A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm afraid that Doubront is not going to be able to help us much this year. Opponents are hitting .420 against him for a reason. He is walking batters for a reason. For whatever reason, his stuff is no longer there. It happens in mlb.

    Doubront still has a chance to turn things around, but I think it's come down to one last chance to prove it for this year anyway.

    I've been wrong several times of the years, but I took a lot of flack for expressing my grave concerns about Doubront's WHIP trend and his attitude issues. I'm not saying "I told you so", because the season is still young and I have been wrong so far on several players on the Sox, but it is crunch time for Felix.

     



    He was at 95 at the beginning of the year and now he is strugglling to reach 92. He was at 95 last year. Maybe he can take a short break and get his arm strength back but if not I don't think he will be successful either but he was a different pitcher a few weeks ago. As Hill stated, his underlying data was stronger than he was being given credit for but that last start or 2 have been killers. Guys hitting .420 off him is off the charts bad. And it is probably not all bad luck.

     

    I'm hoping for a DL stint personally.

    I noted earlier that he sat at 91-92 for most of his minor league career. So what happened in the interim? Maybe a little more physical development and he gained strength. Maybe something else which is not there any more. Could be some sort of injury. We have had a lot of pitchers who pitched with injuries and lost arm strength. Schilling, and I remember one guy who pitched with 2 arm injuries but can't place his name right now. But, for whatever the reason it's not there.

    The alternatives were not that strong either. Webster has had command problems and he got shelled recently also. De La rosa has never pitched much more than 50 innings in any one year so he is not going to be able to help us much probably, even though he does look like he is advancing nicely right now. Morales is a possibility but he is probably weeks away from giving us many innings but to me he is our best shot. Ranaudo is looking pretty good right now and could at some point jump from AA ball but it's not ideal. Barnes has a way to go also. The cavalry is coming but they are riding shetland ponies. Workman is a possibility but not ideal.

    They may spoil Webster by bringing him up too early and expecting too much from him. We are pushing his development more than I would like.  He needs to work on his fastball command just like Buchholz had to coming up. He will have some additional bad days until he learns to control his emotions and repeat his delivery even in Fenway.

     



    All that starting pitching depth is gone in a flash.

     

    My guy Taz is now needed to close, and that may end up back-firing.

    I think all our hope rests with the top 4 starters all coming together, staying healthy, and getting support when needed.

     




    Morales should be back soon. He was pretty effective last year in his limited role as a starter. Bailey should be back in the mix soon. He was already throwing from 160 ft and will be in a simulated game soon and throwing off the mound today I believe. If Taz is going to close, he needs to get the mindset to "let it fly" for one inning if hes going to be effective.

     



    Tazawa has been, overall, very effective with exactly what he is doing right now. I think it would be a mistake to ask him to change his approach. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    Boomerangs you were about the only one who didn't wish harness well when we heard he was ill and couldn't post anymore... that speaks volumes. You really are an azz - still held a grudge.

    I miss reading harness and expitch school your azz on a daily basis.


    I still talk to expitch via email. Loads of knowledge when it comes to baseball because of his experience playing and being involved throughout his life. He sees and understands things that a lot of folks here dont, because of that experience. Actually, just got an email from him today Im about to read.

     



    Personally I didn't believe either of them. And seriously question if they were even the same person. They seemed very inclined to complement one another profusely. Lots of people here have multiple accounts and use them to win polls and support their arguments ( I Guess ). I have 2 accounts but I changed simply to reduce the involvement of our company in this process. A good reason to change.

    If you actually noticed I didn't say anything when harness left. I didn't question his veracity even though he said he was now too blind to post? Had some kind of involvement with the horse racing industry which kept him from posting all winter every year? Wasn't it something like that. I let it ride. Is there something horrible about that? I didn't comment at all. I let him say his goodbyes and leave his friends with honor ( whatever honor someone can have here ). How many people have their eyesight deteriorate that badly where they are posting 20 times a day for a long time and then cannot post at all? that quickly. I gave him the benefit of the doubt even though I had some serious doubts about it personally. I let it happen and didn't comment at the time.

    I have no problems with how I dealt with harness leaving. To be honest, I didn't even notice expitch had left also.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to hill55's comment:

    I presented the Felix Doubront question to FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan (another Oregonian) in today's chat:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-51413/

     

    9:48 [ Comment From patriot patriot: ]

     

    Does Boston lefthander Felix Doubront's FIP of 2.83 and BABIP of .420 belie his 6.40 ERA in 32.1 innings this season?  

    Tuesday May 14, 2013 9:48 patriot

    9:50 Jeff Sullivan:

    When a guy has a bad ERA and good peripherals, sometimes it's the guy's fault, but more often, things are bound to regress in a positive direction. Now, Doubront has a .331 BABIP for his career. But that career doesn't yet span 230 innings, so it also needs to be heavily regressed. The likelihood is that Doubront is okay.

     



    Several Oregonian's and people from the Washington area on fangraphs. You guys are taking over! You should submit some articles hill55. Get you calculator ready and crunch some numbers!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    I feel bad about that message to Hill.  Besides, the guy if a fellow Oregonian.  I hope he reads this and understands.  I don't feel Dubront is doing well at all, and Hill's message didn't really say that.  I guess you could call Hill the optomist for seeing something positive in a real bad situation.

    My problem is that sometimes I'll overreact.  As I've gotten older, it seems to have mellowed somewhat, but it still pops it's head up on occasion.

    I realize you and Burritto have had a few go arounds.  It would be nice if you guys could come to some mutual understanding because I don't have issues with either of you.  Burritto can sometimes be a bit sarcastic, but it's just his style. Besides, sitting at a keyboard, unless one is perfectly clear, you can't tell the typists emotions as they type.  Something sarcastic may actually had been meant as something funny.

    You don't come across to me as a 'know it all' at all.  If I were a sadist, I suppose I could latch onto your comment and milk it for all it's worth, but I won't...LOL

    The guy I can't figure is Moon.  I get this mental image of a very serious guy always studying his stats.  I try my best to visualize a big laugh coming from him, but I just can't!!  Funny, isn't it?  But, it's what I mean when I say the personality or intent behind the keyboard may be the opposite of reality.

    Me?  What you see is what you get...take it or leave it..   Smile



    Everyone here likes what they see Amp! Burrito bugs me with just some incredibly stupid and often hurtful comments for no apparent reason.  By the way, my avatar is me circa 17 years old in Maine, testing out a tent for my 9 year old brother's camping trip. Note the ski polls to hold up the tent entrance. I always liked that picture of your wife that you showed. I almost posted a picture of mine last night when I was feeling rather interpersonal. Didn't have the tools on hand to rotate the image or I would have. 

    I used to think Moon was probably a philosophy professor or something like that. Being aware of Nietzche is pretty rare. And looking at him as one of the great philosophers of the existentialist movement I thought it possibly was a personal statement to a degree. No doubt Moon is a numbers cruncher and a thinker. We all appreciate him of course. And I do see a sense of humor there, probably more than people like myself for sure. I hate disagreeing with him at all because I don't like disharmony but heh, sometimes we disagree. It never gets real bad with Moon though in the years I've been here. He doesn't like arguing either.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    There is absolutely nothing wrong with disagreeing with moonslav.  Just do it without attacking him.  And be prepared for a barrage of numbers coming back.  He's just like the rest of us and wants civility.  Well, most of us, anyway.   

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    There is absolutely nothing wrong with disagreeing with moonslav.  Just do it without attacking him.  And be prepared for a barrage of numbers coming back.  He's just like the rest of us and wants civility.  Well, most of us, anyway.   



    Whenever someone says something that is not based in fact, I'll call them on it. just as I expect to be if I do likewise.

     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    Boomerangs you were about the only one who didn't wish harness well when we heard he was ill and couldn't post anymore... that speaks volumes. You really are an azz - still held a grudge.

    I miss reading harness and expitch school your azz on a daily basis.

     




    I still talk to expitch via email. Loads of knowledge when it comes to baseball because of his experience playing and being involved throughout his life. He sees and understands things that a lot of folks here dont, because of that experience. Actually, just got an email from him today Im about to read.

     

     



    How come he doesn't come here anymore?

     

     




    certain posters and just the way some things are here. with a bunch of personal attacks and people who cant disagree without being an azz, he had enough. he still reads the posts though.

     

     

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    Boomerangs you were about the only one who didn't wish harness well when we heard he was ill and couldn't post anymore... that speaks volumes. You really are an azz - still held a grudge.

    I miss reading harness and expitch school your azz on a daily basis.

     




    I still talk to expitch via email. Loads of knowledge when it comes to baseball because of his experience playing and being involved throughout his life. He sees and understands things that a lot of folks here dont, because of that experience. Actually, just got an email from him today Im about to read.

     

     



    How come he doesn't come here anymore?

     

     




    certain posters and just the way some things are here. with a bunch of personal attacks and people who cant disagree without being an azz, he had enough. he still reads the posts though.

     

     



    Yeah, that expitch was just completely class wasn't he expitch/southpaw777. No personal attacks from him, as in over and over for like 8 pages at one point. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    Boomerangs you were about the only one who didn't wish harness well when we heard he was ill and couldn't post anymore... that speaks volumes. You really are an azz - still held a grudge.

    I miss reading harness and expitch school your azz on a daily basis.

     




    I still talk to expitch via email. Loads of knowledge when it comes to baseball because of his experience playing and being involved throughout his life. He sees and understands things that a lot of folks here dont, because of that experience. Actually, just got an email from him today Im about to read.

     

     



    How come he doesn't come here anymore?

     

     




    certain posters and just the way some things are here. with a bunch of personal attacks and people who cant disagree without being an azz, he had enough. he still reads the posts though.

     

     

     



    Yeah, that expitch was just completely class wasn't he expitch/southpaw777. No personal attacks from him, as in over and over for like 8 pages at one point. 

     




    are you insinuating that Im him with the expitch/southpaw thing Boom?

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Don't go there with him, he will not drop it. Same reason expitch used to get upset with him.... never drops it right or wrong, just goes on and on and on. 

    Back to baseball on the only pure baseball thread in the forum.




    I know. I was here for the whole thing.

    I was just answering your question. Not even going to get into it with him.

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Let's keep the personal stuff on other threads.

    Lackey looked sharp until coming unhinged. Our "big 4" is now looking like just 2. I'm not giving up on Dempster & Lackey, but we sure needed a good start from one of them. Maybe next time...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Let's keep the personal stuff on other threads.

    Lackey looked sharp until coming unhinged. Our "big 4" is now looking like just 2. I'm not giving up on Dempster & Lackey, but we sure needed a good start from one of them. Maybe next time...




    I dont have much faith in Lackey. Dempster is what he is. A good pitcher that is going to have a couple stinkers, but overall be dependable. No run support for him this year. Could have 4-5 wins. With lackey and Doubront, were going to wear out that bullpen. They are both awful for different reasons.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Let's keep the personal stuff on other threads.

    Lackey looked sharp until coming unhinged. Our "big 4" is now looking like just 2. I'm not giving up on Dempster & Lackey, but we sure needed a good start from one of them. Maybe next time...

     




    I dont have much faith in Lackey. Dempster is what he is. A good pitcher that is going to have a couple stinkers, but overall be dependable. No run support for him this year. Could have 4-5 wins. With lackey and Doubront, were going to wear out that bullpen. They are both awful for different reasons.

     



    I still have some faith in Lackey, but I feel like time is running out for him to regain the form he had with the Angels. He could just be working out the final rust. We need one of these guys to step up, since we aren't going to be getting an ace anytime soon.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Let's keep the personal stuff on other threads.

    Lackey looked sharp until coming unhinged. Our "big 4" is now looking like just 2. I'm not giving up on Dempster & Lackey, but we sure needed a good start from one of them. Maybe next time...

     




    I dont have much faith in Lackey. Dempster is what he is. A good pitcher that is going to have a couple stinkers, but overall be dependable. No run support for him this year. Could have 4-5 wins. With lackey and Doubront, were going to wear out that bullpen. They are both awful for different reasons.

     

     



    I still have some faith in Lackey, but I feel like time is running out for him to regain the form he had with the Angels. He could just be working out the final rust. We need one of these guys to step up, since we aren't going to be getting an ace anytime soon.

     




    I hope so...I cant wait over the next year or 2. Lots of good arms right now in the upper minors.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It seems that Lackey starts off like a ball of fire for two or three innings and then things go to pieces.

    I wonder if it's arm strength, or because it's the second time through the order.

    His velocity seems fine.  Perhaps, like it's been mentioned before, guys coming back from TJS need time to regain their control.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I hope so...I cant wait over the next year or 2. Lots of good arms right now in the upper minors.

    I doubt we get an ace from the minors this year. Maybe down the line one will develope into one, but without that 3rd big pitcher our 2013 are fading fast. Something I warned about all winter.

    My position was to get a solid starter and/or shoot for 2014-2015 and beyond. We did neither. We played it half way and got nowhere.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I hope so...I cant wait over the next year or 2. Lots of good arms right now in the upper minors.

    I doubt we get an ace from the minors this year. Maybe down the line one will develope into one, but without that 3rd big pitcher our 2013 are fading fast. Something I warned about all winter.

    My position was to get a solid starter and/or shoot for 2014-2015 and beyond. We did neither. We played it half way and got nowhere.




    I would be almost willing to bet money that one of those guys becomes at least a solid #3 by next year sometime. We'll have to try and acquire one at the deadline if Dempster or someone else doesnt step up, or over the winter. There just wasnt any good realistic options this past winter that made sense. Plenty of time to worry about the 2014-15 team Moon.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Upon a Bailey return from the DL, does anyone think they kick the tires on Tazawa being a starter? Would he be stretched-out enough? 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I hope so...I cant wait over the next year or 2. Lots of good arms right now in the upper minors.

    I doubt we get an ace from the minors this year. Maybe down the line one will develope into one, but without that 3rd big pitcher our 2013 are fading fast. Something I warned about all winter.

    My position was to get a solid starter and/or shoot for 2014-2015 and beyond. We did neither. We played it half way and got nowhere.

     




    I would be almost willing to bet money that one of those guys becomes at least a solid #3 by next year sometime. We'll have to try and acquire one at the deadline if Dempster or someone else doesnt step up, or over the winter. There just wasnt any good realistic options this past winter that made sense. Plenty of time to worry about the 2014-15 team Moon.

     



    To acquire a decent #3 this July will take several good prospects. Our chances to win this year does not warrant lessening our 2015 chances to make a run at a miracle season this year.

    More likely we trade Dempster and/or Drew and maybe others.

    The options this past winter were not great, but most did not involve giving up youth or draft picks. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    Upon a Bailey return from the DL, does anyone think they kick the tires on Tazawa being a starter? Would he be stretched-out enough? 



    It might be too late for that to happen, but I was all for it this past winter. I still think Taz has the potential to be our 3rd best SP.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I hope so...I cant wait over the next year or 2. Lots of good arms right now in the upper minors.

    I doubt we get an ace from the minors this year. Maybe down the line one will develope into one, but without that 3rd big pitcher our 2013 are fading fast. Something I warned about all winter.

    My position was to get a solid starter and/or shoot for 2014-2015 and beyond. We did neither. We played it half way and got nowhere.

     




    I would be almost willing to bet money that one of those guys becomes at least a solid #3 by next year sometime. We'll have to try and acquire one at the deadline if Dempster or someone else doesnt step up, or over the winter. There just wasnt any good realistic options this past winter that made sense. Plenty of time to worry about the 2014-15 team Moon.

     

     



    To acquire a decent #3 this July will take several good prospects. Our chances to win this year does not warrant lessening our 2015 chances to make a run at a miracle season this year.

     

    More likely we trade Dempster and/or Drew and maybe others.

    The options this past winter were not great, but most did not involve giving up youth or draft picks. 




    Well, thats was what I was figuring. If were out of it, we trade a piece to someone that needs something to make a realistic run at it. If we did throw in a something extra to get what we want, I dont see any harm in that. We do have extra pieces on the farm.

    I agree that threr was nothing this past winter worth going after.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share