A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     



    Did you really expect players to excel in the first month of their first season?

     



    Yes, shouldn't they all be hitting .400 and sporting a .75 ERA by now?  Smile

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Early returns down in Greenville indicate that except for Marrero, we didn't get anyone who is performing as expected so far. It looks to be a horrible draft. Buttrey didn't even make full season ball yet if I remember correctly. Look at the data. I know what we've been told but look at the data:

    God Awful Numbers in Greenville for hitters:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    God Awful Pitching numbers in Greenville:

    http://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=YR&team=428&year=2013&type=1&min=0

    So far it's Marrerro. That's it from last year's draft.

     



    Did you really expect players to excel in the first month of their first season?

     

     



    They are playing against other players in their first full season. And some of these guys are high draft pick colllege pitchers. Yes, I do expect them to excel and the numbers are absolutely horrible except for Marrero. A really bad draft in a very bad draft year and quite a few of our guys didn't even make Greenville's team. Thank God the upper levels are great because they are horrible down in Greenville.

     

     




     

    You're up late, buddy...

     



    Can't sleep more than a few hours at a time. My father's funeral last Saturday.

     




    Sorry Boom...my condolances..

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    3 at the White Sox, then home for 6 (4 vs CLE and 2 vs PHI). After that a pretty tough strecth (not that this is going to be easy).

    2 @ PHI

    3@ NYY

    3 vs TX

    3 vs LAA

    3 @ TBR

    4 @ Bal

    3 vs TBR

    4 @ DET

     

    Our long west coast road trip falls right before the Allstar break ending on July 14th.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 




    Considering what we went through, Id say its a positive if we can come out of it at .500.

    Lackey appears to be gaining momentum now that he has those few starts under his belt. If Dempster doesnt revert back to the way he pitched in April, lack could take the #3 spot from him by next month.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 

     




    Considering what we went through, Id say its a positive if we can come out of it at .500.

     

    Lackey appears to be gaining momentum now that he has those few starts under his belt. If Dempster doesnt revert back to the way he pitched in April, lack could take the #3 spot from him by next month.




    Yeah. I was just thinking that even if 1 of Lack & Demp had a good outing everyother start on top of what Lester & Buchholz can do. All backed up by the decent BP w/ Bailey back- things should be alright for a while. Maybe good enough to be buyers at the deadline. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    Wow. 4-9 on the month turned into 9-9 (.500) pretty quickly. Plus it's back to the top of the rotation. W/ some major injuries to the pen they had to deal W/ too. if they can escape w/ a .500 record on the month of May that's not too bad. 

     




    Considering what we went through, Id say its a positive if we can come out of it at .500.

     

    Lackey appears to be gaining momentum now that he has those few starts under his belt. If Dempster doesnt revert back to the way he pitched in April, lack could take the #3 spot from him by next month.

     




     

    Yeah. I was just thinking that even if 1 of Lack & Demp had a good outing everyother start on top of what Lester & Buchholz can do. All backed up by the decent BP w/ Bailey back- things should be alright for a while. Maybe good enough to be buyers at the deadline. 




    Well, over the next 2 months we'll see what we have, and I think BC will make the necessary moves needed. We have some financial flexability too.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Not that much flexibility to stay under the limit, but enough to get one salary dump player at a thrid of his remaining salary.

    I could also see us becoming sellers, if not on July 31st, then on late August waiver deals.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Not that much flexibility to stay under the limit, but enough to get one salary dump player at a thrid of his remaining salary.

    I could also see us becoming sellers, if not on July 31st, then on late August waiver deals.




    I was thinking if they are buyers that they are going to also dump a little payroll in any deal to balance it out a bit.

    were at almost 155M including the 4M payment to LA. I know theres some additional money there, but still plenty of room to take on some payroll if need be.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Going over the luxury tax limit by a little is not a big deal as they reset it last year. Ideally they wouldn't go over but I don't think it will stop them if an opportunity is there. It's tough to be a buyer and also dump payroll.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Not that much flexibility to stay under the limit, but enough to get one salary dump player at a thrid of his remaining salary.

    I could also see us becoming sellers, if not on July 31st, then on late August waiver deals.

     




    I was thinking if they are buyers that they are going to also dump a little payroll in any deal to balance it out a bit.

     

    were at almost 155M including the 4M payment to LA. I know theres some additional money there, but still plenty of room to take on some payroll if need be.



    There's also the money that goes to the player's retirement fund. I think that might be something like $11M that counts towards the limit.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Going over the luxury tax limit by a little is not a big deal as they reset it last year. Ideally they wouldn't go over but I don't think it will stop them if an opportunity is there. It's tough to be a buyer and also dump payroll.



    I think we'd really have to believe we have an excellent shot at a ring to go over the limit this year. I'm assuming we will want to go over the cap in coming years, so going over this year would cause greater penalties if we go over again anytime soon.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Out of our top picks last year. 2 have ERA's over 8.00. 1 has an ERA over 5. 2 have ERA's over 4.00 and all 5 of of these guys were college pitchers in Greenville. Another 2 didn't even make it to Greenville yet ( Buttrey  and Light ). And then Marrero. God awful. that's the 8 picks right there. 

    Not good. Most of these guys are college pitchers who should be tearing up Greenville competition.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    You just dont get it Boom, and it appears that you dont even want to understand.

    You expect excellence from all newly drafted prospects in their 1st season of pro ball or they're all busts and it was the "worst draft in history". Just because a kid played a year or 2 in college doesnt mean that its going to translate right away to pro ball. It might actually take afew months or God forbid a year or 2. And for your information, Most high school kids drafted (Buttrey and Callahan to name 2) start out is short season Lowell. They probably wouldnt be able to handle a full season at Greenville right out of the gate and at that young age you want to work them in, not push them in...I could go on and on why your comments and views toward newly drafted prospects is not realistic (ironic, since this is supposed to be a realistic thread) but I think it would just fall on deaf ears.

    Bottom line. Your way off base on this Boom.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I see Callahan and Buttrey on the Lowell roster.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Boom, you gotta chill out man!

    Brian Johnson has only 29 IP so far, Pat Light 25.0, Maddux 35.1, Haley 31.2, and Kraus 14.0.

    Are you seriously making a definitive judgement on these kids based on 14-35 inning sample sizes?

    On the flip side, if some of these guys were doing great, I would not be getting all gah gah over them either.

    BTW, what's up with Callahan and Buttrey? I don't see any stats for them yet.




    They havent even started their seasons Moon. they are in short season Lowell and start in June.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I see Callahan and Buttrey on the Lowell roster.



    That's because they were not good enough to make the Greenville roster. It's not a plus.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    You just dont get it Boom, and it appears that you dont even want to understand.

    You expect excellence from all newly drafted prospects in their 1st season of pro ball or they're all busts and it was the "worst draft in history". Just because a kid played a year or 2 in college doesnt mean that its going to translate right away to pro ball. It might actually take afew months or God forbid a year or 2. And for your information, Most high school kids drafted (Buttrey and Callahan to name 2) start out is short season Lowell. They probably wouldnt be able to handle a full season at Greenville right out of the gate and at that young age you want to work them in, not push them in...I could go on and on why your comments and views toward newly drafted prospects is not realistic (ironic, since this is supposed to be a realistic thread) but I think it would just fall on deaf ears.

    Bottom line. Your way off base on this Boom.



    Hello, is anyone home? Someone page this poster and ask him what part of an ERA above 4.00 for each of our top 5 pitchers on the current Greenville team is actually promising or hopeful. And all of them have college experience. And the 2 guys who didn't make the squad...does that qualify them as promising? Face it. The early indicators are not good. Accept it. Just accept the data that is staring you in the face. And the hitting prospects and not any better at all.

    As I clearly said in an above post it is possible some make it. It is possible that some emerge and I even gave 2 examples of players who appeared to be real bad at first but turned it around eventually. My point was that so far they are horrible. What part of that is difficult to understand? Okk at the data. If I had to bet I would probably put my money on Calahan and Buttrey since virtually no returns are in on them yet and Johnson as his fundementals are not as bad as his ERA but if you want to argue that I'm way off base in evaluating the Greenville team you are arguing with ZERO data to back you up. Zero. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    3 at the White Sox, then home for 6 (4 vs CLE and 2 vs PHI). After that a pretty tough strecth (not that this is going to be easy).

    2 @ PHI

    3@ NYY

    3 vs TX

    3 vs LAA

    3 @ TBR

    4 @ Bal

    3 vs TBR

    4 @ DET

     

    Our long west coast road trip falls right before the Allstar break ending on July 14th.



    2 at home vs Philly, then 2 at Philly. Ridiculous.  

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I agree with you emp9.   Laughing

    Two at Boston and then two at Philly is crazy.  I think in late September, the Red Sox travel to Colorado to face the Rockies.  Those games might be snowed out!   LOL

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I see Callahan and Buttrey on the Lowell roster.

     



    That's because they were not good enough to make the Greenville roster. It's not a plus.

     



    I never said it was a plus.

    Boom, I seem to recall you liking the draft at the time; I'm surprised you feel this way after just 15-35 IP by these kids. It's a long season, and how these guys are doing in August and next year is much more important than their first few games in professional ball.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    3 at the White Sox, then home for 6 (4 vs CLE and 2 vs PHI). After that a pretty tough strecth (not that this is going to be easy).

    2 @ PHI

    3@ NYY

    3 vs TX

    3 vs LAA

    3 @ TBR

    4 @ Bal

    3 vs TBR

    4 @ DET

     

    Our long west coast road trip falls right before the Allstar break ending on July 14th.

     



    2 at home vs Philly, then 2 at Philly. Ridiculous.  

     



    I kinda like the format. It's not like a long flight or anything.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    You just dont get it Boom, and it appears that you dont even want to understand.

    You expect excellence from all newly drafted prospects in their 1st season of pro ball or they're all busts and it was the "worst draft in history". Just because a kid played a year or 2 in college doesnt mean that its going to translate right away to pro ball. It might actually take afew months or God forbid a year or 2. And for your information, Most high school kids drafted (Buttrey and Callahan to name 2) start out is short season Lowell. They probably wouldnt be able to handle a full season at Greenville right out of the gate and at that young age you want to work them in, not push them in...I could go on and on why your comments and views toward newly drafted prospects is not realistic (ironic, since this is supposed to be a realistic thread) but I think it would just fall on deaf ears.

    Bottom line. Your way off base on this Boom.

     



    Hello, is anyone home? Someone page this poster and ask him what part of an ERA above 4.00 for each of our top 5 pitchers on the current Greenville team is actually promising or hopeful. And all of them have college experience. And the 2 guys who didn't make the squad...does that qualify them as promising? Face it. The early indicators are not good. Accept it. Just accept the data that is staring you in the face. And the hitting prospects and not any better at all.

     

    As I clearly said in an above post it is possible some make it. It is possible that some emerge and I even gave 2 examples of players who appeared to be real bad at first but turned it around eventually. My point was that so far they are horrible. What part of that is difficult to understand? Okk at the data. If I had to bet I would probably put my money on Calahan and Buttrey since virtually no returns are in on them yet and Johnson as his fundementals are not as bad as his ERA but if you want to argue that I'm way off base in evaluating the Greenville team you are arguing with ZERO data to back you up. Zero. 

     




    I was right...DEAF EARS.

    Your way off base for evaluating 1st year players with about 30IP and considering this draft the "worst in history" because of those minimal innings pitched. Now again, why cant you seem to get that through your head?

    Im done here. Please dont bother responding because you apparently dont get it And I dont really care for your snarky wise azz attitude either when someone challenges you. Just drop it.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I see Callahan and Buttrey on the Lowell roster.

     



    That's because they were not good enough to make the Greenville roster. It's not a plus.

     

     



    I never said it was a plus.

     

    Boom, I seem to recall you liking the draft at the time; I'm surprised you feel this way after just 15-35 IP by these kids. It's a long season, and how these guys are doing in August and next year is much more important than their first few games in professional ball.

     




    He doesnt get the FACT that they are high school pitchers that need to build their arms up. I guess they should all be stars right out of the gate after 30IP.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think we'd really have to believe we have an excellent shot at a ring to go over the limit this year. I'm assuming we will want to go over the cap in coming years, so going over this year would cause greater penalties if we go over again anytime soon.



    moon, I have doubts that the Red Sox will want to go over the cap in 2014 or any year after that, under the new rules that come into effect next year.

    There will be a new penalty in effect for 2014 for teams going over the cap, which increases to 189 million for 2014.

    The name of the new penalty is the 'revenue sharing disqualification program'.  I don't know exactly how it's calculated, but in the stories about the Yankees getting under the cap by 2014, it was estimated that this penalty would be about 10 million for them.

    So if the payroll for tax purposes for 2014 is 189 million or less, no penalties of any kind.  But if you bump that by 5 million, it looks like that extra 5 million will actually cost you more than 15 million.

    With that kind of threshold disaster, it would appear that any team who's willing to go over the cap and pay the penalties will be willing to go way over it, like the Dodgers.  It's crazy money going over the cap starting next year.

     

     

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