A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    They'll play Lavarnway about as much as Ross. Unless his DH for papi a game.



    Lava should start vs all LH'd starters. I doubt he ever DHs. I'd rather have the left over OF'er do that.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...



    Dare I say MVP of the pitching staff? He's definitely Come-back player of the year. 12 k today, ERA under 3.00. Last 3 games pitched: went 7 Inn in each of them, 2-0, but shld be 3-0 (Blown SV by Bailey), 21 k, 2 BBs, w/ a 2.57 ERA. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     



    If he played 80% of the games from now to the end of the year, the sample size would not be large enough to be sure of anything going into 2014.

    It would be nice to have a little better idea about Lava going forward, but if Salty walks, I'm not to optimistic about our 2014 catching outlook. 2015 and beyond might be better than fine, if Vazquez and Swihart keep moving up the ranks.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     



    Dare I say MVP of the pitching staff? He's definitely Come-back player of the year. 12 k today, ERA under 3.00. Last 3 games pitched: went 7 Inn in each of them, 2-0, but shld be 3-0 (Blown SV by Bailey), 21 k, 2 BBs, w/ a 2.57 ERA. 

     




    Before tonight's game here were the team leaders in SIERA (70+ IP)

    1) Buch  3.47

    2) Lack  3.48

    3) Lest   4.02

    4) Doub 4.03

    5) Demp 4.05

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    How about that IGGY huh! Freaking ridiculous numbers. He's got to be favored for ROY at this point. As Moon was saying, he could regress a ton and still hit .300. Odds are that he ends up hitting over .300 this year and he now has exactly 2 errors with great defensive metrics. He has been a huge factor so far this year.

    What if we could slot him at SS and had a producing Carp at 1st and maybe Xander at 3rd before year end producing decent pop. At least Lackey and Buchholz as #1 pitchers going into the playoffs. I like our chances. We currently have the top offense in baseball. Life is good!

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I hope we stay the course on the youth movement. It's working.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     




    It certainly would be nice to see Lav hit to and possible play just a bit more than Ross to keep Salty fresh for the 2nd half, but in no way does it make Salty expendable.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    Is Lackey that missing top of rotation pitcher we have sought for years and years?

    Just sayin...

     

     



    He is certainly pitching much better than expected. Lets hope that continues. I would like to see Lavarnway split time with Salty. Lavarnway has hit the baseball at every level he has been sent to. If he can hit ML pitching with any regularity and consistency over a large enough sample size that makes Salty expendable.

     

     

     




    It certainly would be nice to see Lav hit to and possible play just a bit more than Ross to keep Salty fresh for the 2nd half, but in no way does it make Salty expendable.

     



    Yes, with Ross out, Salty may be one of our top 6 or 7 least expendable players.

    1) Buch

    2) Pedey

    3) Papi

    4) Lackey

    5) Iggy

    6) Nava

    7) Salty

    8) Napoli (We have Carp)

    9) Ellsbury/Victorino (We have Carp)

    10) Uehara/Tazawa

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We are at the half way point. Wow! Time flies!

    15 games over .500.

    Best record in AL.

    Ross & Hanrahan on the 60 day & Buch and Morales on the 15 day DL. Lester's hip issue.

    Team leaders:

    OBP

    .466 Iggy 

    .407 Papi

    .398 Pedey

    .372 Nava

    .371 Carp

    .356 Ells

    .353 Lava

    .349 Vic

    .344 Nap

    .326 Salty

    .320 Gomes

    .308 Drew

    .274 Ross

    .254 JBJ

    .228 Midd

     

    SLG

    .652 Carp

    .616 Papi

    .550 Iggy

    .459 Salty

    .447 Nap

    .443 Nava

    .434 Pedey

    .429 Lava

    .406 Ells

    .401 Vic

    .400 Ross

    .391 Drew

    .389 Midd

    .366 Gomes

    .269 JBJ

     

    OPS (120+ PAs)

    1.023 Carp (2nd out of 43 1Bmen/1st out of 122 OF'ers)

    1.023 Papi (1st out of all DHs)

    1.016 Iggy (2nd out of 39 SSs)

    .832  Pedey (4th out 46 2Bmen)

    .815  Nava (30th out of 122 OF'ers)

    .789  Nap (17th out of 43 1Bmen)

    .785  Salty (9th out of 37 Catchers)

    .762  Ells (52nd out of 122 OF'ers)

    .750  Vic (56th out of 122 OF'ers)

    .699  Drew (13th out of 39 SSs)

    .686  Gomes (83rd out of 122 OF'ers)

    .617  Midd (36 out of 42 3Bmen)

     

    Top Sox hitters vs RHPs (75+ PAs):

    1.184 Papi

    1.082 Carp

    .968   Iggy

    .874   Nava

    .854   Salty

    .831   Ells

    .822   Nap

    .779   Pedey

    .776   Vict

    .746   Drew

    .665   Gomes

    .591   Midd

     

    vs LHPs (40+ PAs) A weakness on this team

    1.111 Iggy

    .973   Pedey

    .765   Papi

    .728   Ross

    .713   Nap

    .704  Gomes

    .698  Vic

    .675  Midd

    .656  Nava

    .634  Ells

    .593  Drew (Should never start vs LHPs)

    .563  Salty (Should never start vs LHPs)

     

    Away  (Not as bad as recent years)

    1.126 Iggy

    1.050 Papi

    .996   Carp

    .818   Nap

    .785   Ells

    .768   Nava

    .730   Gomes

    .713   Vic

    .678   Pedey

    .668   Midd

    .632   Salty

    .578   Drew

     

    Home:

    1.052 Carp

    .998   Papi

    .995   Pedey

    .928   Salty

    .893   Iggy

    .859   Nava

    .795   Drew

    .792   Vic

    .766   Nap

    .738   Ells

    .627   Gomes

    .550   Midd

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Thanks for the numbers, moonslav.  Interesting Napoli is better against righties than lefties.  So is Carp, a lot better. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Let's compare the top 5 contenders:

     

    Red is top 2 and Orange is #3

     

       BOS   DET  TEX  NYY  OAK

    .771  .755   .748  .809  .836

    .781  .792   .579  .797  .674

    .811  1.108  .736  .738  .687

    1.009  .847  .841  .640  .766

    .739   .630   .818  .584  .839

    .772   .759   .744  .710  .785

    .809   .753   .833  .619  .794

    .695   .674   .668  .605  .621

     

    9 .728   .704   .755  .594  .553

     

    How about Home and Away?

                H      A (OPS)     H      A (Runs/gm)

    BOS   .828   .759           5.27  5.03

    DET   .822    .731          5.55  4.37

    TX     .776   .722           4.54  4.19

    NYY   .694   .668           3.66  4.11

    Oak   .722  .738            4.44  4.86

     

     

    How about vs lefty and righty?

           vs L  vs R (OPS)    vs L  vs R (Runs/gm vs starter)

    BOS  .710  .833              4.52  5.43

    DET   .799   .772             5.50  4.86

    TX     .715   .760             4.84  4.13

    NYY   .642   .700             3.12  4.22

    Oak   .744   .724             4.38  4.81

     

    Let's look at the median numbers (2nd number is closest to next number):

              Scored      Allowed

    BOS     5 (4)           4 (3)

    DET      4/5 (tie)     3 (4)

    TX        4 (3)           4 (3)

    NYY     4 (3)           3 (4)

    OAK    4 (5)           3/4 (tie)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:


    Thanks for the numbers, moonslav.  Interesting Napoli is better against righties than lefties.  So is Carp, a lot better. 



    Napoli usually does pretty evenly well ve LHPs and RHPs:

    Career:

    vs RHPs  .842  (2012: .861 / 2011: 1.044)

    vs LHPs  .889  (2012: .706 / 2011: 1.049)

    ___________________________________________

    As for Carp:

    Career:

    vs RHPs: .788

    vs LHPs: .789

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Tough loss today. Taz finally showed he was human.

    Top of the order has done well recently.

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Top 5 AL contenders on offense:

     

    Red is top 2 and Orange is #3

     

     OPS by batting order slot:

       BOS   DET  TEX  NYY  OAK

    .771  .755   .748  .809  .836

    .781  .792   .579  .797  .674

    .811  1.108  .736  .738  .687

    1.009  .847  .841  .640  .766

    .739   .630   .818  .584  .839

    .772   .759   .744  .710  .785

    .809   .753   .833  .619  .794

    .695   .674   .668  .605  .621 

    9 .728   .704   .755  .594  .553

     

    How about Home and Away?

              H      A (OPS)       H      A (Runs/gm)

    BOS   .828   .759           5.27  5.03

    DET   .822    .731          5.55  4.37

    TX     .776   .722           4.54  4.19

    NYY   .694   .668           3.66  4.11

    Oak   .722  .738            4.44  4.86

     

     

    How about vs lefty and righty?

           vs L  vs R (OPS)    vs L  vs R (Runs/gm vs starter)

    BOS  .710  .833              4.52  5.43

    DET   .799   .772             5.50  4.86

    TX     .715   .760             4.84  4.13

    NYY   .642   .700             3.12  4.22

    Oak   .744   .724             4.38  4.81

     

    Let's look at the median numbers (2nd number is closest to next number):

              Scored      Allowed

    BOS     5 (4)           4 (3)

    DET      4/5 (tie)     3 (4)

    TX        4 (3)           4 (3)

    NYY     4 (3)           3 (4)

    OAK    4 (5)           3/4 (tie)

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Midseason review & comparison to Spring Training predictions…

     

    Starting Pitching… I said in the spring that this would be one of the strengths of the team and it has been. Lackey has been very solid and Doubront has been better than I expected. Dempster has been a solid workhorse, as advertised. Aceves has been more than adequate as a spot starter and Webster has shown flashes of future brilliance. But the two “aces” have been the enigmas. I said in ST that Buchholz could challenge for the Cy Young and he may yet; but his inability to stay healthy is a problem. And Lester has been the most frustrating starter, alternately showing no-hit stuff and minor-league stuff. His concentration, rather than anything physical, seems to be the problem. Overall the starters earn a B+, a huge improvement over 2012.

     

    Bullpen…. As a group there have been more successes than failures. The two Japanese pitchers have been great but also overworked. Miller and Breslow and Wilson have all been more good than bad.  But Bailey and Hanrahan have been huge disappointments as has Morales. I know injuries have been a factor, but based strictly on results the group as a whole has somewhat underperformed and could use an acquisition or two to keep the team in contention. Overall grade C+.

     

    Offense…They lead the entire MLB in runs scored; that says it all. And unlike teams the last couple of years, they have not padded those stats with an occasional, meaningless offensive explosion; most of their runs have been meaningful and timely. The table-setters at the top of the order have been on base and scored runs and run the bases extremely well. Ortiz and Napoli have delivered runs in the middle. And the line-up is long because Salty, Iggy and to a lesser extent Drew have all delivered at the bottom of the order. Ortiz, Nava and Iggy have been the biggest surprises on the plus side while Drew and mostly Middlebrooks have been the biggest disappointments. Overall offensive grade A, what else for the highest scoring team in MLB!

     

    Defense… I though in the spring that this would be one of the team’s greatest strengths, and it has been. But not from the players I thought would deliver. Drew has been much better than I expected at short and Nava has been a pleasant surprise at the corner outfield positions. Napoli has been occasionally shaky and Gomes is an adventure, but otherwise they have been solid. Salty takes a lot of heat on this board but I see a guy that is catching a first-place staff and that pitchers seem to like to throw to him. Overall defensive grade B+.

     

    Bench… Much better than expected. I questioned Carp even making the team in ST and he has been great. Gomes has not hit for much of an average but he has gotten on base and delivered some of the biggest hits so far this year. Ross, before he got hurt was a perfect addition as a back-up catcher. Ciriaco failed but having Iggy back up has make him easily replaceable. Overall bench grade B-.

     

    My predictions… I said in the spring that I thought Bradley Jr. would be a key and could challenge for the batting title, if not this season then some time down the road. I also thought Middlebrooks would have a huge year as he had a great ST. So I was way off the mark on those counts. But this team has exceeded my expectations, I said they’d win more than they lose, and they are a joy to watch. Overall team grade for the first have A-.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    Midseason review & comparison to Spring Training predictions…

     

    Starting Pitching… I said in the spring that this would be one of the strengths of the team and it has been. Lackey has been very solid and Doubront has been better than I expected. Dempster has been a solid workhorse, as advertised. Aceves has been more than adequate as a spot starter and Webster has shown flashes of future brilliance. But the two “aces” have been the enigmas. I said in ST that Buchholz could challenge for the Cy Young and he may yet; but his inability to stay healthy is a problem. And Lester has been the most frustrating starter, alternately showing no-hit stuff and minor-league stuff. His concentration, rather than anything physical, seems to be the problem. Overall the starters earn a B+, a huge improvement over 2012.

     

    Bullpen…. As a group there have been more successes than failures. The two Japanese pitchers have been great but also overworked. Miller and Breslow and Wilson have all been more good than bad.  But Bailey and Hanrahan have been huge disappointments as has Morales. I know injuries have been a factor, but based strictly on results the group as a whole has somewhat underperformed and could use an acquisition or two to keep the team in contention. Overall grade C+.

     

    Offense…They lead the entire MLB in runs scored; that says it all. And unlike teams the last couple of years, they have not padded those stats with an occasional, meaningless offensive explosion; most of their runs have been meaningful and timely. The table-setters at the top of the order have been on base and scored runs and run the bases extremely well. Ortiz and Napoli have delivered runs in the middle. And the line-up is long because Salty, Iggy and to a lesser extent Drew have all delivered at the bottom of the order. Ortiz, Nava and Iggy have been the biggest surprises on the plus side while Drew and mostly Middlebrooks have been the biggest disappointments. Overall offensive grade A, what else for the highest scoring team in MLB!

     

    Defense… I though in the spring that this would be one of the team’s greatest strengths, and it has been. But not from the players I thought would deliver. Drew has been much better than I expected at short and Nava has been a pleasant surprise at the corner outfield positions. Napoli has been occasionally shaky and Gomes is an adventure, but otherwise they have been solid. Salty takes a lot of heat on this board but I see a guy that is catching a first-place staff and that pitchers seem to like to throw to him. Overall defensive grade B+.

     

    Bench… Much better than expected. I questioned Carp even making the team in ST and he has been great. Gomes has not hit for much of an average but he has gotten on base and delivered some of the biggest hits so far this year. Ross, before he got hurt was a perfect addition as a back-up catcher. Ciriaco failed but having Iggy back up has make him easily replaceable. Overall bench grade B-.

     

    My predictions… I said in the spring that I thought Bradley Jr. would be a key and could challenge for the batting title, if not this season then some time down the road. I also thought Middlebrooks would have a huge year as he had a great ST. So I was way off the mark on those counts. But this team has exceeded my expectations, I said they’d win more than they lose, and they are a joy to watch. Overall team grade for the first have A-.

     



    Great summary, jid. You have been pretty close on all of your projections. 

    My main concern was starting pitching followed by hitting vs LHPs. I stated that I did not like the odds of both Lester and Buchholz staying healthy from wire to wire AND both performing very well. I thought we needed both to even have a sliver of a chance. I did not have high hopes for Lackey, Dempster and Doubront dpoing this well.

    I thought our pen was very good to great.

    I thought our offense would be top 5 easily and probably top 3 with just little injury issues.

    I thought our defense would not be that great with Drew at SS, Naps at 1B, Gomes in LF, and Shane in untested RF at Fenway. Iggy's playing time has changed that somewhat, and Nava, Naps and Drew have played better D than I expected.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here is a list of our staff by IP and their ERAs. I highlighted in red the pitchers who should get more IP the second half than the first half. Blue means likely less or no more IP the rest of the year. (I'm assuming Buch gets healthy soon.)

    107 Lester  4.61

    95   Dempster  4.15

    85   Doubront   4.22

    84   Buchholz    1.71

    78   Lackey       2.99

    37   Tazawa      2.92

    36   Aceves       5.05

    33   Uehara       1.91

    30   Mortensen  5.34

    29   Miller          2.79

    25   Breslow      2.55

    24   Wilson        3.38

    23   Bailey         4.63

    18   Webster      9.50

    12   Morales       7.30

    7     Hanrahan    9.82

    13   Others

     

    On offense, I think it is interesting to note that looking at our list of players by most PAs, our best 3 OPS guys are in 12th (Carp), 11th (Iggy) and 5th place (Papi). Small sample size may be part of the issue, since it likely that both Iggy and Carp will come back to earth as their sample size grows, but one might wonder where they'd be at had the been near the top in PAs.

    368  Pedey    .849

    363  Ellsbury .763

    316  Napoli    .786

    308  Nava      .814

    277  Papi      1.008

    262  Drew       .722

    247  Salty       .781

    223  Victorino .752

    216  Middlebrooks .617

    170  Gomes     .694

    141  Iggy       1.000

    125  Carp       1.028

     75   Ross         .674

     59   JBJ           .523

     58  Ciriaco      .646

     17   Lavarnway .782

     

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I missed last nights BSv then Walk-off game. I looked at the box score this morning and my eyes were immediately drawn to the bottom half of the order. From Nava, Lava, Iggy, Snyder, to Diaz: 6Hits, 3 runs. Tight game, no Ortiz, bottom half did their part, won on an error but that happens. No complaints here.  

     

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:

    I missed last nights BSv then Walk-off game. I looked at the box score this morning and my eyes were immediately drawn to the bottom half of the order. From Nava, Lava, Iggy, Snyder, to Diaz: 6Hits, 3 runs. Tight game, no Ortiz, bottom half did their part, won on an error but that happens. No complaints here.  

     

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"



    It was good to get Napoli a little rest by DH'ing him. Also, good to give Nava some time at 1B. Dempster with another good start and no decision.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Lackey is now officially "the man".

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    JBJ with 2 dingers today. We have more depth than other teams. We may or may not trade for anyone but it seems to me that we are going to lose some in the rule 5 draft if we dont do at least one 2 for 1 deal. I really like our chances going forward.

    Baltimore is a problem though. They have a lot of solid young talent. I'm not worried about the Yanks. Not going to happen.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We have a lot of young relief help we could bring up and some great young starter talent. We are absolutely in a position of strength in terms of young starting pitching talent and 3rd base talent. What a valueable commodity both areas are in baseball today. A lot of teams would have already called up Webster, Rubby, Workman and Ranaudo. We may see all these guys at some point this year.

    And Cechinni is playing like he is ready for mlb already. I don't see him staying in the minors more than another year. He should move fast.

    It seems to me that Middlebrooks had that big 3 HR game and hasn't been the same since. At first maybe he was swinging for the fences too much. Now he seems to have just lost his confidence. Take the ball up the middle Will. You have pop enough to hit it out anywhere. Think Adrian Beltre. Even guys like Beltre still hit the ball up the middle a lot. Square it up! Hit it hard somewhere! Look what that approach has done for Iglesias. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Don't ever count the Yanks out. They have Grandy and Jete returning and will likely make a deal or two if they are still in at the end of the month.

    I'd be happy if we just make a couple minor deals to clear up the rule 5 and winter roster issues. Maybe a 3 for 1 deal and a 2 for 1 deal somewhere. 

    I could see an acquisition of a salary dump type player that would lessen the need for parting with good prospects.

     

    Sox4ever

     
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