A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

    Yes, he is hitting the ball better. As you can see, 4 of his last 6 hits (before today) were hard hits, but his over all ungodly numbers are greatly influenced by the at least 7 IF or bunt hits, plus another 7 or so seeing eye grounders or bloop hits. Of course everyone gets some of those, so it's not fair taking all of Iggy's away, but he has certainly gotten more than his fair share thus far. 

    I'm not saying I'd adjust his BA to .220 or anything near that drastic, but over his first 70 PAs this year, he has not hit the ball especially hard. His LD% shows that. The game logs shgow that. His BA does not show that. And, for people to use his BA after 70 PAs as a reason to say he is a better hitter than Drew, is not what I call proper evaluation methodology.

    I'm really happy Iggy is getting hit after hit. It's got to be helping his confidence. It's keeping away his biggest critics as well.  I hope it continues. His .510 BAbip is fantastic, but very hard to sustain. As I said on another thread, even if Iggy improves his hitting, by hitting it harder more often, his numbers will still come down. He's not going to end up over .400 if his sample size gets over 350 PAs this year (probably even by the time he reaches 170 PAs).

    I'm pulling hard for Iggy, but it is his fielding that makes him the guy that should be our starting SS. His hitting is just icing on the cake.

    Sox4ever



    It's hard to believe he has been this lucky, for so long. it's mind boggling actually. I don't think I've ever seen someone have a BABIP of over .500 after 70 AB. Especially for a guy projeted to not hit better than .250. This is off the charts lucky.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, Boom! I've been on the Iggy bandwagon for two years now and I see considerable improvement at the plate. He is much more selective, which was arguably his biggest weakness prior to this season, and he is squaring up more balls more consistently. He's never going to be a masher, but you don't want the automatic out either, and right now he is far from an automatic out. And his defense will always be his calling card. I think Ciriaco's days are numbered once Middlebrooks is reactivated, but as long as the team is winning and Iggy is hitting over .400, I think they will give WMB plenty of time to regain more confidence. Now that I've said that, watch them activate WMB today;)

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Now that the season has moved into the middle innings it is becoming apparent to me and my red colored glasses that this team is now a legitimate contender. Obviously the caveat regarding health to key players (Pedroia, Ortiz, Lester, Buchholz and Bailey) must qualify their conterder status. But I haven't seen any team that looks any more legit at this point in the season. The pre-season favorites have been mediocre or worse. The Rangers, A's and Yankees are always in the mix. The Tigers look to be the one team that could run away from the pack, but they haven't. So why not our beloved Red Sox? We have top of the rotation stoppers, we have a very solid pen, and we play the game the way it's meant to be played, with a great mix of offense, defense, pitching and heart. We are never out of games. We wear out opposing pitchers. And for the first time in a couple of years, we are a team that makes you proud to be a Sox fan. 

    So while all the trade talk makes good discussion fodder, the bottom line is that any trade that subtracts from the current core is very unlikely to happen. And any trade that does happen will involve players who are two or three years away being moved for someone who can help us win it all this year. Keeping in mind that players two or three years from our 25 man roster might be prime time players in Houston, Miami, etc.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Assuming Middlebrooks hits well at Pawtuck, he'll probably rejoin the big club in a week or two. After checking their respective splits vs. R / L pitching, I foresee a platoon situation between Drew and Middy, with Iglesias moving back and forth between ss and 3b.

    At least until Iggy's bat cools off, hopefully after game 7 of World Series.

    This wouldn't do a lot for Middlebrooks hitting vs. R/H development, but would be an okay tradeoff if we're winning. Obviously health and pitching issues must cooperate in this scenario.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

    Yes, he is hitting the ball better. As you can see, 4 of his last 6 hits (before today) were hard hits, but his over all ungodly numbers are greatly influenced by the at least 7 IF or bunt hits, plus another 7 or so seeing eye grounders or bloop hits. Of course everyone gets some of those, so it's not fair taking all of Iggy's away, but he has certainly gotten more than his fair share thus far. 

    I'm not saying I'd adjust his BA to .220 or anything near that drastic, but over his first 70 PAs this year, he has not hit the ball especially hard. His LD% shows that. The game logs shgow that. His BA does not show that. And, for people to use his BA after 70 PAs as a reason to say he is a better hitter than Drew, is not what I call proper evaluation methodology.

    I'm really happy Iggy is getting hit after hit. It's got to be helping his confidence. It's keeping away his biggest critics as well.  I hope it continues. His .510 BAbip is fantastic, but very hard to sustain. As I said on another thread, even if Iggy improves his hitting, by hitting it harder more often, his numbers will still come down. He's not going to end up over .400 if his sample size gets over 350 PAs this year (probably even by the time he reaches 170 PAs).

    I'm pulling hard for Iggy, but it is his fielding that makes him the guy that should be our starting SS. His hitting is just icing on the cake.

    Sox4ever

     



    It's hard to believe he has been this lucky, for so long. it's mind boggling actually. I don't think I've ever seen someone have a BABIP of over .500 after 70 AB. Especially for a guy projeted to not hit better than .250. This is off the charts lucky.

     



    It's nothing short of shocking, but I love it! 

    Perhaps no player in our whole system needed a confidence booster like this start by Iggy.

    He's at 79 PAs and still has a .508 BAbip!  Astounding!

    I never meant to belittle his bunt hits. Bunting for hits is a skill. His 100% bunting opps for hits is also astounding. I do think his IF hit rate will not stay as high. He is not Ichiro.

    These are tiny sample sizes we are talking about, but look at the difference between 2012 and 2013:

    12  77 PA  .118/.200/.191/.391  16 Ks  (.137 BAbip)

    13  79 PA  .443/.494/.571/1.065  11 Ks (.508 BAbip)

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Now that the season has moved into the middle innings it is becoming apparent to me and my red colored glasses that this team is now a legitimate contender. Obviously the caveat regarding health to key players (Pedroia, Ortiz, Lester, Buchholz and Bailey) must qualify their conterder status. But I haven't seen any team that looks any more legit at this point in the season. The pre-season favorites have been mediocre or worse. The Rangers, A's and Yankees are always in the mix. The Tigers look to be the one team that could run away from the pack, but they haven't. So why not our beloved Red Sox? We have top of the rotation stoppers, we have a very solid pen, and we play the game the way it's meant to be played, with a great mix of offense, defense, pitching and heart. We are never out of games. We wear out opposing pitchers. And for the first time in a couple of years, we are a team that makes you proud to be a Sox fan. 

    So while all the trade talk makes good discussion fodder, the bottom line is that any trade that subtracts from the current core is very unlikely to happen. And any trade that does happen will involve players who are two or three years away being moved for someone who can help us win it all this year. Keeping in mind that players two or three years from our 25 man roster might be prime time players in Houston, Miami, etc.



    I agree. This is the likely direction Ben will take, and with rule 5 issues pending, a 3 for one deal this deadline can help us now, and make roster decisions easier next winter.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jimedfred's comment:


    Assuming Middlebrooks hits well at Pawtuck, he'll probably rejoin the big club in a week or two. After checking their respective splits vs. R / L pitching, I foresee a platoon situation between Drew and Middy, with Iglesias moving back and forth between ss and 3b.

    At least until Iggy's bat cools off, hopefully after game 7 of World Series.

    This wouldn't do a lot for Middlebrooks hitting vs. R/H development, but would be an okay tradeoff if we're winning. Obviously health and pitching issues must cooperate in this scenario.



    So, it would be something like this:

    SS: Drew plays about 65% of the games (all vs RHPs)/ Iggy plays 35% (all vs LHPs).

    3B: Middlebrooks plays 65% of the games (all vs LHPs and about half vs RHPs)/ Iggy plays 35% of the games (vs the RHPs that Middy sits against)

    They all play in about 67% of the games.

    It could work out well, but chances are one will play well enough to become a FT'er.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Before today, here are the Sox BAbip numbers:

    Iggy  .508

    Carp  .412

    Salty .389

    Naps  .381

    Pedey .373

    Nava   .336

    Ells     .322

    Ortiz  .308

    Vict    .307

    Drew .304

    League average: .297

    Lava   .286

    Ross   .267

    Ciria   .263

    Gomes .244

    Midd     .237

    JBJ        .206

     

    Runs created per Game (27 outs with 9 of these guys all in the line-up)

    Iggy  13.8

    Carp   9.3

    Ortiz   8.0

    Pedey 7.3

    Nava   7.2

    Salty   6.0

    Naps    5.9

    Ellsb    5.4

    Drew    4.8

    League avg: 4.6

    Vict  .4.5

    Ross  4.4

    Gomes 4.3

    Ciriaco 3.9

    Midd   2.7

    JBJ  2.4

    Lava 0.0

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Runs scored this year:

    0-4: 29

    5:  5

    6+: 30 (counting today)

    We have a solid mean of 5. If we score 6+ runs in the next 5 games, our mean will be  an amzing 6!

    Runs allowed:

    0-2: 21

    3: 12

    4: 9

    5+: 21

    Our mean allowed is 3!

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I was watching some of the Blue Jays-Rangers game today on Rogers Sportsnet.  Jack Morris and Buck Martinez were commentating for the Jays.

    Morris had some issues with the way Blue Jays catcher Josh Thole was setting his glove for pitcher Josh Johnson.  He thought Thole was setting up too much on the corners of the plate and leaving Johnson too little room for error in trying to hit the target.  He was saying that Thole should be positioning the glove a little closer to the middle of the plate, with a target of inner third or outer third instead of directly on the corners.  Martinez agreed with him.

    I thought it was some interesting input into the discussion of how catchers interact with pitchers.  Especially since it wasn't coming from a couple of message board posters, but from a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher and a guy who caught 1,000 games in the majors.

      

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    There are so many little things a catcher can do or not do the effects a pitcher's performance. 

    There are also larger things.

    I give a lot of credit for our staff turn around to Farrell, but Salty and Ross have had a hand in their success as well.

    Couple that with Salty's massive improvement in OBP, and catching is now clearly a strength not a weakness on this team.

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We now have the best record in the AL.

    We play in a division with 4 of 5 teams over .500, and our last place team has a better winning percent than 3 other AL teams and is just a game behind 2 others. (That's just a game and a half behind being in the middle 5 of the AL.)

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Although our team still struggles vs lefthanded pitching, we are showing signs of being a more balanced team from top to bottom and away vs home.

    Top to bottom:

    1) .746

    2) .774

    3) .885

    4) .994

    5) .747

    6) .760

    7) .851

    8) .707

    9) .753

    No slots below .707 and only 1 below .747.

     

    In 2012, we had 5 slots  below .710 and 3 below .674.

    In 2011, we had 2 slots below .696.

    In 2010,  we had 2 slots below .687 and 3 below .705.

    In 2009, we had 1 slot below .694.

    In 2008, we had 3 slots below .697.

    In 2007, we had 1 slot below .632 and 2 below .713.

     

    Home: .818/ Away .789 (.029 differential

    Home: 5.22 Runs per game/ Away: 5.28 runs per game

    2012: .087 better OPS at home and a 1.39 more runs per gm at home.

    2011: .059 better OPS at home and .56 more runs/gm at home

    2010: .027 better OPS at home and 1.78 more runs/gm at home.

    2009: .109 better OPS at home and .72 more runs/gm at home.

    2008: .068 better OPS at home and .62 more runs/gm at home.

    2007: .076 better OPS at home and .95 more runs/gm at home.

     

    Now, if we can fix the lefty righty thing, we could really call ourselves the most balanced Sox team in many years.

    Before today's game we had a .102 better OPS vs RHPs than LHPs. (.070 when a RHP starts vs a LHP)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sox OBP after today's game:

    Iggy    .494

    Pedey .416

    Nava   .395

    Ortiz   .394

    Carp    .366

    Ellsb    .348

    Naps    .347

    Salty    .341

    Gomes .340

    Vict      .338

    Drew    .330

    Ross     .303

    Ciriaco .293

    JBJ       .254

    Midd     .234

    Lava     .222

     

    SLG%

    Carp   .682

    Ortiz   .637

    Iggy   .581

    Salty  .515

    Nava  .472

    Naps  .470

    Pedey .462

    Ross    .448

    Drew   .409

    Ells     .393

    Lava   .375

    Vict     .356

    Ciri     .353

    Gomes .342

    JBJ       .269

     

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We've reached the 40% mark of the season and have the best record in the AL at 39-25. To finish with 90 wins, we'll have to go 51-47. We have a tough schedule ahead. 6 more road games than home, the always tough west coast trip, and some other tough series ahead.

    So far, only the Cards have a better road winning percentage than us, but as I pointed out, we have some tough trips ahead.

    Here are our road series ahead:

    June:

    TB 3

    Bal 4

    Det 4

     

    July:

    LAA 3

    Sea 4

    Oak 3 (10 game trip right before the allstar break)

    Bal 3

     

    August:

    Hou 3

    KC 4

    Tor 3

    SF 3

    LAD 3

     

    Sept:

    NYY 4

    TB 3

    Col 2

    Bal 3 (ending the season with 5 road games)

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

     

    Sox4everSox hard hitters?

    LD%:

    Lava  43%

    Salty  30

    Naps  27

    Nava  27

    Drew 25

    Pedey 22

    Ciri    22

    Vict   21

    Midd  20

    Ells    19

    Gomes 18

    Ross   18

    Ortiz 17

    Iggy  17

    JBJ  17

    Carp 14

     

    Last 30 Days:

    Lava  43

    Salty 33

    Naps  32

    Ross 29

    Nava  27

    Pedey 24

    Drew  24

    Iggy  23

    Gomes 19

    JBJ  19

    Ciri  18

    Vict  17

    Ortiz 15

    Ells  15

    Midd  14

    Carp 11

     

     

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Great information, Moon.  Thank you..

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Trying to keep it real, amp. You're welcome.

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    So far during this brutal 23-game schedule vs. top AL teams, the Red Sox are 6-3 by taking two out of three vs. the Yankees, Rangers an Angels.  

    Next is Tampa and I am confident that the Red Sox will take two out of three.  

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ortiz is on fire, Drew is has been on fire, Ellsbury is on fire, Iglesias is on fire, Even Salty has looked much better at the plate this year.  His hit tool is much improved.

    The pitching has been good.  I've been a little concerned with the high rate of walks from the pitching staff but so far the good has outweighed the bad in the pitching department.

    If Middlebrooks comes back and starts to hit and Victorino can come back and stay healthy then I will much more confident in this offense.

    The offense has been good stat wise but I've been worried about them vs. superior pitching...but I'm coming around. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Ortiz is on fire, Drew is has been on fire, Ellsbury is on fire, Iglesias is on fire, Even Salty has looked much better at the plate this year.  His hit tool is much improved.

    The pitching has been good.  I've been a little concerned with the high rate of walks from the pitching staff but so far the good has outweighed the bad in the pitching department.

    If Middlebrooks comes back and starts to hit and Victorino can come back and stay healthy then I will much more confident in this offense.

    The offense has been good stat wise but I've been worried about them vs. superior pitching...but I'm coming around. 




    Most guys will get shut down most times with great pitchers. Im a lot more forgiving with that, As long as they hit the ones they should. THATS what kills me.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Ortiz is on fire, Drew is has been on fire, Ellsbury is on fire, Iglesias is on fire, Even Salty has looked much better at the plate this year.  His hit tool is much improved.

    The pitching has been good.  I've been a little concerned with the high rate of walks from the pitching staff but so far the good has outweighed the bad in the pitching department.

    If Middlebrooks comes back and starts to hit and Victorino can come back and stay healthy then I will much more confident in this offense.

    The offense has been good stat wise but I've been worried about them vs. superior pitching...but I'm coming around. 

     




    Most guys will get shut down most times with great pitchers. Im a lot more forgiving with that, As long as they hit the ones they should. THATS what kills me.

     



    This is true, but they looked particularly lost against some tough teams at times this year (which I think they have completely turned around by the way).  That was what I was eluding too.  I had the first Texas series in mind.  Of course one series means very little, but you are going to have to have a balanced offense going into the postseason. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    Ortiz is on fire, Drew is has been on fire, Ellsbury is on fire, Iglesias is on fire, Even Salty has looked much better at the plate this year.  His hit tool is much improved.

    The pitching has been good.  I've been a little concerned with the high rate of walks from the pitching staff but so far the good has outweighed the bad in the pitching department.

    If Middlebrooks comes back and starts to hit and Victorino can come back and stay healthy then I will much more confident in this offense.

    The offense has been good stat wise but I've been worried about them vs. superior pitching...but I'm coming around. 

     

     




    Most guys will get shut down most times with great pitchers. Im a lot more forgiving with that, As long as they hit the ones they should. THATS what kills me.

     

     

     



    This is true, but they looked particularly lost against some tough teams at times this year (which I think they have completely turned around by the way).  That was what I was eluding too.  I had the first Texas series in mind.  Of course one series means very little, but you are going to have to have a balanced offense going into the postseason. 

     




    They did look lost against Texas. That was the start of their 1st slump I believe. I understand what you saying.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    Ortiz is on fire, Drew is has been on fire, Ellsbury is on fire, Iglesias is on fire, Even Salty has looked much better at the plate this year.  His hit tool is much improved.

    The pitching has been good.  I've been a little concerned with the high rate of walks from the pitching staff but so far the good has outweighed the bad in the pitching department.

    If Middlebrooks comes back and starts to hit and Victorino can come back and stay healthy then I will much more confident in this offense.

    The offense has been good stat wise but I've been worried about them vs. superior pitching...but I'm coming around. 

     

     

     




    Most guys will get shut down most times with great pitchers. Im a lot more forgiving with that, As long as they hit the ones they should. THATS what kills me.

     

     

     

     

     



    This is true, but they looked particularly lost against some tough teams at times this year (which I think they have completely turned around by the way).  That was what I was eluding too.  I had the first Texas series in mind.  Of course one series means very little, but you are going to have to have a balanced offense going into the postseason. 

     

     

     




    They did look lost against Texas. That was the start of their 1st slump I believe. I understand what you saying.

     



    Which has made their recent success all the more comforting.  After this teams performance the last few years it has become easy to grow weary when they start playing bad.  But the fact that this team has been able to recover from loses and slumps and go on a good streak again has been very encouraging.

    The season is still relatively young, however it's not that young.....and we are still in first.

     
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