A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...



    Thats a great point many probably overlook amp.  Nava's D has been great, if he continues to produce offensively without "nose diving" again like last season he has become a very valuable player to our club.  I have said the same about Salty, I'm a huge OBP fan, others like overall OPS but when you look at our 04 and 07 championships, our team OBP was right around the .370 mark.  That may never be done with this club but a higher team OBP leads to much more consistency on a daily basis. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...

     



    Thats a great point many probably overlook amp.  Nava's D has been great, if he continues to produce offensively without "nose diving" again like last season he has become a very valuable player to our club.  I have said the same about Salty, I'm a huge OBP fan, others like overall OPS but when you look at our 04 and 07 championships, our team OBP was right around the .370 mark.  That may never be done with this club but a higher team OBP leads to much more consistency on a daily basis. 

     



    Great point, and while I use OPS a lot, I do recognize that the OBP component is of more value than the SLG%. Still, OPS is a slightly better stat to use than just OBP alone.

    Salty's high K rate does not concern me at all, id he can keep his OBP above .325. At least he's not hitting into DPs if he K's. The amount of times players with very low K rates move a player over with an out is so minimal, that I think the K rate argument is pretty lame. How many times does the guy even end up scoring after being moved over? 

    Certainly not enough times to be of more value than a 30-45 point increase in OBP and a few less GIDPs.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...

     



    Thats a great point many probably overlook amp.  Nava's D has been great, if he continues to produce offensively without "nose diving" again like last season he has become a very valuable player to our club.  I have said the same about Salty, I'm a huge OBP fan, others like overall OPS but when you look at our 04 and 07 championships, our team OBP was right around the .370 mark.  That may never be done with this club but a higher team OBP leads to much more consistency on a daily basis. 

     

     



    Great point, and while I use OPS a lot, I do recognize that the OBP component is of more value than the SLG%. Still, OPS is a slightly better stat to use than just OBP alone.

     

    Salty's high K rate does not concern me at all, id he can keep his OBP above .325. At least he's not hitting into DPs if he K's. The amount of times players with very low K rates move a player over with an out is so minimal, that I think the K rate argument is pretty lame. How many times does the guy even end up scoring after being moved over? 

    Certainly not enough times to be of more value than a 30-45 point increase in OBP and a few less GIDPs.

     



    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis.  I also think if Salty's plate discipline improves so will his SLG percentage which would make him quite valuable, much like Tek during his prime.  No doubt SO's are obviously much less hurtful as long as you don't swing at bad pitches all the time, or keep hitting into double plays.  With that said, it doesn't help when your team is third in the majors in SO's either, with 8 more K's today it still kills us.

    Nava and Salty's consistency could mean the difference between being expendable, or just the type of players our lineup needs to find the missing OBP our championship teams had. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Oh tell me about. DP= The inning killer. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis. 

    As long as his SLG% stay around .475 to .500, I'm happy with a .325 OBP from a catcher. The MLB average OBP since 2011? .321, .319, & .318.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis. 

    As long as his SLG% stay around .475 to .500, I'm happy with a .325 OBP from a catcher. The MLB average OBP since 2011? .321, .319, & .318.

     



    moon,

     

    If Salty can raise his OBP 30 to 40 points this season it would be a major accomplishment.  As far as settling for the the league average?  With me it all depends on our supporting staff.  You and I have both said many times this team lacks another big bat.  My opinion of a big bat has to be a guy somewhere close to Manny and Davids OBP and power to make a real difference.  

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis. 

    As long as his SLG% stay around .475 to .500, I'm happy with a .325 OBP from a catcher. The MLB average OBP since 2011? .321, .319, & .318.

     



    moon,

     

    If Salty can raise his OBP 30 to 40 points this season it would be a major accomplishment.  As far as settling for the the league average?  With me it all depends on our supporting staff.  You and I have both said many times this team lacks another big bat.  My opinion of a big bat has to be a guy somewhere close to Manny and Davids OBP and power to make a real difference.  

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     

     



    Actually, I was wrong on my numbers. I was looking at the overall league OBP since 2011. The catcher OBP has been .314, .319 & .311 since 2011, so if Salty can stay above .325, he'd be considerably better than average there.

    The reason I am fine with Salty being at the league average on OBP, is because the % has been about .395 since 2011. Surely Salty's .457 SLG% since 2011, which is about 50 points above the league catcher SLG%, makes up for the average OBP, assuming he stays at or above the league average this year and going forward.

    There are 28 catchers with 650 PAs since 2011. Salty ranks 5th behind Napoli (no longer a catcher), Posey, Molina, and Santana in slg%.

    Only 19 catchers have 500+ PAs since 2012, including Napoli. Salty places 6th in catcher slg% at .462. (of course the .297 OBP places him 15th, but his current .337 OBP would place him 7th.

    I'm not sure he can sustain a .325+ OBP, but it's encouraging to see him walking more often.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     



    The Sox have the second highest OBP in the majors.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     

     



    The Sox have the second highest OBP in the majors.

     



    Fangraphs has this....

    1) Detroit  .352

    2) Boston  .345

    3) Colorado  .337

    4) Oakland  .331

    9) TBR  .326

    13) NYY   .323

     

    FYI: Slg%

    1) Cleve  .471

    2) Colorado .446

    3) Boston  .445

    7) NYY  .427

    10) TBR  .412

     

    OPS

    1) Cleve  .802

    2) Boston .789

    3) Detroit .786

    7) NYY  .750

    10) TBR .738

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    moon

    just wanted to let you know

    that I'm pretty close to apologizing 2 U

    for laughing so hard at your overbay / teix comment

    while I still don't agree

    your comment certainly has merit at this point

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

    moon

    just wanted to let you know

    that I'm pretty close to apologizing 2 U

    for laughing so hard at your overbay / teix comment

    while I still don't agree

    your comment certainly has merit at this point



    While my Yankee comments were a bit tongue and cheek, I was serious about the SS fielding upgrade and the fact that ARod and tex have been in a serious and steady decline for something like 3-4 seasons straight. I never expected Overbay to do better than even Tex's depressed recent numbers, but so far, his .811 OPS is better than Tex's 2012 OPS of .811.

    I doubt it stays there, but I do think if Tex were healthy and playing all year, his OPS would have been sub 700 for the first time in his career.

    Hafner .939, Cervelli .877, and Wells on pace for 30+ HRs are some guys you have to wonder about keeping it up.

    Only 2 starting pitchers with an ERA under 4.00. If it wasn't the Yankees, I'd say it has been smoke and mirrors, but I know better. The Yanks are not going to fade away anytime soon.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Big road trip coming up:

    3 @ TB

    3 @ MN

    3 @ CWS

    then home for 4 vs Cleve and 2 vs Philly, the back on the road for:

    2 @ Philly

    3 @ NYY

    That's 14 of the next 20 on the road.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Maybe they'll play better away, sometimes I think they start pressing when they're losing at home . . . fingers crossed.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moore, Price and Cobb...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    And we'll have what? Lackey Buch Lester?  We could win 2 of those.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    And we'll have what? Lackey Buch Lester?  We could win 2 of those.



    Doubront , Lackey and Lester. We will be be satisfied with one win. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Believe the Sox plan is to skip Doubront's start.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Believe the Sox plan is to skip Doubront's start.



    You might be right , but Doubront is still listed as a probable starter in the series. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    Believe the Sox plan is to skip Doubront's start.

     



    You might be right , but Doubront is still listed as a probable starter in the series. 

     



    Then that just pushes Doubie to the MN series.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Yeah, that's true, can't hide him forever.  As poor a start as Webster had, I'd still rather he'd take the hill than Doubront.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Yeah, that's true, can't hide him forever.  As poor a start as Webster had, I'd still rather he'd take the hill than Doubront.


    It's interesting that despite his 6.40 ERA this season, Felix Doubront has a better FIP* (2.82) than Jon Lester (3.26), presumably in part because of Doubront's BABIP** of .420:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1478&position=P

    The sample of 32.1 innings is small, and I'm not a big Doubront fan, but the lefthander might be pitching better than the traditional stats suggest.

    * Fielding Independent Pitching as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

    ** Batting Average on Ball in Plays as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Yeah, that's true, can't hide him forever.  As poor a start as Webster had, I'd still rather he'd take the hill than Doubront.



    It's interesting that despite his 6.40 ERA this season, Felix Doubront has a better FIP* (2.82) than Jon Lester (3.26), presumably in part because of Doubront's BABIP** of .420:

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1478&position=P

    The sample of 32.1 innings is small, and I'm not a big Doubront fan, but the lefthander might be pitching better than the traditional stats suggest.

    * Fielding Independent Pitching as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

    ** Batting Average on Ball in Plays as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

     



    Doesn't FIP count K's highly as well?

    I think he's pitching about as badly as traditional stats imply.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Hill, You have forgotten more stats than I'll EVER know.  Yet, all the positive stats in the world couldn't convince me that Doubront is presently pitching decent.  He isn't.  I think a person would have to be blind to not see he's not pitching well.  Actually, a blind person could listen to the games and come to the same conclusion.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    TB, Bal, and the Yanks are all 7-3 in their last 10. We are 2-8.

    Time to turn the tides by taking 2 of 3 from the Rays. It won't be easy, but...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The kicker is, none of those teams other than maybe the Orioles have more talent, but they are getting timely hits.

    We have two good pitchers but could use a third badly as we have all discussed.  Ells needs to learn how to go to the opposite field more and bunt his way on because he's simply not a great leadoff guy. We have way too many SO's as a team and are beginniing to drop defensively.  I also think we made a bad move signing Gomes but could easily make a couple moves to improve some of these areas and still end up at the top of the division. 

    That's Ben's call, is he content until kids like Bradley, Bogy and Iggy are ready?  Or can/will he find ways to improve the present club to compete all season?

     
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