A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    What do you guys think of the AL East in 2013?  I think it will be a dog fight where all five teams will be beating each other up.  

    In the AL Central, teams will be beating up on the Twins.  In the AL West, teams will be beating up on the Astros.  But in the AL East, there is no team to beat up on.

    Do you guys think this will hurt a team in the AL East from earning a Wild Card berth?  



    No wild card from the east, but I suppose if 2-3 teams really stink in the east, the others 2 could pad their numbers with a weaker scedule than the central or west. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Yesterday's report from the fort...sorry a day late due to internet troubles.

    But my internet came back in time to read that Bard didn't think he pitched badly. I hate to burst Dan's bubble, but three runs, three hits a walk a wild pitch and behind every hitter IS pitching badly! And if not for a great play by Holt the damage would have been worse. If he hadn't already done so, he punched his ticket for Pawtucket yesterday.

    The offense was very quiet. Gomes hit a bomb and had another solid hit. Both Pedroia and Napoli hit balls that would have been homers or wall balls except for the gale winds blowing in all day. Bradley singled and walked and hit a rocket into a double play; he's got to stick! Iggy singled but got picked off first; it's not the first time that has happened this spring.

    Lester was very good again, allowing only two singles in four very clean innings. Bailey, Miller and Tazawa were also all very good. But then there was Bard, ugh! Only two more games at home here, tonight and Saturday afternoon. I'll be putting together a recap player by player before I head home.

    I've already made my case clear on where I stand with regard to Iggy and Drew. No knock on Drew, but I'd play Iggy and let him learn to hit on the job. I'm just old-fashioned enough to think of shortstop as a defensive position. It looks like the team has settled on Carp and Nava and Sweeney as the last three players on the roster, at least until Ortiz and Drew come back. In fact, Ortiz and Drew could well be displacing Bradley and Iggy, as neither of those two should be bench players, as much as I hate that thought.

     

     



    I'm looking forward to your player report. Great job, jid!

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    It looks like the team has settled on Carp and Nava and Sweeney as the last three players on the roster, at least until Ortiz and Drew come back. 

     



    Correct me if I'm wrong, but one of those three has to be cut.  4 bench players total, minus the backup catcher = 3.  One has to be Ciriaco to cover the middle infield spots.

     



    With Papi and Drew on the DL, Gomes is the DH and Nava is the LF'er not a bench player.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    Jacoby Ellsbreaky OPS in 2008: .729 (this is simply not good enough); in 2009: .770. In 2007 he had a good OPS but it was based on a small sample size (127 PAs). He has a history of getting injured and being unable to play through his injuries. If that happens again and his OPS is in the mid .700s then smart GMs will see that he is not even worth the money you quoted.

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    moon,

     

    My gut tells me the only way Jacoby remains in Boston next season is by having a great 2013 and somewhat reasonable demands as a FA.  This may be difficult considering the weak FA, OF class in 2014 and the fact some team might over pay Ells. 

    Fortunately there are possibilities to improve 1B, C and SP if guy like Nap, Salty, Lav etc. struggle this season.  FA's like ...  Morneau, K. Morales, McCann, E. Santana, Lincecum, Garza, Floyd etc. are all possibilities.

    My hope is for guys like Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Iggy, Bogy, Bradley, Brentz and either Salty or Lav to have solid seasons.  If this happens and Bogy can come up at 3B in ST, with Middy moving to IB and Iggy to SS our future should begin to take shape with very few large investments needed for the immediate future.  

    There is a strong possibility this could happen!

    It could, but I think we have a stronger chance of Ellsbury returning if he was a poor or average season. He accpets a 1 year arb deal and tries to have a monster 2014 season and hopes to stike gold in 2015.



    Possibly, either way I don't see us in that bad of a position moving forward which is a lot more than we could say going into last season.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    My gut tells me the only way Jacoby remains in Boston next season is by having a great 2013 and somewhat reasonable demands as a FA.  This may be difficult considering the weak FA, OF class in 2014 and the fact some team might over pay Ells. ...

    ...

    There is a strong possibility this could happen!

    It could, but I think we have a stronger chance of Ellsbury returning if he was a poor or average season. He accpets a 1 year arb deal and tries to have a monster 2014 season and hopes to stike gold in 2015.

     



    Possibly, either way I don't see us in that bad of a position moving forward which is a lot more than we could say going into last season.

    Not having CC & Josh's contracts are a huge improvement. Let's hope we spend better next year.

    We lose about $40M in contracts (Drew, Ells, Han, Nap, Salty, & Ueh) and then lose Papi & Lackey's among other lessers after 2014.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think if Ellsbury has a good year Boras will take him out on the open market looking for a team or two to overpay. If he has a great year, Boras will be looking to break the bank of whomever signs him. If he has another injury plagued year or an off year Boras may be forced to have him sign somewhwere on a one-year "show me" contract. And that could be here. I don't see him staying here under any other circumstances, just my gut instinct.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    Correct me if I'm wrong, but one of those three has to be cut.  4 bench players total, minus the backup catcher = 3.  One has to be Ciriaco to cover the middle infield spots.

    With Papi and Drew on the DL, Gomes is the DH and Nava is the LF'er not a bench player.



    Right, unless it's Bradley in LF.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Always was a big Ellsbury fan and loved tweaking softlaw throughout 2011.  But after last year, I definitely have my doubts about his durability, to say nothing of the repeatability of 2011.  I honestly think he'll revert to about 10 dingers a season when he is healthy and the stolen bases will drop as much because he won't want to risk another injury.  Hard not to see him as damaged goods. 

    But the subject is a realistic view of 2013, and I am hopeful Ellsbury can contribute and I look forward to April 1 with Bradley, Ellsbury, and Victorino out there and Gomes, who fields like a DH, as the DH. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Did you guys see this on Redsox.com today:

    The Red Sox open their season Monday against the Yankees in New York as Jon Lester faces CC Sabathia at 1:05 p.m. ET. Below is the Red Sox's projected Opening Day lineup.

    1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
    2. RF: Shane Victorino
    3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
    4. 1B: Mike Napoli
    5. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
    6. DH: Jonny Gomes
    7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    8. LF: Jackie Bradley Jr.
    9. SS: Jose Iglesias
    SP: Jon Lester

     

    Look who is batting 8th!

     

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Posted today, less than an hour ago:

     

    http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130328&content_id=43451278&vkey=news_bos&c_id=bos

     

    JBJ is with the big club roaming LF in Yankee stadium. Imagine how exciting that will be for him.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Did you guys see this on Redsox.com today:

    The Red Sox open their season Monday against the Yankees in New York as Jon Lester faces CC Sabathia at 1:05 p.m. ET. Below is the Red Sox's projected Opening Day lineup.

    1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
    2. RF: Shane Victorino
    3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
    4. 1B: Mike Napoli
    5. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
    6. DH: Jonny Gomes
    7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    8. LF: Jackie Bradley Jr.
    9. SS: Jose Iglesias
    SP: Jon Lester

     

    Look who is batting 8th!

     

     

     




    They almost always do something like that with the rookies. Although I think he's probably a better leadoff hitter than Ells right now, I would imagine Farrell doesn't want to put too much pressure on the kid. Opening day in Yankee stadium is more than pressure enough.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Did you guys see this on Redsox.com today:

    The Red Sox open their season Monday against the Yankees in New York as Jon Lester faces CC Sabathia at 1:05 p.m. ET. Below is the Red Sox's projected Opening Day lineup.

    1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
    2. RF: Shane Victorino
    3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
    4. 1B: Mike Napoli
    5. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
    6. DH: Jonny Gomes
    7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    8. LF: Jackie Bradley Jr.
    9. SS: Jose Iglesias
    SP: Jon Lester

     

    Look who is batting 8th!

     

     

     

     




    They almost always do something like that with the rookies. Although I think he's probably a better leadoff hitter than Ells right now, I would imagine Farrell doesn't want to put too much pressure on the kid. Opening day in Yankee stadium is more than pressure enough.

     



    I agree. Starting on opening day in Yankee stadium is off the charts pressure. Can't say how cool this is though to me. I love it. I don't care about 6 years from now. Maybe they send him down for 20 days later in the season to just rest him up....

    for the playoffs!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    Jacoby Ellsbreaky OPS in 2008: .729 (this is simply not good enough); in 2009: .770. In 2007 he had a good OPS but it was based on a small sample size (127 PAs). He has a history of getting injured and being unable to play through his injuries. If that happens again and his OPS is in the mid .700s then smart GMs will see that he is not even worth the money you quoted.

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".



    Watch. Ellsbury gets $100 mil. Just watch.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    Jacoby Ellsbreaky OPS in 2008: .729 (this is simply not good enough); in 2009: .770. In 2007 he had a good OPS but it was based on a small sample size (127 PAs). He has a history of getting injured and being unable to play through his injuries. If that happens again and his OPS is in the mid .700s then smart GMs will see that he is not even worth the money you quoted.

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".

     



    Watch. Ellsbury gets $100 mil. Just watch.

     




    Who's going to give it to him? I'm sorry but I just don't see it.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Maybe even the Redsox. If he comes anywhere near 2011 again this year he will be very well paid. They gave Crawford $140 mil. Crawford never hit 31 HR and Ellsbury's on base skill is maybe a little better and to me his defense was better. It could happen. It's highly likely he gets at least a 5 year deal if he is healthy at all this year. The injuries he has had have been real and they have been major. The first few years he played, including the minors, he was relatively inkjury free. I doubt if he tries to steal as many bases this year and I bet he doesn't dive for balls as much but I'm down with that. We need him on the field. It's smart.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".

     



    Watch. Ellsbury gets $100 mil. Just watch.

     

     




    Who's going to give it to him? I'm sorry but I just don't see it.

     

    He might get $100M/8.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

     

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     

     



    idk about starting him against CC per se but how else are we going to find out if he's improved against LHP from the right side if we don't give him the chance?

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

     

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     



    I agree. I should have noticed that. Ross is the guy. Or should be against Sabathia.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Farrel might go into Francona mode and start Salty but Ross is the much better choice IMO.We should go with the numbers when it is this acute.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

     

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     

     



    idk about starting him against CC per se but how else are we going to find out if he's improved against LHP from the right side if we don't give him the chance?

     



    We don't need to find out. He'll need close to 50-65 games off anyways, so make them vs LHPs.

    Ross is being paid to be a significant back-up, and does well vs LHPs (and RHPs about the same).

    It's a no brainer.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Farrel might go into Francona mode and start Salty but Ross is the much better choice IMO.We should go with the numbers when it is this acute.

     



    Yeah, Tito liked to have the best overall players start on opening day, regardless of being dead wrong.

     

     

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