A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I'm of the opinion that Lester's loss of velocity was a combination of mechanics and an over-reliance on his cutter. He's been consistently able to hit 92-94 if you can believe the Jet Blue gun. I have also got to tell you that I have gotten up close to him, shaken his hand actually, and I can tell you that he is one very large, very strong dude! He's listed at 6'4" and 240 and he is all of that. Not sure how hard or cut he was last year, but he is both right now. I saw him in shorts and a tee shirt (in fact we were both dressed the same) and you could tell he was in great shape! I mean we were both were;)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, I'm of the opinion that Lester's loss of velocity was a combination of mechanics and an over-reliance on his cutter. He's been consistently able to hit 92-94 if you can believe the Jet Blue gun.




    i believe the same thing. not only did he lose velocity but his command was spotty. that points to either injury or a mechanical issue. and since it's pretty clear he is not hurt it must have been a mechanics thing (which Farrell elluded to last season). Good to hear and see that he's tweaked them to regain his old pitching style. As well as toning down his use of the cutter.. it seemed that's all he (and beckett) threw last year

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was reading an article about Andrelton Simmons yesterday, as he was very impressive in the WBC for the Netherlands and it seems that this guy might be the next top SS in the game. Of particular note is that he can throw a 98 mph fastball and was originally drafted as a pitcher. Tremendous fielder. Here is the deal though. They said that last year he had the highest UZR/150 of any mlb level SS who played over 400 innings in the history of that stat being collected ( 11 years ). And he was around 33.4 with a DRS of 19 runs saved in 424 innings. Absolutely incredible.

    But dig this. Last year Iglesias was at a plus 46.5 in 193 innings with 7 runs saved. It's a very small sample size but Iglesias was off the charts great defensively right from the get go.

    I would trade 2 Iglesias's for one Simmons in a heartbeat as Simmons might be the most valuable prospect in baseball this year but Iglesias clearly is still very special. If he hits at all or can even get on base 30% of the time he should be playing.

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Relevent to nothing on here, but what a great time to be in Fort Myers. FGCU fever has gripped the area; that's all you hear about! What's a Red Sox?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I was reading an article about Andrelton Simmons yesterday, as he was very impressive in the WBC for the Netherlands and it seems that this guy might be the next top SS in the game. Of particular note is that he can throw a 98 mph fastball and was originally drafted as a pitcher. Tremendous fielder. Here is the deal though. They said that last year he had the highest UZR/150 of any mlb level SS who played over 400 innings in the history of that stat being collected ( 11 years ). And he was around 33.4 with a DRS of 19 runs saved in 424 innings. Absolutely incredible.

    But dig this. Last year Iglesias was at a plus 46.5 in 193 innings with 7 runs saved. It's a very small sample size but Iglesias was off the charts great defensively right from the get go.

    I would trade 2 Iglesias's for one Simmons in a heartbeat as Simmons might be the most valuable prospect in baseball this year but Iglesias clearly is still very special. If he hits at all or can even get on base 30% of the time he should be playing.

     

     



    I'm never one to judge by small sample sizes, but it's good to see the numbers support my position that Iggy is something special in the field. Maybe we've gone so long without a great ranged SS, that some forgot what a difference make it can be.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.




    and with Morales and Breslow coming back from injuries bullpen depth is good, and for a change rotation not bad either when you consider that Aceves or Morales could provide depth [with depth of bullpen easy to put one of these guys in rotation] and Webster / De La Rosa / or even Barnes at end of year if he pitches well this year. Much better position going into this year than last.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All due respect, but I think moonslav is overstating how many plays Iglesias will make--specfically, 1 or 2 per game--that ordinary shortshops like Drew would not make. 

    No, I said it "seemed like" opposing SSs were making 1-2 more plays per game than our SS could make. Then, I said the number is more like 120+ per season, which is about 0.75 per game.

    I do not think it is an exaggeration at all. Every year the same SSs make 80-130 more plays than other SSs with about the same innings at SS. I am not certain that Iggy is as great as I have heard he is and as I have seen in a small sample size, but nobody has ever denied his great range. The issue seems to be my projection of Drew as a below average-ranged SS or "average at best" as I have called him. I admit I may be wrong here as I was with Aviles last year.

    Again this is very subjective and using #'s that really aren't comparable. If a team like the Yankees or Giants that has a low team ERA and many more K's than say teams like the Rockies or Twins which fielder is going to get a ton more chances? Just because you get more chances doesn't make you a better fielder.

     

    If he is right, the Sox would not even have bothered to get Drew in the offseason.   

    That's assuming Ben assumes I am right. He could be wrong.  I don't think Theo or Ben values great SS range as much as I do. I am not pretending to know more than them or anyone else, but it is my opinion, and I have some facts and data to back it up.

    SS should be valued for everything they do on the field not just fielding should be a combination of all fielding / hitting / running / power /etc.. runs saved vs runs produced

     

     If you add the criterion that the exceptional play also saves a run, I think a more realistic number would be no more than 1 or 2 plays a week.  I still prefer Iglesias over Drew because to me as a fan great defense is more fun to watch.  Plus I do agree the pitchers like to know they are being backed up by a superb SS.   Plus it's always great to see a young player come up thru the system. 

    So, if we assume 1.5 plays per week, that would make it about 40 plays over 162 games. If you added 40 singles to Iggy's offense, it would convert his BA over 500 PAs from this to that:

    .200 to .280

    .220 to .300

    .240 to .320

    .260 to .340

    .275 to .355

    His OBP could go up from...

    .260 to .340

    .270 to .350

    .280 to .360

    .290 to .370

    .300 to .380

    His SLG% also goes up, making his OPS very close if not better than Drew's projected OPS, even with your conservative defensive differential number.

    I'd like you and others to watch Iggy closely as he starts for the first few games, and ask yourself, "would Aviles, Scutaro, or Lowrie have made that play?" Count how many you see per game, and let's compare notes after Drew returns.

    Like I said, I did this last season with Aviles and stopped counting after April. Mike was much better ranged than I thought he was. I hope Drew is as well.

    But this also assumes that Drew never makes a great play so his numbers aren't bumped as well, because he never makes a play that saves a run? Also Drew has had yr's where he has had 76 XBH's in a season Iggy has a total of 38 XBH"s for 3 minor league seasons COMBINED, the total bases alone for [1] season is ubsurd. In Drew best season @ MLB he had a total of 394 Total Bases, Iggy's best season in the minors is 124 Total Bases . So how many more runs has Drew produced with his Offense vs how many runs will Iggy save with his Defense? Almost 300 Total Bases more for Drew over 162 games is a lot of runs produced! This is why Iggy must improve his Offense, if this were the 03 or 04 teams we could live w/ a good field no hit SS, IMO not on this team we need some production from SS

     




     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.

     




     

    and with Morales and Breslow coming back from injuries bullpen depth is good, and for a change rotation not bad either when you consider that Aceves or Morales could provide depth [with depth of bullpen easy to put one of these guys in rotation] and Webster / De La Rosa / or even Barnes at end of year if he pitches well this year. Much better position going into this year than last.



    Our pen certainly could be the strongest in years.  It's also great to finally have some good young SP's and positional players waiting in the wings.  I just wish we still had Gonzo at 1B, or at least a more capable glove than Nap.  Our infield defense should be interesting to watch this season.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.

     




     

    and with Morales and Breslow coming back from injuries bullpen depth is good, and for a change rotation not bad either when you consider that Aceves or Morales could provide depth [with depth of bullpen easy to put one of these guys in rotation] and Webster / De La Rosa / or even Barnes at end of year if he pitches well this year. Much better position going into this year than last.

     



    Our pen certainly could be the strongest in years.  It's also great to finally have some good young SP's and positional players waiting in the wings.  I just wish we still had Gonzo at 1B, or at least a more capable glove than Nap.  Our infield defense should be interesting to watch this season.

     



    I think Napoli will be a pleasant surprise with the glove at first. Not a lot of range, but pretty good hands. The only plays I've seen him struggle with are pop-ups over his head. He dropped one the other day and Pedroia quickly told him that he would get them in the future. Catching the ball from infielders is not as difficult as catching the ball from pitchers, and the glove is more efficient.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.



    Carnie, my reference to not having "deep depth" is in the short term, without Breslow and Morales. I am also hearing and reading lots of noise about dealing either Aceves or Bailey, and we don't have the depth to do that right now. As good as Wilson and de La Torre have looked at times, there is nothing in their history that says they are ready for prime time just yet.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, I'm of the opinion that Lester's loss of velocity was a combination of mechanics and an over-reliance on his cutter. He's been consistently able to hit 92-94 if you can believe the Jet Blue gun. I have also got to tell you that I have gotten up close to him, shaken his hand actually, and I can tell you that he is one very large, very strong dude! He's listed at 6'4" and 240 and he is all of that. Not sure how hard or cut he was last year, but he is both right now. I saw him in shorts and a tee shirt (in fact we were both dressed the same) and you could tell he was in great shape! I mean we were both were;)




    From behind, there is no doubt in my mind that people would have a difficult time distinguishing between the both of you...LOL....side view?...perhaps a different story..:)

    I made the point on a different thread about the evolution of size of pitchers today.  Yes, there were exceptions like Ford, Martinez, Koufax et.al., but overall, the guys today are monsters! I think they have to be for the grind of the season.

    I swear Jid, your 'articles' are so good they really should be published somewhere.  It's been really great.

    It surprises me about Breslow.  I haden't read, but I was under the impression that he really didn't do anything in the offseason to hurt himself.  I wonder what happened?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Relevent to nothing on here, but what a great time to be in Fort Myers. FGCU fever has gripped the area; that's all you hear about! What's a Red Sox?




    Excuse my ignorance...FGCU?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Relevent to nothing on here, but what a great time to be in Fort Myers. FGCU fever has gripped the area; that's all you hear about! What's a Red Sox?

     




     

    Excuse my ignorance...FGCU?



    Florida Gulf Coast Uni. the recent cinderella story in college basketball

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.

     



    Carnie, my reference to not having "deep depth" is in the short term, without Breslow and Morales. I am also hearing and reading lots of noise about dealing either Aceves or Bailey, and we don't have the depth to do that right now. As good as Wilson and de La Torre have looked at times, there is nothing in their history that says they are ready for prime time just yet.

     



    Let's say we trade Bailey, and Morales and Breslow are on the DL for longer than we hope. We'd have this:

    1) Hanrahan

    2) Uehara

    3) Aceves

    4) Miller

    5) Tazawa

    6) Mortensen

    7) Wislon/de la Torre/Webster/Carpenter/Beato

    I agree, the 7th slot is sketchy, but the first 6 look solid. I can see waiting until Breslow returns and looks good before considering a deal with Bailey or Aceves.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Moon, I'm of the opinion that Lester's loss of velocity was a combination of mechanics and an over-reliance on his cutter. He's been consistently able to hit 92-94 if you can believe the Jet Blue gun. I have also got to tell you that I have gotten up close to him, shaken his hand actually, and I can tell you that he is one very large, very strong dude! He's listed at 6'4" and 240 and he is all of that. Not sure how hard or cut he was last year, but he is both right now. I saw him in shorts and a tee shirt (in fact we were both dressed the same) and you could tell he was in great shape! I mean we were both were;)

     




     

    From behind, there is no doubt in my mind that people would have a difficult time distinguishing between the both of you...LOL....side view?...perhaps a different story..:)

    I made the point on a different thread about the evolution of size of pitchers today.  Yes, there were exceptions like Ford, Martinez, Koufax et.al., but overall, the guys today are monsters! I think they have to be for the grind of the season.

    I swear Jid, your 'articles' are so good they really should be published somewhere.  It's been really great.

    It surprises me about Breslow.  I haden't read, but I was under the impression that he really didn't do anything in the offseason to hurt himself.  I wonder what happened?



    Good points. 

    I had high expectations for Breslow this year. I hope he can help.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.

     



    Carnie, my reference to not having "deep depth" is in the short term, without Breslow and Morales. I am also hearing and reading lots of noise about dealing either Aceves or Bailey, and we don't have the depth to do that right now. As good as Wilson and de La Torre have looked at times, there is nothing in their history that says they are ready for prime time just yet.

     

     



    Let's say we trade Bailey, and Morales and Breslow are on the DL for longer than we hope. We'd have this:

     

    1) Hanrahan

    2) Uehara

    3) Aceves

    4) Miller

    5) Tazawa

    6) Mortensen

    7) Wislon/de la Torre/Webster/Carpenter/Beato

    I agree, the 7th slot is sketchy, but the first 6 look solid. I can see waiting until Breslow returns and looks good before considering a deal with Bailey or Aceves.



    plus that extra time it takes Breslow/Morales to get back would give us additional time to showcase bailey/ace/Mortenson

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Alex Wilson is a good depth option I think, Jose de La Torre looked pretty good in the WBC as well.

     



    Carnie, my reference to not having "deep depth" is in the short term, without Breslow and Morales. I am also hearing and reading lots of noise about dealing either Aceves or Bailey, and we don't have the depth to do that right now. As good as Wilson and de La Torre have looked at times, there is nothing in their history that says they are ready for prime time just yet.

     

     



    Let's say we trade Bailey, and Morales and Breslow are on the DL for longer than we hope. We'd have this:

     

    1) Hanrahan

    2) Uehara

    3) Aceves

    4) Miller

    5) Tazawa

    6) Mortensen

    7) Wislon/de la Torre/Webster/Carpenter/Beato

    I agree, the 7th slot is sketchy, but the first 6 look solid. I can see waiting until Breslow returns and looks good before considering a deal with Bailey or Aceves.

     



    plus that extra time it takes Breslow/Morales to get back would give us additional time to showcase bailey/ace/Mortenson

     



    True- assuming they do well in showcase mode.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Today's report from the fort...

    Same old story, good starting pitching! Doubront today went five, allowed a few hits and pitched out of trouble early, but got outs when he needed them and got strike outs when he needed them. The key for him today was that he ounded the strike zone. He has to learn that as long as he does that his stuff is good enough to bail him out. As long as he stays ahead of hitters, like he did today, his swing-and-miss stuff can carry him through. But if he is nibbling and walking guys, that's when he gets into trouble, allows crooked numbers and slows the game to a standstill. For what it's worth, Salty caught him today and there appeared to be a running dialog and body language from Salty to both speed Doubie up and to act as his biggest cheerleader. Good leadership from behind the dish.

    The offense wasn't great but they did get key two-out RBI hits from Napoli in the first and Nava in the second to put them up by two. I joked to the people around me, not for the first time this spring, that Napoli should lead the league in "wall-singles" and getting thrown out at second. I hope I'm wrong, but it's happened a few times already this spring. Two hits from Nava, another hit from Iggy, and two-run hit from Victorino, lead-off hit from Ells and a couple of line-drive outs from him paced the offense. The box score won't show it but they hit the ball solidly all day long.

    The pen was shaky today. Uehara and Miller were perfect but Bailey (unearned) and Hanrahan each gave up runs against single A hitters, albeit with single A defense on the field for the Sox as well. When the game was on the line there were good plays made by Ells. The best defensive plays of the game were made by the Twins' second baseman, robbing both Pedroia and Ells of base hits. Stolen base from Middlebrooks was also a nice surprise. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Today's report from the fort...

    Same old story, good starting pitching! Doubront today went five, allowed a few hits and pitched out of trouble early, but got outs when he needed them and got strike outs when he needed them. The key for him today was that he ounded the strike zone. He has to learn that as long as he does that his stuff is good enough to bail him out. As long as he stays ahead of hitters, like he did today, his swing-and-miss stuff can carry him through. But if he is nibbling and walking guys, that's when he gets into trouble, allows crooked numbers and slows the game to a standstill. For what it's worth, Salty caught him today and there appeared to be a running dialog and body language from Salty to both speed Doubie up and to act as his biggest cheerleader. Good leadership from behind the dish.

    The offense wasn't great but they did get key two-out RBI hits from Napoli in the first and Nava in the second to put them up by two. I joked to the people around me, not for the first time this spring, that Napoli should lead the league in "wall-singles" and getting thrown out at second. I hope I'm wrong, but it's happened a few times already this spring. Two hits from Nava, another hit from Iggy, and two-run hit from Victorino, lead-off hit from Ells and a couple of line-drive outs from him paced the offense. The box score won't show it but they hit the ball solidly all day long.

    The pen was shaky today. Uehara and Miller were perfect but Bailey (unearned) and Hanrahan each gave up runs against single A hitters, albeit with single A defense on the field for the Sox as well. When the game was on the line there were good plays made by Ells. The best defensive plays of the game were made by the Twins' second baseman, robbing both Pedroia and Ells of base hits. Stolen base from Middlebrooks was also a nice surprise. 



    Thanks for all your updates this spring. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Today's report from the fort...

    Same old story, good starting pitching! Doubront today went five, allowed a few hits and pitched out of trouble early, but got outs when he needed them and got strike outs when he needed them. The key for him today was that he ounded the strike zone. He has to learn that as long as he does that his stuff is good enough to bail him out. As long as he stays ahead of hitters, like he did today, his swing-and-miss stuff can carry him through. But if he is nibbling and walking guys, that's when he gets into trouble, allows crooked numbers and slows the game to a standstill. For what it's worth, Salty caught him today and there appeared to be a running dialog and body language from Salty to both speed Doubie up and to act as his biggest cheerleader. Good leadership from behind the dish.

    The offense wasn't great but they did get key two-out RBI hits from Napoli in the first and Nava in the second to put them up by two. I joked to the people around me, not for the first time this spring, that Napoli should lead the league in "wall-singles" and getting thrown out at second. I hope I'm wrong, but it's happened a few times already this spring. Two hits from Nava, another hit from Iggy, and two-run hit from Victorino, lead-off hit from Ells and a couple of line-drive outs from him paced the offense. The box score won't show it but they hit the ball solidly all day long.

    The pen was shaky today. Uehara and Miller were perfect but Bailey (unearned) and Hanrahan each gave up runs against single A hitters, albeit with single A defense on the field for the Sox as well. When the game was on the line there were good plays made by Ells. The best defensive plays of the game were made by the Twins' second baseman, robbing both Pedroia and Ells of base hits. Stolen base from Middlebrooks was also a nice surprise. 



    i thought of you when i saw the wall-ball single (turned out trying to stretch it into a double). In his defense, i'm sure he was expecting to only get a single with how hard he hit that ball so he wasn't running full speed. But once the OF'er botched the play off the wall he thought he could stretch it and turned on the jets. It didn't work out. If he was thinking double the whole way i have no doubt he would have made it to second safely with the fielding error.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    What jets???

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    What jets???



    it was a metaphor.. running hard*

    he was trotting to first base not expecting to have a chance at second then when the fielder misplayed the ball off the wall he "sprinted" to second. I think if he was running the whole way he would've made it IMO.

    but your right, he definitely will have the most wall-ball singles on the team (maybe Papi will give him a run for his money).

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, I don't know if you are in great shape but your reports have been in great shape, so I won't be picky.  Really fun (and lucky for us) to have someone with your eye right there.  Thanks again.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid,   A sincere thanks for all the great information that you shared with us.  It took effort and insight.

    I regret that circumstances altered our plans to go to spring training. 

    By the way, I know you said that the 2nd baseman robbed a few of our guys of hits.  Yet, the innings I saw, it seemed that a few balls that got through should have been caught.

     
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