A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    Interesting facts   Laughing

    • Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera have driven in three or more runs nine times this season.  
    • Iglesias is batting .446 in 74 at-bats
    • The Red Sox enter tonight with 40 wins through 65 games.  Its the quickest to 40 wins since 2007 (done in only 61 games)
    • Lester is 5-1 with a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts at Tropicana Field
    • The new chicken sandwich from Dunkin Donuts has 670 calories    LOL

     

     

     



    How about his?

     

     

    Nava leads the majors in RBI after the 7tth inning.

    Not bad for a "back-up".

     

    [/QUOTE]

    LA Angels:  "Damn, and we are stuck with Hamilton for another four years."   

     

    LOL

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The only big named FA this past winter worth a look was A Sanchez. I'm glad we didn't go near the big 2: Greinke & Hamilton. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    After his hateful rant on a couple threads the last 2 days, he has had about 6 different aliases banned over the last 48 HRS. I gues you could say he in a "slump"Tongue Out

     

    It must be so frustrating to not only be wrong all of the time- and I mean ALLLLlll of the time, but to be so far off on every single position known to mankind has got  to be debilitating.

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Aceves vs Archer tonight. Could be a high scoring game.

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I still think they're shopping Aceves.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    As much as I am NOT a fan of Aceves, he is somewhat essential to this team as he fiils the role of sixth starter and he has options left that gives the team huge roster flexibility. I don't think he has a future here beyond this season, and maybe even beyond us obtaining someone else, but Farrell and Ben are using him brilliantly right now. And as long as he delivers like he did in his last start, his value is off the charts.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I still think they're shopping Aceves.

     




    Yep 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I second that, or third that.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    So much for the high scoring game!

    With the way Lester is pitching, and a few weeks to go before the deadline, I'm not sure we want to be trading away Aceves until a few questions are answered or at least we know a bit more about a few of our starters.

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Rather than being traded, Aceves might end up as part of the starting 5.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    So much for the high scoring game!

    With the way Lester is pitching, and a few weeks to go before the deadline, I'm not sure we want to be trading away Aceves until a few questions are answered or at least we know a bit more about a few of our starters.

    Sox4ever




    Have to be really concerned w/ what we've seen from Lester the past mos. Seems if he's not getting pitches on the corners early in the game, he gets frustrated, once frustrated he loses it completely. Seems to be more mental, than physical, his stuff while not ace like anymore still good enough to be a good 2-3 guy. If he doesn't turn it around shortly may need a DL stay to clear the mind more than anything. Lets hope Webster or pssibly even Raunado are ready for some prime time work after the all star break, they may be needed! 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    During the last 19 games, the Red Sox are 13-6 with a .303 BA, 24 homers, and averaging 6.3 runs per game.  

    The Red Sox bullpen has 12 saves so far this season.  The Dodgers, Cubs and D-Backs have 13 "blown" saves so far this season.   LOL

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The performance by Aceves last night is a prime example why recent small sample sizes are not good indicators of what to expect going forward.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Have to be really concerned w/ what we've seen from Lester the past mos. Seems if he's not getting pitches on the corners early in the game, he gets frustrated, once frustrated he loses it completely. Seems to be more mental, than physical, his stuff while not ace like anymore still good enough to be a good 2-3 guy. If he doesn't turn it around shortly may need a DL stay to clear the mind more than anything. Lets hope Webster or pssibly even Raunado are ready for some prime time work after the all star break, they may be needed! -garyhow

    I do think part of Lester's problems seem mental, but he has also lost velocity over the last couple of years. Injury-related? Perhaps.

    He was regularly over 95 mph before 2011.

    In 2011, he reached 95 or more in 15 starts and hit 94 or more in 22 times in 31 GS'd.

    In 2012, he touched 95 only 5 times and 94 or more 15 times in 33 GS'd.

    In 2013, he has touched 95 only 1 time in 14 starts and 94+ in just 7 of 14 starts.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA

     

    Sox4ever 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    A quick look at 2014...

    Here's how next year's budget looks (using average contract yearly salary):

    2014

    $16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    *$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout

    $7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)

    $6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $3.1M Breslow (then FA)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub Total: ~$81.5M without Lester (9 players)and $93M with Lester (10 players).

    Arbitrations:

    Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M

    Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M

    Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M

    Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)

    Iglesias (IFA signing) made $2M > $3M (?)

    Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M

    Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M

    Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M

    Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M

    Sub Total Arb estimate: $25M (9 players)

    Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K

    Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K

    Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K

    Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.

    Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)

    TOTAL : ~ $127M (35 players with Lester) / 115M (34 players with no Lester)

    That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)

    5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.

    40 man roster total: ~$130M with Lester/ $119M without Lester

    The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander BogaertsBryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer

     

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015). 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $134M without Lester

     

    $145M with Lester

     

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Curious as to why the chose a RHP day to rest Salty. The 13 inning game?

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Curious as to why the chose a RHP day to rest Salty. The 13 inning game?

    Sox4ever



    Plus we're facing a lot of right-handed starters in a row. 

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Toronto is starting to get hot.  Their hitters and starting rotation are starting to pick it up.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks too. 

    The AL East is going to get very tight. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:


    Toronto is starting to get hot.  Their hitters and starting rotation are starting to pick it up.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks too. 

    The AL East is going to get very tight. 



    Some interesting points about our AL opponents:

    TBR: 

    1) 4 games over .500 despite 3 of their 5 SP'ers with ERAs over .491 (Hellickson 5.67, Price 5.24 & Hernandez 4.91).

    2) Rodney has 5 blown saves and a 4.94 ERA.

    3) They are 4th in the AL in runs scored, but 1 run from 3rd & 5 runs from 2nd.

    4) They are 5th in team OPS in the AL.

     

    NYY:

    1) They are 11th out of 15 AL teams in OPS (.693).

    2) They are 11th in the AL in runs scored.

    3) 4th in ERA.

    4) 4th in WHIP (1.24).

    5) Only 2 of their top 11 players in PAs have an OPS over .801 (Garner .801 & Cano .875).

    6) 7 of their top 11 PA players have an OPS below .686 (Stewart .686, Wells .659, Youk .648, Suzuki .637, Nix .613, Adams .587, & Nunez .565)

     

    Baltimore:

    1) They have 2 guys with over 100 PAs and an OPS below .583

    2) Their top IP guy has an ERA or 5.24 (Jason Hammel).

    3) They have the 7th best WHIP at 1.33.

    4) They have the 11th best ERA- at 109.

    5) They are 2nd in runs scored behind Boston.

    6) They have the league's 2nd best OPS ay .777.

     

    Toronto:

    1) 6 of their top 10 guys with an OPS below .702 and 5 below .650.

    2) 4 guys with OBPs below .268 (2 below 237)

    3) All 5 starting pitchers have an ERA above 4.90!

    4) All 5 SP'ers have a WHIP above 1.364 and 3 above 1.491!

    5) 8th best OPS at .727

    6) 9th in runs.

    7) 10th in ERA- at 108

    8) 12th in WHIP at 1.38

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sox players splits:

    vs RHPs:

    Ortiz  1.186

    Carp   1.089

    Iggy   1.036

    Salty    .927

    Nava    .914

    Napoli  .861

    Pedey  .780

    Ellsb    .771

    Drew   .715

    Vict     .708

    Ross    .670

    Midd    .592

    Gomes .520

     

    vs LHPs:

    Iggy    1.135

    Pedey 1.038

    Carp      .833

    Gomes  .770

    Ortiz     .732

    Ross     .728

    Nava    .725

    Midd    .719

    Napoli .700

    Ellsb   .669

    Drew .627

    Vict     .619

    Salty  .575 

     

    Home:

    Carp   1.100

    Salty   1.026

    Pedey  1.010

    Iggy       .977

    Ortiz      .957

    Nava     .872

    Drew    .796

    Napoli  .783

    Vict      .730

    Ellsb    .691

    Ross    .646

    Midd    .560

    Gomes .557

     

    Away:

    Iggy   1.167

    Ortiz  1.057

    Carp     .998

    Nava    .847

    Napoli .847

    Ross    .783

    Ellsb    .777

    Gomes .758

    Pedey  .704

    Midd     .689

    Salty    .656

    Vict      .645

    Drew   .550

    Ciriaco .411 (He's going to miss Fenway .912.)

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Big win today. Carp is really looking like the real deal.

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Big win today. Carp is really looking like the real deal.

    Sox4ever




    Good morning moonslav59    :)

    I agree with you--Carp is really looking like the real deal.  Thank you Seattle.   LOL

    Speaking of the real deal, I am starting to believe that the Blue Jays are going to inch closer to the AL East race.  They have the 3rd best winning percentage (.591) since May 11.  Buehrle has an ERA of 2.54 during his last seven outings.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks. 

    Once they get back to .500 (six games under), all they need is a hot streak and they will be striking distance of first place.

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Big win today. Carp is really looking like the real deal.

    Sox4ever

     




    Good morning moonslav59    :)

     

    I agree with you--Carp is really looking like the real deal.  Thank you Seattle.   LOL

    Speaking of the real deal, I am starting to believe that the Blue Jays are going to inch closer to the AL East race.  They have the 3rd best winning percentage (.591) since May 11.  Buehrle has an ERA of 2.54 during his last seven outings.  Reyes will be back in a couple of weeks. 

    Once they get back to .500 (six games under), all they need is a hot streak and they will be striking distance of first place.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Baltimore is looking tough as well, and as always, I never believe that TB "will fade away in the dogdays of summer" (although possibly losing Cobb will hurt).

    The thing about the Jays that jumps out at me is this:

     

    Starter ERAs:

    Buehrle  4.66

    Dickey   4.90

    Happ      4.91

    Johnson 5.40

    Morrow  5.63

     

    4 weak offensive positions:

    C: .655

    3b: .661

    SS: .687 (will improve if reyes returns and stays healthy... big if)

    LF: .699

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II


    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    Toronto's starting rotation has been a disappointment so far.  Their former ace (Romero) is still in AAA and they picked up former Yankee, Chien-Ming Wang who got the win tonight vs. the Rangers.

    Tampa Bay's starting rotation has been struggling too.  I am surprised with their strong offense so far. 

    The AL East is going to get more tight as the season goes on. 

     

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Wil Myers Tuesday in Boston!




    Hello BurritoT  Laughing

    The Royals gave up a very good prospect (Myers) for Shields. 

    The Angels have Trout, the O's have Machado, the Red Sox have Iggy (and Nava) and let's see if Myers will be the next star.  

     

     

     

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