A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Well, we're coming back to the pack but are we really surprised?  Honestly, I'm not but like you Boom I'm not discouraged.  Actually, for some psychological reason I would rather we drop back and have to scrap for a while rather than lead all year and then flop.  Right now everyone is right, we have to stabilize this #5 slot and  hope Taz can close until Bailey gets back.  Taz could start, but then who do we use for a closer?  I think we can compete with the rest of the AL East if we can keep our pitching steady.  I think Aceves is a resource we aren't using right now.  What business, company, work site, etc. doesn't have an employee who for whatever reason is an under performer; sometimes someone finds the key and turns a negative into a positive.  As a teacher I have to do this with kids all the time, so maybe I'm more open to it happening.  I don't know how much he makes, but if I own the RS, I don't want that money poured down the hopper.  I think I would hire a full time shrink to work with my players and he would be first on the list.  If we can get a couple wins from our starters now, I think we're ok...I admit I don't know anything about pitching but I don't think De La Rosa is more ready that Webster; I wouldn't bring him up.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    De La Rosa has had a little success in the majors already. He is just coming back from TJ surgury or he would probably have been slotted ahead of Webster in the depth chart. Hopefully in another month his control will be back and he can help us some.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Let's hope Lester fills the stopper role tonight. We need to nip this slide in the bud.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We're only about 4 or 5 games away from the 1 quarter mark to the season!

    Some early stat observations:

     

    Bad: Ellsbury's .318 OBP is not even close to cutting it as a lead off man on a challenging team.

    Good: The Nava/Gomes platoon and OF/DH reserve combo is shaping up to be a huge offensive attribute to the team in an area expected by many to be a weakness.

       Nava: .297/.398/.515/.913 & Gomes .211/.361/.368/.729

     

    Bad: Our 5, 6 & 7 starting pitchers in 10 starts (IP H   ER  BB  K):

       Doubront  27.0  32  17  14  31

       Aceves     13.1  20   12  10   9

       Webster   7.2    11   11   4    7 

       Total:       48   63   40   28  47  ERA 7.50  WHIP  1.689

    Good: The bench has done exceptionally well:

       Carp 1.221 in 35 ABs, Iggy 1.026 OPS in 20 ABs, Ross .856 OPS in 41 ABs, Nava/Gomes (see above).

     

    Bad: Middlebrooks and his slow slow start- worsened by looking at the game logs and seeing he did almost all of his damage is 2 games. (.203/.237/.495/.732)

    Good: Victorino and his .375 OBP and fine fielding in RF.

     

    Bad: Pedey's loss of power (.395 SLG% and just 8 XBHs)

    Good: Pedey and his .420 OBP

     

    Bad: Drew's slow return (.244), but heating up now.

    Good: Papi's hot return (1.011 OPS)

     

    Bad: Injuries to Bailey, Breslow, Hanrahan and others.

    Good: Buch and Lester 11-0 (13-2 in their 15 starts)

     

    Bad: WHIP's above 1.445: Doubront, Webster, Aceves, Wislon, Miller, Breslow, Hanrahan, Wright, Bard

    Good: (Shockingly good) Bailey, Uehara, and Miller: 37 IP/58K (14.2 K/9)

     

    Bad: Napoli's .318 OBP.

    Good: Napoli's 32 RBIs.

     

    Bad: Salty's 3PB & 12 WP in just 203 innings (6 & 23 in 852 in '12)

    Good: Salty's .337 OBP & .832 OPS

     

    There is more, but these are some that jump out at me.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from CHUBBIE99. Show CHUBBIE99's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    We're only about 4 or 5 games away from the 1 quarter mark to the season!

    Some early stat observations:

     

    Bad: Ellsbury's .318 OBP is not even close to cutting it as a lead off man on a challenging team.

    Good: The Nava/Gomes platoon and OF/DH reserve combo is shaping up to be a huge offensive attribute to the team in an area expected by many to be a weakness.

       Nava: .297/.398/.515/.913 & Gomes .211/.361/.368/.729

     

    Bad: Our 5, 6 & 7 starting pitchers in 10 starts (IP H   ER  BB  K):

       Doubront  27.0  32  17  14  31

       Aceves     13.1  20   12  10   9

       Webster   7.2    11   11   4    7 

       Total:       48   63   40   28  47  ERA 7.50  WHIP  1.689

    Good: The bench has done exceptionally well:

       Carp 1.221 in 35 ABs, Iggy 1.026 OPS in 20 ABs, Ross .856 OPS in 41 ABs, Nava/Gomes (see above).

     

    Bad: Middlebrooks and his slow slow start- worsened by looking at the game logs and seeing he did almost all of his damage is 2 games. (.203/.237/.495/.732)

    Good: Victorino and his .375 OBP and fine fielding in RF.

     

    Bad: Pedey's loss of power (.395 SLG% and just 8 XBHs)

    Good: Pedey and his .420 OBP

     

    Bad: Drew's slow return (.244), but heating up now.

    Good: Papi's hot return (1.011 OPS)

     

    Bad: Injuries to Bailey, Breslow, Hanrahan and others.

    Good: Buch and Lester 11-0 (13-2 in their 15 starts)

     

    Bad: WHIP's above 1.445: Doubront, Webster, Aceves, Wislon, Miller, Breslow, Hanrahan, Wright, Bard

    Good: (Shockingly good) Bailey, Uehara, and Miller: 37 IP/58K (14.2 K/9)

     

    Bad: Napoli's .318 OBP.

    Good: Napoli's 32 RBIs.

     

    Bad: Salty's 3PB & 12 WP in just 203 innings (6 & 23 in 852 in '12)

    Good: Salty's .337 OBP & .832 OPS

     

    There is more, but these are some that jump out at me.


                      Thanks for the stats moon.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Some slugging from a select few:

    Carp  .800

    Papi  .634

    Ross  .537

    Nava .515

    Naps .514

    Salty .495

     

    Team catching SLG% is over .500 (3rd in MLB).

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    De La Rosa has had a little success in the majors already. He is just coming back from TJ surgury or he would probably have been slotted ahead of Webster in the depth chart. Hopefully in another month his control will be back and he can help us some.




    DLR is also on a strict innings limit. Webster I believe is not.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Cechinni is destroying Carolina league pitching. No one is even close to him in average, OBP and OPS.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...



    Good point. I'm sure there are more goods and bads that I missed.

    How about more fielding notes:

    Sox are 3rd in MLB in UZR/150 despite being 29th in 3B and 25th in catching UZR/150.

    RF: 1st by a landslide (surprising, since Shane missed some time)

    CF: 4th (Not a big surprise)

    SS: 7th (good surprise, but we'd be first if Ciricao's numbers were not included)

    1B: 10th (good surprise)

    2B: 11th (bad surprise)

    LF: 17th

    C: 25th

    3b: 29th

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Cechinni is destroying Carolina league pitching. No one is even close to him in average, OBP and OPS.

     



    He has been my "sleeper" prospect. Yes, he still needs to prove it at AA to be considered a real prospect, but add his speed to the numbers and he's looking like a gem.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to TV-Guy's comment:

    Why was Pumpsie banned from every other forum but this one?



    Too bad they can't ban all your IMs.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...



    Thats a great point many probably overlook amp.  Nava's D has been great, if he continues to produce offensively without "nose diving" again like last season he has become a very valuable player to our club.  I have said the same about Salty, I'm a huge OBP fan, others like overall OPS but when you look at our 04 and 07 championships, our team OBP was right around the .370 mark.  That may never be done with this club but a higher team OBP leads to much more consistency on a daily basis. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...

     



    Thats a great point many probably overlook amp.  Nava's D has been great, if he continues to produce offensively without "nose diving" again like last season he has become a very valuable player to our club.  I have said the same about Salty, I'm a huge OBP fan, others like overall OPS but when you look at our 04 and 07 championships, our team OBP was right around the .370 mark.  That may never be done with this club but a higher team OBP leads to much more consistency on a daily basis. 

     



    Great point, and while I use OPS a lot, I do recognize that the OBP component is of more value than the SLG%. Still, OPS is a slightly better stat to use than just OBP alone.

    Salty's high K rate does not concern me at all, id he can keep his OBP above .325. At least he's not hitting into DPs if he K's. The amount of times players with very low K rates move a player over with an out is so minimal, that I think the K rate argument is pretty lame. How many times does the guy even end up scoring after being moved over? 

    Certainly not enough times to be of more value than a 30-45 point increase in OBP and a few less GIDPs.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Besides everything else, Nava's defensive improvement has to recognized somewhere...

     



    Thats a great point many probably overlook amp.  Nava's D has been great, if he continues to produce offensively without "nose diving" again like last season he has become a very valuable player to our club.  I have said the same about Salty, I'm a huge OBP fan, others like overall OPS but when you look at our 04 and 07 championships, our team OBP was right around the .370 mark.  That may never be done with this club but a higher team OBP leads to much more consistency on a daily basis. 

     

     



    Great point, and while I use OPS a lot, I do recognize that the OBP component is of more value than the SLG%. Still, OPS is a slightly better stat to use than just OBP alone.

     

    Salty's high K rate does not concern me at all, id he can keep his OBP above .325. At least he's not hitting into DPs if he K's. The amount of times players with very low K rates move a player over with an out is so minimal, that I think the K rate argument is pretty lame. How many times does the guy even end up scoring after being moved over? 

    Certainly not enough times to be of more value than a 30-45 point increase in OBP and a few less GIDPs.

     



    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis.  I also think if Salty's plate discipline improves so will his SLG percentage which would make him quite valuable, much like Tek during his prime.  No doubt SO's are obviously much less hurtful as long as you don't swing at bad pitches all the time, or keep hitting into double plays.  With that said, it doesn't help when your team is third in the majors in SO's either, with 8 more K's today it still kills us.

    Nava and Salty's consistency could mean the difference between being expendable, or just the type of players our lineup needs to find the missing OBP our championship teams had. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Oh tell me about. DP= The inning killer. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis. 

    As long as his SLG% stay around .475 to .500, I'm happy with a .325 OBP from a catcher. The MLB average OBP since 2011? .321, .319, & .318.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis. 

    As long as his SLG% stay around .475 to .500, I'm happy with a .325 OBP from a catcher. The MLB average OBP since 2011? .321, .319, & .318.

     



    moon,

     

    If Salty can raise his OBP 30 to 40 points this season it would be a major accomplishment.  As far as settling for the the league average?  With me it all depends on our supporting staff.  You and I have both said many times this team lacks another big bat.  My opinion of a big bat has to be a guy somewhere close to Manny and Davids OBP and power to make a real difference.  

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I would be very happy with Salty as our starter if he raised his OBP on a consistent basis. 

    As long as his SLG% stay around .475 to .500, I'm happy with a .325 OBP from a catcher. The MLB average OBP since 2011? .321, .319, & .318.

     



    moon,

     

    If Salty can raise his OBP 30 to 40 points this season it would be a major accomplishment.  As far as settling for the the league average?  With me it all depends on our supporting staff.  You and I have both said many times this team lacks another big bat.  My opinion of a big bat has to be a guy somewhere close to Manny and Davids OBP and power to make a real difference.  

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     

     



    Actually, I was wrong on my numbers. I was looking at the overall league OBP since 2011. The catcher OBP has been .314, .319 & .311 since 2011, so if Salty can stay above .325, he'd be considerably better than average there.

    The reason I am fine with Salty being at the league average on OBP, is because the % has been about .395 since 2011. Surely Salty's .457 SLG% since 2011, which is about 50 points above the league catcher SLG%, makes up for the average OBP, assuming he stays at or above the league average this year and going forward.

    There are 28 catchers with 650 PAs since 2011. Salty ranks 5th behind Napoli (no longer a catcher), Posey, Molina, and Santana in slg%.

    Only 19 catchers have 500+ PAs since 2012, including Napoli. Salty places 6th in catcher slg% at .462. (of course the .297 OBP places him 15th, but his current .337 OBP would place him 7th.

    I'm not sure he can sustain a .325+ OBP, but it's encouraging to see him walking more often.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     



    The Sox have the second highest OBP in the majors.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    Our team already has 311 SO's, which again is second or third worst in the majors which attributes to low team OBP and less run production more often than not.  Not championship material just somewhere around settling for the league average.     

     



    The Sox have the second highest OBP in the majors.

     



    Fangraphs has this....

    1) Detroit  .352

    2) Boston  .345

    3) Colorado  .337

    4) Oakland  .331

    9) TBR  .326

    13) NYY   .323

     

    FYI: Slg%

    1) Cleve  .471

    2) Colorado .446

    3) Boston  .445

    7) NYY  .427

    10) TBR  .412

     

    OPS

    1) Cleve  .802

    2) Boston .789

    3) Detroit .786

    7) NYY  .750

    10) TBR .738

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    moon

    just wanted to let you know

    that I'm pretty close to apologizing 2 U

    for laughing so hard at your overbay / teix comment

    while I still don't agree

    your comment certainly has merit at this point

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

    moon

    just wanted to let you know

    that I'm pretty close to apologizing 2 U

    for laughing so hard at your overbay / teix comment

    while I still don't agree

    your comment certainly has merit at this point



    While my Yankee comments were a bit tongue and cheek, I was serious about the SS fielding upgrade and the fact that ARod and tex have been in a serious and steady decline for something like 3-4 seasons straight. I never expected Overbay to do better than even Tex's depressed recent numbers, but so far, his .811 OPS is better than Tex's 2012 OPS of .811.

    I doubt it stays there, but I do think if Tex were healthy and playing all year, his OPS would have been sub 700 for the first time in his career.

    Hafner .939, Cervelli .877, and Wells on pace for 30+ HRs are some guys you have to wonder about keeping it up.

    Only 2 starting pitchers with an ERA under 4.00. If it wasn't the Yankees, I'd say it has been smoke and mirrors, but I know better. The Yanks are not going to fade away anytime soon.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Big road trip coming up:

    3 @ TB

    3 @ MN

    3 @ CWS

    then home for 4 vs Cleve and 2 vs Philly, the back on the road for:

    2 @ Philly

    3 @ NYY

    That's 14 of the next 20 on the road.

     

     

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