A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Did you guys see this on Redsox.com today:

    The Red Sox open their season Monday against the Yankees in New York as Jon Lester faces CC Sabathia at 1:05 p.m. ET. Below is the Red Sox's projected Opening Day lineup.

    1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
    2. RF: Shane Victorino
    3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
    4. 1B: Mike Napoli
    5. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
    6. DH: Jonny Gomes
    7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    8. LF: Jackie Bradley Jr.
    9. SS: Jose Iglesias
    SP: Jon Lester

     

    Look who is batting 8th!

     

     

     

     




    They almost always do something like that with the rookies. Although I think he's probably a better leadoff hitter than Ells right now, I would imagine Farrell doesn't want to put too much pressure on the kid. Opening day in Yankee stadium is more than pressure enough.

     



    I agree. Starting on opening day in Yankee stadium is off the charts pressure. Can't say how cool this is though to me. I love it. I don't care about 6 years from now. Maybe they send him down for 20 days later in the season to just rest him up....

    for the playoffs!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    Jacoby Ellsbreaky OPS in 2008: .729 (this is simply not good enough); in 2009: .770. In 2007 he had a good OPS but it was based on a small sample size (127 PAs). He has a history of getting injured and being unable to play through his injuries. If that happens again and his OPS is in the mid .700s then smart GMs will see that he is not even worth the money you quoted.

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".



    Watch. Ellsbury gets $100 mil. Just watch.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I don't disagree, but Jacoby has had a couple of decent to  more than decent years to go with 2011, plus an excellent partial season in 2007 (.902 OPS in 127 PAs).

    2008:  .280  50 SBs

    2009: .301  70 SBs  45 XBHs and a .355 OBP

     

    Some fool GM will overpay him by leaps and bounds. He'll get BJ Upton like money, when offering $39M/3 is probably too much, even with a good & healthy 2013 season.

     



    Jacoby Ellsbreaky OPS in 2008: .729 (this is simply not good enough); in 2009: .770. In 2007 he had a good OPS but it was based on a small sample size (127 PAs). He has a history of getting injured and being unable to play through his injuries. If that happens again and his OPS is in the mid .700s then smart GMs will see that he is not even worth the money you quoted.

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".

     



    Watch. Ellsbury gets $100 mil. Just watch.

     




    Who's going to give it to him? I'm sorry but I just don't see it.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Maybe even the Redsox. If he comes anywhere near 2011 again this year he will be very well paid. They gave Crawford $140 mil. Crawford never hit 31 HR and Ellsbury's on base skill is maybe a little better and to me his defense was better. It could happen. It's highly likely he gets at least a 5 year deal if he is healthy at all this year. The injuries he has had have been real and they have been major. The first few years he played, including the minors, he was relatively inkjury free. I doubt if he tries to steal as many bases this year and I bet he doesn't dive for balls as much but I'm down with that. We need him on the field. It's smart.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I never said he was "worth it". I said he was worth a $39M/3 offer. I said "some GM will overpay".

     



    Watch. Ellsbury gets $100 mil. Just watch.

     

     




    Who's going to give it to him? I'm sorry but I just don't see it.

     

    He might get $100M/8.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

     

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     

     



    idk about starting him against CC per se but how else are we going to find out if he's improved against LHP from the right side if we don't give him the chance?

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

     

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     



    I agree. I should have noticed that. Ross is the guy. Or should be against Sabathia.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Farrel might go into Francona mode and start Salty but Ross is the much better choice IMO.We should go with the numbers when it is this acute.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty should not start vs the lefty Sabathia.

    JBJ 7th (or higher)

    Ross 8th

     



    Salty said he's been working against LHP as a righty this spring. i'm interested to see if he's improved at all.. his potential payday will be much more significant if he can prove he is an everyday player and not get stuck in a platoon role.

     

     



    Ross is much better vs LHPs, and in my opinion will steal some games vs RHPs more than Shoppach did last year. 

     

    There is no way Salty should start vs CC.

    Here's his splits vs lefties:

    2012:  .494

    2011:  .635

    Career: .591

    vs CC: .214/.250/.286/.536

    I don't think Ross has ever faced CC.

     

     



    idk about starting him against CC per se but how else are we going to find out if he's improved against LHP from the right side if we don't give him the chance?

     



    We don't need to find out. He'll need close to 50-65 games off anyways, so make them vs LHPs.

    Ross is being paid to be a significant back-up, and does well vs LHPs (and RHPs about the same).

    It's a no brainer.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Farrel might go into Francona mode and start Salty but Ross is the much better choice IMO.We should go with the numbers when it is this acute.

     



    Yeah, Tito liked to have the best overall players start on opening day, regardless of being dead wrong.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    Yeah, Tito like to have the best overall players start on opening day, regardless of being dead wrong.



    Any examples of that?  I can't remember.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     


    Yeah, Tito like to have the best overall players start on opening day, regardless of being dead wrong.

     



    Any examples of that?  I can't remember.

     



    I can't recall any specifics, but I remeber thinking that he was doing it because it was the opener or home opener.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I can't recall any specifics, but I remeber thinking that he was doing it because it was the opener or home opener.



    It's easy enough to dig those games up on Baseball-Ref.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     


    I can't recall any specifics, but I remeber thinking that he was doing it because it was the opener or home opener.

     



    It's easy enough to dig those games up on Baseball-Ref.

     



    I seem to remember he ignored the L-R splits on several opening days, then reverted back to them right after that game.

    I can't remember who was available on each of those years to go back and figure it out. I think one was Salty vs CC instead of VTek.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Maybe even the Redsox. If he comes anywhere near 2011 again this year he will be very well paid. They gave Crawford $140 mil. Crawford never hit 31 HR and Ellsbury's on base skill is maybe a little better and to me his defense was better. It could happen. It's highly likely he gets at least a 5 year deal if he is healthy at all this year. The injuries he has had have been real and they have been major. The first few years he played, including the minors, he was relatively inkjury free. I doubt if he tries to steal as many bases this year and I bet he doesn't dive for balls as much but I'm down with that. We need him on the field. It's smart.

     




     

    Boom, there's bad blood between Ellsbury and the Sox.  Although Youkilis was the only one really vocal about it, there has to be other silent players who thought the same thing.

    And, I think the medical staff certainly was suspect during the whole affair.  Was it not Boras who insisted on more MRI's etc.?

    In essence, I think the honeymoon is over and Ellsbury himself would rather be elsewhere.

    This isn't necessarily a bad thing.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Maybe even the Redsox. If he comes anywhere near 2011 again this year he will be very well paid. They gave Crawford $140 mil. Crawford never hit 31 HR and Ellsbury's on base skill is maybe a little better and to me his defense was better. It could happen. It's highly likely he gets at least a 5 year deal if he is healthy at all this year. The injuries he has had have been real and they have been major. The first few years he played, including the minors, he was relatively inkjury free. I doubt if he tries to steal as many bases this year and I bet he doesn't dive for balls as much but I'm down with that. We need him on the field. It's smart.

     




     

    Boom, there's bad blood between Ellsbury and the Sox.  Although Youkilis was the only one really vocal about it, there has to be other silent players who thought the same thing.

    And, I think the medical staff certainly was suspect during the whole affair.  Was it not Boras who insisted on more MRI's etc.?

    In essence, I think the honeymoon is over and Ellsbury himself would rather be elsewhere.

    This isn't necessarily a bad thing.



    i think your just fabricating drama. Just because hothead (not to mention hypocrite) youk couldn't keep his trap shut doesn't mean other teammates think the same thing. also keep in mind that for the most part, this is a different team than in 2010.

    The ordeal itself was not a big deal. but it is overblown by people just like aceves with "drillgate" earlier this ST.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The market has probably changed a lot since the Crawford deal but we don't really know the true situation with a lot of these guys. A lot of people assumed Sweeney was going to be on the team but he never once got a tryout at 1st. It seemed that possibly they always looked at him as deep depth in case they needed it. It appears to me that just maybe he didn't work out much in the weight room or something because that warning track power wasn't getting it done. They bailed.

    Regarding Ellsbury, it is pure speculation on my part but I think the guy is probably going to put up great numbers this year but probably will not be anxious to steal bases or dive for balls at inappropriate times. He's trying to stay on the field, as he did his first few years in the minors and in mlb at first. I really think the guy can put up great numbers this year. He is our best shot to do that. He's done it before and he is in his prime. If he can get his timing back and stay on the field he is capable of a plus .900 OPS. 

    The main question is do the Yanks want him or the dodgers...etc. He might be in the same situation as Bourne and that didn't work out that well for him. Didn't Wainright just get $97.5 mil today though? Over 5 years from the Cardinals.

    It could absolutely happen for Ellsbury.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think more players had issues with Youk than Ells. I remember they took Manny's side in the famous watercooler mauling incident, when Manny gave Youk a chill pill.

    However, I do not feel Ells want to return here and won't.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm not projecting that Ell's comes back. I'm saying he could well get a $100 mil deal, even in a 6 year time frame, and it is certainly possible he comes back to the Redsox. They have said they like him. He has stayed in shape and worked hard to improve his game. He is in many ways exactly the type of player you want on a team. He is clearly more suited for Yankee stadium or a team like Philadelphia. He may just be more valuable for another team. He hit 31 HR when it's not easy to hit HR in Fenway's RF. Imagine how he would do in Philly all other factors being equal, with that short RF area.

    I just hope he gets off to a fast start for once at the major league level because, if he does, something special could result from it. We probably end up getting a pick in my opinion and Ellsbury probably gets his money.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm not projecting that Ell's comes back. I'm saying he could well get a $100 mil deal, even in a 6 year time frame, and it is certainly possible he comes back to the Redsox.

    I hope to God they don't even offer him $40M/3.

     

    They have said they like him.

    Boom, when's the last time any GM said they didn't like a player under contract?

     

    He has stayed in shape and worked hard to improve his game.

    I know it's 2 small sample sizes, but 2012 and 2013 ST have not looked good.

     

    He is in many ways exactly the type of player you want on a team.

    Not for $100M/6 or 7. Why choose this profile to break theself imposed longterm deal moratorium?

     

    He is clearly more suited for Yankee stadium or a team like Philadelphia. He may just be more valuable for another team. He hit 31 HR when it's not easy to hit HR in Fenway's RF. Imagine how he would do in Philly all other factors being equal, with that short RF area.

    He is clearly more valuable to another team.

     

    I just hope he gets off to a fast start for once at the major league level because, if he does, something special could result from it. We probably end up getting a pick in my opinion and Ellsbury probably gets his money.

    I think he'll get close to Bourn or BJ Upton money.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Maybe even the Redsox. If he comes anywhere near 2011 again this year he will be very well paid. They gave Crawford $140 mil. Crawford never hit 31 HR and Ellsbury's on base skill is maybe a little better and to me his defense was better. It could happen. It's highly likely he gets at least a 5 year deal if he is healthy at all this year. The injuries he has had have been real and they have been major. The first few years he played, including the minors, he was relatively inkjury free. I doubt if he tries to steal as many bases this year and I bet he doesn't dive for balls as much but I'm down with that. We need him on the field. It's smart.

     




     

    Boom, there's bad blood between Ellsbury and the Sox.  Although Youkilis was the only one really vocal about it, there has to be other silent players who thought the same thing.

    And, I think the medical staff certainly was suspect during the whole affair.  Was it not Boras who insisted on more MRI's etc.?

    In essence, I think the honeymoon is over and Ellsbury himself would rather be elsewhere.

    This isn't necessarily a bad thing.

     



    i think your just fabricating drama. Just because hothead (not to mention hypocrite) youk couldn't keep his trap shut doesn't mean other teammates think the same thing. also keep in mind that for the most part, this is a different team than in 2010.

     

    The ordeal itself was not a big deal. but it is overblown by people just like aceves with "drillgate" earlier this ST.

     




     

    I'm not trying to fabricate drama.  I'm just stating my opinion.

    Regarding Youkilis, wasn't he considered a hero while he was here?  The same holds true for Papelbon.  Then, because they're playing for different teams, all of a sudden they're bigmouths or troublemakers...or whatever.

    Heaven forbid what would be said about Pedroia if he were to leave.

     

     
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