A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     



    Did you really expect players to excel in the first month of their first season?

     

     



    They are playing against other players in their first full season. And some of these guys are high draft pick colllege pitchers. Yes, I do expect them to excel and the numbers are absolutely horrible except for Marrero. A really bad draft in a very bad draft year and quite a few of our guys didn't even make Greenville's team. Thank God the upper levels are great because they are horrible down in Greenville.

     

     




     

    You're up late, buddy...



    Can't sleep more than a few hours at a time. My father's funeral last Saturday.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     




    You cant judge guys like Buttrey and Callahan in their 1st season after the draft. Theyre too young yet. Do you really expect those kids to do that well out of the gate? Buttrey (just turned 20) had 5IP last year after he was drafted. Callahan (will be 19 in august) had just under 9IP last year. Both are in short season A ball in Lowell and they dont even start their season this year until June. Come on Boom.

    There might even be a late round kid start to show his stuff 3 years from now.

    Sorry, but your "worst draft in history" is way out of line IMO.

     



    The draft was so deep with so many players selected that even if we did "badly", we may still end up with 1 or 2 good players out of the large bunch.

     

     




    Exactly Moon. You cant judge a MLB draft within the 1st year. And then to label it "The worst in history" makes me question someones credibility.

     

    Boom sometimes has some good insight, but this one just made me laugh.

    You gotta have patients with kids. Most dont excel right away. and yes, most lower level numbers dont mean much because they are working on certain parts of their game. Usually in their first/2nd year of pro ball theyre not so worried about their numbers, but having the correct approach.

    This is why I always say, If a kid can show me something in AA, then I really start to take him seriously. Ill follow then all the way through the system, but AA is the tipping point for me personally.



    Check out soxprospects sometime about how it's going in Greenville. All they do is look at these players and discuss farm prospects. There are 36 pages of posts just on the draft coming up in June, and we are still weeks away. They know these guys. Talk to them. Study them. See them in Florida instructional baseball and such. Universally the Greenville team is considered terrible so far. Things can change but so far it is a terrible indicator of things to come.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    If you don't believe me, would you believe a hundred other dedicated Redsox prospect followers or would you just blindly stab at an opinion based upon virtually no positive data just to be contrarian apparently? Except for Marrerro, last year's draft has been a disaster so far. By all objective criteria. this is a slam dunk. Just look at the data I posted earlier. Horrible.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     




    You cant judge guys like Buttrey and Callahan in their 1st season after the draft. Theyre too young yet. Do you really expect those kids to do that well out of the gate? Buttrey (just turned 20) had 5IP last year after he was drafted. Callahan (will be 19 in august) had just under 9IP last year. Both are in short season A ball in Lowell and they dont even start their season this year until June. Come on Boom.

    There might even be a late round kid start to show his stuff 3 years from now.

    Sorry, but your "worst draft in history" is way out of line IMO.

     



    The draft was so deep with so many players selected that even if we did "badly", we may still end up with 1 or 2 good players out of the large bunch.

     



    Moon, 1 or 2 good players out of a draft is not good. And I see no studs at all. Let's hope Marrerro pans out and one of the others gives us something.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    If you don't believe me, would you believe a hundred other dedicated Redsox prospect followers or would you just blindly stab at an opinion based upon virtually no positive data just to be contrarian apparently? Except for Marrerro, last year's draft has been a disaster so far. By all objective criteria. this is a slam dunk. Just look at the data I posted earlier. Horrible.




    My point, Boom, is that you cant properly judge 18-21 yr olds in their 1st season of pro ball. You need a couple years to see what you have and get a better idea of what they could be. Like I said, I dont pay too much mind to young kids in low A Ball. They are still learning how to play the game. Some are more advanced than others, some not as much.

    There are always going to be down years for EVERY level of a farm system. All our budding prospects graduated from A ball within the last year or 2 and now we have a new group that will have to go through the adjustments and learning curve that those who are currently in AA and AAA went through. No biggie.

    On another note. Sorry to hear about your dad Boom. My prayers to you and yours.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     




    You cant judge guys like Buttrey and Callahan in their 1st season after the draft. Theyre too young yet. Do you really expect those kids to do that well out of the gate? Buttrey (just turned 20) had 5IP last year after he was drafted. Callahan (will be 19 in august) had just under 9IP last year. Both are in short season A ball in Lowell and they dont even start their season this year until June. Come on Boom.

    There might even be a late round kid start to show his stuff 3 years from now.

    Sorry, but your "worst draft in history" is way out of line IMO.

     



    The draft was so deep with so many players selected that even if we did "badly", we may still end up with 1 or 2 good players out of the large bunch.

     

     



    Moon, 1 or 2 good players out of a draft is not good. And I see no studs at all. Let's hope Marrerro pans out and one of the others gives us something.

     



    Nobody is a certified "stud" this early in their career. Your judgements based on tiny and early sample sizes are faulty.

    I still have high hopes that 2-3 players doing well in the bigs from that draft, and yes, that would make it a great success.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Can't believe we are even discussing this. Look at the numbers. Find me one good number beyond Marrero please and thhen we can discuss. That was the point. Not that they definitely will stink their entire career. Not that they can't develop and become good players, as Lowrie did and Middlebrooks did after doing badly early on. My point was that right now they absolutely stink. Every one of them. 

    They are trotting out Aguilera just to try to save face and he's 22 years old down in Greenville. Mookie Betts is trending way up but still hitting only .250. 

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Can't believe we are even discussing this. Look at the numbers. Find me one good number beyond Marrero please and thhen we can discuss. That was the point. Not that they definitely will stink their entire career. Not that they can't develop and become good players, as Lowrie did and Middlebrooks did after doing badly early on. My point was that right now they absolutely stink. Every one of them. 

    They are trotting out Aguilera just to try to save face and he's 22 years old down in Greenville. Mookie Betts is trending way up but still hitting only .250. 

     



    Find me one number with more than 250 PAs or 100 IP. I can't believe we are evn discussing anything smaller than that, and one could argue those two numbers are too small as well.

    Players are not numbers. If their tiny sample size numbers are not good or "stink", it does not mean those players stink and will never amount to anything. That is the point you are missing. It's the biggest point in the room.

    Asking us to look at tiny sample sizes that look bad and then to call that player a stinker is absurd.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Boom, sorry for your loss.  When my dad died, I was in numbed denial for a while.  It does get better.

    I'm glad I remained Polly the last week--the RS have turned it around.  I think it's good they had to fight through some adversity.  I hope the starters can keep this run going.  Looks like Middlebrooks is coming around.  I noticed McCarthy's last starts too.  I hope we can whip up on the White Sox...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Boom, sorry I missed your mentioning your Dad. I'm very sorry for your loss. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Can't believe we are even discussing this. Look at the numbers. Find me one good number beyond Marrero please and thhen we can discuss. That was the point. Not that they definitely will stink their entire career. Not that they can't develop and become good players, as Lowrie did and Middlebrooks did after doing badly early on. My point was that right now they absolutely stink. Every one of them. 

    They are trotting out Aguilera just to try to save face and he's 22 years old down in Greenville. Mookie Betts is trending way up but still hitting only .250. 

     

     




    You made the comment "worst draft in history". My question is how can you proclaim that without knowing truly what he have yet? just looking at numbers of 1st full year players in mid may? That makes no sense to me.

     

    Guys that go from short season Lowell will go through an adjustment in Greenvile, then another one in Salem. Aguliera was a college kid who they started out in GVille and is in Salem now, which is what most college kids go through here in Boston.

    Again, most of these kids are 18-20 yrs old and just learning the game on the pro level. The A level is usually when they figure out if guys will be in the rotation or in the pen, players move off of position and into new ones. There is NO WAY of proclaiming the "worst draft in history" at this point in time.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    RedsoxProspects, I am very sorry about the loss of your late Father.  I lost my father 15 years ago.  He took me to Fenway in 1997 to see Roger Clemens' debut as a Blue Jay.  It was so weird to see that steroid and HGH freak in a Blue-colored uniform.  

    Again, condolences to you and your family.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     



    Did you really expect players to excel in the first month of their first season?

     



    Yes, shouldn't they all be hitting .400 and sporting a .75 ERA by now?  Smile

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     



    Did you really expect players to excel in the first month of their first season?

     

     



    They are playing against other players in their first full season. And some of these guys are high draft pick colllege pitchers. Yes, I do expect them to excel and the numbers are absolutely horrible except for Marrero. A really bad draft in a very bad draft year and quite a few of our guys didn't even make Greenville's team. Thank God the upper levels are great because they are horrible down in Greenville.

     

     




     

    You're up late, buddy...

     



    Can't sleep more than a few hours at a time. My father's funeral last Saturday.

     




    Sorry Boom...my condolances..

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    3 at the White Sox, then home for 6 (4 vs CLE and 2 vs PHI). After that a pretty tough strecth (not that this is going to be easy).

    2 @ PHI

    3@ NYY

    3 vs TX

    3 vs LAA

    3 @ TBR

    4 @ Bal

    3 vs TBR

    4 @ DET

     

    Our long west coast road trip falls right before the Allstar break ending on July 14th.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 




    Considering what we went through, Id say its a positive if we can come out of it at .500.

    Lackey appears to be gaining momentum now that he has those few starts under his belt. If Dempster doesnt revert back to the way he pitched in April, lack could take the #3 spot from him by next month.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 

     




    Considering what we went through, Id say its a positive if we can come out of it at .500.

     

    Lackey appears to be gaining momentum now that he has those few starts under his belt. If Dempster doesnt revert back to the way he pitched in April, lack could take the #3 spot from him by next month.




    Yeah. I was just thinking that even if 1 of Lack & Demp had a good outing everyother start on top of what Lester & Buchholz can do. All backed up by the decent BP w/ Bailey back- things should be alright for a while. Maybe good enough to be buyers at the deadline. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 

     




    Considering what we went through, Id say its a positive if we can come out of it at .500.

     

    Lackey appears to be gaining momentum now that he has those few starts under his belt. If Dempster doesnt revert back to the way he pitched in April, lack could take the #3 spot from him by next month.

     




     

    Yeah. I was just thinking that even if 1 of Lack & Demp had a good outing everyother start on top of what Lester & Buchholz can do. All backed up by the decent BP w/ Bailey back- things should be alright for a while. Maybe good enough to be buyers at the deadline. 




    Well, over the next 2 months we'll see what we have, and I think BC will make the necessary moves needed. We have some financial flexability too.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Not that much flexibility to stay under the limit, but enough to get one salary dump player at a thrid of his remaining salary.

    I could also see us becoming sellers, if not on July 31st, then on late August waiver deals.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Not that much flexibility to stay under the limit, but enough to get one salary dump player at a thrid of his remaining salary.

    I could also see us becoming sellers, if not on July 31st, then on late August waiver deals.




    I was thinking if they are buyers that they are going to also dump a little payroll in any deal to balance it out a bit.

    were at almost 155M including the 4M payment to LA. I know theres some additional money there, but still plenty of room to take on some payroll if need be.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Going over the luxury tax limit by a little is not a big deal as they reset it last year. Ideally they wouldn't go over but I don't think it will stop them if an opportunity is there. It's tough to be a buyer and also dump payroll.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Not that much flexibility to stay under the limit, but enough to get one salary dump player at a thrid of his remaining salary.

    I could also see us becoming sellers, if not on July 31st, then on late August waiver deals.

     




    I was thinking if they are buyers that they are going to also dump a little payroll in any deal to balance it out a bit.

     

    were at almost 155M including the 4M payment to LA. I know theres some additional money there, but still plenty of room to take on some payroll if need be.



    There's also the money that goes to the player's retirement fund. I think that might be something like $11M that counts towards the limit.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Going over the luxury tax limit by a little is not a big deal as they reset it last year. Ideally they wouldn't go over but I don't think it will stop them if an opportunity is there. It's tough to be a buyer and also dump payroll.



    I think we'd really have to believe we have an excellent shot at a ring to go over the limit this year. I'm assuming we will want to go over the cap in coming years, so going over this year would cause greater penalties if we go over again anytime soon.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Out of our top picks last year. 2 have ERA's over 8.00. 1 has an ERA over 5. 2 have ERA's over 4.00 and all 5 of of these guys were college pitchers in Greenville. Another 2 didn't even make it to Greenville yet ( Buttrey  and Light ). And then Marrero. God awful. that's the 8 picks right there. 

    Not good. Most of these guys are college pitchers who should be tearing up Greenville competition.

     
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