A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We are now 5 games from the halfway point of the season. The sample sizes are growing, although some are still a bit too small to have that full feeling of legitimacy.

    Here are the current Sox numbers of all players with 60+ PAs:

     

    OBP:

    Iggy   .482 (only 114 PAs, but if he goes just 7 for his next 86, he'd still be at .300)

    Pede  .393

    Papi   .386

    Carp  .379 (about the same PAs as Iggy)

    Nava .375 (dropping some, but still getting big hits)

    Ellsb  .351 (on the rise)

    Vict   .351 (welcome back!)

    Napo .344 (could use a boost here)

    Salty .329 (dropping of late)

    Gomes .323 (on the rise- finally)

    Drew   .307 (238 PAs)

    Ross    .274  (only 75 PAs)

    Midd    .228 (8th on the team in PAs, so he has had his chances)

     

    7 guys with an OPS over .797:

    Carp 1.065, Iggy 1.061, Papi .988, Nava .824, Pedey .812, Salty .799, & Nap .797.

    2 guys still able to get near .800:

    Vict .743 & Ells .741

    2 guys able to get over .700 and maybe .750+:

    Drew .688 & Gomes .688

    1 guy lost in a downward spiral:

    Midd .617

     

    IP and ERA+

    Lester  100  94

    Demp   89  101

    Buch    84   251

    Doub   74      98

    Lack    71   142

    Acev    36     86

    Taza   33    176

    Mort   30      81

    Ueh    30    206

    Mill    27    144

    Bail   22     108

    Bres  22     149

    Wils  21     169

    Mora 10      82

     

    WHIP: 2013 (last 28 days) Red= trend good/ Blue = trend bad

    Ueh  0.867 (0.677)

    Buch 1.020 (0.857 

    Bres 1.062 (0.923)

     

    Taza 1.121 (1.200)

     

    Lack 1.206 (1.295)

    Bail   1.299 (2.125)

     

    Demp 1.354 (1.277)

    Lest   1.365  (2.024)

    Mill     1.370 (1.543)

     

    Doub  1.486 (1.141) Huge trend to the good.

     

    Wils   1.571  (1.500)

    Mort   1.582 (1.895)

    Mora  1.600 (1.600)

    Acev   1.738 (1.412)

     

     

     

     

     

    SLG:

    Carp  .686 (20 EBHs out of 34 hits!)

    Papi   .602 (rumors of "lost pop" were just dead wrong. 54 RBIs)

    Iggy   .578 (perhaps a bigger surprise than his .482 OPB.)

    Salty  .470 (less HRs/more 2Bs)

    Napo  .454 (still 2nd on the the team in RBIs with 49)

    Nava  .449 (big jump from his career average)

    Pede  .419 (only 4 HRs, but no rise in 2Bs)

    Ross  .400 (mostly his EBHs came early in the season)

    Vict   .392 (on the rise)

    Ellsb  .391 (1 HR after over 30two years ago? hmmmm)

    Midd  .389 (take away those multiple HR games... yuck!)

    Drew .381 (5th on team in PAs)

    Gomes .365 (on thhe rise)

     

     

     

    Sox4ever 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever

     

     



    I think if looked at as a snapshot in time it's even better. We didn't know how guys like Buchholz would turn out but we don't know where these guys end up either. Imagine that there are lots of guys not even on that list like Workman who would be top 5 for a lot of teams.  

     

     

     



    Workman, i thought, looked pretty good in ST. Looking at some stats, he's never had an ERA over 3.71. 65 milb games, 30 HR against, He's walking too many ( 3 AAA games, 8 BB ), and he hasnt done particularly well behind in the count. But, again i liked what i saw.

     

     

    Ht: 6' 4" Wt: 195 Bats: RThrows: R Born: 08/13/1988,Bowie, TX College: Texas

    Games   SPLITS: (CURRENT TEAM ONLY)
    SITUATION W L ERA G

    Starter 2 1 1.89 3

    vs Left -- -- 2.13 --

    vs Right -- -- 1.42 --

    Home Games 0 1 1.42 1

    Away Games 2 0 2.13 2

    Night Games 2 1 1.89 3

    On Grass 2 1 1.89 3

    June 2 1 1.89 3

    Pre All-Star 2 1 1.89 3

    Behind in Count -- -- 4.50 --

    Ahead in Count -- -- 1.08 --

    Bases Empty -- -- 2.16 --

    Runners On -- -- 1.69 --

    Scoring Position -- -- 2.84 --

    ERA   CAREER Totals W L ERA G

    AAA 2 1 1.89 3

    AA 8 2 3.57 16

    A(Adv) 7 7 3.40 20

    A(Full) 6 7 3.71 26

    Minors 23 17 3.48 65

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Maybe Workman will get a shot this year. Webster may not (this year).

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    "It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe."

     

    Someone's got it in for me, they're planting stories in the press
    Whoever it is I wish they'd cut it out quick but when they will I can only guess
    They say I shot a man named Gray and took his wife to Italy
    She inherited a million bucks and when she died it came to me
    I can't help it if I'm lucky.

    People see me all the time and they just can't remember how to act
    Their minds are filled with big ideas, images and distorted facts
    Even you yesterday you had to ask me where it was at
    I couldn't believe after all these years you didn't know even me better than that
    Sweet lady.

    Idiot wind blowing every time your move your mouth
    Blowing down the backroads heading south
    Idiot wind blowing every time you move your teeth
    You're an idiot babe
    It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe

    I ran into the fortune-teller who said beware of lightning that might strike
    I haven't known peace and quit for so long I can't remember what it's like
    There's a lone soldier on the cross smoke pouring out of a boxcar door
    You didn't know it you didn't think it could be done in the final end he won the wars
    After losing every battle.

    I woke up on the roadside daydreaming about the way things sometimes are
    Visions of your chestnut mare shoot through my head and are making me see stars
    You hurt the ones that I love best and cover up the truth with lies
    One day you'll be in the ditch, flies buzzing around your eyes
    Blood on your saddle.

    Idiot wind blowing through the flowers on your tomb
    Blowing through the curtains in your room
    Idiot wind blowing every time you move your teeth
    You're an idiot babe
    It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

    It was gravity which pulled us down and destiny which broke us apart
    You tamed the lion in my cage but it just wasn't enough to change my heart
    Now everything's a little upside down, as a matter of fact the wheels have stopped
    What's good is bad what's bad is good you'll find out when you reach the top
    You're on the bottom.I noticed at the ceremony, your corrupt ways had finally made you blind
    I can't remember your face anymore, your mouth has changed your eyes don't look 
    Into mine
    The priest wore black on the seventh day and sat stone faced while the 
    Building burned
    I waited for you on the running boards, near the cypress trees while the 
    Springtime turned
    Slowly into autumn.

    Idiot wind blowing like a circle around my skull
    From the Grand Coulee Dam to Capitol
    Idiot wind blowing every time you move you teeth
    You're an idiot babe.
    It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

    I can't feel you anymore, I can't even touch the books you've read
    Every time I crawl past your door, I been wishing I was somebody else instead
    Down the highway down the tracks down the road to ecstasy
    I followed you beneath the stars hounded by your memory
    And all you raging glory.

    I been double-crossed now for the very last time and now I'm finally free
    I kissed goodbye the howling beast on the borderline which separated you from me
    You'll never know the hurt I suffered not the pain I raise above
    And I'll never know the same about you your holiness or your kind of love
    And it makes me feel so sorry.

    Idiot wind blowing through the buttons of our coats
    Blowing through the letters that we wrote
    Idiot wind blowing through the dust upon our shelves
    We're idiots babe
    It's a wonder we can even feed ourselves.

       - Bob Dylan

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    The Rays are now in last place.  Every team in the AL East is playing better than .500.  Like I said, the AL EAst is going to get tighter. 

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It took Toronto a 10 game win streak to be tied for last place.

    The Yanks still scare me more than anyone else in the east.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Test for team character time.

    Bad call- get over it!

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    That wasnt just a bad call. That changed the whole complexion of the game. 1 out none on, to 0 outs 1 on in the 8th inning.

    I dont blame them for bringing it up, but I didnt hear anyone on that team use it as an excuse for the loss.

    Still in 1st place with some challenges ahead of them. That series very easily could be 3-1 Sox. Bailey blown game, an umpire bad call and it snowballed from there. The injuries are adding up though.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    That wasnt just a bad call. That changed the whole complexion of the game. 1 out none on, to 0 outs 1 on in the 8th inning.

    I dont blame them for bringing it up, but I didnt hear anyone on that team use it as an excuse for the loss.

    Still in 1st place with some challenges ahead of them. That series very easily could be 3-1 Sox. Bailey blown game, an umpire bad call and it snowballed from there. The injuries are adding up though.



    All teams have tons of "what ifs". I'm curious to how this team handles adversity. I think we will do fine, but this will be a test.

    Home for 2 vs COL, then 4 vs the red hot Jays (kinda wish we played them more when they were struggling), followed by 3 vs SD.  9 games we need to pay attention to and not stumble.

    To me, one of our biggest tests of the season come from July 5th to the 14th and 19th to 28th:

    3 @ LAA

    4 @ SEA

    3 @ Oak

    Allstar Break

    3 vs NYY

    4 vs TBR

    3 @ Bal

    We should know a lot more about this clb after these 20 games.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One thing i took away from the Detroit series is that their OF is way better & faster than what the   announcers said at the beginning of it. Was that ESPN or TBS? I forget. It wasn't NESN, i know that. Jackson was incredible & Hunter may be older or just plain old... But he's still Torii Hunter. 

     

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One thing i took away from the Detroit series is that their OF is way better & faster than what the   announcers said at the beginning of it. Was that ESPN or TBS? I forget. It wasn't NESN, i know that. Jackson was incredible & Hunter may be older or just plain old... But he's still Torii Hunter. 

    So much of defense is speed, quick breaks, and correct routes to the ball, especially in the OF and at SS. It's something hard to quantify with numbers and easily subjectivized through personal observations. 

    Often, it is when you play against a team that has superior defense at a particular position, that you realize maybe we are not as good as we might have thought at certain aspects of the game.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    With Victorino hurt so much, maybe it's time for the JBJ show to hit prime time. With Ross going to the 60 day we will get a strong look at Lavarnway and I'm all for it. I bet he does well and I hope they freaking play him.

    Snyder gets a call up? That's a spare tire on the bench. A pinch hitter in national league parks.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    They'll play Lavarnway about as much as Ross. Unless his DH for papi a game.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    They'll play Lavarnway about as much as Ross. Unless his DH for papi a game.



    Lava should start vs all LH'd starters. I doubt he ever DHs. I'd rather have the left over OF'er do that.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...



    Dare I say MVP of the pitching staff? He's definitely Come-back player of the year. 12 k today, ERA under 3.00. Last 3 games pitched: went 7 Inn in each of them, 2-0, but shld be 3-0 (Blown SV by Bailey), 21 k, 2 BBs, w/ a 2.57 ERA. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If he played 80% of the games from now to the end of the year, the sample size would not be large enough to be sure of anything going into 2014.

    It would be nice to have a little better idea about Lava going forward, but if Salty walks, I'm not to optimistic about our 2014 catching outlook. 2015 and beyond might be better than fine, if Vazquez and Swihart keep moving up the ranks.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     



    Dare I say MVP of the pitching staff? He's definitely Come-back player of the year. 12 k today, ERA under 3.00. Last 3 games pitched: went 7 Inn in each of them, 2-0, but shld be 3-0 (Blown SV by Bailey), 21 k, 2 BBs, w/ a 2.57 ERA. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Before tonight's game here were the team leaders in SIERA (70+ IP)

    1) Buch  3.47

    2) Lack  3.48

    3) Lest   4.02

    4) Doub 4.03

    5) Demp 4.05

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    How about that IGGY huh! Freaking ridiculous numbers. He's got to be favored for ROY at this point. As Moon was saying, he could regress a ton and still hit .300. Odds are that he ends up hitting over .300 this year and he now has exactly 2 errors with great defensive metrics. He has been a huge factor so far this year.

    What if we could slot him at SS and had a producing Carp at 1st and maybe Xander at 3rd before year end producing decent pop. At least Lackey and Buchholz as #1 pitchers going into the playoffs. I like our chances. We currently have the top offense in baseball. Life is good!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I hope we stay the course on the youth movement. It's working.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It certainly would be nice to see Lav hit to and possible play just a bit more than Ross to keep Salty fresh for the 2nd half, but in no way does it make Salty expendable.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     

     



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It certainly would be nice to see Lav hit to and possible play just a bit more than Ross to keep Salty fresh for the 2nd half, but in no way does it make Salty expendable.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, with Ross out, Salty may be one of our top 6 or 7 least expendable players.

    1) Buch

    2) Pedey

    3) Papi

    4) Lackey

    5) Iggy

    6) Nava

    7) Salty

    8) Napoli (We have Carp)

    9) Ellsbury/Victorino (We have Carp)

    10) Uehara/Tazawa

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We are at the half way point. Wow! Time flies!

    15 games over .500.

    Best record in AL.

    Ross & Hanrahan on the 60 day & Buch and Morales on the 15 day DL. Lester's hip issue.

    Team leaders:

    OBP

    .466 Iggy 

    .407 Papi

    .398 Pedey

    .372 Nava

    .371 Carp

    .356 Ells

    .353 Lava

    .349 Vic

    .344 Nap

    .326 Salty

    .320 Gomes

    .308 Drew

    .274 Ross

    .254 JBJ

    .228 Midd

     

    SLG

    .652 Carp

    .616 Papi

    .550 Iggy

    .459 Salty

    .447 Nap

    .443 Nava

    .434 Pedey

    .429 Lava

    .406 Ells

    .401 Vic

    .400 Ross

    .391 Drew

    .389 Midd

    .366 Gomes

    .269 JBJ

     

    OPS (120+ PAs)

    1.023 Carp (2nd out of 43 1Bmen/1st out of 122 OF'ers)

    1.023 Papi (1st out of all DHs)

    1.016 Iggy (2nd out of 39 SSs)

    .832  Pedey (4th out 46 2Bmen)

    .815  Nava (30th out of 122 OF'ers)

    .789  Nap (17th out of 43 1Bmen)

    .785  Salty (9th out of 37 Catchers)

    .762  Ells (52nd out of 122 OF'ers)

    .750  Vic (56th out of 122 OF'ers)

    .699  Drew (13th out of 39 SSs)

    .686  Gomes (83rd out of 122 OF'ers)

    .617  Midd (36 out of 42 3Bmen)

     

    Top Sox hitters vs RHPs (75+ PAs):

    1.184 Papi

    1.082 Carp

    .968   Iggy

    .874   Nava

    .854   Salty

    .831   Ells

    .822   Nap

    .779   Pedey

    .776   Vict

    .746   Drew

    .665   Gomes

    .591   Midd

     

    vs LHPs (40+ PAs) A weakness on this team

    1.111 Iggy

    .973   Pedey

    .765   Papi

    .728   Ross

    .713   Nap

    .704  Gomes

    .698  Vic

    .675  Midd

    .656  Nava

    .634  Ells

    .593  Drew (Should never start vs LHPs)

    .563  Salty (Should never start vs LHPs)

     

    Away  (Not as bad as recent years)

    1.126 Iggy

    1.050 Papi

    .996   Carp

    .818   Nap

    .785   Ells

    .768   Nava

    .730   Gomes

    .713   Vic

    .678   Pedey

    .668   Midd

    .632   Salty

    .578   Drew

     

    Home:

    1.052 Carp

    .998   Papi

    .995   Pedey

    .928   Salty

    .893   Iggy

    .859   Nava

    .795   Drew

    .792   Vic

    .766   Nap

    .738   Ells

    .627   Gomes

    .550   Midd

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Thanks for the numbers, moonslav.  Interesting Napoli is better against righties than lefties.  So is Carp, a lot better. 

     

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