A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    jid, I was honored you chose this thread for your insightful reports. Many many thanks.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I was reading an article about Andrelton Simmons yesterday, as he was very impressive in the WBC for the Netherlands and it seems that this guy might be the next top SS in the game. Of particular note is that he can throw a 98 mph fastball and was originally drafted as a pitcher. Tremendous fielder. Here is the deal though. They said that last year he had the highest UZR/150 of any mlb level SS who played over 400 innings in the history of that stat being collected ( 11 years ). And he was around 33.4 with a DRS of 19 runs saved in 424 innings. Absolutely incredible.

    But dig this. Last year Iglesias was at a plus 46.5 in 193 innings with 7 runs saved. It's a very small sample size but Iglesias was off the charts great defensively right from the get go.

    I would trade 2 Iglesias's for one Simmons in a heartbeat as Simmons might be the most valuable prospect in baseball this year but Iglesias clearly is still very special. If he hits at all or can even get on base 30% of the time he should be playing.

     

     

     



    I'm never one to judge by small sample sizes, but it's good to see the numbers support my position that Iggy is something special in the field. Maybe we've gone so long without a great ranged SS, that some forgot what a difference make it can be.

     



    Moon, I agree. I'm surprised more people didn't comment on this. Simmons sets the record for SS  UZR/150 at 33.4 and Iglesias comes in roughly 25% BETTER than the record, albeit with a smaller sample size. As much as people rave about Iglesias's fielding; i.e. one scout said "best hands I've ever seen", he may actually be underated defensively. I like his ability to throw from a variety of off balance positions. His quick hands and his fluidity are what stand out to me. He appears to have taken a ton of ground balls growing up. His dad was a professional baseball player also in Cuba, who had a very solid reputation. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Jid,   A sincere thanks for all the great information that you shared with us.  It took effort and insight.

    I regret that circumstances altered our plans to go to spring training. 

    By the way, I know you said that the 2nd baseman robbed a few of our guys of hits.  Yet, the innings I saw, it seemed that a few balls that got through should have been caught.



    Victorino's "hit" was definitely a gift, as was Ellsbury's in the first inning. So things did even out as he committed two robberies as well. Happy Easter!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Most ESPN, FOX and MLB experts are picking the Blue Jays and Rays in the AL East which is fine with me. 

    No pressure for the Red Sox. Stay healthy and play hard are what I want from them.  If the 2012 A's and O's surprised everyone in 2012 then why not the Red Sox in 2013?  

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Spring Training review continued...position players

    Catchers...might as well start with my favorite position. Overall this position has evolved into one of the strengths of the team. The addition of Ross bolsters the defense and brings a Veritek-like presence/role model for the younger catchers.

    Salty...had a great spring at the plate; he feasts on mediocre to poor pitching. ( Who doesn't?) He did show more plate discipline but we will still have to live with lots of K's. His defense seems better, he was quick to throw behind runners more this spring although not always with great accuracy, but still has occasional lapses in concentration that result in passed balls. On a very positive note, he seemed much more vocal and in command of his pitchers this spring.

    Ross...He will certainly trigger some CERA discussions this season as his track record indicates that he knows how to handle pitchers and call a great game. He has a strong arm and quick release. His bat, however, has been non-existent for most of the spring. In his defense he is probably focusing on learning a new pitching staff and assuming that the offense will be there when it's time. He will strike out a lot and look pretty bad in the process, but we didn't sign him for his bat. I do hope that Farrell uses him based on who is pitching for the other team, that is mostly against lefties, rather than him becoming anyone's personal catcher.

    Lavarnway...very disappointing. He didn't hit and he didn't catch all that well. He's a very big kid and his hands and footwork seem too slow and cumbersome, like it takes him too long to get unwound. He should get plenty of innings at AAA but he is more than likely going to be passed by at catcher unless he shows dramatic improvement. And obviously, if he can't catch he has to hit a ton to justify his place on any roster going forward.

    Vasquez...he could be the catcher of the future! A fireplug of a body, greaat arm and very fast release; I think he ended ST with a perfect caught stealing percentage. He will also throw behind runners, even to second base, with great effectiveness. He hit okay, with a little pop, but was always a late inning guy so only saw minor-league pitching. With regular work at Portland he will zoom by Lavarnway this year on the depth chart. 

    Others...saw a little of Swihart and while I like his bat (singles hitter) he is pretty small for a MLB catcher. He and Vasquez are the same age so I'm not sure where he will fit in long term. Butler is the other guy who seems headed for AAA to back up Lavarnway. Not sure what anyone sees in him in the organization.

    Overall the position looks strong with Salty and Ross likely to be above average offensively, although with lots of strike-outs, and pretty close to or slightly better than average defensively. The pitching staff seems to be working much more quickly, both in between pitches and in delivery time to the plate so we shouldn't give up nearly as many stolen bases as in years past. Also solid depth with Lavarnway for short-term and Vasquez knocking on the door as a regular by this time next year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Spring training review continued...Infielders

    Health is the key as both Pedroia and Middlebrooks are returning from injury-plagued seasons. Ironically it was the health of the new shortstop, Drew, that opened the door to one of spring training's most pleasant surprises. 

    Napoli...he has looked much better than I expected at first base, good hands, a willingness to dive for balls and only seemed to struggle on pop-ups behind him. He will not remind anyone of Gonzo with the glove, but he will not embarrass himself there either. He will hit, especially at Fenway, if he stays healthy and gets his at bats. Great eye and a quick stroke. He will hit lots of wall-ball singles and balls that would be home runs in other parks that will only be singles in Boston. He should produce a lot of runs in the middle of this order.

    Pedroia...quite simply the best player on the team and a joy to watch play every phase of the game. I would bet that he played more spring training innings than any other MLB regular as he just never seems to want to come out of a game. I don't necessarily like him in the three hole, but that's where he apparently will be until (if) Papi gets back. This is clearly "his" team now and he is surrounded by hard-nosed players who play like him.

    Iglesias..one of the most pleasant surprises of the spring was the emergence of his fairly respectable bat. First of all, he doesn't even look like the same skinny kid who played short here at the end of last year; he's probably 10 pounds heavier, all in the arms and shoulders. His defense is jaw-dropping at times, and he has the ability to make great plays look routine. I would not want to be the person who has to decide what to do with him when Drew returns, but for the many on here who think he needs more time in AAA because he hasn't earned the starting job yet, you simply need to watch him play. He and Pedey are right now the best keystone combo in baseball and will only get better as they work more together.

    Middlebrooks...He has been a monster this spring. Once upon a time I thought that long-term he would have to move over to first to accomodate Boegearts (sp?) but he looks like a very solid MLB third baseman. His arm is too good to waste at first and he showed much more range than I remember from last year. I know that he is young and is likely to have to learn to make adjustments as pitchers adjust to him, but he should be a middle of the order mainstay for years. He will hit close to 30 bombs and knock in over 100 runs if this spring is any indication!

    Ciriaco...at the start of ST it looked like he might be in a battle with Holt for the back-up infielder role. He made that competition a mismatch from the start. Last ST he was the best player in the camp, and while he can't say that this year, he still showed that Farrell should have no hesitation to rest any of his regular infielders as he can hit, has some pop, and can run and field.

    Drew...obviously didn't see too much of him but I liked what I did see on defense. On offense, he looks like his brother, a patient (his brother was TOO patient) hitter with decent power for an infielder. However, I would try to find another home for him because Iggy would be my shortstop.

    Holt...although Ciriaco blew him away for the back-up job, Holt showed me that we have very adequate depth just a phone call away. He's a good hitter, but with no power, and a pretty good defensive player. Much better at second than anyplace else. but solid insurance.

    Carp...he must have pictures of Ben, Larry or somebody to have "won" a spot on the roster. 

    others...Gomez started out strong but as soon as it bacame apparent that Ortiz was not going to be ready and a "real" job might open up, Gomez folded. He hit well last year (MVP at AAA) when the late season games were meaningless, but... And make no mistake about it, this guy is a DH only! Nava (more on him when I write about outfielders) played an adequate first base early while they were waiting on Napoli and seems to me to be a much better solution than the fish. I didn't see much of Boegearts but you can tell that the ball jumps off his bat. Very young abd raw though, and his future could be anywhere from first to third to left field. I saw flashes from some of the younger infielders, the most impressive of which was Heiker Menesis.

    Is this a playoff caliber infield? I don't know. But with Iggy and Pedey we are terrific up the middle; one key to a playoff team. We have power bats at the corners, another key. And we have a great offensive middle-infielder in Pedroia, a bonus on most teams. We have a solid backup in Ciriaco. But we will also most likely have a controversy when Drew is ready. My choice, as it has been for a couple years now, is for Iggy to be my shortstop. That is not a knock on Drew, simply my assessment of what makes this a better team. If the situation calls for it Farrell can always pinch-hit Nava late for Iggy and put Ciriaco in his place, but Iggy would be my guy. I do know this, last year's biggest weakness, our starting pitching, immediately gets better with Iggy and Pedey in the middle.  

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Spring Training review continued...position players

    Catchers...might as well start with my favorite position. Overall this position has evolved into one of the strengths of the team. The addition of Ross bolsters the defense and brings a Veritek-like presence/role model for the younger catchers.

    Salty...had a great spring at the plate; he feasts on mediocre to poor pitching. ( Who doesn't?) He did show more plate discipline but we will still have to live with lots of K's. His defense seems better, he was quick to throw behind runners more this spring although not always with great accuracy, but still has occasional lapses in concentration that result in passed balls. On a very positive note, he seemed much more vocal and in command of his pitchers this spring.

    Ross...He will certainly trigger some CERA discussions this season as his track record indicates that he knows how to handle pitchers and call a great game. He has a strong arm and quick release. His bat, however, has been non-existent for most of the spring. In his defense he is probably focusing on learning a new pitching staff and assuming that the offense will be there when it's time. He will strike out a lot and look pretty bad in the process, but we didn't sign him for his bat. I do hope that Farrell uses him based on who is pitching for the other team, that is mostly against lefties, rather than him becoming anyone's personal catcher.

    Lavarnway...very disappointing. He didn't hit and he didn't catch all that well. He's a very big kid and his hands and footwork seem too slow and cumbersome, like it takes him too long to get unwound. He should get plenty of innings at AAA but he is more than likely going to be passed by at catcher unless he shows dramatic improvement. And obviously, if he can't catch he has to hit a ton to justify his place on any roster going forward.

    Vasquez...he could be the catcher of the future! A fireplug of a body, greaat arm and very fast release; I think he ended ST with a perfect caught stealing percentage. He will also throw behind runners, even to second base, with great effectiveness. He hit okay, with a little pop, but was always a late inning guy so only saw minor-league pitching. With regular work at Portland he will zoom by Lavarnway this year on the depth chart. 

    Others...saw a little of Swihart and while I like his bat (singles hitter) he is pretty small for a MLB catcher. He and Vasquez are the same age so I'm not sure where he will fit in long term. Butler is the other guy who seems headed for AAA to back up Lavarnway. Not sure what anyone sees in him in the organization.

    Overall the position looks strong with Salty and Ross likely to be above average offensively, although with lots of strike-outs, and pretty close to or slightly better than average defensively. The pitching staff seems to be working much more quickly, both in between pitches and in delivery time to the plate so we shouldn't give up nearly as many stolen bases as in years past. Also solid depth with Lavarnway for short-term and Vasquez knocking on the door as a regular by this time next year.



    It's been a long time since we had a strong AND deep catching position.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Spring training review continued...Infielders

    Health is the key as both Pedroia and Middlebrooks are returning from injury-plagued seasons. Ironically it was the health of the new shortstop, Drew, that opened the door to one of spring training's most pleasant surprises. 

    Napoli...he has looked much better than I expected at first base, good hands, a willingness to dive for balls and only seemed to struggle on pop-ups behind him. He will not remind anyone of Gonzo with the glove, but he will not embarrass himself there either. He will hit, especially at Fenway, if he stays healthy and gets his at bats. Great eye and a quick stroke. He will hit lots of wall-ball singles and balls that would be home runs in other parks that will only be singles in Boston. He should produce a lot of runs in the middle of this order.

    Pedroia...quite simply the best player on the team and a joy to watch play every phase of the game. I would bet that he played more spring training innings than any other MLB regular as he just never seems to want to come out of a game. I don't necessarily like him in the three hole, but that's where he apparently will be until (if) Papi gets back. This is clearly "his" team now and he is surrounded by hard-nosed players who play like him.

    Iglesias..one of the most pleasant surprises of the spring was the emergence of his fairly respectable bat. First of all, he doesn't even look like the same skinny kid who played short here at the end of last year; he's probably 10 pounds heavier, all in the arms and shoulders. His defense is jaw-dropping at times, and he has the ability to make great plays look routine. I would not want to be the person who has to decide what to do with him when Drew returns, but for the many on here who think he needs more time in AAA because he hasn't earned the starting job yet, you simply need to watch him play. He and Pedey are right now the best keystone combo in baseball and will only get better as they work more together.

    Middlebrooks...He has been a monster this spring. Once upon a time I thought that long-term he would have to move over to first to accomodate Boegearts (sp?) but he looks like a very solid MLB third baseman. His arm is too good to waste at first and he showed much more range than I remember from last year. I know that he is young and is likely to have to learn to make adjustments as pitchers adjust to him, but he should be a middle of the order mainstay for years. He will hit close to 30 bombs and knock in over 100 runs if this spring is any indication!

    Ciriaco...at the start of ST it looked like he might be in a battle with Holt for the back-up infielder role. He made that competition a mismatch from the start. Last ST he was the best player in the camp, and while he can't say that this year, he still showed that Farrell should have no hesitation to rest any of his regular infielders as he can hit, has some pop, and can run and field.

    Drew...obviously didn't see too much of him but I liked what I did see on defense. On offense, he looks like his brother, a patient (his brother was TOO patient) hitter with decent power for an infielder. However, I would try to find another home for him because Iggy would be my shortstop.

    Holt...although Ciriaco blew him away for the back-up job, Holt showed me that we have very adequate depth just a phone call away. He's a good hitter, but with no power, and a pretty good defensive player. Much better at second than anyplace else. but solid insurance.

    Carp...he must have pictures of Ben, Larry or somebody to have "won" a spot on the roster. 

    others...Gomez started out strong but as soon as it bacame apparent that Ortiz was not going to be ready and a "real" job might open up, Gomez folded. He hit well last year (MVP at AAA) when the late season games were meaningless, but... And make no mistake about it, this guy is a DH only! Nava (more on him when I write about outfielders) played an adequate first base early while they were waiting on Napoli and seems to me to be a much better solution than the fish. I didn't see much of Boegearts but you can tell that the ball jumps off his bat. Very young abd raw though, and his future could be anywhere from first to third to left field. I saw flashes from some of the younger infielders, the most impressive of which was Heiker Menesis.

    Is this a playoff caliber infield? I don't know. But with Iggy and Pedey we are terrific up the middle; one key to a playoff team. We have power bats at the corners, another key. And we have a great offensive middle-infielder in Pedroia, a bonus on most teams. We have a solid backup in Ciriaco. But we will also most likely have a controversy when Drew is ready. My choice, as it has been for a couple years now, is for Iggy to be my shortstop. That is not a knock on Drew, simply my assessment of what makes this a better team. If the situation calls for it Farrell can always pinch-hit Nava late for Iggy and put Ciriaco in his place, but Iggy would be my guy. I do know this, last year's biggest weakness, our starting pitching, immediately gets better with Iggy and Pedey in the middle.  



    I mentioned moving Bogaerts to 1B instead of Middlebrooks. Few agreed. My guess is that one will be at 1B by 2015 at the latest.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I was reading an article about Andrelton Simmons yesterday, as he was very impressive in the WBC for the Netherlands and it seems that this guy might be the next top SS in the game. Of particular note is that he can throw a 98 mph fastball and was originally drafted as a pitcher. Tremendous fielder. Here is the deal though. They said that last year he had the highest UZR/150 of any mlb level SS who played over 400 innings in the history of that stat being collected ( 11 years ). And he was around 33.4 with a DRS of 19 runs saved in 424 innings. Absolutely incredible.

    But dig this. Last year Iglesias was at a plus 46.5 in 193 innings with 7 runs saved. It's a very small sample size but Iglesias was off the charts great defensively right from the get go.

    I would trade 2 Iglesias's for one Simmons in a heartbeat as Simmons might be the most valuable prospect in baseball this year but Iglesias clearly is still very special. If he hits at all or can even get on base 30% of the time he should be playing.

     

     

     



    I'm never one to judge by small sample sizes, but it's good to see the numbers support my position that Iggy is something special in the field. Maybe we've gone so long without a great ranged SS, that some forgot what a difference make it can be.

     

     



    Moon, I agree. I'm surprised more people didn't comment on this. Simmons sets the record for SS  UZR/150 at 33.4 and Iglesias comes in roughly 25% BETTER than the record, albeit with a smaller sample size. As much as people rave about Iglesias's fielding; i.e. one scout said "best hands I've ever seen", he may actually be underated defensively. I like his ability to throw from a variety of off balance positions. His quick hands and his fluidity are what stand out to me. He appears to have taken a ton of ground balls growing up. His dad was a professional baseball player also in Cuba, who had a very solid reputation. 

     



    I feel I have been conservative with my estimated plays made differential between Iggy and Drew, mostly based on not really knowing first hand how goo, mediocre, or poor ranged Drew is; however, Iggy could indeed be even better than anyone projects.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm inclined to agree the infield overall is a plus because Middlebrooks, Pedroia, and Napoli are also good hitters.  I don't agree Iglesias would save a bunch of runs every year because that's really hard to prove, but I would prefer to start him right now over anyone else, especially Drew.  I think pitching and hitting are the prose of baseball, but that defense is the poetry, and right now this team could be very poetic indeed with those guys in the infield and Bradley, Ellsbury, and Victorino in the outfield.  Certainly the pitchers have to feel good about the defense. 

    Agree too catching is a plus.  Getting Ross was a smart move.

    Right now my "realistic assessment" is the Sox are a .500 club and a big improvement over last year--before Ortiz comes back.  They have pitching, fielding, and some hitting.  I say "some" because they were dead last in MLB in ST in dingers and third from the bottom in OPS. 

    mlb.com has a team defensive stat called DER, which I think is a rough calculation of range, and the Sox were ranked #1 in the AL for ST. 

    Back of the envelope:  good pitch, good field, no hit. 

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    As to Iggy, I'll repeat what I read in the paper (Mercury News) from some baseball scout out here--"The Red Sox don't know what they got."

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    jid, I was honored you chose this thread for your insightful reports. Many many thanks.

     

     



    With rare exceptions this is the only thread I visit. I have no tolerance for the childishness on the other threads. This is a baseball forum afterall. Good job policing it Moon.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Max, great use of prose in your poetic analysis!

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I think Max is making an important point about the team defense, which is measured with many different metrics but I would think that both in errors allowed and in range for example, we should have a well above average defense. Especially if Iglesias is the SS. If not, we are probably projecting around average, particularly in regard to range.

    The contributions of OF defense is a big part of that if Bradley is solidly in that mix along with Victorino. A huge factor. OF defense is particularly important in stopping XBH, which is a big factor don't you think in stopping big innings. Even stopping an average of an extra 10 plays per season each would be huge and a Bradley / Ellsbury / Victorino OF should do that if you look at them realistically. Each should be able to post a Plus 10 UZR/150 at their positions. That, and his ability to hit LH pitching, make it almost a no brainer to slot Bradley as a regular player. Hopefully he will continue to produce but of course we can't expect that from a rookie. But can we expect that from anyone else in the OF either besides Ellsbury?

    I'm a realistic Pollyanna. To me it is realistic to expect an above .500 season but the impact of even some health improvement, a little better results in close games ( team chemistry iimprovement? ), the potential emergence of Middlebrooks, Iglesias and Bradley as major contributors on this team and most importantly, continued improvement in pitching and this team could make the playoffs. A lot of ifs but don't we see that this is potential by now?

    No team is perfect. It doesn't take a lot of variance from the mean to be a winning team in baseball especially if the pitching is strong and the overall defense is well above average. This team is going to be a top 5 offense in this league. We just need to pitch well also and defend. I think we have a chance. 

    I'm projecting 90 wins. Pollyanna! Go Polly!

    Ya Gotta Believe!

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I just think there is almost no chance for Bogaerts to be a 1st baseman any time soon. Maybe in his late 30's. The kid is athletic as heck and probably will be brought up as a SS. If he is anywhere near average defensively he probably is a potential all star with his bat. We are looking at a near Mike Trout type level bat. Not that good of course but the potential to be in the same conversation. And he can play SS?

    My God, why put him at 1st? He should be able to hold down 3rd and be at least average defensively or be a corner OF. He has decent wheels.

    Bogaerts may never make the transition to mlb level pitching. He is by no means a slam dunk but those ISO ratings at such a young age are what put him in the near Mike Trout conversation. I have no idea if he makes the transition but to me is is probably a better overall prospect to Hanley Ramirez at least in regard to his minor league indications. He could of course completely flop but early indications are tremendous. If he develops anywhere near his potential he will be a major contributor, and everyone says he is a positive, hard working kid. Combine solid intangibles with his obvious native physical talent and he is a potential superstar. We need to be careful with him though. He is too valuable to risk.

    Next year will be absolutely huge for that kid. He will struggle some but if he continues to progress as he has in the past people right here on this forum will want to slot him somewhere in the lineup by year end. I know that is unlikely, as he is so raw, and I project his developmet path actually does slow down a lot this year but if that kid continues to tear it up people will be clamoring for him to be with the big club by year end.

    And he is still very raw and very young. He's not JBJ.

    We just haven't had multiple top prospects like these in the minors since maybe the 1915 era or so. Yeah, to me that is the situation. Better than the Rice / Lynn years? Maybe. Better than Ellsbury/Buchholz? Maybe. Throw in the overall depth of great young talent with Bogaerts/ Swihart/Owens/Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes/Bradley/Iglesias/Cechinni...etc. and this team has an underated farm IMO. We will see. I'm excited for the future.

    I also think the Farrell signing is kind of similar to Belichick's situation. A key component for this overall mix in terms of running the operation but also in evaluating talent and developing talent. He's a 2nd GM.  He may need a really strong bench coach ( I don't know ) but he is a great guy to have in the organization and I think he will do well.  

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Final positional player reviews...outfielders. A starting outfield of Bradley, Ellsbury and Victorino could well be the best defensive outfield in MLB. Whether or not Victorino can hit enough for a corner outfielder remains to be seen, but any outfield that features three centerfielders can really run balls down.

    Bradley Jr....have to start with the talk of the camp; quite simply he has been the best player on the team this spring! If he does stay in AAA to start the season (to protect his free-agent clock) or does it after Ortiz returns, once here for good he will be a fan-favorite for years to come. He hits the ball hard with gap power. He has great plate discipline but he will strike out as most hitters who work counts will do. He will hit more home runs on the road than at fenway be he will tattoo the wall for doubles. He hits lefties as well as righties. It seems a waste to play him in left in Fenway but he probably doesn't yet have the cache to displace eight-digit-dollar outfielders yet. When Ellsbury came up I remember thinking we have never had a player like him in my memory. Bradley Jr. looks to be everything I thought Ellsbury would become and then some. Before his days are done he will win batting titles and gold gloves and maybe grow into 15-20 HR per year power, perfect in the leadoff or three hole in your lineup. And watching him break on balls in the outfield is a joy. He did have a couple errors in ST so there is still some growing and better concentration needed.

    Ellsbury...He woke up about ten days ago and started playing like the guy he should be, getting on base, hitting to left, turning singles into doubles and playing a great center field. I can't help but think he's gone after this year (Bradley's maturity makes it even more certain) but what a joy it would be to have both him and Bradley roaming the outfield and top of the order for years to come. His arm is still awful and he is not attempting too many steals, but I think he'll run more once the bell rings on Monday. As for his power, I think he's almost more effective in this lineup with 12-15 homers and a higher OBP. But homers to right at Jet Blue are rare indeed as the winds howl in so the park plays even longer than the longest RF in the AL.

    Victorino...didn't see as much of him as I would have liked because of the WBC but what I did see warrants a mixed review. Defensively he's very good; tracks balls very well, good speed still and he has a very good and accurate arm. Offensively he is two very different hitters and I'm not sure if this has always been the case or not. Right-handed he drives the ball and will wear out the wall and hit a few bombs over it, but left-handed he is a slap hitter trying to beat out infield hits to the ledt side; at least that's what I've seen this spring. He's an outstanding base runner with good speed still and seems like a guy who enjoys the game and plays hard all the time.

    Gomes...has hit with much more consistency than I expected. Obviously he has power but he has shown a willingness to slap singles to right in RBI situations if he gets pitched away. He has also been running on hit-and-runs and is a much better baserunner than I thought. He is probably best suited for DH and will get most of his time there before Ortiz is ready, but will put up pretty big HR and RBI numbers if gets 400 or more ABs. His defense is poor at best; he can be hidden in left at home but in bigger ballparks he will be a liability.

    Nava...It's hard not to like this kid. He's had a good spring, even hitting right-handed better than I expected. He has become an adequate outfielder, best suited for left field, and the way he grinds out at bats could be a valuable pinch-hitter for Iglesias if we are behind late. He was also impressive in limited time filling in for Napoli at first. Gotta love a guy who seems as if he'd do anything to help the team. Not for nothing, but I met him in person and he was very kind and took time to talk to my wheel-chair bound father-in-law. A good way to win points with me.

    Carp...as I wrote on the infielder review I don't know how he made the team. He hasn't hit, he's a weak outfielder at best and Sweeney, who also didn't hit, is a much better outfielder and wouldn't have cost us any compensation to Seattle. Maybe Carp is only here while Ortiz recuperates??

    Others...Of the kids I saw, Linares has some pop and a strong arm but is slow-footed and not much of a defender. Hazelbaker looks like the best all round outfielder of the group. I never saw Brentz, unfortunately. Of the other invitees, Maier was a solid player but only factors in as deep depth and is not young enough to be a prospect anymore. Among the very young, a guy named Bermudez (sp?) was pretty impressive in limited time.

    Is this a playoff-bound outfield? Defensively with Ells between Bradley and Victorino it is. But offensively where are the home runs going to come from? Gomes will hit more than 20 if he gets 400 ABs. The other three may not hit 20 between them. Both Bradley and Ellsbury are capable of hitting .300 and getting on base and making things happen. Victorino is a wild-card. If he can get close to his old Philly production then this outfield can contend.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I just think there is almost no chance for Bogaerts to be a 1st baseman any time soon. Maybe in his late 30's. The kid is athletic as heck and probably will be brought up as a SS. If he is anywhere near average defensively he probably is a potential all star with his bat. We are looking at a near Mike Trout type level bat. Not that good of course but the potential to be in the same conversation. And he can play SS?

    My God, why put him at 1st? He should be able to hold down 3rd and be at least average defensively or be a corner OF. He has decent wheels.

    If he's a better fielder at 3B than Middlebrooks, the we move Midds to 1B or trade him.

     

    Bogaerts may never make the transition to mlb level pitching. He is by no means a slam dunk but those ISO ratings at such a young age are what put him in the near Mike Trout conversation. I have no idea if he makes the transition but to me is is probably a better overall prospect to Hanley Ramirez at least in regard to his minor league indications. He could of course completely flop but early indications are tremendous. If he develops anywhere near his potential he will be a major contributor, and everyone says he is a positive, hard working kid. Combine solid intangibles with his obvious native physical talent and he is a potential superstar. We need to be careful with him though. He is too valuable to risk.

    Next year will be absolutely huge for that kid. He will struggle some but if he continues to progress as he has in the past people right here on this forum will want to slot him somewhere in the lineup by year end. I know that is unlikely, as he is so raw, and I project his developmet path actually does slow down a lot this year but if that kid continues to tear it up people will be clamoring for him to be with the big club by year end.

    And he is still very raw and very young. He's not JBJ.

    People thought JBJ was raw just months ago.

     

    We just haven't had multiple top prospects like these in the minors since maybe the 1915 era or so. Yeah, to me that is the situation. Better than the Rice / Lynn years? Maybe. Better than Ellsbury/Buchholz? Maybe. Throw in the overall depth of great young talent with Bogaerts/ Swihart/Owens/Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes/Bradley/Iglesias/Cechinni...etc. and this team has an underated farm IMO. We will see. I'm excited for the future.

    I also think the Farrell signing is kind of similar to Belichick's situation. A key component for this overall mix in terms of running the operation but also in evaluating talent and developing talent. He's a 2nd GM.  He may need a really strong bench coach ( I don't know ) but he is a great guy to have in the organization and I think he will do well.  

    I hope so.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Final positional player reviews...outfielders. A starting outfield of Bradley, Ellsbury and Victorino could well be the best defensive outfield in MLB. Whether or not Victorino can hit enough for a corner outfielder remains to be seen, but any outfield that features three centerfielders can really run balls down.

    Bradley Jr....have to start with the talk of the camp; quite simply he has been the best player on the team this spring! If he does stay in AAA to start the season (to protect his free-agent clock) or does it after Ortiz returns, once here for good he will be a fan-favorite for years to come. He hits the ball hard with gap power. He has great plate discipline but he will strike out as most hitters who work counts will do. He will hit more home runs on the road than at fenway be he will tattoo the wall for doubles. He hits lefties as well as righties. It seems a waste to play him in left in Fenway but he probably doesn't yet have the cache to displace eight-digit-dollar outfielders yet. When Ellsbury came up I remember thinking we have never had a player like him in my memory. Bradley Jr. looks to be everything I thought Ellsbury would become and then some. Before his days are done he will win batting titles and gold gloves and maybe grow into 15-20 HR per year power, perfect in the leadoff or three hole in your lineup. And watching him break on balls in the outfield is a joy. He did have a couple errors in ST so there is still some growing and better concentration needed.

    Ellsbury...He woke up about ten days ago and started playing like the guy he should be, getting on base, hitting to left, turning singles into doubles and playing a great center field. I can't help but think he's gone after this year (Bradley's maturity makes it even more certain) but what a joy it would be to have both him and Bradley roaming the outfield and top of the order for years to come. His arm is still awful and he is not attempting too many steals, but I think he'll run more once the bell rings on Monday. As for his power, I think he's almost more effective in this lineup with 12-15 homers and a higher OBP. But homers to right at Jet Blue are rare indeed as the winds howl in so the park plays even longer than the longest RF in the AL.

    Victorino...didn't see as much of him as I would have liked because of the WBC but what I did see warrants a mixed review. Defensively he's very good; tracks balls very well, good speed still and he has a very good and accurate arm. Offensively he is two very different hitters and I'm not sure if this has always been the case or not. Right-handed he drives the ball and will wear out the wall and hit a few bombs over it, but left-handed he is a slap hitter trying to beat out infield hits to the ledt side; at least that's what I've seen this spring. He's an outstanding base runner with good speed still and seems like a guy who enjoys the game and plays hard all the time.

    Gomes...has hit with much more consistency than I expected. Obviously he has power but he has shown a willingness to slap singles to right in RBI situations if he gets pitched away. He has also been running on hit-and-runs and is a much better baserunner than I thought. He is probably best suited for DH and will get most of his time there before Ortiz is ready, but will put up pretty big HR and RBI numbers if gets 400 or more ABs. His defense is poor at best; he can be hidden in left at home but in bigger ballparks he will be a liability.

    Nava...It's hard not to like this kid. He's had a good spring, even hitting right-handed better than I expected. He has become an adequate outfielder, best suited for left field, and the way he grinds out at bats could be a valuable pinch-hitter for Iglesias if we are behind late. He was also impressive in limited time filling in for Napoli at first. Gotta love a guy who seems as if he'd do anything to help the team. Not for nothing, but I met him in person and he was very kind and took time to talk to my wheel-chair bound father-in-law. A good way to win points with me.

    Carp...as I wrote on the infielder review I don't know how he made the team. He hasn't hit, he's a weak outfielder at best and Sweeney, who also didn't hit, is a much better outfielder and wouldn't have cost us any compensation to Seattle. Maybe Carp is only here while Ortiz recuperates??

    Others...Of the kids I saw, Linares has some pop and a strong arm but is slow-footed and not much of a defender. Hazelbaker looks like the best all round outfielder of the group. I never saw Brentz, unfortunately. Of the other invitees, Maier was a solid player but only factors in as deep depth and is not young enough to be a prospect anymore. Among the very young, a guy named Bermudez (sp?) was pretty impressive in limited time.

    Is this a playoff-bound outfield? Defensively with Ells between Bradley and Victorino it is. But offensively where are the home runs going to come from? Gomes will hit more than 20 if he gets 400 ABs. The other three may not hit 20 between them. Both Bradley and Ellsbury are capable of hitting .300 and getting on base and making things happen. Victorino is a wild-card. If he can get close to his old Philly production then this outfield can contend.

     



    Great job here, jid.

    On Linares, I have read he is a very good fielder. Just wondering...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, Linares may be a decent fielder but he is slow. Maybe he's very good at balls he gets to but he's a little thick around the middle to cover a lot of ground. He does have a good arm. And in left field at Fenway he doesn't need to cover ground but it does help if he can throw. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Many of the experts considering our prospects for the season are blinded by last year's results. The team of last year was a story of two teams, the under achievers prior to the trade deadline and the band of fill ins after the trde deadline. Let's compare to the 2011 version, a competitive group of players that fizzled at the end, yet still garnered 90 victories. First look at the transition spots; Napoli comes in to replace A-Gon's 27  117 .338, Adrian was an inconsistent power threat, a tremendous six week stretch puffed up his numbers, he had one dinger in April, and left many men on base, especially early on when they began in a funk. Napoli's hit chart for last season projects 20 homers at Fenway alone, and that's in less than a full season. Slight advantage; Napoli. At SS, the combination of Iggy/Drew has got to be better than  Marco Scutaro's 7 54 .299, and defensively it's a no-brainer, as Marco could barely throw the ball to first, Scutaro was the darling of the Giants revival, but he did that as a 2B. Advantage: Iggy/Drew. 3B is Middlebrooks over Youkilis' 17 80 .258 again both offensively and defensively advantage WMB. LF has the spectre of Carl Crawford's 11 56 .255 and whether it's Bradley Jr or Gomes Jonny, advantage goes clearly to the 2013 team. Slide over to RF and JD Drew played half the games and posted 4 22 .222, wow, that's worse then I remember! Victorino is a big upgrade over JD/D-Mac/Reddick. Finally, DH, if Ortiz recovers can he best 29 96 .309? Probably not, but it's not the end of the world if he doesn't. We still have Pedroia 21 91 .307 in 2011, that's seems reasonable, we still have Salty 16 56 .235 in 103 games, and then Ellsbury in CF, 32 105 .321 can he duplicate this? He's betting on himself, as he prepares to walk away as a FA, that's motivation enough for me. The SP is better, the BP is definately better. Forget about 2012, 2011 tells me things will be okay.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, JBJ was from a major college program with an extremely advanced batting approach and is definitely mlb ready in defense. There is really no comparison in terms of "rawness".

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I am so ready for tomorrow. I don't think I'm going to work tomorrow. It's good to be the boss!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Where did moon go

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    Where did moon go



    Yeah, sometimes he doesn't post for a few hours...maybe he actually has a life outside here? :-)

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

     

    Where did moon go

     



    Yeah, sometimes he doesn't post for a few hours...maybe he actually has a life outside here? :-)

     




    LOL   just waking him up

     

Share