A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ellsbury needs to give a  piece of his monthly check for April to Victorino, who may be the most gifted fake bunter in MLB.  Twice he has gotten into the crouch, etc, and twice pulled the bat back and slightly distracted the catcher enough to allow Ellsbury to go ape on the basepaths.  Plus, of course, Vic is a terrific bunter when he does bunt.  And the defense.  Right now he is our MVP because I don't believe pitchers should be MVP.  Buchholz can be our Cy Young. 

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Ellsbury needs to give a  piece of his monthly check for April to Victorino, who may be the most gifted fake bunter in MLB.  Twice he has gotten into the crouch, etc, and twice pulled the bat back and slightly distracted the catcher enough to allow Ellsbury to go ape on the basepaths.  Plus, of course, Vic is a terrific bunter when he does bunt.  And the defense.  Right now he is our MVP because I don't believe pitchers should be MVP.  Buchholz can be our Cy Young. 

     




    what i really wanna see is some big numbah two : ShaVic double steal action.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    This is what I wrote on my final spring training analysis of Victorino...

    Victorino...didn't see as much of him as I would have liked because of the WBC but what I did see warrants a mixed review. Defensively he's very good; tracks balls very well, good speed still and he has a very good and accurate arm. Offensively he is two very different hitters and I'm not sure if this has always been the case or not. Right-handed he drives the ball and will wear out the wall and hit a few bombs over it, but left-handed he is a slap hitter trying to beat out infield hits to the ledt side; at least that's what I've seen this spring. He's an outstanding base runner with good speed still and seems like a guy who enjoys the game and plays hard all the time.

    He has been everything I had hoped for and MORE. What a tough out! And Amp is right on, his FUNDAMENTALS are flawless, something this old coach loves to see. His signing was much maligned here (I didn't like the money or the years, but what do any of us know?) but Ben and his people did their homework and brought in players who play the game the right way and try to win in every way possible.

    Max, I've been using the fake-bunt on almost every steal on my Legion team for years and some kids, in fact most kids, make a half-hearted effort to get it done. Shane does it in textbook fashion, which should hopefully help me to convince my kids to do it the same way.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I am very excited about a game in Maine this year.  I think I still have your dad's number but might have to exchange a number with you before June.

    How 'Bout them Sox?  Hitting on all cylinders at this time.  Pitching has been great so far, and I like that it keeps them close so manufactured runs help them win if they aren't hitting big.  Also it seems like different guys are stepping up each night.

    I'm interested to see how they're going to use Wright... 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Ellsbury needs to give a  piece of his monthly check for April to Victorino, who may be the most gifted fake bunter in MLB.  Twice he has gotten into the crouch, etc, and twice pulled the bat back and slightly distracted the catcher enough to allow Ellsbury to go ape on the basepaths.  Plus, of course, Vic is a terrific bunter when he does bunt.  And the defense.  Right now he is our MVP because I don't believe pitchers should be MVP.  Buchholz can be our Cy Young. 

     




    I totally disagree. A starting pitcher who pitches 30+ starts actually faces more batters than any everyday player has plate appearances in a season. It is my belief that an opponents PA is equally as important as our PA.

    The Pedro MVP robberies will highlight my point.

    1999

    Pedro's opponents (835 PA):

     .205  9 HR  38 2B  0 3B .248 OBP/.288 Slg%/ .536 OPS

    Late & Close    .134/.183/.179/.362

    High Leverage .205/.229/.259/.488

    IRod's numbers (630 PA):

    .332  35 HR  29 2B  1 3B  .356/.558/.914

    Late & Close:    .284/.318/.568/.886

    High Leverage: .308/.336/.490/.827

     

    American League in 1999: .271/.345/.434/.778

    Pedro had 205 PAs faced than Giambi had in 1999. That's huge! That's about 30% more. Now, who was better as compared to the AL norm in 1999?

              Pedro    IRod

    BA      -.066   +.062

    OBP    -.097   +.011

    SLG    -.146    +.124

    OPS    -.222    +.136

    By far, Pedro beat the league norm numbers. And, he beat them for an additional 205 PAs!

    Real 1999 AL MVP: Pedro Martinez

    ____________________________________________________

    2000

    Pedro's opponents (817 PA) :

    .167  17 HRs 18 2Bs  1 3Bs  .213 OBP/ .259 Slg/ .473 OPS

    Late & Close:    .198/.264/.356/.620

    High Leverage: .150/.232/.250/.482

    J Giambi's numbers  (664 PA):

    .333  43 HR  29 2B  1 3B  .476OBP/ .647 Slg%/1.123 OPS

    Late & Close:     .345/.530/.586/1.116

    High Leverage: .325/.492/.663/1.154

     

    American League in 2000: .270/.345/.437/.782

    Pedro had 143 more PAs faced than Giambi had in 2000. That's almost 25% more than Giambi. Now, who did better as compared to the 2000 AL norm?

               Pedro    Giambi

    BA      -.103   +.063

    OBP    -.132   +.131

    SLG    -.178    +.210

    OPS    -.309    +.341

    Pedro was better on BA and slightly better on OBP, but Giambi won on Slg%. I can understand Giambi's win more than IRod's, but I think the extra 143 PAs faced by Pedro gives him the nod.

    Real 2000 AL MVP: Pedro Martinez

     

    It was after these two robberies, that I stopped caring about these awards.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon, I am very excited about a game in Maine this year.  I think I still have your dad's number but might have to exchange a number with you before June.

    How 'Bout them Sox?  Hitting on all cylinders at this time.  Pitching has been great so far, and I like that it keeps them close so manufactured runs help them win if they aren't hitting big.  Also it seems like different guys are stepping up each night.

    I'm interested to see how they're going to use Wright... 



    Yes, my Dad's number is still the same. I think a bunch of guys from here might meet up for a game. That would be fun.

    I'm loving watching this team. I like how we are jumping out to leads, and our starters are doing way better than I expected.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Moon, I am very excited about a game in Maine this year.  I think I still have your dad's number but might have to exchange a number with you before June.

    How 'Bout them Sox?  Hitting on all cylinders at this time.  Pitching has been great so far, and I like that it keeps them close so manufactured runs help them win if they aren't hitting big.  Also it seems like different guys are stepping up each night.

    I'm interested to see how they're going to use Wright... 

     



    Yes, my Dad's number is still the same. I think a bunch of guys from here might meet up for a game. That would be fun.

     

    I'm loving watching this team. I like how we are jumping out to leads, and our starters are doing way better than I expected.



    never been so glad to be wrong eh?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Moon, I am very excited about a game in Maine this year.  I think I still have your dad's number but might have to exchange a number with you before June.

    How 'Bout them Sox?  Hitting on all cylinders at this time.  Pitching has been great so far, and I like that it keeps them close so manufactured runs help them win if they aren't hitting big.  Also it seems like different guys are stepping up each night.

    I'm interested to see how they're going to use Wright... 

     



    Yes, my Dad's number is still the same. I think a bunch of guys from here might meet up for a game. That would be fun.

     

    I'm loving watching this team. I like how we are jumping out to leads, and our starters are doing way better than I expected.

     



    never been so glad to be wrong eh?

     



    Yes, it's much better than the disappointment of recent years, but like in those years, as many here were giving up on the Sox after slow starts, I'm not getting overly excited about a small sample size great start.

    I'm loving what I'm seeing, but I know we will hit a rough spot at some point, and we will see some poster's jumping ship faster than you can say Saltalamacchia. I've been one of the last Sox fans to give up on a season so many times I can't count them, but I also try not to get too caught up in hoopla during exceptionally good times.

    This is very fun to watch, don't get me wrong. I'm loving nearly every aspect of the games I am watching (I just started watching tonight's game on tape delay- but I know the score). Defense, Baserunning. Pitching. Everyone pitching in.

    Go Sox!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jcri's comment:

     

    Moon, I am very excited about a game in Maine this year.  I think I still have your dad's number but might have to exchange a number with you before June.

    How 'Bout them Sox?  Hitting on all cylinders at this time.  Pitching has been great so far, and I like that it keeps them close so manufactured runs help them win if they aren't hitting big.  Also it seems like different guys are stepping up each night.

    I'm interested to see how they're going to use Wright... 

     



    Yes, my Dad's number is still the same. I think a bunch of guys from here might meet up for a game. That would be fun.

     

    I'm loving watching this team. I like how we are jumping out to leads, and our starters are doing way better than I expected.

     



    never been so glad to be wrong eh?

     

     



    Yes, it's much better than the disappointment of recent years, but like in those years, as many here were giving up on the Sox after slow starts, I'm not getting overly excited about a small sample size great start.

     

    I'm loving what I'm seeing, but I know we will hit a rough spot at some point, and we will see some poster's jumping ship faster than you can say Saltalamacchia. I've been one of the last Sox fans to give up on a season so many times I can't count them, but I also try not to get too caught up in hoopla during exceptionally good times.

    This is very fun to watch, don't get me wrong. I'm loving nearly every aspect of the games I am watching (I just started watching tonight's game on tape delay- but I know the score). Defense, Baserunning. Pitching. Everyone pitching in.

    Go Sox!



    understandable concerns.you never know if performance and health will keep up throughout the season. but nonetheless what a fantastic start to the season. a few more breaks our way and we could be 13-2 instead of 11-4. but i can't complain... it's hard to when so many things are looking good. of course one can always nitpick and find flaws.. Drews reverse performance (stellar D and mediocre O), WMB, hanrahan etc.. but those things aside we are playing amazing baseball right now.

     
  10. This post has been removed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    understandable concerns.you never know if performance and health will keep up throughout the season. but nonetheless what a fantastic start to the season. a few more breaks our way and we could be 13-2 instead of 11-4. but i can't complain... it's hard to when so many things are looking good. of course one can always nitpick and find flaws.. Drews reverse performance (stellar D and mediocre O), WMB, hanrahan etc.. but those things aside we are playing amazing baseball right now.

    Nobody could or should expect everyone to have done well at any measuring point in the season. We are seeing many players do better than expected and only a handful less.  That won't likely last, but getting off to this nice start gives us a buffer I was not expecting.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Like everyone else, I'm tickled to death with the team...

    I really only worry about bullpen burnout.  Farrell is going to have to really pull the right strings to prevent this from happening.  It's why it's so important when Lester and Buch give us that extra inning or two.

    What does ease my concern is the pitching depth the organization is assembling just for this potential problem.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    [quote]

     

    Like everyone else, I'm tickled to death with the team...

     

    I really only worry about bullpen burnout.  Farrell is going to have to really pull the right strings to prevent this from happening.  It's why it's so important when Lester and Buch give us that extra inning or two.

     

    What does ease my concern is the pitching depth the organization is assembling just for this potential problem.

    [/quote]

     

    while that is a general concern i don't think it will happen unless our starting rotation does a 180. They are doing a good job of pacing guys, giving them days off and so on. Also keep in mind that Morales and Breslow will be back soon and be fresh arms to take some work off the arms of more fragile pitchers like Uehara and Bailey. Also like you said, we have a plethora of depth in the minors who can come in and give us a stint here and there to rest up guys when they get worn out.

    I said it in the offseason and i'll say it again. this team has flexibility. which could be one of our biggest assets going forward.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Another 7 inning performance - EXCELLENT. I will say it though - same game same performance and Tito pulls Lester after 5 or 6 innings. 



    Misconception.  Lester had plenty of 7+ inning games and plenty of 110+ pitch games with Tito.

    First 4 games of 2011, Tito's last season, Lester 25.1 IP, 416 pitches.

    First 4 games of 2013, Lester 26 IP, 411 pitches.

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    That is for April 2011... 




    ..which is the last year Tito managed Lester no?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    That is for April 2011... 

     




    ..which is the last year Tito managed Lester no?

     



    Yes, and in 2011, Lester only pitched over 120 pitches 2 times (not saying there is anything wrong with that).

    GS'd 110+  12

    100-109     10

    90-99          4

    <90             2 (including 4 Ip 0 ER in the game he came out hurt)

     

    This year, he has 96, 100, 100 and 115 pitches in his first 4 starts.

    I love the 23-4 K/BB ratio.

    The 1.73 ERA.

    The 0.885 WHIP.

    Great signs for a pitcher who has struggled early in the year as compared to other times.

    Apr  3.88

    May 4.11

    June 2.78

    July  3.83

    Aug  3.83

    Sep  4.14

    Oct   3.51

     

    Here is a closer look:

    Lester's ERA on these dates:

    4/23/12  6.00

    4/12/11  3.72 (5 ERs in his opener)

    4/23/10  6.23

    4/29/09  5.40 (5/15/09: 6.51)

    4/23/08  5.40

     

    Lester almost always has a great start in his last April game that makes his April look better than it was for the first part.

    If he finishes like he normally does, he is on pace for his best season ever. (Knock on wood)

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Good stuff, moonslav.  I forgot about Lester's slow starts. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Provided the game gets played tonight, what are the expectations w/ Ortiz being back? He smacked a 90mph fastball out on his last rehab AB. Says he's 100%, but the $ penalty could have a little something to do w/ it. I'm sure he's atleast an honest 90% thouAnd and I think that's good enough for most. Sox offense have been streaky as far as HRs go, but its been early & its been cold too. Hope he solidifies that part if their game Over the next 2 months. If not, im of the opinion they need to make a trade. Ortiz is one of the best, if not the best hitter vs Shields. 57 AB, 17 H,  10 2B, 3 hr, 15 RBI, 8BB, 9 SO, .298/.385/.632/1.016. You could argue Cano is better but he's also got close to 20 more career AB vs Shields. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Good stuff, moonslav.  I forgot about Lester's slow starts. 



    Sometimes there's a story within a story.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    I want to tip my hat to Moon for starting this thread and to all the posters who contribute.

    We all acknowledged the atrocity of the bombings and yet this thread has maintained the major topic...baseball.

    Thank you all for who you all are.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Thanks, amp. Your contributions are greatly appreciated.

     

    How about "no pop" Jed going 4 for 4 tonight?

    His current line:

    .413/.479/.683/1.162

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    I want to tip my hat to Moon for starting this thread and to all the posters who contribute.

    We all acknowledged the atrocity of the bombings and yet this thread has maintained the major topic...baseball.

    Thank you all for who you all are.



    Thanks Amp, this is a diversion we all need sometimes. That's why it's irritating when the thread gets partially derailed by the occasional knucklehead, like on the hundreds of other threads on here.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jed Lowrie...yes, I'm glad he's doing so well.  I always did support him.  I remember that he got a key home run for us and rounded the bases supporting his injured hand.  He tried his best to play through the serious pain he was experiencing.

    It's just unfortunate that he was injured so much of the time with us...a tough break.

     

    Jid, yes, my unritten intent was to separate this thread from all the others.  Actually, it almost surprises me that we're somewhat immune from their infestation..LOL.

     

    God bless America and the superb job by all the citizens of Boston and law enforcement organizations. 

    P.S.  Can everyone believe the job Pettitte is doing for the Yankess?...incredible.

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jed Lowrie...yes, I'm glad he's doing so well.  I always did support him.  I remember that he got a key home run for us and rounded the bases supporting his injured hand.  He tried his best to play through the serious pain he was experiencing.

    It's just unfortunate that he was injured so much of the time with us...a tough break.

    It upset me that he kept the injury a secret for so long, and I believe that hurt the team.

     

    Jid, yes, my unritten intent was to separate this thread from all the others.  Actually, it almost surprises me that we're somewhat immune from their infestation..LOL.

    Maybe the high number of posts scares them away.

     

    God bless America and the superb job by all the citizens of Boston and law enforcement organizations. 

    Awesome job, but this may not be over.

     

    P.S.  Can everyone believe the job Pettitte is doing for the Yankess?...incredible.

    Maybe he has found a "new drug".

     

     




     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share