A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Good to see Gomes get a couple hits and a BB. His OBP is now at .377, so that .208 BA is not as bad as it looks.



    To quote Brad Pitt (Billy Beane) in the movie, "Moneyball",

    "But he gets on base!!!"   LOL

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    1) YOU MEAN "BALL THROWING LEFTIES" RIGHT?

     

    2) His injuries can be partially blamed on poor conditioning of his own doing.

    3) Nobody doubts the fact that Doubront has the talent to be an ace. You are not alone on that, but countless pitchers have had the talent, but never even became a good #5 starter.

     



    You may be accurate, but could have at least acknowledged 2013's vastly improved hits / innings pitched rate, microscopic change lower in WHIP, and absence of HR allowed.

     

    Yes, his H/9 rate has gone down by slightly more than his BB/9 has gone up.  BBs are bettter to allow than hits, so there has been a slight overall imprpovement, but forgive me if I never ever gush over any pitcher who walks 5 guys per 9 IP.

     

    Guess we'll have to stop quibbling. We're both right , just glass half/full versus half/empty. As a recovering Expos fan I remember RHP Floyd Youmans , part of Hubie Brooks for Gary Carter deal w' Mets. Youmans had short relatively undistinguished career, but in best year was almost impossible to hit yet walked the clubhouse, LOL. However I believe he beat Gooden TWICE the year Doc was 24-4.


    Men already on base only advance at most one base from a BB, versus 1-3 from a hit. What was your take on my Mike Carp as potential 2002 model D. Ortiz on softy's Carp thread ?  As someone who examines stats and historical parallels I value your opinions over most posters hereabouts.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Men already on base only advance at most one base from a BB, versus 1-3 from a hit. What was your take on my Mike Carp as potential 2002 model D. Ortiz on softy's Carp thread ?  As someone who examines stats and historical parallels I value your opinions over most posters hereabouts.

    I don't see it, but you never know. 

    Althoughb the Twins let Papi walk, he had shown signs of being a hitter while with them... over longer periods of time than Carp has in 2013. Papi had almost 1700 PAs in MN with an OPS over .800 and was pretty concistent in limited (platoon) duty there in several small sample size seasons.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Remember that due to injuries Doubront is a really young 25 in terms of ML innings pitched. His BB rate IS too high, but his hits allowed in 2013 are down significantly from (sm.sam.sz.) his career, and his WHIP reflects this. His K/ I.P. #'s are fabulous , and mid-order hitters seem to fail against him inordinately vs. top-  and bottom-order hitters . Concentration / bearing down when necessary ?

    His last start's 2nd inning-on turnaround suggests increasing maturity and resolve to me ( though it could've just been luck). Not saying he'll ever be another Koufax or Randy J. but give the kid a break. A 12-15 win 200 inning 200 strikeout Number 4 starter is still pretty darn good, especially for $ 520 K per year !

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    1) YOU MEAN "BALL THROWING LEFTIES" RIGHT?

     

    2) His injuries can be partially blamed on poor conditioning of his own doing.

    3) Nobody doubts the fact that Doubront has the talent to be an ace. You are not alone on that, but countless pitchers have had the talent, but never even became a good #5 starter.

     



    You may be accurate, but could have at least acknowledged 2013's vastly improved hits / innings pitched rate, microscopic change lower in WHIP, and absence of HR allowed.

     

    Yes, his H/9 rate has gone down by slightly more than his BB/9 has gone up.  BBs are bettter to allow than hits, so there has been a slight overall imprpovement, but forgive me if I never ever gush over any pitcher who walks 5 guys per 9 IP.

     

     

    Guess we'll have to stop quibbling. We're both right , just glass half/full versus half/empty. As a recovering Expos fan I remember RHP Floyd Youmans , part of Hubie Brooks for Gary Carter deal w' Mets. Youmans had short relatively undistinguished career, but in best year was almost impossible to hit yet walked the clubhouse, LOL. However I believe he beat Gooden TWICE the year Doc was 24-4.

     

    Any new thoughts on Doubie after tonights game?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Very very ugly outing for Doub.  And certainly one that raises questions about his place in the rotation.  He has to do much much better his next couple of starts.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Remember that due to injuries Doubront is a really young 25 in terms of ML innings pitched. His BB rate IS too high, but his hits allowed in 2013 are down significantly from (sm.sam.sz.) his career, and his WHIP reflects this. His K/ I.P. #'s are fabulous , and mid-order hitters seem to fail against him inordinately vs. top-  and bottom-order hitters . Concentration / bearing down when necessary ?

    His last start's 2nd inning-on turnaround suggests increasing maturity and resolve to me ( though it could've just been luck). Not saying he'll ever be another Koufax or Randy J. but give the kid a break. A 12-15 win 200 inning 200 strikeout Number 4 starter is still pretty darn good, especially for $ 520 K per year !

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    1) YOU MEAN "BALL THROWING LEFTIES" RIGHT?

     

    2) His injuries can be partially blamed on poor conditioning of his own doing.

    3) Nobody doubts the fact that Doubront has the talent to be an ace. You are not alone on that, but countless pitchers have had the talent, but never even became a good #5 starter.

     



    You may be accurate, but could have at least acknowledged 2013's vastly improved hits / innings pitched rate, microscopic change lower in WHIP, and absence of HR allowed.

     

    Yes, his H/9 rate has gone down by slightly more than his BB/9 has gone up.  BBs are bettter to allow than hits, so there has been a slight overall imprpovement, but forgive me if I never ever gush over any pitcher who walks 5 guys per 9 IP.

     

     

    Guess we'll have to stop quibbling. We're both right , just glass half/full versus half/empty. As a recovering Expos fan I remember RHP Floyd Youmans , part of Hubie Brooks for Gary Carter deal w' Mets. Youmans had short relatively undistinguished career, but in best year was almost impossible to hit yet walked the clubhouse, LOL. However I believe he beat Gooden TWICE the year Doc was 24-4.

     

    Any new thoughts on Doubie after tonights game?


    Yes . Loss of velocity is VERY troubling , unless just a blip / bad night. Will you be satisfied with only his immediate outright release ?  Or forced return to Boston in chains, pending public execution, lol ?  Since no remaining options , I believe.

    We may see Webster back up much sooner than many ( including me ) would prefer. Also, read & comment : Player D : 1693  Pl. Ap. 266 / 348 / 461......Player C : 639 Pl. Ap.  265 /336 /442.     Similiar ?   ( cheated & included 2013's  #'s for player C )  But the major eye-opener to me was age & timing of " breakout " or "put it all together " years by both players in A+ , AA , and AAA levels. C was consistently one year older than D at each perceived " leap forward ".
    Am probably reaching here, but what if ?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Very very ugly outing for Doub.  And certainly one that raises questions about his place in the rotation.  He has to do much much better his next couple of starts.




    Ive been all in for giving Doubie the BOTD, but with a close eye on him. His drop in velocity and lack of control are a BIG concern for me. He did come into camp out of shape and with an existing shoulder issue that got him off to a slow start. I imagine he will be examined, and if nothing is found, he will make his next start against the twinkies next week. I do believe we will see Webster called up sooner rather than later by the way things look as of right now.

    Hopefully its nothing serious.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Good job by Wilson and Mortsensen mopping up last night for 4.1 innings, saving all our better bullpen arms and giving us a better chance to win tonight.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Any new thoughts on Doubie after tonights game?

     


    Yes . Loss of velocity is VERY troubling , unless just a blip / bad night. Will you be satisfied with only his immediate outright release ?  Or forced return to Boston in chains, pending public execution, lol ?  Since no remaining options , I believe.

     

    Come on. I'm not even for replacing Doubront right now.

    I have continually said I think there is still plenty of time to get his act together, and since I thought this was a "bridge year", I was not concerned about him using this season as a testing ground to work on improving his WHIP, or most natably his BB/9.

    We do not know if Doubront will follow the Lester model and turn it around any second now. I'm OK with waiting it out, but if this team continues to play well and look like serious contenders, then a move may need to be made to replace Doubront. Even if that day comes sooner than I think, I'd never cut Doubront. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    By the way, my view on Doubront did not change one bit after last night. I do not judge by one game, one week, or one month sample sizes.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    His average line in 5 starts this year:

    5.1 IP  6H  3 BB

    It's only 5 starts, so I'm not making any definitive judgements, but I'm not encouraged by the trend (1.704 WHIP this year).

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon.....I know you're not one to panic or overreact, just couldn't help injecting a little humor. But some around here probably do wish to trade him for a warm sixpack, forthwith.

    This whole surprise early contention when we're supposedly re-building thing can really complicate strategic planning , huh ?   Shorter leash on underperformers , probable rushing of valuable prospect's development, even potential trades of prospects to fill holes at July deadline.

    Just ONE example :  IF we could somehow sign Ellsbury to a contract before mid-July ( and we'd need the time to evaluate offer size ) I'd be okay trading Bradley Jr, Barnes, and some combo of lesser pieces for a serious power-hitting r/h outfielder . 

    It will be a very exciting next 2 and 1/2 months as Ben C. attempts to plot the best course.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jimedfred's comment:

    Moon.....I know you're not one to panic or overreact, just couldn't help injecting a little humor. But some around here probably do wish to trade him for a warm sixpack, forthwith.

    This whole surprise early contention when we're supposedly re-building thing can really complicate strategic planning , huh ?   Shorter leash on underperformers , probable rushing of valuable prospect's development, even potential trades of prospects to fill holes at July deadline.

    Just ONE example :  IF we could somehow sign Ellsbury to a contract before mid-July ( and we'd need the time to evaluate offer size ) I'd be okay trading Bradley Jr, Barnes, and some combo of lesser pieces for a serious power-hitting r/h outfielder . 

    It will be a very exciting next 2 and 1/2 months as Ben C. attempts to plot the best course.



    I'm not for extending Ellsbury at anywhere near what he will be demanding or getting eventually.

    I was fine with trading JBJ this past winter (see my J Upton offers). His ST did get me excited, and I did want him as our starting CF'er in 2013, but only after spending the required amount of time in AAA to gain the extra year of team control.

    I'd think harder about trading Barnes. I'd look to trade Brentz, Coyle, Britton, Lavarnway, but most pitchers should not be traded unless the return is higher.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Rangers seem to have our number: time to turn the tides.

    Go Lackey!

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Doubront spent most of his minor league career pitching at 90-91. Then the last year or 2 up to 95.

    This year we have hgh testing and he's back to 90-91.

    Hmmmm.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Doubront spent most of his minor league career pitching at 90-91. Then the last year or 2 up to 95.

    This year we have hgh testing and he's back to 90-91.

    Hmmmm.




    He was throwing 94 in his first few starts. Dont think it was that.

    Its his conditioning. or lack there of.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Losing 3 mph in a week is not good though. Even I'm starting to think Webster would be a better option right now. Doubront is not going to be nearly as effective pitching 89-91.                                                                      

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Doubront spent most of his minor league career pitching at 90-91. Then the last year or 2 up to 95.

    This year we have hgh testing and he's back to 90-91.

    Hmmmm.




    Does Bautista come to mind?.....Hmmmmmm.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Lester vs Darvish

    Showdown.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A couple of thoughts before bed:  Pedroia needs to hit second in the order. This is where he is best suited. He is not an RBI guy. He is hurting the team in the three hole. Drop Shane down and hit Pedroia second, Ortiz third and Napoli fourth. Middlebrooks needs to grab some pine. Play Ciriaco a few games and let Will sit. Maybe this will help him. It is becoming painful to watch him. Seriously consider promoting Lavarnway , and moving Salty or Ross. Do not give Doubront more than one more start unless he shows improvement.  Maybe put him on the D. L. and give Webster the shot. The team is off to a very good start , but the warts are starting to show. It is time to do some tweaking. Good night. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Losing 3 mph in a week is not good though. Even I'm starting to think Webster would be a better option right now. Doubront is not going to be nearly as effective pitching 89-91.                                                                      




    100% agree. Plus with a weak arm his off speed stuff wont be as effective either.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    A couple of thoughts before bed:  Pedroia needs to hit second in the order. This is where he is best suited. He is not an RBI guy. He is hurting the team in the three hole. Drop Shane down and hit Pedroia second, Ortiz third and Napoli fourth. Middlebrooks needs to grab some pine. Play Ciriaco a few games and let Will sit. Maybe this will help him. It is becoming painful to watch him. Seriously consider promoting Lavarnway , and moving Salty or Ross. Do not give Doubront more than one more start unless he shows improvement.  Maybe put him on the D. L. and give Webster the shot. The team is off to a very good start , but the warts are starting to show. It is time to do some tweaking. Good night. 




    I agree about pedey back at #2. Vic can help balance the bottom of the lineup IMO.

    Doubie should get checked out and possibly DL'd until they figure it out. Agree, Webster gets a couple starts in his place.

    Im not for getting rid of Salty just yet. His offense is better than last year, but it looks like he took a step back behind the plate after improving a lot last year on his D.

    Stay with WMB. Ciriaco will be a worse option. Even though Middy isnt on his game 100%, his defense is still better than PC as well as his offense.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Very very ugly outing for Doub.  And certainly one that raises questions about his place in the rotation.  He has to do much much better his next couple of starts.




    Two more starts-three at the very most-where he does not show significant improvement and he should be buried at Pawtucket via the DL until he learns to throw strikes. If we didn't have other options we would have to suffer through watching more of the same crap from Doubront; fortunately, we do have options.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Very very ugly outing for Doub.  And certainly one that raises questions about his place in the rotation.  He has to do much much better his next couple of starts.

     




    Two more starts-three at the very most-where he does not show significant improvement and he should be buried at Pawtucket via the DL until he learns to throw strikes. If we didn't have other options we would have to suffer through watching more of the same crap from Doubront; fortunately, we do have options.

     




    That weak arm might concern Farrell enough to DL him before his next start. Maybe not, but i think if he does make another start and has the same issues, a DL stint is inevitable

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Very very ugly outing for Doub.  And certainly one that raises questions about his place in the rotation.  He has to do much much better his next couple of starts.

     




    Two more starts-three at the very most-where he does not show significant improvement and he should be buried at Pawtucket via the DL until he learns to throw strikes. If we didn't have other options we would have to suffer through watching more of the same crap from Doubront; fortunately, we do have options.

     

     




    That weak arm might concern Farrell enough to DL him before his next start. Maybe not, but i think if he does make another start and has the same issues, a DL stint is inevitable

     



    The drop in velocity is definitely a concern SP. Wonder if he is experiencing "dead arm" or something like that. If he had a real injury I don't think they would have left him in the game that long. We'll see; there are other options.

     

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