A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Have to be really concerned w/ what we've seen from Lester the past mos. Seems if he's not getting pitches on the corners early in the game, he gets frustrated, once frustrated he loses it completely. Seems to be more mental, than physical, his stuff while not ace like anymore still good enough to be a good 2-3 guy. If he doesn't turn it around shortly may need a DL stay to clear the mind more than anything. Lets hope Webster or pssibly even Raunado are ready for some prime time work after the all star break, they may be needed! -garyhow

    I do think part of Lester's problems seem mental, but he has also lost velocity over the last couple of years. Injury-related? Perhaps.

    He was regularly over 95 mph before 2011.

    In 2011, he reached 95 or more in 15 starts and hit 94 or more in 22 times in 31 GS'd.

    In 2012, he touched 95 only 5 times and 94 or more 15 times in 33 GS'd.

    In 2013, he has touched 95 only 1 time in 14 starts and 94+ in just 7 of 14 starts.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA

     

    Sox4ever 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A quick look at 2014...

    Here's how next year's budget looks (using average contract yearly salary):

    2014

    $16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    *$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout

    $7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)

    $6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $3.1M Breslow (then FA)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub Total: ~$81.5M without Lester (9 players)and $93M with Lester (10 players).

    Arbitrations:

    Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M

    Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M

    Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M

    Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)

    Iglesias (IFA signing) made $2M > $3M (?)

    Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M

    Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M

    Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M

    Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M

    Sub Total Arb estimate: $25M (9 players)

    Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K

    Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K

    Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K

    Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.

    Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)

    TOTAL : ~ $127M (35 players with Lester) / 115M (34 players with no Lester)

    That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)

    5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.

    40 man roster total: ~$130M with Lester/ $119M without Lester

    The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander BogaertsBryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer

     

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015). 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $134M without Lester

     

    $145M with Lester

     

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Curious as to why the chose a RHP day to rest Salty. The 13 inning game?

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Curious as to why the chose a RHP day to rest Salty. The 13 inning game?

    Sox4ever



    Plus we're facing a lot of right-handed starters in a row. 

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Toronto is starting to get hot.  Their hitters and starting rotation are starting to pick it up.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks too. 

    The AL East is going to get very tight. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:


    Toronto is starting to get hot.  Their hitters and starting rotation are starting to pick it up.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks too. 

    The AL East is going to get very tight. 



    Some interesting points about our AL opponents:

    TBR: 

    1) 4 games over .500 despite 3 of their 5 SP'ers with ERAs over .491 (Hellickson 5.67, Price 5.24 & Hernandez 4.91).

    2) Rodney has 5 blown saves and a 4.94 ERA.

    3) They are 4th in the AL in runs scored, but 1 run from 3rd & 5 runs from 2nd.

    4) They are 5th in team OPS in the AL.

     

    NYY:

    1) They are 11th out of 15 AL teams in OPS (.693).

    2) They are 11th in the AL in runs scored.

    3) 4th in ERA.

    4) 4th in WHIP (1.24).

    5) Only 2 of their top 11 players in PAs have an OPS over .801 (Garner .801 & Cano .875).

    6) 7 of their top 11 PA players have an OPS below .686 (Stewart .686, Wells .659, Youk .648, Suzuki .637, Nix .613, Adams .587, & Nunez .565)

     

    Baltimore:

    1) They have 2 guys with over 100 PAs and an OPS below .583

    2) Their top IP guy has an ERA or 5.24 (Jason Hammel).

    3) They have the 7th best WHIP at 1.33.

    4) They have the 11th best ERA- at 109.

    5) They are 2nd in runs scored behind Boston.

    6) They have the league's 2nd best OPS ay .777.

     

    Toronto:

    1) 6 of their top 10 guys with an OPS below .702 and 5 below .650.

    2) 4 guys with OBPs below .268 (2 below 237)

    3) All 5 starting pitchers have an ERA above 4.90!

    4) All 5 SP'ers have a WHIP above 1.364 and 3 above 1.491!

    5) 8th best OPS at .727

    6) 9th in runs.

    7) 10th in ERA- at 108

    8) 12th in WHIP at 1.38

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sox players splits:

    vs RHPs:

    Ortiz  1.186

    Carp   1.089

    Iggy   1.036

    Salty    .927

    Nava    .914

    Napoli  .861

    Pedey  .780

    Ellsb    .771

    Drew   .715

    Vict     .708

    Ross    .670

    Midd    .592

    Gomes .520

     

    vs LHPs:

    Iggy    1.135

    Pedey 1.038

    Carp      .833

    Gomes  .770

    Ortiz     .732

    Ross     .728

    Nava    .725

    Midd    .719

    Napoli .700

    Ellsb   .669

    Drew .627

    Vict     .619

    Salty  .575 

     

    Home:

    Carp   1.100

    Salty   1.026

    Pedey  1.010

    Iggy       .977

    Ortiz      .957

    Nava     .872

    Drew    .796

    Napoli  .783

    Vict      .730

    Ellsb    .691

    Ross    .646

    Midd    .560

    Gomes .557

     

    Away:

    Iggy   1.167

    Ortiz  1.057

    Carp     .998

    Nava    .847

    Napoli .847

    Ross    .783

    Ellsb    .777

    Gomes .758

    Pedey  .704

    Midd     .689

    Salty    .656

    Vict      .645

    Drew   .550

    Ciriaco .411 (He's going to miss Fenway .912.)

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Big win today. Carp is really looking like the real deal.

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Big win today. Carp is really looking like the real deal.

    Sox4ever




    Good morning moonslav59    :)

    I agree with you--Carp is really looking like the real deal.  Thank you Seattle.   LOL

    Speaking of the real deal, I am starting to believe that the Blue Jays are going to inch closer to the AL East race.  They have the 3rd best winning percentage (.591) since May 11.  Buehrle has an ERA of 2.54 during his last seven outings.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks. 

    Once they get back to .500 (six games under), all they need is a hot streak and they will be striking distance of first place.

     

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Big win today. Carp is really looking like the real deal.

    Sox4ever

     




    Good morning moonslav59    :)

     

    I agree with you--Carp is really looking like the real deal.  Thank you Seattle.   LOL

    Speaking of the real deal, I am starting to believe that the Blue Jays are going to inch closer to the AL East race.  They have the 3rd best winning percentage (.591) since May 11.  Buehrle has an ERA of 2.54 during his last seven outings.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks. 

    Once they get back to .500 (six games under), all they need is a hot streak and they will be striking distance of first place.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Baltimore is looking tough as well, and as always, I never believe that TB "will fade away in the dogdays of summer" (although possibly losing Cobb will hurt).

    The thing about the Jays that jumps out at me is this:

     

    Starter ERAs:

    Buehrle  4.66

    Dickey   4.90

    Happ      4.91

    Johnson 5.40

    Morrow  5.63

     

    4 weak offensive positions:

    C: .655

    3b: .661

    SS: .687 (will improve if reyes returns and stays healthy... big if)

    LF: .699

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    Toronto's starting rotation has been a disappointment so far.  Their former ace (Romero) is still in AAA and they picked up former Yankee, Chien-Ming Wang who got the win tonight vs. the Rangers.

    Tampa Bay's starting rotation has been struggling too.  I am surprised with their strong offense so far. 

    The AL East is going to get more tight as the season goes on. 

     

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Wil Myers Tuesday in Boston!




    Hello BurritoT  Laughing

    The Royals gave up a very good prospect (Myers) for Shields. 

    The Angels have Trout, the O's have Machado, the Red Sox have Iggy (and Nava) and let's see if Myers will be the next star.  

     

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Wil Myers Tuesday in Boston!

     




    Hello BurritoT  Laughing

     

    The Royals gave up a very good prospect (Myers) for Shields. 

    The Angels have Trout, the O's have Machado, the Red Sox have Iggy (and Nava) and let's see if Myers will be the next star.  

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The Royals also got Wade Davis in the deal, and the Rays got some other nice prospects besides Myers:

    Mike Montgomery (Rated #8 now in TB)

    Patrick Leonard (Rated #20 in TB)

    Jake Odorizzi (Rated the Rays #3 prospect now)

     

    I think KC would have taken Lester straight up for just Myers. Those other 3 prospects are good... better than Wade Davis good.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon: I appreciate your previous payroll / luxury cap analysis, but could you spell it out for me as to how much the Sox have left for 2014 with / without Lester? Assume nothing is obvioius. Thanks.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Moon: I appreciate your previous payroll / luxury cap analysis, but could you spell it out for me as to how much the Sox have left for 2014 with / without Lester? Assume nothing is obvioius. Thanks.



    $134M without Lester

     

    $145M with Lester

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

    The luxury tax limit next year is $189M.

     

    That leaves us $55M to spend without Lester.

     

    That leaves us with $44M to spend with Lester.

     

    We will have some gaps to fill in...

    C ________  Ross. lava, vazquez

    1B _______ Carp, Papi DH), Almanzar, Shaw

    2B Pedey, Holt, Coyle

    3B Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Cecchini

    SS Iglesias, marrero, Lin, Vinicio

    LF Nava, Gomes

    CF ______  Bradley

    RF Victorino, Brentz

    SP Buch, _____ or Lester, Lackey, Dempster, _______ or Doubront

           Aceves, Webster, de la Rosa. Ranaudo, Britton, Owens...

    RP Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, ______, Miller, Mortensen, de la Torre, Wilson, ....

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon: Thanks.

    I went to Cots contracts  and I'm having trouble sorting some stuff out.

    How long is Vazquez under team control? For some reason I haven't found the right page for the answer either there or at Baseball-Reference.

    Ross is signed thru 2014; Lavarnway thru 2018; Middlebrooks 2018, etc.

    So I'm a bit confused that some of these names show up on the list of holes to fill.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Moon: Thanks.

    I went to Cots contracts  and I'm having trouble sorting some stuff out.

    How long is Vazquez under team control? For some reason I haven't found the right page for the answer either there or at Baseball-Reference.

    Ross is signed thru 2014; Lavarnway thru 2018; Middlebrooks 2018, etc.

    So I'm a bit confused that some of these names show up on the list of holes to fill.




    Vasquez hasnt even started his MLB clock yet, so he'll have 6 years once he comes up. So lets say he starts next year. He wouldbr become a FA until after the 2019 season. after 2020 if he doesnt start until 2015. He was an International FA, so Im not so sure all the smae rules apply, but hes here for a while.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Soxprospects has Vasquez on the 40 man roster already, so I thought that meant something.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

    I guess the blank lines in this graph have something to do with players that have options remaining ...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Soxprospects has Vasquez on the 40 man roster already, so I thought that meant something.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

    I guess the blank lines in this graph have something to do with players that have options remaining ...



    I'm not an expert on this, but I do not think the clock starts until the player reaches MLB, so I think Vazquez has 6 years from the year he makes it to MLB. I also think a September call-up does not count as starting the clock.

    Maybe someone else knows more.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here is our upcoming schedule (to the trade deadline):

    3 TB

    4 @ Det

    2 Col

    4 Tor

    3 SD

    3 @ LAA

    4 @ Sea

    3 @ Oak

      AS Break

    3 NYY

    4 TBR

    3 @ Bal

    2 Sea

    Trade deadline

    1 more vs Sea, 3 AZ then a 10 game road trip (Hou, KC, Tor)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sox splits:

    vs RHPs:

    Ortiz 1.138

    Carp  1.112

    Iggy   .998

    Salty   .913

    Nava  .894

    Naps  .861

    Pede .763

    Ells    .762

    Drew .717

    Vict   .698

    Ross .603

    Midd  .598

    Gom  .582

     

    vs LHPs

    Iggy  1.139

    Pede 1.025

    Carp    .779

    Gomes .760

    Ross    .728

    Midd   .719

    Nava  .714

    Ortiz  .714

    Naps  .700

    Ells    .656

    Vict   .644 

    Drew .598

    Salty .552

     

    Looking at these numbers and past trends for some of these players, it seems pretty clear that... (For the most part, Farrell has followed most of these guidlines.)

    1) Salty should start all games vs RHPs (.913>.603) and Ross vs LHPs (.728> .552).

    2) Drew should not start vs LHPs (.598), since both Iggy (1.139) and Middy (.719) are way better.

    3) Gomes should not start vs RHPs (.582) and to some extent neither should Victorino (.698).

    4) While nava is doing better than Victorino vs LHPs so far this year, Shane has been one of the leagues best hitters vs lefties in recent years, so I would expect SV and Gomes to play instead of Nava soon. (Ellsbury vs LHPs needs to be monitored as well.)

    5) Napoli is struggling vs LHPs, but he usually does very well vs them.

    6) Papi hit lefties really well last year and to start this year, but he had shown issues vs LHPs for over 2 years prior to 2012. His current .714 mark vs LHPs is very worrisome. 

     

    Home:

    Carp  1.100

    Salty 1.026

    Pede 1.010

    Iggy    .977

    Ortiz   .957

    Nava  .872

    Drew  .796

    Naps  .783

    Vict   .730

    Ells   .691

    Ross .646

    Midd .560

    Gomes .557

     

    Away:

    Iggy  1.101

    Carp  1.031

    Ortiz   .987

    Naps   .847

    Nava  .814

    Gomes .775

    Ells    .754

    Ross  .704

    Midd  .691

    Pede .680

    Vict  .646

    Salty .637

    Drew .542

     

    Note: Salty should think long and hard about signing some where else.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!



    True, but his road numbers kill us at times. I'd like more balance, but Salty is probably best suited for the Sox.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here are the positional splits of Sox players since 2011 and their rankings (700+ PAs unless otherwise noted):

    Vs RHPs:

     

    Catcher (500+ PAs 28):

    8) Salty    .807

     

    1st Base (34):

    4) Napoli  .931

     

    2nd Base (26):

    8) Pedroia  .784

     

    3rd Base (300+ PAs 62):

    29) Middlebrooks .711

     

    Short Stop (110+ PAs 82):

    15) Drew   .715 (12th among 28 SSs with 600+ PAs)

    19) Iggy    .696

     

    Outfield (400+ PAs 137):

    15) Ellsbury  .860  (13th out of 77 with 700+ PAs)

    23) Nava       .842

    45) Carp        .797

    94) Victorino .705 (65th out of 77 with 700+ PAs)

     

    Vs LHPs (300+ PAs unless otherwise noted):

     

    Catcher (180+ PAs 34):

    23) D Ross   .686

    32) Salty      .582 (only 2 MLB catchers are worse: Mathis & Hundley)

    122) Gomes  .661

     

    1st Base (29):

    15) Napoli    .836

     

    2nd Base (29):

    1) Pedroia    .951 (63 points ahead of #2 Kinsler)

     

    Third Base (160+ PAs 52):

    16) Middlebrooks   .832

     

    Short Stop (60+ PAs 77):

    4) Iggy     .868

    56) Drew  .612 (27th out of 29 with 250+ PAs)

     

    Outfield (75):

    9) Victorino  .910

    11) Gomes   .897 (C. Ross is .895)

    51) Ellsbury .745

    ** Nava 108th out of 115 with 200+ PAs: .655

    ** Carp 46th out of 137 with 150+ PAs: .800

    Sox4ever

     
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