Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 4/18/2013 8:47 PM EDT
In response to maxbialystock's comment:
Ellsbury needs to give a piece of his monthly check for April to Victorino, who may be the most gifted fake bunter in MLB. Twice he has gotten into the crouch, etc, and twice pulled the bat back and slightly distracted the catcher enough to allow Ellsbury to go ape on the basepaths. Plus, of course, Vic is a terrific bunter when he does bunt. And the defense. Right now he is our MVP because I don't believe pitchers should be MVP. Buchholz can be our Cy Young.
I totally disagree. A starting pitcher who pitches 30+ starts actually faces more batters than any everyday player has plate appearances in a season. It is my belief that an opponents PA is equally as important as our PA.
The Pedro MVP robberies will highlight my point.
Pedro's opponents (835 PA):
.205 9 HR 38 2B 0 3B .248 OBP/.288 Slg%/ .536 OPS
Late & Close .134/.183/.179/.362
High Leverage .205/.229/.259/.488
IRod's numbers (630 PA):
.332 35 HR 29 2B 1 3B .356/.558/.914
Late & Close: .284/.318/.568/.886
High Leverage: .308/.336/.490/.827
American League in 1999: .271/.345/.434/.778
Pedro had 205 PAs faced than Giambi had in 1999. That's huge! That's about 30% more. Now, who was better as compared to the AL norm in 1999?
BA -.066 +.062
OBP -.097 +.011
SLG -.146 +.124
OPS -.222 +.136
By far, Pedro beat the league norm numbers. And, he beat them for an additional 205 PAs!
Real 1999 AL MVP: Pedro Martinez
Pedro's opponents (817 PA) :
.167 17 HRs 18 2Bs 1 3Bs .213 OBP/ .259 Slg/ .473 OPS
Late & Close: .198/.264/.356/.620
High Leverage: .150/.232/.250/.482
J Giambi's numbers (664 PA):
.333 43 HR 29 2B 1 3B .476OBP/ .647 Slg%/1.123 OPS
Late & Close: .345/.530/.586/1.116
High Leverage: .325/.492/.663/1.154
American League in 2000: .270/.345/.437/.782
Pedro had 143 more PAs faced than Giambi had in 2000. That's almost 25% more than Giambi. Now, who did better as compared to the 2000 AL norm?
BA -.103 +.063
OBP -.132 +.131
SLG -.178 +.210
OPS -.309 +.341
Pedro was better on BA and slightly better on OBP, but Giambi won on Slg%. I can understand Giambi's win more than IRod's, but I think the extra 143 PAs faced by Pedro gives him the nod.
Real 2000 AL MVP: Pedro Martinez
It was after these two robberies, that I stopped caring about these awards.