Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 3/30/2013 8:59 AM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
All due respect, but I think moonslav is overstating how many plays Iglesias will make--specfically, 1 or 2 per game--that ordinary shortshops like Drew would not make.
No, I said it "seemed like" opposing SSs were making 1-2 more plays per game than our SS could make. Then, I said the number is more like 120+ per season, which is about 0.75 per game.
I do not think it is an exaggeration at all. Every year the same SSs make 80-130 more plays than other SSs with about the same innings at SS. I am not certain that Iggy is as great as I have heard he is and as I have seen in a small sample size, but nobody has ever denied his great range. The issue seems to be my projection of Drew as a below average-ranged SS or "average at best" as I have called him. I admit I may be wrong here as I was with Aviles last year.
Again this is very subjective and using #'s that really aren't comparable. If a team like the Yankees or Giants that has a low team ERA and many more K's than say teams like the Rockies or Twins which fielder is going to get a ton more chances? Just because you get more chances doesn't make you a better fielder.
If he is right, the Sox would not even have bothered to get Drew in the offseason.
That's assuming Ben assumes I am right. He could be wrong. I don't think Theo or Ben values great SS range as much as I do. I am not pretending to know more than them or anyone else, but it is my opinion, and I have some facts and data to back it up.
SS should be valued for everything they do on the field not just fielding should be a combination of all fielding / hitting / running / power /etc.. runs saved vs runs produced
If you add the criterion that the exceptional play also saves a run, I think a more realistic number would be no more than 1 or 2 plays a week. I still prefer Iglesias over Drew because to me as a fan great defense is more fun to watch. Plus I do agree the pitchers like to know they are being backed up by a superb SS. Plus it's always great to see a young player come up thru the system.
So, if we assume 1.5 plays per week, that would make it about 40 plays over 162 games. If you added 40 singles to Iggy's offense, it would convert his BA over 500 PAs from this to that:
.200 to .280
.220 to .300
.240 to .320
.260 to .340
.275 to .355
His OBP could go up from...
.260 to .340
.270 to .350
.280 to .360
.290 to .370
.300 to .380
His SLG% also goes up, making his OPS very close if not better than Drew's projected OPS, even with your conservative defensive differential number.
I'd like you and others to watch Iggy closely as he starts for the first few games, and ask yourself, "would Aviles, Scutaro, or Lowrie have made that play?" Count how many you see per game, and let's compare notes after Drew returns.
Like I said, I did this last season with Aviles and stopped counting after April. Mike was much better ranged than I thought he was. I hope Drew is as well.
But this also assumes that Drew never makes a great play so his numbers aren't bumped as well, because he never makes a play that saves a run? Also Drew has had yr's where he has had 76 XBH's in a season Iggy has a total of 38 XBH"s for 3 minor league seasons COMBINED, the total bases alone for  season is ubsurd. In Drew best season @ MLB he had a total of 394 Total Bases, Iggy's best season in the minors is 124 Total Bases . So how many more runs has Drew produced with his Offense vs how many runs will Iggy save with his Defense? Almost 300 Total Bases more for Drew over 162 games is a lot of runs produced! This is why Iggy must improve his Offense, if this were the 03 or 04 teams we could live w/ a good field no hit SS, IMO not on this team we need some production from SS