A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sure. Lets see how he does for his next 250 PAs in Pawtucket. If he has an OPS close to .700 then we bring him up. If not, he remains in AAA ball until he can prove he can hit the baseball. It takes at least 250 PAs IMO to produce a significant sample size. So far he has not hit that well for that long, so his time has not yet come.

     

    Well, I'm glad you are not holding him to his career AAA OPS number. I'm hoping you at least view him as a.624 AAA now rather than hold 2011 against a player in his early years of growth.

    I still disagree on the needs to hit .700 in AAA for a SS to get a shot at the bigs. I'd at least look more at OBP than OPS.

    I'm curious why you still haven't answered my question on the hypothetical scenario I presented. I'm OK with posters not believing a great ranged SS not making 100+ more plays than the bottom SSs, but I was just wondering how you felt if it were true that Iggy could make 100 more plays on D than Drew, would the .320 to .260 OBP and 40 more XBHs by Drew make up for that? (Enough for you to want to have Drew and not Iggy as your FT SS) I've answered every point and question you have made, please respond to this one question.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    John Garland on the market........ 




    would he accept a MiL contract for depth?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I understand your no range arguement for Drew, but heres the thing...Like his brother JD, Stephen doesnt have great range, but hes a very smart ballplayer that positions himself almost perfectly knowing what pitch is being thrown and who the batter is. Just looking at his range in numbers certainly doesnt tell the whole story on Stephen Drew IMO...Just another one of those cases, like we argued with salty, that numbers sometimes lie a bit.

    Now Im certainly not saying Drew is as good as Iggy defensively, but hes not as bad as the numbers suggest is all.

    RF/9, range metrics, UZR/15o all reflect poor, good or great positioning. If Drew was positioned very very well, he'd be making more plays than he has been, or he is so slow or poor on the break reaction time, that even great positioning still makes him a poor fielder. He may make up a few of those 80-100 plays that Iggy gets to that he could not reach by having better experience, making less errors on sure plays, or other variables, but I seriously doubt it could come close to making up for even a 60-80 play differential.

    Sidenote: I made this same argument last year with Iggy vs Aviles, and as the season started I was going to keep track of every play I thought Iggy would have made that Mike did not make. After about 25 games, I think I was up to 2 or 3 plays. I realized I had misjudged Mike's range. I may have misjudged Drew's as well, but his numbers have not been good, although they were improving before the injury that involved placing a pin in his ankle, where I believe it remains today. I'm hoping I am wrong again on projecting poor range by our SSs (Aviles and now Drew). We'll probably find out, because the moment Drew is healthy, Iggy will be sent down no matter what his OBP is.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I understand your no range arguement for Drew, but heres the thing...Like his brother JD, Stephen doesnt have great range, but hes a very smart ballplayer that positions himself almost perfectly knowing what pitch is being thrown and who the batter is. Just looking at his range in numbers certainly doesnt tell the whole story on Stephen Drew IMO...Just another one of those cases, like we argued with salty, that numbers sometimes lie a bit.

    Now Im certainly not saying Drew is as good as Iggy defensively, but hes not as bad as the numbers suggest is all.

    RF/9, range metrics, UZR/15o all reflect poor, good or great positioning. If Drew was positioned very very well, he'd be making more plays than he has been, or he is so slow or poor on the break reaction time, that even great positioning still makes him a poor fielder. He may make up a few of those 80-100 plays that Iggy gets to that he could not reach by having better experience, making less errors on sure plays, or other variables, but I seriously doubt it could come close to making up for even a 60-80 play differential.

    Sidenote: I made this same argument last year with Iggy vs Aviles, and as the season started I was going to keep track of every play I thought Iggy would have made that Mike did not make. After about 25 games, I think I was up to 2 or 3 plays. I realized I had misjudged Mike's range. I may have misjudged Drew's as well, but his numbers have not been good, although they were improving before the injury that involved placing a pin in his ankle, where I believe it remains today. I'm hoping I am wrong again on projecting poor range by our SSs (Aviles and now Drew). We'll probably find out, because the moment Drew is healthy, Iggy will be sent down no matter what his OBP is.




    Im not saying Drew is a great fielder, not at all. Just think the numbers dont see what the eyes do.

    I agree with you that Iggy will be sent down when Drew is ready. The only way hes not is if he is hitting the ball while hes up. Even then, he will have to be hitting pretty good for that to happen.

    Im pulling for the kid this year that he can put together enough offense to warrant the starting job. At this point theyre not going to give it to him paying Drew 9.5M, unless he hits .300

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I understand your no range arguement for Drew, but heres the thing...Like his brother JD, Stephen doesnt have great range, but hes a very smart ballplayer that positions himself almost perfectly knowing what pitch is being thrown and who the batter is. Just looking at his range in numbers certainly doesnt tell the whole story on Stephen Drew IMO...Just another one of those cases, like we argued with salty, that numbers sometimes lie a bit.

    Now Im certainly not saying Drew is as good as Iggy defensively, but hes not as bad as the numbers suggest is all.

    RF/9, range metrics, UZR/15o all reflect poor, good or great positioning. If Drew was positioned very very well, he'd be making more plays than he has been, or he is so slow or poor on the break reaction time, that even great positioning still makes him a poor fielder. He may make up a few of those 80-100 plays that Iggy gets to that he could not reach by having better experience, making less errors on sure plays, or other variables, but I seriously doubt it could come close to making up for even a 60-80 play differential.

    Sidenote: I made this same argument last year with Iggy vs Aviles, and as the season started I was going to keep track of every play I thought Iggy would have made that Mike did not make. After about 25 games, I think I was up to 2 or 3 plays. I realized I had misjudged Mike's range. I may have misjudged Drew's as well, but his numbers have not been good, although they were improving before the injury that involved placing a pin in his ankle, where I believe it remains today. I'm hoping I am wrong again on projecting poor range by our SSs (Aviles and now Drew). We'll probably find out, because the moment Drew is healthy, Iggy will be sent down no matter what his OBP is.

     




    Im not saying Drew is a great fielder, not at all. Just think the numbers dont see what the eyes do.

     

    I agree with you that Iggy will be sent down when Drew is ready. The only way hes not is if he is hitting the ball while hes up. Even then, he will have to be hitting pretty good for that to happen.

    Im pulling for the kid this year that he can put together enough offense to warrant the starting job. At this point theyre not going to give it to him paying Drew 9.5M, unless he hits .300




    With Drew on a one year deal he'd be pretty easy to deal during the season if he and Iglesias are both playing well.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I understand your no range arguement for Drew, but heres the thing...Like his brother JD, Stephen doesnt have great range, but hes a very smart ballplayer that positions himself almost perfectly knowing what pitch is being thrown and who the batter is. Just looking at his range in numbers certainly doesnt tell the whole story on Stephen Drew IMO...Just another one of those cases, like we argued with salty, that numbers sometimes lie a bit.

    Now Im certainly not saying Drew is as good as Iggy defensively, but hes not as bad as the numbers suggest is all.

    RF/9, range metrics, UZR/15o all reflect poor, good or great positioning. If Drew was positioned very very well, he'd be making more plays than he has been, or he is so slow or poor on the break reaction time, that even great positioning still makes him a poor fielder. He may make up a few of those 80-100 plays that Iggy gets to that he could not reach by having better experience, making less errors on sure plays, or other variables, but I seriously doubt it could come close to making up for even a 60-80 play differential.

    Sidenote: I made this same argument last year with Iggy vs Aviles, and as the season started I was going to keep track of every play I thought Iggy would have made that Mike did not make. After about 25 games, I think I was up to 2 or 3 plays. I realized I had misjudged Mike's range. I may have misjudged Drew's as well, but his numbers have not been good, although they were improving before the injury that involved placing a pin in his ankle, where I believe it remains today. I'm hoping I am wrong again on projecting poor range by our SSs (Aviles and now Drew). We'll probably find out, because the moment Drew is healthy, Iggy will be sent down no matter what his OBP is.

     




    Im not saying Drew is a great fielder, not at all. Just think the numbers dont see what the eyes do.

     

    I agree with you that Iggy will be sent down when Drew is ready. The only way hes not is if he is hitting the ball while hes up. Even then, he will have to be hitting pretty good for that to happen.

    Im pulling for the kid this year that he can put together enough offense to warrant the starting job. At this point theyre not going to give it to him paying Drew 9.5M, unless he hits .300

     




    With Drew on a one year deal he'd be pretty easy to deal during the season if he and Iglesias are both playing well.

     




    If Iggy is playing good, then I can see a deadline deal and the Sox even eating some $$ to get a better return.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    With Drew on a one year deal he'd be pretty easy to deal during the season if he and Iglesias are both playing well.

    Maybe. If he's healthy and wanted. If we pay part of his deal.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Sure. Lets see how he does for his next 250 PAs in Pawtucket. If he has an OPS close to .700 then we bring him up. If not, he remains in AAA ball until he can prove he can hit the baseball. It takes at least 250 PAs IMO to produce a significant sample size. So far he has not hit that well for that long, so his time has not yet come.

     

    Well, I'm glad you are not holding him to his career AAA OPS number. I'm hoping you at least view him as a.624 AAA now rather than hold 2011 against a player in his early years of growth.

    I still disagree on the needs to hit .700 in AAA for a SS to get a shot at the bigs. I'd at least look more at OBP than OPS.

    I'm curious why you still haven't answered my question on the hypothetical scenario I presented. I'm OK with posters not believing a great ranged SS not making 100+ more plays than the bottom SSs, but I was just wondering how you felt if it were true that Iggy could make 100 more plays on D than Drew, would the .320 to .260 OBP and 40 more XBHs by Drew make up for that? (Enough for you to want to have Drew and not Iggy as your FT SS) I've answered every point and question you have made, please respond to this one question.




    First, I did not say that he had to have an OPS of .700; I said he has to be close to that. You cannot assign a specific number as the OPS that a player must achieve before being promoted. Around .700 is what I would like to see before I want to see him in the ML. As for your hypothetical question (and it is simply conjecture), if I understand you correctly, about IF Iggy makes at least 100 more plays than Drew could make is the reduction of OBP and XBHs tolerable, in a word, no. Why? Because if you are going to use a single metric to measure a player's offensive contribution I believe that is either OPS or OPS+, not OBP. So if you rephrase your question in those terms its more relevant. I would take Iggy if Drew has an OPS of .760 and Iggy has an OPS of .700, given that Iggy saves more runs, but not if Iggy has an OPS of just .624. We simply cannot afford a black hole like that in the lineup. I think more than about .070 OPS difference between our current SS (Drew) and our minor league SS earns Iggy a ticket back to Pawtucket. The FO got this one right: they secured a SS that is decent defensively but who can also contribute offensively a bit rather than someone whose talents are too far weighted in one direction.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Sure. Lets see how he does for his next 250 PAs in Pawtucket. If he has an OPS close to .700 then we bring him up. If not, he remains in AAA ball until he can prove he can hit the baseball. It takes at least 250 PAs IMO to produce a significant sample size. So far he has not hit that well for that long, so his time has not yet come.

     

    Well, I'm glad you are not holding him to his career AAA OPS number. I'm hoping you at least view him as a.624 AAA now rather than hold 2011 against a player in his early years of growth.

    I still disagree on the needs to hit .700 in AAA for a SS to get a shot at the bigs. I'd at least look more at OBP than OPS.

    I'm curious why you still haven't answered my question on the hypothetical scenario I presented. I'm OK with posters not believing a great ranged SS not making 100+ more plays than the bottom SSs, but I was just wondering how you felt if it were true that Iggy could make 100 more plays on D than Drew, would the .320 to .260 OBP and 40 more XBHs by Drew make up for that? (Enough for you to want to have Drew and not Iggy as your FT SS) I've answered every point and question you have made, please respond to this one question.

     




    First, I did not say that he had to have an OPS of .700; I said he has to be close to that. You cannot assign a specific number as the OPS that a player must achieve before being promoted. Around .700 is what I would like to see before I want to see him in the ML. As for your hypothetical question (and it is simply conjecture), if I understand you correctly, about IF Iggy makes at least 100 more plays than Drew could make is the reduction of OBP and XBHs tolerable, in a word, no. Why? Because if you are going to use a single metric to measure a player's offensive contribution I believe that is either OPS or OPS+, not OBP. So if you rephrase your question in those terms its more relevant. I would take Iggy if Drew has an OPS of .760 and Iggy has an OPS of .700, given that Iggy saves more runs, but not if Iggy has an OPS of just .624. We simply cannot afford a black hole like that in the lineup. I think more than about .070 OPS difference between our current SS (Drew) and our minor league SS earns Iggy a ticket back to Pawtucket. The FO got this one right: they secured a SS that is decent defensively but who can also contribute offensively a bit rather than someone whose talents are too far weighted in one direction.

     



    Thanks for the answer. Yes- total conjecture.

    BTW, if you added 100 singles to Iggy's .600 OPS, he'd have a higher OPS than Drew at even .799.

    Assuming 500 PAs, adding 100 singles to Iggy's numbers would raise his OBP, and hence his OPS by 200 points alone. His SLG% would also raise as a result of 100 singles rather than 100 outs.

    More likely, the differential might be 80 plays made, and the OPS differential might be .150 (.770 to .620), still, adding 80 singles to Iggy's offense would allow him to pass Drew's OPS by a long shot-- not even close.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from baddad. Show baddad's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from baddad. Show baddad's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    obviously i meant players not platers

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to baddad's comment:

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop




    Of course! If we had a devastating offense we could afford a black hole. I don't think we will have that kind of offense this year.I also don't think it really matters who plays SS if our pitching does not significantly improve.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Well they do walk up to the plate to be batters, and in order to be batters they have to be players, so I understood platers as opposed to glovers.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to baddad's comment:

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop



    To me it doesn't matter. If Iggy saves more runs on defense than he loses on offfense ov er Drew, then go with Iggy.

    Great defense (including pitching) keeps you in more games because the scores are lower. I know Iggy will kill some drives. More than Drew. But, to me, he will stop many opponent's rallies and be a net plus over Drew, even if he ends up with a .600 OPS.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to baddad's comment:

     

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop

     




    Of course! If we had a devastating offense we could afford a black hole. I don't think we will have that kind of offense this year.I also don't think it really matters who plays SS if our pitching does not significantly improve.

     



    Take it one step further, getting a SS that may save 80+ hits over a season would significantly improve our pitching numbers. They go deeper into the game with lower pitch counts, save the pen, have more confidence, and keep us in more of those lower scoring games that we always seem to lose more than  we win.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.



    Although I do not agree that Iggy needs to hit to become our FT SS, I do think he is capable of hitting .275+ someday and maybe having a .320+ OBP. It might take a while, but his range and defensive skills will more than make-up for any lack of offense.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.



    +1!


    It was nice to see yet another good game from Napoli! I really hope he gets his $13M this year because he is looking very good right now. Napoli and WMB may be the power bats we need until Ortiz is back on line. Gotta love what the starters have done collectively as well.


    Overall, very excited for the season to start! Bring on the Yankees!

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.

     



    +1!

     


    It was nice to see yet another good game from Napoli! I really hope he gets his $13M this year because he is looking very good right now. Napoli and WMB may be the power bats we need until Ortiz is back on line. Gotta love what the starters have done collectively as well.


    Overall, very excited for the season to start! Bring on the Yankees!



    Naps could be a big part of any 2013 surprise. I've liked the way he looks in the field compared to what I was expecting.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    What a buzz Bradley is creating.

     

    I love it!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What a buzz Bradley is creating.

     

    I love it!



    I agree with you moonslav59.   :)

    Imagine the pressure Ellsbury is feeling.  He needs to put up big numbers in his free agent year and he fully knows that Bradley can replace him in CF.  

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What a buzz Bradley is creating.

     

    I love it!

     



    I agree with you moonslav59.   :)

     

    Imagine the pressure Ellsbury is feeling.  He needs to put up big numbers in his free agent year and he fully knows that Bradley can replace him in CF.  

     




    And all the while Scott Boras sits back and counts his money.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Still, all reports say there is 0% chance he makes the team. 

    3 (more than capable) CF ers playing the entire OF! We'd have the best defensive OF in baseball!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Emp9, is that you Ted? If you read Cafardo today he seems certain that Bradley WILL break camp with the team. That's a complete departure from what he has been writing all spring.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think holding JBJ in AAA until 4/12 is the smart move, but I would understand if they do decide to bring the 22 yr old to NY with them.

    As far as Iggy goes. I will stick with my opinion that he will hit enogh to warrant a starting SS job in MLB. He looks much more confident this year at the plate. Very encouraging.

     
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