A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    He's lefthanded. That should be a simple enough explanation, right Amp? When you use the wrong arm to throw there's no telling how many other things you'll do wrong;)

    Seriously, he has great swing-and-miss stuff that is quite rare and needs to be treated with lots of patience. Patience with his ability and his learning curve, not with his lack of conditioning. He's young and talented and could be a solid member of this rotation for years to come or he could flame out. He ultimately makes that decision, but the coaching staff and teammates are an important part of the equation that could point him in the most advantageous direction. In that regard he's in the right place.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's what I wrote about Felix after Spring Training...

    Doubront... has swing and miss stuff but a bigger belly than me. And he nibbles, nibbles! He is an inigma since he has great stuff and has yet to make serious MLB money, yet he is potentially costing himself millions with poor conditioning and lapses of concentration on the mound. The inigma could win 12-15 games or he could be out of the rotation by mid-year.


    He's 2-0 but his games are difficult to watch sometimes. Last night the offense gave him a huge lift, but he still walked the tightrope until he settled down after five innings. It may just be maturity; he may not fully trust his stuff, but he's too talented to give up on. He's been the weakest link of the original starting five, but a 4.32 ERA can't be too far off league average. And if your weakest starter is league average you're pitching very well.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Here's what I wrote about Felix after Spring Training...

    Doubront... has swing and miss stuff but a bigger belly than me. And he nibbles, nibbles! He is an inigma since he has great stuff and has yet to make serious MLB money, yet he is potentially costing himself millions with poor conditioning and lapses of concentration on the mound. The inigma could win 12-15 games or he could be out of the rotation by mid-year.


    He's 2-0 but his games are difficult to watch sometimes. Last night the offense gave him a huge lift, but he still walked the tightrope until he settled down after five innings. It may just be maturity; he may not fully trust his stuff, but he's too talented to give up on. He's been the weakest link of the original starting five, but a 4.32 ERA can't be too far off league average. And if your weakest starter is league average you're pitching very well.

     



    I think he is a bit lucky to have an ERA that low with a WHIP of 1.500.

    I'm hoping he stops the "nibbling" and starts reducing his BBs.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    He's lefthanded. That should be a simple enough explanation, right Amp? When you use the wrong arm to throw there's no telling how many other things you'll do wrong;)

    Seriously, he has great swing-and-miss stuff that is quite rare and needs to be treated with lots of patience. Patience with his ability and his learning curve, not with his lack of conditioning. He's young and talented and could be a solid member of this rotation for years to come or he could flame out. He ultimately makes that decision, but the coaching staff and teammates are an important part of the equation that could point him in the most advantageous direction. In that regard he's in the right place.




    Well, I know I've had my share of crazy moments..more than one:)  For some reason, us lefties just approach things differently..

    But, shhhh, don't tell my wife.  I still have her fooled.

    Doubront's conditioning approach bothers me somewhat.  Of course, conditioning was never high on the list for Lolich or Valenzuela, but Doubront isn't in that category.

    Wasn't it Koufax who struggled with his control etc. earlier in his career?  I know, he's no Koufax either.

    I guess the big question is how long do you wait for someone to approach their potential before cutting ties? With Doubront and Aceves, we have two big question marks.  Like I mentioned before, Webster could make that decision a little easier. 

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Here's what I wrote about Felix after Spring Training...

    Doubront... has swing and miss stuff but a bigger belly than me. And he nibbles, nibbles! He is an inigma since he has great stuff and has yet to make serious MLB money, yet he is potentially costing himself millions with poor conditioning and lapses of concentration on the mound. The inigma could win 12-15 games or he could be out of the rotation by mid-year.


    He's 2-0 but his games are difficult to watch sometimes. Last night the offense gave him a huge lift, but he still walked the tightrope until he settled down after five innings. It may just be maturity; he may not fully trust his stuff, but he's too talented to give up on. He's been the weakest link of the original starting five, but a 4.32 ERA can't be too far off league average. And if your weakest starter is league average you're pitching very well.

     

     



    I think he is a bit lucky to have an ERA that low with a WHIP of 1.500.

     

    I'm hoping he stops the "nibbling" and starts reducing his BBs.




    I hear what you're saying Moon, but in Dubront's defense, at least in his last game, there were a number of calls which really could have gone his way.  Another rediculous case for those wonderful men in blue making a pitcher 'pay his dues' before calling close pitches.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I don't really get it. Doubront is cheap and young and improving and strikes out around a batter an inning. He seems to have solid potential. Don't we want that? He is a decent #4 or 5. Ye of little faith!

    Now Aceves has shown a large sample size of not being a good closer or a good starter. He costs more and is older. Which one do we move? Isn't that a no brainer?

    I'm all about building value. Even if Doubront doesn't work out at least make him worth something in a trade and I  really think he can become a decent starter. These guys don't grow on trees and if they thought Tazawa was the guy he would be starting right now but he isn't. And just maybe they are right to leave him where he is. He did just have TJ surgery a little while ago. They are conservatively building value with him also.

    Regarding Webster, it's not like they can throw him out there for 200 innings anyway. Both he and RDLR can help this team, this year, but not for much more than 100 innings at best realistically. And Webster still could benefit for more work in AAA. So far, I think they have managed him very well. We have Morales coming back and Lackey. RDLR and Webster are 2nd half of the year guys as needed. Hopefully.

    And if any of the above works we build a lot of value in all of these guys. We keep the best, trade the rest.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Softy is still scared of my avatar. Can't say I don't blame him. I'll go to a Daniel Nava avatar and smoke that little possum out!

    JBJ has had a solid couple of games, as well as Bogaerts and Cecchini. Owens had a solid start as well. As well as the major league team is doing, the future really looks solid also.

     

    Big numbers!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    These guys don't grow on trees and if they thought Tazawa was the guy he would be starting right now but he isn't. And just maybe they are right to leave him where he is. He did just have TJ surgery a little while ago.

    They may not know just what they have.

    Many starters have come back from TJSurgery.

    My projection: as the season progresses, we'll be looking for another SP, and it will be too late to "stretch out" Taz.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I hear what you are saying about Tazawa and I actually think he has a better shot now as a starter than he did earlier. He came back well from TJ surgury. He controls the game well and has several pitches he can get over the plate. He knows how to pitch and has composure. If needed we could slot him as a starter but at this point I would just keep him as a solid reliever and count on him all year in that slot.

    For starter depth we do have:

    Buchholz

    Lester

    Dempster

    Lackey

    Doubront

    Btw, I think all these guys will have decent years. Some even great years.

    Then:

    Morales

    Webster

    RDLR

    Aceves

    Hernandez

    Ranaudo

    Workman

    That is decent depth. A lot more than most teams have. Morales, Webster, RDLR, Aceves is a lot of starter depth in itself. And the pen is real solid. All of the above guys will have some mlb level experience.

    Teams inevitably need an extra starter or 2 every year but I have no problem with the depth we have. Morales, Webster and RDLR all may well end up as good as some of our current starters. And I'm actually confident in what Lackey is going to give us. He appears healthy and when he was healthy he had a proven track record. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Moon, I hear what you are saying about Tazawa and I actually think he has a better shot now as a starter than he did earlier. He came back well from TJ surgury. He controls the game well and has several pitches he can get over the plate. He knows how to pitch and has composure. If needed we could slot him as a starter but at this point I would just keep him as a solid reliever and count on him all year in that slot.

    For starter depth we do have:

    Buchholz

    Lester

    Dempster

    Lackey

    Doubront

    Btw, I think all these guys will have decent years. Some even great years.

    Then:

    Morales

    Webster

    RDLR

    Aceves

    Hernandez

    Ranaudo

    Workman

    That is decent depth. A lot more than most teams have. Morales, Webster, RDLR, Aceves is a lot of starter depth in itself. And the pen is real solid. All of the above guys will have some mlb level experience.

    Teams inevitably need an extra starter or 2 every year but I have no problem with the depth we have. Morales, Webster and RDLR all may well end up as good as some of our current starters. And I'm actually confident in what Lackey is going to give us. He appears healthy and when he was healthy he had a proven track record. 




    Boom, RDLR has pitched a total of 9 innings in Paw. and has 8 BB's.  I love his velocity etc., but we need a guy who throws strikes.  It's a big reason why I like Webster.  RDLR is like a right handed Miller with more speed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Amp, as you know guys coming back from TJ surgury often struggle with their control. He is probably of no use to use for another month or 2 but his stuff is off the charts. And I do see some recent progress in his rehab. He is maybe even better than Webster. Great fastball and a great change. That right there is all he needs to be a lights out reliever for us by years end. 

    I have very high hopes for RDLR. Both he and Webster. Before last winter RDLR was actually considered a better prospect than Webster by many analysts. I recognize that virtually everyone is all over Webster right now and they have every reason to be on that because he looks like a great prospect. I bet the Dodgers would like to have him right now. He is ahead of schedule to me and you could make a strong case that he is our most valuable prospect right now, over Bogaerts even.

    The bottom line is that guys like Webster, RDLR, Barnes, Ranaudo are worth a small fortune. You have to trade a ton of value to get guys like those. We are probably looking at $100 mil in value in that group IMO. That's a good estimate. I think one of those guys probably hits for a $70 mil guy and another for $30 mil.  Look at all the trades made to get a top young starter like Mat Latos and such. Teams are giving up #1 picks right and left to obtain that sort of prospect.

    Buchholz and Lester were both worth at least $70 mil at that point in their careers. Look how key they are to winning now. Do we have any chance in the playoffs without them? I don't think so.

    I absolutely love our pitching prospects. Cherington's Dodger deal is generating some success for the Dodgers but clearing that cash AND getting some solid prospcts is huge for this team's present and future.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Guess I spoke too soon on no horrible starts. Oops. If that happens every 20th game that's 8 losses we can tack on this season. Given, last night's pitchers were penciled in. Lets hope it was an isolated incident. An Anomaly. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, I hear what you are saying about Tazawa and I actually think he has a better shot now as a starter than he did earlier. He came back well from TJ surgury. He controls the game well and has several pitches he can get over the plate. He knows how to pitch and has composure. If needed we could slot him as a starter but at this point I would just keep him as a solid reliever and count on him all year in that slot.

    For starter depth we do have:

    Buchholz

    Lester

    Dempster

    Lackey

    Doubront

    Btw, I think all these guys will have decent years. Some even great years.

    I do not agree. There is only a slim chance all 5 have decent and healthy years.

     

    Then:

    Morales: He may not start one game this year.

    Webster I like this kid a lot and think he should be in the rotation right now, but if we want to win it all this year, it's a gamble.

    RDLR I do not think he's ready yet- maybe later this year, but more likely next year is his target date.

    Aceves He's having a hard time this year, but could turn it around.

    Hernandez No.

    Ranaudo No.

    Workman No.

    That is decent depth. A lot more than most teams have. Morales, Webster, RDLR, Aceves is a lot of starter depth in itself. And the pen is real solid. All of the above guys will have some mlb level experience.

    Tazawa is better than all of these guys and has a good chance to be better than Dempster, Lackey and Doubront.

    Teams inevitably need an extra starter or 2 every year but I have no problem with the depth we have. Morales, Webster and RDLR all may well end up as good as some of our current starters. And I'm actually confident in what Lackey is going to give us. He appears healthy and when he was healthy he had a proven track record. 

    Our starter depth is good, but Taz is better.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    OK, guys, I'm jumping in with 2 cents worth on the pitching.  I watched Doubie a couple nights ago and he was frustrating like last year when he would get off track, "nibble" as Moon says, and throw two or three walks in a row.  However, back in the day, the 60's, they used to say that pitchers weren't ready for the big show until they'd done 5-7 years in the minors.  I'm for staying patient with Douby.  I think he's fine now for a 4/5 starter and can improve.

    Next, I've supported Aceves here but I'm losing patience with him.  Maybe he's a long reliever only, maybe he's injured, or maybe like others say he's just nuts.  But he just seems to be alarmingly off track and I hate us to give up games.  I get having a bad game once in a while, but what's with the balks?  Seems like a vet pitcher should be beyond that.  I would be much more comfortable with Taz or Webster in that role, and I guess I would prefer Webster who's already stretched out and was successful in ST and his first start.  After Bard, I'm not in favor of changing guys' roles once the seaston starts.  If Taz is doing well now, let's keep him there.  (I don't however think every pitcher is like Bard and will implode on changing roles.  Taz's makeup may be different and I think he could be a starter in the future.)

    Well, my boy Wright didn't do so well last night.  I don't just crow when I'm right about something.  Oh Moon, Eric Chavez whom I recommended a couple of years ago for us to pick up as back up infielder, DH, PH, etc. and then went on to play great for the NYY--he's having another good year for Arizona.  He's the type guy who probably can't play full time, bad back, but has some good skills and veteran leadership for a team.

    I would love to go to a game in Portland this summer!  Maybe some other guys will be around.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Just thought of something I noticed about Mortenson the other night--he was much more herky jerky, arms and elbows, violent arm motion than I remember from last year.  I immediately thought, wow, this is an injury waiting to happen.  I'm definitely not a pitching authority, going on looks only, but did any of you notice this or see a concern?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Boomer, the last thing in the world I'd want to say is that RDLR isn't the real deal.  But, like you said, coming off TJ surgery could make a difference.  Especially for this year.  This is the reason that, temporarily at least, Webster could be the guy to help out in the real near future.

    As Moon has pointed out, it could all depend where we are in the thick of things later on.

    In essence, it's a beautiful thing to be discussing who our next SOLID starting pitchers could be based on reality.  Both guys could turn out to be gems.

    Since Lackey is just really coming off TJ surgery, his control was really phenominal which was surprising because as you mentioned, control is an issue after coming back from it.  I'm really hoping that his return to the starting rotation is a positive injection to the lower end of the rotation.  How could it not be?  I guess he's scheduled for Sunday vs Houston....

    Morales has a sore pectoral and Breslow was terrible in his return.  Baseball can sure be fickle.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I would love to go to a game in Portland this summer!  Maybe some other guys will be around.

     

    I'll be in the Portland area form July 16th to 30th. I hope we can plan a big BDC brigade for a Dogs game.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I would love to go to a game in Portland this summer!  Maybe some other guys will be around.

     

    I'll be in the Portland area form July 16th to 30th. I hope we can plan a big BDC brigade for a Dogs game.



    They have two four-game weekend series, the 18th-21st and the 25-28th, both Thursday through Sunday. I'm only about 200 miles away and would make the road trip.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'll be in the Portland area form July 16th to 30th. I hope we can plan a big BDC brigade for a Dogs game.

     



    They have two four-game weekend series, the 18th-21st and the 25-28th, both Thursday through Sunday. I'm only about 200 miles away and would make the road trip.

     

    Let's see when the most people can make it, and plan as we get closer to the date.

    I suggest we meet at The Pizza Villa an hour or so before the game. It's about a block away from the stadium.

    I'm fine with either series and could go to more than one game if some can't make it on a certain weekend.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I wish it was Portland, Oregon..Frown

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Never been to the left coast, unless you count Acapulco and Puerto Escondido.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, you could use a tad more time on the left coast. I need you as a full convert with Softy, Bill and Burrito breath in full reactionary mode around here. I want you on that wall...I need you on that wall!

    We can agree to disagree on Tazawa. It's not a clear cut call to me. I do see the merit of the option. I just lean to not doing it. Regarding 'all the top starters having good years, I assumed if they are healthy. No one can guarantee health.

    I'm watching the game. Ortiz is not motoring like he used to. Almost just got thrown out at 2nd. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I don't see Ortiz staying healthy this year. The guy is running on his tip toes.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Moon, you could use a tad more time on the left coast. I need you as a full convert with Softy, Bill and Burrito breath in full reactionary mode around here. I want you on that wall...I need you on that wall!

    We can agree to disagree on Tazawa. It's not a clear cut call to me. I do see the merit of the option. I just lean to not doing it. Regarding 'all the top starters having good years, I assumed if they are healthy. No one can guarantee health.

    I'm watching the game. Ortiz is not motoring like he used to. Almost just got thrown out at 2nd. 




    I think we got a break on that second base call.  He VERY easily could have been called out.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We can agree to disagree on Tazawa. It's not a clear cut call to me. I do see the merit of the option. I just lean to not doing it. Regarding 'all the top starters having good years, I assumed if they are healthy. No one can guarantee health.

    I know it's not a clear call. It's risky.

    My position is that unless you are a closer or have health issues that don't allow you to throw a hundred pitches+ in an outing, the pen is for guys not good enough to crack the starting rotation. I know that may be a bit old school, and with today's specialized roles for 7th and 8th inning guns, I get the importance of those slots, but having your best 5 guys going 5-7 innings every 3 days helps more than going 1 innings every other day. Now, if our SPs continue to do well and Doubie improves, there's no need to rush Taz into that role, but as I said all winter, I'd have stretched Tazawa out to a starter/long man and traded Doubront while his stock was rather high (not that it can't get much higher).

     

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