A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Webster looked nervous as heck but perhaps he was being extra cautious, which is good. He seemed to be able to get his curveball over for strikes. I would seriously consider using it more often. His changeup appears decent and if he can keep that fastball low he will get lots of grounders and bad contact.

    Bring up Iglesias and let him pitch! JK.

    Seriously though, they needed a start out of him but they also have some roster issues coming up they will need some decisions on. I think Aceves is gone, baby, gone within a month. They now feel pretty well about Webster as a 6th starter. KC is a good hitting team. They are not slouches. Webster did well.

    They might think they can get by with Morales, Webster, De La Rosa, Ranaudo, Doyle as starter depth. Even Wright, Britton or Hernandez could slot in as a worst case scenario.

    They can't protect all their pitchers with Lackey, Morales, Breslow coming back to the team. They probably don't want to just release Mortensen. I think the Webster audition gives them some trade flexibility.   



    I think they get creative with a a couple phantom DL assignments, so they can put off making the big decision until more is known.

    We may not trade the worst of the group. Instead, we may trade the one that brings back the most in return: probably a prospect. My guess is it will be Aceves or Mortensen, but Miller might be it.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, not sure we see Aceves times two in the next fortnight; I expect Lackey to get the ball as soon as his DL stint ends.

    Boom, I did not see a nervous pitcher at all last night. He was outstanding in spring training; this effort did not surprise me at all. The Dodger deal is looking better and better. 

    It was tough to drop two yesterday, but we are still 12-6, best in AL if I'm not mistaken. Uehara showed he's human. And these aren't your last 20 years' Royals. We've put this start together with very little production from Middlebrooks and Drew, two guys who are much better hitters than what they've showed. Maybe tonight's bomb ignites Middlebrooks and Drew has swung the bat well tonight too.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Moon, not sure we see Aceves times two in the next fortnight; I expect Lackey to get the ball as soon as his DL stint ends.

    Boom, I did not see a nervous pitcher at all last night. He was outstanding in spring training; this effort did not surprise me at all. The Dodger deal is looking better and better. 

    It was tough to drop two yesterday, but we are still 12-6, best in AL if I'm not mistaken. Uehara showed he's human. And these aren't your last 20 years' Royals. We've put this start together with very little production from Middlebrooks and Drew, two guys who are much better hitters than what they've showed. Maybe tonight's bomb ignites Middlebrooks and Drew has swung the bat well tonight too.



    True on Lackey. I'm almost liking Aceves as the 5th starter over Doubront, but I know it won't happen.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Moon, not sure we see Aceves times two in the next fortnight; I expect Lackey to get the ball as soon as his DL stint ends.

    Boom, I did not see a nervous pitcher at all last night. He was outstanding in spring training; this effort did not surprise me at all. The Dodger deal is looking better and better. 

    It was tough to drop two yesterday, but we are still 12-6, best in AL if I'm not mistaken. Uehara showed he's human. And these aren't your last 20 years' Royals. We've put this start together with very little production from Middlebrooks and Drew, two guys who are much better hitters than what they've showed. Maybe tonight's bomb ignites Middlebrooks and Drew has swung the bat well tonight too.

     



    True on Lackey. I'm almost liking Aceves as the 5th starter over Doubront, but I know it won't happen.

     



    Doubront actually settled down tonight and got them into the seventh. I still can't warm up to Aceves and would rather see Webster than any of them. If Lackey can come back like he was throwing when he got hurt he's a solid fifth starter.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Moon, not sure we see Aceves times two in the next fortnight; I expect Lackey to get the ball as soon as his DL stint ends.

    Boom, I did not see a nervous pitcher at all last night. He was outstanding in spring training; this effort did not surprise me at all. The Dodger deal is looking better and better. 

    It was tough to drop two yesterday, but we are still 12-6, best in AL if I'm not mistaken. Uehara showed he's human. And these aren't your last 20 years' Royals. We've put this start together with very little production from Middlebrooks and Drew, two guys who are much better hitters than what they've showed. Maybe tonight's bomb ignites Middlebrooks and Drew has swung the bat well tonight too.

     



    True on Lackey. I'm almost liking Aceves as the 5th starter over Doubront, but I know it won't happen.

     

     



    Doubront actually settled down tonight and got them into the seventh. I still can't warm up to Aceves and would rather see Webster than any of them. If Lackey can come back like he was throwing when he got hurt he's a solid fifth starter.

     



    I know, and it goes against everything I have thought and said about Aceves, namely that his best role is as a mid/long man and not a starter or closer, but I like the way he looked the last 2 starts, and if we yank him after 4-5 IP, maybe his numbers would have been even better.

    Doubront deserves a longer look, so I am not set on the idea... yet.

    Doubront's WHIP is not getting better. It was my big concern this winter, and it doesn't look any better now.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront is still young and he does have solid stuff. I would continue to throw him out there. He's also cheap.

    And controllable for several more years. We are building value in him.

    Gotta roll with it.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    BOSTON -- Right-hander John Lackey had a strong opening to his Minor League rehab assignment on Monday night, firing 3 2/3 shutout innings at Double-A Portland.

    Lackey gave up three hits while walking two and striking out five. He threw 67 pitches, 45 for strikes.

    This was the first game action for Lackey since April 6, when he strained his right bicep in a game against the Blue Jays.

    He will need at least one more Minor League start before he is ready to rejoin the Red Sox.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm glad we have Webster and guys like Aceves, Mortensen, Tazawa and Wright, who could step in and start or become a starter this season if need be.

    I'm not totally sold on anyone below Lester & Buch.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront hasn't had an era below 4.5 and averages almost 4 walks/9in. 

    I'm no expert, but I'd rather give a guy like Webster a shot....soon.  At the least we know he throws strikes.

    When Lackey comes back and the way Webster threw, it wouldn't surprise me that Doubront is the odd man out.  Besides, Aceves is more flexible...start, or relief.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Doubront hasn't had an era below 4.5 and averages almost 4 walks/9in. 

    I'm no expert, but I'd rather give a guy like Webster a shot....soon.  At the least we know he throws strikes.

    When Lackey comes back and the way Webster threw, it wouldn't surprise me that Doubront is the odd man out.  Besides, Aceves is more flexible...start, or relief.

    I realize Doubie has nasty stuff and could turn into a very good starter, but many of my past winter trade suggestions included Doubront. I have gone into detail about the reasons several times, but in short it was mostly based on his high BB/9 rate or WHIP plus the coming to camp out of shape issue(s). I did not want to give him away, but I really like Tazawa and Webster, and maybe someday down the road DLR, Barnes, Henry or another a lot. Having Aceves, Mortensen and Wright minimizes the risk somewhat of trading away pitching depth, but my plan included adding depth back via free agency (McCarthy, Maholm, or Marcum) or trading up (B Anderson).

    I guess we could still deal Doubront, perhaps even when we get to the roster crunch time as our DL'd pitchers start returning. My guess is he could bring a nice return, perhaps as part of a 2 or 3 for 1 player deal.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Updated numbers:

    OBP:

    Papi    .538 (Just 12 PAs)

    Iggy    .476 (20 PA)

    Nava   .429

    Carp    .417 (just 12 PAs)

    Pedey .404

    Vict     .378

    Gomes .368 

    Ells     .333

    Naps  .321

    Chiri  .316 (14 PA)

    Salty  .293

    JBJ     .263

    Drew  .237

    Midd  .211

    Ross  .182 (14 PA)

     

    SLG

    Carp  .833

    Papi  .667 (called "punch & judy" by some clown)

    Nava .600

    Naps  .570

    Iggy  .550

    Salty .462

    Ells   .459

    Midd .417

    Vict   .323

    Pedey .319

    Ross   .286

    Gomes .241

    Chiri   .214

    Drew  .152

    JBJ     .129

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    ERA in order of most IP:

    Buch  0.90

    Lest   1.73

    Dem  3.38

    Doub 4.32

    Acev 6.28

    Bail   1.74

    Taza 0.93

    Mort 4.82

    Ueh  1.17

    Web 3.00

    Han 11.57

    Lack 4.15

    Mill  6.75

    Wils 0.00

     

    WHIP

    Taza  0.62

    Ueh   0.65

    Bail   0.87

    Lest  0.89

    Web  1.00

    Buch 1.00

    Mort  1.07

    Dem  1.13

    Doub 1.50

    Acev 1.81

     

    Aamazing that all our pitchers, except 2, have a WHIP of under 1.126 !

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm not totally sold on anyone below Lester & Buch.



    No, I can't say I am either. But I can't recall a horrible start from anyone yet. Every game has been win-able. Opening week 3-5 went 5 innings, now they're going 7 or close to 7. That's encouraging. The Strike Outs seem to be up too, no? I'll have to check on that. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm not totally sold on anyone below Lester & Buch.

     



    No, I can't say I am either. But I can't recall a horrible start from anyone yet. Every game has been win-able. Opening week 3-5 went 5 innings, now they're going 7 or close to 7. That's encouraging. The Strike Outs seem to be up too, no? I'll have to check on that. 

     



    It certainly has been a great start from our starters.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    MLB Team Pitching Leaders:

    SO :  Bos #1 (189)

    BAA: Bos tied #1 (.215) 

    ERA: Bos #3 (3.00)

    BB :  Bos #8 (66)

     

    AL TEAM PITCHING leaders:

     

    H    : Bos #14 (134)

    OBP: Bos tied #1 (.293)

    SLG: Bos #3 (.367)

    OPS: Bos #2 (.660)

    SV%: Bos #11 (64.00)

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    MLB Team Pitching Leaders:

    SO :  Bos #1 (189)

    BAA: Bos tied #1 (.215) 

    ERA: Bos #3 (3.00)

    BB :  Bos #8 (66)

     

    AL TEAM PITCHING leaders:

     

    H    : Bos #14 (134)

    OBP: Bos tied #1 (.293)

    SLG: Bos #3 (.367)

    OPS: Bos #2 (.660)

    SV%: Bos #11 (64.00)

     



    #1 in AL xFIP at 3.32

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    MLB Team Pitching Leaders:

    SO :  Bos #1 (189)

    BAA: Bos tied #1 (.215) 

    ERA: Bos #3 (3.00)

    BB :  Bos #8 (66)

     

    AL TEAM PITCHING leaders:

     

    H    : Bos #14 (134)

    OBP: Bos tied #1 (.293)

    SLG: Bos #3 (.367)

    OPS: Bos #2 (.660)

    SV%: Bos #11 (64.00)

     



    Actually, #1 in MLB at xFIP.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    MLB Team Pitching Leaders:

    SO :  Bos #1 (189)

    BAA: Bos tied #1 (.215) 

    ERA: Bos #3 (3.00)

    BB :  Bos #8 (66)

     

    AL TEAM PITCHING leaders:

     

    H    : Bos #14 (134)

    OBP: Bos tied #1 (.293)

    SLG: Bos #3 (.367)

    OPS: Bos #2 (.660)

    SV%: Bos #11 (64.00)

     

     



    Actually, #1 in MLB at xFIP.

     



    Ok Moon. Let me make an honorable attempt at grasping that stat. 

      My mind goes back to DIP% (defense excluded)   Then FIP (Average Defense Included)   Then xFIP (FIP including average HRs hit via a pitchers Flyball rate)   So if the xFIP is good to excellent, Does that mean those HRs given up already had a good chance of happening regardless?    LOL
     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    MLB Team Pitching Leaders:

    SO :  Bos #1 (189)

    BAA: Bos tied #1 (.215) 

    ERA: Bos #3 (3.00)

    BB :  Bos #8 (66)

     

    AL TEAM PITCHING leaders:

     

    H    : Bos #14 (134)

    OBP: Bos tied #1 (.293)

    SLG: Bos #3 (.367)

    OPS: Bos #2 (.660)

    SV%: Bos #11 (64.00)

     

     



    Actually, #1 in MLB at xFIP.

     

     



    Ok Moon. Let me make an honorable attempt at grasping that stat. 

     

      My mind goes back to DIP% (defense excluded)   Then FIP (Average Defense Included)   Then xFIP (FIP including average HRs hit via a pitchers Flyball rate)   So if the xFIP is good to excellent, Does that mean those HRs given up already had a good chance of happening regardless?    LOL




    xFIP

    Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.

    Home run rates are generally unstable over time and fluctuate around league-average, so by estimating a pitcher’s home run total, xFIP attempts to isolate a player’s ability level. A pitcher may allow home runs on 12% of their flyballs one year, then turn around and only allow 7% the next year. HR/FB ratios can be very difficult to predict, so xFIP attempts to correct for that.

    Here is the full formula for xFIP. Notice how it is almost exactly the same as the formula for FIP, with the lone difference being how each accounts for home runs:

    xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

    The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. You can find historical FIP constant values here, or you can derive the constant by taking league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA. League-average home run per fly ball rate varies on a yearly basis, but you can find those values here on the FanGraphs leaderboards.

    Along with FIP, xFIP is one of the best metrics at predicting a pitcher’s future performance. Since it was created, though, there have been some studies that suggest certain pitchers can post lower-than-average HR/FB rates over time. For more information on this, see the statistic SIERA.

    Context:

    Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average xFIP varies on a year-by-year basis so that it is always the same as league-average ERA. To see the league-average xFIP for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

    RatingxFIP Excellent 2.90 Great 3.25 Above Average 3.75 Average 4.00 Below Average 4.20 Poor 4.50 Awful 5.00

    Things to Remember:

    ● While HR/FB ratios are generally unstable over time, some pitchers are still more prone to allowing home runs than others. If a pitcher has a long history of over- or under-performing the league average with their HR/FB rate, then you can reasonably expect them to perform closer to their career average than the league-average. In cases like this, xFIP may overestimate or underestimate a player’s true talent level by assuming a league average HR/FB ratio. Again, for more, see SIERA.

    ● Ground ball pitchers typically have higher HR/FB ratios than fly ball pitchers.

    ● xFIP has one of the highest correlations with future ERA of all the pitching metrics. Only SIERA out-paces it.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Love all the stats, but think the simplest stat, team ERA, 2d best in the AL, tells the key story.  I am guessing the Sox's starting rotation has the best ERA in the AL.  That tells me they don't need to make any major moves.  When Lackey is ready, he goes back into the rotation with Lester, Buchholz, Dempster and Doubront, none of whom--nor has Aceves or Webster--has had a really bad start.  The bullpen has looked very good at times, but has also blown some saves, more than they should have.  Lackey, FWIW, looked a ton better in that one start than I can remember going back to his first season in Boston. 

    Doubront drives me nuts, but so did Buchholz in prior years, and last night Doubront went 6 2/3 despite big problems getting his breaking stuff, especially his changeup, in the strike zone.  I think he is a keeper.  Aceves, on the other hand, scares me to death because I think he might be psychotic.  I think Miller should be the key lefty, but once again he is struggling with control--hopefully, it's the cold weather. 

     I keep thinking we need to wait for the warm weather to see if the current success holds up.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Love all the stats, but think the simplest stat, team ERA, 2d best in the AL, tells the key story.  I am guessing the Sox's starting rotation has the best ERA in the AL.  That tells me they don't need to make any major moves.  When Lackey is ready, he goes back into the rotation with Lester, Buchholz, Dempster and Doubront, none of whom--nor has Aceves or Webster--has had a really bad start.  The bullpen has looked very good at times, but has also blown some saves, more than they should have.  Lackey, FWIW, looked a ton better in that one start than I can remember going back to his first season in Boston. 

    Doubront drives me nuts, but so did Buchholz in prior years, and last night Doubront went 6 2/3 despite big problems getting his breaking stuff, especially his changeup, in the strike zone.  I think he is a keeper.  Aceves, on the other hand, scares me to death because I think he might be psychotic.  I think Miller should be the key lefty, but once again he is struggling with control--hopefully, it's the cold weather. 

     I keep thinking we need to wait for the warm weather to see if the current success holds up.



    AL  Team ERA

    1) texas  2.86

    2) Boston 3.00

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Love all the stats, but think the simplest stat, team ERA, 2d best in the AL, tells the key story.  I am guessing the Sox's starting rotation has the best ERA in the AL.  That tells me they don't need to make any major moves.  When Lackey is ready, he goes back into the rotation with Lester, Buchholz, Dempster and Doubront, none of whom--nor has Aceves or Webster--has had a really bad start.  The bullpen has looked very good at times, but has also blown some saves, more than they should have.  Lackey, FWIW, looked a ton better in that one start than I can remember going back to his first season in Boston. 

    Doubront drives me nuts, but so did Buchholz in prior years, and last night Doubront went 6 2/3 despite big problems getting his breaking stuff, especially his changeup, in the strike zone.  I think he is a keeper.  Aceves, on the other hand, scares me to death because I think he might be psychotic.  I think Miller should be the key lefty, but once again he is struggling with control--hopefully, it's the cold weather. 

     I keep thinking we need to wait for the warm weather to see if the current success holds up.



    Doub drives us all crazy, he doesn't seem to have much stamina or concentration past the fifth inning and starts the game shakey at times.  He has good stuff, I'm not sure what will become of him as a starter.  Hopefully he just needs to mature a but more and he certainly has some support.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Love all the stats, but think the simplest stat, team ERA, 2d best in the AL, tells the key story.  I am guessing the Sox's starting rotation has the best ERA in the AL.  That tells me they don't need to make any major moves.  When Lackey is ready, he goes back into the rotation with Lester, Buchholz, Dempster and Doubront, none of whom--nor has Aceves or Webster--has had a really bad start.  The bullpen has looked very good at times, but has also blown some saves, more than they should have.  Lackey, FWIW, looked a ton better in that one start than I can remember going back to his first season in Boston. 

    Doubront drives me nuts, but so did Buchholz in prior years, and last night Doubront went 6 2/3 despite big problems getting his breaking stuff, especially his changeup, in the strike zone.  I think he is a keeper.  Aceves, on the other hand, scares me to death because I think he might be psychotic.  I think Miller should be the key lefty, but once again he is struggling with control--hopefully, it's the cold weather. 

     I keep thinking we need to wait for the warm weather to see if the current success holds up.

     



    Doub drives us all crazy, he doesn't seem to have much stamina or concentration past the fifth inning and starts the game shakey at times.  He has good stuff, I'm not sure what will become of him as a starter.  Hopefully he just needs to mature a but more and he certainly has some support.

     



    His mindset has not impressed me, but everything else seems near top shelf.

     

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