A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    Ells has to be looking over both shoulders come opening day. I want to think the competition is good thing, & I predict he'll have a great year. If he stays healthy all year he's definitely getting his payday w/ some team, just not w/ the Sox. I like him, but He's expendable. I hope he stays the year because this is panning-out to be a very interesting team. 

    Moon? You really think 40/3 is too much? Or is that based on how often hes not playing due to injury? 




    If Ells has productive season this year 3 / 40 mil isn't even in the rear view mirror. He will probably be looking at some where near 17 mil per / 5 yrs or quite possibly more. Remember Yanks gave J.Damon 12 mil per and that was 10 yrs ago. Ells better player, but Damon at least stayed on the field.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Maybe I am exaggerating somewhat, but it just seems to me that it doesn't take much 'wind' to change the direction of the sentiment some fans have for a player.  If someone goes into a slump, a lot of fans just take that as an opportunity to call for a benching etc..  Look at the negative ovation that Damon got when he went to the Yankees...after what he did playing for us!

    To be honest, if I were in his shoes and another team offered me millions more, I probably would have taken it too.  The shelf-life of most players is very short.  Can you blame them for following the money?

    Because of the rediculous amount of money Boras will ask for Ellsbury, I'll bet the farm that the Sox don't sign him.  Heck, Victorino, Gomes, Drew are strictly bridge-gap fillers(for which I thought were grossly overpaid) until Bradley, and/or some other stud, comes out of the woodwork from the farm for a fraction of the cost.

    Personally, I'd much prefer cheering for a group of hungry kids giving it their all than a bunch of overpaid, underproducing veterans.  And, if they eventually want the super bucks, let them go and nurture another group of home-grown talent.

     

     

     



    I'm with you on this one Amp. That approach seems to work out pretty well for Tampa Bay and other teams. I'd do a large contract deal once in a while for a Verlander type guy though. To get a Cabrera level bat. The true studs. It is so common for the big bucks to get offered and then see the guy tank. I think the Sox are trying to do that now, with short term fill in deals being their norm only when they feel they have to, and often just as insurance. It looks like they are giving Iglesias and Bradley a real shot this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Webster coming up I95 within a few months also.

     

    It's kind of a hybrid approach. They have the money to do the fill in the gaps / insurance type approach with lots of depth also but they are not rolling out many $100 mil contracts for anyone currently on the market.

     




    I couldn't agree more. I've been saying for a while now that if you're going to roll out a big money long term deal it had better be for a Manny Ramirez or Pedro type player. Otherwise if the player is going to get a long contract let some other team assume that albatross. I firmly believe that most FA contracts should be limited to a maximum of 3 years in length, unless you're getting a can't miss stud. I also reckon that if the Red Sox and Yankees adhered to this philosophy the market would soon follow. As for Ellsbury I don't think he's injury prone but he sure seems to take a long time to get back on the field when he does get hurt. So if he's going to get $100M I say let him get it somewhere else.

     



    Exactly, then add to the fact that JBJ should be the CF'er- now we'd have to move one to LF.

    to MEf429: I get your argument about "injury prone", but many players know hos to avoid collisions- they actually do what little leaguers are taught: they call for the balls that they can catch and have a better angle at catching.

    I do not label Ells "injury prone", but so much missed time and longer than usual recovery times have become frustrating and bothersome. 

    He had a fantastic 2011 season, and there is every reason to think he can do it again (and again), but many players have one singular great season mixed in with many mediocre to decent seasons, and there is every reason to think this may be the case as well.

    If he comes close to 2011 numbers this year, he may get close to $100M/6 or 7, but I would not come close to that offer. The CC deal should be warning enough. Ells is not the guy to put all your eggs in the basket over.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Maybe I am exaggerating somewhat, but it just seems to me that it doesn't take much 'wind' to change the direction of the sentiment some fans have for a player.  If someone goes into a slump, a lot of fans just take that as an opportunity to call for a benching etc..  Look at the negative ovation that Damon got when he went to the Yankees...after what he did playing for us!

    To be honest, if I were in his shoes and another team offered me millions more, I probably would have taken it too.  The shelf-life of most players is very short.  Can you blame them for following the money?

    Because of the rediculous amount of money Boras will ask for Ellsbury, I'll bet the farm that the Sox don't sign him.  Heck, Victorino, Gomes, Drew are strictly bridge-gap fillers(for which I thought were grossly overpaid) until Bradley, and/or some other stud, comes out of the woodwork from the farm for a fraction of the cost.

    Personally, I'd much prefer cheering for a group of hungry kids giving it their all than a bunch of overpaid, underproducing veterans.  And, if they eventually want the super bucks, let them go and nurture another group of home-grown talent.

     

     

     



    I'm with you on this one Amp. That approach seems to work out pretty well for Tampa Bay and other teams. I'd do a large contract deal once in a while for a Verlander type guy though. To get a Cabrera level bat. The true studs. It is so common for the big bucks to get offered and then see the guy tank. I think the Sox are trying to do that now, with short term fill in deals being their norm only when they feel they have to, and often just as insurance. It looks like they are giving Iglesias and Bradley a real shot this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Webster coming up I95 within a few months also.

     

    It's kind of a hybrid approach. They have the money to do the fill in the gaps / insurance type approach with lots of depth also but they are not rolling out many $100 mil contracts for anyone currently on the market.

     




    I couldn't agree more. I've been saying for a while now that if you're going to roll out a big money long term deal it had better be for a Manny Ramirez or Pedro type player. Otherwise if the player is going to get a long contract let some other team assume that albatross. I firmly believe that most FA contracts should be limited to a maximum of 3 years in length, unless you're getting a can't miss stud. I also reckon that if the Red Sox and Yankees adhered to this philosophy the market would soon follow. As for Ellsbury I don't think he's injury prone but he sure seems to take a long time to get back on the field when he does get hurt. So if he's going to get $100M I say let him get it somewhere else.

     

     



    Exactly, then add to the fact that JBJ should be the CF'er- now we'd have to move one to LF.

     

    to MEf429: I get your argument about "injury prone", but many players know hos to avoid collisions- they actually do what little leaguers are taught: they call for the balls that they can catch and have a better angle at catching.

    I do not label Ells "injury prone", but so much missed time and longer than usual recovery times have become frustrating and bothersome. 

    He had a fantastic 2011 season, and there is every reason to think he can do it again (and again), but many players have one singular great season mixed in with many mediocre to decent seasons, and there is every reason to think this may be the case as well.

    If he comes close to 2011 numbers this year, he may get close to $100M/6 or 7, but I would not come close to that offer. The CC deal should be warning enough. Ells is not the guy to put all your eggs in the basket over.



    A real solid series of articles have been coming out on Ellsbury. Like this one:

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/03/29/jacoby-ellsbury-and-gap-between-perception-and

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Ells has to be looking over both shoulders come opening day. I want to think the competition is good thing, & I predict he'll have a great year. If he stays healthy all year he's definitely getting his payday w/ some team, just not w/ the Sox. I like him, but He's expendable. I hope he stays the year because this is panning-out to be a very interesting team. 

    Moon? You really think 40/3 is too much? Or is that based on how often hes not playing due to injury? 

     




     

    If Ells has productive season this year 3 / 40 mil isn't even in the rear view mirror. He will probably be looking at some where near 17 mil per / 5 yrs or quite possibly more. Remember Yanks gave J.Damon 12 mil per and that was 10 yrs ago. Ells better player, but Damon at least stayed on the field.



    I am certain he will get more than $39M/3, but that doesn't mean I think he's worth it. Technically, if he gets it- that's his "worth" to someone, but that someone is not me, and hopefully not Ben either.

    When we signed CC, I said we overpaid by more the $50M. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Think your 60- 100 # might be a bit of a stretch to say the least, Like I have previously stated watch a lot of Yankee games here in CT on a week I might see 1 or 2 plays that Jeter does not make that I feel a Iggy type SS would have made. If Drew hits 50 more just XBH's in just a season not to mention how many more base hits, how many TOTAL bases is that on the offensive side?


    If Drew has an OBP of .330 (generous) and Iggy .250 (harsh), that's Drew getting on base  40 more times than Iggy over 500 PAs. Let's say 10 of those are HRs and 30 are 2Bs. He'd have roughly 100 more total bases. To me, that is the max we could expect, and it would more likely be 40-70, assuming they bot stay heaalthy enough to give 500 PAs in 2013.

    As to the Jeter vs Iggy plays made, my guess is we might see 1-2 more plays made  by Iggy every game. That's easily 150 per season over 150 games.

     

     

    Look I love what I've seen from Iggy this ST, its just IMO needs to go to AAA prove not only to us, but himself that he can hit mlb pitching. If you make him the starter this yr and he fails miserably again, confidence wise might lose him forever. I'm not willing to take that chance, make him prove he is ready, thats all.

     I get your point. Just repeating it over and over is not making me "understand it" any better. I have said your point has merit, but I disagree. I think Iggy's defense more than makes up for his possible offensive weaknesses.

     

    Many athletes have come back from injuries even worse to perform even better than previous, did anyone think Adrian Peterson would come back from his injury to perform the way he did last yr.

     I think you are missing my point. I am not saying Drew can't come back to form with a pin in his foot, but I am noit expecting him to improve over the Drew prior to the pin. I think he'd need to improve on his defense to change my equation between the two. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? I think, no.

     

    That voters are insane. 

    anything that trusts the human eye can be judgemental, why I don't trust fielding metrics 100%


    Do you trust your own eyes?

    The people who do the judging for UZR are trained, rotated, and watch thousands more plays than we do. It is flawed for sure, but it to be better than us, who watch 162 games by the Sox and maybe 3-20 by any other specific SS from another team.

    Over the years, I have seen what seems like 1-2 plays per game made by the opponent's SS against us. Maybe it just seems that way, but I am certain it has been near 120 or more. The data does show that some SSs make 120+ more plays than others in teh same amount of innings, and those numbers stay pretyy consistent from year to year. even as some of these SSs change teams and parks.

     

     

     

    I'm sure the teams that were bidding for his services this offseason scouted him quite a bit at end of last season and were convinced he was not a liability as you make him out to be. Think the A's were pretty happy w/ what he did for them the 2nd half of last season, enough so to try and resign him.

    I have never said Drew is a bad SS not worthy of some team trying to sign him. I think because you feel so badly about Iggy, that you assume if I think he is better than Drew, I must think lowly of Drew. That's not true. I think Iggy can be a top 15 overall SS in MLB in 2013. That doesn't mean I think Drew is useless, when I have said my equation puts them pretty close.

     

     

    If Iggy had a severe ankle injury, I'd expect less range, probably enough to make the Drew-Iggy call a toss-up or leaning to Drew. An ankle to a SS is pretty darn important for that first step, pivot plays, etc...\

    and no one though Adrian Peterson would rush for 2,000 yds last season coming off a MUCH MORE severe injury. Like I said I'm sure teams scouted him pretty well at end of last yr and were convinced he was not a liability in the field.

    Did he get better? Maybe a select few can and do, but my guess is that most 30+ year old players with major injuries do not improve after they return.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I refigured the luxury tax budget amount and went to enter and it erased.

    The total was about $166M including the player pension amount and the Dodger payment.

    That leaves us about $12M under the limit. In theory, we could trade for salary dump players at the deadline with contracts worth $36M for the full season. (.33 x 36 = 12).

    Something to think about.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I refigured the luxury tax budget amount and went to enter and it erased.

    The total was about $166M including the player pension amount and the Dodger payment.

    That leaves us about $12M under the limit. In theory, we could trade for salary dump players at the deadline with contracts worth $36M for the full season. (.33 x 36 = 12).

    Something to think about.



    thanks for the calculations moon. interesting info. that definitely leaves us wiggle room to bolster our team at the deadline if need be.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Ells has to be looking over both shoulders come opening day. I want to think the competition is good thing, & I predict he'll have a great year. If he stays healthy all year he's definitely getting his payday w/ some team, just not w/ the Sox. I like him, but He's expendable. I hope he stays the year because this is panning-out to be a very interesting team. 

    Moon? You really think 40/3 is too much? Or is that based on how often hes not playing due to injury? 

     



    I agree on Jacoby having a good year but not the fact hes really expendable just yet.  Bradley and a healthy Jacoby could make for a great L & CF combination.  If Ells has a good year and the price is reasonable enough to resign him, its still possible.  We don't have many major league ready OF's besides Bradley for the near future. 

     

    However I do agree chances are, Ells will probably be playing somewhere else next season. 



    Ellsbury should have been traded in a package with some position player prospects in return for some good pitching prospects. Bradley could then be in CF (after April 12). Cherington is still not all in on planning for a run at a ring in 2015.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ellsbury should have been traded in a package with some position player prospects in return for some good pitching prospects. Bradley could then be in CF (after April 12). Cherington is still not all in on planning for a run at a ring in 2015.

    I agree and said it long ago. Now, many are seeing the wisdom of that idea as JBJ, the better fielder, may be forced to play LF. 

    Dumb.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    All due respect, but I think moonslav is overstating how many plays Iglesias will make--specfically, 1 or 2 per game--that ordinary shortshops like Drew would not make.  If he is right, the Sox would not even have bothered to get Drew in the offseason.    If you add the criterion that the exceptional play also saves a run, I think a more realistic number would be no more than 1 or 2 plays a week.  I still prefer Iglesias over Drew because to me as a fan great defense is more fun to watch.  Plus I do agree the pitchers like to know they are being backed up by a superb SS.   Plus it's always great to see a young player come up thru the system. 

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The SI.com 2013 MLB Experts' Picks mention only one Red Sox player:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130325/mlb-preview-staff-predictions/

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    All due respect, but I think moonslav is overstating how many plays Iglesias will make--specfically, 1 or 2 per game--that ordinary shortshops like Drew would not make. 

    No, I said it "seemed like" opposing SSs were making 1-2 more plays per game than our SS could make. Then, I said the number is more like 120+ per season, which is about 0.75 per game.

    I do not think it is an exaggeration at all. Every year the same SSs make 80-130 more plays than other SSs with about the same innings at SS. I am not certain that Iggy is as great as I have heard he is and as I have seen in a small sample size, but nobody has ever denied his great range. The issue seems to be my projection of Drew as a below average-ranged SS or "average at best" as I have called him. I admit I may be wrong here as I was with Aviles last year.

     

    If he is right, the Sox would not even have bothered to get Drew in the offseason.   

    That's assuming Ben assumes I am right. He could be wrong.  I don't think Theo or Ben values great SS range as much as I do. I am not pretending to know more than them or anyone else, but it is my opinion, and I have some facts and data to back it up.

     

     If you add the criterion that the exceptional play also saves a run, I think a more realistic number would be no more than 1 or 2 plays a week.  I still prefer Iglesias over Drew because to me as a fan great defense is more fun to watch.  Plus I do agree the pitchers like to know they are being backed up by a superb SS.   Plus it's always great to see a young player come up thru the system. 

    So, if we assume 1.5 plays per week, that would make it about 40 plays over 162 games. If you added 40 singles to Iggy's offense, it would convert his BA over 500 PAs from this to that:

    .200 to .280

    .220 to .300

    .240 to .320

    .260 to .340

    .275 to .355

    His OBP could go up from...

    .260 to .340

    .270 to .350

    .280 to .360

    .290 to .370

    .300 to .380

    His SLG% also goes up, making his OPS very close if not better than Drew's projected OPS, even with your conservative defensive differential number.

    I'd like you and others to watch Iggy closely as he starts for the first few games, and ask yourself, "would Aviles, Scutaro, or Lowrie have made that play?" Count how many you see per game, and let's compare notes after Drew returns.

    Like I said, I did this last season with Aviles and stopped counting after April. Mike was much better ranged than I thought he was. I hope Drew is as well.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Ellsbury should have been traded in a package with some position player prospects in return for some good pitching prospects. Bradley could then be in CF (after April 12). Cherington is still not all in on planning for a run at a ring in 2015.

    I agree and said it long ago. Now, many are seeing the wisdom of that idea as JBJ, the better fielder, may be forced to play LF. 

    Dumb.



    There is still hope that the trade will be made in July. And that would be fine too, except that Bradley really should be with the club all year except for the first 12 days.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The SI.com 2013 MLB Experts' Picks mention only one Red Sox player:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130325/mlb-preview-staff-predictions/



    Yes, FA Flop of the Year:

    Shane Victorino, Red Sox. He's stopped hitting from the left side and has lost a step in the outfield, two huge problems for a guy making $13 million a year.

    Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130325/mlb-preview-staff-predictions/#ixzz2OxQsvkKe

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Ellsbury should have been traded in a package with some position player prospects in return for some good pitching prospects. Bradley could then be in CF (after April 12). Cherington is still not all in on planning for a run at a ring in 2015.

    I agree and said it long ago. Now, many are seeing the wisdom of that idea as JBJ, the better fielder, may be forced to play LF. 

    Dumb.

     



    There is still hope that the trade will be made in July. And that would be fine too, except that Bradley really should be with the club all year except for the first 12 days.

     



    ,,,and he should be in CF every one of those games.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The SI.com 2013 MLB Experts' Picks mention only one Red Sox player:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130325/mlb-preview-staff-predictions/



    More of them picked the Angels than the A's.  

    The Angels have a great lineup but their bullpen is a mess and their closer is an injured and old veteran.  So I see the A's winning the AL West and the Angels winning a wild card berth.  

    Despite trading away Shields, the Rays have a solid starting rotation.  But they will have trouble scoring runs.  So I see the Rays finishing at 86-76 with no playoff berth.  

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Last night's report from the fort...

    Very entertaining game as you would expect when teams are battling for the vaunted mayor's cup;)

    Buchholz looked very sharp, fastball, change and breaking balls all with late life and inducing lots of swings and misses or weak ground balls. Hanrahan and Uhera also looked very sharp; Aceves not so much. Ace was behind hitters, gave up a few hits and botvhed a sure double play with a terrible throw into center field.

    The bats came to life a little, led by Ellsbury with a hustle double that led to the first run. He was "going oppo" as the kids on my legion team would say, and he is more effective that way. Gomes hit well and both Ross and Iggy got run-producing hits with two outs.

    It looks like Carp and Nava win the final two spots. I fear that when Ortiz and Drew come back they will supplant Iggy and Bradley Jr. on the roster; I hope I am wrong.

     

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    The SI.com 2013 MLB Experts' Picks mention only one Red Sox player:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130325/mlb-preview-staff-predictions/

     



    More of them picked the Angels than the A's.  

     

    The Angels have a great lineup but their bullpen is a mess and their closer is an injured and old veteran.  So I see the A's winning the AL West and the Angels winning a wild card berth.  

    Despite trading away Shields, the Rays have a solid starting rotation.  But they will have trouble scoring runs.  So I see the Rays finishing at 86-76 with no playoff berth.  

     

     



    People have been saying this about the Rays offense for years, but they keep winning.

     

    They could improve their offense with Longoria staying healthy all year, Jennings improving, Zobrist returning to greatness, Matt Joyce returning to 2010-2011 numbers, and finally some better offense from the SS position. They may also have a little cash to spend at the deadline. Myers may add some spark after June.

    I think Moore and Cobb step up to make it seem like Shields never left.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Last night's report from the fort...

    Very entertaining game as you would expect when teams are battling for the vaunted mayor's cup;)

    Buchholz looked very sharp, fastball, change and breaking balls all with late life and inducing lots of swings and misses or weak ground balls. Hanrahan and Uhera also looked very sharp; Aceves not so much. Ace was behind hitters, gave up a few hits and botvhed a sure double play with a terrible throw into center field.

    The bats came to life a little, led by Ellsbury with a hustle double that led to the first run. He was "going oppo" as the kids on my legion team would say, and he is more effective that way. Gomes hit well and both Ross and Iggy got run-producing hits with two outs.

    It looks like Carp and Nava win the final two spots. I fear that when Ortiz and Drew come back they will supplant Iggy and Bradley Jr. on the roster; I hope I am wrong.

     



    When Drew returns it's a 100% sure Iggy goes down, unless Pedro is hurt.

    When Papi returns, JBJ gets his 20 days in AAA, and then the big decision has to be made. By then, maybe an OF'er is hurt or struggling, or we send Nava down. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Still one game left tomorrow, but here is my spring training review, broken down by position and by player.

    Starting Pitching...The rotation appears set with Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Doubront and Lackey in that order. For the time being Aceves is the long man/spot starter, but I believe that if a starter is needed for more than one start that Webster would be called up. Here's how I break them down...

    Lester..he was lights out this spring! He's throwing harder, working faster, ignoring umpires, throwing downhill and throwing fewer cutters. Grade A+ for the spring! 15-20 wins is not out of the question.

    Buchholz...not very far behind Lester. Great stats but more important than the stats is the swagger he shows on the mound. He used to slow the game to a crawl with runners on, but not this spring. He has always had electric stuff, going back to his no-no, but he seems to be growing consistent. Another A+ for the spring and Cy Young potential.

    Dempster...will not blow anyone away with velocity or sfuff. What he will do is pound the strike zone, pitch to contact, and pile up innings. On a team that may boast the top pen in the league, a solid six-inning guy who will pile up quality starts can easily win 12-15 games.

    Doubront... has swing and miss stuff but a bigger belly than me. And he nibbles, nibbles! He is an inigma since he has great stuff and has yet to make serious MLB money, yet he is potentially costing himself millions with poor conditioning and lapses of concentration on the mound. The inigma could win 12-15 games or he could be out of the rotation by mid-year.

    Lackey...could be the talk of the season (once the Bradley hype subsides) as he looks great, is throwing in the low 90's, pounding the strike zone and pitching to contact. He will give up hits but the team may turn more double plays behind him that any other starter. As long as he doesn't run into any health issues, or the dead arm recovery period, he should be a double-digit winner. He will also benefit from pitching against other teams' fifth starter early in the season.

    Aceves...I'm already on record as saying he should have been booted last year, so I'm obviously not a fan. He has good stuff but is a Jeckyl/Hyde character.His best role is the one he's in, but he may not believe that, nor be happy with it. So another explosion could be imminent.

    Webster...this guy is the real deal. He will win important games for this team this year and going forward will be a mainstay in the rotation. Good velocity, lots of downward tilt on his pitches and exceptional control for a young guy. Needs innings at AAA to work on consistency, but he is very impressive.

    Others...Wright was terrible, haven't seen Morales, De La Rosa started out great but struggled late, Doyle and others are AAA pitchers at best. Never saw Barnes, Renaudo or Owens, but heard great things about each.

    Overall the weakest part of the team last year could be the team's second greatest strength, behind the pen. I wouldn't be shocked if by mid season Lackey was the three and Dempster the five, nor would I be shocked to see Doubront either excel or implode. I will be surprised if Lester and Buchholz don't win at least 30 games between them. I think the combination of Ross, Salty, Nieves and Farrell, in no particular order, have brought this group back to the respectability they should garner. I will also add that a much better defense, a healthy Ells over the hodge-podge of CF's last year, Iggy over Aviles, a healthy Pedroia for 155 games, a healthy Middlebrooks for 150 games, Victorino and Bradley over the collection of outfielders from last year, and finally an improved Salty and the great addition of Ross all will allow our pitchers to pitch with much greater confidence and throw fewer pitches per inning.

    Relievers next.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Lester..he was lights out this spring! He's throwing harder, working faster, ignoring umpires, throwing downhill and throwing fewer cutters. Grade A+ for the spring! 15-20 wins is not out of the question.

    Great job, jid. Lot's of good stuff here.

    I read on fangraphs once that there is next to no examples of a SP who lost velocity without an injury to regain it. Is Lester a freak?

     

    Buchholz...not very far behind Lester. Great stats but more important than the stats is the swagger he shows on the mound. He used to slow the game to a crawl with runners on, but not this spring. He has always had electric stuff, going back to his no-no, but he seems to be growing consistent. Another A+ for the spring and Cy Young potential.

    I love Buch and think he can be Cy Young material if he can get 32 healthy starts. 

     

    Dempster...will not blow anyone away with velocity or sfuff. What he will do is pound the strike zone, pitch to contact, and pile up innings. On a team that may boast the top pen in the league, a solid six-inning guy who will pile up quality starts can easily win 12-15 games.

    I'm not that optimistic here, but he has the numbers to give us strong hope.

     

    Doubront... has swing and miss stuff but a bigger belly than me. And he nibbles, nibbles! He is an inigma since he has great stuff and has yet to make serious MLB money, yet he is potentially costing himself millions with poor conditioning and lapses of concentration on the mound. The inigma could win 12-15 games or he could be out of the rotation by mid-year.

    He irked me back in 2011 when the 5th slot was his to lose, and he came to camp out of shape then languished in rehab for months. Now this. I'm sorry; I know he has nasty stuff, but I'd have traded him before he exposes the character flaw.

     

    Lackey...could be the talk of the season (once the Bradley hype subsides) as he looks great, is throwing in the low 90's, pounding the strike zone and pitching to contact. He will give up hits but the team may turn more double plays behind him that any other starter. As long as he doesn't run into any health issues, or the dead arm recovery period, he should be a double-digit winner. He will also benefit from pitching against other teams' fifth starter early in the season.

    Good point. I'm pulling hard for John. He could win Comeback Player of the Year due to such a low low  point to come back from.

     

    Aceves...I'm already on record as saying he should have been booted last year, so I'm obviously not a fan. He has good stuff but is a Jeckyl/Hyde character.His best role is the one he's in, but he may not believe that, nor be happy with it. So another explosion could be imminent.

    He's maybe the best long-mid relief guy in MLB over the last 2-4 years.

     

    Webster...this guy is the real deal. He will win important games for this team this year and going forward will be a mainstay in the rotation. Good velocity, lots of downward tilt on his pitches and exceptional control for a young guy. Needs innings at AAA to work on consistency, but he is very impressive.

    When others were talking up DLR, I kept saying we shouldn't forget Web. This guy can pitch!

     

    Others...Wright was terrible, haven't seen Morales, De La Rosa started out great but struggled late, Doyle and others are AAA pitchers at best. Never saw Barnes, Renaudo or Owens, but heard great things about each.

     

    Overall the weakest part of the team last year could be the team's second greatest strength, behind the pen. I wouldn't be shocked if by mid season Lackey was the three and Dempster the five, nor would I be shocked to see Doubront either excel or implode. I will be surprised if Lester and Buchholz don't win at least 30 games between them. I think the combination of Ross, Salty, Nieves and Farrell, in no particular order, have brought this group back to the respectability they should garner. I will also add that a much better defense, a healthy Ells over the hodge-podge of CF's last year, Iggy over Aviles, a healthy Pedroia for 155 games, a healthy Middlebrooks for 150 games, Victorino and Bradley over the collection of outfielders from last year, and finally an improved Salty and the great addition of Ross all will allow our pitchers to pitch with much greater confidence and throw fewer pitches per inning.

    That and a real SS at SS, a much improved OF defense, and a healthy Middlebrooks at 3B should improve the staff even if they pitch just like 2012.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The bullpen is clearly the strength of the team. I know that historically relievers' stats are hard to predict, but this group are akll hard throwers, with the exception of Mortensen, all throw strikes and challenge hitters. One by one...

    Hanrahan... started slowly but turned on a switch half-way through st and has been lights out since. Post beard he has been close to perfect with a lot more fastballs around 94-95 and fewer breaking balls. His fastball has lots of late life as it explodes on hitters like Paps in his day.

    Bailey...I didn't like the way he threw last year after he returned from the DL and I felt the same way for the first few weeks of ST But he too turned on the switch and has been very effective lately.  I still think he throws too much from the side, not over the top enough for my taste, but he does hit 95 on the gun consistently but his breaking stuff can flatten out with his 3/4 ddelivery.

    Miller...It looks as if he has resigned himself to being a reliever and looks very confortable in the role. He has a swagger, great velocity and the ball coming out of his hand from 55 feet away instead of 60 makes him very effective. Can do a lot more than be the lefty on lefty guy.

    Tazawa...he may have the most versatile stuff of anyone in the pen. I am still of the opinion that he has enough pitches to be a starter and would love to see him stretched out at some point, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him be a closer if Hanrahan seeks the mother lode in free agency. He has great presence and seems unflappable and unafraind to throw any pitch in any situation.

    Uhera...what a great addition he could be! He throws very hard ( it must be strange for hitters to look out at these two fairly small Japanese and have the ball get to you as fast as it does), has a nasty slider, and pounds the strike zone. I don't believe he's given up a run yet this spring.

    Mortenson...The soft-tosser in the bunch, he has a great change but his fastball is very pedestrian. He has great control and can pitch multiple innings. He'll probably be the guy Farrell goes to when they are behind.

    Aceves..see above post about starters. He is best as the long reliever able to give multiple innings. Great stuff, but a knucklehead. Hopefully the coaching staff and the peer pressure can keep him in line, but I wouldn't be surprised by anything this guy does or doesn't do.

    More on the others later. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    great analysis Jid! you'd give the guys at the globe a run for their money!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Other relievers continued...

    Perhaps the second biggest disappointment of the spring (clearly Ortiz is number one) is Daniel Bard. He looks totally lost, unable to throw strikes and not trusting his stuff. The demotion to AA speaks volumes as to how far he's fallen. Having said that, not many of the other minor leaguers or invitees did much to distinguish themselves. In fact, if you look at the overall spring training record most of the losses and most of the earned runs were allowed by this group. Rubby started very well but got shelled in later outings. Drake Britton got hammered in more ways than one and may have endangered his career with a DUI. Breslow and Morales never seeing the mound was a frustration and disappointment as before the year is over we are likely to need one or both, if not to perform then at least as trade bait. But it would be nice to have more than just Miller as a LH option. Of the minor leaguers or invitees Alex Wilson and Anthony Carter had shining moments as did Chris Hernandez, a soft-tossing lefty starter at AAA last year. All three also had moments when they got lit up as well. As good as our pen appears we have little "deep depth" without the two lefties, Morales and Breslow and with an ineffective Bard.

     
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