Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 4/29/2013 7:46 PM EDT
There are 124 MLB SPs with over 20 IP this year.
Doubront is slotted at #98 in WHIP.
He's #119 in BB% (12.6%).
He's #77 in ERA... not bad for a 5th starter, but if keeps walking guys at a 13% rate, it will be going up, up, and away.
Too funny, Moon. We can all manipulate stats. Doubront walked 3 guys in the first, 1 in the second and then pitched into the 7th without walking another guy. I'd say he settled down. In his first start, he didn't walk anybody, in another start, 3 of his walks were in one inning again. They are going to change his pre-game routine to see if it helps, but again, he's a 25 year-old lefty with filthy stuff, so don't expect them to be "trading" this guy any time soon. The "patience" on this board is non-existent, but still, give the guy a chance to develop.
I have plenty of patience. I was never for giving him away, but his attitude, conditioning, and BB issues led me to believe we could have traded him last winter for something better (by including other players).
I know he "settled down", but the fact is, he's not going to keep a low 4.2 something ERA by walking batters nearly 13% of the time.
I'm not saying he can't improve. As someone pointed out earlier, several great SPs had control issues early in their careers. I get that. I also get that this season is still a small sample size, but I was really hoping to see an improvement in his BB rate.
Someone mentioned that he is walking less people this year. I was responding to that point by showing the facts show otherwise. He pitching more pitches per inning and walking 1 more batter per 9 than last year.
Of course he can turn it around, but so far, I have seen no sign of it. I'm not fooled by one stat: ERA.
Also, let's look at his "not bad for a #5" e.r.a another way. There are 30 teams with a 5 man rotation, which means there should be 150 "regular" starters. He's in the middle at #77, so I'd say he's not bad for a #3 starter so far.
I'm not cherry-picking stats, but I have never valued ERA more than WHIP. BTW, he placed 77 out of 124 not 150 in ERA, but your point is still well taken; thus far, his ERA is very good for a 5 starter. His WHIP and BB% is near the bottom of the bottom.
You are a little hung up on the WHIP thing, but the fact that half of his walks this year occurred in two innings of work should temper the concern a little. I realize that you don't like the guy because his off-season workout plans don't impress you, but he's young, talented and under team control. I don't see him going anywhere, especially when you consider they will likely extend Lester by the end of this year and Buchholz by the end of next year.
It's not just this past off season that concerned me. You know he must have heard a lot about his conditioning a couple winters ago, and then it happens again? Sorry, if I don't think people can change their attitudes that easily. I know they can, but it is rare indeed.
He could turn out to be a great pitcher, or at least a very good 3/4 slot SP, but I'm getting fed up with the walks, bunched up or not, and the conditioning issues.
I'm not totally fed up. I know he is not likely to be traded, but I don't see his stock going up at all this year.