A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Thanks Southpaw, I will.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Thanks Southpaw, I will.




    No Problem jid. I will also make him aware that you would like to make contact with him when I email him next time.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Both OBP's were slightly lower than what I personally think they will be. I think Drew is about a .340OBP guy and Iggy is about a 290OBP.

     

    I think it just comes down to preference. Both make a good arguement to be a starter depending on what a team values and how much. Also their financial situation.

     

    So, a 50 point OBP differential is only 25 more times on base over 500 PAs. With Drew, those would likely be 25 more XBHs over Iggy as the major offensive differential between the 2. All other things being roughly equal: Drew gets 15 more 2Bs and 10 more HRs and Iggy gets maybe 15 more SBs on offense.

    The defensive side is what is harder to quantify, but I feel Iggy would surely make at least 50 more plays over 150 games than Drew, including more DPs. This makes it close call no matter which way you look at it. If you believe 50 is too high, then I can understand your point about choosing Drew over Iggy. 

     




    I think thats it Moon. I dont think Drew misses that many (50). I also thing that the XBH that Drew will get including HR will obviously be more beneficial to drive in more runs.

     

    Iggys getting the start at 3b tonight with Middy on the DL. Im wondering if they dont just DFA Ciriaco and just use Holt as the UI if need be since hes alreay on the 40-man. This will open up a spot in which Id put Brentz on the 40-man and give him some playing time while Vic is also on the DL.

    On a side note...expitch sent me a copy of his new book. Lots of great interviews with some baseball legends on Rod Dedeaux. Ive just skimmed through it, but plan on start reading it later tonight or this weekend.



    I may disagee on the 50 number, but if Iggy does make 50 more plays, I think it makes him at least even with Drew and his 25 more hits (all XBHs).

    At season start, I thought that number might be 80-100. I don't think that anymore.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Both OBP's were slightly lower than what I personally think they will be. I think Drew is about a .340OBP guy and Iggy is about a 290OBP.

     

    I think it just comes down to preference. Both make a good arguement to be a starter depending on what a team values and how much. Also their financial situation.

     

    So, a 50 point OBP differential is only 25 more times on base over 500 PAs. With Drew, those would likely be 25 more XBHs over Iggy as the major offensive differential between the 2. All other things being roughly equal: Drew gets 15 more 2Bs and 10 more HRs and Iggy gets maybe 15 more SBs on offense.

    The defensive side is what is harder to quantify, but I feel Iggy would surely make at least 50 more plays over 150 games than Drew, including more DPs. This makes it close call no matter which way you look at it. If you believe 50 is too high, then I can understand your point about choosing Drew over Iggy. 

     




    I think thats it Moon. I dont think Drew misses that many (50). I also thing that the XBH that Drew will get including HR will obviously be more beneficial to drive in more runs.

     

    Iggys getting the start at 3b tonight with Middy on the DL. Im wondering if they dont just DFA Ciriaco and just use Holt as the UI if need be since hes alreay on the 40-man. This will open up a spot in which Id put Brentz on the 40-man and give him some playing time while Vic is also on the DL.

    On a side note...expitch sent me a copy of his new book. Lots of great interviews with some baseball legends on Rod Dedeaux. Ive just skimmed through it, but plan on start reading it later tonight or this weekend.

     



    That's a book I'd be interested in lefty. I've had very little interaction with expitch, but if you could steer him my way I would love it. I've got quite a collection of baseball books and there's always room for more.

     

     




    He still reads this thread jid, just doesnt post anymore. Maybe you guys can message each other.

     

    Hes is very smart, baseball wise, as well as an all around very accomplished man in and out of the sport. I have a lot of respect for what hes done and his first hand knowledge of the game.

    I believe if you do a search for  "Rod Dedeaux: Master of the Diamond" you should be able to find it.



    Losing ex and 5katz really hurt this board.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Both OBP's were slightly lower than what I personally think they will be. I think Drew is about a .340OBP guy and Iggy is about a 290OBP.

     

    I think it just comes down to preference. Both make a good arguement to be a starter depending on what a team values and how much. Also their financial situation.

     

    So, a 50 point OBP differential is only 25 more times on base over 500 PAs. With Drew, those would likely be 25 more XBHs over Iggy as the major offensive differential between the 2. All other things being roughly equal: Drew gets 15 more 2Bs and 10 more HRs and Iggy gets maybe 15 more SBs on offense.

    The defensive side is what is harder to quantify, but I feel Iggy would surely make at least 50 more plays over 150 games than Drew, including more DPs. This makes it close call no matter which way you look at it. If you believe 50 is too high, then I can understand your point about choosing Drew over Iggy. 

     




    I think thats it Moon. I dont think Drew misses that many (50). I also thing that the XBH that Drew will get including HR will obviously be more beneficial to drive in more runs.

     

    Iggys getting the start at 3b tonight with Middy on the DL. Im wondering if they dont just DFA Ciriaco and just use Holt as the UI if need be since hes alreay on the 40-man. This will open up a spot in which Id put Brentz on the 40-man and give him some playing time while Vic is also on the DL.

    On a side note...expitch sent me a copy of his new book. Lots of great interviews with some baseball legends on Rod Dedeaux. Ive just skimmed through it, but plan on start reading it later tonight or this weekend.

     



    I may disagee on the 50 number, but if Iggy does make 50 more plays, I think it makes him at least even with Drew and his 25 more hits (all XBHs).

     

    At season start, I thought that number might be 80-100. I don't think that anymore.




    Drew made another great diving stop tonight. Although he wasnt able to get the speedy Brantley out, it was one heck of a play.

    Iggy had a nice hit tonight as well. I hope he can prove me wrong and earn his keep. I would be more than happy with him as the starting SS next year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It was no surprise they called up Iglesias, I just didn't expect it so fast. And I sincerely think expitch is still with us. I don't know what happened to 5katz. I hope he is ok because he was a class guy. There are a lot of great Redsox forums out there guys. 5katz could well have just moved to another site. This one is is kind of a pedestrian site. The thouroughbreds are for the most part on other venues. MLBtraderumors. Soxprospects. Over the monster...etc. I recommend you guys look iook into other websites also. I pretty much only look at a couple threads here any more. We have some major nincompoops here. Guys who would get demolished on other sites. If I hadn't become friends with most of you I wouldn't be here either. There are some nice people here and moon is top notch and deserves our support for all the work he puts in. 

    I am planning something special for this year's draft guys. Earning my keep.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I may disagee on the 50 number, but if Iggy does make 50 more plays, I think it makes him at least even with Drew and his 25 more hits (all XBHs).

     

    At season start, I thought that number might be 80-100. I don't think that anymore.

     




    Drew made another great diving stop tonight. Although he wasnt able to get the speedy Brantley out, it was one heck of a play.

     

    Iggy had a nice hit tonight as well. I hope he can prove me wrong and earn his keep. I would be more than happy with him as the starting SS next year.

     

    It was a nice play, but Iggy makes that play without having to dive...

     

    Tongue Out

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It was no surprise they called up Iglesias, I just didn't expect it so fast. And I sincerely think expitch is still with us. I don't know what happened to 5katz. I hope he is ok because he was a class guy. There are a lot of great Redsox forums out there guys. 5katz could well have just moved to another site. This one is is kind of a pedestrian site. The thouroughbreds are for the most part on other venues. MLBtraderumors. Soxprospects. Over the monster...etc. I recommend you guys look iook into other websites also. I pretty much only look at a couple threads here any more. We have some major nincompoops here. Guys who would get demolished on other sites. If I hadn't become friends with most of you I wouldn't be here either. There are some nice people here and moon is top notch and deserves our support for all the work he puts in. 

    I am planning something special for this year's draft guys. Earning my keep.

     




    expitch still reads the threads and I know 5katz is still here...I visit and post on MLBTR and a couple other sites as well. MLBTR has a lot of knowledgeable posters and not much of this trolling crap that goes on here.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I may disagee on the 50 number, but if Iggy does make 50 more plays, I think it makes him at least even with Drew and his 25 more hits (all XBHs).

     

    At season start, I thought that number might be 80-100. I don't think that anymore.

     




    Drew made another great diving stop tonight. Although he wasnt able to get the speedy Brantley out, it was one heck of a play.

     

    Iggy had a nice hit tonight as well. I hope he can prove me wrong and earn his keep. I would be more than happy with him as the starting SS next year.

     

    It was a nice play, but Iggy makes that play without having to dive...

     

    Tongue Out

     




    smartazzWink

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Kazmir pitches for the Indians tomorrow?  I thought he retired?!?  And Giambi plays for the Indians?   Didn't Giambi interview for the manager position with the Rockies during the offseason?   LOL

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    Kazmir pitches for the Indians tomorrow?  I thought he retired?!?  And Giambi plays for the Indians?   Didn't Giambi interview for the manager position with the Rockies during the offseason?   LOL




    you realize that we beat all former Sox pitchers tonight? Masterson, Hill and Albers...

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

     

    Kazmir pitches for the Indians tomorrow?  I thought he retired?!?  And Giambi plays for the Indians?   Didn't Giambi interview for the manager position with the Rockies during the offseason?   LOL

     




    you realize that we beat all former Sox pitchers tonight? Masterson, Hill and Albers...

     



    Where's that guy pining for Masterson?

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Kazmir is off to a rough start.

    1.624 WHIP in 28 ip

    6.35 ERA

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Kazmir is off to a rough start.

    1.624 WHIP in 28 ip

    6.35 ERA



    In May he's had 2 very good starts followed by 2 bad ones.  I wish the guy well after what he's been through, but not today of course.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Kazmir is off to a rough start.

    1.624 WHIP in 28 ip

    6.35 ERA

     



    In May he's had 2 very good starts followed by 2 bad ones.  I wish the guy well after what he's been through, but not today of course.

     

     



    The Rays seem to dump guys just in the nick of time.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    The Rays seem to dump guys just in the nick of time.



    Very true.  Shields is trying to be an exception this year.

    Will Longoria be the first and maybe only 'career Ray'? 

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    The Rays seem to dump guys just in the nick of time.

     

     



    Very true.  Shields is trying to be an exception this year.

     

    Will Longoria be the first and maybe only 'career Ray'? 

     

    Could be, but I doubt it. He will make over $18M by 2021, but does have a $13M club option for 2023.


    He is so cheap up until 2014 ($7.5M).

     

    Matt Moore is also signed to 2019 (last 3 years are club options with small buyouts end ing at just $10M in 2019.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    The Rays seem to dump guys just in the nick of time.

     

     



    Very true.  Shields is trying to be an exception this year.

     

    Will Longoria be the first and maybe only 'career Ray'? 

     

     

     

    Could be, but I doubt it. He will make over $18M by 2021, but does have a $13M club option for 2023.


    He is so cheap up until 2014 ($7.5M).

     

    Matt Moore is also signed to 2019 (last 3 years are club options with small buyouts end ing at just $10M in 2019.




    I see Longoria testing the market before re-signing with the Rays.  If that happens the Rays probably won't match other offers.  However, after all the FA busts recently teams may begin to stay away from huge long term deals and Longoria has been injured quite a bit.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Could be, but I doubt it. He will make over $18M by 2021, but does have a $13M club option for 2023.


    He is so cheap up until 2014 ($7.5M).

     

    Matt Moore is also signed to 2019 (last 3 years are club options with small buyouts end ing at just $10M in 2019.

     




    I see Longoria testing the market before re-signing with the Rays.  If that happens the Rays probably won't match other offers.  However, after all the FA busts recently teams may begin to stay away from huge long term deals and Longoria has been injured quite a bit.

     

    I'd say if Longoria is not traded by the end of his current deal, we can safely call him a "career Ray".  He turns 28 this October and is under team control through 2023.  He'll turn 38 at the end of his last contract year (a $13M team option).

    I can't imagine him not being traded before the 2021 and 2022 seasons where he makes over 18M.

    Matching an offer at 38 is not a big concern.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It's amazing how well the rays have done over the lat 5 years or so on the budget they have had. Great org from top to bottom.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It's amazing how well the rays have done over the lat 5 years or so on the budget they have had. Great org from top to bottom.




    Do you know how long, if it hasn't happened already, when the Rays picks stop being top guys because of when they were cellar dwellars?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    It's amazing how well the rays have done over the lat 5 years or so on the budget they have had. Great org from top to bottom.

     




    Do you know how long, if it hasn't happened already, when the Rays picks stop being top guys because of when they were cellar dwellars?

     

     




    They have been contenders since about 2008 I believe. They can only go so far unless they can sign ttheir young studs to deals like Longo. Guys like Price will leave and they dont have the payroll to secure the really good talent out there. They have done a good job of bringing in players on low $ deals and working the system overall, but that luck will eventually run out IMO.

     

    I still believe in todays baseball you have to spend more than 40-60 to go All the way with vet guys who have been there before. When you get to the playoffs, teams like the Rays and A's are usually exposed by teams like the Giants or someone else with the experience and payroll to get the players that put them over the top.

    I see the rays as no more than a 3rd place team this year. Their pitching is just OK so far this year and they have little offense. If you dont get a legit bat to put with Longo, they will pitch around him all year long.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Rays are having a tough time this year but if Price was normal they would probably be right there with us and the Yanks. Let's face it. Price being less than 100% is hurting them bad. Last year's Cy Young winner. That hurt. 

    They still have a lot of great young pitching which is controllable for years to come. And a decent farm. And a lot of their talent hasn't come from top picks. They have developed guys really well. Guys like Moore and Hellickson. Cobb. That's a lot of development right there. They have traded well with Archer probably ready to step in there soon. 

    In most other markets they would be a bohemoth.

     

Share