A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon, when I looked at your pitching stats above, what was so shocking was my concept that Bard had a "terrible" year, yet when you look at those above, he didn't look so bad in comparison.  It would be hard to imagine that we couldn't improve on those numbers.  I'm excited by what seems a good relationship between our new manager and pitching coach and the progress in ST.  Even Boom is coming around on CERA...first day of spring, lots to be enthused about...



    I was never for making a proven great set-up man a starter. I was for making him the closer, but we'll never know how that might have worked out.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    I would agree with your statement if it was the same team. Unfortunately we were fielding a AAA team for the better part of 2 months to finish the season. sitting the regulars that were healthy in favor of rookies or scrubs.

     True, but that was actually the base team from which we had to improve on... a team much worse than the 69 win record indicated. A team with Ellsbury playing on.

    I know the injuries to Papi and Middlebrooks hurt badly, but we had a long way to go to get from where we were last year to ring contenders, and we did not close that gap fully. I never expected us to either, but I did expect signings or trades geared towards improving us in 2014, 2015, and hopefully beyond. I don't see any deal that did that after the Dodger trade.

     

    We had one starter who threw the most inning in his career hit a wall and were filling in the 4 & 5  slots with guys like Dice-K (who didnt even cut it in Cleveland) and Aaron Cook. So basically we had no regular 3-5 pitchers.

    That is our big area of possible improvement for sure.

     

    Add in the BV factor and all the internal issues which are far removed this year as well.

    Sorry, its not nearly the same team this year. You cant really compare the two IMO. Im not saying this team is a WS caliber team, but they are a lot better than some people he will give them credit for. Maybe some are just afraid of getting their hopes up and being let down again, which is understandable.

    That's why I prefer to compare our team expectation last March (assuming normal health) to right now. I'm not more confident, and I didn't think we'd win it all last year was the starting point.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I also feel that using last year's team as a baseline is not useful.  But I do feel that a projection of around 84 wins for this team is reasonable.  As we all know, pre-season projections in baseball can be off by plenty.  I could see 84 turning to 90 if a lot goes right, and to 78 if a lot goes wrong.   



    Agreed, but either way, if we make the playoffs, I see very little chance of advancing to even the AL championship round.

    I get the "crapshoot" argument, but I'm not a firm believer in our starting rotation's ability to help us advance.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    After two very disappointing seasons, although one was still a 90 win season, this team has earned some degree of cynicism. But after watching this team for the past five weeks, fifteen games and a couple workouts, I am convinced that this team will at the very least win more than they lose. For those of you who are too young to remember, that is what Dick Williams predicted in 1967 when he inherited a next-to-last place team that is now most responsible for creating the Red Sox nation as we now know it. They took advantage of a season without a super team, unfortunately except for the Cardinals in the NL, to win a very close pennant race. I am not ready to declare that this team will win a pennant this year, but I have seen a lot of the AL East teams, they're all here in Florida, and no one is going to run away with the division just as no one is going to be blown away and left behind. Every team in the division could win the division or finish last in the division, that's the way I see it. 

    The key word from many of the posts on this thread is "IF"! If Lester, if, Buch, if Lackey, if, Doubie, if Dempster, if Papi and so on. Not all of these lf's are going to have a positive outcome. I haven't seen Ortiz yet so I can't be too optimistic about him. But I can tell you that there is an energy here. It starts with the starters who have been working quickly, pounding the strike zone, and for the most part getting great results. Pedroia, Gomes, Napoli, Salty and Victorino are competitive veterans who hustle, who care, and who appear to be leading by example. The bullpen looks outstanding! And the defense looks at times, spectacular. Finally the kids; before this eason is over we will see very meaningful performances from Iglesias, Bradley Jr., Webster, Ciriaco, Holt, and one of either Linares of Hazelbaker. There is a ton of talent waiting in the wings.  

    It should be a fun ride! 



    I agree. I can't wait to watch the games. Opening Day is the best day of the year, especially when we win.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

     

    http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/21/4120960/rick-porcellos-true-trade-value-and-what-we-should-reasonably-expect

     

    Good read moon

     




    Good article Burr...Thanks for posting.

     

    Personally, I would trade Ells for Porcello and put JBJ in CF...Not sure the Tigers would go for it though. maybe have to throw in a lower level prospect as well...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    It might only take 88 to win the East. Amazing how fast the East has fallen.

    However, a quick exit awaits the winner.



    Writing off the Blue Jays?  Their rotation could be pretty good.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    It might only take 88 to win the East. Amazing how fast the East has fallen.

     

    However, a quick exit awaits the winner.

     



    Writing off the Blue Jays?  Their rotation could be pretty good.

     




    This division is so up in the air that you could put all the teams names in a hat and pick. Chances are just as good for every team in the ALE this year IMO...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/21/4120960/rick-porcellos-true-trade-value-and-what-we-should-reasonably-expect

     

    Good read moon



    I'd make this deal. 3 years for 1 is nice.

    It won't happen. Ben likes the starting 5 already.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    It might only take 88 to win the East. Amazing how fast the East has fallen.

     

    However, a quick exit awaits the winner.

     



    Writing off the Blue Jays?  Their rotation could be pretty good.

     



    The Jays might win 88. They could win more, but I think the AL east winner might win just 88-90 games. One could pull away, but which one?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    After two very disappointing seasons, although one was still a 90 win season, this team has earned some degree of cynicism. But after watching this team for the past five weeks, fifteen games and a couple workouts, I am convinced that this team will at the very least win more than they lose. For those of you who are too young to remember, that is what Dick Williams predicted in 1967 when he inherited a next-to-last place team that is now most responsible for creating the Red Sox nation as we now know it. They took advantage of a season without a super team, unfortunately except for the Cardinals in the NL, to win a very close pennant race. I am not ready to declare that this team will win a pennant this year, but I have seen a lot of the AL East teams, they're all here in Florida, and no one is going to run away with the division just as no one is going to be blown away and left behind. Every team in the division could win the division or finish last in the division, that's the way I see it. 

    The key word from many of the posts on this thread is "IF"! If Lester, if, Buch, if Lackey, if, Doubie, if Dempster, if Papi and so on. Not all of these lf's are going to have a positive outcome. I haven't seen Ortiz yet so I can't be too optimistic about him. But I can tell you that there is an energy here. It starts with the starters who have been working quickly, pounding the strike zone, and for the most part getting great results. Pedroia, Gomes, Napoli, Salty and Victorino are competitive veterans who hustle, who care, and who appear to be leading by example. The bullpen looks outstanding! And the defense looks at times, spectacular. Finally the kids; before this eason is over we will see very meaningful performances from Iglesias, Bradley Jr., Webster, Ciriaco, Holt, and one of either Linares of Hazelbaker. There is a ton of talent waiting in the wings.  

    It should be a fun ride! 




    I'm not sure the Cards were a great team in 67 either. Unfortunately for the Red Sox they did have one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    After two very disappointing seasons, although one was still a 90 win season, this team has earned some degree of cynicism. But after watching this team for the past five weeks, fifteen games and a couple workouts, I am convinced that this team will at the very least win more than they lose. For those of you who are too young to remember, that is what Dick Williams predicted in 1967 when he inherited a next-to-last place team that is now most responsible for creating the Red Sox nation as we now know it. They took advantage of a season without a super team, unfortunately except for the Cardinals in the NL, to win a very close pennant race. I am not ready to declare that this team will win a pennant this year, but I have seen a lot of the AL East teams, they're all here in Florida, and no one is going to run away with the division just as no one is going to be blown away and left behind. Every team in the division could win the division or finish last in the division, that's the way I see it. 

    The key word from many of the posts on this thread is "IF"! If Lester, if, Buch, if Lackey, if, Doubie, if Dempster, if Papi and so on. Not all of these lf's are going to have a positive outcome. I haven't seen Ortiz yet so I can't be too optimistic about him. But I can tell you that there is an energy here. It starts with the starters who have been working quickly, pounding the strike zone, and for the most part getting great results. Pedroia, Gomes, Napoli, Salty and Victorino are competitive veterans who hustle, who care, and who appear to be leading by example. The bullpen looks outstanding! And the defense looks at times, spectacular. Finally the kids; before this eason is over we will see very meaningful performances from Iglesias, Bradley Jr., Webster, Ciriaco, Holt, and one of either Linares of Hazelbaker. There is a ton of talent waiting in the wings.  

    It should be a fun ride! 

     




    I'm not sure the Cards were a great team in 67 either. Unfortunately for the Red Sox they did have one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived.

     



    Shows how much great pitching is usually the difference maker.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to UnionFallsNY's comment:

    Lonborg wasn't that bad neither. Too bad that he got injured skiing the following winter.




    He wasn't Gibson though. If I recall correctly, Gibson won 3 games in that World Series.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to UnionFallsNY's comment:

     

    Lonborg wasn't that bad neither. Too bad that he got injured skiing the following winter.

     




    He wasn't Gibson though. If I recall correctly, Gibson won 3 games in that World Series.

     



    Yes, including game 7 where he also homered.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    The Cardinals were pretty solid with Brock, Maris, Cepeda, Flood, McCarver, but that guy on the mound was something very special.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Tonight's report from the fort...

    A very entertaining game with great pitching again. Lackey gave up a soft run in the first on a ground single, stolen base, bloop hit and a groundout making up the "rally". He pounded the strike zone again and had some very quick innings. Middlebrooks made a very nice play on a bunt and the rest of the defense was very good after the bloop fell in front of Gomes. Uhera, Miller, Hanrahan, Bailey and Carter were close to perfect.

    The offense wasn't great but did put together a five-run inning which featured a bases loaded triple by Victorino that was gift-wrapped by the Philly rightfielder who obviously thought Victorino threw a grenade out to right so he did everything in his power to avoid it. Pedey had two solid hits and was on base three times. Iggy dropped a perfect bunt single and lined out hard to center another time up. He should have had a bunt single the other day except for an outstanding play by Longoria. That could be a great addition to his game.

    I spent some time tonight talking to a couple from Portland Maine who are season ticket holders for the Sea Dogs. Their favorite player is Hazelbaker who they said could do anything and play all three outfield positions. They were also convinced that Bradley was going to be rookie of the year. The irony is that neither player played tonight. 

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    Jid, you should be on the front page of the sports section.

    Sounds like Iggy has had some hard luck getting his scorchers to fall for hits. It makes me wonder if 10 of them fell in as bloopers for hits, how many more posters would be calling for him to be our wire-to-wire SS this season.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to jidgef's comment:

     

    After two very disappointing seasons, although one was still a 90 win season, this team has earned some degree of cynicism. But after watching this team for the past five weeks, fifteen games and a couple workouts, I am convinced that this team will at the very least win more than they lose. For those of you who are too young to remember, that is what Dick Williams predicted in 1967 when he inherited a next-to-last place team that is now most responsible for creating the Red Sox nation as we now know it. They took advantage of a season without a super team, unfortunately except for the Cardinals in the NL, to win a very close pennant race. I am not ready to declare that this team will win a pennant this year, but I have seen a lot of the AL East teams, they're all here in Florida, and no one is going to run away with the division just as no one is going to be blown away and left behind. Every team in the division could win the division or finish last in the division, that's the way I see it. 

    The key word from many of the posts on this thread is "IF"! If Lester, if, Buch, if Lackey, if, Doubie, if Dempster, if Papi and so on. Not all of these lf's are going to have a positive outcome. I haven't seen Ortiz yet so I can't be too optimistic about him. But I can tell you that there is an energy here. It starts with the starters who have been working quickly, pounding the strike zone, and for the most part getting great results. Pedroia, Gomes, Napoli, Salty and Victorino are competitive veterans who hustle, who care, and who appear to be leading by example. The bullpen looks outstanding! And the defense looks at times, spectacular. Finally the kids; before this eason is over we will see very meaningful performances from Iglesias, Bradley Jr., Webster, Ciriaco, Holt, and one of either Linares of Hazelbaker. There is a ton of talent waiting in the wings.  

    It should be a fun ride! 

     




    I'm not sure the Cards were a great team in 67 either. Unfortunately for the Red Sox they did have one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived.

     



    What that ear proved is that sometimes all ou need is one great pitcher to win sometimes. Lonborg and az were enough to get them over the top and into the WS. We had a lot of other plaers step up that ear of course but If a Buchholz wins 20 and Ells repeats 2011 we have a real shot right there in this division.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Jid, you should be on the front page of the sports section.

    Sounds like Iggy has had some hard luck getting his scorchers to fall for hits. It makes me wonder if 10 of them fell in as bloopers for hits, how many more posters would be calling for him to be our wire-to-wire SS this season.



    Moon, he's hitting around .220, but he's hit at least seven or eight shots that could easily have been hits. Now you're talking closer to .300 with the small number of spring training at bats. I'm not naive enough to think he could hit .300, but .230-.250 with a few wall balls mixed in with some timely sacrifices, and that spectacular D, you have your every day shortstop. I keep going back to Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, neither of whom could hit when they started their careers, but both of them learned at the MLB level to be at least respectable hitters. After all, one's in the HOF and the other would get my vote to get in when eligible.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Jid, you should be on the front page of the sports section.

    Sounds like Iggy has had some hard luck getting his scorchers to fall for hits. It makes me wonder if 10 of them fell in as bloopers for hits, how many more posters would be calling for him to be our wire-to-wire SS this season.

     



    Moon, he's hitting around .220, but he's hit at least seven or eight shots that could easily have been hits. Now you're talking closer to .300 with the small number of spring training at bats. I'm not naive enough to think he could hit .300, but .230-.250 with a few wall balls mixed in with some timely sacrifices, and that spectacular D, you have your every day shortstop. I keep going back to Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, neither of whom could hit when they started their careers, but both of them learned at the MLB level to be at least respectable hitters. After all, one's in the HOF and the other would get my vote to get in when eligible.

     




    Exactly. I don't see him hitting .300 either, but had those hits fallen this spring, I think we might be hearing a different tune from some of the small sample influenced judges.

    I never wish any harm to any player, but I'm glad Iggy might get a look to start the season.

     

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