A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improves

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"




    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts.  One of the keys to our hopeful success is not to over stress  the bullpen.  Felix needs to go deeper in games, but he did seem to recover nicely after that poor first inning on Saturday and Lackey today also recovered after a long first inning.  I do wish our pitchers could avoid those first inning hiccups.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to seabeachfred's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improves

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"

     




    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts.  One of the keys to our hopeful success is not to over stress  the bullpen.  Felix needs to go deeper in games, but he did seem to recover nicely after that poor first inning on Saturday and Lackey today also recovered after a long first inning.  I do wish our pitchers could avoid those first inning hiccups.

     

     




     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to seabeachfred's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubront has been a decent #4 pitcher so far with 3 wins and a 4.20 ERA isn't that bad. Hopefully he will keep improving as he is still young and cheap. We have to factor in the cost in these equations and he cost next to nothing for a starting pitcher. What if he does continue to develop? He will be a valuable contributor to the tream for years to come or a solid trade piece. At minimum probably good starter depth with options. His stuff, age, experience all indicate he will improves

    I see no indication of improvement. Yes, he has the talent, but he looks no better now than he was 2 years ago. His BB/9 has gone up from 4.0 to 5.0 from 2012 to 2013. It's early, but as The Smith's once sang, "How Soon Is Now?"

     




    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts.  One of the keys to our hopeful success is not to over stress  the bullpen.  Felix needs to go deeper in games, but he did seem to recover nicely after that poor first inning on Saturday and Lackey today also recovered after a long first inning.  I do wish our pitchers could avoid those first inning hiccups.

     

     



    Cut down on his walks?

    He walked 4 batters per 9 innings last years, and this years he has walked 5 per 9.

    Start by start:

    4/5  5.0 IP  0 BB

    4/16 5.0 IP  4 BB

    4/22 6.2 IP  5 BB

    4/27  6.2 IP  4 BB

    Maybe there is a slight improvement from game 2 to game 4, but he's still worse than 2012.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm really close to giving up on Doubront.

     




    gotta admit he recoverd nicely last nicght to give them almost 7IP. When a pitcher starts off that bad with 30+ pitches in the 1st inning, only to recover and give the team almost 7IP and basically shut the other team down, thats a good sign.

     



    It was a great sign, Southpaw.  He settled down nicely after the first.  Show me a young lefty who throws 95 who didn't struggle with his command early in his career.  He's pitched into the 7th in his last 2 starts and hasn't given up more than 3 in a game in his last 8 starts going back to last season.  He said after the game that he started thinking too much in the first, which is also common for young pitchers.  He's as good as it gets as far as #5s go, and he's got the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy some day.  When you factor in that he's cost controlled, he could be a mainstay in this rotation for a long time.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubie's averaged 5.6 innings per start this year and 102.5 pitches (18.3 pitches per IP).

    Last year, he was at 5.6 IP/GS and 98.9 pitches per start (17.8 pitches per IP).

    Sorry, the numbers don't add up.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Doubie's averaged 5.6 innings per start this year and 102.5 pitches (18.3 pitches per IP).

    Last year, he was at 5.6 IP/GS and 98.9 pitches per start (17.8 pitches per IP).

    Sorry, the numbers don't add up.

     

     



    He's a young lefty with terrific stuff who has had struggles with his command, which is very common.  There are scouts who  like his stuff better than Sabathia's, another hard throwing lefty who had his struggles when he was young.  Moon, you clearly don't like the guy (I found it amusing that you predicted Houston would score 6 runs in his last start), but he's likely here to stay, barring injury.  

     

    If Doubront drives you crazy, imagine how maddening it must be to watch Brandon McCarthy this year.  He 's been pretty brutal and actually needed 102 pitches to get through 4 innings in one of his starts.  I actually like the kid and wish him well, but you have to wonder if he's another guy who'll never be the same after a line drive to the face...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't foresee them messing with Doubront, but that does not change my view on him. There certainly are worse 5 slot starters out there.

    I think Lackey has won the 4 slot after just 2 starts this year. He may be in the 3 slot by summer.



    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I don't foresee them messing with Doubront, but that does not change my view on him. There certainly are worse 5 slot starters out there.

    I think Lackey has won the 4 slot after just 2 starts this year. He may be in the 3 slot by summer.

     



    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    IMO, Dempster is #3, Lackey ( through no fault of his own )is #4- this could very well change by next month.

    Dont want to make excuses for Doubront, but since he's come-up there has been a bit of a catcher transition he's had to deal w/ ( 7 different catchers ) & (maybe to a lesser degree) 3 different managers. Things that might not effect a veteran as much, but a 22-25 yr old? IDK? 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

     

     



    I like Tuesday's pitching match-up too. Lester vs. Morrow? makes me want to pencil in 19-7 & break off the eraser. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Red Sox look formidable with their impressive 18-7 start, but after 25 games last year the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers sported 17-8 records.

    My point is that it's a long season.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

    I like Tuesday's pitching match-up too. Lester vs. Morrow? makes me want to pencil in 19-7 & break off the eraser. 




    Exactly emp9    :)

    Especially against a struggling Blue Jays team.  They look like the LA Lakers--confused and lost.   LOL

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    18-7 for the month of April.  

    Also, no unnecessary drama this year.  Just a bunch of guys who want to play hard and have fun!!!   Cool

    I like Tuesday's pitching match-up too. Lester vs. Morrow? makes me want to pencil in 19-7 & break off the eraser. 

     




     

    Exactly emp9    :)

    Especially against a struggling Blue Jays team.  They look like the LA Lakers--confused and lost.   LOL



    I dont think the Sox have ever stolen a base against Morrow. This might change come Tuesday. I like the HR as much as the next person, but I hate waiting for one. That feeling seems mutual w/ this team under Farrell. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     



    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lackey is our #3 SP; Dempster is our #4. Doubront is our #5 but is expendable. Wonder how Doubront compares to other #5 SP in the AL.

     



    Well, ERA+ is a nice simple measure.  Doubront's is exactly 100 right now.  I doubt there are many #5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 or better.

     

     



    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

     

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.



    Too funny, Moon.  We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy.  I'd say he settled down.  In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon.  The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.

    Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way.  There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters.  He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.  

    You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control.  I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Like our friend Jid has basically said to me 'he's left-handed' what do you expect?..LOL

    Actually, there might be something to that.  It seems that most lefties(me included) have or had trouble with control.  If I'm not mistaken, Koufax and Whitey Ford had control issues early in their careers.  Look at Andrew Miller...great stuff...look at today's right fielder Ankiel...great stuff also, but just lost it.

    It irritates me when Doubront walks people, but I can understand.  And, he does have great potential like many posters here have said...and, he's cheap.  So, although it bothers me, I think we could give him a longer leash.

    Southpaw, I should have asked, did you have control issues?




    I never made it far enough to know ;) I was switched from pitcher to OF.  But I had a cannon for an arm with good accuracy, if that counts...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Like our friend Jid has basically said to me 'he's left-handed' what do you expect?..LOL

    Actually, there might be something to that.  It seems that most lefties(me included) have or had trouble with control.  If I'm not mistaken, Koufax and Whitey Ford had control issues early in their careers.  Look at Andrew Miller...great stuff...look at today's right fielder Ankiel...great stuff also, but just lost it.

    It irritates me when Doubront walks people, but I can understand.  And, he does have great potential like many posters here have said...and, he's cheap.  So, although it bothers me, I think we could give him a longer leash.

    Southpaw, I should have asked, did you have control issues?

     




    I never made it far enough to know ;) I was switched from pitcher to OF.  But I had a cannon for an arm with good accuracy, if that counts...

     




    Wow! It certainly does count!  A very impressive anomaly.  Smile

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront is certainly issuing too many walks.  But on the positive side he's only given up one long ball, and an OPS against of only .671.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.

     

    Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.

    He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).

    He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.

     



     

    Too funny, Moon.  We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy.  I'd say he settled down.  In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon.  The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.

    I have plenty of patience. I was never for giving him away, but his attitude, conditioning, and BB issues led me to believe we could have traded him last winter for something better (by including other players).

    I know he "settled down", but the fact is, he's not going to keep a low 4.2 something ERA by walking batters nearly 13% of the time.

    I'm not saying he can't improve. As someone pointed out earlier, several great SPs had control issues early in their careers. I get that. I also get that this season is still a small sample size, but I was really hoping to see an improvement in his BB rate.

    Someone mentioned that he is walking less people this year. I was responding to that point by showing the facts show otherwise. He pitching more pitches per inning and walking 1 more batter per 9 than last year.

    Of course he can turn it around, but so far, I have seen no sign of it. I'm not fooled by one stat: ERA.

     

    Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way.  There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters.  He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.  

    I'm not cherry-picking stats, but I have never valued ERA more than WHIP.  BTW, he placed 77 out of 124 not 150 in ERA, but your point is still well taken; thus far, his ERA is very good for a 5 starter. His WHIP and BB% is near the bottom of the bottom.

     

    You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control.  I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year. 

    It's not just this past off season that concerned me. You know he must have heard a lot about his conditioning a couple winters ago, and then it happens again? Sorry, if I don't think people can change their attitudes that easily. I know they can, but it is rare indeed. 

    He could turn out to be a great pitcher, or at least a very good 3/4 slot SP, but I'm getting fed up with the walks, bunched up or not, and the conditioning issues.

    I'm not totally fed up. I know he is not likely to be traded, but I don't see his stock going up at all this year.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon--most of us know  that Doubrant has to cut down on his walks and the amount of pitches he throws during his starts   -seabeachfred

    This was mostly what I was responding to.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The AL East has the best record 1st place team, the best record 2nd place team, the best record 3rd place team, the best record 4th place team (in the AL only), but surprisingly the Blue Jays are bringing up the rear with the 3rd worst record in MLB!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    4/30 Lester vs Morrow  Sox 4-1

    5/1  Buch vs Buehrle  Jays 3-2

    5/2  Demp vs Happ  Sox 9-4

    5/3  Doub vs Holland  Rangers 7-5

    5/4  Lackey vs Ogando Sox 8-3

    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The AL East has the best record 1st place team, the best record 2nd place team, the best record 3rd place team, the best record 4th place team (in the AL only), but surprisingly the Blue Jays are bringing up the rear with the 3rd worst record in MLB!



    I dont know about The Blue Jays, but The Blue Reyes were pretty impressive. 

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    4/30 Lester vs Morrow  Sox 4-1

    5/1  Buch vs Buehrle  Jays 3-2

    5/2  Demp vs Happ  Sox 9-4

    5/3  Doub vs Holland  Rangers 7-5

    5/4  Lackey vs Ogando Sox 8-3

    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???


    5/5 Lester vs ???  ???

    Guessing Darvish. I think Sox win 3-2 or lose ... 3-2.

     
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