A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     




    I think he will be better offensively, but we can't know that at this time.  My point is , he is better right now. Of course that can change. He cannot sustain his current pace , and Drew certainly can improve. But right now , Iglesias is better , on offense and defense.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     



     I said his sample size is too small, BUT, if he does keep hitting this way then we could compare him to Drew. I never meant to imply he was a 400 hitter, although I can see where you might have misunderstood me. Basically, I meant if he can keep hitting the ball hard like he has, take more walks like he has, and keep his BA at a respectable number (250ish) and an OBP above 320, then we could compare them. I never said hes hitting better, but since you said that, I think He IS hitting the ball better. More lift on the ball, and squaring it up better.

     

    As far as Ells and JBJ, Ellsbury is starting to hit like weve seen before. Im not talking about the 2011 version, but the 300BA 360+OBP guy who reeks havoc on the base paths. JBJ hasnt proved ANYTHING in MLB. He still gets fooled easily at the plate and gets schooled on the inside high heat. He needs more work and I would not even think twice about choosing Ells over JBJ this year.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     

     




    I think he will be better offensively, but we can't know that at this time.  My point is , he is better right now. Of course that can change. He cannot sustain his current pace , and Drew certainly can improve. But right now , Iglesias is better , on offense and defense.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".

    Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     



     I said his sample size is too small, BUT, if he does keep hitting this way then we could compare him to Drew. I never meant to imply he was a 400 hitter, although I can see where you might have misunderstood me. Basically, I meant if he can keep hitting the ball hard like he has, take more walks like he has, and keep his BA at a respectable number (250ish) and an OBP above 320, then we could compare them. I never said hes hitting better, but since you said that, I think He IS hitting the ball better. More lift on the ball, and squaring it up better.

    He hasn't hit the ball hard.

     

    As far as Ells and JBJ, Ellsbury is starting to hit like weve seen before. Im not talking about the 2011 version, but the 300BA 360+OBP guy who reeks havoc on the base paths. JBJ hasnt proved ANYTHING in MLB. He still gets fooled easily at the plate and gets schooled on the inside high heat. He needs more work and I would not even think twice about choosing Ells over JBJ this year.

     I do think it is likely Ellsbury keeps hitting better than JBJ for the remainder of 2013. I have not said otherwise. My position is that JBJ is a better overall fielder, and Jacoby's offense is so suspect that the drop off may not be as great as the differential on defense plus the return in trade.




     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's some interesting data:

    162 game pace on the road only:

    HRs: Papi, 59, Middy 42, Nava 33, Napoli 28, Drew 25, Ross 23, Carp 21, Iggy 16, Salty 15, Gomes 13.

    RBI:  Papi 187, Lava 162, Naps 144, Nava 135

     

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iggy's hit log:

    1- IF

    2- Bunt

    3- IF

    4- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    5- 1B (Groundball LF)

    6- Bunt

    7- Line drive LF

    8- IF

    9- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    10- 1B (Groundball LF)

    11- IF

    12- 2B (Groundball RF)

    13- 1B (Line drive RF)

    14- 1B (Ground ball LF)

    15- IF 

    16- 2B (Line drive LF- deep)

    17- 1B (Line drive CF)

    18- 1B (Ground ball CF)

    19- 1B (Bloop LF)

    20- 1B (Line drive)

    21- HR (LF Deep)

    22- 2B (CF Deep)

    23- 1B (Line drive CF)

    24- 1B (Bloop RF)

    25- 1B (Ground ball LF)

     

    Iggy has an 18% Line Drive Rate this year.

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     

     

     




    I think he will be better offensively, but we can't know that at this time.  My point is , he is better right now. Of course that can change. He cannot sustain his current pace , and Drew certainly can improve. But right now , Iglesias is better , on offense and defense.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".

     

    Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.

    [/QUOTE]

    That is absolutely ridiculous. " Right now " refers to current performance. If you want to be literal, " right now " is only this one second. Everything else is past or future. You are very big on numbers, except when the numbers don't agree with your personal opinion. You use the term " small sample size " when it suits your purpose. Ignore it when it doesn't. This is your thread. It is called the "realistic " thread. Well , " right now " Iglesias and Ellsbury are considerably better than Drew and Bradley. That is " realistic". That is the reality, even if it does not agree with your personal opinion. You have gained much respect on this board , but I think you lose credibility when you are so obstinate as to defend your views with statements like " A person's BA and stats are the past: not " right now". That is extremely facetious and irrelevant. I think I will refrain from posting again on the " realistic " thread , since you prefer to ignore reality and insist on pushing your views, even when all the evidence refutes them. Sorry , but you are not being very realistic. It' s fine to be opinionated, most of us are. And your opinions are no more or less valid than anyone else's.  You can have the last word, after all it is your thread.  Try to come up with something more substantial than your smarmy reply to the previous post. I won't intrude on your little ego trip of a thread again. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".

     

     

    Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.

     



    That is absolutely ridiculous. " Right now " refers to current performance. If you want to be literal, " right now " is only this one second. Everything else is past or future.

    Exactly. Why is "right now" only the past up to April 1st, 2013? Why not career? Last 2 years?  3 years?

    Yes, I admit that when people say how is a player doing (present continuous tense), the common methodology for answering is their current season's performance numbers, but in reality, the sample size is often too small to really reflect how good or bad a player really is.

    Yes, Iggy's numbers are much better than Drew's this season, but both sample sizes are extremely small, and Iggy's numbers are highly inflated by infield hits and bloopers. There is no way I would say that right now, in this instant and going forward, that Iggy is a better hitter than Drew. My guess is you would not bet that Iggy will outhit Drew for the remainder of the season, right? What would you base your answer on? My guess is the belief that Drew is a better hitter and the numbers will reflect that over a larger sample size.

     

    You are very big on numbers, except when the numbers don't agree with your personal opinion.

    This makes no sense. I am for Iggy being our starting SS. If I wanted to use his tiny sample size for my position, I'd be saying he is a better hitter and fielder than Drew.

    My position on sample size judgements has been as constant as the sun and moon. 

    You use the term " small sample size " when it suits your purpose. Ignore it when it doesn't.

    Anytime I use a small sample size to support my position, I always qualify it with a statement that "this is a small sample size, but the trend looks nice" or something like that. Show me where I have ever made a derfinitive judgement on a tiny sample size. Just one example.

    This is your thread. It is called the "realistic " thread. Well , " right now " Iglesias and Ellsbury are considerably better than Drew and Bradley. That is " realistic". That is the reality, even if it does not agree with your personal opinion.

    Again, my opinion is that Iggy is better than Drew, so please get the facts straight and be realistic.

    Going forward, I seriously doubt anyone on this thread, except softy and maybe you, would project Iggy having better offensive numbers than Drew. That is because most of us realize that Drew is a better hitter, and Iggy will come down to earth over a larger sample size. I will not lie or distort numbers to support my view that Iggy is a better overall SS than Drew. I have laid out my reasons, supported it with data of much larger sample sizes that 60 or so PAs.

     

    You have gained much respect on this board , but I think you lose credibility when you are so obstinate as to defend your views with statements like " A person's BA and stats are the past: not " right now". That is extremely facetious and irrelevant.

    We are arguing semantics. I will admit that Iggy has been a better hitter than Drew so far this year by the numbers, but 60 PAs does not make him a better hitter right now. You may call it being "obstinate", but I happen to think it is an obvious truth.

     

    I think I will refrain from posting again on the " realistic " thread , since you prefer to ignore reality and insist on pushing your views, even when all the evidence refutes them. Sorry , but you are not being very realistic.

    I think it is you who are being unrealistic in saying Iggy is a better hitter based on 60+ PAs and a large percent of his hist being seeing eye grounders, bloop hits or bunts. (Bunt hits are a skill and part of being a good hitter, but I do not think Iggy will maintain a 100% bunt for hits rate over the full season.)

    Drew is a better hitter right now. If you want to talk tiny sample sizes like Iggy's, why not look at Drew's last 70 PAs? (.847 OPS in his last 83 PAs and 1.040 in his last 43) Who is more likely to continue their pace? And, why? The answer to the second question is why I say Drew is a better hitter right now.

     

    It' s fine to be opinionated, most of us are. And your opinions are no more or less valid than anyone else's.  You can have the last word, after all it is your thread.  Try to come up with something more substantial than your smarmy reply to the previous post. I won't intrude on your little ego trip of a thread again. 

    It's my opinion. I never said your opinion less valid, but read your last sentence about credibility. It sounds rather harsh and kind of like saying my opinion is not valid, does it not?

     Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Sounds very much like it is you who wants the last word. I won't assume it's about your ego, since that would be a personal assault on someone I do not know well eough to jump to conclusions about.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     



     I said his sample size is too small, BUT, if he does keep hitting this way then we could compare him to Drew. I never meant to imply he was a 400 hitter, although I can see where you might have misunderstood me. Basically, I meant if he can keep hitting the ball hard like he has, take more walks like he has, and keep his BA at a respectable number (250ish) and an OBP above 320, then we could compare them. I never said hes hitting better, but since you said that, I think He IS hitting the ball better. More lift on the ball, and squaring it up better.

    He hasn't hit the ball hard.

     

    As far as Ells and JBJ, Ellsbury is starting to hit like weve seen before. Im not talking about the 2011 version, but the 300BA 360+OBP guy who reeks havoc on the base paths. JBJ hasnt proved ANYTHING in MLB. He still gets fooled easily at the plate and gets schooled on the inside high heat. He needs more work and I would not even think twice about choosing Ells over JBJ this year.

     I do think it is likely Ellsbury keeps hitting better than JBJ for the remainder of 2013. I have not said otherwise. My position is that JBJ is a better overall fielder, and Jacoby's offense is so suspect that the drop off may not be as great as the differential on defense plus the return in trade.

     




     

    [/QUOTE]


    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Iggy's hit log:

    1- IF

    2- Bunt

    3- IF

    4- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    5- 1B (Groundball LF)

    6- Bunt

    7- Line drive LF

    8- IF

    9- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    10- 1B (Groundball LF)

    11- IF

    12- 2B (Groundball RF)

    13- 1B (Line drive RF)

    14- 1B (Ground ball LF)

    15- IF 

    16- 2B (Line drive LF- deep)

    17- 1B (Line drive CF)

    18- 1B (Ground ball CF)

    19- 1B (Bloop LF)

    20- 1B (Line drive)

    21- HR (LF Deep)

    22- 2B (CF Deep)

    23- 1B (Line drive CF)

    24- 1B (Bloop RF)

    25- 1B (Ground ball LF)

     

    Iggy has an 18% Line Drive Rate this year.

    Sox4ever




    which is better than his 4% he was hitting. Hes starting to square it up and hit the ball better as I said. You just proved me right. Thank you.Wink

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

    Yes, he is hitting the ball better. As you can see, 4 of his last 6 hits (before today) were hard hits, but his over all ungodly numbers are greatly influenced by the at least 7 IF or bunt hits, plus another 7 or so seeing eye grounders or bloop hits. Of course everyone gets some of those, so it's not fair taking all of Iggy's away, but he has certainly gotten more than his fair share thus far. 

    I'm not saying I'd adjust his BA to .220 or anything near that drastic, but over his first 70 PAs this year, he has not hit the ball especially hard. His LD% shows that. The game logs shgow that. His BA does not show that. And, for people to use his BA after 70 PAs as a reason to say he is a better hitter than Drew, is not what I call proper evaluation methodology.

    I'm really happy Iggy is getting hit after hit. It's got to be helping his confidence. It's keeping away his biggest critics as well.  I hope it continues. His .510 BAbip is fantastic, but very hard to sustain. As I said on another thread, even if Iggy improves his hitting, by hitting it harder more often, his numbers will still come down. He's not going to end up over .400 if his sample size gets over 350 PAs this year (probably even by the time he reaches 170 PAs).

    I'm pulling hard for Iggy, but it is his fielding that makes him the guy that should be our starting SS. His hitting is just icing on the cake.

    Sox4ever

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

    Yes, he is hitting the ball better. As you can see, 4 of his last 6 hits (before today) were hard hits, but his over all ungodly numbers are greatly influenced by the at least 7 IF or bunt hits, plus another 7 or so seeing eye grounders or bloop hits. Of course everyone gets some of those, so it's not fair taking all of Iggy's away, but he has certainly gotten more than his fair share thus far. 

    I'm not saying I'd adjust his BA to .220 or anything near that drastic, but over his first 70 PAs this year, he has not hit the ball especially hard. His LD% shows that. The game logs shgow that. His BA does not show that. And, for people to use his BA after 70 PAs as a reason to say he is a better hitter than Drew, is not what I call proper evaluation methodology.

    I'm really happy Iggy is getting hit after hit. It's got to be helping his confidence. It's keeping away his biggest critics as well.  I hope it continues. His .510 BAbip is fantastic, but very hard to sustain. As I said on another thread, even if Iggy improves his hitting, by hitting it harder more often, his numbers will still come down. He's not going to end up over .400 if his sample size gets over 350 PAs this year (probably even by the time he reaches 170 PAs).

    I'm pulling hard for Iggy, but it is his fielding that makes him the guy that should be our starting SS. His hitting is just icing on the cake.

    Sox4ever



    It's hard to believe he has been this lucky, for so long. it's mind boggling actually. I don't think I've ever seen someone have a BABIP of over .500 after 70 AB. Especially for a guy projeted to not hit better than .250. This is off the charts lucky.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, Boom! I've been on the Iggy bandwagon for two years now and I see considerable improvement at the plate. He is much more selective, which was arguably his biggest weakness prior to this season, and he is squaring up more balls more consistently. He's never going to be a masher, but you don't want the automatic out either, and right now he is far from an automatic out. And his defense will always be his calling card. I think Ciriaco's days are numbered once Middlebrooks is reactivated, but as long as the team is winning and Iggy is hitting over .400, I think they will give WMB plenty of time to regain more confidence. Now that I've said that, watch them activate WMB today;)

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Now that the season has moved into the middle innings it is becoming apparent to me and my red colored glasses that this team is now a legitimate contender. Obviously the caveat regarding health to key players (Pedroia, Ortiz, Lester, Buchholz and Bailey) must qualify their conterder status. But I haven't seen any team that looks any more legit at this point in the season. The pre-season favorites have been mediocre or worse. The Rangers, A's and Yankees are always in the mix. The Tigers look to be the one team that could run away from the pack, but they haven't. So why not our beloved Red Sox? We have top of the rotation stoppers, we have a very solid pen, and we play the game the way it's meant to be played, with a great mix of offense, defense, pitching and heart. We are never out of games. We wear out opposing pitchers. And for the first time in a couple of years, we are a team that makes you proud to be a Sox fan. 

    So while all the trade talk makes good discussion fodder, the bottom line is that any trade that subtracts from the current core is very unlikely to happen. And any trade that does happen will involve players who are two or three years away being moved for someone who can help us win it all this year. Keeping in mind that players two or three years from our 25 man roster might be prime time players in Houston, Miami, etc.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Assuming Middlebrooks hits well at Pawtuck, he'll probably rejoin the big club in a week or two. After checking their respective splits vs. R / L pitching, I foresee a platoon situation between Drew and Middy, with Iglesias moving back and forth between ss and 3b.

    At least until Iggy's bat cools off, hopefully after game 7 of World Series.

    This wouldn't do a lot for Middlebrooks hitting vs. R/H development, but would be an okay tradeoff if we're winning. Obviously health and pitching issues must cooperate in this scenario.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

    Yes, he is hitting the ball better. As you can see, 4 of his last 6 hits (before today) were hard hits, but his over all ungodly numbers are greatly influenced by the at least 7 IF or bunt hits, plus another 7 or so seeing eye grounders or bloop hits. Of course everyone gets some of those, so it's not fair taking all of Iggy's away, but he has certainly gotten more than his fair share thus far. 

    I'm not saying I'd adjust his BA to .220 or anything near that drastic, but over his first 70 PAs this year, he has not hit the ball especially hard. His LD% shows that. The game logs shgow that. His BA does not show that. And, for people to use his BA after 70 PAs as a reason to say he is a better hitter than Drew, is not what I call proper evaluation methodology.

    I'm really happy Iggy is getting hit after hit. It's got to be helping his confidence. It's keeping away his biggest critics as well.  I hope it continues. His .510 BAbip is fantastic, but very hard to sustain. As I said on another thread, even if Iggy improves his hitting, by hitting it harder more often, his numbers will still come down. He's not going to end up over .400 if his sample size gets over 350 PAs this year (probably even by the time he reaches 170 PAs).

    I'm pulling hard for Iggy, but it is his fielding that makes him the guy that should be our starting SS. His hitting is just icing on the cake.

    Sox4ever

     



    It's hard to believe he has been this lucky, for so long. it's mind boggling actually. I don't think I've ever seen someone have a BABIP of over .500 after 70 AB. Especially for a guy projeted to not hit better than .250. This is off the charts lucky.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It's nothing short of shocking, but I love it! 

    Perhaps no player in our whole system needed a confidence booster like this start by Iggy.

    He's at 79 PAs and still has a .508 BAbip!  Astounding!

    I never meant to belittle his bunt hits. Bunting for hits is a skill. His 100% bunting opps for hits is also astounding. I do think his IF hit rate will not stay as high. He is not Ichiro.

    These are tiny sample sizes we are talking about, but look at the difference between 2012 and 2013:

    12  77 PA  .118/.200/.191/.391  16 Ks  (.137 BAbip)

    13  79 PA  .443/.494/.571/1.065  11 Ks (.508 BAbip)

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Now that the season has moved into the middle innings it is becoming apparent to me and my red colored glasses that this team is now a legitimate contender. Obviously the caveat regarding health to key players (Pedroia, Ortiz, Lester, Buchholz and Bailey) must qualify their conterder status. But I haven't seen any team that looks any more legit at this point in the season. The pre-season favorites have been mediocre or worse. The Rangers, A's and Yankees are always in the mix. The Tigers look to be the one team that could run away from the pack, but they haven't. So why not our beloved Red Sox? We have top of the rotation stoppers, we have a very solid pen, and we play the game the way it's meant to be played, with a great mix of offense, defense, pitching and heart. We are never out of games. We wear out opposing pitchers. And for the first time in a couple of years, we are a team that makes you proud to be a Sox fan. 

    So while all the trade talk makes good discussion fodder, the bottom line is that any trade that subtracts from the current core is very unlikely to happen. And any trade that does happen will involve players who are two or three years away being moved for someone who can help us win it all this year. Keeping in mind that players two or three years from our 25 man roster might be prime time players in Houston, Miami, etc.



    I agree. This is the likely direction Ben will take, and with rule 5 issues pending, a 3 for one deal this deadline can help us now, and make roster decisions easier next winter.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jimedfred's comment:


    Assuming Middlebrooks hits well at Pawtuck, he'll probably rejoin the big club in a week or two. After checking their respective splits vs. R / L pitching, I foresee a platoon situation between Drew and Middy, with Iglesias moving back and forth between ss and 3b.

    At least until Iggy's bat cools off, hopefully after game 7 of World Series.

    This wouldn't do a lot for Middlebrooks hitting vs. R/H development, but would be an okay tradeoff if we're winning. Obviously health and pitching issues must cooperate in this scenario.



    So, it would be something like this:

    SS: Drew plays about 65% of the games (all vs RHPs)/ Iggy plays 35% (all vs LHPs).

    3B: Middlebrooks plays 65% of the games (all vs LHPs and about half vs RHPs)/ Iggy plays 35% of the games (vs the RHPs that Middy sits against)

    They all play in about 67% of the games.

    It could work out well, but chances are one will play well enough to become a FT'er.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Before today, here are the Sox BAbip numbers:

    Iggy  .508

    Carp  .412

    Salty .389

    Naps  .381

    Pedey .373

    Nava   .336

    Ells     .322

    Ortiz  .308

    Vict    .307

    Drew .304

    League average: .297

    Lava   .286

    Ross   .267

    Ciria   .263

    Gomes .244

    Midd     .237

    JBJ        .206

     

    Runs created per Game (27 outs with 9 of these guys all in the line-up)

    Iggy  13.8

    Carp   9.3

    Ortiz   8.0

    Pedey 7.3

    Nava   7.2

    Salty   6.0

    Naps    5.9

    Ellsb    5.4

    Drew    4.8

    League avg: 4.6

    Vict  .4.5

    Ross  4.4

    Gomes 4.3

    Ciriaco 3.9

    Midd   2.7

    JBJ  2.4

    Lava 0.0

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Runs scored this year:

    0-4: 29

    5:  5

    6+: 30 (counting today)

    We have a solid mean of 5. If we score 6+ runs in the next 5 games, our mean will be  an amzing 6!

    Runs allowed:

    0-2: 21

    3: 12

    4: 9

    5+: 21

    Our mean allowed is 3!

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was watching some of the Blue Jays-Rangers game today on Rogers Sportsnet.  Jack Morris and Buck Martinez were commentating for the Jays.

    Morris had some issues with the way Blue Jays catcher Josh Thole was setting his glove for pitcher Josh Johnson.  He thought Thole was setting up too much on the corners of the plate and leaving Johnson too little room for error in trying to hit the target.  He was saying that Thole should be positioning the glove a little closer to the middle of the plate, with a target of inner third or outer third instead of directly on the corners.  Martinez agreed with him.

    I thought it was some interesting input into the discussion of how catchers interact with pitchers.  Especially since it wasn't coming from a couple of message board posters, but from a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher and a guy who caught 1,000 games in the majors.

      

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    There are so many little things a catcher can do or not do the effects a pitcher's performance. 

    There are also larger things.

    I give a lot of credit for our staff turn around to Farrell, but Salty and Ross have had a hand in their success as well.

    Couple that with Salty's massive improvement in OBP, and catching is now clearly a strength not a weakness on this team.

    Sox4ever

     

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