A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Ok...so who are the prospects that you're going to get for Drew and Ells? And who is the pitcher that you are going to swindle from team A that is under "team control" that right now is better than Doubrant?

    I'm not getting into specific names for another month, but the theory is this:

    Trade Ellsbury, Drew and Doubront for a better pitcher than Doubront. Unless you think Drew and Ellsbury have no value (we can pay part of their contracts), then you should see the possibility, even if a 3rd team must get involved to make it happen.

    That's all I'm saying about it. Somebody might think Doubront is better than Ben thinks he is (or at least as good)

     

    You do know how valuable young pitchers under team control are don't you?

    No. I'm clueless. 

    Doubront is a headcase. The guys I wanted to go after last winter were about his age and under team control for several years, so stop with the false assumptions.

    I am against getting Cliff Lee. I have always said we need to get a solid starter who is pre-prime or just entering prime, and who is under team control for several years. I know it is not easy, but apparently you think there is no better starter than Doubront out there.

    My guess is there aren't many out there right now that a team would give up. Maybe Chris Sale, he's young and under team control. Now I'd do that...

    He's not available, but is he the only younger starter better than Doubront? Do all young starters come to camp out of shape in 2 of the last 3 seasons? Am I missing something you are seeing?

     

    The game today, due to the cost of it, is ALL about accumulating young, good, teamed control pitching. And Doubrant is one of those guys. As is Tazawa,Webster,Barnes,Ranaudo,RDLR,and others......it's pretty clear that that is the RS approach going forward. Upgrading our 5th starter who is 15-12 over the last 2 yrs and cost us chump change right now is prob not a priority for the front office IMO...

    I never siad it was. I'm also not for upgrading our 5th starter for a better 5th starter profile, unless he is under team control for as long as Doubront. I'm for trying to get a 1-2 slot starter profile, but realize we may need to settle on a solid #3 starter profile. He should be under team control for 2-3+ years, and hopefully be under 31. It may cost us a few prospects and/or involve a 3rd team to take Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty or Aceves), but I think it might be doable. I will post my specifics suggestions in July, when the picture is more clear.

     

      They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    You are clueless to think Drew will get a QO and a comp pick. 

     

     Iggy is here to stay and will be the util infielder the rest of the yr, and if Drew falters will take over.

    Drew has been faltering for 3 years: wake up and smell the coffee.

     

    It's a long yr and he ll play a lot. Same with JBJ..both will play quite a bit this yr and be ready to take SS and cf for good next yr. which is 20 mil or more saved off our payroll.

    Magically they will be ready next year, but aren't now. I gottcha.

     

    So big...Heck...Naps might even net us a comp pick.

    He might, but you don't see me talking about trading him, unless we are out of it.

     

    I don't see them throwing any real money at Salty at this point either, so I think he walks too. With him, Naps,Ells, Drew, Hanrahan and others gone next yr your looking at 40 plus  or minus to fill 2 or 3 holes. Catcher, 1b, and maybe closer. Brian McCann, if he shows his labrum is 100 percent would be my target in the offseason to solve our catching woes.

    McCann will cost 2-3 times what Salty costs for about the same results.

    We could free up all the money you suggested AND have a few players or prospects to show for losing the ones that wont get a draft pick comp.

     

    With Lava backing up waiting in the wings. 1b they ll just get a rental to buy another yr toset Boggie and Cecchini a little closer to the bigs to give them more options. They're in pretty good shape right now, both short term, and long term. 

    We are in pretty good shape, but getting complacent is not a good strategy. We need to try and improve our team, and to me it is quite clear that letting several players walk with no compensation returned, is not good baseball.

    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Then again, the same catcher caught largely the same staff last year to an ERA of around 5.

    Actually, it was 4.84 with a lousy staff, and it was about a half run less than that from 4/21/12 to the end.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Critter23's comment:

    Hey, can someone explain to me who this stud is who I saw playing 3rd for the RS last night against the Yanks?  He looks pretty buff like he's been lifting weights, he jerked out a HR, got hugged by Pedey and Papi, slapped leather all over the field and in the paper this morning I see he's hitting .430?  I haven't seem him on the roster until recently and he doesn't seem to be this Capar Milquetoast people have been pulling their hair out about on this site for two weeks, saying he'd be lucky to his scratch infield singles, couldn't hold up his weight with just his glove, hadn't earned a shot yet, blah, blah, blah.  He sort of reminds me of someone named Pedey who came up and was terrible for a month, but management stuck with him and he turned into a monster.  I'm just happy all the keening and teeth gnashing and hair pulling can stop for a while until this kid falls on his face.  Geez, if he drops all the way done to .250 should we try to dump him off on the Siberian Water Buffalos?

     



    Where are all those small sample size gurus who used to bash Iggy over tiny sample sizes?

    Why don't they count this tiny sample size and fess up?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    The one thing I disagree with, makonikyman, is that I don't think we've had 'catching woes' this year.  Offensively our catchers are above average.  Defensively, I look at our pitching numbers first.  We're now T2 in the AL in ERA.  I've said it a number of times lately but I think Salty is really arriving as a good pitcher's catcher.  Consider this, for one thing - in the last 7 games Salty has caught starts by Aceves, Morales and Doubront, and they have all been solid starts and wins.

     

     



    I'll give you that. Which is why I wouldn't trade him this yr (like some have suggested ) . The question is do you sign him to a 4/5 yr deal at 40/50 mil? Which is what he'll prob get somewhere if he continues to have a good yr. I'd rather give McCann ( assuming his labrum checks out ok ) who is only a yr older at 29 and is a career 275/25/350 obp a 5 yr deal at more money because I think he's that much more of an upgrade. Money will not be an issue next yr ( 40 mil coming off the payroll ) like I said. This team is in good shape and have set themselves up to acquire and upgrade key positions like catcher. Lots of options....

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Id have no use for McCann on a long deal because I believe Vasquez very well could be ready next year. We have more important needs, IMO, than catcher. If hes not ready, then Lavarnway can show what hes got with Ross. Vasquez (23 in 8/13) has improved GREATLY on lowering his K rate AND upping his BB rate. Although I dont think they will extend Salty either because of Vasquez, I hardly think the Sox have catching woes. Have you seen this kid play??? Hes a keeper. 50% cs rate. pitchers love throwing to him, good game caller, and has the leadership needed for the position. All that and stellar defense. almost an 800OPS in AA for a catcher is good.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    The one thing I disagree with, makonikyman, is that I don't think we've had 'catching woes' this year.  Offensively our catchers are above average.  Defensively, I look at our pitching numbers first.  We're now T2 in the AL in ERA.  I've said it a number of times lately but I think Salty is really arriving as a good pitcher's catcher.  Consider this, for one thing - in the last 7 games Salty has caught starts by Aceves, Morales and Doubront, and they have all been solid starts and wins.

     

     

     



    I'll give you that. Which is why I wouldn't trade him this yr (like some have suggested ) . The question is do you sign him to a 4/5 yr deal at 40/50 mil? Which is what he'll prob get somewhere if he continues to have a good yr. I'd rather give McCann ( assuming his labrum checks out ok ) who is only a yr older at 29 and is a career 275/25/350obp a 5 yr deal at more money because I think he's that much more of an upgrade. Money will not be an issue next yr ( 40 mil coming off the payroll ) like I said. This team is in good shape and have set themselves up to acquire and upgrade key positions like catcher. Lots of options....

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Id have no use for McCann on a long deal because I believe Vasquez very well could be ready next year. We have more important needs, IMO, than catcher. If hes not ready, then Lavarnway can show what hes got with Ross. Vasquez (23 in 8/13) has improved GREATLY on lowering his K rate AND upping his BB rate. Although I dont think they will extend Salty either because of Vasquez, I hardly think the Sox have catching woes. Have you seen this kid play??? Hes a keeper. 50% cs rate. pitchers love throwing to him, good game caller, and has the leadership needed for the position. All that and stellar defense. almost an 800OPS in AA for a catcher is good.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Haven't seen him, only heard. If he's that good the great. We can allocate the money elsewhere. I'll check on him more often. Thanks..

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Ok...so who are the prospects that you're going to get for Drew and Ells? And who is the pitcher that you are going to swindle from team A that is under "team control" that right now is better than Doubrant?

    I'm not getting into specific names for another month, but the theory is this:

    Trade Ellsbury, Drew and Doubront for a better pitcher than Doubront. Unless you think Drew and Ellsbury have no value (we can pay part of their contracts), then you should see the possibility, even if a 3rd team must get involved to make it happen.

    That's all I'm saying about it. Somebody might think Doubront is better than Ben thinks he is (or at least as good)

     

    You do know how valuable young pitchers under team control are don't you?

    No. I'm clueless. 

    Doubront is a headcase. The guys I wanted to go after last winter were about his age and under team control for several years, so stop with the false assumptions.

    I am against getting Cliff Lee. I have always said we need to get a solid starter who is pre-prime or just entering prime, and who is under team control for several years. I know it is not easy, but apparently you think there is no better starter than Doubront out there.

    My guess is there aren't many out there right now that a team would give up. Maybe Chris Sale, he's young and under team control. Now I'd do that...

    He's not available, but is he the only younger starter better than Doubront? Do all young starters come to camp out of shape in 2 of the last 3 seasons? Am I missing something you are seeing?

     

    The game today, due to the cost of it, is ALL about accumulating young, good, teamed control pitching. And Doubrant is one of those guys. As is Tazawa,Webster,Barnes,Ranaudo,RDLR,and others......it's pretty clear that that is the RS approach going forward. Upgrading our 5th starter who is 15-12 over the last 2 yrs and cost us chump change right now is prob not a priority for the front office IMO...

    I never siad it was. I'm also not for upgrading our 5th starter for a better 5th starter profile, unless he is under team control for as long as Doubront. I'm for trying to get a 1-2 slot starter profile, but realize we may need to settle on a solid #3 starter profile. He should be under team control for 2-3+ years, and hopefully be under 31. It may cost us a few prospects and/or involve a 3rd team to take Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty or Aceves), but I think it might be doable. I will post my specifics suggestions in July, when the picture is more clear.

     

      They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    You are clueless to think Drew will get a QO and a comp pick. 

     

     Iggy is here to stay and will be the util infielder the rest of the yr, and if Drew falters will take over.

    Drew has been faltering for 3 years: wake up and smell the coffee.

     

    It's a long yr and he ll play a lot. Same with JBJ..both will play quite a bit this yr and be ready to take SS and cf for good next yr. which is 20 mil or more saved off our payroll.

    Magically they will be ready next year, but aren't now. I gottcha.

     

    So big...Heck...Naps might even net us a comp pick.

    He might, but you don't see me talking about trading him, unless we are out of it.

     

    I don't see them throwing any real money at Salty at this point either, so I think he walks too. With him, Naps,Ells, Drew, Hanrahan and others gone next yr your looking at 40 plus  or minus to fill 2 or 3 holes. Catcher, 1b, and maybe closer. Brian McCann, if he shows his labrum is 100 percent would be my target in the offseason to solve our catching woes.

    McCann will cost 2-3 times what Salty costs for about the same results.

    We could free up all the money you suggested AND have a few players or prospects to show for losing the ones that wont get a draft pick comp.

     

    With Lava backing up waiting in the wings. 1b they ll just get a rental to buy another yr toset Boggie and Cecchini a little closer to the bigs to give them more options. They're in pretty good shape right now, both short term, and long term. 

    We are in pretty good shape, but getting complacent is not a good strategy. We need to try and improve our team, and to me it is quite clear that letting several players walk with no compensation returned, is not good baseball.

    Sox4ever

     



    A couple things...
    Is is so much of a stretch to think that if Drew Bats 280 with a 340+ OBP and a 780+ ops some team wouldnt want a just turned 30yr old SS on a 3-4 year deal? why would he take a QO. I think if Drew did get those numbers you would have to carefully look at every team that may be involved and all the other factors involved if you wanted to extend a QO. Thats hardly "clueless" to suggested it might happen depending on the circumstances. He never said he would get one.

     

    "Drew has been faltering for 3 years" is very misleading and Im surprised you stooped to that level. He was hurt over the past 2 years and got off to a slow start due to a concussion this year. 2011, 2012 and 2013. He hit almost 900OPS for May and Im sure his numbers will improve. "wake up and smell the coffee"? really, after you use 2 injured years and 2 months of the 3rd year? You refuse to recognize that he was becoming one of the better MLB SS before the injury. His defense, like I tried to tell people, is a LOT better than what the defensive metrics say and if you havent watched him play or talked with someone in the AZ organization, then you have no idea. Also...He'll hit. He always has. He was just on a tear since 4/22. Im sure he'll slow down a bit then go on another tear.

    I dont even want to resign Drew and cant wait to see Iggy play SS. I understand why they signed another SS and agree with the move. Its made Iggy work harder and has given him a chip on his shoulder, in a good way though. But those on here who have no clue about Drew and have never really seen him play, or uses his injury years to define him make me laugh. It does nothing for those peoples credibility.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    The one thing I disagree with, makonikyman, is that I don't think we've had 'catching woes' this year.  Offensively our catchers are above average.  Defensively, I look at our pitching numbers first.  We're now T2 in the AL in ERA.  I've said it a number of times lately but I think Salty is really arriving as a good pitcher's catcher.  Consider this, for one thing - in the last 7 games Salty has caught starts by Aceves, Morales and Doubront, and they have all been solid starts and wins.

     

     

     

     



    I'll give you that. Which is why I wouldn't trade him this yr (like some have suggested ) . The question is do you sign him to a 4/5 yr deal at 40/50 mil? Which is what he'll prob get somewhere if he continues to have a good yr. I'd rather give McCann ( assuming his labrum checks out ok ) who is only a yr older at 29 and is a career 275/25/350obp a 5 yr deal at more money because I think he's that much more of an upgrade. Money will not be an issue next yr ( 40 mil coming off the payroll ) like I said. This team is in good shape and have set themselves up to acquire and upgrade key positions like catcher. Lots of options....

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Id have no use for McCann on a long deal because I believe Vasquez very well could be ready next year. We have more important needs, IMO, than catcher. If hes not ready, then Lavarnway can show what hes got with Ross. Vasquez (23 in 8/13) has improved GREATLY on lowering his K rate AND upping his BB rate. Although I dont think they will extend Salty either because of Vasquez, I hardly think the Sox have catching woes. Have you seen this kid play??? Hes a keeper. 50% cs rate. pitchers love throwing to him, good game caller, and has the leadership needed for the position. All that and stellar defense. almost an 800OPS in AA for a catcher is good.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Haven't seen him, only heard. If he's that good the great. We can allocate the money elsewhere. I'll check on him more often. Thanks..

     

    [/QUOTE]


    yeah man..Check in on him. Hes taken big steps forward offensively this year. Strill a little work to do, but hes well on his way. Defensively, hes MLB ready.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    As of this moment, Salty has the worst dwar of all starting catchers in baseball. dwar is overall defensive value. Salty's is currently negative by the largest amount in baseball for a catcher:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA/order/false




    The team is 12 games over .500.  We are in 1st place.  Salty has caught the majority of those games.  The pitching staff as a whole is performing very well.  I've watched every game and cannot think of one where Salty's defensive play has come close to costing us a game.  I like a lot of the newer statistics out there.  He is by all accounts a good teammate and clubhouse guy who gets what it means to play in Boston.  At some point, you can take his dwar and throw it out the window.  Did I mention they are playing good baseball and are in 1st place?

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Ok...so who are the prospects that you're going to get for Drew and Ells? And who is the pitcher that you are going to swindle from team A that is under "team control" that right now is better than Doubrant?

    I'm not getting into specific names for another month, but the theory is this:

    Trade Ellsbury, Drew and Doubront for a better pitcher than Doubront. Unless you think Drew and Ellsbury have no value (we can pay part of their contracts), then you should see the possibility, even if a 3rd team must get involved to make it happen.

    That's all I'm saying about it. Somebody might think Doubront is better than Ben thinks he is (or at least as good)

     

    You do know how valuable young pitchers under team control are don't you?

    No. I'm clueless. 

    Doubront is a headcase. The guys I wanted to go after last winter were about his age and under team control for several years, so stop with the false assumptions.

    I am against getting Cliff Lee. I have always said we need to get a solid starter who is pre-prime or just entering prime, and who is under team control for several years. I know it is not easy, but apparently you think there is no better starter than Doubront out there.

    My guess is there aren't many out there right now that a team would give up. Maybe Chris Sale, he's young and under team control. Now I'd do that...

    He's not available, but is he the only younger starter better than Doubront? Do all young starters come to camp out of shape in 2 of the last 3 seasons? Am I missing something you are seeing?

     

    The game today, due to the cost of it, is ALL about accumulating young, good, teamed control pitching. And Doubrant is one of those guys. As is Tazawa,Webster,Barnes,Ranaudo,RDLR,and others......it's pretty clear that that is the RS approach going forward. Upgrading our 5th starter who is 15-12 over the last 2 yrs and cost us chump change right now is prob not a priority for the front office IMO...

    I never siad it was. I'm also not for upgrading our 5th starter for a better 5th starter profile, unless he is under team control for as long as Doubront. I'm for trying to get a 1-2 slot starter profile, but realize we may need to settle on a solid #3 starter profile. He should be under team control for 2-3+ years, and hopefully be under 31. It may cost us a few prospects and/or involve a 3rd team to take Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty or Aceves), but I think it might be doable. I will post my specifics suggestions in July, when the picture is more clear.

     

      They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    You are clueless to think Drew will get a QO and a comp pick. 

     

     Iggy is here to stay and will be the util infielder the rest of the yr, and if Drew falters will take over.

    Drew has been faltering for 3 years: wake up and smell the coffee.

     

    It's a long yr and he ll play a lot. Same with JBJ..both will play quite a bit this yr and be ready to take SS and cf for good next yr. which is 20 mil or more saved off our payroll.

    Magically they will be ready next year, but aren't now. I gottcha.

     

    So big...Heck...Naps might even net us a comp pick.

    He might, but you don't see me talking about trading him, unless we are out of it.

     

    I don't see them throwing any real money at Salty at this point either, so I think he walks too. With him, Naps,Ells, Drew, Hanrahan and others gone next yr your looking at 40 plus  or minus to fill 2 or 3 holes. Catcher, 1b, and maybe closer. Brian McCann, if he shows his labrum is 100 percent would be my target in the offseason to solve our catching woes.

    McCann will cost 2-3 times what Salty costs for about the same results.

    We could free up all the money you suggested AND have a few players or prospects to show for losing the ones that wont get a draft pick comp.

     

    With Lava backing up waiting in the wings. 1b they ll just get a rental to buy another yr toset Boggie and Cecchini a little closer to the bigs to give them more options. They're in pretty good shape right now, both short term, and long term. 

    We are in pretty good shape, but getting complacent is not a good strategy. We need to try and improve our team, and to me it is quite clear that letting several players walk with no compensation returned, is not good baseball.

    Sox4ever



    You've lost it now....to suggest that Salty....a career 240/15/300 obp and a k rate of 1 every 3.5 ab to 6 time all star McCann...280/22/350 obp are pretty much the "same results" is ludicrous. And let's not even go to the defensive side of the argument. 

    And ok...let's trade 4 starters off of our 1st place team to upgrade our 5th starter to a 3....are you on drugs? Ain't gonna happen....

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    As of this moment, Salty has the worst dwar of all starting catchers in baseball. dwar is overall defensive value. Salty's is currently negative by the largest amount in baseball for a catcher:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA/order/false

     




    The team is 12 games over .500.  We are in 1st place.  Salty has caught the majority of those games.  The pitching staff as a whole is performing very well.  I've watched every game and cannot think of one where Salty's defensive play has come close to costing us a game.  I like a lot of the newer statistics out there.  He is by all accounts a good teammate and clubhouse guy who gets what it means to play in Boston.  At some point, you can take his dwar and throw it out the window.  Did I mention they are playing good baseball and are in 1st place?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Some folks here will site any stat and rely on that stat 100% to make their decision. Also, those that never wanted him at catcher or have not liked him will use those numbers too. Unfortunately, catching is a LOT more than just numbers. A LOT. you can take your dwar to someone who cares. I see the staff pitching great, especially when they have a guy like Salty who they are comfortable with. He hasnt "lost" any games for us not matter how much some here want to suggest it. His offense has improved a lot this year. hes is not done improving and will only get better over the next few years. If the Sox dont resign him, there will be a number of teams that will be glad to pay him well for his services.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Ok...so who are the prospects that you're going to get for Drew and Ells? And who is the pitcher that you are going to swindle from team A that is under "team control" that right now is better than Doubrant?

    I'm not getting into specific names for another month, but the theory is this:

    Trade Ellsbury, Drew and Doubront for a better pitcher than Doubront. Unless you think Drew and Ellsbury have no value (we can pay part of their contracts), then you should see the possibility, even if a 3rd team must get involved to make it happen.

    That's all I'm saying about it. Somebody might think Doubront is better than Ben thinks he is (or at least as good)

     

    You do know how valuable young pitchers under team control are don't you?

    No. I'm clueless. 

    Doubront is a headcase. The guys I wanted to go after last winter were about his age and under team control for several years, so stop with the false assumptions.

    I am against getting Cliff Lee. I have always said we need to get a solid starter who is pre-prime or just entering prime, and who is under team control for several years. I know it is not easy, but apparently you think there is no better starter than Doubront out there.

    My guess is there aren't many out there right now that a team would give up. Maybe Chris Sale, he's young and under team control. Now I'd do that...

    He's not available, but is he the only younger starter better than Doubront? Do all young starters come to camp out of shape in 2 of the last 3 seasons? Am I missing something you are seeing?

     

    The game today, due to the cost of it, is ALL about accumulating young, good, teamed control pitching. And Doubrant is one of those guys. As is Tazawa,Webster,Barnes,Ranaudo,RDLR,and others......it's pretty clear that that is the RS approach going forward. Upgrading our 5th starter who is 15-12 over the last 2 yrs and cost us chump change right now is prob not a priority for the front office IMO...

    I never siad it was. I'm also not for upgrading our 5th starter for a better 5th starter profile, unless he is under team control for as long as Doubront. I'm for trying to get a 1-2 slot starter profile, but realize we may need to settle on a solid #3 starter profile. He should be under team control for 2-3+ years, and hopefully be under 31. It may cost us a few prospects and/or involve a 3rd team to take Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty or Aceves), but I think it might be doable. I will post my specifics suggestions in July, when the picture is more clear.

     

      They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    You are clueless to think Drew will get a QO and a comp pick. 

     

     Iggy is here to stay and will be the util infielder the rest of the yr, and if Drew falters will take over.

    Drew has been faltering for 3 years: wake up and smell the coffee.

     

    It's a long yr and he ll play a lot. Same with JBJ..both will play quite a bit this yr and be ready to take SS and cf for good next yr. which is 20 mil or more saved off our payroll.

    Magically they will be ready next year, but aren't now. I gottcha.

     

    So big...Heck...Naps might even net us a comp pick.

    He might, but you don't see me talking about trading him, unless we are out of it.

     

    I don't see them throwing any real money at Salty at this point either, so I think he walks too. With him, Naps,Ells, Drew, Hanrahan and others gone next yr your looking at 40 plus  or minus to fill 2 or 3 holes. Catcher, 1b, and maybe closer. Brian McCann, if he shows his labrum is 100 percent would be my target in the offseason to solve our catching woes.

    McCann will cost 2-3 times what Salty costs for about the same results.

    We could free up all the money you suggested AND have a few players or prospects to show for losing the ones that wont get a draft pick comp.

     

    With Lava backing up waiting in the wings. 1b they ll just get a rental to buy another yr toset Boggie and Cecchini a little closer to the bigs to give them more options. They're in pretty good shape right now, both short term, and long term. 

    We are in pretty good shape, but getting complacent is not a good strategy. We need to try and improve our team, and to me it is quite clear that letting several players walk with no compensation returned, is not good baseball.

    Sox4ever

     



    You've lost it now....to suggest that Salty....a career 240/15/300 obp and a k rate of 1 every 3.5 ab to 6 time all star McCann...280/22/350 obp are pretty much the "same results" is ludicrous. And let's not even go to the defensive side of the argument. 

     

    And ok...let's trade 4 starters off of our 1st place team to upgrade our 5th starter to a 3....are you on drugs? Ain't gonna happen....

    [/QUOTE]


    They are the same defensively, but McCann has been better offensively, which basically makes McCann the better of the 2.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Ok...so who are the prospects that you're going to get for Drew and Ells? And who is the pitcher that you are going to swindle from team A that is under "team control" that right now is better than Doubrant?

    I'm not getting into specific names for another month, but the theory is this:

    Trade Ellsbury, Drew and Doubront for a better pitcher than Doubront. Unless you think Drew and Ellsbury have no value (we can pay part of their contracts), then you should see the possibility, even if a 3rd team must get involved to make it happen.

    That's all I'm saying about it. Somebody might think Doubront is better than Ben thinks he is (or at least as good)

     

    You do know how valuable young pitchers under team control are don't you?

    No. I'm clueless. 

    Doubront is a headcase. The guys I wanted to go after last winter were about his age and under team control for several years, so stop with the false assumptions.

    I am against getting Cliff Lee. I have always said we need to get a solid starter who is pre-prime or just entering prime, and who is under team control for several years. I know it is not easy, but apparently you think there is no better starter than Doubront out there.

    My guess is there aren't many out there right now that a team would give up. Maybe Chris Sale, he's young and under team control. Now I'd do that...

    He's not available, but is he the only younger starter better than Doubront? Do all young starters come to camp out of shape in 2 of the last 3 seasons? Am I missing something you are seeing?

     

    The game today, due to the cost of it, is ALL about accumulating young, good, teamed control pitching. And Doubrant is one of those guys. As is Tazawa,Webster,Barnes,Ranaudo,RDLR,and others......it's pretty clear that that is the RS approach going forward. Upgrading our 5th starter who is 15-12 over the last 2 yrs and cost us chump change right now is prob not a priority for the front office IMO...

    I never siad it was. I'm also not for upgrading our 5th starter for a better 5th starter profile, unless he is under team control for as long as Doubront. I'm for trying to get a 1-2 slot starter profile, but realize we may need to settle on a solid #3 starter profile. He should be under team control for 2-3+ years, and hopefully be under 31. It may cost us a few prospects and/or involve a 3rd team to take Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty or Aceves), but I think it might be doable. I will post my specifics suggestions in July, when the picture is more clear.

     

      They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    You are clueless to think Drew will get a QO and a comp pick. 

     

     Iggy is here to stay and will be the util infielder the rest of the yr, and if Drew falters will take over.

    Drew has been faltering for 3 years: wake up and smell the coffee.

     

    It's a long yr and he ll play a lot. Same with JBJ..both will play quite a bit this yr and be ready to take SS and cf for good next yr. which is 20 mil or more saved off our payroll.

    Magically they will be ready next year, but aren't now. I gottcha.

     

    So big...Heck...Naps might even net us a comp pick.

    He might, but you don't see me talking about trading him, unless we are out of it.

     

    I don't see them throwing any real money at Salty at this point either, so I think he walks too. With him, Naps,Ells, Drew, Hanrahan and others gone next yr your looking at 40 plus  or minus to fill 2 or 3 holes. Catcher, 1b, and maybe closer. Brian McCann, if he shows his labrum is 100 percent would be my target in the offseason to solve our catching woes.

    McCann will cost 2-3 times what Salty costs for about the same results.

    We could free up all the money you suggested AND have a few players or prospects to show for losing the ones that wont get a draft pick comp.

     

    With Lava backing up waiting in the wings. 1b they ll just get a rental to buy another yr toset Boggie and Cecchini a little closer to the bigs to give them more options. They're in pretty good shape right now, both short term, and long term. 

    We are in pretty good shape, but getting complacent is not a good strategy. We need to try and improve our team, and to me it is quite clear that letting several players walk with no compensation returned, is not good baseball.

    Sox4ever



    One more thing moon before I kiss this debate goodbye...what do Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, and yes, J Ellsbury all have in common..?  

     

    They were ALL comp picks. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Ok...so who are the prospects that you're going to get for Drew and Ells? And who is the pitcher that you are going to swindle from team A that is under "team control" that right now is better than Doubrant?

    I'm not getting into specific names for another month, but the theory is this:

    Trade Ellsbury, Drew and Doubront for a better pitcher than Doubront. Unless you think Drew and Ellsbury have no value (we can pay part of their contracts), then you should see the possibility, even if a 3rd team must get involved to make it happen.

    That's all I'm saying about it. Somebody might think Doubront is better than Ben thinks he is (or at least as good)

     

    You do know how valuable young pitchers under team control are don't you?

    No. I'm clueless. 

    Doubront is a headcase. The guys I wanted to go after last winter were about his age and under team control for several years, so stop with the false assumptions.

    I am against getting Cliff Lee. I have always said we need to get a solid starter who is pre-prime or just entering prime, and who is under team control for several years. I know it is not easy, but apparently you think there is no better starter than Doubront out there.

    My guess is there aren't many out there right now that a team would give up. Maybe Chris Sale, he's young and under team control. Now I'd do that...

    He's not available, but is he the only younger starter better than Doubront? Do all young starters come to camp out of shape in 2 of the last 3 seasons? Am I missing something you are seeing?

     

    The game today, due to the cost of it, is ALL about accumulating young, good, teamed control pitching. And Doubrant is one of those guys. As is Tazawa,Webster,Barnes,Ranaudo,RDLR,and others......it's pretty clear that that is the RS approach going forward. Upgrading our 5th starter who is 15-12 over the last 2 yrs and cost us chump change right now is prob not a priority for the front office IMO...

    I never siad it was. I'm also not for upgrading our 5th starter for a better 5th starter profile, unless he is under team control for as long as Doubront. I'm for trying to get a 1-2 slot starter profile, but realize we may need to settle on a solid #3 starter profile. He should be under team control for 2-3+ years, and hopefully be under 31. It may cost us a few prospects and/or involve a 3rd team to take Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty or Aceves), but I think it might be doable. I will post my specifics suggestions in July, when the picture is more clear.

     

      They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    You are clueless to think Drew will get a QO and a comp pick. 

     

     Iggy is here to stay and will be the util infielder the rest of the yr, and if Drew falters will take over.

    Drew has been faltering for 3 years: wake up and smell the coffee.

     

    It's a long yr and he ll play a lot. Same with JBJ..both will play quite a bit this yr and be ready to take SS and cf for good next yr. which is 20 mil or more saved off our payroll.

    Magically they will be ready next year, but aren't now. I gottcha.

     

    So big...Heck...Naps might even net us a comp pick.

    He might, but you don't see me talking about trading him, unless we are out of it.

     

    I don't see them throwing any real money at Salty at this point either, so I think he walks too. With him, Naps,Ells, Drew, Hanrahan and others gone next yr your looking at 40 plus  or minus to fill 2 or 3 holes. Catcher, 1b, and maybe closer. Brian McCann, if he shows his labrum is 100 percent would be my target in the offseason to solve our catching woes.

    McCann will cost 2-3 times what Salty costs for about the same results.

    We could free up all the money you suggested AND have a few players or prospects to show for losing the ones that wont get a draft pick comp.

     

    With Lava backing up waiting in the wings. 1b they ll just get a rental to buy another yr toset Boggie and Cecchini a little closer to the bigs to give them more options. They're in pretty good shape right now, both short term, and long term. 

    We are in pretty good shape, but getting complacent is not a good strategy. We need to try and improve our team, and to me it is quite clear that letting several players walk with no compensation returned, is not good baseball.

    Sox4ever

     



    One more thing moon before I kiss this debate goodbye...what do Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, and yes, J Ellsbury all have in common..?  

     

     

    They were ALL comp picks. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Weve done VERY WELL the last few years with comp pick. The rules have changed now, so it might change how things are done now though. Have to wait and see.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    As of this moment, Salty has the worst dwar of all starting catchers in baseball. dwar is overall defensive value. Salty's is currently negative by the largest amount in baseball for a catcher:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA/order/false

     

     




    The team is 12 games over .500.  We are in 1st place.  Salty has caught the majority of those games.  The pitching staff as a whole is performing very well.  I've watched every game and cannot think of one where Salty's defensive play has come close to costing us a game.  I like a lot of the newer statistics out there.  He is by all accounts a good teammate and clubhouse guy who gets what it means to play in Boston.  At some point, you can take his dwar and throw it out the window.  Did I mention they are playing good baseball and are in 1st place?

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Some folks here will site any stat and rely on that stat 100% to make their decision. Also, those that never wanted him at catcher or have not liked him will use those numbers too. Unfortunately, catching is a LOT more than just numbers. A LOT. you can take your dwar to someone who cares. I see the staff pitching great, especially when they have a guy like Salty who they are comfortable with. He hasnt "lost" any games for us not matter how much some here want to suggest it. His offense has improved a lot this year. hes is not done improving and will only get better over the next few years. If the Sox dont resign him, there will be a number of teams that will be glad to pay him well for his services.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It really is ALL about comfort. Pitchers are creatures of habit. All these war and dwar stats are ridiculous. The bottom line is....right now, these guys like throwing to him. That's all that matters. I'm not saying AT ALL that I would extend him for 4 or 5 yrs, like somebody will. But I AM CERTAINLY NOT going to trade him this yr just to make sure I get a prospect when he walks. They're in first place. He's doing well, the staff is doing well...but oh...let's break it up and make sure we get a prospect...don't think so..

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A couple things...
    Is is so much of a stretch to think that if Drew Bats 280 with a 340+ OBP and a 780+ ops some team wouldnt want a just turned 30yr old SS on a 3-4 year deal? why would he take a QO. I think if Drew did get those numbers you would have to carefully look at every team that may be involved and all the other factors involved if you wanted to extend a QO. Thats hardly "clueless" to suggested it mighthappen depending on the circumstances. He never said he would get one.

    1) It's just as likely he hits .260/.310.

    2) He didn't "suggest" it might happen, he wrote this:

    They will keep both Drew and Ells and take the comp pick or picks for both and be happy with that ( unless someone blows them away or they lose 20 in a row and fall out of contention)

    3) There is very little chance Drew gets a QO, but I will admit it is not a zero percent chance. The statement above sounds pretty sure.

     

    "Drew has been faltering for 3 years" is very misleading and Im surprised you stooped to that level. He was hurt over the past 2 years and got off to a slow start due to a concussion this year. 2011, 2012 and 2013.

    Stooped to this level? Facts are facts. yes, he was injured, but the facts remain as they are. Besides, he was not hurt for over 350 PAs at the start of 2011... his last significant stretch of healthy playing time.

    He's had over 850 PAs since 2011. You can choose to ignore it or explain it away, but he played those games, and they count.

     

    He hit almost 900OPS for May and Im sure his numbers will improve. "wake up and smell the coffee"? really, after you use 2 injured years and 2 months of the 3rd year? You refuse to recognize that he was becoming one of the better MLB SS before the injury. His defense, like I tried to tell people, is a LOT better than what the defensive metrics say and if you havent watched him play or talked with someone in the AZ organization, then you have no idea. Also...He'll hit. He always has. He was just on a tear since 4/22. Im sure he'll slow down a bit then go on another tear.

    I hope you are right, but I just don't see what you are seeing and wishing for.

    BTW, 2011 was not "2 months", it was (count them) April, May, June, and up to July 20th. That's closer to 4 months than 3, and certainly not 2.  The managers who played him in 2012 and 2013, thought he was healthy enough to play well. 

    I have never said he is as bad as the 2011-2013 numbers show (.254/.287/.394/.681), like softy has, but I see no reason to think he will return to 2010 numbers either. I am somewhere inbetween, and you are seeing me as the extreme one here. Expecting .340 is more extreme than me expecting .320 (OBP).

    While .320 is nice for a SS who is an average fielding SS, I do think believing there is a significant chance he gets a QO iw orthy of a "small the coffee" comment.

     

    I dont even want to resign Drew and cant wait to see Iggy play SS. I understand why they signed another SS and agree with the move. Its made Iggy work harder and has given him a chip on his shoulder, in a good way though. But those on here who have no clue about Drew and have never really seen him play, or uses his injury years to define him make me laugh. It does nothing for those peoples credibility.

    I'm laughing now- out loud. 

    We know who Drew is, and he's not great. He's not even worth $9,5M, let alonea $13M offer even if after a decent 2013 season. If we make him that offer, I'll go off the deep end.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    You've lost it now....to suggest that Salty....a career 240/15/300 obp and a k rate of 1 every 3.5 ab to 6 time all star McCann...280/22/350 obp are pretty much the "same results" is ludicrous. And let's not even go to the defensive side of the argument. 

    McCann has never been known for his defense. He may rebound to form on offrense and be better than Salty. That's why I said "pretty much" the same results. I do think McCann should be slightly better over the next 3 years or so, but not by the money differential he will get.

    You roast me for not believing in Drew and Ells, but now roast me for thinking Salty will continue to improve.

     

    And ok...let's trade 4 starters off of our 1st place team to upgrade our 5th starter to a 3....are you on drugs? Ain't gonna happen....

    I'm nearly done arguing with you. I have not said I want to trade 4 starters for 1 guy. I have repeatedly said I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, but if we can't get anything good for them then think about Salty. I have suggested that if we include Doubront in a trade, we may be able to upgrade our starting staff, which, by the way is what will keep us from wiining a ring this year... the lack of a 3rd quality SP.

    I have never said it is going to happen. Never, so get off your high horse and stop misrepresenting my position. I disagree with Ben, but never pretend to know better. 

    No, I'm not on drugs, are you?

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    One more thing moon before I kiss this debate goodbye...what do Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, and yes, J Ellsbury all have in common..?  

     

     

    They were ALL comp picks. 

     

    And no prospect we can trade Drew or Ellsbury can be worth more than the value of a comp pick?

    Here are some names back at you:

    Matt Chico, Matt Murton, Abe Alvarez, Craig Hansen, Michael Bowden (is he good?), Jonathan Egan, Kris Johnson, Caleb Clay, Nick Hagadone, Ryan Dent, Bryan Price, and Stephen Fife.

    From 2001 to 2009, I count 3 good players: Ellsbury, Buch and Bard and 11 bad one, or at least yet to prove any real value at this point.

    I'd rather have a known prospect who has some professional ball under his belt than a comp pick. I'm not saying the comp pick is useless. I would not trade Ellsbury for a prospect with no better chance than a comp pick has.

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Weve done VERY WELL the last few years with comp pick. The rules have changed now, so it might change how things are done now though. Have to wait and see.

    I love our recent comp picks, and am glad we should get one for Ellsbury (and maybe another for Napoli), but I think Ellsbury has more value than a comp pick.

    If I knew we'd get another Bradley or Owens, I'd keep Jacoby, but that is not common.

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm nearly done arguing with you. I have not said I want to trade 4 starters for 1 guy. I have repeatedly said I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, but if we can't get anything good for them then think about Salty. I have suggested that if we include Doubront in a trade, we may be able to upgrade our starting staff, which, by the way is what will keep us from wiining a ring this year... the lack of a 3rd quality SP.



    As of now we do have a quality #3 in Lackey.  Teams have won it with #3's with far worse  numbers than Lackey currently has.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    It really is ALL about comfort. Pitchers are creatures of habit. All these war and dwar stats are ridiculous. The bottom line is....right now, these guys like throwing to him. That's all that matters. I'm not saying AT ALL that I would extend him for 4 or 5 yrs, like somebody will. But I AM CERTAINLY NOT going to trade him this yr just to make sure I get a prospect when he walks. They're in first place. He's doing well, the staff is doing well...but oh...let's break it up and make sure we get a prospect...don't think so..

    I wanted to and still want to extend Salty ASAP. If we plan on doing what it takes to keep him after the season ends, I don't want to trade Salty.

    That being said, I get a sneaky feeling this is Salty's last season here. If that is what Ben is thinking, then I think we should explore trading him for equal or higher value that is under team control beyond 2013. It is risky to do this if we are still in the race in July or August, but I still don't see this team as a serious World Series contender without getting another solid starting pitcher. I'm not for trading our top prospects to get one, so you have to give something to get something.

    Here's a head up. Within a couple months, most posters here will be complaining about our need for a solid SP. If it's past the deadline, then tough cookies: season over- nothing to show for all those who walk.

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I'm nearly done arguing with you. I have not said I want to trade 4 starters for 1 guy. I have repeatedly said I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, but if we can't get anything good for them then think about Salty. I have suggested that if we include Doubront in a trade, we may be able to upgrade our starting staff, which, by the way is what will keep us from wiining a ring this year... the lack of a 3rd quality SP.

     



    As of now we do have a quality #3 in Lackey.  Teams have won it with #3's with far worse  numbers than Lackey currently has.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Very true, but I would not count on Lester, Buch and Lackey to all be healthy and on top of their game the rest of the year and into the playoffs. If they are, we'd be stronger with Lackey as our #4 and Dempster as the #5.

    It always ends up being the pitching. When the playoffs come, everyone looks at the pitching match-ups not if we start JBJ or Ellsbury in CF and/or Iggy or Drew at SS.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    When Princeton or Stanford look at accepting new students they look at the data; i.e. GPA, SAT...etc. If you guys want to just accept students because they are large with curly hair that's your  choice but I prefer a more scientific approach. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.



    ...and if he goes into his normal August-September slump...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects's comment:

     

    When a guy is projected to cost his team 17 runs defensively at catcher alone, as compared to an average catcher, that is a huge data point. Assuming an opposing team with average MLB run production scores around 700 runs a year, add another 2.4% to the opposing team's run production. That's 4-5 wins there in all likelihood or the difference in many teams making the playoffs or not. 

    Salty is not a good defensive catcher and never has been ever, no matter what your eyes tell you.

     



    There are measures for a catcher's fielding, but hardly any measures for how a catcher contributes to the pitching game. 

    When I see Salty behind the plate for good performances by Aceves, Morales and Doubront in the space of a week, I think he must be doing something right. 

    I miss Harness.  He was the CERA guru. 

     

     

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