Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 3/24/2013 1:23 PM EDT
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
Thanks for the answer. Yes- total conjecture.
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Sure. Lets see how he does for his next 250 PAs in Pawtucket. If he has an OPS close to .700 then we bring him up. If not, he remains in AAA ball until he can prove he can hit the baseball. It takes at least 250 PAs IMO to produce a significant sample size. So far he has not hit that well for that long, so his time has not yet come.
Well, I'm glad you are not holding him to his career AAA OPS number. I'm hoping you at least view him as a.624 AAA now rather than hold 2011 against a player in his early years of growth.
I still disagree on the needs to hit .700 in AAA for a SS to get a shot at the bigs. I'd at least look more at OBP than OPS.
I'm curious why you still haven't answered my question on the hypothetical scenario I presented. I'm OK with posters not believing a great ranged SS not making 100+ more plays than the bottom SSs, but I was just wondering how you felt if it were true that Iggy could make 100 more plays on D than Drew, would the .320 to .260 OBP and 40 more XBHs by Drew make up for that? (Enough for you to want to have Drew and not Iggy as your FT SS) I've answered every point and question you have made, please respond to this one question.
First, I did not say that he had to have an OPS of .700; I said he has to be close to that. You cannot assign a specific number as the OPS that a player must achieve before being promoted. Around .700 is what I would like to see before I want to see him in the ML. As for your hypothetical question (and it is simply conjecture), if I understand you correctly, about IF Iggy makes at least 100 more plays than Drew could make is the reduction of OBP and XBHs tolerable, in a word, no. Why? Because if you are going to use a single metric to measure a player's offensive contribution I believe that is either OPS or OPS+, not OBP. So if you rephrase your question in those terms its more relevant. I would take Iggy if Drew has an OPS of .760 and Iggy has an OPS of .700, given that Iggy saves more runs, but not if Iggy has an OPS of just .624. We simply cannot afford a black hole like that in the lineup. I think more than about .070 OPS difference between our current SS (Drew) and our minor league SS earns Iggy a ticket back to Pawtucket. The FO got this one right: they secured a SS that is decent defensively but who can also contribute offensively a bit rather than someone whose talents are too far weighted in one direction.
BTW, if you added 100 singles to Iggy's .600 OPS, he'd have a higher OPS than Drew at even .799.
Assuming 500 PAs, adding 100 singles to Iggy's numbers would raise his OBP, and hence his OPS by 200 points alone. His SLG% would also raise as a result of 100 singles rather than 100 outs.
More likely, the differential might be 80 plays made, and the OPS differential might be .150 (.770 to .620), still, adding 80 singles to Iggy's offense would allow him to pass Drew's OPS by a long shot-- not even close.