A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I like stats too, but this year I think the Sox have an extra dimension, call it team chemistry, that keeps them winning games. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    I like stats too, but this year I think the Sox have an extra dimension, call it team chemistry, that keeps them winning games. 




    Absolutely!  You can't put a number on personality, attitude, and desire to win.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I've never been a big believer in chemistry being a major factor in winning or losing, but how else can you explain a team like the the Cardinal's continuing succces?

    The Sox certainly have better chemistry than recent years, but we haven't really been tested so far this year. The true measure of good chemistry, is how the team handles adversity or a losing stretch.

    I hope we never have to get tested, but my guess is, we will have a rough patch or two before this season is over.

    I can't believe we are nearly at the halfway point and have the best record in the AL.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's an interesting take on the newly rated Sox top 10 prospects:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/28488/soxprospects-top-10-strongest-since-07

     

    ESPN seems to think our farm is weak beyond the top 10.  I disagree.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!

     



    True, but his road numbers kill us at times. I'd like more balance, but Salty is probably best suited for the Sox.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    He might be a good fit in Houston!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever



    I think if looked at as a snapshot in time it's even better. We didn't know how guys like Buchholz would turn out but we don't know where these guys end up either. Imagine that there are lots of guys not even on that list like Workman who would be top 5 for a lot of teams.  

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!

     

     

     



    True, but his road numbers kill us at times. I'd like more balance, but Salty is probably best suited for the Sox.

     

     

     

     

     



    He might be a good fit in Houston!

     

     

     




    Since Jason Castro is there and doing a fine job for next to nothing and a lst place team having no need for a 2 month rental, I highly doubt it. But yeah, keep trying to get rid of our starting catcher for no good reason. Your dislike for Salty is obviouslt clouding your common sense and judgement.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Toronto is getting hot.

    • 8-game winning streak
    • Bullpen has pitched 24 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run
    • Cecil has retired 38 batters without allowing a hit
    • Buehrle has a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts.

    Toronto's next ten games are against division opponents (they face the O's tonight).

    The AL East is going to get more tight (thanks to Bailey).  

     

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    Toronto is getting hot.

    • 8-game winning streak
    • Bullpen has pitched 24 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run
    • Cecil has retired 38 batters without allowing a hit
    • Buehrle has a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts.

    Toronto's next ten games are against division opponents (they face the O's tonight).

    The AL East is going to get more tight (thanks to Bailey).  

     

     



    The O's have been playing very well too. I'm glad the Jays and O's play now- one has to lose!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Toronto is getting hot.

    • 8-game winning streak
    • Bullpen has pitched 24 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run
    • Cecil has retired 38 batters without allowing a hit
    • Buehrle has a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts.

    Toronto's next ten games are against division opponents (they face the O's tonight).

    The AL East is going to get more tight (thanks to Bailey).  

     

     

     



    The O's have been playing very well too. I'm glad the Jays and O's play now- one has to lose!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good morning moonslav59   Laughing

    I agree with you.  I hope that Toronto wins two out of three vs. the O's (since the O's are tied in the loss column with the Red Sox).  

    Or I hope both teams play three, 15-inning games so that their bullpens get depleted.  LOL

    I also enjoy seeing the Rays playing the Yankees.  Like you said, "One has to lose."   Cool

     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever

     



    I think if looked at as a snapshot in time it's even better. We didn't know how guys like Buchholz would turn out but we don't know where these guys end up either. Imagine that there are lots of guys not even on that list like Workman who would be top 5 for a lot of teams.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree. I think it was pretty lame of ESPN to call our prospects below the top 10 as the weakest in recent years.

    soxprospects has this for the rest of the top 40...

    11) Brentz

    12) Workman

    13) Marrero

    14) Britton

    15) Wilson

    16) B Johnson

    17) Almanzar (from #47)

    18) Vazquez (from #25)

    19) Coyle (from #27)

    20) Margot

    21) Montas

    22) Betts (from #53)

    23) Hazelbaker (from #33)

    24) de la Cruz

    25) Jacobs

    26) T-W Lin

    27) Buttrey

    28) Callahan

    29) Mercedes

    30) Holt

    31) de la Torred

    32) Hassan

    33) C Martin

    34) Huntzinger

    35 Ramos

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    38) Vinicio

    39) C Hernandez

    40) T Shaw

    I could see several players from these 30 making it to be a significant MLB player. I think this is as deep as we've been in a long time. We may be adding new signees to this list as well.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We are now 5 games from the halfway point of the season. The sample sizes are growing, although some are still a bit too small to have that full feeling of legitimacy.

    Here are the current Sox numbers of all players with 60+ PAs:

     

    OBP:

    Iggy   .482 (only 114 PAs, but if he goes just 7 for his next 86, he'd still be at .300)

    Pede  .393

    Papi   .386

    Carp  .379 (about the same PAs as Iggy)

    Nava .375 (dropping some, but still getting big hits)

    Ellsb  .351 (on the rise)

    Vict   .351 (welcome back!)

    Napo .344 (could use a boost here)

    Salty .329 (dropping of late)

    Gomes .323 (on the rise- finally)

    Drew   .307 (238 PAs)

    Ross    .274  (only 75 PAs)

    Midd    .228 (8th on the team in PAs, so he has had his chances)

     

    7 guys with an OPS over .797:

    Carp 1.065, Iggy 1.061, Papi .988, Nava .824, Pedey .812, Salty .799, & Nap .797.

    2 guys still able to get near .800:

    Vict .743 & Ells .741

    2 guys able to get over .700 and maybe .750+:

    Drew .688 & Gomes .688

    1 guy lost in a downward spiral:

    Midd .617

     

    IP and ERA+

    Lester  100  94

    Demp   89  101

    Buch    84   251

    Doub   74      98

    Lack    71   142

    Acev    36     86

    Taza   33    176

    Mort   30      81

    Ueh    30    206

    Mill    27    144

    Bail   22     108

    Bres  22     149

    Wils  21     169

    Mora 10      82

     

    WHIP: 2013 (last 28 days) Red= trend good/ Blue = trend bad

    Ueh  0.867 (0.677)

    Buch 1.020 (0.857 

    Bres 1.062 (0.923)

     

    Taza 1.121 (1.200)

     

    Lack 1.206 (1.295)

    Bail   1.299 (2.125)

     

    Demp 1.354 (1.277)

    Lest   1.365  (2.024)

    Mill     1.370 (1.543)

     

    Doub  1.486 (1.141) Huge trend to the good.

     

    Wils   1.571  (1.500)

    Mort   1.582 (1.895)

    Mora  1.600 (1.600)

    Acev   1.738 (1.412)

     

     

     

     

     

    SLG:

    Carp  .686 (20 EBHs out of 34 hits!)

    Papi   .602 (rumors of "lost pop" were just dead wrong. 54 RBIs)

    Iggy   .578 (perhaps a bigger surprise than his .482 OPB.)

    Salty  .470 (less HRs/more 2Bs)

    Napo  .454 (still 2nd on the the team in RBIs with 49)

    Nava  .449 (big jump from his career average)

    Pede  .419 (only 4 HRs, but no rise in 2Bs)

    Ross  .400 (mostly his EBHs came early in the season)

    Vict   .392 (on the rise)

    Ellsb  .391 (1 HR after over 30two years ago? hmmmm)

    Midd  .389 (take away those multiple HR games... yuck!)

    Drew .381 (5th on team in PAs)

    Gomes .365 (on thhe rise)

     

     

     

    Sox4ever 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever

     

     



    I think if looked at as a snapshot in time it's even better. We didn't know how guys like Buchholz would turn out but we don't know where these guys end up either. Imagine that there are lots of guys not even on that list like Workman who would be top 5 for a lot of teams.  

     

     

     



    Workman, i thought, looked pretty good in ST. Looking at some stats, he's never had an ERA over 3.71. 65 milb games, 30 HR against, He's walking too many ( 3 AAA games, 8 BB ), and he hasnt done particularly well behind in the count. But, again i liked what i saw.

     

     

    Ht: 6' 4" Wt: 195 Bats: RThrows: R Born: 08/13/1988,Bowie, TX College: Texas

    Games   SPLITS: (CURRENT TEAM ONLY)
    SITUATION W L ERA G

    Starter 2 1 1.89 3

    vs Left -- -- 2.13 --

    vs Right -- -- 1.42 --

    Home Games 0 1 1.42 1

    Away Games 2 0 2.13 2

    Night Games 2 1 1.89 3

    On Grass 2 1 1.89 3

    June 2 1 1.89 3

    Pre All-Star 2 1 1.89 3

    Behind in Count -- -- 4.50 --

    Ahead in Count -- -- 1.08 --

    Bases Empty -- -- 2.16 --

    Runners On -- -- 1.69 --

    Scoring Position -- -- 2.84 --

    ERA   CAREER Totals W L ERA G

    AAA 2 1 1.89 3

    AA 8 2 3.57 16

    A(Adv) 7 7 3.40 20

    A(Full) 6 7 3.71 26

    Minors 23 17 3.48 65

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Maybe Workman will get a shot this year. Webster may not (this year).

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    "It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe."

     

    Someone's got it in for me, they're planting stories in the press
    Whoever it is I wish they'd cut it out quick but when they will I can only guess
    They say I shot a man named Gray and took his wife to Italy
    She inherited a million bucks and when she died it came to me
    I can't help it if I'm lucky.

    People see me all the time and they just can't remember how to act
    Their minds are filled with big ideas, images and distorted facts
    Even you yesterday you had to ask me where it was at
    I couldn't believe after all these years you didn't know even me better than that
    Sweet lady.

    Idiot wind blowing every time your move your mouth
    Blowing down the backroads heading south
    Idiot wind blowing every time you move your teeth
    You're an idiot babe
    It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe

    I ran into the fortune-teller who said beware of lightning that might strike
    I haven't known peace and quit for so long I can't remember what it's like
    There's a lone soldier on the cross smoke pouring out of a boxcar door
    You didn't know it you didn't think it could be done in the final end he won the wars
    After losing every battle.

    I woke up on the roadside daydreaming about the way things sometimes are
    Visions of your chestnut mare shoot through my head and are making me see stars
    You hurt the ones that I love best and cover up the truth with lies
    One day you'll be in the ditch, flies buzzing around your eyes
    Blood on your saddle.

    Idiot wind blowing through the flowers on your tomb
    Blowing through the curtains in your room
    Idiot wind blowing every time you move your teeth
    You're an idiot babe
    It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

    It was gravity which pulled us down and destiny which broke us apart
    You tamed the lion in my cage but it just wasn't enough to change my heart
    Now everything's a little upside down, as a matter of fact the wheels have stopped
    What's good is bad what's bad is good you'll find out when you reach the top
    You're on the bottom.I noticed at the ceremony, your corrupt ways had finally made you blind
    I can't remember your face anymore, your mouth has changed your eyes don't look 
    Into mine
    The priest wore black on the seventh day and sat stone faced while the 
    Building burned
    I waited for you on the running boards, near the cypress trees while the 
    Springtime turned
    Slowly into autumn.

    Idiot wind blowing like a circle around my skull
    From the Grand Coulee Dam to Capitol
    Idiot wind blowing every time you move you teeth
    You're an idiot babe.
    It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

    I can't feel you anymore, I can't even touch the books you've read
    Every time I crawl past your door, I been wishing I was somebody else instead
    Down the highway down the tracks down the road to ecstasy
    I followed you beneath the stars hounded by your memory
    And all you raging glory.

    I been double-crossed now for the very last time and now I'm finally free
    I kissed goodbye the howling beast on the borderline which separated you from me
    You'll never know the hurt I suffered not the pain I raise above
    And I'll never know the same about you your holiness or your kind of love
    And it makes me feel so sorry.

    Idiot wind blowing through the buttons of our coats
    Blowing through the letters that we wrote
    Idiot wind blowing through the dust upon our shelves
    We're idiots babe
    It's a wonder we can even feed ourselves.

       - Bob Dylan

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    The Rays are now in last place.  Every team in the AL East is playing better than .500.  Like I said, the AL EAst is going to get tighter. 

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It took Toronto a 10 game win streak to be tied for last place.

    The Yanks still scare me more than anyone else in the east.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Test for team character time.

    Bad call- get over it!

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    That wasnt just a bad call. That changed the whole complexion of the game. 1 out none on, to 0 outs 1 on in the 8th inning.

    I dont blame them for bringing it up, but I didnt hear anyone on that team use it as an excuse for the loss.

    Still in 1st place with some challenges ahead of them. That series very easily could be 3-1 Sox. Bailey blown game, an umpire bad call and it snowballed from there. The injuries are adding up though.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    That wasnt just a bad call. That changed the whole complexion of the game. 1 out none on, to 0 outs 1 on in the 8th inning.

    I dont blame them for bringing it up, but I didnt hear anyone on that team use it as an excuse for the loss.

    Still in 1st place with some challenges ahead of them. That series very easily could be 3-1 Sox. Bailey blown game, an umpire bad call and it snowballed from there. The injuries are adding up though.



    All teams have tons of "what ifs". I'm curious to how this team handles adversity. I think we will do fine, but this will be a test.

    Home for 2 vs COL, then 4 vs the red hot Jays (kinda wish we played them more when they were struggling), followed by 3 vs SD.  9 games we need to pay attention to and not stumble.

    To me, one of our biggest tests of the season come from July 5th to the 14th and 19th to 28th:

    3 @ LAA

    4 @ SEA

    3 @ Oak

    Allstar Break

    3 vs NYY

    4 vs TBR

    3 @ Bal

    We should know a lot more about this clb after these 20 games.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One thing i took away from the Detroit series is that their OF is way better & faster than what the   announcers said at the beginning of it. Was that ESPN or TBS? I forget. It wasn't NESN, i know that. Jackson was incredible & Hunter may be older or just plain old... But he's still Torii Hunter. 

     

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One thing i took away from the Detroit series is that their OF is way better & faster than what the   announcers said at the beginning of it. Was that ESPN or TBS? I forget. It wasn't NESN, i know that. Jackson was incredible & Hunter may be older or just plain old... But he's still Torii Hunter. 

    So much of defense is speed, quick breaks, and correct routes to the ball, especially in the OF and at SS. It's something hard to quantify with numbers and easily subjectivized through personal observations. 

    Often, it is when you play against a team that has superior defense at a particular position, that you realize maybe we are not as good as we might have thought at certain aspects of the game.

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    With Victorino hurt so much, maybe it's time for the JBJ show to hit prime time. With Ross going to the 60 day we will get a strong look at Lavarnway and I'm all for it. I bet he does well and I hope they freaking play him.

    Snyder gets a call up? That's a spare tire on the bench. A pinch hitter in national league parks.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    They'll play Lavarnway about as much as Ross. Unless his DH for papi a game.

     
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