A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I wouldn't trade Drew until WMB is back. If WMB or Iggy gets hurt, we can use Ciriaco until we pick up a cheap defensive sepecialist off the scrap heep.

     

     

     

     

     



    Don't hold your breath, Moon.  Drew & Ellsbury aren't going anywhere as long as the Sox are in contention, and with that rotation, barring serious injury, this team should easily contend all season.  

     

    The Front Office was smart enough to bring in a lot of depth last off season, they certainly aren't going to turn a strength into a weakness when they are in first place.  That would make no sense at all.  This team is much better than you thought they would be.  Just enjoy the ride...

    I have said all along that I do not think Ben agrees with my position(s). Although I am for trading these two for prospects, I wouldn't be against flipping the prospects for a player that can help us contend now and into the future.

    What make you think that because I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, because their back-up are better, means I am not enjoying the ride?

    Sox4ever

     

     



    You have a case for Iggy being better than Drew. Bradley is no where near the player Ells at this point. If you had watched the games he filled in for Ells the past week you would have seen that.   He's can't hit or bunt for that matter. 

     

     

     



    I watch every play of every game, often twice.

     

    1) I thought Bradley played very well over the week.

    2) I never judge a player by a 2-3 month sample size, let alone a week.

    3) I think Bradley catches that blooper hit in front of Jacoby last night.

     



     Pulling the sample size again?  We've had two samples of Bradley this year both look the same. Bradley did not play well in either.  Perhaps you can tell me just what he did well.  I like him but he's not ready. At this point he has a better arm then Ells nothing else.

     




    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon just lost a lot of credibilty with me on this one.

    Having said that he's one of the few to admit his mistakes  Perhaps he will come to his sences later

    Living in Texas takes it's toll on the best minds 

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Looking back: Haven't lost a series since CHW. TX is the team to beat ( just did ), & compare themselves to ( 2W - 4L on the season vs TX ).

    Looking ahead: If the Sox have any chance in the Post-season, they have to have a better record than TX so they can stay out of Arlington as much as possible. Home field advantage might prove crucial. 

    Brass Tacks: If they make any deadline moves to help the team, they have to look at how they stack-up against the Rangers. Atleast thats how I see it. Yeah, it's still early. But not too early ... I'm starting to smell blood. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Starting Pitchers:

    Boston:  Buch (8-0  1.62), Lester (6-2 3.53 before tonight), Lackey (3-5 2.79), Dempster (3-6 4.39), Doubront (4-2  4.88) + Aceves & Morales/Webster

     

    NY Yanks:  Sabathia (6-4  3.74), Kuroda (6-4 2.59), Phelps (4-3 4.15), Pettitte (4-3 4.17), Hughes (2-4  5.37 before tonight) + Nova & Nuno

     

    Detroit: Verlander (7-4 3.70), Sanchez (6-5 2.65), Scherzer (7-0  3.42 before tonight), Fister (5-3 3.27), Porcello (2-3  5.21)

     

    Texas: Darvish (7-2  2.77), Holland (5-2  2,81 before tonight), Ogando (4-2 2.93), Tepesch (3-4  3.44), Grimm (5-4 5.13) + Harrison

     

    Oakland: Colon (7-2 3.14), Griffen (5-4 3.67), Milone (6-5 3.91), Parker (4-6  4.90), Straily (3-2 4.60) + Anderson (1-4 6.21)

     

     

     

    Sox4ever



    Interesting fact: Verlander NEVER started the season 2-0 in his career!!!  

    So far, Buccholz is the Cy Young winner!!!  Laughing

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I wouldn't trade Drew until WMB is back. If WMB or Iggy gets hurt, we can use Ciriaco until we pick up a cheap defensive sepecialist off the scrap heep.

     

     

     

     

     



    Don't hold your breath, Moon.  Drew & Ellsbury aren't going anywhere as long as the Sox are in contention, and with that rotation, barring serious injury, this team should easily contend all season.  

     

    The Front Office was smart enough to bring in a lot of depth last off season, they certainly aren't going to turn a strength into a weakness when they are in first place.  That would make no sense at all.  This team is much better than you thought they would be.  Just enjoy the ride...

    I have said all along that I do not think Ben agrees with my position(s). Although I am for trading these two for prospects, I wouldn't be against flipping the prospects for a player that can help us contend now and into the future.

    What make you think that because I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, because their back-up are better, means I am not enjoying the ride?

    Sox4ever

     

     



    You have a case for Iggy being better than Drew. Bradley is no where near the player Ells at this point. If you had watched the games he filled in for Ells the past week you would have seen that.   He's can't hit or bunt for that matter. 

     

     

     



    I watch every play of every game, often twice.

     

    1) I thought Bradley played very well over the week.

    2) I never judge a player by a 2-3 month sample size, let alone a week.

    3) I think Bradley catches that blooper hit in front of Jacoby last night.

     



     Pulling the sample size again?  We've had two samples of Bradley this year both look the same. Bradley did not play well in either.  Perhaps you can tell me just what he did well.  I like him but he's not ready. At this point he has a better arm then Ells nothing else.

     



    batting .250 June vs .200 in May. His OBP vs RHP is very Ellsbury-like .316

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    You might add .316 and dropping rapidly.

    Ells has a .348 vs right handers  .Posting bogus numbers??

    Ells can bunt he learned that in the minors the same place Bradley will learn very soon.

     

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    You might add .316 and dropping rapidly.

    Ells has a .348 vs right handers  .Posting bogus numbers??

    Ells can bunt he learned that in the minors the same place Bradley will learn very soon.

     

     



    Bogus #'s? Ha! Selective yes, bogus no. Ells OBP last year was .313, .265 at lead-off

    Ellsbury bunts when? Takes a Chinese new year for my man to bunt. Don't get me started on that, i wasn't gonna post all day. Wink

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    You might add .316 and dropping rapidly.

    Ells has a .348 vs right handers  .Posting bogus numbers??

    Ells can bunt he learned that in the minors the same place Bradley will learn very soon.

     

     



    Exactly...The Sox love to get young players a little time in the Majors before they're ready, and it has a lot to do with what goes on "outside the lines," so that when they are ready, there's less of a culture shock.  This experience has probably been invaluable to Bradley so far, but the Sox are a better team with a healthy Ellsbury in center, for 2013 at least.  

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I wouldn't trade Drew until WMB is back. If WMB or Iggy gets hurt, we can use Ciriaco until we pick up a cheap defensive sepecialist off the scrap heep.

     

     

     

     

     



    Don't hold your breath, Moon.  Drew & Ellsbury aren't going anywhere as long as the Sox are in contention, and with that rotation, barring serious injury, this team should easily contend all season.  

     

    The Front Office was smart enough to bring in a lot of depth last off season, they certainly aren't going to turn a strength into a weakness when they are in first place.  That would make no sense at all.  This team is much better than you thought they would be.  Just enjoy the ride...

    I have said all along that I do not think Ben agrees with my position(s). Although I am for trading these two for prospects, I wouldn't be against flipping the prospects for a player that can help us contend now and into the future.

    What make you think that because I want to trade Ellsbury and Drew, because their back-up are better, means I am not enjoying the ride?

    Sox4ever

     

     



    You have a case for Iggy being better than Drew. Bradley is no where near the player Ells at this point. If you had watched the games he filled in for Ells the past week you would have seen that.   He's can't hit or bunt for that matter. 

     

     

     



    I watch every play of every game, often twice.

     

    1) I thought Bradley played very well over the week.

    2) I never judge a player by a 2-3 month sample size, let alone a week.

    3) I think Bradley catches that blooper hit in front of Jacoby last night.

     



     Pulling the sample size again?  We've had two samples of Bradley this year both look the same. Bradley did not play well in either.  Perhaps you can tell me just what he did well.  I like him but he's not ready. At this point he has a better arm then Ells nothing else.

     



    I can pick a larger sample size out of this season and ask you what Ellsbury did well.

    How about April 1, 2012 to April 21st 2013?

    How about April 1, 2013 to May 25, 2013?

    Both way larger than JBJ's sample size.

    I won't pick those sample sizes, because they are too small, but you get my point.

    JBJ is a better fielder than Ellsbury. He gets better jumps, takes better angles, and as you pointed out has a much better arm.

     

    I guess I just have less faith in Ellsbury as you. I realize Jacoby has the potential to come close to his 2011 numbers, but I'm not holding my breath. I think some GM would take the gamble and give us something very valuable and useful. The possible drop off to JBJ would be less than the gain, or I don't make the trade. I'm not for handing Jacoby away. I am not certain JBJ will do better than Jacoby over the next 4 months. 

    Since you asked, I will tell you what I have liked (note, I am not judging on a 7 game sample size here), but I think Iggy looks more confident at the plate this time around. It's a tiny sample size, but you asked.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    Moon just lost a lot of credibilty with me on this one.

    Having said that he's one of the few to admit his mistakes  Perhaps he will come to his sences later

    Living in Texas takes it's toll on the best minds 

     

     


     
    LOL.

     

    I have been wrong many times over the years. With as many opinions and projections I have given, it's no wonder. I have admitted many mistakes, and I may be wrong here.

    What I don't get is how anyone can argue with the theory:

    1) Trade a player if you think you get better value in return.

    2) If you need to trade a player to improve a weak link on your team, choose the player that has high trade value and who has a back-up that is not as large a differential drop off as other positions on the team.

    We can certainly agree to disagree on what the differential is between Ellsbury and JBJ or Drew and Iggy, but in theory, if we improve in the area we gain via the trade by more than what we lose at the position we trade away from, how is the idea not even worthy of debate?

    Who can stand up and say I am against gaining larger here, because I don't want to lose by a lesser extent over there? The theory is sound, but the player differentials are what should be debated.

    (There are other factors involved, of course, like years of player control, salary cost, and more.)

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I like using the 162 game pro-rate numbers for comparative purposes. I know many of these players can never be expected to keep up these paces over a full season, but we tend to relate better with full season stats as a way to determine performance levels than if you say someone has 10 Hrs after a third of a season.

    Here are the Sox numbers pro-rated to 162 games:

    Iggy  .435  8  59  (102 runs & 51 2Bs)

    Ortiz .325  42  161 (11 runs and 49 2B+3Bs)

    Carp .299  19  80  (51 2B+3Bs)

    Nava .293  24  114 (30 2Bs)

    Pedey .329  10  87  (108 runs & 47 2Bs & 21 SBs)

    Napoli .270  24  126 (56 2B + 3Bs)

    Salty   .268  20  72  (55 2Bs)

    Drew  .233  17  82  (37 2B + 3Bs)

    Ellsb  .280  2  58  (94 runs, 52 2B + 3Bs & 61 SBs)

    Ross 32 HRs

    Vict  19 SBs

    Middy 28 HRs and 42 2Bs

    Lava  108 RBIs

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     




    I think he will be better offensively, but we can't know that at this time.  My point is , he is better right now. Of course that can change. He cannot sustain his current pace , and Drew certainly can improve. But right now , Iglesias is better , on offense and defense.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     



     I said his sample size is too small, BUT, if he does keep hitting this way then we could compare him to Drew. I never meant to imply he was a 400 hitter, although I can see where you might have misunderstood me. Basically, I meant if he can keep hitting the ball hard like he has, take more walks like he has, and keep his BA at a respectable number (250ish) and an OBP above 320, then we could compare them. I never said hes hitting better, but since you said that, I think He IS hitting the ball better. More lift on the ball, and squaring it up better.

     

    As far as Ells and JBJ, Ellsbury is starting to hit like weve seen before. Im not talking about the 2011 version, but the 300BA 360+OBP guy who reeks havoc on the base paths. JBJ hasnt proved ANYTHING in MLB. He still gets fooled easily at the plate and gets schooled on the inside high heat. He needs more work and I would not even think twice about choosing Ells over JBJ this year.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     

     




    I think he will be better offensively, but we can't know that at this time.  My point is , he is better right now. Of course that can change. He cannot sustain his current pace , and Drew certainly can improve. But right now , Iglesias is better , on offense and defense.

     



    A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".

    Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     



     I said his sample size is too small, BUT, if he does keep hitting this way then we could compare him to Drew. I never meant to imply he was a 400 hitter, although I can see where you might have misunderstood me. Basically, I meant if he can keep hitting the ball hard like he has, take more walks like he has, and keep his BA at a respectable number (250ish) and an OBP above 320, then we could compare them. I never said hes hitting better, but since you said that, I think He IS hitting the ball better. More lift on the ball, and squaring it up better.

    He hasn't hit the ball hard.

     

    As far as Ells and JBJ, Ellsbury is starting to hit like weve seen before. Im not talking about the 2011 version, but the 300BA 360+OBP guy who reeks havoc on the base paths. JBJ hasnt proved ANYTHING in MLB. He still gets fooled easily at the plate and gets schooled on the inside high heat. He needs more work and I would not even think twice about choosing Ells over JBJ this year.

     I do think it is likely Ellsbury keeps hitting better than JBJ for the remainder of 2013. I have not said otherwise. My position is that JBJ is a better overall fielder, and Jacoby's offense is so suspect that the drop off may not be as great as the differential on defense plus the return in trade.




     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's some interesting data:

    162 game pace on the road only:

    HRs: Papi, 59, Middy 42, Nava 33, Napoli 28, Drew 25, Ross 23, Carp 21, Iggy 16, Salty 15, Gomes 13.

    RBI:  Papi 187, Lava 162, Naps 144, Nava 135

     

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Iggy's hit log:

    1- IF

    2- Bunt

    3- IF

    4- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    5- 1B (Groundball LF)

    6- Bunt

    7- Line drive LF

    8- IF

    9- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    10- 1B (Groundball LF)

    11- IF

    12- 2B (Groundball RF)

    13- 1B (Line drive RF)

    14- 1B (Ground ball LF)

    15- IF 

    16- 2B (Line drive LF- deep)

    17- 1B (Line drive CF)

    18- 1B (Ground ball CF)

    19- 1B (Bloop LF)

    20- 1B (Line drive)

    21- HR (LF Deep)

    22- 2B (CF Deep)

    23- 1B (Line drive CF)

    24- 1B (Bloop RF)

    25- 1B (Ground ball LF)

     

    Iggy has an 18% Line Drive Rate this year.

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

       An objective , impartial look at shortstop and centerfield:   Iglesias: BA-.435--    OBP-.486----    --DREW : BA - .233  --- OBP - .332  .    While Drew has been decent defensively, Iglesias is clearly the better defender.        Ellsbury:  BA- .280 ----OBP- .346 ---------- Bradley:  BA - .154-----OBP - .254  .    Bradley clearly has the better arm.  Whether Bradley is a better overall centerfielder is debatable.    Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Stabbed by Foulke

     



    I agree (on Iggy), but not based on Iggy's bat. The sample size is too small to say he will be better offensively.

     

     

     




    I think he will be better offensively, but we can't know that at this time.  My point is , he is better right now. Of course that can change. He cannot sustain his current pace , and Drew certainly can improve. But right now , Iglesias is better , on offense and defense.

     

     

     



    A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".

     

    Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.



    That is absolutely ridiculous. " Right now " refers to current performance. If you want to be literal, " right now " is only this one second. Everything else is past or future. You are very big on numbers, except when the numbers don't agree with your personal opinion. You use the term " small sample size " when it suits your purpose. Ignore it when it doesn't. This is your thread. It is called the "realistic " thread. Well , " right now " Iglesias and Ellsbury are considerably better than Drew and Bradley. That is " realistic". That is the reality, even if it does not agree with your personal opinion. You have gained much respect on this board , but I think you lose credibility when you are so obstinate as to defend your views with statements like " A person's BA and stats are the past: not " right now". That is extremely facetious and irrelevant. I think I will refrain from posting again on the " realistic " thread , since you prefer to ignore reality and insist on pushing your views, even when all the evidence refutes them. Sorry , but you are not being very realistic. It' s fine to be opinionated, most of us are. And your opinions are no more or less valid than anyone else's.  You can have the last word, after all it is your thread.  Try to come up with something more substantial than your smarmy reply to the previous post. I won't intrude on your little ego trip of a thread again. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".

     

     

    Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.

     



    That is absolutely ridiculous. " Right now " refers to current performance. If you want to be literal, " right now " is only this one second. Everything else is past or future.

    Exactly. Why is "right now" only the past up to April 1st, 2013? Why not career? Last 2 years?  3 years?

    Yes, I admit that when people say how is a player doing (present continuous tense), the common methodology for answering is their current season's performance numbers, but in reality, the sample size is often too small to really reflect how good or bad a player really is.

    Yes, Iggy's numbers are much better than Drew's this season, but both sample sizes are extremely small, and Iggy's numbers are highly inflated by infield hits and bloopers. There is no way I would say that right now, in this instant and going forward, that Iggy is a better hitter than Drew. My guess is you would not bet that Iggy will outhit Drew for the remainder of the season, right? What would you base your answer on? My guess is the belief that Drew is a better hitter and the numbers will reflect that over a larger sample size.

     

    You are very big on numbers, except when the numbers don't agree with your personal opinion.

    This makes no sense. I am for Iggy being our starting SS. If I wanted to use his tiny sample size for my position, I'd be saying he is a better hitter and fielder than Drew.

    My position on sample size judgements has been as constant as the sun and moon. 

    You use the term " small sample size " when it suits your purpose. Ignore it when it doesn't.

    Anytime I use a small sample size to support my position, I always qualify it with a statement that "this is a small sample size, but the trend looks nice" or something like that. Show me where I have ever made a derfinitive judgement on a tiny sample size. Just one example.

    This is your thread. It is called the "realistic " thread. Well , " right now " Iglesias and Ellsbury are considerably better than Drew and Bradley. That is " realistic". That is the reality, even if it does not agree with your personal opinion.

    Again, my opinion is that Iggy is better than Drew, so please get the facts straight and be realistic.

    Going forward, I seriously doubt anyone on this thread, except softy and maybe you, would project Iggy having better offensive numbers than Drew. That is because most of us realize that Drew is a better hitter, and Iggy will come down to earth over a larger sample size. I will not lie or distort numbers to support my view that Iggy is a better overall SS than Drew. I have laid out my reasons, supported it with data of much larger sample sizes that 60 or so PAs.

     

    You have gained much respect on this board , but I think you lose credibility when you are so obstinate as to defend your views with statements like " A person's BA and stats are the past: not " right now". That is extremely facetious and irrelevant.

    We are arguing semantics. I will admit that Iggy has been a better hitter than Drew so far this year by the numbers, but 60 PAs does not make him a better hitter right now. You may call it being "obstinate", but I happen to think it is an obvious truth.

     

    I think I will refrain from posting again on the " realistic " thread , since you prefer to ignore reality and insist on pushing your views, even when all the evidence refutes them. Sorry , but you are not being very realistic.

    I think it is you who are being unrealistic in saying Iggy is a better hitter based on 60+ PAs and a large percent of his hist being seeing eye grounders, bloop hits or bunts. (Bunt hits are a skill and part of being a good hitter, but I do not think Iggy will maintain a 100% bunt for hits rate over the full season.)

    Drew is a better hitter right now. If you want to talk tiny sample sizes like Iggy's, why not look at Drew's last 70 PAs? (.847 OPS in his last 83 PAs and 1.040 in his last 43) Who is more likely to continue their pace? And, why? The answer to the second question is why I say Drew is a better hitter right now.

     

    It' s fine to be opinionated, most of us are. And your opinions are no more or less valid than anyone else's.  You can have the last word, after all it is your thread.  Try to come up with something more substantial than your smarmy reply to the previous post. I won't intrude on your little ego trip of a thread again. 

    It's my opinion. I never said your opinion less valid, but read your last sentence about credibility. It sounds rather harsh and kind of like saying my opinion is not valid, does it not?

     Conclusion : Presently  ,  the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center.  Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point. 

    Sounds very much like it is you who wants the last word. I won't assume it's about your ego, since that would be a personal assault on someone I do not know well eough to jump to conclusions about.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Theres no way JBJ is as good as Ells right now. Please. Not even close. JBJ will be a good player, but to compare him to Ellsbury right now is not even on the table for discussion. Now, If Iggy keeps hitting and continues his plate discipline, you could compare him to Drew in his overall game. But since its too small of a sample size for Iggy (only 62 AB), Ill wait a bit before I say hes the better SS.

    I disagree on nearly everything here. Iggy is not "hitting" well. This is the prime example of small sample size judgements gone wacky. Iggy may have improved over last year, but he is not even close to the hitter his tiny sample size shows, just as Ciriaco was not the hitter his 2012 numbers showed he might be.

    Conversely, Ellsbury's sample size since April1, 2012 is 583 PAs large, and you won't even put it on the table for discussion. Yes, his numbers for part of last year were injury/rehab related, but here are his numbers:

    .275/.328/.378/.706

    I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but I think one could put the chances that JBJ might reach a .706 OPS on the table. He doesn't even need to reach that, since his defense is better, but you get my point.

    My position is that even if we see a drop off in CF from Ellsbury to JBJ, the gain we get in return on trade for Ellsbury should outweigh that possible loss. If it does not: NO TRADE.

     

    Sox4ever

     



     I said his sample size is too small, BUT, if he does keep hitting this way then we could compare him to Drew. I never meant to imply he was a 400 hitter, although I can see where you might have misunderstood me. Basically, I meant if he can keep hitting the ball hard like he has, take more walks like he has, and keep his BA at a respectable number (250ish) and an OBP above 320, then we could compare them. I never said hes hitting better, but since you said that, I think He IS hitting the ball better. More lift on the ball, and squaring it up better.

    He hasn't hit the ball hard.

     

    As far as Ells and JBJ, Ellsbury is starting to hit like weve seen before. Im not talking about the 2011 version, but the 300BA 360+OBP guy who reeks havoc on the base paths. JBJ hasnt proved ANYTHING in MLB. He still gets fooled easily at the plate and gets schooled on the inside high heat. He needs more work and I would not even think twice about choosing Ells over JBJ this year.

     I do think it is likely Ellsbury keeps hitting better than JBJ for the remainder of 2013. I have not said otherwise. My position is that JBJ is a better overall fielder, and Jacoby's offense is so suspect that the drop off may not be as great as the differential on defense plus the return in trade.

     




     




    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Iggy's hit log:

    1- IF

    2- Bunt

    3- IF

    4- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    5- 1B (Groundball LF)

    6- Bunt

    7- Line drive LF

    8- IF

    9- 2B (Ground ball LF)

    10- 1B (Groundball LF)

    11- IF

    12- 2B (Groundball RF)

    13- 1B (Line drive RF)

    14- 1B (Ground ball LF)

    15- IF 

    16- 2B (Line drive LF- deep)

    17- 1B (Line drive CF)

    18- 1B (Ground ball CF)

    19- 1B (Bloop LF)

    20- 1B (Line drive)

    21- HR (LF Deep)

    22- 2B (CF Deep)

    23- 1B (Line drive CF)

    24- 1B (Bloop RF)

    25- 1B (Ground ball LF)

     

    Iggy has an 18% Line Drive Rate this year.

    Sox4ever




    which is better than his 4% he was hitting. Hes starting to square it up and hit the ball better as I said. You just proved me right. Thank you.Wink

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Not sure what your watching, but he  has most certainly hit the ball better. Hes squaring it up better. Hes got a HR and has hit more line drives as well. His ground balls arent all little squibbers that find holes. There have been a number of hard hit gounders.

    Yes, he is hitting the ball better. As you can see, 4 of his last 6 hits (before today) were hard hits, but his over all ungodly numbers are greatly influenced by the at least 7 IF or bunt hits, plus another 7 or so seeing eye grounders or bloop hits. Of course everyone gets some of those, so it's not fair taking all of Iggy's away, but he has certainly gotten more than his fair share thus far. 

    I'm not saying I'd adjust his BA to .220 or anything near that drastic, but over his first 70 PAs this year, he has not hit the ball especially hard. His LD% shows that. The game logs shgow that. His BA does not show that. And, for people to use his BA after 70 PAs as a reason to say he is a better hitter than Drew, is not what I call proper evaluation methodology.

    I'm really happy Iggy is getting hit after hit. It's got to be helping his confidence. It's keeping away his biggest critics as well.  I hope it continues. His .510 BAbip is fantastic, but very hard to sustain. As I said on another thread, even if Iggy improves his hitting, by hitting it harder more often, his numbers will still come down. He's not going to end up over .400 if his sample size gets over 350 PAs this year (probably even by the time he reaches 170 PAs).

    I'm pulling hard for Iggy, but it is his fielding that makes him the guy that should be our starting SS. His hitting is just icing on the cake.

    Sox4ever

     
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