Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II
posted at 6/8/2013 2:11 PM EDT
A person's BA and stats are the past: not "right now".
Iggy is not a better hitter than Drew right now.
That is absolutely ridiculous. " Right now " refers to current performance. If you want to be literal, " right now " is only this one second. Everything else is past or future.
Exactly. Why is "right now" only the past up to April 1st, 2013? Why not career? Last 2 years? 3 years?
Yes, I admit that when people say how is a player doing (present continuous tense), the common methodology for answering is their current season's performance numbers, but in reality, the sample size is often too small to really reflect how good or bad a player really is.
Yes, Iggy's numbers are much better than Drew's this season, but both sample sizes are extremely small, and Iggy's numbers are highly inflated by infield hits and bloopers. There is no way I would say that right now, in this instant and going forward, that Iggy is a better hitter than Drew. My guess is you would not bet that Iggy will outhit Drew for the remainder of the season, right? What would you base your answer on? My guess is the belief that Drew is a better hitter and the numbers will reflect that over a larger sample size.
You are very big on numbers, except when the numbers don't agree with your personal opinion.
This makes no sense. I am for Iggy being our starting SS. If I wanted to use his tiny sample size for my position, I'd be saying he is a better hitter and fielder than Drew.
My position on sample size judgements has been as constant as the sun and moon.
You use the term " small sample size " when it suits your purpose. Ignore it when it doesn't.
Anytime I use a small sample size to support my position, I always qualify it with a statement that "this is a small sample size, but the trend looks nice" or something like that. Show me where I have ever made a derfinitive judgement on a tiny sample size. Just one example.
This is your thread. It is called the "realistic " thread. Well , " right now " Iglesias and Ellsbury are considerably better than Drew and Bradley. That is " realistic". That is the reality, even if it does not agree with your personal opinion.
Again, my opinion is that Iggy is better than Drew, so please get the facts straight and be realistic.
Going forward, I seriously doubt anyone on this thread, except softy and maybe you, would project Iggy having better offensive numbers than Drew. That is because most of us realize that Drew is a better hitter, and Iggy will come down to earth over a larger sample size. I will not lie or distort numbers to support my view that Iggy is a better overall SS than Drew. I have laid out my reasons, supported it with data of much larger sample sizes that 60 or so PAs.
You have gained much respect on this board , but I think you lose credibility when you are so obstinate as to defend your views with statements like " A person's BA and stats are the past: not " right now". That is extremely facetious and irrelevant.
We are arguing semantics. I will admit that Iggy has been a better hitter than Drew so far this year by the numbers, but 60 PAs does not make him a better hitter right now. You may call it being "obstinate", but I happen to think it is an obvious truth.
I think I will refrain from posting again on the " realistic " thread , since you prefer to ignore reality and insist on pushing your views, even when all the evidence refutes them. Sorry , but you are not being very realistic.
I think it is you who are being unrealistic in saying Iggy is a better hitter based on 60+ PAs and a large percent of his hist being seeing eye grounders, bloop hits or bunts. (Bunt hits are a skill and part of being a good hitter, but I do not think Iggy will maintain a 100% bunt for hits rate over the full season.)
Drew is a better hitter right now. If you want to talk tiny sample sizes like Iggy's, why not look at Drew's last 70 PAs? (.847 OPS in his last 83 PAs and 1.040 in his last 43) Who is more likely to continue their pace? And, why? The answer to the second question is why I say Drew is a better hitter right now.
It' s fine to be opinionated, most of us are. And your opinions are no more or less valid than anyone else's. You can have the last word, after all it is your thread. Try to come up with something more substantial than your smarmy reply to the previous post. I won't intrude on your little ego trip of a thread again.
It's my opinion. I never said your opinion less valid, but read your last sentence about credibility. It sounds rather harsh and kind of like saying my opinion is not valid, does it not?
Conclusion : Presently , the Sox are a better team with Iglesias at short and Ellsbury in center. Now , that can certainly change as we go along , but it really cannot be credibly disputed at this point.
Sounds very much like it is you who wants the last word. I won't assume it's about your ego, since that would be a personal assault on someone I do not know well eough to jump to conclusions about.