A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    .

     
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    sorry, having trouble with the add your post button.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

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    They didnt take any top notch college pitchers last year and seemed to concentrate on the better HS ones to spend most of their money on, along with a SS because they werent sure about either Iggy or Bogy at SS. Guys like Haley, Maddox, Augliera, and Kraus got very modest signing bonuses. Johnson, who most say will be an innings eater BOTR guy and Light, whos stuff appears better suited for the pen, got the bigger bonuses. Buttrey got almost as much as 1st round pick Johnson and more than 1st round sandwich pick Light, and he was a 4th round pick. That tells me they were concentrating on better HS talent than college guys last year.

     

    So I wouldnt expect a TOTR starter to emerge from the college guys from 2012 draft, but more a couple decent Middle to BOTR guys and solid BP arms and maybe even a good closer. Some think Maddox would make an excellent closer. But you never know. Its just too early to tell right now.

    You have to also take into consideration the Sox approach to the draft when coming to your conclusions. They got Barnes, Owens and kukuk in 2011, already had Ranaudo, Hernandez and Workman from 2010. They needed some younger arms to make sure the system was filled in the lower levels since a lot of the names from the perevious 2-3 years were in the upperlevels now. Add in the trade in August, and from High-A to AAA is filled with quality pitching prospects.

    If you look at the whole system, its really pretty even throughout. At least 2-3 good pitching prospects at each level. Some will work out, some wont, and some who we might not notice now could start to shine in another year or 2.

    Theres so much to consider when it comes to pitching prospects and how they approach each draft. Thats why I get a littled aggrivated when someone just looks at numbers after 1 month and decides that the draft was a bust. Then start to get snarky with me because Im making a lot of sense.

    Nice analysis.

    We did draft several college pitchers, including 3 of the first 4 pitchers and 6 of the top 8.

    The only 2 high school pitcher's chosen were Callahan & Buttrey. Those are the two guys boom says were not good enough for Greenvill's full season.

     

    Thanks Moon ;)

    Yes we did take 6 college guys within the 1st 10 rounds. None were on the level of a Barnes or Ranaudo though coming out of the draft. I think that was on purpose so they could give more money to Buttrey and Callahan. More for Buttrey because of his signability issues and being more projectable than Callahan, who was a little easier to coax out of going to SC than Buttrey was at Arkansas. Buttrey is a 6'6 230 pound beast of a pitcher with all sorts of raw talent, hitting the high 90's with his FB.

    The Sox thought they were good enough to drop almost 2M between the 2 HS kids. Greenville is filled, so Buttrey and Callahan are at an age appripriate level along with the right workload for a 18-20 yr old.

     



    I loved last year's draft, and nothing has made me change my mind, so far.

     




    I though we got some very promising players. Im confident that there will be a few that work out. All together i thought it was a solid draft.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

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    Heres a good read on the tx threshold and the penalties

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-effects-of-the-luxury-tax/

      

    That article makes no mention of the new revenue sharing disqualification program.  Here is an article that does.  See paragraphs 2 and 3.


    http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2012/11/13/explaining-the-luxury-tax-revenue-sharing-refunds-and-the-yankees/

    I thought it did Hfx... 1st offense is 17.5% 2nd is 30% 3rd is 40% and 4th is 50%. with the limit going to 189M in 2014-2016

    No, what I'm referring to is the new revenue sharing system, which has penalties that are separate from the luxury tax.  You really have to read the fine print on this.  Here is a piece by Joel Sherman where he estimates the potential cost of the revenue sharing penalty to the Yankees at 10 million for 2014 alone, and as much as 40 million total for 2014-2016.  This is why we had the stories about the Yankees striving to get their payroll down to 189 million for 2014.

    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/yankees_aim_to_trim_payroll_by_to_pO1UdLoQkMgED2c6NKXCRM

      

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

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    Heres a good read on the tx threshold and the penalties

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-effects-of-the-luxury-tax/

      

    That article makes no mention of the new revenue sharing disqualification program.  Here is an article that does.  See paragraphs 2 and 3.


    http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2012/11/13/explaining-the-luxury-tax-revenue-sharing-refunds-and-the-yankees/

     




    I thought it did Hfx... 1st offense is 17.5% 2nd is 30% 3rd is 40% and 4th is 50%. with the limit going to 189M in 2014-2016

     



    No, what I'm referring to is the new revenue sharing system, which has penalties that are separate from the luxury tax.  You really have to read the fine print on this.  Here is a piece by Joel Sherman where he estimates the potential cost of the revenue sharing penalty to the Yankees at 10 million for 2014 alone, and as much as 40 million total for 2014-2016.  This is why we had the stories about the Yankees striving to get their payroll down to 189 million for 2014.

    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/yankees_aim_to_trim_payroll_by_to_pO1UdLoQkMgED2c6NKXCRM

      

     




    Oooooh. my apologies. I misunderstood you.

    Yes, there will be some stiff penalties along with rewards for staying under the threshold. Good article.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Didn't see the game last night so just asking; thought I saw Ciriaco blowing another defensive play on ESPN???  Don't mean to keep dumping on him, loved him last summer, but I just don't have confidence in him as a true utility guy.  I think he's comfortable at SS but not really anywhere else.  I think we could upgrade this position.

    Giants are down a starter after last night.  Any chance of doing anything with them with the future in mind?  Probably not--they always seem to have pitching in the pipeline.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

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    Didn't see the game last night so just asking; thought I saw Ciriaco blowing another defensive play on ESPN???  Don't mean to keep dumping on him, loved him last summer, but I just don't have confidence in him as a true utility guy.  I think he's comfortable at SS but not really anywhere else.  I think we could upgrade this position.

    Giants are down a starter after last night.  Any chance of doing anything with them with the future in mind?  Probably not--they always seem to have pitching in the pipeline.

     



    hey crit,


    We could DFA Ciriaco (my choice) put Brentz on the 40 man incase another OF body is needed and let Brock Holt be our UI. Hes more than capable playing 2b ss and 3b. Hes not doing great so far this year, but he has decent numbers throughout his MiL carrer.

     

    Ciriaco is a waste of a roster spot IMO.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Didn't see the game last night so just asking; thought I saw Ciriaco blowing another defensive play on ESPN???  Don't mean to keep dumping on him, loved him last summer, but I just don't have confidence in him as a true utility guy.  I think he's comfortable at SS but not really anywhere else.  I think we could upgrade this position.

    Giants are down a starter after last night.  Any chance of doing anything with them with the future in mind?  Probably not--they always seem to have pitching in the pipeline.




    The Sox aren't exactly flush with SP pitching.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    Didn't see the game last night so just asking; thought I saw Ciriaco blowing another defensive play on ESPN???  Don't mean to keep dumping on him, loved him last summer, but I just don't have confidence in him as a true utility guy.  I think he's comfortable at SS but not really anywhere else.  I think we could upgrade this position.

    Giants are down a starter after last night.  Any chance of doing anything with them with the future in mind?  Probably not--they always seem to have pitching in the pipeline.

     




    The Sox aren't exactly flush with SP pitching.

     



    I was thinking the same thing. We need a SP more than the Giants.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ciriaco is a waste of a roster spot IMO.

    His career .299 minor league OBP should have been the red flag nobody wanted to see.

    His fielding and versatility was supposed to be his strong point. I haven't seen that yet.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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    I see Callahan and Buttrey on the Lowell roster.

     



    That's because they were not good enough to make the Greenville roster. It's not a plus.

     

     



    I never said it was a plus.

     

    Boom, I seem to recall you liking the draft at the time; I'm surprised you feel this way after just 15-35 IP by these kids. It's a long season, and how these guys are doing in August and next year is much more important than their first few games in professional ball.

     




    He doesnt get the FACT that they are high school pitchers that need to build their arms up. I guess they should all be stars right out of the gate after 30IP.

     



    Why bother to discuss the OBVIOUS. Their average ERA of all picks in the first 6 rounds is somewhere close to 6.00 and YOU GUYS SAY WHERE'S THE PROBLEM. AND THEIR HITTERS AREN'T ANY BETTER.

    The draft so far looks bad. If you want to argue that point feel free. I'm the one who shouldn't have to even discuss this. I made a point. You guys disagreed. The facts are clear as a freaking bell. And you guys are still tap dancing around the facts.

    Sorry but that is the truth. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    They didnt take any top notch college pitchers last year and seemed to concentrate on the better HS ones to spend most of their money on, along with a SS because they werent sure about either Iggy or Bogy at SS. Guys like Haley, Maddox, Augliera, and Kraus got very modest signing bonuses. Johnson, who most say will be an innings eater BOTR guy and Light, whos stuff appears better suited for the pen, got the bigger bonuses. Buttrey got almost as much as 1st round pick Johnson and more than 1st round sandwich pick Light, and he was a 4th round pick. That tells me they were concentrating on better HS talent than college guys last year.

     

    So I wouldnt expect a TOTR starter to emerge from the college guys from 2012 draft, but more a couple decent Middle to BOTR guys and solid BP arms and maybe even a good closer. Some think Maddox would make an excellent closer. But you never know. Its just too early to tell right now.

    You have to also take into consideration the Sox approach to the draft when coming to your conclusions. They got Barnes, Owens and kukuk in 2011, already had Ranaudo, Hernandez and Workman from 2010. They needed some younger arms to make sure the system was filled in the lower levels since a lot of the names from the perevious 2-3 years were in the upperlevels now. Add in the trade in August, and from High-A to AAA is filled with quality pitching prospects.

    If you look at the whole system, its really pretty even throughout. At least 2-3 good pitching prospects at each level. Some will work out, some wont, and some who we might not notice now could start to shine in another year or 2.

    Theres so much to consider when it comes to pitching prospects and how they approach each draft. Thats why I get a littled aggrivated when someone just looks at numbers after 1 month and decides that the draft was a bust. Then start to get snarky with me because Im making a lot of sense.

    Nice analysis.

    We did draft several college pitchers, including 3 of the first 4 pitchers and 6 of the top 8.

    The only 2 high school pitcher's chosen were Callahan & Buttrey. Those are the two guys boom says were not good enough for Greenvill's full season.

     

    Thanks Moon ;)

    Yes we did take 6 college guys within the 1st 10 rounds. None were on the level of a Barnes or Ranaudo though coming out of the draft. I think that was on purpose so they could give more money to Buttrey and Callahan. More for Buttrey because of his signability issues and being more projectable than Callahan, who was a little easier to coax out of going to SC than Buttrey was at Arkansas. Buttrey is a 6'6 230 pound beast of a pitcher with all sorts of raw talent, hitting the high 90's with his FB.

    The Sox thought they were good enough to drop almost 2M between the 2 HS kids. Greenville is filled, so Buttrey and Callahan are at an age appripriate level along with the right workload for a 18-20 yr old.

     



    I loved last year's draft, and nothing has made me change my mind, so far.

     



    All I've to say on this one is WOW. On what do you guys base this opinion? Give me any data at all beyond a mediocre performance from Marrerro which gives you any indication this was a good draft. It was universally regarded as the worst draft class in many years and our picks so far have been almost universlly bad. Kraus has done well but he is 22 years old in Greenville. They are taking things slow with Buttrey and Calahan ( who was extremely young if I remember correctly) so let's hope like crazy they make it because there is zero indication that anyone else will be a significant mlb level player. An abberation like Lowrie or Middlebrooks could happen but those are relatively rare. Why are we on different sides of this one Moon? The data is clear.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I loved last year's draft, and nothing has made me change my mind, so far.

     

     



    All I've to say on this one is WOW. On what do you guys base this opinion? Give me any data at all beyond a mediocre performance from Marrerro which gives you any indication this was a good draft. It was universally regarded as the worst draft class in many years and our picks so far have been almost universlly bad. Kraus has done well but he is 22 years old in Greenville. They are taking things slow with Buttrey and Calahan ( who was extremely young if I remember correctly) so let's hope like crazy they make it because there is zero indication that anyone else will be a significant mlb level player. An abberation like Lowrie or Middlebrooks could happen but those are relatively rare. Why are we on different sides of this one Moon? The data is clear.

    Boom, never in my life have I made definitive judgements about a player based on a small sample size. These guys all have tiny sample sizes.

    I'm surprised that you are surprised at my opinion. I have not judged these guys yet. I loved the draft at the time, and no tiny sample size is going to change that opinion. Even if they all go the full season and don't put up great numbers, it won't change my opinion a whole lot... a little bit, but not alot, especially if they are trending upwards as the season ends.

    Although I remember people calling last year's draft class weak, I did remember them saying it was deeper than normal in talent, and we had so many picks, I'm still banking on 2-3 players making a significant impact at some point in the bigs.

    I don't have "data" to back up my position, but your "data" is miniscule and near worthless when you consider these are the first 15-35 innings these guys have pitched in profesional baseball. Just because selected and tiny sample size data looks "clear" doesn't mean these guys should be labelled as failures so soon in their careers. There is such a long list of great players that started slower than this and longer than this.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    At no point did I say a definitive judgement had been made regarding our prospects down in Greenville other than right now they look horrible and they do look horrible according to the data. So far they don't look like a good group. So far it looks like a very long season in Greenville. No one deserves a promotion or looks to be getting one at any time soon. Consistently terrible data and no indication it's changing any time soon. 

    I've said several times it is still possible some of these guys make it but from all indications right now, it looks like one of the worst drafts in baseball. Because it does. 

    I'm a Pollyanna generally but I can't put lipstick on that pig.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iglesias played 3rd today and made an error but I think it's a good move. At this point I can see him as a defensive replacement. A utility guy until hopefully his stick comes around. He's always been injury prone. Maybe that is as good a roll from him as we are going to get. I haven't given up but we need to move in that direction for now IMO.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    At no point did I say a definitive judgement had been made regarding our prospects down in Greenville other than right now they look horrible and they do look horrible according to the data. So far they don't look like a good group. So far it looks like a very long season in Greenville. No one deserves a promotion or looks to be getting one at any time soon. Consistently terrible data and no indication it's changing any time soon. 

    I've said several times it is still possible some of these guys make it but from all indications right now, it looks like one of the worst drafts in baseball. Because it does. 

    I'm a Pollyanna generally but I can't put lipstick on that pig.



    We'll have to agree to disagree on this, boom. Yes, they have done "horrible" for a tiny snapshot of their baseball careers. These snapshots should not effect our judgements of them wether good or bad, at least until they get 100+ IP or a couple seasons under their belts. Even then, things can change to the good or bad easily enough. It's not about being a Pollyanna or a Negative Ninny, it's about being neither and just remaining level-headed and waiting for a significant sample size before passing judgement.

     
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    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Iglesias played 3rd today and made an error but I think it's a good move. At this point I can see him as a defensive replacement. A utility guy until hopefully his stick comes around. He's always been injury prone. Maybe that is as good a roll from him as we are going to get. I haven't given up but we need to move in that direction for now IMO.



    It doesn't make sense to me to move the best fielding SS out team has had in years to another position. I get that moving Drew there may be a hard thing to do, if Middlebrooks gets hurt or goes into another funk, but I just shudder at the idea of Iggy at 3B.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Guys, I concur that Iggy at 3rd is not a good deal.  I think Moon said last year (correct me Moon if I'm wrong) that if we don't plan on Iggy in the future, then trade him, and that's what I think.  I believe there are NL teams out there right now that would want him.

    Yeah, I know we're not flush on starters, but I was thinking of Morales who evidently is supposed to be simmering and waiting to jump into the fire if anyone falters.  But if a team were desperate--not saying the Giants are--and we could get something good for him...we still have Webster or maybe Taz if we need a starter.  I think I would do it if we could get back a young power arm, first baseman, outfielder 1/2/3 years away...Actually, I think I would put Iggy and Morales together anytime for a better chance at the above because honestly I don't think the RS really want a defense first SS and we've got someone behind him who's supposed to be good, why not? 

     
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    PS, this deal above is only hypothetical of course.  But if anyone says , "Well, we really need Morales in case something happens..." then I would respond, (And I remain Polly...) are we really a WS team this year or even a deep-in-the-playoffs team?  If not, then we need to make some trades like this.

     
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    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Guys, I concur that Iggy at 3rd is not a good deal.  I think Moon said last year (correct me Moon if I'm wrong) that if we don't plan on Iggy in the future, then trade him, and that's what I think.  I believe there are NL teams out there right now that would want him.

    Yeah, I know we're not flush on starters, but I was thinking of Morales who evidently is supposed to be simmering and waiting to jump into the fire if anyone falters.  But if a team were desperate--not saying the Giants are--and we could get something good for him...we still have Webster or maybe Taz if we need a starter.  I think I would do it if we could get back a young power arm, first baseman, outfielder 1/2/3 years away...Actually, I think I would put Iggy and Morales together anytime for a better chance at the above because honestly I don't think the RS really want a defense first SS and we've got someone behind him who's supposed to be good, why not? 



    I want Iggy to be our SS, but yes, as I have said for over 2 years now, if we are not ever going to play him, we should trade him. He still has value that the team does not seem to view as value.

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iggy is gone if he is not in the majors next year. They originally signed him to a mlb contract. They can't keep sending him down forever. He is probably trade bait as we speak but it makes sense to bring him up now in whatever role we can. Maybe he will prove useful. He's probably as good as Ciriaco anyway. Why not see what we have? He could be a solid defensive replacement. Why not take Pedroia out in blow up games, and give Iglesias some AB and defensive development? The same with Middlebrooks and Drew as they both have been playing hurt. And all of us (just about ) would like to see Iglesias at SS defensively. He should be off the charts at both 3rd and 2nd after even just a few weeks of work. His range and arm are excellent.

    I'd play Iglesias in utility infield mode for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up. Just maybe he can still step in at SS next year because Drew is on a one year deal and we do not want to have to re sign him. I don't know what the current FA shortstop market looks like next winter but it is better to still go even with Iglesias if Bogaerts is roughly a year away. Drew looks like a placeholder to me still.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I still don't see Bogaerts ending up as our SS. He'll have to improve his fielding for me to be content with that. Since Napoli will not likely be here after this year, my idea of moving Middlebrooks or Boagerts to 1B might be the best plan for 2015 anyways.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Iggy is gone if he is not in the majors next year. They originally signed him to a mlb contract. They can't keep sending him down forever. He is probably trade bait as we speak but it makes sense to bring him up now in whatever role we can. Maybe he will prove useful. He's probably as good as Ciriaco anyway. Why not see what we have? He could be a solid defensive replacement. Why not take Pedroia out in blow up games, and give Iglesias some AB and defensive development? The same with Middlebrooks and Drew as they both have been playing hurt. And all of us (just about ) would like to see Iglesias at SS defensively. He should be off the charts at both 3rd and 2nd after even just a few weeks of work. His range and arm are excellent.

    I'd play Iglesias in utility infield mode for 2-3 weeks and then bring him up. Just maybe he can still step in at SS next year because Drew is on a one year deal and we do not want to have to re sign him. I don't know what the current FA shortstop market looks like next winter but it is better to still go even with Iglesias if Bogaerts is roughly a year away. Drew looks like a placeholder to me still.




    we have Iggy until 2019 if we want Boom...

    2010 20 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000     2011 21 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000     2012 22 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000 contracts   2013 23 Boston Red Sox $2,060,000     2013 Status Pre-Arb Eligible, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2016, Earliest Free Agent: 2019
     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I agree with boom, Iggy will either be our starting SS next year or traded.




    I agree with that too. Just saying its not a must that we get rid of him becausehis 4yr deal is up. He still has pre arb, arb, then hes a FA. He could be a very valuable piece with that much control.

     
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