A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A couple things...
    Is is so much of a stretch to think that if Drew Bats 280 with a 340+ OBP and a 780+ ops some team wouldnt want a just turned 30yr old SS on a 3-4 year deal? why would he take a QO. I think if Drew did get those numbers you would have to carefully look at every team that may be involved and all the other factors involved if you wanted to extend a QO. Thats hardly "clueless" to suggested it mighthappen depending on the circumstances. He never said he would get one.

    1) It's just as likely he hits .260/.310.

    2) He didn't "suggest" it might happen, he wrote this:

    They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    3) There is very little chance Drew gets a QO, but I will admit it is not a zero percent chance. The statement above sounds pretty sure.

     

    "Drew has been faltering for 3 years" is very misleading and Im surprised you stooped to that level. He was hurt over the past 2 years and got off to a slow start due to a concussion this year. 2011, 2012 and 2013.

    Stooped to this level? Facts are facts. yes, he was injured, but the facts remain as they are. Besides, he was not hurt for over 350 PAs at the start of 2011... his last significant stretch of healthy playing time.

    He's had over 850 PAs since 2011. You can choose to ignore it or explain it away, but he played those games, and they count.

     

    He hit almost 900OPS for May and Im sure his numbers will improve. "wake up and smell the coffee"? really, after you use 2 injured years and 2 months of the 3rd year? You refuse to recognize that he was becoming one of the better MLB SS before the injury. His defense, like I tried to tell people, is a LOT better than what the defensive metrics say and if you havent watched him play or talked with someone in the AZ organization, then you have no idea. Also...He'll hit. He always has. He was just on a tear since 4/22. Im sure he'll slow down a bit then go on another tear.

    I hope you are right, but I just don't see what you are seeing and wishing for.

    BTW, 2011 was not "2 months", it was (count them) April, May, June, and up to July 20th. That's closer to 4 months than 3, and certainly not 2.  The managers who played him in 2012 and 2013, thought he was healthy enough to play well. 

    I have never said he is as bad as the 2011-2013 numbers show (.254/.287/.394/.681), like softy has, but I see no reason to think he will return to 2010 numbers either. I am somewhere inbetween, and you are seeing me as the extreme one here. Expecting .340 is more extreme than me expecting .320 (OBP).

    While .320 is nice for a SS who is an average fielding SS, I do think believing there is a significant chance he gets a QO iw orthy of a "small the coffee" comment.

     

    I dont even want to resign Drew and cant wait to see Iggy play SS. I understand why they signed another SS and agree with the move. Its made Iggy work harder and has given him a chip on his shoulder, in a good way though. But those on here who have no clue about Drew and have never really seen him play, or uses his injury years to define him make me laugh. It does nothing for those peoples credibility.

    I'm laughing now- out loud. 

    We know who Drew is, and he's not great. He's not even worth $9,5M, let alonea $13M offer even if after a decent 2013 season. If we make him that offer, I'll go off the deep end.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    You've lost it now....to suggest that Salty....a career 240/15/300 obp and a k rate of 1 every 3.5 ab to 6 time all star McCann...280/22/350 obp are pretty much the "same results" is ludicrous. And let's not even go to the defensive side of the argument. 

    McCann has never been known for his defense. He may rebound to form on offrense and be better than Salty. That's why I said "pretty much" the same results. I do think McCann should be slightly better over the next 3 years or so, but not by the money differential he will get.

    You roast me for not believing in Drew and Ells, but now roast me for thinking Salty will continue to improve.

     

    And ok...let's trade 4 starters off of our 1st place team to upgrade our 5th starter to a 3....are you on drugs? Ain't gonna happen....

    I'm nearly done arguing with you. I have not said I want to trade 4 starters for 1 guy. I have repeatedly said I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, but if we can't get anything good for them then think about Salty. I have suggested that if we include Doubront in a trade, we may be able to upgrade our starting staff, which, by the way is what will keep us from wiining a ring this year... the lack of a 3rd quality SP.

    I have never said it is going to happen. Never, so get off your high horse and stop misrepresenting my position. I disagree with Ben, but never pretend to know better. 

    No, I'm not on drugs, are you?

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One more thing moon before I kiss this debate goodbye...what do Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, and yes, J Ellsbury all have in common..?  

     

     

    They were ALL comp picks. 

     

    And no prospect we can trade Drew or Ellsbury can be worth more than the value of a comp pick?

    Here are some names back at you:

    Matt Chico, Matt Murton, Abe Alvarez, Craig Hansen, Michael Bowden (is he good?), Jonathan Egan, Kris Johnson, Caleb Clay, Nick Hagadone, Ryan Dent, Bryan Price, and Stephen Fife.

    From 2001 to 2009, I count 3 good players: Ellsbury, Buch and Bard and 11 bad one, or at least yet to prove any real value at this point.

    I'd rather have a known prospect who has some professional ball under his belt than a comp pick. I'm not saying the comp pick is useless. I would not trade Ellsbury for a prospect with no better chance than a comp pick has.

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Weve done VERY WELL the last few years with comp pick. The rules have changed now, so it might change how things are done now though. Have to wait and see.

    I love our recent comp picks, and am glad we should get one for Ellsbury (and maybe another for Napoli), but I think Ellsbury has more value than a comp pick.

    If I knew we'd get another Bradley or Owens, I'd keep Jacoby, but that is not common.

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm nearly done arguing with you. I have not said I want to trade 4 starters for 1 guy. I have repeatedly said I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, but if we can't get anything good for them then think about Salty. I have suggested that if we include Doubront in a trade, we may be able to upgrade our starting staff, which, by the way is what will keep us from wiining a ring this year... the lack of a 3rd quality SP.



    As of now we do have a quality #3 in Lackey.  Teams have won it with #3's with far worse  numbers than Lackey currently has.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It really is ALL about comfort. Pitchers are creatures of habit. All these war and dwar stats are ridiculous. The bottom line is....right now, these guys like throwing to him. That's all that matters. I'm not saying AT ALL that I would extend him for 4 or 5 yrs, like somebody will. But I AM CERTAINLY NOT going to trade him this yr just to make sure I get a prospect when he walks. They're in first place. He's doing well, the staff is doing well...but oh...let's break it up and make sure we get a prospect...don't think so..

    I wanted to and still want to extend Salty ASAP. If we plan on doing what it takes to keep him after the season ends, I don't want to trade Salty.

    That being said, I get a sneaky feeling this is Salty's last season here. If that is what Ben is thinking, then I think we should explore trading him for equal or higher value that is under team control beyond 2013. It is risky to do this if we are still in the race in July or August, but I still don't see this team as a serious World Series contender without getting another solid starting pitcher. I'm not for trading our top prospects to get one, so you have to give something to get something.

    Here's a head up. Within a couple months, most posters here will be complaining about our need for a solid SP. If it's past the deadline, then tough cookies: season over- nothing to show for all those who walk.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I'm nearly done arguing with you. I have not said I want to trade 4 starters for 1 guy. I have repeatedly said I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, but if we can't get anything good for them then think about Salty. I have suggested that if we include Doubront in a trade, we may be able to upgrade our starting staff, which, by the way is what will keep us from wiining a ring this year... the lack of a 3rd quality SP.

     



    As of now we do have a quality #3 in Lackey.  Teams have won it with #3's with far worse  numbers than Lackey currently has.

     



    Very true, but I would not count on Lester, Buch and Lackey to all be healthy and on top of their game the rest of the year and into the playoffs. If they are, we'd be stronger with Lackey as our #4 and Dempster as the #5.

    It always ends up being the pitching. When the playoffs come, everyone looks at the pitching match-ups not if we start JBJ or Ellsbury in CF and/or Iggy or Drew at SS.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    When Princeton or Stanford look at accepting new students they look at the data; i.e. GPA, SAT...etc. If you guys want to just accept students because they are large with curly hair that's your  choice but I prefer a more scientific approach. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.



    ...and if he goes into his normal August-September slump...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.

     



    There are measures for a catcher's fielding, but hardly any measures for how a catcher contributes to the pitching game. 

    When I see Salty behind the plate for good performances by Aceves, Morales and Doubront in the space of a week, I think he must be doing something right. 

    I miss Harness.  He was the CERA guru. 

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.

     



    There are measures for a catcher's fielding, but hardly any measures for how a catcher contributes to the pitching game. 

    When I see Salty behind the plate for good performances by Aceves, Morales and Doubront in the space of a week, I think he must be doing something right. 

    I miss Harness.  He was the CERA guru. 

     



    The "Bench Salty" thread is over a 1000 posts long and has plenty of CERA data, including breakdowns from the time period starting 4/21/12 when Salty started shaving a half run off his CERA. He's followed that with another half run or so, and catually has very good comparable numbers with Ross, if you use CERA the correct way- the harness way. Pitcher by pitcher.

    There is also OPS against numbers pitcher by pitcher.

    I wouldn't be for extending Salty, if it wasn't for the vast improvement with our pitchers.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's what we have left: (Let's assume a conservative projection)

     

    16- @BAL 10/ BAL 6   8-8

     13- @TBR 6/ TB 7       6-7

    13- @NYY 4/ NYY 9      7-6

    10- @TOR 3/ TOR 7    6-4

    7- @DET 4/ DET 3        3-4

    6- @LAA 3/ LAA 3       3-3

    7- @SEA 4/SEA 3        3-4

    4- @KCR 4                   2-2

    4- @COL 2/ COL 2      2-2

    3- @OAK 3                   1-2

    3- @ SF  3                     1-2

    3- @CWS 3                  2-1

    3- @LAD 3                    2-1

    3- @HOU 3                   2-1

    3- Tex 3                         1-2

    3- SDP 3                        2-1

    3- ARI  3                         2-1

    Total:    

        53- 51  

    + 35-23 Now

       88-74

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Looking towards the end of July?

    Team pretty much out of it already:

    (Games behind wildcard)

    Miama    -19

    Milw.       -12.5

    Houston -12

    NY Mets  -11

    Chi Cubs  -10.5

     

    Getting close...

    San Diego -8.0

    Seattle      -8.0

    Toronto     -8.0

    LA Dod     -10.5

    KCR           -7.5

    Philly        -7.0

     

    Could be out by July 31st:

    CWS     -6.5

    MN       -5.0

    Col       -5.0

    LAA      -7.0

     

    Lots of salary dump players on these teams. Lots of players with short team control. 

    Some 

    salary dumps names:

    Miami: Nolasco ($11.5M then FA) Would Miami lessen the price of Stanton if we took on Nolasco's contract? (about $4M by July 31st)

    Houston: None

    Milwaukee: Braun ($8.5M, $10M, $12M, then $105M/5), Weeks ($10M, $11M in 2014 & $11.5M vesting opt), Lohse ($33M/3), C. Hart ($10.3M then FA), A Ramirez ($10M, $16M, & mutual opt with $4M buyout), Gallardo ($7.75M, $11.25M, $13M club option in 2015).

    Chicago Cubs: A Soriano ($28M/2), E Jackson ($52M/4), Garza ($10.25M/1)

    NY Mets: J Santana ($25.5M and $5.5M buyout for 2014), Wright ($138M/8), 

    San Diego: C Quentin ($27M/3 with $10M option in 2016- $3M B/O)

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    How do BA top 100 picks fair in MLB?

    Good read...

     

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top?utm_source=sbnation&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom

     

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.

     



    There are measures for a catcher's fielding, but hardly any measures for how a catcher contributes to the pitching game. 

    When I see Salty behind the plate for good performances by Aceves, Morales and Doubront in the space of a week, I think he must be doing something right. 

    I miss Harness.  He was the CERA guru. 

     

     



    The "Bench Salty" thread is over a 1000 posts long and has plenty of CERA data, including breakdowns from the time period starting 4/21/12 when Salty started shaving a half run off his CERA. He's followed that with another half run or so, and catually has very good comparable numbers with Ross, if you use CERA the correct way- the harness way. Pitcher by pitcher.

     

    There is also OPS against numbers pitcher by pitcher.

    I wouldn't be for extending Salty, if it wasn't for the vast improvement with our pitchers.



    Moon, your last sentence says it all. The value of a catcher is measured in the performance of his pitchers, and this staff definitely works well with Salty. I may be wrong about this, but it appears he is playing slightly less often this year with ross on board which may keep him fresher as we enter the dog days. He still strikes out too much but the quality of his at bats is much better this year than last year. And I have seen no evidence that he is costing us the runs Boom seems to think he's costing us, And if there is a stat that supports his contention then I will choose to believe my eyes before I believe that stat.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Moon has said repeatedly--and on the last page--that he's not for trading everybody on the team but--my words--a surgical trade of select players that may not come back/will not sign/etc. anyway.  Players whom we can replace with little or no drop off for a better pitcher or young hitter who will improve us up and down the order.  If you get a better pitcher for the top to middle of the rotation and every pitcher drops down one, then the whole rotation is better.  Same with the batting line-up.  He has explained this much better than I can in the past.  I think some people here think discussing trades is somehow blasphemous or disloyal when actually I think the point is to improve this team enough to be a WS threat for the next ten years.  If posters here think we are that right now and are concerned about breaking up the chemistry, then I get that.  Except I don't think we are there yet, and the right moves could put us there next year.  And with the solid veterans we have and the respect the coaching staff seems to receive, the overall stability, I don't think a trade will hurt this team if the guys think it makes them stronger.  Players want to win too.

    Also,  most discussing trades here say it's too early to be specific.  It depends on who's trading and what they need.  I don't think we have to get all riled about a specific player yet.  We are just lucky to have players that I think some teams will want at the deadline.  This next deadline will be a key to our future if it's handled well.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

     

    Moon has said repeatedly--and on the last page--that he's not for trading everybody on the team but--my words--a surgical trade of select players that may not come back/will not sign/etc. anyway.  Players whom we can replace with little or no drop off for a better pitcher or young hitter who will improve us up and down the order.  If you get a better pitcher for the top to middle of the rotation and every pitcher drops down one, then the whole rotation is better.  Same with the batting line-up.  He has explained this much better than I can in the past.  I think some people here think discussing trades is somehow blasphemous or disloyal when actually I think the point is to improve this team enough to be a WS threat for the next ten years.  If posters here think we are that right now and are concerned about breaking up the chemistry, then I get that.  Except I don't think we are there yet, and the right moves could put us there next year.  And with the solid veterans we have and the respect the coaching staff seems to receive, the overall stability, I don't think a trade will hurt this team if the guys think it makes them stronger.  Players want to win too.

    Also,  most discussing trades here say it's too early to be specific.  It depends on who's trading and what they need.  I don't think we have to get all riled about a specific player yet.  We are just lucky to have players that I think some teams will want at the deadline.  This next deadline will be a key to our future if it's handled well.

     



    Thanks Crit. I'm not for trading away most of the "last year here" players, although a compelling argument could be made for doing so. I was more that way last winter when the draft pick value was attached to Ellsbury, and my hopes of us being even a marginal playoff contender where less than now.

    Salty is not the guy I want to trade. I want him extended now. I wanted him extended last winter. Not many others were for that. Now, some psoters are acting like I do not value Salty, and that is why I mentioned possibly trading him. 

    I'm not one of those guys who want to trade all our bad or injured players for a stud in some dreamworks fantasy. You have to give value to get value, and I think that over the years I have been accused or offering too much not too little. On this site, I consider that a sign that I am probably close to reality that the dreamers. When looking to improve one of the team's weakest links (see below), one has to look at varying ways of upgrading that slot:

    1) Trade prospects for a rental or high priced or aging vet.

    2) Trade established players from positions where the replacement is the least drop off from the guy we are trading away. (To me, this is clearly Drew>Iggy and Ells> JBJ)

    3) Package a player in a slot of need with others to upgrade that position.

    To me, we could become one of the top ring contenders if we fill one of our two weakest links:

           1) Solid & dependable starting pitcher under team control for 2+ seasons and 

                not past prime by the end of his contract.

            2) A solid right-handed middle of the order bat (LF, CF or RF)

    I'd love to win this year, but I am more concerned about our extended future, so making a trade to help us now, should also help us in 2014 and beyond. The Dodger trade went a long way in securing our future both in gaining top prospects and also by freeing up cap space for years to come.

    Many posters here hated that trade and bashed me for praising it so highly. Now, I'm not hearing so much negativity about the deal even with AGon and CC doing pretty well with LAD.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Drew lifted his OPS 60 points tonight to 749.  That's 107 points higher than WMB.  Drew has even driven in more runs per game than WMB.

    The way Drew and Iglesias are playing right now, WMB returning will not make us a better team.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Drew lifted his OPS 60 points tonight to 749.  That's 107 points higher than WMB.  Drew has even driven in more runs per game than WMB.

    The way Drew and Iglesias are playing right now, WMB returning will not make us a better team.




    What to do??  There is no doubt that the FO is well aware of this.

    Are their games played about equal?

    Secondarily, a similar situation exists somewhat with Ellsbury...the way Nava is leading off and the way Bradley is playing.

    It wouldn't surprise me if both their injuries take a little longer to heal than expected.

     
  22. This post has been removed.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from kannaman. Show kannaman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Drew lifted his OPS 60 points tonight to 749.  That's 107 points higher than WMB.  Drew has even driven in more runs per game than WMB.

    The way Drew and Iglesias are playing right now, WMB returning will not make us a better team.




    I think that is 100% true....the only thing you can say in Middlebrooks defense is that he was playing hurt and hope he comes back revitalized and hitting up to his potential...the power would sure be nice.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ampoule's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Drew lifted his OPS 60 points tonight to 749.  That's 107 points higher than WMB.  Drew has even driven in more runs per game than WMB.

    The way Drew and Iglesias are playing right now, WMB returning will not make us a better team.

     




     

    What to do??  There is no doubt that the FO is well aware of this.

    Are their games played about equal?

    Secondarily, a similar situation exists somewhat with Ellsbury...the way Nava is leading off and the way Bradley is playing.

    It wouldn't surprise me if both their injuries take a little longer to heal than expected.



    Amp, I'm not sure the team thinks we are a better team with Drew over WMB. Just because the short sample sizes to start the season indicate Drew is doing better, does not mean Ben thinks it will contibue as such. Also, the true choice for Ben, in his eyes, is probably Iggy vs WMB. My quess is he thinks Iggy is hitting over his head and will come down to earth. He already showed he believed that by demoting Iggy after a decent start.

    Nava is an OB machine. I caught a lot of grief for saying it was "long past time" to demote Ells from the #1 slot, but how can you move Nava out of that slot now?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Lot's of players' numbers jumped tonight!

    Team leaders in OBP:

    1) Iggy  .452

    2) Pedey .411

    3) Nava  .405

    4) Papi   .402

    Team leaders in SLG:

    1) Carp  .630

    2) Papi  .627

    3) Iggy  .586

    4) Nava .500

    5) Napoli .498

    6) Salty .484

     

    Sox4ever

     
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