Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 5/30/2013 2:44 PM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Thats all it does. It doesnt make you better unless Iggy can hit at an 800+ OPS clip. You lose a tone of offense switching Drew for Iggy. Why cant you guys see this? Im sorry, but Iggy isnt going to make that many more plays that Drew to make up for it. Also counting the erratic throws and kicked balls on occasion. Drew is solid and accurate defensively and brings a good stick.
1) We don't know if Drew will hit at .800 let alone plus. To think Iggy has to hit .800 or more to avoid us "losing a ton of offense" is absurd. Why can't you see this? Drew is likely to end up at .725-.775, which is good for a SS. Iggy is likely to end up at .625-.675, which is bad, even for SSs, especially if nearer .600 than .675. My guess is the differential would likely be about 75-100 points. That is pretty large, but if Iggy could hit .700+, I doubt anyone would say they'd rather have Drew at .750 than Iggy at .700 (except maybe you).
2) Iggy has fantastic range- probably the best in MLB. There's no argument he makes more plays. The question is how many. I find it hard to imagine it's any less than 30 over 150 games. I'd guess it's more like 45-60. Maybe he gives back 15-20 in bad throws or botched easy plays, but he's an obvious plus on defense over Drew.
Nobody will pick up gomes for that much.
Gomes is not going anywhere. He has killed lefties over the years, and that is one of our biggest weaknesses. The hope is he will regain that special skill. As bad as he has been so far, he's still better than many other starters vs LHPs. He's not the weakest link vs lefties.
Not even going to get into the salty thing. If you guys cant see why its foolish to think Lav and Ross will be better than Salty at this point, then theres no changing your minds. No stat, none, can account for the loss of 19 runs. It's absurd.
It's not about believeing we are better with Ross/Lava than Salty/Ross. It's about 2 months of Salty vs years and years of another good player. It's about projecting a common Salty late summer slump. It's about thinking Ross can handle 60-65% of the action for 2 months and maybe get more out of the staff than Salty would have. It's about Lava getting a chance to hit primarily vs LHPs, something Ross and Salty do worse against than righties.
It's about planning for the future, instead of getting nothing for Salty this winter.
You may not agree, but saying "why can't you guys see this?" is being a bit overdramatic. I can see how trading Salty might lessen our chances of winning this year, but I happen to think it would be by a slight amount, and if Salty does slump again, we might even be better with Ross & Lava for 2 months.
The guy has hit about a combined .195 the2 months of 2012 and 2011. He's playing more games now than any season of his career.
My position hasn't changed: extend him or trade him for good value.
Your right, maybe a bit dramatic on my part. But, I do understand your point. I think where we differ is the effect the catcher has on the starters, who are very comfortable with Salty and like the way he catches and calls a game. Saltys offense has improved a lot this year so whos to say he will suffer another late season fall off.
Im of the opinion that if it doesnt make us better, dont do it. Im not talking for the future either. If we are going to trade a vital piece like our starting catcher, then we have to be 100% sure we will be better at the position going forward. You admit that we will probably have a slight drop off. I say it will be more than slight. To me, thats not acceptable.
The reason Ross is a BU is 1)because of his age and 2)the fact when he gets enough AB's hes not nearly as effective. Lavarnway hasnt proved a thing to me in MLB, both offensively and especially defensively. IMO, both guys would be questionable in their new roles. Not worth taking the chance if we are in the race.
Same with SS. Although I dont think Drew will be above 800OPS by years end, I do believe he will be very close. I dont think Iggy will come close to 700 once hes given enough AB's. More like 625ish. To me, 150pt. difference in OPS is huge. Defensively, Drew has been more than solid. Naps has talked about his consistency and how accurate his throws are. he get to a lot of balls too. Not as big a difference than most thought. Estimating how many balls you think Iggy would have got to, IMO, is useless. no disrespect.
Personally, I dont think letting someone walk (possible QO?) and not recieving anything is a bad thing when the loss of production is that great. We will have to agree to disagree on this one Moon. If we have a legit chance this year Im not as concerned about getting something back for Drew and salty if it means we dont improve this year. Thats why we make moves at the deadline.
I think maybe adding another bat or a pitcher will be the most important moves. a lot can happen in 2 months, but as of right now Middy is the key here on offense. If he continues to struggle, then the Sox will have to send him down and look for a replacement. Depending on how the starters are doing and what our own prospects are doing, we might be looking on the starting pitching or bullpen market too.