A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Moon, the score doesn't matter.  What does matter is you're picking the winner...kepp it up..don't stop..  

    I had my doubts about Doubront getting through the 1st....and what about Miller?  Wouldn't it be nice to see him go extra innings comfortably?

    There are so many kudos to around where does one start??   Smile

     



    Hey amp,
    I was worried about Doubie last night too. I was listening on the radio on my way to my show. I got there before he started the 2nd inning. What a surprise to find out he went 6.2IP, gave up no more walks and only one more run before departing. That, to me, is a very good sign. After looking like he wouldnt make it through 2-3 innings, he pulled it together to go almost 7IP.  Im watching the game right now on DVR.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I'm really close to giving up on Doubront.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm really close to giving up on Doubront.




    gotta admit he recoverd nicely last nicght to give them almost 7IP. When a pitcher starts off that bad with 30+ pitches in the 1st inning, only to recover and give the team almost 7IP and basically shut the other team down, thats a good sign.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm really close to giving up on Doubront.




    c'mon moon. i thought it ended up being a great start. getting off to such a bad 1st inning and then completely turning it around and going 6.2 is pretty impressive IMO.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm really close to giving up on Doubront.

     




    gotta admit he recoverd nicely last nicght to give them almost 7IP. When a pitcher starts off that bad with 30+ pitches in the 1st inning, only to recover and give the team almost 7IP and basically shut the other team down, thats a good sign.

     



    Sorry, I don't see it that way. I see Doubront walking people every game. Yeah, he K's a bunch of guys and looks good for stretches, but his consistency has not improved one bit, and his WHIP seems destined to be over 1.450 forever.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improve.

    It was all doom and gloom about the team all winter but there was always a good chance these guys would perform. And I think this team still makes the playoffs. I can't remember if I projected 91 or 93 wins but I'm sticking with it. If anything, we are ahead of projections. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I did not anticipate this team being this good against RH pitching. Carp, Nava and Ortiz are all ahead of my estimates. That is huge for this team. We should be demolishing LH pitching.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improve.

     

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I wouldn't fix what aint broken. Milk Doubront for what he has and if he starts degrading give him some rest and bring up Webster or De La Rosa. Hopefully, Morales can help us within the next month. By year end it looks like Ranaudo might be available as a long relief guy. I think we are positioned extremely well.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I don't foresee them messing with Doubront, but that does not change my view on him. There certainly are worse 5 slot starters out there.

    I think Lackey has won the 4 slot after just 2 starts this year. He may be in the 3 slot by summer.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon, What's your perception of Doubront:

    All over the place, just plain wild with bad mechanics? 

    A Dice-K like nibbler who doesn't trust his stuff, and won't challenge hitters?

    I see him just missing on lots of pitches. There is also the distraction of not getting calls on the black. So what does he do? "Give in" to the hitter and not try and be so precise? I think he has  to go after people more. He's got something of a rep for petulance which no doubt doesn't sit well with unpires. He could also study film of Greg Maddux. Not the mechanics, but the facial expressions, the body language. Either that or he could ask for a trade to the Rays. THat alone would expand his strike zone by a couple of inches. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Like our friend Jid has basically said to me 'he's left-handed' what do you expect?..LOL

    Actually, there might be something to that.  It seems that most lefties(me included) have or had trouble with control.  If I'm not mistaken, Koufax and Whitey Ford had control issues early in their careers.  Look at Andrew Miller...great stuff...look at today's right fielder Ankiel...great stuff also, but just lost it.

    It irritates me when Doubront walks people, but I can understand.  And, he does have great potential like many posters here have said...and, he's cheap.  So, although it bothers me, I think we could give him a longer leash.

    Southpaw, I should have asked, did you have control issues?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to patrickford's comment:

    Moon, What's your perception of Doubront:

    All over the place, just plain wild with bad mechanics? 

    A Dice-K like nibbler who doesn't trust his stuff, and won't challenge hitters?

    I see him just missing on lots of pitches. There is also the distraction of not getting calls on the black. So what does he do? "Give in" to the hitter and not try and be so precise? I think he has  to go after people more. He's got something of a rep for petulance which no doubt doesn't sit well with unpires. He could also study film of Greg Maddux. Not the mechanics, but the facial expressions, the body language. Either that or he could ask for a trade to the Rays. THat alone would expand his strike zone by a couple of inches. 



    A simple answer: it's all in his head.

    I had super high hopes for this kid a couple years back, and it burned me up when he finally got his big chance and was out of condition coming into ST. I know I should give the kid a second chance, but seeing a kid with his talent go in that direction, I just can't help but think that people don't change that easily. He is what he is (was).

    He's got "wicked good talent", but that is not always enough to make it in MLB. 

    I think he needs to stop nibbling and start to challenge hitters more. Maybe he'll get a few less K's, but the BBs are killing me.

    I'm not giving up on him, but nothing I have seen so far this year tells me I was wrong about wanting to trade him last winter for an upgrade at the 4/5 slot.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improves

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"




    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts.  One of the keys to our hopeful success is not to over stress  the bullpen.  Felix needs to go deeper in games, but he did seem to recover nicely after that poor first inning on Saturday and Lackey today also recovered after a long first inning.  I do wish our pitchers could avoid those first inning hiccups.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to seabeachfred's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improves

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"

     




    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts.  One of the keys to our hopeful success is not to over stress  the bullpen.  Felix needs to go deeper in games, but he did seem to recover nicely after that poor first inning on Saturday and Lackey today also recovered after a long first inning.  I do wish our pitchers could avoid those first inning hiccups.

     

     




     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to seabeachfred's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improves

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"

     




    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts.  One of the keys to our hopeful success is not to over stress  the bullpen.  Felix needs to go deeper in games, but he did seem to recover nicely after that poor first inning on Saturday and Lackey today also recovered after a long first inning.  I do wish our pitchers could avoid those first inning hiccups.

     

     



    Cut down on his walks?

    He walked 4 batters per 9 innings last years, and this years he has walked 5 per 9.

    Start by start:

    4/5  5.0 IP  0 BB

    4/16 5.0 IP  4 BB

    4/22 6.2 IP  5 BB

    4/27  6.2 IP  4 BB

    Maybe there is a slight improvement from game 2 to game 4, but he's still worse than 2012.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm really close to giving up on Doubront.

     




    gotta admit he recoverd nicely last nicght to give them almost 7IP. When a pitcher starts off that bad with 30+ pitches in the 1st inning, only to recover and give the team almost 7IP and basically shut the other team down, thats a good sign.

     



    It was a great sign, Southpaw.  He settled down nicely after the first.  Show me a young lefty who throws 95 who didn't struggle with his command early in his career.  He's pitched into the 7th in his last 2 starts and hasn't given up more than 3 in a game in his last 8 starts going back to last season.  He said after the game that he started thinking too much in the first, which is also common for young pitchers.  He's as good as it gets as far as #5s go, and he's got the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy some day.  When you factor in that he's cost controlled, he could be a mainstay in this rotation for a long time.  

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubie's averaged 5.6 innings per start this year and 102.5 pitches (18.3 pitches per IP).

    Last year, he was at 5.6 IP/GS and 98.9 pitches per start (17.8 pitches per IP).

    Sorry, the numbers don't add up.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubie's averaged 5.6 innings per start this year and 102.5 pitches (18.3 pitches per IP).

    Last year, he was at 5.6 IP/GS and 98.9 pitches per start (17.8 pitches per IP).

    Sorry, the numbers don't add up.

     

     



    He's a young lefty with terrific stuff who has had struggles with his command, which is very common.  There are scouts who  like his stuff better than Sabathia's, another hard throwing lefty who had his struggles when he was young.  Moon, you clearly don't like the guy (I found it amusing that you predicted Houston would score 6 runs in his last start), but he's likely here to stay, barring injury.  

     

    If Doubront drives you crazy, imagine how maddening it must be to watch Brandon McCarthy this year.  He 's been pretty brutal and actually needed 102 pitches to get through 4 innings in one of his starts.  I actually like the kid and wish him well, but you have to wonder if he's another guy who'll never be the same after a line drive to the face...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't foresee them messing with Doubront, but that does not change my view on him. There certainly are worse 5 slot starters out there.

    I think Lackey has won the 4 slot after just 2 starts this year. He may be in the 3 slot by summer.



    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I don't foresee them messing with Doubront, but that does not change my view on him. There certainly are worse 5 slot starters out there.

    I think Lackey has won the 4 slot after just 2 starts this year. He may be in the 3 slot by summer.

     



    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    IMO, Dempster is #3, Lackey ( through no fault of his own )is #4- this could very well change by next month.

    Dont want to make excuses for Doubront, but since he's come-up there has been a bit of a catcher transition he's had to deal w/ ( 7 different catchers ) & (maybe to a lesser degree) 3 different managers. Things that might not effect a veteran as much, but a 22-25 yr old? IDK? 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

     

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

     

     



    I like Tuesday's pitching match-up too. Lester vs. Morrow? makes me want to pencil in 19-7 & break off the eraser. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Red Sox look formidable with their impressive 18-7 start, but after 25 games last year the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers sported 17-8 records.

    My point is that it's a long season.

     
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