A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Maybe they'll play better away, sometimes I think they start pressing when they're losing at home . . . fingers crossed.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moore, Price and Cobb...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    And we'll have what? Lackey Buch Lester?  We could win 2 of those.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    And we'll have what? Lackey Buch Lester?  We could win 2 of those.



    Doubront , Lackey and Lester. We will be be satisfied with one win. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Believe the Sox plan is to skip Doubront's start.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Believe the Sox plan is to skip Doubront's start.



    You might be right , but Doubront is still listed as a probable starter in the series. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    Believe the Sox plan is to skip Doubront's start.

     



    You might be right , but Doubront is still listed as a probable starter in the series. 

     



    Then that just pushes Doubie to the MN series.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Yeah, that's true, can't hide him forever.  As poor a start as Webster had, I'd still rather he'd take the hill than Doubront.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Yeah, that's true, can't hide him forever.  As poor a start as Webster had, I'd still rather he'd take the hill than Doubront.


    It's interesting that despite his 6.40 ERA this season, Felix Doubront has a better FIP* (2.82) than Jon Lester (3.26), presumably in part because of Doubront's BABIP** of .420:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1478&position=P

    The sample of 32.1 innings is small, and I'm not a big Doubront fan, but the lefthander might be pitching better than the traditional stats suggest.

    * Fielding Independent Pitching as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

    ** Batting Average on Ball in Plays as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Yeah, that's true, can't hide him forever.  As poor a start as Webster had, I'd still rather he'd take the hill than Doubront.



    It's interesting that despite his 6.40 ERA this season, Felix Doubront has a better FIP* (2.82) than Jon Lester (3.26), presumably in part because of Doubront's BABIP** of .420:

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1478&position=P

    The sample of 32.1 innings is small, and I'm not a big Doubront fan, but the lefthander might be pitching better than the traditional stats suggest.

    * Fielding Independent Pitching as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

    ** Batting Average on Ball in Plays as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

     



    Doesn't FIP count K's highly as well?

    I think he's pitching about as badly as traditional stats imply.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Hill, You have forgotten more stats than I'll EVER know.  Yet, all the positive stats in the world couldn't convince me that Doubront is presently pitching decent.  He isn't.  I think a person would have to be blind to not see he's not pitching well.  Actually, a blind person could listen to the games and come to the same conclusion.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    TB, Bal, and the Yanks are all 7-3 in their last 10. We are 2-8.

    Time to turn the tides by taking 2 of 3 from the Rays. It won't be easy, but...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The kicker is, none of those teams other than maybe the Orioles have more talent, but they are getting timely hits.

    We have two good pitchers but could use a third badly as we have all discussed.  Ells needs to learn how to go to the opposite field more and bunt his way on because he's simply not a great leadoff guy. We have way too many SO's as a team and are beginniing to drop defensively.  I also think we made a bad move signing Gomes but could easily make a couple moves to improve some of these areas and still end up at the top of the division. 

    That's Ben's call, is he content until kids like Bradley, Bogy and Iggy are ready?  Or can/will he find ways to improve the present club to compete all season?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    And we'll have what? Lackey Buch Lester?  We could win 2 of those.

     



    Doubront , Lackey and Lester. We will be be satisfied with one win. 

     



    Realistically, that sounds about right. I would also not be surprised to see us get swept and be just three games above .500 and return from this road trip AT .500 and in fourth place.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Theres no stats that will convince me what my eyes see as far as Doubront. Hes pitching badly, is out of shape and has lost 4MPH on his FB. He is not an efficient pitcher thus far. 100+ pitches in 5IP is not good on a regular basis.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    The kicker is, none of those teams other than maybe the Orioles have more talent, but they are getting timely hits.

    We have two good pitchers but could use a third badly as we have all discussed.  Ells needs to learn how to go to the opposite field more and bunt his way on because he's simply not a great leadoff guy. We have way too many SO's as a team and are beginniing to drop defensively.  I also think we made a bad move signing Gomes but could easily make a couple moves to improve some of these areas and still end up at the top of the division. 

    That's Ben's call, is he content until kids like Bradley, Bogy and Iggy are ready?  Or can/will he find ways to improve the present club to compete all season?




    Actually, many here felt Dempster was that guy. A few others thought lackey and/or Doubront was that guy. One clown thought we didn't need anyone, but just needed to "focus on our pitchers in the minors more".

    For years, my position has been to always try and rebuild the staff from the 1-3 slots, not the 3-5 slots. Realistically, it just can't happen every year, but our last 2 attempts have been Lackey and Dempster. (Before that? Beckett and Schill)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    The kicker is, none of those teams other than maybe the Orioles have more talent, but they are getting timely hits.

    We have two good pitchers but could use a third badly as we have all discussed.  Ells needs to learn how to go to the opposite field more and bunt his way on because he's simply not a great leadoff guy. We have way too many SO's as a team and are beginniing to drop defensively.  I also think we made a bad move signing Gomes but could easily make a couple moves to improve some of these areas and still end up at the top of the division. 

    That's Ben's call, is he content until kids like Bradley, Bogy and Iggy are ready?  Or can/will he find ways to improve the present club to compete all season?

     




     

    Actually, many here felt Dempster was that guy. A few others thought lackey and/or Doubront was that guy. One clown thought we didn't need anyone, but just needed to "focus on our pitchers in the minors more".

    For years, my position has been to always try and rebuild the staff from the 1-3 slots, not the 3-5 slots. Realistically, it just can't happen every year, but our last 2 attempts have been Lackey and Dempster. (Before that? Beckett and Schill)

     




     

    If I remember correctly moon you and I were both against the Dempster signing but he can still end up being a much better aquisition than Lackey.  I think we may want to re-think our strategy a bit if things continue the same way.  We have a pretty good idea guys like Doubront, Bard, Miller and Aceves may not be the answer, while Lackey may still be the same inconsistent guy as well.  I know you are a Tazawa fan but I don't see him as a SP or closer either.  I also love our young SP's on the farm but they could end up like Casey Kelly and Hansen.  Even if they do make it theres no telling how long before they might make a real impact on a consistent basis.  Thats just the starting rotation, what about our young positional players like Iggy, Bradley, Bogy and especially Middy who has to be a concern to some extent. 

    Financially, if we just want to put a competitive "but not great" club on the field each year we should stay away from top FA's and continue on the present course.  I'm not sure we will ever win another championship without a couple more nice additions like Victorino has been so far. 

    There is still a long way to go this season but I think we have a much better idea of our needs moving forward.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Financially, if we just want to put a competitive "but not great" club on the field each year we should stay away from top FA's and continue on the present course.  I'm not sure we will ever win another championship without a couple more nice additions like Victorino has been so far. 

    Our "present course" included signing a massive amount of FAs to a pretty hefty combined price tag.

    I can see if we trade away some of the pieces we just signed plus maybe a few other players not in our longterm plans, we may end up with a boatload of prospects of which some may be ready by 2015. Budget space would allow us to fill the gaps with role or bridge players and even a big splurge here or there if the moment is right.

    I'm still happy with our future, but as I said this past winter, after the Dodger trade, we did virtually nothing for 2015 and beyond. (We even traded away some youth for the one year of Hanrahan.)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from kannaman. Show kannaman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    That was a 3 for 1 deal for Hanrahan but it really cleared some space on the 40 man roster and gave up players who weren't going to help us...Pimentel might have eventually helped but I think the odds were against him. It's to bad all we are going to get out of it was two bad weeks of Hanrahan. Still it was a good idea and they probably will explore some more deals like that since they have a lot of kids that are close to the rule 5 draft or being DFA.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to kannaman's comment:

    That was a 3 for 1 deal for Hanrahan but it really cleared some space on the 40 man roster and gave up players who weren't going to help us...Pimentel might have eventually helped but I think the odds were against him. It's to bad all we are going to get out of it was two bad weeks of Hanrahan. Still it was a good idea and they probably will explore some more deals like that since they have a lot of kids that are close to the rule 5 draft or being DFA.




    It was actually a 4 for 2 trade, but that wasn't really what I had in mind when I mentioned our need to look for some 3 for 1 type deals.

    Hanrahan and Brock for Melancon, De Jesus, Sands, and Pimentel.

    Melancon got a bad rap from many posters here based on a pretty small sample size of IP with the Yanks and Sox. He was still young and had several control years left.

    Sands has a .487 OPS in AAA this year in 130 PAs (0 HRs)

    DeJesus has an .830 OPS in AAA (92 PAs)

    Melancon is just 28 and has a 0.47 ERA and 0.684 WHIP in 19 IP with Pitt so far.

    20 K and 1 BB.

     

    I guess the thought was we might extend Hanrahan, and our concerns about Baliey's health turned out correct thus far, but I really didn't see this past winter as a time to trade so many team controlled years for a 1 year guy and Holt.

    FYI: Holt is at .445 in 109 AAA PAs.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Hill, You have forgotten more stats than I'll EVER know.  Yet, all the positive stats in the world couldn't convince me that Doubront is presently pitching decent.  He isn't.  I think a person would have to be blind to not see he's not pitching well.  Actually, a blind person could listen to the games and come to the same conclusion.

     



    If Hill was a weapon its number one ability would be to bore u to death.

     



    Hill didn't say Doubront was pitching well. He said he was pitching better than his ERA indicates.   And he's right! But everyone here would like to see another 3-4 mph on that fastball to make us feel a little better about future projections.

    And BTW Burrito, you are completely worthless here, on your best day you shut up.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    Hill, You have forgotten more stats than I'll EVER know.  Yet, all the positive stats in the world couldn't convince me that Doubront is presently pitching decent.  He isn't.  I think a person would have to be blind to not see he's not pitching well.  Actually, a blind person could listen to the games and come to the same conclusion.

     



    If Hill was a weapon its number one ability would be to bore u to death.

     

     



    Hill didn't say Doubront was pitching well. He said he was pitching better than his ERA indicates.   And he's right! But everyone here would like to see another 3-4 mph on that fastball to make us feel a little better about future projections.

     

    And BTW Burrito, you are completely worthless here, on your best day you shut up.




    In retrospect, you're right.  I shouldn't have extrapolated.  Sometimes I suffer from foot in mouth syndrome.

    Too bad we all can't be perfect like you.....just kidding..Laughing

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Hill didn't say Doubront was pitching well. He said he was pitching better than his ERA indicates. 

     

    Better than 6.40 leaves a lot of wiggle room to be "better", but still stink.

     

     

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