A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I have no problem trading Drew either. Unfortunately we won't get much for any of them so its kind of a moot point anyway.



    Trading Drew gets you salary dump / cap flexibility.

     

    Who would pick up Gomes 10m??

     




    Thats all it does. It doesnt make you better unless Iggy can hit at an 800+ OPS clip. You lose a tone of offense switching Drew for Iggy. Why cant you guys see this? Im sorry, but Iggy isnt going to make that many more plays that Drew to make up for it. Also counting the erratic throws and kicked balls on occasion. Drew is solid and accurate defensively and brings a good stick.

     

    Nobody will pick up gomes for that much.

    Not even going to get into the salty thing. If you guys cant see why its foolish to think Lav and Ross will be better than Salty at this point, then theres no changing your minds. No stat, none, can account for the loss of 19 runs. It's absurd.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Thats all it does. It doesnt make you better unless Iggy can hit at an 800+ OPS clip. You lose a tone of offense switching Drew for Iggy. Why cant you guys see this? Im sorry, but Iggy isnt going to make that many more plays that Drew to make up for it. Also counting the erratic throws and kicked balls on occasion. Drew is solid and accurate defensively and brings a good stick.

    1) We don't know if Drew will hit at .800 let alone plus. To think Iggy has to hit .800 or more to avoid us "losing a ton of offense" is absurd. Why can't you see this? Drew is likely to end up at .725-.775, which is good for a SS. Iggy is likely to end up at .625-.675, which is bad, even for SSs, especially if nearer .600 than .675. My guess is the differential would likely be about 75-100 points. That is pretty large, but if Iggy could hit .700+, I doubt anyone would say they'd rather have Drew at .750 than Iggy at .700 (except maybe you).

    2) Iggy has fantastic range- probably the best in MLB. There's no argument he makes more plays. The question is how many. I find it hard to imagine it's any less than 30 over 150 games. I'd guess it's more like 45-60. Maybe he gives back 15-20 in bad throws or botched easy plays, but he's an obvious plus on defense over Drew.

     

    Nobody will pick up gomes for that much.

    Gomes is not going anywhere. He has killed lefties over the years, and that is one of our biggest weaknesses. The hope is he will regain that special skill. As bad as he has been so far, he's still better than many other starters vs LHPs. He's not the weakest link vs lefties.

     

    Not even going to get into the salty thing. If you guys cant see why its foolish to think Lav and Ross will be better than Salty at this point, then theres no changing your minds. No stat, none, can account for the loss of 19 runs. It's absurd.

    It's not about believeing we are better with Ross/Lava than Salty/Ross. It's about 2 months of Salty vs years and years of another good player. It's about projecting a common Salty late summer slump. It's about thinking Ross can handle 60-65% of the action for 2 months and maybe get more out of the staff than Salty would have. It's about Lava getting a chance to hit primarily vs LHPs, something Ross and Salty do worse against than righties.

    It's about planning for the future, instead of getting nothing for Salty this winter.

    You may not agree, but saying "why can't you guys see this?" is being a bit overdramatic. I can see how trading Salty might lessen our chances of winning this year, but I happen to think it would be by a slight amount, and if Salty does slump again, we might even be better with Ross & Lava for 2 months.

    Salty:

    7/12  .182/.260/.424/.685

    8/12  .205/.263/.329/.591

    9/12  .180/.301/.361/.662

    8/11  .221/.264/.485/.749

    9/11  .162/.174/.368/.542

     

    The guy has hit about a combined .195 the2 months of 2012 and 2011. He's playing more games now than any season of his career. 

     

    My position hasn't changed: extend him or trade him for good value.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Thats all it does. It doesnt make you better unless Iggy can hit at an 800+ OPS clip. You lose a tone of offense switching Drew for Iggy. Why cant you guys see this? Im sorry, but Iggy isnt going to make that many more plays that Drew to make up for it. Also counting the erratic throws and kicked balls on occasion. Drew is solid and accurate defensively and brings a good stick.

    1) We don't know if Drew will hit at .800 let alone plus. To think Iggy has to hit .800 or more to avoid us "losing a ton of offense" is absurd. Why can't you see this? Drew is likely to end up at .725-.775, which is good for a SS. Iggy is likely to end up at .625-.675, which is bad, even for SSs, especially if nearer .600 than .675. My guess is the differential would likely be about 75-100 points. That is pretty large, but if Iggy could hit .700+, I doubt anyone would say they'd rather have Drew at .750 than Iggy at .700 (except maybe you).

    2) Iggy has fantastic range- probably the best in MLB. There's no argument he makes more plays. The question is how many. I find it hard to imagine it's any less than 30 over 150 games. I'd guess it's more like 45-60. Maybe he gives back 15-20 in bad throws or botched easy plays, but he's an obvious plus on defense over Drew.

     

    Nobody will pick up gomes for that much.

    Gomes is not going anywhere. He has killed lefties over the years, and that is one of our biggest weaknesses. The hope is he will regain that special skill. As bad as he has been so far, he's still better than many other starters vs LHPs. He's not the weakest link vs lefties.

     

    Not even going to get into the salty thing. If you guys cant see why its foolish to think Lav and Ross will be better than Salty at this point, then theres no changing your minds. No stat, none, can account for the loss of 19 runs. It's absurd.

    It's not about believeing we are better with Ross/Lava than Salty/Ross. It's about 2 months of Salty vs years and years of another good player. It's about projecting a common Salty late summer slump. It's about thinking Ross can handle 60-65% of the action for 2 months and maybe get more out of the staff than Salty would have. It's about Lava getting a chance to hit primarily vs LHPs, something Ross and Salty do worse against than righties.

    It's about planning for the future, instead of getting nothing for Salty this winter.

    You may not agree, but saying "why can't you guys see this?" is being a bit overdramatic. I can see how trading Salty might lessen our chances of winning this year, but I happen to think it would be by a slight amount, and if Salty does slump again, we might even be better with Ross & Lava for 2 months.

    Salty:

    7/12  .182/.260/.424/.685

    8/12  .205/.263/.329/.591

    9/12  .180/.301/.361/.662

    8/11  .221/.264/.485/.749

    9/11  .162/.174/.368/.542

     

    The guy has hit about a combined .195 the2 months of 2012 and 2011. He's playing more games now than any season of his career. 

     

    My position hasn't changed: extend him or trade him for good value.

     




    Your right, maybe a bit dramatic on my part. But, I do understand your point. I think where we differ is the effect the catcher has on the starters, who are very comfortable with Salty and like the way he catches and calls a game. Saltys offense has improved a lot this year so whos to say he will suffer another late season fall off.

     

    Im of the opinion that if it doesnt make us better, dont do it. Im not talking for the future either. If we are going to trade a vital piece like our starting catcher, then we have to be 100% sure we will be better at the position going forward. You admit that we will probably have a slight drop off. I say it will be more than slight. To me, thats not acceptable.

    The reason Ross is a BU is 1)because of his age and 2)the fact when he gets enough AB's hes not nearly as effective. Lavarnway hasnt proved a thing to me in MLB, both offensively and especially defensively. IMO, both guys would be questionable in their new roles. Not worth taking the chance if we are in the race.

    Same with SS. Although I dont think Drew will be above 800OPS by years end, I do believe he will be very close. I dont think Iggy will come close to 700 once hes given enough AB's. More like 625ish. To me, 150pt. difference in OPS is huge. Defensively, Drew has been more than solid. Naps has talked about his consistency and how accurate his throws are. he get to a lot of balls too. Not as big a difference than most thought. Estimating how many balls you think Iggy would have got to, IMO, is useless. no disrespect.

    Personally, I dont think letting someone walk (possible QO?) and not recieving anything is a bad thing when the loss of production is that great. We will have to agree to disagree on this one Moon. If we have a legit chance this year Im not as concerned about getting something back for Drew and salty if it means we dont improve this year. Thats why we make moves at the deadline.

    I think maybe adding another bat or a pitcher will be the most important moves. a lot can happen in 2 months, but as of right now Middy is the key here on offense. If he continues to struggle, then the Sox will have to send him down and look for a replacement. Depending on how the starters are doing and what our own prospects are doing, we might be looking on the starting pitching or bullpen market too.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Well, I was sort of shocked when writing down names of people I would be willing to trade for the "right piece."  Of the fielders, I would trade anyone except Pedroia, Middlebrooks, and Ross.  Pitchers, I would trade Aceves, Doubie, and Bard.  I won't comment on minor league prospects; I don't think I know enough to say who should go.  I'm not for trading everybody,  just the select several we need.  To the right NL team, couldn't we get quite a bit back for Ells, Aceves, Bard, Drew?  Some pitching coach out there will think they can turn Bard around.  Iggy could go for Drew if he's not in the plans (not my choice).  So you give up a starting SS, CF, a long reliever/spot starter, and a short reliever.  If we want to be sellers at the deadline, seems like we've got a lot to offer.

    I like Salty but I think we would be just fine with Ross and one of the young catchers.  We've essentially got two pitching coaches, so I don't think the pitching staff will go haywire without Salty.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    ""My position hasn't changed: extend him or trade him for good value. ""'

     

     

    Granted not many if any teams have traded a starting catcher while leading the division

    However I'm still not convinced we have a shot at winning it all.

    Trading or signing him makes more sence than letting him go.  No brainer

    This decision will be made at the trade deadline like all others.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    We've got to get that next-young-big-middle-of-the-order bat.  Papi is a phenom but how much longer can we realistically count on him?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    People always overate their own prospects when looking at hypothetical trades.

    Best case scenario, if he fully reaches his ceiling Bogaerts is Stanton.   There is no way this trade happens without at least starting with a prospect like the Xman, throw in one of the top pitching prospects (Barnes/Webster/Ranaduo) and you have the beginnings of a package. 

    Personally I like the slow and steady approach.  We have a good solid core of prospects coming up, and I want to see what we have on them.  Sure some of them will fizzle and we may look back and say "we should of sold high him" but if a couple pan out then it's all worth it.

    I don't think you trade away our farm for Stanton, there is nothing wrong with Stanton as he is the ideal kinda guy to build around.  Nothing wrong with giving up a ton of talent for guy like Stanton either, just staying within is a personal preference of mine right now.  I want to build around Bogaerts and the pitching coming up.  Maybe all of Ranaudo/Barnes/Owens/Webster become above average pitchers but none are aces (very plausible scenario) well then you can go out and pay a guy $20 to anchor the rotation.  That is ok because the rest of the rotation is cost controlled.

    It's also easier to go out and overpay for a middle of the order bat when you already have a guy like Bogearts under control there.  Sure Stanton is cost controlled to, but he does hit the market much sooner than Bogaerts (clock hasn't started ticking) and he is arbitration eligible this year.   



    I'm down w/ waiting for XB, but that's taking the long way home so to speak. I was thinking more about this year, if it comes down to making a run.And sense I initially thought they'd win 20 more games this year I'm a little trigger-happy i guess. Well, in a wait 'til mid-late July sorta way. 

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    When a catcher cost his teams 19 runs as compared to an average catcher over 135 games, that is a lot of runs. That is one position alone costing us a number of games defensively as in maybe 4-5? At least. It's not good ok. It's horrible. He's already cost us at least 7 runs defensively.

    And if we can improve the team while also getting a return value for the trade I'm all for it. Again, i wouldn't give him away but history has shown that Salty generally swoons in the 2nd half. 

    I think we have a shot this year. I'm all for trading for a stud pitcher and if it costs us a few prospects I'm open to the concept but I'd rather lose some supplementary pieces like Drew and Salty, maybe a reliever and some secondary prospects and try to do a salary dump deal for someone like Cliff Lee. Of Mauer or some other salary dump option as long as the deal is for a solid player under maybe 2-3 years of control.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    My gut feeling is that Ross is not recovering well from the injury. I have no problem if we could put him on the DL, get him healthy and give Lavarnway his PT at least until he comes back. In this way we see how Lavarnway is doing.  Ideally we trade one of the catchers.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

    My gut feeling is that Ross is not recovering well from the injury. I have no problem if we could put him on the DL, get him healthy and give Lavarnway his PT at least until he comes back. In this way we see how Lavarnway is doing.    



    To me, this idea makes a lot more sense.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    What's kind of ironic for me about this whole Salty debate is that moon was instrumental in converting me into a supporter of Salty's.  I was always bringing up Salty's high CERA, and it was moon who kept pointing out that Salty's CERA had improved a lot since the first part of 2012, and also that it took Varitek several years to become a good CERA catcher.

    So now I finally want to keep Salty, and moon wants to trade him. Laughing 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I have no problem trading Drew either. Unfortunately we won't get much for any of them so its kind of a moot point anyway.



    Trading Drew gets you salary dump / cap flexibility.

     

    Who would pick up Gomes 10m??

     




    Thats all it does. It doesnt make you better unless Iggy can hit at an 800+ OPS clip. You lose a tone of offense switching Drew for Iggy. Why cant you guys see this? Im sorry, but Iggy isnt going to make that many more plays that Drew to make up for it. Also counting the erratic throws and kicked balls on occasion. Drew is solid and accurate defensively and brings a good stick.

     

    Nobody will pick up gomes for that much.

    Not even going to get into the salty thing. If you guys cant see why its foolish to think Lav and Ross will be better than Salty at this point, then theres no changing your minds. No stat, none, can account for the loss of 19 runs. It's absurd.



    Salty is actually up to a negative 21 runs cost now, after last night's game. As defined:

    Rtot -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg
    The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made.
    This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatchnumbers into a total defensive contribution.

    Link: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

    hint: They are kind of credible.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Well, we'll see what they they do, but my call is that they are not trading Salty unless the team goes down the tubes in the next two months.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Well, we'll see what they they do, but my call is that they are not trading Salty unless the team goes down the tubes in the next two months.




    I agree

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Have to call this a very positive night for Salty.  We give up 2 runs in Morales's first start of the season.  And at the plate, 2 doubles and 3 RBI. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    What's kind of ironic for me about this whole Salty debate is that moon was instrumental in converting me into a supporter of Salty's.  I was always bringing up Salty's high CERA, and it was moon who kept pointing out that Salty's CERA had improved a lot since the first part of 2012, and also that it took Varitek several years to become a good CERA catcher.

    So now I finally want to keep Salty, and moon wants to trade him. Laughing 



    Actually, I was saying the same thing all winter: extend him or trade him while his value is high. It might be even higher right now after such a nice offensive start.

    I'm OK with keeping him. I'd rather trade Drew and/or Ellsbury. As much as I have defended Salty since last May, I'm not blind to his propensity to late season slumps. And, while I do think he has improved greatly with handling our staff since 2011, I wouldn't say he is a plus in that area. 

    Compared to Lava, yes. I get the argument about handing our staff to Lava (more Ross if he gets healthy) in the midst of a pennant race.

    I seriously doubt Ben trades Salty if we are in it. I'm a 100% sure he doesn't trade Salty, Ells and Drew if we are still in it, so to me, I don't really think I'd trade Salty before Ells and Drew.

    I know it sounds like I'm riding the fence here, but it is a tough call. Of course, I'd have to know the offer before I say I'm for trading any of these guys.

    I agree with softy (from another thread), I'd trade Ellsbury for a "consenus top 100 prospect" as soon as Victorino is healthy. I'd trade Drew as soon as Middlebrooks is healthy. If none of those deals are possible, then I'd look to deal Salty. 

    I just can't bring myself to think we're going to lose all 3 after this season and get nothing but the Ellsbury draft pick to show for them.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Have to call this a very positive night for Salty.  We give up 2 runs in Morales's first start of the season.  And at the plate, 2 doubles and 3 RBI. 




    Hes on track for his best offensive season hes had in his MLB career.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Red Sox have a very tough schedule for the next three weeks (23 games).  They play the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Rays, O's and Tigers.  If Boston can go at least 14-9, then I will be happy. 

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    The Red Sox have a very tough schedule for the next three weeks (23 games).  They play the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Rays, O's and Tigers.  If Boston can go at least 14-9, then I will be happy. 

     



    I'll be happy with 12-11, especially if we win more than lose vs NYY.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    The Red Sox have a very tough schedule for the next three weeks (23 games).  They play the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Rays, O's and Tigers.  If Boston can go at least 14-9, then I will be happy. 

     


    I'll be happy with 12-11, especially if we win more than lose vs NYY.




    Good evening moonslav59   Laughing

    It will be fun to see the Red Sox face Weaver, Verlander, Moore, Darvish, and,...........geez, this is a brutal schedule.  Why can't the Red Sox face the Marlins four times like the Rays did?   LOL

     

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    No question it is unlikely that they trade any of Ellsbury, Salty or Gomes etc...and most especially Ellsbury but if we get a pick out of him I'm fine with that. You know, we are in 1st place. I don't get the continued fire sale, which is what the Ellsbury move represents. 

    We are probably a better team by keeping Ellsbury IMO but at minimum we have great depth with JBJ and Lavarnway available as injury substitutions. And I have no proiblem with them making some moves to move those guys on the 25 man if we can get some talent back.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    No question it is unlikely that they trade any of Ellsbury, Salty or Gomes etc...and most especially Ellsbury but if we get a pick out of him I'm fine with that. You know, we are in 1st place. I don't get the continued fire sale, which is what the Ellsbury move represents. 

    We are probably a better team by keeping Ellsbury IMO but at minimum we have great depth with JBJ and Lavarnway available as injury substitutions. And I have no proiblem with them making some moves to move those guys on the 25 man if we can get some talent back.



    Again, I'm not for giving Ellsbury away. If the return is not significantly better than the value of the draft pick, then I say "NO Trade!".

    We are 2 games up rounding the one third mark to the season, and we just got Morales & Bailey back. If Victorino can return and stay healthy, we may barely miss Ellsbury or Drew. We could also trade Ellsbury, Ellsbury and Drew for prospects, but then trade a couple prospects for a piece that helps us in 2013 and beyond. I'm not getting into specific trades until the end of June arrives.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon and Boom, I'm not for a fire sale either but I agree with you Moon.  It's not that I want to trade Ells, but it seems like we have JBJ ready to step in and do a lot of what Ells does if we do trade him or package him.  I just keep going back to believing this is a great group of guys to root for and a breath of fresh air, but not enough for a WS.  One more great starter that pushes a couple of guys down--as you've explained Moon--makes our whole staff better.  Maybe Morales-Doubie-Webster can be that next year, but not yet.  And we need a guy who can hit 30 dingers in the middle of the order.  Like someone else said here recently, we have lots of depth so any trades that are made, we do have people to step up.  I think it's exciting to be in this present spot, and it's pretty fair to say BC put us here with the LA trade and holding the line to some extent this winter...Moon and everyone, I know you're not ready to speculate on trades, but are there any teams out there who LINE UP WELL WITH US?  By that I mean need catching, relievers, SS, 3rd baseman, outfielders, our strengths right?  For starting pitchers, middle of the order hitters...guys on the cusp of coming into their own.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Moon and Boom, I'm not for a fire sale either but I agree with you Moon.  It's not that I want to trade Ells, but it seems like we have JBJ ready to step in and do a lot of what Ells does if we do trade him or package him.  I just keep going back to believing this is a great group of guys to root for and a breath of fresh air, but not enough for a WS.  One more great starter that pushes a couple of guys down--as you've explained Moon--makes our whole staff better.  Maybe Morales-Doubie-Webster can be that next year, but not yet.  And we need a guy who can hit 30 dingers in the middle of the order.  Like someone else said here recently, we have lots of depth so any trades that are made, we do have people to step up.  I think it's exciting to be in this present spot, and it's pretty fair to say BC put us here with the LA trade and holding the line to some extent this winter...Moon and everyone, I know you're not ready to speculate on trades, but are there any teams out there who LINE UP WELL WITH US?  By that I mean need catching, relievers, SS, 3rd baseman, outfielders, our strengths right?  For starting pitchers, middle of the order hitters...guys on the cusp of coming into their own.




    I usually start looking for trade partners around the end of June.

    There are the obvious salary dump trades like A Soriano, but I don't see that as a fit.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Big game tonight. I'm pulling for Doubront, but I'm very concerned.

     
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