A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to baddad's comment:

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop



    To me it doesn't matter. If Iggy saves more runs on defense than he loses on offfense ov er Drew, then go with Iggy.

    Great defense (including pitching) keeps you in more games because the scores are lower. I know Iggy will kill some drives. More than Drew. But, to me, he will stop many opponent's rallies and be a net plus over Drew, even if he ends up with a .600 OPS.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to baddad's comment:

     

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop

     




    Of course! If we had a devastating offense we could afford a black hole. I don't think we will have that kind of offense this year.I also don't think it really matters who plays SS if our pitching does not significantly improve.

     



    Take it one step further, getting a SS that may save 80+ hits over a season would significantly improve our pitching numbers. They go deeper into the game with lower pitch counts, save the pen, have more confidence, and keep us in more of those lower scoring games that we always seem to lose more than  we win.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.



    Although I do not agree that Iggy needs to hit to become our FT SS, I do think he is capable of hitting .275+ someday and maybe having a .320+ OBP. It might take a while, but his range and defensive skills will more than make-up for any lack of offense.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.



    +1!


    It was nice to see yet another good game from Napoli! I really hope he gets his $13M this year because he is looking very good right now. Napoli and WMB may be the power bats we need until Ortiz is back on line. Gotta love what the starters have done collectively as well.


    Overall, very excited for the season to start! Bring on the Yankees!

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Iglesias had a double and 2 singles today and is now hitting .273 this spring.  He is making his case in every way.

     



    +1!

     


    It was nice to see yet another good game from Napoli! I really hope he gets his $13M this year because he is looking very good right now. Napoli and WMB may be the power bats we need until Ortiz is back on line. Gotta love what the starters have done collectively as well.


    Overall, very excited for the season to start! Bring on the Yankees!



    Naps could be a big part of any 2013 surprise. I've liked the way he looks in the field compared to what I was expecting.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    What a buzz Bradley is creating.

     

    I love it!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What a buzz Bradley is creating.

     

    I love it!



    I agree with you moonslav59.   :)

    Imagine the pressure Ellsbury is feeling.  He needs to put up big numbers in his free agent year and he fully knows that Bradley can replace him in CF.  

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What a buzz Bradley is creating.

     

    I love it!

     



    I agree with you moonslav59.   :)

     

    Imagine the pressure Ellsbury is feeling.  He needs to put up big numbers in his free agent year and he fully knows that Bradley can replace him in CF.  

     




    And all the while Scott Boras sits back and counts his money.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Still, all reports say there is 0% chance he makes the team. 

    3 (more than capable) CF ers playing the entire OF! We'd have the best defensive OF in baseball!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Emp9, is that you Ted? If you read Cafardo today he seems certain that Bradley WILL break camp with the team. That's a complete departure from what he has been writing all spring.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think holding JBJ in AAA until 4/12 is the smart move, but I would understand if they do decide to bring the 22 yr old to NY with them.

    As far as Iggy goes. I will stick with my opinion that he will hit enogh to warrant a starting SS job in MLB. He looks much more confident this year at the plate. Very encouraging.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Emp9, is that you Ted? If you read Cafardo today he seems certain that Bradley WILL break camp with the team. That's a complete departure from what he has been writing all spring.



    I just did. Thanx! So someone got the reference. Yeah this tough decision is quickly turning into a no-brainer. There's zero harm done if flops. Only question left for me is, what if he doesn't? 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Emp9, is that you Ted? If you read Cafardo today he seems certain that Bradley WILL break camp with the team. That's a complete departure from what he has been writing all spring.

     



    I just did. Thanx! So someone got the reference. Yeah this tough decision is quickly turning into a no-brainer. There's zero harm done if flops. Only question left for me is, what if he doesn't? 

     




    It would be incredibly stupid not to take some sort of action to insure that extra year of team control, either  now or later in the year. Once that is in the books Bradley should be in the majors.

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to baddad's comment:

     

    i would think that the quetion depends on the cast and makeup of the platers srrounding the shortstop    if the rest of the team has good hitters ...you can get away with a weak hitting shortstop

     




    Of course! If we had a devastating offense we could afford a black hole. I don't think we will have that kind of offense this year.I also don't think it really matters who plays SS if our pitching does not significantly improve.

     

     



    Take it one step further, getting a SS that may save 80+ hits over a season would significantly improve our pitching numbers. They go deeper into the game with lower pitch counts, save the pen, have more confidence, and keep us in more of those lower scoring games that we always seem to lose more than  we win.

     




    This is the essence of our difference of opinion about Iglesias. I say SHOW ME and you are willing to give him a chance without proof that Iggy can hit well enough to compensate for his however many runs he may save on defense. I think 250 PAs at the AAA level this year should give us enough evidence of where he is at with the bat. There is no real way to calculate how many plays he will make that Drew will not, nor what OPS he must reach to make his overall presence on the team worthwhile. I respect your opinion on this, but I just disagree. I think he has to PROVE himself before he is given a ticket to Boston.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Emp9, is that you Ted? If you read Cafardo today he seems certain that Bradley WILL break camp with the team. That's a complete departure from what he has been writing all spring.

     



    I just did. Thanx! So someone got the reference. Yeah this tough decision is quickly turning into a no-brainer. There's zero harm done if flops. Only question left for me is, what if he doesn't? 

     



    BTW: are you the Ted from TalkSox? The King of TalkSox is also named Ted. Just curious.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    No. Its a nod to Teddy Ballgame. That and an ex-Microsoft EMPloyee who set-up ecstasy testing locations across the US so kids knew they had the real thing instead of the fake stuff kids were dying of. It's just an obscure double-entendre. Sorry to disappoint. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    This is the essence of our difference of opinion about Iglesias. I say SHOW ME and you are willing to give him a chance without proof that Iggy can hit well enough to compensate for his however many runs he may save on defense. I think 250 PAs at the AAA level this year should give us enough evidence of where he is at with the bat. There is no real way to calculate how many plays he will make that Drew will not, nor what OPS he must reach to make his overall presence on the team worthwhile. I respect your opinion on this, but I just disagree. I think he has to PROVE himself before he is given a ticket to Boston

    I'm not projecting a near .700 OPS. I'd be happy with .600.

    Fielding is much easier to project from the minors to majors.

    Everyone knos he is a superb fielder.

    Almost everyone agrees that Drew has limitations.

    Some feel the pin in his ankle may further those limitations.

    Evidence clearly shows the best SSs make 80-130 more plays than the poor ones.

    I do not think it is a leap of faith to expect 60-80 more plays from Iggy over Drew.

    Projecting the offense is harder, but my position maintains that if Iggy can make 60-80 more plays on defense, he doesn't need to have an OPS over .600. 

    Why do you need him to prove his offense, but don't trust the defense that he has shown over several years already?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    This is the essence of our difference of opinion about Iglesias. I say SHOW ME and you are willing to give him a chance without proof that Iggy can hit well enough to compensate for his however many runs he may save on defense. I think 250 PAs at the AAA level this year should give us enough evidence of where he is at with the bat. There is no real way to calculate how many plays he will make that Drew will not, nor what OPS he must reach to make his overall presence on the team worthwhile. I respect your opinion on this, but I just disagree. I think he has to PROVE himself before he is given a ticket to Boston

    I'm not projecting a near .700 OPS. I'd be happy with .600.

    Fielding is much easier to project from the minors to majors.

    Everyone knos he is a superb fielder.

    Almost everyone agrees that Drew has limitations.

    Some feel the pin in his ankle may further those limitations.

    Evidence clearly shows the best SSs make 80-130 more plays than the poor ones.

    I do not think it is a leap of faith to expect 60-80 more plays from Iggy over Drew.

    Projecting the offense is harder, but my position maintains that if Iggy can make 60-80 more plays on defense, he doesn't need to have an OPS over .600. 

    Why do you need him to prove his offense, but don't trust the defense that he has shown over several years already?



    Simple: because he has never proven his offense. Anywhere. Except A ball. I do not want a player, any player, with an OPS of .600 on my team. I would rather have a good SS defensively (not necessarily a great one) who can also contribute a bit with the bat and is not a virtual automatic out. You do realize that I wish for the best for Iggy; if he can learn to hit the baseball he could become a tremendous asset. Right now, he is AAA caliber, at best, overall.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    This is the essence of our difference of opinion about Iglesias. I say SHOW ME and you are willing to give him a chance without proof that Iggy can hit well enough to compensate for his however many runs he may save on defense. I think 250 PAs at the AAA level this year should give us enough evidence of where he is at with the bat. There is no real way to calculate how many plays he will make that Drew will not, nor what OPS he must reach to make his overall presence on the team worthwhile. I respect your opinion on this, but I just disagree. I think he has to PROVE himself before he is given a ticket to Boston

    I'm not projecting a near .700 OPS. I'd be happy with .600.

    Fielding is much easier to project from the minors to majors.

    Everyone knos he is a superb fielder.

    Almost everyone agrees that Drew has limitations.

    Some feel the pin in his ankle may further those limitations.

    Evidence clearly shows the best SSs make 80-130 more plays than the poor ones.

    I do not think it is a leap of faith to expect 60-80 more plays from Iggy over Drew.

    Projecting the offense is harder, but my position maintains that if Iggy can make 60-80 more plays on defense, he doesn't need to have an OPS over .600. 

    Why do you need him to prove his offense, but don't trust the defense that he has shown over several years already?

     



    Simple: because he has never proven his offense. Anywhere. Except A ball. I do not want a player, any player, with an OPS of .600 on my team. I would rather have a good SS defensively (not necessarily a great one) who can also contribute a bit with the bat and is not a virtual automatic out. You do realize that I wish for the best for Iggy; if he can learn to hit the baseball he could become a tremendous asset. Right now, he is AAA caliber, at best, overall.

     



    I think we have come full circle. You must not think Iggy can save 60-120 hits over Drew on defense, or you think an extra 40 hits (XBHs) by Drew outweighs allowing twice that to the opps.

    Yes, if Iggy learns to hit, he can become a tremendous asset, but just because Drew gets on base at a .310-.325 rate, it does not mean he comes close to being tremendous either. His fielding likely offserts any possible good offense and then some. It's the trade-off differentials we must disagree on. You think Drew's .320 OBP offserts his poor fielding (average at best), and I think Iggy's fielding more than offsets his poor hitting.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    This is the essence of our difference of opinion about Iglesias. I say SHOW ME and you are willing to give him a chance without proof that Iggy can hit well enough to compensate for his however many runs he may save on defense. I think 250 PAs at the AAA level this year should give us enough evidence of where he is at with the bat. There is no real way to calculate how many plays he will make that Drew will not, nor what OPS he must reach to make his overall presence on the team worthwhile. I respect your opinion on this, but I just disagree. I think he has to PROVE himself before he is given a ticket to Boston

    I'm not projecting a near .700 OPS. I'd be happy with .600.

    Fielding is much easier to project from the minors to majors.

    Everyone knos he is a superb fielder.

    Almost everyone agrees that Drew has limitations.

    Some feel the pin in his ankle may further those limitations.

    Evidence clearly shows the best SSs make 80-130 more plays than the poor ones.

    I do not think it is a leap of faith to expect 60-80 more plays from Iggy over Drew.

    Projecting the offense is harder, but my position maintains that if Iggy can make 60-80 more plays on defense, he doesn't need to have an OPS over .600. 

    Why do you need him to prove his offense, but don't trust the defense that he has shown over several years already?

     



    Simple: because he has never proven his offense. Anywhere. Except A ball. I do not want a player, any player, with an OPS of .600 on my team. I would rather have a good SS defensively (not necessarily a great one) who can also contribute a bit with the bat and is not a virtual automatic out. You do realize that I wish for the best for Iggy; if he can learn to hit the baseball he could become a tremendous asset. Right now, he is AAA caliber, at best, overall.

     

     



    I think we have come full circle. You must not think Iggy can save 60-120 hits over Drew on defense, or you think an extra 40 hits (XBHs) by Drew outweighs allowing twice that to the opps.

     

    Yes, if Iggy learns to hit, he can become a tremendous asset, but just because Drew gets on base at a .310-.325 rate, it does not mean he comes close to being tremendous either. His fielding likely offserts any possible good offense and then some. It's the trade-off differentials we must disagree on. You think Drew's .320 OBP offserts his poor fielding (average at best), and I think Iggy's fielding more than offsets his poor hitting.

     



    Drew has a career defensive WAR of 4.2 which is a little above average, as I understand it (correct me if I a wrong). I do not know how many more hits Iggy will take away than Drew, nor how many runs those hits will prevent. If I could accurately calculate exactly how many runs that would amount to, or calculate exactly how many hits Iggy will take away and how much that offsets his atrocious offense I would perhaps allow someone with an OPS of .600 in my lineup. I can't; and you can't either. So I want a guy who can contribute at least somewhat on both sides of the game. It a difference in philosophy.
    Why do you think the FO went out and got Drew if they have Iglesias waiting in the wings? Not that they are always right, but I think they got this one correct. Credit where credit is due.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Speaking of Scott Boras, he just earned a nice commission check for helping Kyle Lohse sign with the Brewers.  A 3-year, $33 million deal with an additional $1 million in performance bonuses.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2013/story/_/id/9096239/milwaukee-brewers-agree-deal-kyle-lohse-source-says

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Tonight's report from the fort..

    Yes, today's slugfest was a road game, but I took advantage of Peter Abraham's invitation in yesterday's Globe to come down to minor league mania and see scattered major leaguers. Well, we saw two major leaguers, Doubront pitched @six innings, and around 100 pitches. I say around six innings because there was at least one two out inning where Doubie had probably reached his per-inning pitch limit. He looked very solid against the high A team from Baltimore, lots of strike-outs, one walk that I saw and two pick-offs. The other big leaguer was Pedro Ciriaco who struck out and tripled in the two times I saw him hit. He and Marrerro alternated at short as rules are pretty loosely enforced in high A spring training games. Swihart was Doubie's catcher and Checini (sp?) played third. Vincio (??) played second and had a double and triple. Checcini did NOT impress me as he booted a fairly routine grounder and he and Swihart did a "you get it" "no YOU get it" with a foul pop that fell between them. We also skipped around to a low A game and a Lowell intra-squad game as three fields were buzzing. It was a fun and relaxed way to spend a few hours. 

    I got to meet Peter Abraham and assured him that he should not be looking over his shoulder as someone on here suggested. Believe it or not he had never heard of me or my reports from the fort. I was mildly disappointed but put my brave face and stiff upper lip on. I was also able to talk to Durbin who pitched the other day and Hanrahan who were both just casually drifting around watching the games. As many of you know I'm here taking care of my wheelchair-bound father-in-law and any time any of these players stop to chat with him it makes his day. So props for those two nice guys especially and there were others who I could not identify except to say that in person they look too young to be driving.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    This is the essence of our difference of opinion about Iglesias. I say SHOW ME and you are willing to give him a chance without proof that Iggy can hit well enough to compensate for his however many runs he may save on defense. I think 250 PAs at the AAA level this year should give us enough evidence of where he is at with the bat. There is no real way to calculate how many plays he will make that Drew will not, nor what OPS he must reach to make his overall presence on the team worthwhile. I respect your opinion on this, but I just disagree. I think he has to PROVE himself before he is given a ticket to Boston

    I'm not projecting a near .700 OPS. I'd be happy with .600.

    Fielding is much easier to project from the minors to majors.

    Everyone knos he is a superb fielder.

    Almost everyone agrees that Drew has limitations.

    Some feel the pin in his ankle may further those limitations.

    Evidence clearly shows the best SSs make 80-130 more plays than the poor ones.

    I do not think it is a leap of faith to expect 60-80 more plays from Iggy over Drew.

    Projecting the offense is harder, but my position maintains that if Iggy can make 60-80 more plays on defense, he doesn't need to have an OPS over .600. 

    Why do you need him to prove his offense, but don't trust the defense that he has shown over several years already?

     



    Simple: because he has never proven his offense. Anywhere. Except A ball. I do not want a player, any player, with an OPS of .600 on my team. I would rather have a good SS defensively (not necessarily a great one) who can also contribute a bit with the bat and is not a virtual automatic out. You do realize that I wish for the best for Iggy; if he can learn to hit the baseball he could become a tremendous asset. Right now, he is AAA caliber, at best, overall.

     

     



    I think we have come full circle. You must not think Iggy can save 60-120 hits over Drew on defense, or you think an extra 40 hits (XBHs) by Drew outweighs allowing twice that to the opps.

     

    Yes, if Iggy learns to hit, he can become a tremendous asset, but just because Drew gets on base at a .310-.325 rate, it does not mean he comes close to being tremendous either. His fielding likely offserts any possible good offense and then some. It's the trade-off differentials we must disagree on. You think Drew's .320 OBP offserts his poor fielding (average at best), and I think Iggy's fielding more than offsets his poor hitting.

     

     



    Drew has a career defensive WAR of 4.2 which is a little above average, as I understand it (correct me if I a wrong). I do not know how many more hits Iggy will take away than Drew, nor how many runs those hits will prevent. If I could accurately calculate exactly how many runs that would amount to, or calculate exactly how many hits Iggy will take away and how much that offsets his atrocious offense I would perhaps allow someone with an OPS of .600 in my lineup. I can't; and you can't either. So I want a guy who can contribute at least somewhat on both sides of the game. It a difference in philosophy.
    Why do you think the FO went out and got Drew if they have Iglesias waiting in the wings? Not that they are always right, but I think they got this one correct. Credit where credit is due.

     



    Fangraph's has him at -22.3 UZR and -4.6 UZR/150, including -10.7 last year (post ankle surgery).

    What sacres me most is not the pin in his ankle.

    It's not his low UZR/150.

    It is this:

    Out of 23 SS with 4,500 or more innings at SS since 2006, Drew places 21st in RangR (the range component of UZR). He's plus on DPR and ErrR, but get's killed on range. Most of those numbers were before the pin. I seriously doubt he improves on them in 2013.

    From 2010-2012 his RangR numbers did improve, but he still placed 20th out the top 30 SS by innings (1000+). 

    To me, he is clearly a minus ranged SS. He might make up for some of that by making all the sure plays and turning a DP well, but I'm sticking to my assessment that Iggy can and would make 60-80 more plays than Drew over 150 games in 2013.

    I can understand if you disagree with this, but I am having difficulty understanding hwo anyone who believes if this defensive differential was true, they'd still want the guy who gets 40 (all XBH) more hits instead.

     

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