A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Wil Myers Tuesday in Boston!

     




    Hello BurritoT  Laughing

     

    The Royals gave up a very good prospect (Myers) for Shields. 

    The Angels have Trout, the O's have Machado, the Red Sox have Iggy (and Nava) and let's see if Myers will be the next star.  

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The Royals also got Wade Davis in the deal, and the Rays got some other nice prospects besides Myers:

    Mike Montgomery (Rated #8 now in TB)

    Patrick Leonard (Rated #20 in TB)

    Jake Odorizzi (Rated the Rays #3 prospect now)

     

    I think KC would have taken Lester straight up for just Myers. Those other 3 prospects are good... better than Wade Davis good.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon: I appreciate your previous payroll / luxury cap analysis, but could you spell it out for me as to how much the Sox have left for 2014 with / without Lester? Assume nothing is obvioius. Thanks.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Moon: I appreciate your previous payroll / luxury cap analysis, but could you spell it out for me as to how much the Sox have left for 2014 with / without Lester? Assume nothing is obvioius. Thanks.



    $134M without Lester

     

    $145M with Lester

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

    The luxury tax limit next year is $189M.

     

    That leaves us $55M to spend without Lester.

     

    That leaves us with $44M to spend with Lester.

     

    We will have some gaps to fill in...

    C ________  Ross. lava, vazquez

    1B _______ Carp, Papi DH), Almanzar, Shaw

    2B Pedey, Holt, Coyle

    3B Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Cecchini

    SS Iglesias, marrero, Lin, Vinicio

    LF Nava, Gomes

    CF ______  Bradley

    RF Victorino, Brentz

    SP Buch, _____ or Lester, Lackey, Dempster, _______ or Doubront

           Aceves, Webster, de la Rosa. Ranaudo, Britton, Owens...

    RP Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, ______, Miller, Mortensen, de la Torre, Wilson, ....

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Moon: Thanks.

    I went to Cots contracts  and I'm having trouble sorting some stuff out.

    How long is Vazquez under team control? For some reason I haven't found the right page for the answer either there or at Baseball-Reference.

    Ross is signed thru 2014; Lavarnway thru 2018; Middlebrooks 2018, etc.

    So I'm a bit confused that some of these names show up on the list of holes to fill.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Moon: Thanks.

    I went to Cots contracts  and I'm having trouble sorting some stuff out.

    How long is Vazquez under team control? For some reason I haven't found the right page for the answer either there or at Baseball-Reference.

    Ross is signed thru 2014; Lavarnway thru 2018; Middlebrooks 2018, etc.

    So I'm a bit confused that some of these names show up on the list of holes to fill.




    Vasquez hasnt even started his MLB clock yet, so he'll have 6 years once he comes up. So lets say he starts next year. He wouldbr become a FA until after the 2019 season. after 2020 if he doesnt start until 2015. He was an International FA, so Im not so sure all the smae rules apply, but hes here for a while.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Soxprospects has Vasquez on the 40 man roster already, so I thought that meant something.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

    I guess the blank lines in this graph have something to do with players that have options remaining ...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Soxprospects has Vasquez on the 40 man roster already, so I thought that meant something.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

    I guess the blank lines in this graph have something to do with players that have options remaining ...



    I'm not an expert on this, but I do not think the clock starts until the player reaches MLB, so I think Vazquez has 6 years from the year he makes it to MLB. I also think a September call-up does not count as starting the clock.

    Maybe someone else knows more.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here is our upcoming schedule (to the trade deadline):

    3 TB

    4 @ Det

    2 Col

    4 Tor

    3 SD

    3 @ LAA

    4 @ Sea

    3 @ Oak

      AS Break

    3 NYY

    4 TBR

    3 @ Bal

    2 Sea

    Trade deadline

    1 more vs Sea, 3 AZ then a 10 game road trip (Hou, KC, Tor)

     

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Sox splits:

    vs RHPs:

    Ortiz 1.138

    Carp  1.112

    Iggy   .998

    Salty   .913

    Nava  .894

    Naps  .861

    Pede .763

    Ells    .762

    Drew .717

    Vict   .698

    Ross .603

    Midd  .598

    Gom  .582

     

    vs LHPs

    Iggy  1.139

    Pede 1.025

    Carp    .779

    Gomes .760

    Ross    .728

    Midd   .719

    Nava  .714

    Ortiz  .714

    Naps  .700

    Ells    .656

    Vict   .644 

    Drew .598

    Salty .552

     

    Looking at these numbers and past trends for some of these players, it seems pretty clear that... (For the most part, Farrell has followed most of these guidlines.)

    1) Salty should start all games vs RHPs (.913>.603) and Ross vs LHPs (.728> .552).

    2) Drew should not start vs LHPs (.598), since both Iggy (1.139) and Middy (.719) are way better.

    3) Gomes should not start vs RHPs (.582) and to some extent neither should Victorino (.698).

    4) While nava is doing better than Victorino vs LHPs so far this year, Shane has been one of the leagues best hitters vs lefties in recent years, so I would expect SV and Gomes to play instead of Nava soon. (Ellsbury vs LHPs needs to be monitored as well.)

    5) Napoli is struggling vs LHPs, but he usually does very well vs them.

    6) Papi hit lefties really well last year and to start this year, but he had shown issues vs LHPs for over 2 years prior to 2012. His current .714 mark vs LHPs is very worrisome. 

     

    Home:

    Carp  1.100

    Salty 1.026

    Pede 1.010

    Iggy    .977

    Ortiz   .957

    Nava  .872

    Drew  .796

    Naps  .783

    Vict   .730

    Ells   .691

    Ross .646

    Midd .560

    Gomes .557

     

    Away:

    Iggy  1.101

    Carp  1.031

    Ortiz   .987

    Naps   .847

    Nava  .814

    Gomes .775

    Ells    .754

    Ross  .704

    Midd  .691

    Pede .680

    Vict  .646

    Salty .637

    Drew .542

     

    Note: Salty should think long and hard about signing some where else.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!



    True, but his road numbers kill us at times. I'd like more balance, but Salty is probably best suited for the Sox.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here are the positional splits of Sox players since 2011 and their rankings (700+ PAs unless otherwise noted):

    Vs RHPs:

     

    Catcher (500+ PAs 28):

    8) Salty    .807

     

    1st Base (34):

    4) Napoli  .931

     

    2nd Base (26):

    8) Pedroia  .784

     

    3rd Base (300+ PAs 62):

    29) Middlebrooks .711

     

    Short Stop (110+ PAs 82):

    15) Drew   .715 (12th among 28 SSs with 600+ PAs)

    19) Iggy    .696

     

    Outfield (400+ PAs 137):

    15) Ellsbury  .860  (13th out of 77 with 700+ PAs)

    23) Nava       .842

    45) Carp        .797

    94) Victorino .705 (65th out of 77 with 700+ PAs)

     

    Vs LHPs (300+ PAs unless otherwise noted):

     

    Catcher (180+ PAs 34):

    23) D Ross   .686

    32) Salty      .582 (only 2 MLB catchers are worse: Mathis & Hundley)

    122) Gomes  .661

     

    1st Base (29):

    15) Napoli    .836

     

    2nd Base (29):

    1) Pedroia    .951 (63 points ahead of #2 Kinsler)

     

    Third Base (160+ PAs 52):

    16) Middlebrooks   .832

     

    Short Stop (60+ PAs 77):

    4) Iggy     .868

    56) Drew  .612 (27th out of 29 with 250+ PAs)

     

    Outfield (75):

    9) Victorino  .910

    11) Gomes   .897 (C. Ross is .895)

    51) Ellsbury .745

    ** Nava 108th out of 115 with 200+ PAs: .655

    ** Carp 46th out of 137 with 150+ PAs: .800

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Let's hope we are catching the Tigers on a downswing and not a turnaround situation.

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I like stats too, but this year I think the Sox have an extra dimension, call it team chemistry, that keeps them winning games. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    I like stats too, but this year I think the Sox have an extra dimension, call it team chemistry, that keeps them winning games. 




    Absolutely!  You can't put a number on personality, attitude, and desire to win.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I've never been a big believer in chemistry being a major factor in winning or losing, but how else can you explain a team like the the Cardinal's continuing succces?

    The Sox certainly have better chemistry than recent years, but we haven't really been tested so far this year. The true measure of good chemistry, is how the team handles adversity or a losing stretch.

    I hope we never have to get tested, but my guess is, we will have a rough patch or two before this season is over.

    I can't believe we are nearly at the halfway point and have the best record in the AL.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Here's an interesting take on the newly rated Sox top 10 prospects:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/28488/soxprospects-top-10-strongest-since-07

     

    ESPN seems to think our farm is weak beyond the top 10.  I disagree.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!

     



    True, but his road numbers kill us at times. I'd like more balance, but Salty is probably best suited for the Sox.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    He might be a good fit in Houston!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever



    I think if looked at as a snapshot in time it's even better. We didn't know how guys like Buchholz would turn out but we don't know where these guys end up either. Imagine that there are lots of guys not even on that list like Workman who would be top 5 for a lot of teams.  

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    Those numbers might sway the Redsox some also!

     

     

     



    True, but his road numbers kill us at times. I'd like more balance, but Salty is probably best suited for the Sox.

     

     

     

     

     



    He might be a good fit in Houston!

     

     

     




    Since Jason Castro is there and doing a fine job for next to nothing and a lst place team having no need for a 2 month rental, I highly doubt it. But yeah, keep trying to get rid of our starting catcher for no good reason. Your dislike for Salty is obviouslt clouding your common sense and judgement.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Toronto is getting hot.

    • 8-game winning streak
    • Bullpen has pitched 24 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run
    • Cecil has retired 38 batters without allowing a hit
    • Buehrle has a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts.

    Toronto's next ten games are against division opponents (they face the O's tonight).

    The AL East is going to get more tight (thanks to Bailey).  

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    Toronto is getting hot.

    • 8-game winning streak
    • Bullpen has pitched 24 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run
    • Cecil has retired 38 batters without allowing a hit
    • Buehrle has a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts.

    Toronto's next ten games are against division opponents (they face the O's tonight).

    The AL East is going to get more tight (thanks to Bailey).  

     

     



    The O's have been playing very well too. I'm glad the Jays and O's play now- one has to lose!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Toronto is getting hot.

    • 8-game winning streak
    • Bullpen has pitched 24 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run
    • Cecil has retired 38 batters without allowing a hit
    • Buehrle has a 2.13 ERA over his last six starts.

    Toronto's next ten games are against division opponents (they face the O's tonight).

    The AL East is going to get more tight (thanks to Bailey).  

     

     

     



    The O's have been playing very well too. I'm glad the Jays and O's play now- one has to lose!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good morning moonslav59   Laughing

    I agree with you.  I hope that Toronto wins two out of three vs. the O's (since the O's are tied in the loss column with the Red Sox).  

    Or I hope both teams play three, 15-inning games so that their bullpens get depleted.  LOL

    I also enjoy seeing the Rays playing the Yankees.  Like you said, "One has to lose."   Cool

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    ESPN rates out top 10 (Iggy is no longer a prospect):

    1) Bogaerts

    2) Bradley

    3) Webster

    4) Cecchini

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) de la Rosa

    8) Trey Ball

    9) Owens

    10) Swihart

    Strongest top 10 "since 2007".

     

    Sox4ever

     



    I think if looked at as a snapshot in time it's even better. We didn't know how guys like Buchholz would turn out but we don't know where these guys end up either. Imagine that there are lots of guys not even on that list like Workman who would be top 5 for a lot of teams.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree. I think it was pretty lame of ESPN to call our prospects below the top 10 as the weakest in recent years.

    soxprospects has this for the rest of the top 40...

    11) Brentz

    12) Workman

    13) Marrero

    14) Britton

    15) Wilson

    16) B Johnson

    17) Almanzar (from #47)

    18) Vazquez (from #25)

    19) Coyle (from #27)

    20) Margot

    21) Montas

    22) Betts (from #53)

    23) Hazelbaker (from #33)

    24) de la Cruz

    25) Jacobs

    26) T-W Lin

    27) Buttrey

    28) Callahan

    29) Mercedes

    30) Holt

    31) de la Torred

    32) Hassan

    33) C Martin

    34) Huntzinger

    35 Ramos

    36) Light

    37) Kukuk

    38) Vinicio

    39) C Hernandez

    40) T Shaw

    I could see several players from these 30 making it to be a significant MLB player. I think this is as deep as we've been in a long time. We may be adding new signees to this list as well.

     

     

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