, add 125: .500!

    Even if he just gets 20 BBs all year, his OBP coul be between .340 and .540 after adjusting for the defense.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I know Drew's defense had improved some before the freak ankle injury, but with the pin in his foot, I am not expecting great range from him when he returns. 

    Since 2003, Drew places 19th out of 24 SS in UZR/150 at -4.6.

    Since 2006, he places 17th out of 21 (19th in RngR).

     

    Iggy should be the man.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?



    i don't think so. i think he is being stretched out to be our spot starter. with Morales being hurt, Taz not being stretched out (big mistake), Wright not looking good and Mortenson a lackluster option as our 6th starter it falls onto Ace IMO. This is the right role for him and i think he will excell.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    mefBig0

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    They could use Aceves as starter depth also and he may well be needed for that but my gut tells me a trade is imminent. Sometimes it is best to move problems before the welcome is completely worn out.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Send  him to Tito. I'm pretty sure they will need some starters this year also. Along with an entirely new team. I don't care how much they spent this off season. They still stink.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm still channelling Bill! I'm saying whatever comes to mind, early and often!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?

     



    i don't think so. i think he is being stretched out to be our spot starter. with Morales being hurt, Taz not being stretched out (big mistake), Wright not looking good and Mortenson a lackluster option as our 6th starter it falls onto Ace IMO. This is the right role for him and i think he will excell.

     




    I don't think Taz should stretched.  He's excelling in the role he has now.  Leave it alone.

    We all know the stretch experiment with Bard.

    If the clock works, don't fix it.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?

     



    i don't think so. i think he is being stretched out to be our spot starter. with Morales being hurt, Taz not being stretched out (big mistake), Wright not looking good and Mortenson a lackluster option as our 6th starter it falls onto Ace IMO. This is the right role for him and i think he will excell.

     

     




     

    I don't think Taz should stretched.  He's excelling in the role he has now.  Leave it alone.

    We all know the stretch experiment with Bard.

    If the clock works, don't fix it.



    it's not the same situation as with Bard. Bard was a starter in the minors, Failed THEN was made a reliever. Skyrocketed through the minors, dominated the majors as a setup man then failed as a starter again.

    With Taz, he was signed as a starter, demolished the opposition in the minors then got hurt and needed Tommy John. Once healed, To ease him arm back into starting shape they put him in the BP where he did so well they moved him to the majors.

    Taz has never been a failure as a starter whereas Bard was. Taz was just as dominant as a starter as he is now as a reliever. He should be stretched out and put back into his rightful place. the starting rotation. the kid has the nastiest stuff of all our pitchers and should be a starter. Any other role is a waste of premium pitching talent.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Naw, I'm with Amp on this one. Don't fix it. It's fine. If we really need to badly fine but I'd try to keep him in the pen.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    My two cents on tonight's discussions after just watching the local school here, Florida Gulf Coast University, send Georgetown home with their tails between their legs...

    I would have dumped Aceves last year. He has talent, no doubt, but he is a first class knucklehead and his next explosion or implosion is just a matter of time. If Ben can get anything at all for him that would be great, but there were good reasons why the Yankees dumped him with a great record. If the clubhouse is as much of an issue as the media has implied, how can this guy survive? Maybe he's already survived his first run-in with Farrell and Farrell and the FO are satisfied that it won't happen again, but I smell a time bomb.

    The way the starters have performed, and that includes the starter depth like Webster and maybe even Aceves, I don't see any urgency to move Tazawa to the rotation. Bard is still lost and needs to go to AAA and there could always be a deal involving Bailey, so Tazawa's greatest value to this team as it's presently constituted is as a late-inning/sometimes closer role. He does have great stuff, and maybe down the line if Lester is not resigned or Barnes doesn't progress, or any of a few scenarios develop, the team can revisit his role. But for now I'm of the opinion that if it ain't broke...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Keep in mind also that Hanrahan is only signed for this year. Perhaps Tazawa slides into that role if Hanrahan is not resigned.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?

     



    i don't think so. i think he is being stretched out to be our spot starter. with Morales being hurt, Taz not being stretched out (big mistake), Wright not looking good and Mortenson a lackluster option as our 6th starter it falls onto Ace IMO. This is the right role for him and i think he will excell.

     



    I agree on Taz.

    Aceves might pitch 3-4 innings here and there in long relief. I never thought it was a good idea to convert him back to a starter. His nitch seemed to be LR/MR.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?

     



    i don't think so. i think he is being stretched out to be our spot starter. with Morales being hurt, Taz not being stretched out (big mistake), Wright not looking good and Mortenson a lackluster option as our 6th starter it falls onto Ace IMO. This is the right role for him and i think he will excell.

     

     




     

    I don't think Taz should stretched.  He's excelling in the role he has now.  Leave it alone.

    We all know the stretch experiment with Bard.

    If the clock works, don't fix it.



    But, he always was a starter, and he hasn't really proven his role is in the pen, but so far so good...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Aceves being stretched out for a trade?

     



    i don't think so. i think he is being stretched out to be our spot starter. with Morales being hurt, Taz not being stretched out (big mistake), Wright not looking good and Mortenson a lackluster option as our 6th starter it falls onto Ace IMO. This is the right role for him and i think he will excell.

     

     




     

    I don't think Taz should stretched.  He's excelling in the role he has now.  Leave it alone.

    We all know the stretch experiment with Bard.

    If the clock works, don't fix it.

     



    But, he always was a starter, and he hasn't really proven his role is in the pen, but so far so good...

     



    as of now, with a decent selection of longmen and starter depth in the minors i'm OK with Taz in the BP where he can contribute to the MLB team but maybe starting in 2014 or 15 he should be stretched out and get ready for a starting role. In 2015, We could have a homegrown rotation of RDLR, Webster, Barnes, Buch, Lester and Taz. i know that's 6 names for a 5 man roto but i'm assuming one of those names will be gone/ineffective by then.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I know Drew's defense had improved some before the freak ankle injury, but with the pin in his foot, I am not expecting great range from him when he returns. 

    Since 2003, Drew places 19th out of 24 SS in UZR/150 at -4.6.

    Since 2006, he places 17th out of 21 (19th in RngR).

     

    Iggy should be the man.




    Not until he proves he can hit the baseball. Not on my team.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I realize that Tazawa was a starter before his injury/surgery.  But really, how much history is there? Did he pitch in college in Japan?  I don't know. I'm sure that didn't pitch that many innings.

    Besides, the guy is only 5'11''/180.  I know Pedro was about the same size, but Taz certainly isn't CC Sabathia.

    Bard was terrible as a starter in the minors.  We all know the sad story after his rise to successful set up man.  After seeing this and the plateau that Joba C. hit after the Yankees tried 'stretching' him, I feel very apprehensive about tinkering with success.

    I say leave him where he is unless ABSOLUTELY necessary.  With Aceves possibly seeing the exit sign, I don't anticipate the Sox messing with anything.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    I realize that Tazawa was a starter before his injury/surgery.  But really, how much history is there? Did he pitch in college in Japan?  I don't know. I'm sure that didn't pitch that many innings.

    Besides, the guy is only 5'11''/180.  I know Pedro was about the same size, but Taz certainly isn't CC Sabathia.

    Bard was terrible as a starter in the minors.  We all know the sad story after his rise to successful set up man.  After seeing this and the plateau that Joba C. hit after the Yankees tried 'stretching' him, I feel very apprehensive about tinkering with success.

    I say leave him where he is unless ABSOLUTELY necessary.  With Aceves possibly seeing the exit sign, I don't anticipate the Sox messing with anything.



    Taz has 208 IP in the minors. more than half of which came from starting in 2009. during that year had these numbers in 20 starts: 2.55ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and a 3.48 K/BB ratio in 109.1 IP Then he got hurt.

    that is not a failure like bard. Who (for context) put up these numbers in 22 starts in the minors: 7.08 ERA, 2.053 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 75 IP.

    Tazawa didn't pitch in the japanese league at all. He pitched for a series of indepentant leagues where he caught the eyes of Sox scouts. there was a great article posted here about the scouting adventures of junichi tazawa... i'll see if i can dig it up. But to answer your question, yes he has a history of starting, he started and relieved in Japan but did more starting than anything. He was signed to be a starter and did a damn fine job until he had TJS. While he can give the sox immediate support in 2013 by being a part of the BP i think it would be a smart long term move to either let him start in AAA or stretch him out in the bigs as a long-man/spot starter.

    I'm just blown away every time i see this kid pitch, he should have a chance to do damage for 6 innings a game, not 1.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    I realize that Tazawa was a starter before his injury/surgery.  But really, how much history is there? Did he pitch in college in Japan?  I don't know. I'm sure that didn't pitch that many innings.

    Besides, the guy is only 5'11''/180.  I know Pedro was about the same size, but Taz certainly isn't CC Sabathia.

    Bard was terrible as a starter in the minors.  We all know the sad story after his rise to successful set up man.  After seeing this and the plateau that Joba C. hit after the Yankees tried 'stretching' him, I feel very apprehensive about tinkering with success.

    I say leave him where he is unless ABSOLUTELY necessary.  With Aceves possibly seeing the exit sign, I don't anticipate the Sox messing with anything.

     



    Taz has 208 IP in the minors. more than half of which came from starting in 2009. during that year had these numbers in 20 starts: 2.55ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and a 3.48 K/BB ratio in 109.1 IP Then he got hurt.

     

    that is not a failure like bard. Who (for context) put up these numbers in 22 starts in the minors: 7.08 ERA, 2.053 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 75 IP.

    Tazawa didn't pitch in the japanese league at all. He pitched for a series of indepentant leagues where he caught the eyes of Sox scouts. there was a great article posted here about the scouting adventures of junichi tazawa... i'll see if i can dig it up. But to answer your question, yes he has a history of starting, he started and relieved in Japan but did more starting than anything. He was signed to be a starter and did a damn fine job until he had TJS. While he can give the sox immediate support in 2013 by being a part of the BP i think it would be a smart long term move to either let him start in AAA or stretch him out in the bigs as a long-man/spot starter.

    I'm just blown away every time i see this kid pitch, he should have a chance to do damage for 6 innings a game, not 1.




    Not being a stat guy, it was a big deal for me to look up his innings on fangraph....  In 2009, he threw 134.2 innings.  I'm impressed with that year and agree with you about his stuff.  No doubt he's a very talented kid.  I hope the innings weren't responsible for his arm injury.

    But, his size still bothers me somewhat. Guys nowadays are monsters.  They have to be because of the strenuous schedule etc.  Would he last?  Re-injure?

    Perhaps the Sox will do him a favor to prolong his career by not rushing him into a starter position.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    I realize that Tazawa was a starter before his injury/surgery.  But really, how much history is there? Did he pitch in college in Japan?  I don't know. I'm sure that didn't pitch that many innings.

    Besides, the guy is only 5'11''/180.  I know Pedro was about the same size, but Taz certainly isn't CC Sabathia.

    Bard was terrible as a starter in the minors.  We all know the sad story after his rise to successful set up man.  After seeing this and the plateau that Joba C. hit after the Yankees tried 'stretching' him, I feel very apprehensive about tinkering with success.

    I say leave him where he is unless ABSOLUTELY necessary.  With Aceves possibly seeing the exit sign, I don't anticipate the Sox messing with anything.

     



    Taz has 208 IP in the minors. more than half of which came from starting in 2009. during that year had these numbers in 20 starts: 2.55ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and a 3.48 K/BB ratio in 109.1 IP Then he got hurt.

     

    that is not a failure like bard. Who (for context) put up these numbers in 22 starts in the minors: 7.08 ERA, 2.053 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 75 IP.

    Tazawa didn't pitch in the japanese league at all. He pitched for a series of indepentant leagues where he caught the eyes of Sox scouts. there was a great article posted here about the scouting adventures of junichi tazawa... i'll see if i can dig it up. But to answer your question, yes he has a history of starting, he started and relieved in Japan but did more starting than anything. He was signed to be a starter and did a damn fine job until he had TJS. While he can give the sox immediate support in 2013 by being a part of the BP i think it would be a smart long term move to either let him start in AAA or stretch him out in the bigs as a long-man/spot starter.

    I'm just blown away every time i see this kid pitch, he should have a chance to do damage for 6 innings a game, not 1.

     




     

    Not being a stat guy, it was a big deal for me to look up his innings on fangraph....  In 2009, he threw 134.2 innings.  I'm impressed with that year and agree with you about his stuff.  No doubt he's a very talented kid.  I hope the innings weren't responsible for his arm injury.

    But, his size still bothers me somewhat. Guys nowadays are monsters.  They have to be because of the strenuous schedule etc.  Would he last?  Re-injure?

    Perhaps the Sox will do him a favor to prolong his career by not rushing him into a starter position.



    he had surgury in 2010 he is closing in on 3 years post-op. i think the window for rushing him has closed a while ago.. but you have some good points about the potential cause of his injury and his size. At the end of the day it's the FO making the decisions and i have no doubt Taz will excell in any role he is put into.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I know Drew's defense had improved some before the freak ankle injury, but with the pin in his foot, I am not expecting great range from him when he returns. 

    Since 2003, Drew places 19th out of 24 SS in UZR/150 at -4.6.

    Since 2006, he places 17th out of 21 (19th in RngR).

     

    Iggy should be the man.

     




    Not until he proves he can hit the baseball. Not on my team.

     



    Follow me just for argument's sake:

    Let's say if Drew played 150 games and had 500 PAs this year with these numbers:

    140 Hits  (.280 BA) 25 DBLs, 3 TPLs,  and 12 HRs

    but if Iggy had played the same 150 games with 500 PAs:

    110 Hits (.220 BA) 17 DBls, 5 TRPLS, and 3 HRs

    and we assume that Iggy would make 80 or more plays that Drew could never make, you's still take the Drew numbers?

    40 more hits

    15 for extra bases

    but 80+ more hits saved by his superior defense, are you really saying you take this offense vs defense scenario and go with Drew?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    moon, the numbers you posted for iggy are probably best case scenario.. let me dip into hyperbole and go as far as saying career highs :)

    but it's your hypothetical.. you make the rules not i.

    that said, i'd go with Iggy. but like i stated, you overplayed Iggys offensive production and undervalued Drews (162 game AVG of 61XBHs. you only listed him with 40...)

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I know Drew's defense had improved some before the freak ankle injury, but with the pin in his foot, I am not expecting great range from him when he returns. 

    Since 2003, Drew places 19th out of 24 SS in UZR/150 at -4.6.

    Since 2006, he places 17th out of 21 (19th in RngR).

    Iggy should be the man.

    Not until he proves he can hit the baseball. Not on my team.

    Follow me just for argument's sake:

    Let's say if Drew played 150 games and had 500 PAs this year with these numbers:

    140 Hits  (.280 BA) 25 DBLs, 3 TPLs,  and 12 HRs

    but if Iggy had played the same 150 games with 500 PAs:

    110 Hits (.220 BA) 17 DBls, 5 TRPLS, and 3 HRs

    and we assume that Iggy would make 80 or more plays that Drew could never make, you's still take the Drew numbers?

    40 more hits

    15 for extra bases

    but 80+ more hits saved by his superior defense, are you really saying you take this offense vs defense scenario and go with Drew?




    Even though I've never been a huge Iggy fan, the Drew signing was absolutely rediculous!  Very stilted thinking in this FO!!!!!  Iggy would have been the far better choice!  I agree with your numbers Moon, and I hae begun to come around on the kid.  My only concern with Iggy at this point, is that with so many potential HOLES in this lineup, with respect to hitting for average, Iggy could be a constant rally killer???  Could get maddening????

    Still, I would have gone with Iggy over Drew every day of the week.  I am also far beyond tired of the hurt Drews.  Fair?  Not close!  I'm still done with the whole clan.  Long ago....

     

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